Quantifying volcanic ash fall hazard to electricity infrastructure

Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures.     

Merging eruption datasets: building an integrated Holocene eruptive record for Mt Taranaki,New Zealand

Acquiring detailed eruption frequency datasets for a volcano system is essential for realistic eruption forecasts. However, accurate datasets are inherently difficult to compile, even if one or more well-dated eruption records are available. A single record typically under-represents the eruption frequency, while combining two or more records may result in an overrepresentation. Although glass compositions have proven to be successful in tephrochronological studies of dominantly rhyolitic tephras; microlitic growth and thin glass shards inhibit their application to andesitic tephras. A method consisting of a combination of two techniques for correlating syn-eruptive deposits is demonstrated on data from the typical andesitic stratovolcano of Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand. Firstly, tentative matches are identified using the radiocarbon age and associated error of each event. Secondly, the compositions of titanomagnetite micro-phenocrysts are used as an independent check, and shown to be a useful correlation tool where age data is available. Using two lake-core records containing tephra layers in an overlapping time-frame, the radiocarbon age-correlation procedure suggested 31 tephra matches. Geochemistry data were available for 15 of these pairs. In three of these cases, the titanomagnetite compositions did not match. Hence, these “paired” tephras were from compositionally distinct magmas and therefore likely represent separate events. An additional three matches were reassigned within the temporal uncertainty limits of the dating procedure, based on better geochemical pairing. The final combined dataset suggests that there have been at least 138 separate ash fall-producing eruptions between 96 and 10 150 years B.P. from Taranaki. Using the combined dataset the mixture of Weibulls renewal model forecasts a probability of 0.52 for an eruption occurring in the next 50 years at this volcano. The present annual eruption probability is estimated at 1.6%. This likelihood is almost double that obtained when relying on a single stratigraphic record.     

Volcanic risk ranking for Auckland, New Zealand. II: Hazard consequences and risk calculation

In a companion paper, a methodology for ranking volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk was presented, and the likelihood and extent of potential hazards in the Auckland Region, New Zealand investigated. In this paper, the effects of each hazard are considered and the risk ranking completed. Values for effect are proportions of total loss and, as with likelihood and extent, are based on order of magnitude.Two outcomes were considered – building damage and loss of human life. In terms of building damage, tephra produces the highest risk by an order of magnitude, followed by lava flows and base surge. For loss of human life, risk from base surge is highest. The risks from pyroclastic flows and tsunami are an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, tephra fall followed by base surge produces the highest risk. The risks from lava flows and pyroclastic flows are an order of magnitude smaller. For building damage, the risk from Mt. Taranaki volcano, 280 km from the Auckland CBD, is largest, followed by Okataina volcanic centre, an Auckland volcanic field eruption centred on land, then Tongariro volcanic centre. In terms of human loss, the greatest risk is from an Auckland eruption centred on land. The risks from an Auckland eruption centred in the ocean, Okataina volcanic centre, and Taupo volcano are more than an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, the risk from Mt. Taranaki remains highest, followed by an Auckland eruption centred on land. The next largest risks are from the Okataina and Tongariro volcanic centres, followed by Taupo volcano.Three alternative situations were investigated. As multiple eruptions may occur from the Auckland volcanic field, it was assumed that a local event would involve two eruptions. This increased risk of a local eruption occurring on land so that it was equal to that of an eruption from Mt. Taranaki. It is possible that a future eruption may be of a similar, or larger size, to the previous Rangitoto eruption. Risk was re-calculated for local eruptions based on the extent of hazards from Rangitoto. This increased the risk of lava flow to greater than that of base surge, and the risk from an Auckland land eruption became greatest. The relative probabilities used for Mt. Taranaki volcano and the Auckland volcanic field may only be minimum values. When the probability of these occurring was increased by 50%, there was no change in either ranking.Editorial responsibility: J. S. Gilbert     

