Physical size of tsunamigenic earthquakes of the northwestern Pacific

The new scale M_t of tsunami magnitude is a reliable measure of the seismic moment of a tsunamigenic earthquake as well as the overall strength of a tsunami source. This M_t scale was originally defined by Abe (1979) in terms of maximum tsunami amplitudes at large distances from the source. A method is developed whereby it is possible to determine M_t at small distances on the basis of the regional tsunami data obtained at 30 tide stations in Japan. The relation between log H, maximum amplitude (m) and log Δ, a distance of not less than 100 km away from the source (km) is found to be linear, with a slope close to 1.0. Using three tsunamigenic earthquakes with known moment magnitudes M_w, for calibration, the relation, M_t = log H + log Δ + D, is obtained, where D is 5.80 for single-amplitude (crest or trough) data and 5.55 for double-amplitude (crest-to-trough) data. Using a number of tsunami amplitude data, M_t is assigned to 80 tsunamigenic earthquakes that occurred in the northwestern Pacific, mostly in Japan, during the period from 1894 to 1981. The M_t values are found to be essentially equivalent to M_w for 25 events with known M_w. The 1952 Kamchatka earthquake has the largest M_t, 9.0. Of all the 80 events listed, at least seven unusual earthquakes which generated disproportionately-large tsunamis for their surface-wave magnitude M_s are identified from the relation. From the viewpoint of tsunami hazard reduction, the present results provide a quantitative basis for predicting maximum tsunami amplitudes at a particular site.     

Quantification of major earthquake tsunamis of the Japan Sea

The size of major tsunamigenic earthquakes which occurred in the Japan Sea is quantified on the basis of seismic and tsunamigenic source parameters. The tsunami magnitude M_t is determined from the instrumental tsunami-wave amplitudes. The M_t values thus obtained are on average 0.2 units larger than the values of moment magnitude M_w, though the M_t scale has originally been adjusted to agree with M_w. Moreover, the volume of displaced water at the source is on average 2.3 times as large as that for the Pacific events with a comparable M_w. Nevertheless, the observed height of the sea-level disturbance at the source is found consistent with the amount of crustal deformation computed for the seismic fault models. These results indicate that the tsunami source potential itself is large for M_w in comparison with the Pacific events. The large source potential is explained in terms of the effective difference both in the rigidity of the source medium and in the geometry of the fault motion. For the Japan Sea events, the M_t scale still provides the physical measure of the tsunami potential, and M_t minus 0.2 corresponds to M_w. This predicts that the maximum amplitude of tsunami waves from Japan Sea earthquakes is at least two times as large as that from Pacific earthquakes with a comparable M_w.     

Relationship of Tsunami Intensity to Source Earthquake Magnitude as Retrieved from Historical Data

Operational prediction of near-field tsunamis in all existing Tsunami Warning Systems (TWSs) is based on fast determination of the position and size of submarine earthquakes. Exceedance of earthquake magnitude above some established threshold value, which can vary over different tsunamigenic zones, results in issuing a warning signal. Usually, a warning message has several (from 2 to 5) grades reflecting the degree of tsunami danger and sometimes contains expected wave heights at the coast. Current operational methodology is based on two main assumptions: (1) submarine earthquakes above some threshold magnitude can generate dangerous tsunamis and (2) the height of a resultant tsunami is, in general, proportional to the earthquake magnitude. While both assumptions are physically reasonable and generally correct, statistics of issued warnings are far from being satisfactory. For the last 55 years, up to 75% of warnings for regional tsunamis have turned out to be false, while each TWS has had at least a few cases of missing dangerous tsunamis. This paper presents the results of investigating the actual dependence of tsunami intensity on earthquake magnitude as it can be retrieved from historical observations and discusses the degree of correspondence of the above assumptions to real observations. Tsunami intensity, based on the Soloviev-Imamura scale is used as a measure of tsunami “size”. Its correlation with the M _s and M _w magnitudes is investigated based on historical data available for the instrumental period of observations (from 1900 to present).     

