海南岛西部土地沙漠化时空模拟及虚拟政策实验

分析海南岛西部土地沙漠化演变过程及其动力机制,构建沙漠化元胞自动机模型,预测2010年海南岛西部土地沙漠化状态,进行两种典型的虚拟政策实验。结果表明:1)基于元胞自动机技术建立土地沙漠化防治政策虚拟实验室,可对多方案政策主导下的土地沙漠化时空过程进行有效仿真、预测和可视化表达;2)未来5~10 a若仍维持目前的土地开发模式和政策状态,海南岛西部土地沙漠化将有较明显的扩展倾向,必须实施有利于沙漠化逆转的政策措施。     

被越南侵占的中国南沙群岛岛礁的时空分布特征及战略格局

以南海海域200 m等深线水深图和南沙群岛海域11幅1﹕250 000海图以及1﹕800 000海图为基础数据,使用ArcGIS 10.1,采用墨卡托投影,CGCS 2000坐标系对海图进行配准并进行矢量化处理,提取图中水深点、岛礁位置信息、礁坪、礁体位置信息。通过对被越南侵占的南沙群岛29座岛礁的空间分析,认为被占岛礁在空间上存在“一纵一横”的空间分布特征,南沙群岛被占岛礁南子岛、景宏岛、南威岛、六门礁从N至W构成了4个核心和广雅滩1个次核心的岛礁空间分布战略格局。通过对被占岛礁面积、礁坪面积及礁体面积进行插值处理,叠加分析,按重分类方法将插值结果按数值大小划分为5类,予以揭示被占岛礁的重要程度及未来开发潜力。通过分析越南侵占岛礁的岛屿面积与礁体面积比值,指出鸿庥岛、景宏岛、西礁、中礁、毕生礁、六门礁、柏礁有较大填海造陆潜力的岛礁。     

涠洲岛活珊瑚覆盖率变化的仿真分析

为了更好地理解环境参数对珊瑚礁生态的影响,以涠洲岛为研究区域,结合历史文献所记载的活珊瑚覆盖率（Live Coral Cover, LCC）资料,利用MODIS 2003-2015年遥感观测获取的环境参数,即叶绿素a质量浓度（Chl-a）、海表温度（SST）和光合有效辐射（PAR）,探讨LCC变化与环境参数之间的关系,并建立了LCC变化模型。首先计算出每个环境参数3~10个月的移动平均值,并用皮尔逊相关系数计算得到与LCC变化相关性最大的环境参数值;然后考虑环境参数值之间、前后不同年份的LCC之间可能存在的自相关性,利用主成分分析法消除这些自相关之后,再利用非线性约束优化方法估计LCC与环境参数值关系的经验模型。该模型的系数为Chl-a（-0.109 04）、SST（-0.061 62）和PAR（0.013 58）,据此推测,人类活动所造成的海水富营养化可能是涠洲岛LCC下降的最主要原因。最后,对涠洲岛珊瑚礁未来的发展与变化进行仿真和预测,结果表明：涠洲岛在环境不变的条件下其LCC会稳定在10%左右,而在当前气候变暖的条件下其珊瑚有可能会在2120年左右存在开始消失的风险。     

北部湾涠洲岛珊瑚礁的研究历史、现状与特色

分析多年来涠洲岛珊瑚礁的研究成果,得出以下认识：1）近20多年来涠洲岛活珊瑚覆盖率呈快速下降趋势,北部活珊瑚覆盖率由2005年的63.70%下降到2010年的12.10%,东南部由1991年的60.00%下降到2010年的17.58%,西南部由1991年的80.00%下降到2010年的8.45%;2）处于相对高纬度区域的涠洲岛珊瑚礁,是研究全球气候变暖背景下珊瑚向高纬度或相对高纬度海域迁移的珊瑚避难所这一假说的理想区域;3）涠洲岛的珊瑚礁直接发育于火山基岩之上,是检验达尔文关于环礁成因假说的理想场所;4）涠洲岛珊瑚礁主要受到极端气候事件与人类活动的双重影响,是研究珊瑚礁响应人类活动和极端气候事件的天然实验室。因此,涠洲岛珊瑚礁除了与其他珊瑚礁一样具备重要的资源、生态与环境特征之外,还具有独特的科学研究价值,需要引起高度重视并进行有效保护,为南海珊瑚的北向迁移创造条件。     