Perceptions of hazard and risk on Santorini

Santorini, Greece is a major explosive volcano. The Santorini volcanic complex is composed of two active volcanoes—Nea Kameni and Mt. Columbo. Holocene eruptions have generated a variety of processes and deposits and eruption mechanisms pose significant hazards of various types. It has been recognized that, for major European volcanoes, few studies have focused on the social aspects of volcanic activity and little work has been conducted on public perceptions of hazard, risk and vulnerability. Such assessments are an important element of establishing public education programmes and developing volcano disaster management plans. We investigate perceptions of volcanic hazards on Santorini. We find that most residents know that Nea Kameni is active, but only 60% know that Mt. Columbo is active. Forty percent of residents fear that negative impacts on tourism will have the greatest effect on their community. In the event of an eruption, 43% of residents would try to evacuate the island by plane/ferry. Residents aged >50 have retained a memory of the effects of the last eruption at the island, whereas younger residents have no such knowledge. We find that dignitaries and municipal officers (those responsible for planning and managing disaster response) are informed about the history, hazards and effects of the volcanoes. However, there is no “emergency plan” for the island and there is confusion between various departments (Civil Defense, Fire, Police, etc.) about the emergency decision-making process. The resident population of Santorini is at high risk from the hazards associated with a future eruption.     

Holocene tephrochronology record of large explosive eruptions in the southernmost Patagonian Andes

For regionally widespread Holocene tephra layers in southernmost Patagonia, correlations based on both chemical and chronological data indicate their derivation from five large-volume (>1 km³) explosive eruptions of four different volcanoes in the southernmost Andes. Bulk-tephra and tephra-glass major and trace-element chemistry and Sr isotopic ratios unambiguously distinguish different source volcanoes, and imply that two of the regionally widespread tephra (MB₁ and MB₂) were derived from Mt. Burney (52°S), one (R₁) from Reclus (51°S), one (A₁) from Aguilera (50°S) and one (H₁) from Hudson volcano (46°S). The H₁ tephra derived from the Hudson volcano, which is located at the southern end of the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ; 33–46°S), contains distinctive greenish andesitic glass with FeO > 4.5 wt.% and TiO₂ > 1.2 wt.%. In contrast, rhyolitic glass in tephra derived from the eruptions of Mt. Burney, Reclus and Aguilera volcanoes, which are located in the Andean Austral Volcanic Zone (AVZ; 49–55°S), is clear and transparent and has significantly lower FeO and TiO₂. Tephra derived from these three AVZ volcanoes all contain plagioclase, orthopyroxene, minor clinopyroxene and amphibole. Biotite occurs only in the Aguilera A₁ tephra, which also has the highest bulk-tephra and tephra-glass K₂O and Rb contents. Averages of new and published ¹⁴C ages determined on organic material in soil and sediment samples above and below these tephra constrain the uncalibrated ¹⁴C age of the R₁ eruption of Reclus volcano to 12,685 ± 260 years BP, the MB₁ and MB₂ eruptions of Mt. Burney to 8,425 ± 500 and 3,830 ± 390 years BP, the Hudson H₁ eruption to 6,850 ± 160 years BP, and the A₁ eruption of Aguilera volcano to 3,000 ± 100 years BP. The volume of the largest of these eruptions, H₁ of the Hudson volcano, is estimated as >18 km³. The volume of the Reclus R₁ eruption is estimated at >10 km³, the Aguilera A₁ eruption at between 4 and 9 km³, and the younger Mt. Burney MB₂ eruption at ≥2.8 km³. The volume of the older MB₁ Mt. Burney eruption is the least well constrained, but must have been larger than the younger MB₂ eruption. The data indicate that the frequency of explosive activity of volcanic centers in the AVZ is lower than in the southern SVZ.     

