Complexities in Hindcasting Models—When Should We Say Enough Is Enough?

Groundwater models are routinely used in hindcasting applications to predict the past concentration levels in contaminated aquifers. These predictions are used in risk assessment and epidemiological studies, which are often completed either for resolving a court case or for developing a public‐policy solution. Hindcast groundwater modeling studies utilize a variety of computer tools with complexity levels ranging from simple analytical models to detailed three‐dimensional, multiphase, multispecies, reactive transport models. The aim of this study is to explore the value of using complex reactive transport models in hindcasting studies that have limited historic data. I review a chlorinated solvent exposure problem that occurred at a U.S. Marine Corp Base in Camp Lejeune, North Carolina and use it as an example to discuss the limits of hindcasting modeling exercises. The lessons learned from the study are used to reflect upon the following questions related to model complexity: How should we decide how much is enough? Who should decide when enough is enough?     

Is the Tibetan Plateau really a water tower?

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is widely known as the ‘Asian Water Tower’, due to its role in providing fresh water to downstream Asian countries. Based on the runoff data of large river basins on the TP, the weighted average proportion of the TP runoff is approximately 18% (ranging from 6% to 49%) for all the rivers. We argue that the name ‘Water Tower’ is an inappropriate and misleading perception of the TP, and such misperception would influence policy-making processes and diplomatic activities. We therefore call for correcting the misunderstanding and an ensuring accurate understanding of the TP and its role in water supply for downstream countries. We propose using the term “Towering Asian Spring” instead of “Asian Water Tower” to better illustrate the role of the TP in water supply: while it serves as the source of several major rivers in Asia, its contribution to the overall water supply is relatively limited.     

Is Earthquake Seismology a Hard, Quantitative Science?

—Our purpose is to analyze the causes of recent failures in earthquake forecasting, as well as the difficulties in earthquake investigation. We then propose that more rigorous methods are necessary in earthquake seismology research. First, we discuss the failures of direct earthquake forecasts and the poor quantitative predictive power of theoretical and computer simulation methods in explaining earthquakes. These failures are due to the immense complexity of earthquake rupture phenomena and lack of rigor in the empirical analysis of seismicity. Given such conditions, neither "holistic," interdisciplinary analysis of geophysical data nor greater reliance on the currently available results of earthquake physics is likely to work without revising scientific methodology. We need to develop more rigorous procedures for testing proposed patterns of earthquake occurrence and comparing them to predictions of theoretical and computer modeling. These procedures should use methods designed in physics and other sciences to formulate hypotheses and carry out objective validation. Since earth sciences study a unique object, new methods should be designed to obtain reliable and reproducible results. It is likely that the application of sophisticated statistical methods will be needed.     

Is there a first-order discontinuity in the lowermost mantle?

In 1983, Lay and Helmberger [Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 75 (1983) 799–837] reported the detection of a precursor to the seismic phase ScS. They attributed this precursor to a sharp seismic discontinuity located several hundred kilometers above the core–mantle boundary. Such a lowermost mantle discontinuity implies the existence of a sharp phase change or a chemical boundary. Precursors to ScS and, less frequently, PcP have since been observed in numerous locations, but are not a global phenomenon. Frequently, PcP precursors are weak or absent when ScS precursors are observed in the same location, and vice versa. There can be significant variations in the amplitude and arrival time of the precursor relative to the main phase. The presence or absence of these precursors has led to speculations about the nature of the lowermost mantle. Here we demonstrate that ScS or PcP precursors may be produced by gradients in seismic wave speed associated with large-scale lowermost mantle heterogeneity. Rather than a phase or chemical boundary with substantial topography, such gradients require lateral variations in temperature and, close to the core–mantle boundary, composition.     

Is there a superior conceptual groundwater model structure for baseflow simulation?