海南岛,台湾岛河流水化学比较研究

本文对我国两大岛屿——海南岛和台湾岛河流的主要离子化学及河流的物理和化学侵蚀率进行了比较研究,对两岛河流水化学的共同点和差异及其成因进行了探讨。研究表明,无论是河水离子总量,还是物理侵蚀率和化学侵蚀率,台湾岛均显著地高于海南岛。两岛河水中氯离子含量、物理侵蚀率和化学侵蚀率均为东部水系高于西部水系。     

西沙群岛和涠洲岛气候变化特征 及其与近岸陆地的对比

采用1959―2014年中国西沙站和涠洲岛站及其临近陆地台站的基本气象观测资料,分析了2个海岛的气候变化特征及其与近岸陆地的差异。结果表明：1）近56年西沙和涠洲岛及近岸陆地气温变化均呈上升趋势,西沙增暖速率（0.19℃/10 a）大于涠洲岛（0.104℃/10 a）。显著的差异出现在近10年,西沙持续增暖（0.38℃/10 a）,而涠洲岛气温却呈下降趋势（-0.48℃/10 a）。从季节变化上,2个海岛都有春季越来越暖、冬季越来越冷的趋势。与周围陆地的气温相比,2个海岛的气温均高于近海陆地,但增温速率却小于近岸陆地。2）分析近56年降水量的变化,发现海岛降水量、降水强度和降水天数均小于陆地。受冬、夏季风转换的控制,海岛及近岸陆地有旱季、雨季的划分,且近半个世纪以来降水量波动大、变化趋势不显著,但伴随降水天数的减少,降水强度呈显著增长趋势。对比2个海岛近10年的降水变化特征,发现西沙站的旱季有越来越旱的趋势,涠洲岛及近岸陆地无论旱季、雨季降水量都有增加的趋势,表现为湿润化的趋势。     

南极特拉诺瓦湾下降风特征

南极罗斯海特拉诺瓦湾(Terra Nova Bay)是强下降风汇集区之一。采用高分辨率南极中尺度预报系统(Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System,AMPS)资料和特拉诺瓦湾难言岛Manuela自动气象站实测数据,分析了特拉诺瓦湾及其附近地区的下降风特征。AMPS对难言岛地区风速和气温有较好的模拟能力,但风向比实测值偏西约30°。难言岛地区风速从1月开始迅速增大,4—9月风力平均为8级以上。难言岛夏季1月份的风速变化滞后气温变化约3 h;冬季7月份风向稳定为西至西南。特拉诺瓦湾及其附近地区下降风来自西岸海拔较高的冰盖,其风向的空间分布特征基本几乎不随季节而变化。下降风风速有显著的季节演变特征,11月至次年1月较小,3—9月风速较大。特拉诺瓦湾西岸等几处冰川地带在冬季是强风汇集区,难言岛处于Reeves冰川下降风汇集区中。该汇集区上边界和南北两侧均有清晰的分界线,风速较强区从地面延伸至650—800 m高处,风速最大值距离地面高度约为50—200 m。强下降风气流受难言岛地形阻挡,风速有所减弱,气流越过难言岛之后,风速再次加强。特拉诺瓦湾地区下降风流动过程中近地面气团位势温度变化幅度很小,表明下降风在从内陆高原到沿岸地区的流动是干绝热过程。     

A Compilation of Radiocarbon Dates from Disko Bugt,Central West Greenland/Meteorological Observations in 1996 at the Arctic Station,Qeqertarsuaq (Godhavn), Central West Greenland/A Discussion on Pingos in Mellemfjord,Disko, Central West Greenland/Open System Pingos in Mellemfjord,Disko, Central West Greenland: A Reply to Gurney and Worsley

188 new and previously published radiocarbon dates on Holocene material from Disko Bugt, central West Greenland, are presented together with relevant informations (laboratory number, place name, dated material, geografic coordinates, altitude and δ¹³C-value) about the dates.

In October 1990 an automatic weather station was established at the Arctic station (65 °15′N,53 °31′W), Qeqertarsuaq (Godhavn), Central West Greenland. The Station register parameters each 20 min., and the parameters have been described in an earlier paper in this journal by Nielsen et al. (1995). The present paper summarises main points of the climate during 1996.

Open system, or more correctly, hydraulic pingos, are genetically poorly understood. A continuing problem concerns their need for a perennial groundwater supply (intra- or sub-permafrost). This has to be maintained despite the existence of continuous permafrost in many areas where they are located. Recent work on Disko Island has suggested a new type of hydraulic pingo developing only in a “marsh environment”. It is argued that the marsh setting is not relevant to the formation of these features and that they are simply hydraulic pingos.