Microgravity and height changes caused by volcanic activity: Four

Microgravity measurements and levelling surveys on volcanoes are not always easy to make, but are useful for studying volcanic processes quantitatively. Gravity changes associated with volcanic activity are not always significant. Precision of microgravity measurements depend critically on the procedures adopted, and those applied in the present paper are described. Levelling technique is now orthodox, and some empirical laws relating ground deformation to volcanic activity are deduced from the accumulated data. Gravity changes occur at the same time and places as ground deformations. The relationship between microgravity and height changes are discussed from the standpoint of analyzing the data obtained on volcanoes. The observational results obtained on four volcanoes in Japan are separately analyzed because each volcano exhibits different patterns of gravity changes and deformations. During the 1977–1982 activity of Usu volcano, deformation was accompanied by microgravity changes frequently observed at a particular benchmark at the base of the volcano for about five years. The gravity changes prove to be not a direct effect of magma movements but to be caused by the deformations of ground strata and aquifers around the benchmark. The 1983 eruption of Miyakejima volcano was associated with local gravity changes around the eruptive fissures due to magma intrusion which was approximately modelled. Similarly the 1986 eruption of Ooshima volcano caused gravity changes on the volcano, but these were poorly correlated with elevation changes and their origins were not uniquely interpreted. To detect gravity changes associated with the activity of Sakurajima volcano, an equigravity point was selected at the north of the volcano besides the gravity points on and around the volcano itself. The probable gradual accumulation of magmas beneath the volcano for eight years is substantiated by observed microgravity and elevation changes.     

A summary of sulfur dioxide emission rate measuremnts from Guatemalan volcanoes

Measurements of the sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emission rate from three Guatemalan volcanoes provide data which are consistent with theoretical and laboratory studies of eruptive and shallow magma chamber processes. In particular, unerupted magma makes a major contribution to the measured SO₂ emission rates at Santiaguito, a continuously erupting dacitic volcanic dome. Varying shallow magma convection rates can explain the variations in SO₂ emission rates at Santiaguito. At Fuego, a basaltic volcano currently in repose, SO₂ emission rate measurements are consistent with a high level magma body that is crystallizing and releasing volatiles. At Pacaya, a continuously erupting basaltic volcano, recent SO₂ emission rate measurements support laboratory simulation studies of strombolian eruptions; these studies indicate that the majority of gas escapes during eruptions and little gas escapes between eruptions.Average SO₂ emission rates over the last 20 years for Santiaguito, Fuego and Pacaya are 80, 160 and 260 Mg/d, respectively. On a global scale, these three volcanoes account for 1% of the annual global volcanic output of SO₂. Santiaguito and Pacaya, together, emit 6% of the total annual SO₂ emitted by continuously erupting volcanoes.Even though SO₂ measurements at these volcanoes have been made infrequently and by different investigators, the collective data help to establish a useful baseline by which to judge future changes. A more complete record of SO₂ emission rates from these volcanoes could lead to a better understanding of their eruption mechanisms and reduce the impact of their future eruptions on Guatemalan society.     

Distal record of multi-sourced tephra in Onepoto Basin,Auckland, New Zealand: implications for volcanic chronology,frequency and hazards

We have documented 80 tephra beds dating from ca. 9.5 to >50 ka, contained within continuously deposited palaeolake sediments from Onepoto Basin, a volcanic explosion crater in Auckland, New Zealand. The known sources for distal (>190 km from vent) tephra include the rhyolitic Taupo Volcanic Centre (4) and Okataina Volcanic Centre (14), and the andesitic Taranaki volcano (40) and Tongariro Volcanic Centre (3). The record provides evidence for four new events between ca. 50 and 28 ka (Mangaone Subgroup) suggesting Okataina was more active than previously known. The tephra record also greatly extends the known northern dispersal of other Mangaone Subgroup tephra. Ten rhyolitic tephra pre-date the Rotoehu eruption (>ca. 50 ka), and some are chemically dissimilar to post-50 ka rhyolites. Some of these older tephra were produced by large-magnitude events; however, their source remains uncertain. Eight tephra from the local basaltic Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) are also identified. Interpolation of sedimentation rates allow us to estimate the timing of 12 major explosive eruptions from Taranaki volcano in the 27.5-9.5-ka period. In addition, 28 older events are recognised. The tephra are trachytic to rhyolitic in composition. All have high K₂O contents (>3 wt%), and there are no temporal trends. This contrasts with the proximal lava record that shows a trend of increasing K₂O with time. By combining the Onepoto tephra record with that of the previously documented Pukaki crater, 15 AVF basaltic fall events are constrained at: 34.6, 30.9, 29.6, 29.6, 25.7, 25.2, 24.2, 23.8, 19.4, 19.4, 15.8 and 14.5 ka, and three pre-50 ka events. This provides some of the best age constraints for the AVF, and the only reliable data for hazard recurrence calculations. The minimum event frequency of both distal and local fall events can be estimated, and demonstrates the Auckland City region is frequently impacted by ash fall from many volcanoes.     

