温室气体浓度增加的原因及对气候的影响

通过对二氧化碳等温室气体浓度增加而引起气候变暖的分析 ,评价了温室气体增加对气候变化及生态系统发展的影响     

厄尔尼诺事件及其对华南天气气候的影响

１　引　言　　１９９７年夏季我国东部出现了大范围的天气气候异常。６月到７月上旬,广东、广西两省区持续大到暴雨并有雷暴天气。６月２７日至７月７日的１１天内,清远、江门、珠海、汕尾、阳江等地降雨量为５００～８００ｍｍ。香港６月３０日到７月２日三天降雨约５００ｍｍ。南粤大地暴雨肆虐,洪涝成灾。至１０月中旬,香港降雨量已达３２４９ｍｍ,成为１１３年来雨水最多的一年。持续的阴雨天气使广东省大部地区６、７月气温持续偏低。７月７日小暑,当天广州最高气温为２９℃,最低为２５℃,比往年同期偏低５℃左右。传媒惊呼“…     

气候变暖对黑龙江灾害天气气候影响

黑龙江省近20年，较前30年年平均温度上升1℃，增温最大季节在冬季增温1.6℃，其它季节次之，增温中心在呼玛。增温主要表现在极端最低气温的增高，年平均最低温度增高1．7℃，年较差变小1．16℃；极端气候事件明显增加。     

温室气体浓度增加情景下西北太平洋热带气旋变化的模拟分析

利用德国Max-Planck气象研究所参与政府间气候变化委员会(The Intergovernmental Panelon Cli-mate Change,IPCC)第四次评估报告的气候系统模式(ECHAM5/MPI-OM)的数值模拟结果,分析研究了全球增暖背景下西北太平洋热带气旋的变化。结果表明,ECHAM5模式较好的模拟出了热带气旋的基本结构和频数的分布特征。当大气中CO2浓度增加时,热带气旋中心的最低气压升高,850hPa正涡度降低,风速减小,风场出现反气旋性环流异常,暖心强度减弱,气旋的低层径向流入和高层径向流出减少,气旋总体强度减弱。CO2浓度的增加会总体上减少西北太平洋热带气旋的生成频数,从模拟结果看年均减少10个左右。就CO2浓度增加对热带气旋频数季节变化的影响而言,CO2浓度增加所引起气旋频数减少较平均的分配到多个月份里,表明CO2浓度增加引起的大气环流异常在全年都会对西北太平洋热带气旋的发生频数产生影响。分析加拿大参加IPCC第四次评估报告的CGCM3.1(T47)模拟资料,其结果与ECHAM5资料得到的结果大致相似。     

广西天气气候对人体健康的影响

采用广西多年季、月、旬平均气温、季平均相对湿度和历年的月最高气温、极端最高气温、主要天气气候事件等气象资料以及广西疾病预防控制中心的疾病监测数据和相关医学文献,对广西气候因素对人体健康的影响开展研究。结果显示,冬季和秋季的寒潮、夏季高温热浪,春、秋、冬季的"回南天"、低温阴雨是对人体健康影响较大的天气气候事件;气象因素引发的主要疾病包括心脑血管疾病、呼吸道疾病、胃肠道疾病等,其中受气象因素影响而致死的疾病中以心脑血管疾病死亡率最高,呼吸道疾病死亡率居第二位。     

1993年北半球环流特征及其对我国天气气候的影响

１９９３年北半球主要环流特征表现为：５００ｈＰａ副产持续加强西伸，位置偏南；亚洲中纬度春，夏经向环流发展，东亚太平洋遥相关型稳定；西藏高原５００ｈＰａ位势高度持续偏高，印缅槽持续偏弱；１００ｈＰａ位势高度场低纬持续偏高，中，高纬持续偏低，夏季南亚高压位置异常偏高。热带海洋出现明显异常，一次新的厄尔尼诺现象发生。热带海洋和北半球大气环流的异常对我国天气气候产生明显影响。     

1998年度浙江省天气气候对主要农作物生长的影响

1998年度,全省温度偏高,大部地区降水偏多,日照时数略偏少。四季具有:冬季温暖多雨;春季持续温高多雨;梅雨期短,但雨量集中,洪涝灾重;夏季高温酷暑严重;秋季晴暖少雨,秋季低温出现虽偏早但影响不大。本年度主要气象灾害为雨涝、大雪、寒潮、洪涝、高温酷暑、干旱、冰雹和龙卷风等,对农业生产有一定影响。农作物主要生育期农业气象条件除晚稻较好外,大小麦和早稻属偏差年份,因此三季主要粮食作物产量同去年相比为两减一增,即大小麦和早稻减,晚稻增。     