Tsunami Hazard Posed to New Zealand by the Kermadec and Southern New Hebrides Subduction Margins: An Assessment Based on Plate Boundary Kinematics, Interseismic Coupling, and Historical Seismicity

We assess the tsunami hazard posed to New Zealand by the Kermadec and southern New Hebrides subduction margins. Neither of these subduction zones has produced tsunami large enough to cause significant damage in New Zealand over the past 150?years of well-recorded history. However, as this time frame is short compared to the recurrence interval for major tsunamigenic earthquakes on many of the Earth’s subduction zones, it should not be assumed that what has been observed so far is representative of the long term. For each of these two subduction zones we present plate kinematic and fault-locking results from block modelling of earthquake slip vector data and GPS velocities. The results are used to estimate the current rates of strain accumulation on the plate interfaces where large tsunamigenic earthquakes typically occur. We also review data on the larger historical earthquakes that have occurred on these margins, as well as the Global CMT catalogue of events since 1976. Using this information we have developed a set of scenarios for large earthquakes which have been used as initial conditions for the COMCOT tsunami code to estimate the subsequent tsunami propagation in the southwest Pacific, and from these the potential impact on New Zealand has been evaluated. Our results demonstrate that there is a significant threat posed to the Northland and Coromandel regions of New Zealand should a large earthquake (M _w ?8.5) occur on the southern or middle regions of the Kermadec Trench, and that a similarly large earthquake on the southern New Hebrides Trench has the potential to strongly impact on the far northern parts of New Zealand close to the southern end of the submarine Three Kings Ridge. We propose logic trees for the magnitude–frequency parameters of large earthquakes originating on each trench, which are intended to form the basis for future probabilistic studies.     

Observation and Modeling of the January 2009 West Papua, Indonesia Tsunami

We modeled a tsunami from the West Papua, Indonesia earthquakes on January 3, 2009 (M _w?=?7.7). After the first earthquake, tsunami alerts were issued in Indonesia and Japan. The tsunami was recorded at many stations located in and around the Pacific Ocean. In particular, at Kushimoto on Kii Peninsula, the maximum amplitude was 43?cm, larger than that at Manokwari on New Guinea Island, near the epicenter. The tsunami was recorded on near-shore wave gauges, offshore GPS sensors and deep-sea bottom pressure sensors. We have collected more than 150 records and used 72 stations?? data with clear tsunami signals for the tsunami source modeling. We assumed two fault models (single fault and five subfaults) which are located to cover the aftershock area. The estimated average slip on the single fault model (80?×?40?km) is 0.64?m, which yields a seismic moment of 1.02?×?10²⁰?Nm (M _w?=?7.3). The observed tsunami waveforms at most stations are well explained by this model.     

Modeling of the runup heights of the Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki tsunami of 12 July 1993

The Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki earthquake (M _w 7.7) of July 12, 1993, is one of the largest tsunamigenic events in the Sea of Japan. The tsunami magnitudeM _t is determined to be 8.1 from the maximum amplitudes of the tsunami recorded on tide gauges. This value is larger thanM _w by 0.4 units. It is suggested that the tsunami potential of the Nansei-Oki earthquake is large forM _w . A number of tsunami runup data are accumulated for a total range of about 1000 km along the coast, and the data are averaged to obtain the local mean heightsH _n for 23 segments in intervals of about 40 km each. The geographic variation ofH _n is approximately explained in terms of the empirical relationship proposed byAbe (1989, 1993). The height prediction from the available earthquake magnitudes ranges from 5.0–8.4 m, which brackets the observed maximum ofH _n , 7.7 m, at Okushiri Island.     

Homogenization of Earthquake Catalog for Northeast India and Adjoining Region

A catalog for northeast India and the adjoining region for the period 1897–2009 with 4,497 earthquakes events is compiled for homogenization to moment magnitude M _w,GCMT in the magnitude range 3–8.7. Relations for conversion of m _b and M _s magnitudes to M _w,GCMT are derived using three different methods, namely, linear standard regression, inverted standard regression (ISR) and orthogonal standard regression (OSR), for different magnitude ranges based on events data for the catalog period 1976–2006. The OSR relations for M _s to M _w,GCMT conversion derived in this paper have significantly lower errors in regression parameters compared to the relations reported in other studies. Since the number of events with magnitude ≥7 for this region is scanty, we, therefore, considered whole India region to obtain the regression relationships between M _w,GCMT and M _s,ISC. A relationship between M _w,GCMT and M _w,NEIC is also obtained based on 17 events for the range 5.2 ≤ magnitude ≤ 6.6. A unified homogeneous catalog prepared using the conversion relations derived in this paper can serve as a reference catalog for seismic hazard assessment studies in northeast India and the adjoining region.     