Some regularity in the process of re-awakening of andesite and dacite volcanoes: specific features of the 1982 El Chichón volcano,México reactivation

El Chichón volcano is an andesite stratovolcano in southern México. It erupted in March 1982, after about 550 years of quiescence. The 1982 eruption of El Chichón has not been followed by the growth of a lava dome within the newly formed crater. This is rather anomalous since the construction of a new dome after the destruction of an old one is a common process during the eruptions at andesite and dacite volcanoes. To discuss this anomalous aspect of the El Chichón eruption, some regularity in the process of re-awakening of dormant (here defined as a period of quiescence of more than 100 years) andesite and dacite volcanoes are studied based on the seismic activity recorded at the volcanoes Bezymianny, Mount St. Helens, El Chichón, Unzen, Pinatubo and Soufrière Hills. Three stages were identified in the re-awakening activity of these volcanoes: (1) preliminary seismic activity, leading up to the first phreatic explosion; (2) activity between the first and the largest explosions; (3) post-explosion dome-building process. The eruptions were divided into two groups: low-VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index) and the long duration stage-1 events (Unzen, 1991 and Soufrière Hills volcano, 1995) and high-VEI and the short duration stage-1 events (Bezymianny, 1956; Mount St. Helens, 1980; El Chichón, 1982 and Pinatubo, 1992). The comparative analysis of the seismo-eruptive activity of two eruptions of the second group, the 1980 of Mt. St. Helens and the 1982 of El Chichón, produced an explanation the absence of new dome building during the 1982 eruption of El Chichón volcano. It may be explained in terms of the unusually rapid emission of gas and water from the magmatic and hydrothermal system beneath the volcano during a relatively short sequence of large explosions that could have sharply increased the viscosity of the magma making impossible its exit to the surface.     

Cyclic flank-vent and central-vent eruption patterns

 Many basaltic and andesitic polygenetic volcanoes have cyclic eruptive activity that alternates between a phase dominated by flank eruptions and a phase dominated by eruptions from a central vent. This paper proposes the use of time-series diagrams of eruption sites on each polygenetic volcano and intrusion distances of dikes to evaluate volcano growth, to qualitatively reconstruct the stress history within the volcano, and to predict the next eruption site. In these diagrams the position of an eruption site is represented by the distance from the center of the volcano and the clockwise azimuth from north. Time-series diagrams of Mauna Loa, Kilauea, Kliuchevskoi, Etna, Sakurajima, Fuji, Izu-Oshima, and Hekla volcanoes indicate that fissure eruption sites of these volcanoes migrated toward the center of the volcano linearly, radially, or spirally with damped oscillation, occasionally forming a hierarchy in convergence-related features. At Krafla, terminations of dikes also migrated toward the center of the volcano with time. Eruption sites of Piton de la Fournaise did not converge but oscillated around the center. After the convergence of eruption sites with time, the central eruption phase is started. The intrusion sequence of dikes is modeled, applying crack interaction theory. Variation in convergence patterns is governed by the regional stress and the magma supply. Under the condition that a balance between regional extension and magma supply is maintained, the central vent convergence time during the flank eruption phase is 1–10 years, whereas the flank vent recurrence time during the central eruption phase is greater than 100 years owing to an inferred decrease in magma supply. Under the condition that magma supply prevails over regional extension, the central vent convergence time increases, whereas the flank vent recurrence time decreases owing to inferred stress relaxation. Earthquakes of M≥6 near a volcano during the flank eruption phase extend the central vent convergence time. Earthquakes during the central eruption phase promote recurrence of flank eruptions. Asymmetric distribution of eruption sites around the flanks of a volcano can be caused by local stress sources such as an adjacent volcano. Received: 18 March 1996 / Accepted: 14 January 1997     