Abstract

A group of marsh initiated open system pingo remnants from the Iterdlagssûp kûgssua valley mouth, in Mellemfjord, Disko Island, Central West Greenland was described in Christiansen (1995). Gurney and Worsley (1997) state that the location of this group of pingo remnants in the Iterdlagssûp kûgssua valley mouth is of no relevance to their genesis, and that they presumably were the result of an assumed late Holocene sea level regression, causing permafrost to be established in the valley bottom. In this reply the arguments by Gurney and Worsley (1997) on the Iterdlagssûp kûgssua valley pingos are commented, and it is argued by way of sea level information, frost penetration and water supply that the special setting must indeed have caused pingo initiation and growth. Furthermore, the area has experienced a relative sea level rise during the late Holocene.     

The state and dynamics of the soil-vegetation cover on small islands of the gulf of peter the great (the Sea of Japan)

A comprehensive investigation of the current state of soil-vegetation cover has been conducted. A pattern of reconstruction of the temporal dynamics for 4 small islands in the Gulf of Peter the Great has been obtained. Sequential changes in vegetation from polydominant broad-leaved to coniferous-broad-leaved forests on Engel’m, Lavrov and Shkot Islands observed are probably bound up with climate factors in the beginning of the Late Holocene. The transition from coniferous-broad-leaved to sparse broad-leaved forest has been probably caused by recent anthropogenic influences. The coniferous-broad-leaved forests growing on podsol soils (Naumov Island) are presently dominant, what is one of characteristics of an anthropogenically transformed ecosystem.     

Small unmanned aerial vehicles for aeromagnetic surveys and their flights in the South Shetland Islands,Antarctica

We developed small computer-controlled unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, Ant-Plane) using parts and technology designed for model airplanes. These UAVs have a maximum flight range of 300–500 km. We planned aeromagnetic and aerial photographic surveys using the UAVs around Bransfield Basin, Antarctica, beginning from King George Island. However, we were unable to complete these flights due to unsuitable weather conditions and flight restrictions. Successful flights were subsequently conducted from Livingston Island to Deception Island in December 2011. This flight covered 302.4 km in 3:07:08, providing aeromagnetic and aerial photographic data from an altitude of 780 m over an area of 9 × 18 km around the northern region of Deception Island. The resulting magnetic anomaly map of Deception Island displayed higher resolution than the marine anomaly maps published already. The flight to South Bay in Livingston Island successfully captured aerial photographs that could be used for assessment of glacial and sea-ice conditions. It is unclear whether the cost-effectiveness of the airborne survey by UAV is superior to that of manned flight. Nonetheless, Ant-Plane 6-3 proved to be highly cost-effective for the Deception Island flight, considering the long downtime of the airplane in the Antarctic storm zone.     

1999/2000年夏季南极普里兹湾及湾口区叶绿素a和初级生产力

20 0 0年 1月 1 9日至 2 7日在 70°3 0′E- 75°3 0′E,6 2°S以南的南极普里兹湾近岸陆架区的陆隆向深海区设三条纵断面进行浮游生物现存量、真光层深度和光合作用速率的现场观测。并在冰间湖站 - 1 2进行连续昼夜观测。结果表明 ,观测海区叶绿素 a浓度高值位于近岸海湾、冰间湖和测区中部的陆坡区 ;陆坡中部站 - 6和 - 8,0 - 5 0 m的浅水层为叶绿素 a高值区 (2 .1 6- 5 .0 8μg/dm3 )。各测站平均叶绿素 a浓度 2 5 m次表层 (1 .49± 1 .6 1 μg/dm3 )高于表层 (1 .1 4±1 .1 9μg/dm3 ) ,5 0 m以下更深层的浓度随深度的增加而降低 ,2 0 0 m层叶绿素 a浓度仅 0 .0 3±0 .0 2μg/dm3 。昼夜观测结果表明表层叶绿素 a浓度在南极夏季的午后出现最大值 ,晨间出现最小值 ;2 5 m以浅水层的叶绿素 a浓度明显高于深层水 ,与封冰消融冰藻的释放有关。测区真光层潜在初级生产力为 0 .76 - 1 2 .5 9mg C/(m3· h) ,平均值为 4.0 1± 4.0 7mg C/(m3· h) ;海湾和陆架区现场生产力均超过 1 .5 g C/(m2 · d) ,陆坡、深海区约 0 .5 g C/(m2 · d)。高生产力位于高生物量的近岸海湾、陆架冰间湖区。光合作用同化数在 0 .88- 3 .1 0 mg C/(mg Chla· h)。表层叶绿素a浓度与海水中溶解氧浓度呈紧密相关 (Y=0 .0 5 9X     