Iranian earthquakes, a uniform catalog with moment magnitudes

A uniform earthquake catalog is an essential tool in any seismic hazard analysis. In this study, an earthquake catalog of Iran and adjacent areas was compiled, using international and national databanks. The following priorities were applied in selecting magnitude and earthquake location: (a) local catalogs were given higher priority for establishing the location of an earthquake and (b) global catalogs were preferred for determining earthquake magnitudes. Earthquakes that have occurred within the bounds between 23–42° N and 42–65° E, with a magnitude range of M _W 3.5–7.9, from the third millennium BC until April 2010 were included. In an effort to avoid the “boundary effect,” since the newly compiled catalog will be mainly used for seismic hazard assessment, the study area includes the areas adjacent to Iran. The standardization of the catalog in terms of magnitude was achieved by the conversion of all types of magnitude into moment magnitude, M _W, by using the orthogonal regression technique. In the newly compiled catalog, all aftershocks were detected, based on the procedure described by Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64:1363–1367, 1974). The seismicity parameters were calculated for the six main tectonic seismic zones of Iran, i.e., the Zagros Mountain Range, the Alborz Mountain Range, Central Iran, Kope Dagh, Azerbaijan, and Makran.     

Frequency analysis of annual maximum earthquakes within a geographical region

The risk formula, expressing the probability of at least one occurrence of earthquakes of greater-than-design-value magnitudes over the economic life of a structure, is modified taking into consideration the probability of no-earthquake years. The annual maximum earthquake magnitudes of three scales: Richter magnitude, also known as local magnitude (M_L), body-wave magnitude (M_b), and moment magnitude (M_M) in a geographical area encompassing the Bingöl Province in Turkey are taken from two sources: (1) report by Kalafat et al. (2007) [14] and (2) the web site reporting data by Kandilli Observatory which has been recording earthquakes occurring in and around Turkey since 1900. Statistical frequency analyses are applied on the three sample series using various probability distribution models, and magnitude versus average return period relationships are determined. The values of the M_L, M_b, and M_M series for 10% and 2% risk are computed to be around 7.2 and 8.3. The tectonic structure and seismic properties of the Bingöl region are also given briefly.     

Geologic Setting, Field Survey and Modeling of the Chimbote, Northern Peru, Tsunami of 21 February 1996

—Whereas the coast of Peru south of 10°S is historically accustomed to tsunamigenic earthquakes, the subduction zone north of 10°S has been relatively quiet. On 21 February 1996 at 21:51 GMT (07:51 local time) a large, tsunamigenic earthquake (Harvard estimate M _w = 7.5) struck at 9.6°S, 79.6°W, approximately 130 km off the northern coast of Peru, north of the intersection of the Mendaña fracture zone with the Peru–Chile trench. The likely mechanism inferred from seismic data is a low-angle thrust consistent with subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the South American plate, with relatively slow rupture characteristics. Approximately one hour after the main shock, a damaging tsunami reached the Peruvian coast, resulting in twelve deaths. We report survey measurements, from 7.7°S to 11°S, on maximum runup (2–5m, between 8 and 10°S), maximum inundation distances, which exceeded 500 m, and tsunami sediment deposition patterns. Observations and numerical simulations show that the hydrodynamic characteristics of this event resemble those of the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami. Differences in climate, vegetation and population make these two tsunamis seem more different than they were. This 1996 Chimbote event was the first large (M _w >7) subduction-zone (interplate) earthquake between about 8 and 10°S, in Peru, since the 17th century, and bears resemblance to the 1960 (M _w 7.6) event at 6.8°S. Together these two events are apparently the only large subduction-zone earthquakes in northern Peru since 1619 (est. latitude 8°S, est. M _w 7.8); these two tsunamis also each produced more fatalities than any other tsunami in Peru since the 18th century. We concur with Pelayo and Wiens (1990, 1992) that this subduction zone, in northern Peru, resembles others where the subduction zone is only weakly coupled, and convergence is largely aseismic. Subduction-zone earthquakes, when they occur, are slow, commonly shallow, and originate far from shore (near the tip of the wedge). Thus they are weakly felt, and the ensuing tsunamis are unanticipated by local populations. Although perhaps a borderline case, the Chimbote tsunami clearly is another wake-up example of a "tsunami earthquake."     