Results of geochemical monitoring of the activity of Ebeko volcano (Kurile Islands) used for eruption prediction

The monitoring of the state of active volcanoes, carried out using different parameters, including geochemical, is very important for studies of deep processes and geodynamics. All changes which occur within the crater before eruptions reflect the magma activation and depend on the deep structure of volcano. This paper gives the results of prolonged monitoring of Ebeko volcano, located in the contact zone between the oceanic and continental plates (the Kurile Island Arc). The geochemical method has been used as the basis for eruption prediction because the increase in the activity of the Ebeko in the period from 1963 to 1967 that ended in a phreatic eruption was not preceded by seismic preparation. Investigations carried out at Ebeko volcano give evidence that change of all the chosen geochemical parameters is a prognostic indicator of a forthcoming eruption. This change depends on the type of eruption, and the deep structure and hydrodynamic regime of the volcano.     

The eruptive rate and history of Kuju volcano in Japan during the past 15,000 years

The eruptive history of Kuju volcano on Kyushu, Japan, during the past 15,000 years has been determined by tephrochronology and ¹⁴C dating. Kuju volcano comprises isolated lava domes and cones of hornblende andesite together with aprons of pyroclastic-flow deposits on its flanks. Kuju volcano produced tephras at roughly 1000-yr intervals during the past 5000 years and 70% of the domes and cones have formed during the past 15,000 years. The youngest magmatic activity of Kuju volcano was the 1.6 km³ andesite eruption about 1600 years ago which emplaced a lava dome and block-and-ash flow. Kuju volcano shows a nearly constant long-term eruption rate (0.7–0.4 km³ for 1000 years) during the past 15,000 years. This rate is within the range of estimated average eruption rates of late Quaternary volcanoes in the Japanese Arc, but is about one order of magnitude higher than the eruption rate of Unzen volcano. Kuju volcano has been in phreatic eruption since October 1995. The late Quaternary history of Kuju indicates that it poses a significant volcanic hazard, primarily due to block-and-ash flows from collapsing lava domes.     

THE HISTORICAL RECORDS OF VOLCANIC ERUPTION IN THE KOREAN PENINSULA

The historical document record is of vital significance to determine the volcanic eruption history age in the volcanology research and it cannot be replaced by ¹⁴C dating and other methods. The volcanoes are widely distributed in the northeast area of China, but there is lack of relevant historical records. However, there are the records of the volcanic eruption in the historical documents of Goryeo Dynasty(AD918-1392)and Joseon Dynasty(AD1391-1910)in the Korean Peninsula which is separated by a river with China only. Some of the records have been widely used as important information to the research of Changbaishan Tianchi volcano eruption history by researchers both at home and abroad, but they have different opinions. On the basis of the historical documents in the Korean Peninsula, that is, the History of Goryeo Dynasty and the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty so on, the phenomena of volcanic eruptions, including the intuitive eruptive events and the doubtful volcanic eruption phenomenon such as "the ash fall", "the white hair fall", "the sky fire", "the dust fall" are investigated and put in order systematically in this paper. The results are as follows:1)The intuitive eruptive events are the 1002AD eruption of Mt. Halla volcano on Jeju Island, Korea Peninsula, and the 1007AD volcanic eruption offshore to the west of Jeju Island, Korea Peninsula, as well as the 1597AD eruption of Mt. Wangtian'e volcano in Changbai County, Jilin Province, China; 2)"The ash fall" is airborne volcanic ash, and those "ash falls" happening in 1265, 1401-1405, 1668, 1673 and 1702AD are possibly the tephra of Changbaishan Tianchi volcano; 3)"The white hair fall" is Pele's hair and it is speculated that the "white hair fall "happening in 1737AD is related to Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic eruption; 4)If regarding "the sky fire" as the volcanic eruption phenomenon, "the sky fire" happening in 1533AD is possibly the Changbaishan volcanic eruption event, and "the sky fire" in 1601-1609AD may be the eruptive event of the Longgang volcano in Jilin Province, China or Changbaishan Tianchi volcano; 5)"The dust fall" is recorded in many historical documents. However, "the dust fall" is not the volcanic ash fall but the phenomenon of loess fall. So, it is improper to determine the eruptive events of Changbaishan Tianchi volcano on the basis of "the dust fall".     

