Impacts of climate change on flow regime and sequential threats to riverine ecosystem in the source region of the Yellow River

Climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on flow regime in the Upper Yellow River (UYR) basin that is one of the most important biodiversity hotspots in the world. These impacts will most possibly exert negative effects on the habitat availability for riverine species. Thus, it is necessary to understand the alteration of river flow regime under climate scenarios. In this paper, we use the modified hydrological model HBV in conjunction with three general circulation models under three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) to address changes in flow regime under climate change for the UYR basin in the mid-term (2050s) and end-term (2080s) of the twenty-first century. Flow regime is quantified using the Indicators of hydrological alteration approach. Thereafter, the potential threats to riverine ecosystem in the UYR basin are identified based on the projected alterations of various flow characteristics and their ecological influences. The results showed that the magnitude of monthly flow would increase during the dry period. The date of the annual 1-day minimum streamflow will likely shift toward earlier time under different scenarios, and significant increases in magnitude of annual minimum flow of different durations were detected under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios in the 2080s. In addition, assessments of the modification degree of the overall flow regime revealed that climate change would remarkably modify (medium level) the overall flow regime in the UYR basin, particularly by the end of the twenty-first century or under the high emission scenarios. Besides, destruction of habitat and reduced availability of food induced by substantially increased hydrological instability in the 2080s would make two endangered fishes more vulnerable in the UYR basin. These findings provide insights into potential adaptive countermeasures for water resource management and environmental system restoration in the Upper Yellow River.     

气候变化对澜沧江下游梯级电站发电及生态调度的影响

近年来伴随气候变化地表径流呈极端化分布，为水电生态调度带来了挑战。为探究气候变化对电站发电和生态调度的影响、发电和生态目标间协调关系对气候变化的响应，以澜沧江下游梯级电站为例，结合多模式多情景未来径流预估结果及水库发电调度模型，针对发电及生态效益目标实施了单/多目标最优化。结果表明:在气候变化影响下，未来澜沧江径流总量将有所增加，水文变率将显著增强，河道生态所受影响也将增大；电站发电保证率及生态流量破坏率指标受不同调度方案的影响程度较气候变化影响更高，未来发电和生态效益的冲突依然存在；气候变化导致的水文变率增强可加剧发电与生态效益间的冲突，导致保持现有发电效益的同时增大对河道生态的影响。     

气候变化对澜沧江下游梯级电站发电及生态调度的影响

近年来伴随气候变化地表径流呈极端化分布，为水电生态调度带来了挑战。为探究气候变化对电站发电和生态调度的影响、发电和生态目标间协调关系对气候变化的响应，以澜沧江下游梯级电站为例，结合多模式多情景未来径流预估结果及水库发电调度模型，针对发电及生态效益目标实施了单/多目标最优化。结果表明：在气候变化影响下，未来澜沧江径流总量将有所增加，水文变率将显著增强，河道生态所受影响也将增大；电站发电保证率及生态流量破坏率指标受不同调度方案的影响程度较气候变化影响更高，未来发电和生态效益的冲突依然存在；气候变化导致的水文变率增强可加剧发电与生态效益间的冲突，导致保持现有发电效益的同时增大对河道生态的影响。     

Future climate change impact evaluation on hydrologic processes in the Bharalu and Basistha basins using SWAT model

Urbanisation and climate change can have adverse effects on the streamflow and water balance components in river basins. This study focuses on the understanding of different hydrologic responses to climate change between urban and rural basins. The comprehensive semi-distributed hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate how the streamflow and water balance components vary under future climate change on Bharalu (urban basin) and Basistha (rural basin) River basins near the Brahmaputra River in India based on precipitation, temperature and geospatial data. Based on data collected in 1990–2012, it is found that 98.78% of the water yield generated for the urban Bharalu River basin is by surface runoff, comparing to 75% of that for the rural Basistha basin. Comparison of various hydrologic processes (e.g. precipitation, discharge, water yield, surface runoff, actual evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration) based on predicted climate change scenarios is evaluated. The urban Bharalu basin shows a decrease in streamflow, water yield, surface runoff, actual evapotranspiration in contrast to the rural Basistha basin, for the 2050s and 2090s decades. The average annual discharge will increase a maximum 1.43 and 2.20 m³/s from the base period for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) such as 2.6 and 8.5 pathways in Basistha River and it will decrease a maximum 0.67 and 0.46 m³/s for Bharalu River, respectively. This paper also discusses the influence of sensitive parameters on hydrologic processes, future issues and challenges in the rural and urban basins.     