Previous work has shown that streamflow response during baseflow conditions is a function of storage, but also that this functional relationship varies among seasons and catchments. Traditionally, hydrological models incorporate conceptual groundwater models consisting of linear or non‐linear storage–outflow functions. Identification of the right model structure and model parameterization however is challenging. The aim of this paper is to systematically test different model structures in a set of catchments where different aquifer types govern baseflow generation processes. Nine different two‐parameter conceptual groundwater models are applied with multi‐objective calibration to transform two different groundwater recharge series derived from a soil‐atmosphere‐vegetation transfer model into baseflow separated from streamflow data. The relative performance differences of the model structures allow to systematically improve the understanding of baseflow generation processes and to identify most appropriate model structures for different aquifer types. We found more versatile and more aquifer‐specific optimal model structures and elucidate the role of interflow, flow paths, recharge regimes and partially contributing storages. Aquifer‐specific recommendations of storage models were found for fractured and karstic aquifers, whereas large storage capacities blur the identification of superior model structures for complex and porous aquifers. A model performance matrix is presented, which highlights the joint effects of different recharge inputs, calibration criteria, model structures and aquifer types. The matrix is a guidance to improve groundwater model structures towards their representation of the dominant baseflow generation processes of specific aquifer types. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is radiomagnetization possible?

Резюме Дискутирована возможность, возникаетли под влиянием действия γ-облучения и постоянного магнитного поля на ферромагнитные вещества новыИ вид намагниченности, т. н. радионамагниченность. Приведеннее рассуждение частично обосновано экспериментами выполненнычi БродскоИ, которая лабораторным образом проверила некоторые изменения магнитных свойств минералов под влиянием γ-облучения. Остается пока необБясненным вопрос, если специфичные магнитные свойства верхнепалеозойских горных пород не были обусловлены интенсивным (или долговременным) воздействием γ-облучения при совместном воздействии геомагнитного поля.      

Global Climate Change — the Latest Assessment: Does Global Warming Warrant a Health Warning?

Global climate change is a qualitatively distinct, and very significant, addition to the spectrum of environmental health hazards encountered by humankind. Historically, environmental health concerns have focused on toxicological or microbiological risks to health from local exposures. However, the scale of environmental health hazards is today increasing; indeed, the burgeoning human impact on the environment has begun to alter global biophysical systems (such as the climate system). As a consequence, a range of larger-scale environmental hazards to human population health has emerged. This includes the health risks posed by climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, loss of biodiversity, stresses on terrestrial and ocean food-producing systems, changes in hydrological systems and the supplies of freshwater, and the global spread of persistent organic pollutants. Appreciation of this scale and type of influence on human health entails an ecological perspective — a perspective that recognises that the foundations of long-term good health in populations reside in the continued stability and functioning of the biosphere's "life-supporting" ecological and physical systems. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Probabilistic seismic performance and loss assessment of a bridge–foundation–soil system

This paper presents the probabilistic seismic performance and loss assessment of an actual bridge–foundation–soil system, the Fitzgerald Avenue twin bridges in Christchurch, New Zealand. A two-dimensional finite element model of the longitudinal direction of the system is modelled using advanced soil and structural constitutive models. Ground motions at multiple levels of intensity are selected based on the seismic hazard deaggregation at the site. Based on rigorous examination of several deterministic analyses, engineering demand parameters (EDP's), which capture the global and local demand, and consequent damage to the bridge and foundation are determined. A probabilistic seismic loss assessment of the structure considering both direct repair and loss of functionality consequences was performed to holistically assess the seismic risk of the system.It was found that the non-horizontal stratification of the soils, liquefaction, and soil–structure interaction had pronounced effects on the seismic demand distribution of the bridge components, of which the north abutment piles and central pier were critical in the systems seismic performance. The consequences due to loss of functionality of the bridge during repair were significantly larger than the direct repair costs, with over a 2% in 50 year probability of the total loss exceeding twice the book-value of the structure.     

Preliminary Study on Probabilistic Prediction of Seismic Hazard in a Period of 10 Years

Many uncertainty factors need be dealt with in the prediction of seismic hazard for a 10-year period.Restricted by these uncertainties,the result of prediction is also uncertain to a certain extent,so the probabilistic analysis method of seismic hazard should be adopted.In consideration of the inhomogeneity of the time,location,and magnitude of future earthquakes and the probabilistic combination of the background of long-term seismic hazard(geology,geophysical field,etc.)and the precursors of earthquake occurrence,a model of probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 years s proposed.Considering the inhomogeneity of data and earthquake precursors for different regions in China,a simplified model is also proposed in order to satisfy the needs of different regions around the country.A trial in North China is used to discuss the application of the model.The method proposed in this paper can be used in the probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 years.According to the     

Is rocking motion predictable?