日照沿海海陆风的气候特点及其对天气的影响

使用近海海温资料和莒县站、日照站气象资料,用对比分析的方法分析了日照地区沿海海陆风的气候特征及对当地天气的影响。发现海陆风明显的季节变化和日变化对当地气温、降水、湿度及天空状况等气象要素的空间和时间分布影响显著。海风强盛季节的午后和陆风强盛季节的早上,沿海的温度梯度常具有海风锋和海岸锋的特征,使沿海地区低云和雷暴天气明显增多,降水分布具有明显的海陆风和地形影响特征。     

国际气候谈判背景下的国家温室气体排放清单编制

基于"共同但有区别的责任"原则,《联合国气候变化框架公约》对附件I和非附件I缔约方提交国家温室气体排放清单的要求不尽相同。2007年以来,发展中国家自主减缓行动透明度、以国家温室气候排放清单为核心的国家信息通报提交频率及其磋商分析问题成为气候谈判争论的焦点之一,发展中国家承担的相关义务有不断增加的趋势。通过阐述该公约对发达国家和发展中国家排放清单编制的不同要求,特别是通过对目前发达国家所接受的清单审评制度和我国国家温室气体排放清单编制情况的分析论述,明确我国国家清单编制所面临的挑战,并提出相应的对策建议。     

欧洲地区不同温室气体背景下土地利用/覆盖变化的气候效应

通过温室气体排放和土地利用/覆盖变化,人类活动对气候变化产生显著影响。为了探究在不同温室气体浓度（Greenhouse gas concentration,GHG）背景下,相同的土地利用/覆盖变化（Land Use and Land Cover Change,LULCC）对于欧洲区域气候的影响差异,采用CESM（Community Earth System Model）耦合模式进行了模拟研究。研究发现,在1850年温室气体浓度背景下,土地利用/覆盖变化导致欧洲中东部地区降水显著增加,而在2000年温室气体浓度背景下,土地利用/覆盖变化导致欧洲中东部地区降水减少。温室气体增加后,LULCC导致该地区对流层低层大气环流由辐合变为辐散,气温以及大气水汽含量降低,这些变化能较大程度的改变LULCC对区域降水的净影响力。     

The predictability of weather and climate

The last thirty years have seen the development of comprehensive numerical models of the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere, based on physical principles. Such models are quite skillful at describing the evolving weather up to a few days ahead, despite imperfect theory and inadequate observational data. Yet even a hypothetical perfect model, which exactly represented the dynamics of the real atmosphere, and which used data from the best conceivable observing system, could not produce an accurate forecast of indefinitely long range. Any forecast must eventually lose skill because of the intrinsic instability of the atmosphere itself.This limitation on the predictability of the detailed evolution of the atmosphere (weather) does not preclude the possibility of seasonal and longer-range forecasts of means and other statistical properties (climate). However, we are only beginning to learn what aspects of climate may be predictable, and what theoretical tools and observational data will be required to predict them.     

冬暖式大棚内茄子栽培气象条件分析

应用2003年1-4月、10-12月在寿光蔬菜基地的冬暖式大棚内茄子栽培生长情况所取得的温度、光照和湿度资料及同一时期外部环境气象资料,分析了冬暖式大棚内的温度、光照及湿度等气象条件对越冬茄子的影响情况,提出了改进措施。     

Competition of NAO regime changes and increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols with respect to Arctic climate projections

Regional magnitudes and patterns of Arctic winter climate changes in consequence of regime changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are analyzed using a regional atmospheric climate model. The regional model has been driven with data of positive and negative NAO phases from a control simulation as well as from a time-dependent greenhouse gas and aerosol scenario simulation. Both global model simulations include a quite realistic interannual variability of the NAO with pronounced decadal regime changes and no or rather weak long-term NAO trends. The results indicate that the effects of NAO regime changes on Arctic winter temperatures and precipitation are regionally significant over most of northwestern Eurasia and parts of Greenland. In this regard, mean winter temperature variations of up to 6 K may occur over northern Europe. Precipitation and synoptic variability are also regionally modified by NAO regime changes, but not as significantly as temperatures. However, the climate changes associated with the NAO are in some regions clearly stronger than those attributed to enhanced greenhouse gases and aerosols, indicating that projected global changes of the atmospheric composition and internal circulation changes are competing with each other in their importance for the Arctic climate evolution in the near future. The knowledge of the future NAO trend on decadal and longer time scales appears to be vitally important in terms of a regional assessment of climate scenarios for the Arctic.     