气候变化对江河流量变化趋势影响研究进展

气候变化对基于自然稳定气候假定的流量变化趋势的检测和水资源评价方法提出了挑战。在流量变化趋势的检测中分离出气候变化的影响,不仅对水资源管理和水利工程设计有重要的应用价值,而且有助于了解气候变化以何种方式、在何时、何地、已经或尚未对水文循环产生影响,对改进气候模型的模拟与预测有重要的科学价值。 统计方法是检验流量变化趋势显著性的有效工具。直接用气候模型模拟和预测未来径流变化的可靠性取决于模型对当代降水模拟的可信度。多个气候模型集合分析有可能在一定程度上减少模型对降水、径流模拟的不确定性。近年发展起来的多个气候模型集合分析与统计显著性检验技术结合的方法,有可能模拟并预测出气候强迫导致大尺度径流空间分布的变化。随着气候模型尤其是陆—气耦合的区域气候模型对降水模拟的改进,可以预见径流变化的检测、归因和预测的趋同化模拟已为期不远。将温室气体外强迫导致的水文气候变化作为一个因子引入到水资源评价中,对于水资源管理经济与生态评估,以及未来的发展规划将是一件十分重要的变革。      

Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount Makiling forest, Philippines

A statistical downscaling known for producing station-scale climate information from GCM output was preferred to evaluate the impacts of climate change within the Mount Makiling forest watershed, Philippines. The lumped hydrologic BROOK90 model was utilized for the water balance assessment of climate change impacts based on two scenarios (A1B and A2) from CGCM3 experiment. The annual precipitation change was estimated to be 0.1–9.3% increase for A1B scenario, and ?3.3 to 3.3% decrease/increase for the A2 scenario. Difference in the mean temperature between the present and the 2080s were predicted to be 0.6–2.2°C and 0.6–3.0°C under A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively. The water balance showed that 42% of precipitation is converted into evaporation, 48% into streamflow, and 10% into deep seepage loss. The impacts of climate change on water balance reflected dramatic fluctuations in hydrologic events leading to high evaporation losses, and decrease in streamflow, while groundwater flow appeared unaffected. A study on the changes in monthly water balance provided insights into the hydrologic changes within the forest watershed system which can be used in mitigating the effects of climate change.     

气候变化影响下水资源脆弱性评估方法及其应用

气候变化和人类活动影响下的水资源脆弱性评价,是将气候变化影响纳入水资源规划管理、提出缓解气候变化不利影响的适应性对策的重要科学依据。针对与气候变化影响的水资源系统的敏感性和抗压性相联系的脆弱性与适应性问题,提出变化环境下水资源脆弱性评估理论体系和一般性公式。进一步,以水资源供需安全为出发点,采用温度、降雨双参数弹性系数和有水资源基础,直观、简单的水资源关键性指标体系方法,提出气候变化和人类活动背景下水资源脆弱性评估模型。将模型应用于缺水最严重的海河流域,评价了现状和未来情境下流域水资源的脆弱性情况。结果表明:整体上海河流域水资源脆弱性偏高,且平原区较山区更脆弱;气候因素对流域水资源的脆弱性影响明显,未来如不采取措施,海河流域的水资源脆弱性将进一步加重。     

中国寒区水文学研究的新阶段 ——记我国杰出寒区水文学家叶柏生研究员的创新与贡献

我国杰出的寒区水文学家叶柏生研究员不幸因公殉职. 选取了叶柏生研究员若干代表性研究成果, 包括与他人的合作研究成果, 重点从冰川水文、 冻土水文和区域水文变化三方面总结了其对寒区水文学发展所做的创新与贡献. 文章列出了每项研究成果的核心内容, 并给予了简要评述. 所选成果中, 冰川水文方面研究涉及冰川对河川径流的调节作用、 冰川径流对气候变化的响应机理等; 冻土水文研究着重介绍了多年冻土变化对流域径流过程及其变化影响方面的系统性成果; 区域水文变化研究方面, 选取了降水观测误差修正、 气候变化对区域径流的影响等方面的创新成果. 这些研究成果极大地提高了我国在世界寒区水文学研究的地位, 对认识寒区水文过程及气候变化对水资源的影响具有重要科学意义.     

台湾多站流量生成模式的研究

在台湾不同时间下之流量均呈现强烈的气候特性,透过具有气候意义的流量模式,可使得模拟模式的结果更接近实际情况.利用台湾的气候特性,将流量区分于不同气候之贡献,初步完成具台湾气候特性的单站流量生成模式.再使用统计方法考虑于同一流域中不同时段与不同河川间之流量,最后形成合适的多站流量模式.经由多站流量生成模式所得之流量,不似单站生成模式缺乏流域整体的考虑,同时也保持河川间的相关性,与流量间时序之关系.将此模式应用在台湾淡水河流域的支流上,已获致颇佳的结果.此具气象性质之多站流量生成模式未来适合推广于台湾其它流域之水资源规划.     

新疆阿尔泰山区克兰河上游水文过程对气候变暖的响应

额尔齐斯河支流克兰河上游发源于西风带水汽影响的阿尔泰山南坡,主要由融雪径流补给,年内积雪融水可占年径流量的45%.年最大月径流一般出现在6月份,融雪季节4~6月径流量占65%.流域自20世纪60年代开始明显升温,年平均温度从50年代的1.4℃上升到90年代的5.2℃;年降水总量也呈增加趋势,尤其是冬季和初春增加最多.随着气候变暖,河流年内水文过程发生了很大的变化,主要表现在最大月径流由6月提前到5月,月径流总量增加约15%,4~6月融雪径流量也由占年流量的60%增加到近70%.在多年变化趋势上,气温上升主要发生在冬季,降水也以冬季增加明显,而夏季降水呈下降趋势;水文过程主要表现在5月径流呈增加趋势,而6月径流为下降趋势;夏季径流减少而春季径流增加明显.冬春季积雪增加和气温上升,导致融雪洪水增多且洪峰流量增大,使洪水灾害破坏性加大.近些年来气候变暖引起的年内水文过程变化,已经对河流下游的城市供水和农牧业生产产生了影响.     