An argument of engineers and researchers against the use of rocking as a seismic response modification technique is that the rocking motion of a structure is chaotic and the existing models are incapable of predicting it well. This argument is supported by the documented inability of rocking models to predict the motion of a specimen excited by a single ground motion. A statistical comparison of the experimental and the numerical responses of a rigid rocking oscillator not to a specific ground motion, but to ensembles of ground motions that have the same statistical properties, is presented. It is shown that the simple analytical model proposed by Housner in 1963 is capable of predicting the statistics of seismic response of a rigid rocking oscillator.     

Crustal thickness and adakite occurrence in the Philippines: Is there a relationship?

Adakites are increasingly being recognized worldwide in a variety of tectonic settings. Models on the formation of this geochemically distinct class of volcanic rocks have evolved from partial melting of subducted young, hot oceanic slabs to magmatism resulting from oblique subduction, low‐angle or flat subduction, or even slab‐tearing. Some workers have also pointed to the partial melting of thickened crust to explain the generation of adakitic melts. Rare earth element ratios from adakites and adakitic rocks in the Philippines were used in this study to obtain approximations of the levels where they were generated. These were tied to available geophysical data that defines the crustal thickness of the areas where the samples were collected. High Sm/Yb and La/Yb ratios denote the involvement of amphiboles, and in some cases garnet, in the generation of adakites and adakitic magmas. The presence of amphibole and garnet as residual phases suggests high pressures corresponding to thicker crust (～30 to 45 km). Adakites and adakitic rocks formed through processes other than melting of subducted young oceanic crust would need ≥30 km to account for the heavy rare earth element signatures. If mantle fractionation is not the process involved, crustal thickness is critical to generate adakites and adakitic rocks.     

Assessment of variables controlling nitrate dynamics in groundwater: is it a threat to surface aquatic ecosystems?

The impact of fertilised cropping on nitrate-N dynamics in groundwater (GW) was assessed in a catchment from piezometers installed: (i) to different depths, (ii) in different soil types, (iii) on different positions on landscape, and (iv) compared with the Australian and New Zealand Environmental and Conservation Council guideline values provided for different aquatic ecosystems. The GW and NO(3)-N concentration dynamics were monitored in 39 piezometer wells, installed to 5-90 m depth, under fertilized sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum-S) in the Johnstone River Catchment, Australia, from 1999 January through September 2002. The median nitrate-N concentration ranged from 14 to 1511 microg L(-1), and the 80th percentile from 0 to 1341 microg L(-1). In 34 out of the 39 piezometer wells the 80th percentile or 80% of the nitrate-N values were higher than 30 microg L(-1), which is the maximum trigger value provided in the ANZECC table for sustainable health of different aquatic ecosystems. Nitrate-N concentration decreased with increasing well depth, increasing depth of water in wells, and with decreasing relief on landscape. Nitrate-N was higher in alluvial soil profiles than on those formed in-situ. Nitrate-N increased with increasing rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season, fluctuated during the peak rainy period, and then decreased when the rain ceased. The rapid decrease in GW after the rains ceased suggested potential existed for nitrate-N to be discharged as lateral-flow into streams. This may contribute towards the deterioration in the health of down-stream aquatic ecosystems.     

NAM: Is bigger better?

The success of holding the RAS National Astronomy Meeting as part of an international meeting with the European Astronomy Society and the UK Solar Physics and MIST meetings has prompted many people to wonder: "Should we do this more often?" Sue Bowler reports.     

Is geomorphology sleepwalking into oblivion?

This commentary uses Google Books N‐grams to briefly explore the changing use of the word geomorphology in books published in British English and American English. Both show a decline in the use of the term geomorphology in recent years. A singular feature of the British data is a very sharp rise and fall in the use of term geomorphology in books published since 1980. The steep falling limb (post 1993) of this curve is of particular concern and several possible explanations are put forward including, since 1986, the influence exerted by Research Assessment Exercises on publication practice in UK universities. The N‐gram trends pose important questions for all geomorphologists and we should monitor them to gain a better understanding of where we need to be most visible to ensure the long‐term health of our discipline. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.