潮汐作用下的滨海浅层地下水水质变化

利用雷州半岛东部滨海浅层地下水的逐时采样数据,分析潮汐作用下该区浅层地下水水质变化特征,结果表明：1）研究区地下水中主要离子均以Na⁺和Cl^-为主,K⁺和 CO₃ ^2-的质量浓度则低至可以忽略。其中,东海岛地下水水质较为稳定,各离子不具有明显的相关性,而南渡河和新寮地下水中各离子的变化具有准同步特征。2）南渡河地下水对于土壤的平均碱化危害程度最低,其次是东海岛,新寮地下水对于土壤的平均碱化危害程度最高,且大潮期尤甚。东海岛地下水对土壤的碱化危害程度随潮汐变化不大;南渡河和新寮则表现出大潮期地下水的土壤碱化危害程度大于小潮期的特点,意味着潮动力的增强导致海水入侵强度变大,进而加剧了地下水对土壤的碱化危害。3）就地下水受海水入侵强度而言,东海岛的平均受侵强度最大,但随潮动力变化不大,危害具有常态化特征;新寮地下水大潮期受海水入侵的最大强度高于东海岛,但平均危害则小于后者;南渡河受海水入侵程度最低,部分时段不存在海水入侵情况。4）各监测井地下水中Na⁺和Cl^-具有同源性,是溶解性固体总量（TDS）的主要成分,也是引起TDS 变化的主要原因。就TDS 变化的剧烈程度而言,南渡河的水质波动最为显著,其次是新寮,东海岛水质维持在稳定的水平。5）南渡河和新寮可以通过监测地下水电导率的长期变化间接实现对水体矿化度及Na⁺和Cl^-的长期监测;东海岛则不适合做精确的点监测,但可以考虑进行区间监测。     

Composition of plagioclases in volcanic rocks of King George Island, Antarctica with reference to the petrogenetic significance

Plagioclases occur mainly as phenocrysts in volcanic rocks of King George Island, South Shetland Islands, West Antarctica. In basaltic andesites and andesites of Keller Peninsula and Ullman Spur (Admiralty Bay), they are high structure state labradorite andesines; and in high Al basalts and basaltic andesites of Barton and Weaver peninsulas (Maxwell Bay), they are high structure state bytownite anorthites.∑[WT9.BZ]REE, La/Yb ratios and δEu values of plagioclases from Admiralty Bay are higher than those from Maxwell Bay. All plagioclases have rather identical chondrite normalized transitional element distribution patterns, probably reflecting that crystal structure rather than composition of plagioclase controls their diversity. Compositions of plagioclases depend chiefly on those of their host rocks, compositional differences of plagioclases reveal that basaltic magmas in the Admiralty Bay area are more evolved than in the Maxwell Bay area.     

Playing Lotto with Rotto? Tourism,the environment and gambling with the ethos of a Western Australian island

Rottnest Island is a popular holiday destination offshore from Perth, the capital city of Western Australia. Rottnest (or Rotto) attracts approximately 500 000 visitors annually. The island is managed by a statutory government authority, the Rottnest Island Authority (RIA), for the purposes of providing recreation and holiday facilities and services, and protecting its natural and cultural values. While there are advantages in management by one body, there appears to be a conflict in managing both the tourism business and the environment, largely as a result of funding issues. While further tourism development would boost the RIA's self-funded operating budget, increased pressures may compromise the island environment and the Rottnest ethos, which revolves around a relaxed and casual social ambiance. The RIA aims to develop Rottnest as a model for sustainability, but are dilemmas surrounding economic sustainability potentially risking the island's environmental and social sustainability? This paper concludes that in the pursuit of economic returns from tourism, Rottnest Island's environmental and social values face an uncertain future.     

Relict shoreline features at Cockburn Island,Ontario

Cockburn Island, Ontario (45°55′ N, 83°20′ W), holds at least six sets of elevated lake bluffs, scarps and bar deposits that mark distinctive water planes above the Nipissing Great Lakes water plane (∼198 m). These relict shoreline features occur at elevations that correspond closely with the elevations of others at nearby St. Joseph Island and in eastern upper Michigan. Together, the elevations and relative locations of steep relict bluffs suggest a proto-Cockburn Island once interrupted the surface of proglacial Lake Algonquin. The islet appears to have emerged and grown through a period of uplift and a sequence of lowering water levels. The highest relict shoreline (280.2 m) is correlated with the Main phase of Lake Algonquin. Lower shorelines at Cockburn Island cannot be correlated consistently, so additional work is required. This is the seventh in a series of ten papers published in this special issue of Journal of Paleolimnology. These papers were presented at the 47th Annual Meeting of the International Association for Great Lakes Research (2004), held at the University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. P.F. Karrow and C.F.M. Lewis were guest editors of this special issue.     