Unified Local Magnitude Scale for Earthquakes of South Balkan Area

—A homogeneous earthquake catalog spanning 1964–1995 for the southern Balkan area is presented, by expressing the size of the earthquakes in a unified local magnitude scale. The strategy followed to produce this catalog is also presented. Local magnitudes calculated by six Balkan seismological centers (ATH, THE, ISK, TIR, TTG, SKO) have been used in order to obtain relations between the estimated ML values from the Greek seismological centers (ATH and THE) and the remaining four Balkan stations. Since it was found that local magnitudes estimated by ATH and THE are almost identical, they have been used as one data set so as to correlate with the data of each one of the remaining four seismological stations. Based on the proposed relations, a unified local magnitude, MLGR, is given for each earthquake of the regional catalog. A published scaling relation between the ML values from ATH and THE networks and the corresponding seismic moment magnitude, Mw, was used in combination with the above relations, in order to enable the conversion of any ML value from any station into Mw. The catalog completeness has been checked and the b-value has been calculated for the complete data sample.     

Empirical Global Relations Converting M S and m b to Moment Magnitude

The existence of several magnitude scales used by seismological centers all over the world and the compilation of earthquake catalogs by many authors have rendered globally valid relations connecting magnitude scales a necessity. This would allow the creation of a homogeneous global earthquake catalog, a useful tool for earthquake research. Of special interest is the definition of global relations converting different magnitude scales to the most reliable and useful scale of magnitude, the moment magnitude, M _W. In order to accomplish this, a very large sample of data from international seismological sources (ISC, NEIC, HRVD, etc.) has been collected and processed. The magnitude scales tested against M _W are the surface wave magnitude, M _S, the body wave magnitude, m _b, and the local magnitude, M _L. The moment magnitudes adopted have been taken from the CMT solutions of HRVD and USGS. The data set used in this study contains 20,407 earthquakes, which occurred all over the world during the time period 1.1.1976–31.5.2003, for which moment magnitudes are available. It is shown that well-defined relations hold between M _W and m _b and M _S and that these relations can be reliably used for compiling homogeneous, with respect to magnitude, earthquake catalogs.     

