坚持发展是第一要务为全面建设小康社会做好气象服务

这次全省气象工作会议的主要任务是以党的十六大精神为指导，深入贯彻中国气象局长会议和省委工作会议精神，总结２００２年全省气象工作，部署今年的工作任务，动员全省气象工作者与时俱进，开拓创新，努力推进黑龙江省气象事业的新发展。一、２００２年全省气象工作的简要回顾２００２年是我国政治生活中十分重要的一年，党的十六大胜利召开，为我们描绘了更加美好的发展蓝图。黑龙江省气象事业继续保持了持续、健康的发展势头。全省气象部门认真贯彻落实党的十六大精神，努力实践“三个代表”的重要思想，按照中国气象局的部署，紧紧围绕…     

与时俱进扎实工作努力推进我省气象事业新发展

这次全省气象工作会议的主要任务是深入贯彻中国气象局长会议和全省农村工作会议精神，重点总结去年全省气象工作，部署今年的工作任务，动员全省气象工作者进一步解放思想，坚定信心，与时俱进，扎实工作，努力推进我省气象事业新发展。     

争取重大工程项目大力发展地方气象事业

“九五”以来，阿克苏气象事业的发展取得了长足的进步，其中重要的一条经验就是抢抓机遇，与时俱进，争取重大工程项目，推进气象事业迅速发展。１９９９年初至２００１年，阿克苏新一代天气雷达CINRAD／CC（３８３０）项目从争取立项到试运行，历时仅两年多。“一流台站”建设迈出实质性步伐，新和、库车县气象局综合业务楼年内相继竣工。这些工程项目极大地改善了气象职工工作、生活环境，美化了局站面貌，提高了服务水平，为气象事业的发展注入了活力。１抢抓机遇，与时俱进争取重大工程建设项目，我们的经验是：紧跟形势，与时俱进…     

专业气象服务与时俱进的实践与思考

随着社会进步以及经济的发展，气象服务事业随时面临着不断探索，不断创新，不断完善，与时俱进的新问题。本结合海北牧业气象服务近几年的具体实践，提出了专业气象服务与时俱进的几点思考，仅供有关领导和广大的气象服务人员参考。     

抓住机遇,开拓进取稳步发展牡丹江气象事业

近年来,牡丹江市气象局以“三个代表”重要思想为指导,在黑龙江省气象局和牡丹江市委、市政府的正确领导下,紧紧围绕全省气象工作会议精神和市委、市政府工作重点,以“与时俱进,开拓创新,做大做强做优牡丹江市气象事业”为目标、以提高气象服务水平和能力为重点,以充分发挥气象业务现代化效益为依托,以创新为主线,继续坚持服     

展示新成就 喜庆十六大——“九五“以来江西气象科技成果回顾与展望

在全省气象部门欢庆十六大胜利召开、认真贯彻十六大精神的喜庆日子里,我们组织部分专家,回顾了“九五”以来我省气象部门在气象科技方面取得的巨大成就,并对未来的发展进行了一些有益的思考。现将部分内容刊出,以飨广大读者。我们相信,在十六大精神的指导下,在省委、省政府和中国气象局的正确领导下,江西的气象科技事业一定能够与时俱进,开拓创新,朝着全面建设一流的江西气象事业的目标快速奋进,建立全面建设小康社会的气象科技支持体系,为江西在中部地区崛起、全面实现小康社会作出更大的贡献。     

浙江省气象局长会议在台州召开

20 0 3年 1月 2 5～ 2 6日 ,浙江省气象局长会议在台州召开。会议的主题是 :深入学习贯彻党的十六大精神 ,进一步解放思想、实事求是、与时俱进 ,加快推进浙江省的气象现代化建设 ,为全面建设小康社会和浙江省提前基本实现现代化做出更大贡献。会上 ,王守荣局长作了《深入学习贯彻十六大精神 ,为在全国率先基本实现气象现代化而努力奋斗》的工作报告 ,代表们分组讨论了工作报告和市局 2 0 0 3年工作目标及考核办法 ,朱青副局长作了会议总结。原省气象局局长潘云仙、席国耀 ,省局副局长徐国富、徐霜芝 ,省局党组成员沈水根、王国华及各市气象…     

省局举办辽宁省气象部门气象入精神演讲比赛

本刊讯 为加强精神文明建设，展示全省气象部门两个文明建设成果，推进全省气象文化建设，讴歌为气象事业无私奉献的先进集体和先进个人，大力弘扬气象人精神。激励广大气象工作者爱岗敬业、顽强拼搏、刻苦钻研、勇于创新，7月8日，辽宁省气象局举办了全省气象部门气象人精神演讲比赛，16名气象工作者参加了演讲比赛。100余名干部职工观看了演讲比赛。     

气象服务以创造价值为根本

结合气象业务技术体制改革的基本精神和当前气象服务工作发展现状，提出了“气象服务以创造价值为根本”这一命题，并以地级气象部门的实际情况为参照，从确立气象服务的价值理念、组建气象部门全员服务链、因地制宜推进价值目标和改进服务工作、通过有效服务创造价值等环节论述了实现这一目标的建议及其可行性。     

立足行业特点建设气象文化

江泽民同志在十六大报告中指出：“民族精神是一个民族赖以生存和发展的精神支撑。”“面对世界范围各种思想文化的相互激荡，必须把弘扬和培育民族精神作为文化建设极为重要的任务，纳入国民教育全过程，纳入精神文明建设全过程，使全体人民始终保持昂扬向上的精神状态。”这一论述为气象文化建设指明了方向。作为一种行业文化建设，从宏观上讲，是气象行业所创造的精神财富和物质文化精华的有机组合。近年来，哈密局高度重视气象文化     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.