中国南极维多利亚地新站气象特征分析

中国南极新站选择在维多利亚地特拉诺瓦湾难言岛上进行建设,其气象环境状况是开展科学研究的基础工作,也是考察队员生命安全保障的基础资料。因此,通过2013年度难言岛气象站的观测资料,结合附近地区历史气象资料,对该区域气象要素特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)由于地处罗斯海与东南极冰盖交界处,难言岛年均气压为987.8 h Pa,与中山站非常接近;(2)年均温为-16.1℃,最低气温为-39.3℃,且冬季气温波动较大,标准差可达±6.0℃;(3)年均相对湿度为42.1%,年均比湿为0.6 g·kg-1且冬季比湿极低,空气非常干燥,降水量非常低;(4)盛行风向为WNW,5—7级风出现频率超过50%,但夏季风速明显低于冬季风速,一般不超过8.0 m·s~(-1),有利于中国在夏季开展工程建设和补给;(5)难言岛年总辐射量为3 342.8 MJ·m~(-2),明显低于中山站,但两站反照率非常接近。     

Late Holocene Adélie penguin population dynamics at Zolotov Island,Vestfold Hills,Antarctica

We inferred late Holocene Adélie penguin occupation history and population dynamics on Zolotov Island, Vestfold Hills, Antarctica, using geochemical data from a dated ornithogenic sediment core (ZOL4). Radiocarbon dates on fossil penguin bones in the core indicate that Adélie penguins occupied the island as early as 1,800 years before present (yr BP), following the retreat of the Sørsdal glacier. This occupation began ~1,200 years later than that observed at Ardley Island and King George Island, in the South Shetland Islands. Phosphorus was identified as the most indicative bio-element for penguin guano in core ZOL4, and was used to infer past penguin population dynamics. Around 1,800 years ago, the Adélie penguin populations at both Zolotov Island and Ardley Island increased rapidly and reached their highest levels ~1,000 yr BP. For the past ~900 years, the penguin populations at Zolotov Island have shown a general rising trend, with fluctuations, while those at Ardley Island have shown a moderate decreasing trend. The Adélie penguin populations at both Ardley Island and Zolotov Island showed a clear decline ~300 years ago, which we interpret as a response to the Little Ice Age, or a neoglacial cooling event.     

Microsimulation of Hurricane Evacuation Strategies of Galveston Island

This article investigates the effectiveness of simultaneous and staged evacuation strategies for hurricane evacuations of Galveston Island using agent-based microsimulation techniques. In the simultaneous strategy the entire population is informed to evacuate simultaneously, whereas in a staged evacuation strategy, people are informed to evacuate in a sequence. The results suggest that (1) the most efficient staged evacuation strategy can help reduce the evacuation time for Galveston Island by approximately one hour, (2) previous studies might have underestimated the evacuation time of Galveston, and (3) an evacuation under the rapid response assumption does not necessarily lead to an effective evacuation.     

近40ka来海南岛海岸沙地气候与环境演变

选择海南岛东、西海岸具有代表性和高分辨率特征的木堆、棋子湾等地层剖面,在建立年代序列的基础上,对风成沙粒度组成与参数、SC/D值及磁化率等代用指标的研究表明,末次冰期间冰阶时气候相对温暖,滨海平原上河流三角洲前移,湿地、沙丘与交错分布;末次盛冰期时气候干凉,海岸沙地上形成了多道平行延伸的古沙垄(丘),并与大陆架古沙丘形成连续性沉积;末次冰消期时气候快速变化,古沙垄(丘)或加积发育或固定成壤;全新世以来气候回暖并波动变化,次生沙丘经历多次半固定、固定－沙丘加积、活化的演变。     

Perceptions of local community members towards foreign aid: A case study of Vava'u,Tonga

Foreign aid has arguably played a significant role in the economic development of the Pacific Island countries. Tonga is deemed to have succeeded in implementing the principles of the Paris Declaration of 2005, especially Ownership, Alignment and Harmonisation, by aid funding channelled through state institutions. Nevertheless, it is still unknown if the aid effect has reached civil society, and how community members perceive aid. This article examines the perceptions of community members towards foreign aid, using the case study of the archipelago of Vava'u, Tonga.