Tsunami Early Warning Within Five Minutes

Tsunamis are most destructive at near to regional distances, arriving within 20–30 min after a causative earthquake; effective early warning at these distances requires notification within 15 min or less. The size and impact of a tsunami also depend on sea floor displacement, which is related to the length, L, width, W, mean slip, D, and depth, z, of the earthquake rupture. Currently, the primary seismic discriminant for tsunami potential is the centroid-moment tensor magnitude, M _w ^CMT , representing the product LWD and estimated via an indirect inversion procedure. However, the obtained M _w ^CMT and the implied LWD value vary with rupture depth, earth model, and other factors, and are only available 20–30 min or more after an earthquake. The use of more direct discriminants for tsunami potential could avoid these problems and aid in effective early warning, especially for near to regional distances. Previously, we presented a direct procedure for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential using two, simple measurements on P-wave seismograms—the predominant period on velocity records, T _d , and the likelihood, T ₅₀ ^Ex , that the high-frequency, apparent rupture-duration, T ₀, exceeds 50–55 s. We have shown that T _d and T ₀ are related to the critical rupture parameters L, W, D, and z, and that either of the period–duration products T _d T ₀ or T _d T ₅₀ ^Ex gives more information on tsunami impact and size than M _w ^CMT , M _wp, and other currently used discriminants. These results imply that tsunami potential is not directly related to the product LWD from the “seismic” faulting model, as is assumed with the use of the M _w ^CMT discriminant. Instead, information on rupture length, L, and depth, z, as provided by T _d T ₀ or T _d T ₅₀ ^Ex , can constrain well the tsunami potential of an earthquake. We introduce here special treatment of the signal around the S arrival at close stations, a modified, real-time, M _wpd(RT) magnitude, and other procedures to enable early estimation of event parameters and tsunami discriminants. We show that with real-time data currently available in most regions of tsunami hazard, event locations, m _b and M _wp magnitudes, and the direct, period–duration discriminant, T _d T ₅₀ ^Ex can be determined within 5 min after an earthquake occurs, and T ₀, T _d T ₀, and M _wpd(RT) within approximately 10 min. This processing is implemented and running continuously in real-time within the Early-est earthquake monitor at INGV-Rome (http://early-est.rm.ingv.it). We also show that the difference m _b  ? log₁₀(T _d T ₀) forms a rapid discriminant for slow, tsunami earthquakes. The rapid availability of these measurements can aid in faster and more reliable tsunami early warning for near to regional distances.     

Assessment of the Relative Largest Earthquake Hazard Level in the NW Himalaya and its Adjacent Region

In the present study, the level of the largest earthquake hazard is assessed in 28 seismic zones of the NW Himalaya and its vicinity, which is a highly seismically active region of the world. Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution (hereafter as GIII) is adopted for the evaluation of the largest earthquake magnitudes in these seismic zones. Instead of taking in account any type of M_max, in the present study we consider the ω value which is the largest earthquake magnitude that a region can experience according to the GIII statistics. A function of the form Θ(ω, RP_6.0) is providing in this way a relatively largest earthquake hazard scale defined by the letter K (K index). The return periods for the ω values (earthquake magnitudes) 6 or larger (RP_6.0) are also calculated. According to this index, the investigated seismic zones are classified into five groups and it is shown that seismic zones 3 (Quetta of Pakistan), 11 (Hindukush), 15 (northern Pamirs), and 23 (Kangra, Himachal Pradesh of India) correspond to a “very high” K index which is 6.     

Probabilistic Appraisal of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Deduced from a Bayesian Approach in the Northwest Frontier of the Himalayas

A straightforward Bayesian statistic is applied in five broad seismogenic source zones of the northwest frontier of the Himalayas to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters (maximum regional magnitude M _max, β value of G–R relationship and seismic activity rate or intensity λ). For this purpose, a reliable earthquake catalogue which is homogeneous for M _W ≥ 5.0 and complete during the period 1900 to 2010 is compiled. The Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya zone has been further divided into two seismic zones of shallow (h ≤ 70 km) and intermediate depth (h > 70 km) according to the variation of seismicity with depth in the subduction zone. The estimated earthquake hazard parameters by Bayesian approach are more stable and reliable with low standard deviations than other approaches, but the technique is more time consuming. In this study, quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitudes for future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years are calculated with confidence limits for probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % in all seismogenic source zones. The zones of estimated M _max greater than 8.0 are related to the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges, Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and Himalayan Frontal Thrusts belt; suggesting more seismically hazardous regions in the examined area. The lowest value of M _max (6.44) has been calculated in Northern-Pakistan and Hazara syntaxis zone which have estimated lowest activity rate 0.0023 events/day as compared to other zones. The Himalayan Frontal Thrusts belt exhibits higher earthquake magnitude (8.01) in next 100-years with 90 % probability level as compared to other zones, which reveals that this zone is more vulnerable to occurrence of a great earthquake. The obtained results in this study are directly useful for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the examined region of Himalaya.     