Emergency planning and mitigation at Vesuvius: A new evidence-based approach

Disasters from explosive volcanic eruptions are infrequent and experience in emergency planning and mitigation for such events remains limited. The need for urgently developing more robust methods for risk assessment and decision making in volcanic crises has become increasingly apparent as world populations continue to expand in areas of active explosive volcanism. Nowhere is this more challenging than at Vesuvius, Italy, with hundreds of thousands of people living on the flanks of one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. We describe how a new paradigm, evidence-based volcanology, has been applied in EXPLORIS to contribute to crisis planning and management for when the volcano enters its next state of unrest, as well as in long-term land-use planning. The analytical approach we adopted enumerates and quantifies all the processes and effects of the eruptive hazards of the volcano known to influence risk, a scientific challenge that combines field data on the vulnerability of the built environment and humans in past volcanic disasters with theoretical research on the state of the volcano, and including evidence from the field on previous eruptions as well as numerical simulation modelling of eruptive processes. Formal probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty and a decision analysis approach have provided the basis for the development of an event tree for a future range of eruption types with probability paths and hypothetical casualty outcomes for risk assessment. The most likely future eruption scenarios for emergency planning were derived from the event tree and elaborated upon from the geological and historical record. Modelling the impacts in these scenarios and quantifying the consequences for the circumvesuvian area provide realistic assessments for disaster planning and for showing the potential risk–benefit of mitigation measures, the main one being timely evacuation, but include for consideration protecting buildings against dilute, low dynamic pressure surges, and temporary roof supports in the most vulnerable buildings, as well as hardening infrastructure and lifelines. This innovative work suggests that risk-based methods could have an important role in crisis management at cities on volcanoes and small volcanic islands.     

Review of Microgravity Observations at Mt. Etna: A Powerful Tool to Monitor and Study Active Volcanoes

Microgravity observations at Mt. Etna have been routinely performed as both discrete (since 1986) and continuous (since 1998) measurements. In addition to describing the methodology for acquiring and reducing gravity data from Mt. Etna, this paper provides a collection of case studies aimed at demonstrating the potential of microgravity to investigate the plumbing system of an active volcano and detect forerunners to paroxysmal volcanic events. For discrete gravity measurements, results from 1994–1996 and 2001 are reported. During the first period, the observed gravity changes are interpreted within the framework of the Strombolian activity which occurred from the summit craters. Gravity changes observed during the first nine months of 2001 are directly related to subsurface mass redistributions which preceded, accompanied and followed the July-August 2001 flank eruption of Mt. Etna. Two continuous gravity records are discussed: a 16-month (October 1998 to February 2000) sequence and a 48-hour (26–28 October, 2002) sequence, both from a station within a few kilometers of the volcano's summit. The 16-month record may be the longest continuous gravity sequence ever acquired at a station very close to the summit zone of an active volcano. By cross analyzing it with contemporaneous discrete observations along a summit profile of stations, both the geometry of a buried source and its time evolution can be investigated. The shorter continuous sequence encompasses the onset of an eruption from a location only 1.5 km from the gravity station. This gravity record is useful for establishing constraints on the characteristics of the intrusive mechanism leading to the eruption. In particular, the observed gravity anomaly indicates that the magma intrusion occurred “passively” within a fracture system opened by external forces.     