数值天气预报和气候预测的可预报性问题

考察由初始状态误差和模式中参数误差所引起的预报结果的不确定性。提出了数值天气预报与气候预测中三类可预报性问题，即，最大可预报时间，最大预报误差，初值与参数的最大允许误差。然后将这三类问题化成了对应的非线性优化问题，给出了处理此类非线性优化问题的思路，并且有数值方法对Lorenz模型研究了这三类问题。     

An annotated bibliography on the greenhouse effect and climate change

The literature on climate change from an enhanced greenhouse effect is large and growing rapidly. The problems considered are increasingly inter-disciplinary. For these reasons many workers will find useful pointers to the literature in the fields interacting with, but outside of, their own. We present here an annotated bibliography on issues relating to changes in the concentrations of Earth's greenhouse gases. The areas covered include theory and numerical modelling of climate change; cycles involving carbon dioxide and other radiatively important trace gases; observations of climate change and the problems associated with those observations; paleoclimatology as it relates to previous changes in the greenhouse gases; the impacts on and interactions with managed and natural ecosystems from climate change; policy issues related to climate change and to the limitation of climate change; history of the study of the greenhouse effect; and some other causes of climate change. Selection of papers has been made to facilitate rapid introduction to most of the important issues and findings in an area. Over 600 articles, reports, and books are discussed.     

The impact of weather and climate on tourist demand: the case of Chester Zoo

Warmer, drier summer weather brought by global climate change should encourage use of outdoor leisure facilities. Yet few studies assess the effect of current weather and climate conditions upon visits to leisure attractions. Statistical time series models are used to analyse the short-run impact of weather and the long-run impact of climate upon visits to Chester Zoo, England. Temperature has a non-linear effect on visit levels. Daily visits rise with temperature up to a threshold around 21 °C. Thereafter visitor numbers drop on hot days. Visits are redistributed over time in accordance with the weather. Visitors discouraged by rainy weather one day turn up later when the weather improves. Otherwise, visitor behaviour is mainly influenced by the annual rhythm of the year and the pattern of public and school holidays. Out-of-sample tests suggest almost 70 % of the variation in visit levels can be explained by the combination of weather and time of year. Climate change is likely to redistribute visitors across the year. But it does not follow that “summer” visitor behaviour will transfer to spring and autumn. Day length, existing patterns of human activity and availability of leisure time constrain visit levels regardless of better weather. The main implication of potential climate change is the need for physical adaptation of the tourist environment as temperatures rise and rainfall diminishes in summer.     

Assessing the impact of weather and climate in Australia

Weather and climate have a significant impact on the Australian society and environment. While the impacts of major changes in the Australian climate likely to occur from the enhanced greenhouse effect have been reported in the literature fewer studies have addressed the impact of the climate's natural variability. Ways in which weather and climate and its variability impact on the decision making process are described and methods available to assess the sensitivity of the economy and the natural environment are also presented. Methods which are being developed to determine the value of weather and climate information to decision makers are briefly described. The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a strong contributor to the variability of the Australian climate. It is used to illustrate the impact of climate variability on both the economy and natural environment of Australia. Finally, the extent to which there is political awareness of the impact of climate variability on the Australian society and environment is briefly examined.     

How weather impacts the forced climate response

The new interactive ensemble modeling strategy is used to diagnose how noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics impacts the forced climate response during the twentieth century (i.e., 1870?C1999). The interactive ensemble uses multiple realizations of the atmospheric component model coupled to a single realization of the land, ocean and ice component models in order to reduce the noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics in the flux exchange at the interface of the component models. A control ensemble of so-called climate of the twentieth century simulations of the Community Climate Simulation Model version 3 (CCSM3) are compared with a similar simulation with the interactive ensemble version of CCSM3. Despite substantial differences in the overall mean climate, the global mean trends in surface temperature, 500?mb geopotential and precipitation are largely indistinguishable between the control ensemble and the interactive ensemble. Large differences in the forced response; however, are detected particularly in the surface temperature of the North Atlantic. Associated with the forced North Atlantic surface temperature differences are local differences in the forced precipitation and a substantial remote rainfall response in the deep tropical Pacific. We also introduce a simple variance analysis to separately compare the variance due to noise and the forced response. We find that the noise variance is decreased when external forcing is included. In terms of the forced variance, we find that the interactive ensemble increases this variance relative to the control.