A first-order seismotectonic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk estimation

The purpose of this work is to define a seismic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk analyses. This seismic regionalization is based on seismic, geologic, and tectonic characteristics. To this end, a seismic catalog was compiled using the more reliable sources available. The catalog was made homogeneous in magnitude in order to avoid the differences in the way this parameter is reported by various agencies. Instead of using a linear regression to converts from m _b and M _d to M _s or M _w , using only events for which estimates of both magnitudes are available (i.e., paired data), we used the frequency-magnitude relations relying on the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The seismic regions are divided into three main categories: seismicity associated with the subduction process along the Pacific coast of Mexico, in-slab events within the down-going COC and RIV plates, and crustal seismicity associated to various geologic and tectonic regions. In total, 18 seismic regions were identified and delimited. For each, the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation were determined using a maximum likelihood estimation. The a and b parameters were repeatedly estimated as a function of time for each region, in order to confirm their reliability and stability. The recurrence times predicted by the resulting Gutenberg-Richter relations obtained are compared with the observed recurrence times of the larger events in each region of both historical and instrumental earthquakes.     

Magnitude scale for the Central American tsunamis

Based on the tsunami data in the Central American region, the regional characteristic of tsunami magnitude scales is discussed in relation to earthquake magnitudes during the period from 1900 to 1993. Tsunami magnitudes on the Imamura-Iida scale of the 1985 Mexico and 1992 Nicaragua tsunamis are determined to bem=2.5, judging from the tsunami height-distance diagram. The magnitude values of the Central American tsunamis are relatively small compared to earthquakes with similar size in other regions. However, there are a few large tsunamis generated by low-frequency earthquakes such as the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake. Inundation heights of these unusual tsunamis are about 10 times higher than those of normal tsunamis for the same earthquake magnitude (M _s =6.9–7.2). The Central American tsunamis having magnitudem>1 have been observed by the Japanese tide stations, but the effect of directivity toward Japan is very small compared to that of the South American tsunamis.     

中国海域及邻区基于BP神经网络的矩震级转换模型

海域地震对我国海洋资源开发和沿海地区的经济建设形成严重威胁,开展相关地震活动性研究的重要前提是编译我国海域及邻区的地震目录。我国常用的震级标度为面波震级(MS),而国际上最新的地震活动模型多采用矩震级(MW),因此在应用这些模型时需要拟合面波震级与矩震级之间的转换关系。本文以中国海域及邻区为研究区,收集了1988—2020年中国地震台网的面波震级和全球矩心矩张量(GCMT)项目的矩震级数据,从中提取年份、深度、经度、纬度、面波震级作为影响因子,以实际记录的矩震级值作为标记,训练BP神经网络建立以GCMT的矩震级为目标的震级转换模型。同时,使用最小二乘回归和正交回归建立线性模型作为对比。结果显示,最小二乘回归和正交回归的平均绝对误差和均方根误差比BP神经网络高40%左右。此外,BP神经网络的残差绝对值更小、分布更集中。     

Field Survey of the 27 February 2010 Chile Tsunami

On 27 February 2010, a magnitude M _w?=?8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Chile??s Maule region causing substantial damage and loss of life. Ancestral tsunami knowledge from the 1960 event combined with education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate after the earthquake. Many of the tsunami victims were tourists in coastal campgrounds. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event and surveyed 800?km of coastline from Quintero to Mehuín and the Pacific Islands of Santa María, Mocha, Juan Fernández Archipelago, and Rapa Nui (Easter). The collected survey data include more than 400 tsunami flow depth, runup and coastal uplift measurements. The tsunami peaked with a localized runup of 29?m on a coastal bluff at Constitución. The observed runup distributions exhibit significant variations on local and regional scales. Observations from the 2010 and 1960 Chile tsunamis are compared.     

传统与现代震级标度

首先阐述并比较传统震级(M_L、m_b、m_B、M_S及M_JMA)所用数据、计算方法及适用范围,系统梳理两种现代震级标度M_e和M_W的理论基础及计算方法。然后根据使用数据及适用场景不同,介绍M_WW、M_WC、M_Wb、M_wp及M_dt等矩震级测定方法;同时,随着越来越丰富的GPS观测数据,基于高频GPS观测也越来越多地被用于地震震级快速测定工作。最后对这些震级测定方法的时效性进行对比分析,讨论不同震级标度的适用场景及其稳定性。