Magmatic and phreatomagmatic volcanic activity at Mt. Takahe, West Antarctica, based on tephra layers in the Byrd ice core and field observations at Mt. Takahe

The morphology, grain size characteristics and composition of ash particles in 30 ka to 150 ka tephra layers from the Byrd ice core were examined to characterize the eruptions which produced them and to test the suggestion that they were erupted from Mt. Takahe, a shield volcano in Marie Byrd Land, West Antarctica. Volcanic deposits at Mt. Takahe were examined for evidence of recent activity which could correlate with the tephra layers in the ice core.Coarse- and fine-ash layers have been recognized in the Byrd ice core. The coarse-ash layers have a higher mass concentration than the fine-ash layers and are characterized by fresh glass shards > 50 μm diameter, many containing elongate pipe vesicles. The fine-ash layers have a lower mass concentration and contain a greater variety of particles, typically < 20 μm diameter. Many of these particles are aggregate grains composed of glass and crystal fragments showing S and Cl surface alteration. The grain-size distributions of the coarse and fine-ash layers overlap, in part because of the aggregate nature of grains in the fine-ash layers. The coarse-ash layers are interpreted as having formed by magmatic eruption whereas the fine-ash layers are believed to be hydrovolcanic in origin.Mt. Takahe is the favored source for the tephra because: (a) chemical analyses of samples from the volcano are distinctive, being peralkaline trachyte, and similar in composition to the analyzed tephra; (b) Mt. Takahe is a young volcano (< 0.3 Ma); (c) pyroclastic deposits on Mt. Takahe indicate styles of eruption similar to that inferred for the ice core tephra; and (d) Mt. Takahe is only about 350 km from the calculated site of tephra deposition.A speculative eruptive history for Mt. Takahe is established by combining observations from Mt. Takahe and the Byrd ice core tephra. Initial eruptions at Mt. Takahe were subglacial and then graded into alternating subaerial and subglacial activity. The tephra suggest alternating subaerial magmatic and hydrovolcanic eruptions from 30 to 20 ka B.P., followed by a sustained period of hydrovolcanic eruptions from 20 to 14 ka B.P., which peaked at 18 ka B.P.     

Shallow seismicity at Montagne Pelée volcano,Martinique, Lesser Antilles

Continuous seismic monitoring at Martinique since the 1902 eruption of the Montagne Pelée volcano did not detect local earthquakes for the first 70 years. For the only eruption which occurred in this time span in 1929 the seismograph was 20 km away and of a standard type, not particularly suited for the detection of small-scale local seismicity. Improvement of the monitoring array over the last 15 years with the installation of sensors on the volcano itself allowed the detection of signals of local origin which were interpreted as being due to surface sources, such as rockfalls and landslides. Since December 1985 seismic sources in the volcano itself, i.e. small earthquakes at shallow depth, were identified and located with the aid of a temporary upgrading of the array close to these weak sources. Such an onset of local seismicity could not have been detected with previous seismic equipment; such episodes of seismicity in the volcano might have occurred in the past, apparently quiescent history of the volcano as the reinterpretation of seismograms of some events in 1976 would indicate, without evolving to more important volcanic phenomena. For seismographs on volcanoes the constant upgrading of observation capabilities is certainly perferred to a strict continuity of standard observations.     

Tyatya Volcano, southwestern Kuril arc: Recent eruptive activity inferred from widespread tephra

Abstract Tyatya Volcano, situated in Kunashir Island at the southwestern end of Kuril Islands, is a large composite stratovolcano and one of the most active volcanoes in the Kuril arc. The volcanic edifice can be divided into the old and the young ones, which are composed of rocks of distinct magma types, low‐ and medium‐K series, respectively. The young volcano has a summit caldera with a central cone. Recent eruptions have occurred at the central cone and at the flank vents of the young volcano. We found several distal ash layers at the volcano and identified their ages and sources, that is, tephras of ad 1856, ad 1739, ad 1694 and ca 1 Ka derived from three volcanoes of Hokkaido, Japan, and caad 969 from Baitoushan Volcano of China/North Korea. These could provide good time markers to reveal the eruptive history of the central cone, which had continued intermittently with Strombolian eruptions and lava flow effusions since before 1 Ka. Relatively explosive eruptions have occurred three times at the cone during the past 1000 years. We revealed that, topographically, the youngest lava flows from the cone are covered not by the tephra of ad 1739 but by that of ad 1856. This evidence, together with a report of dense smoke rising from the summit in ad 1812, suggests that the latest major eruption with lava effusion from the central cone occurred in this year. In 1973, after a long period of dormancy, short‐lived phreatomagmatic eruptions began to occur from fissure vents at the northern flank of the young volcano. This was followed by large eruptions of Strombolian to sub‐Plinian types occurring from several craters at the southern flank. The 1973 activity is evaluated as Volcanic Explosivity Index = 4 (approximately 0.2 km³), the largest eruption during the 20th century in the southwestern Kuril arc. The rocks of the central cone are strongly porphyritic basalt and basaltic andesite, whereas the 1973 scoria is aphyric basalt, suggesting that magma feeding systems are definitely different between the summit and flank eruptions.     

Geochemistry of fluids associated with the 1995–1996 eruption of Mt. Ruapehu, New Zealand: signatures and processes in the magmatic-hydrothermal system

The 1995–1996 eruption of Mt. Ruapehu has provided a number of insights into the geochemical processes operating within the magmatic-hydrothermal system of this volcano. Both pre-eruption degassing of the rising magma and its eventual intrusion into the convective zone of the hydrothermal system beneath the lake were clearly reflected in lake water compositions. The eruptions of September–October 1995 expelled the lake, and provided the first-ever opportunity to characterise gas discharges from this volcano. The fumarolic discharges revealed compositions typical of andesite volcanoes and strong interaction with the enclosing meteoric and hydrothermal system fluids. Some 1.1 MT of SO₂ gas was released from the volcano between September 1995 and December 1996, whereas ca. twice this amount (2.2 MT equivalent SO₂) was erupted as soluble (i.e. leachable) oxyanions of sulphur. Significantly more sulphur was released from the volcano over this period than can be accounted for from the magma volume actually erupted. The evidence suggests that a sizable component of the evolved sulphur was remobilised from the long-lived hydrothermal system within the volcano during the 1995–1996 activity.     

A desktop image processing and photogrammetric method for rapid volcanic hazard mapping: application to air-photo interpretation of Mount Pelée,Martinique

 A desktop image processing and photogrammetric method was developed for digitizing black-and-white aerial photographs. The technique was applied to airborne optical images of Mt. Pelée, Martinique, a historically active volcano in the tropical Lesser Antilles island arc, to evaluate its utility for rapid geologic mapping and hazard assessment in vegetated areas. The digital approach provides several advantages over traditional air-photo interpretation by allowing for change detection in time-series images, morphologic characterization, development of digital elevation models from stereopairs, and geo-referencing with other digital data sets. A digital mosaic of Mt. Pelée was created from air photos acquired in 1951, which covered the region affected by the 1902 eruption. Severe mismatches occurred along edges of adjacent photographs prior to correction, which precluded quantitative morphologic analysis of the volcanic edifice. Geometric corrections and histogram equalization of digitized air photos allowed creation of a continuous mosaic. Comparison of the mosaic and a map based on differences in gray scale and texture to a volcanostratigraphic map revealed that not only the various deposits produced during the 1902 event were easily differentiated, but that older eruptive products were identified, suggesting that this approach may be used for rapid hazard evaluation of historically active tropical volcanoes. Received: 22 January 1996 / Accepted: 26 July 1996