Sensitivities of the equilibrium line altitude to temperature and precipitation changes along the Andes

Equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) of alpine glaciers are sensitive indicators of climate change and have been commonly used to reconstruct paleoclimates at different temporal and spatial scales. However, accurate interpretations of ELA fluctuations rely on a quantitative understanding of the sensitivity of ELAs to changes in climate. We applied a full surface energy- and mass-balance model to quantify ELA sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes across the range of climate conditions found in the Andes. Model results show that ELA response has a strong spatial variability across the glaciated regions of South America. This spatial variability correlates with the distribution of the present-day mean climate conditions observed along the Andes. We find that ELAs respond linearly to changes in temperature, with the magnitude of the response being prescribed by the local lapse rates. ELA sensitivities to precipitation changes are nearly linear and are inversely correlated with the emissivity of the atmosphere. Temperature sensitivities are greatest in the inner tropics; precipitation becomes more important in the subtropics and northernmost mid-latitudes. These results can be considered an important step towards developing a framework for understanding past episodes of glacial fluctuations and ultimately for predicting glacier response to future climate changes.     

Streamflow changes and its influencing factors in the mainstream of the Songhua River basin,Northeast China over the past 50 years

The Songhua River plays a key role in the national development of China, owing to its unique natural condition and resources. Recent changes in the streamflow in the Songhua River are important with regard to local sustainable development and management under the background of global warming and aggravating soil erosion. In order to detect changes in the streamflow, two streamflow series from 1955 to 2004 (observed at the Harbin and Jiamusi stations) in the mainstream of Songhua River basin were obtained, and methods of statistical analysis, wavelet transform, and double mass analysis were employed to analyze the data. Reasons for the changes to the streamflow are discussed with respect to natural and man-made drivers. The results show the following: (1) From 1955 to 2004, the streamflow series present obvious declining trends. (2) The streamflow series followed the pattern of a wet–dry–wet–dry cycle pattern over the past 50 years. In the mainstream of Songhua River, wet years mainly occurred during the periods of 1955–1966 and 1984–1993, while dry years mainly occurred in the 1970s and after 2000. (3) Within the 50-year scale, the streamflow series appeared in the main periods of circa 33-, 13- and 4-year, in which the 33-year periodicity is the strongest. (4) Precipitation and temperature directly influenced the streamflow in the mainstream of the basin. The discharge was positively correlated with the precipitation and negatively correlated with the temperature. In addition, human activity was another important driving factor for streamflow change. (5) In the mainstream of Songhua River basin, the influences on streamflow can be divided into three periods: 1955–1976, 1977–1997, and 1998–2004. In the first period climate change played a dominant role, and during the latter two periods human influences were enhanced significantly.     

Impact of water demand on hydrological regime under climate and LULC change scenarios

The present study focuses on an assessment of the impact of future water demand on the hydrological regime under land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change scenarios. The impact has been quantified in terms of streamflow and groundwater recharge in the Gandherswari River basin, West Bengal, India. dynamic conversion of land use and its effects (Dyna-CLUE) and statistical downscaling model (SDSM) are used for quantifying the future LULC and climate change scenarios, respectively. Physical-based semi-distributed model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used for estimating future streamflow and spatiotemporally distributed groundwater recharge. Model calibration and validation have been performed using discharge data (1990–2016). The impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrological variables are evaluated with three scenarios (for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080). Temperature Vegetation Dyrness Index (TVDI) and evapotranspiration (ET) are considered for estimation of water-deficit conditions in the river basin. Exceedance probability and recurrence interval representation are considered for uncertainty analysis. The results show increased discharge in case of monsoon season and decreased discharge in case of the non-monsoon season for the years 2030 and 2050. However, a reverse trend is obtained for the year 2080. The overall increase in groundwater recharge is visible for all the years. This analysis provides valuable information for the irrigation water management framework.     

西南河流源区径流量变化规律及其未来演变趋势

采用统计学方法及集合经验模态分解、小波分析、水文模型等多种方法,在对气象水文、湖泊岩芯、树木年轮、气候模式数据进行深入分析的基础上,研究了西南河流源区径流变化规律与历史丰枯规律及其驱动机制,分析了未来气候变化影响下的径流演变趋势。结果表明：三江源地区的径流近50 a整体表现为上升趋势,雅鲁藏布江流域除尼洋河外的其他区域年径流量整体呈不显著下降趋势,气候变化是导致三江源、雅鲁藏布江和怒江流域径流变化的主要原因,其中降水是引起径流变化最关键的因子;主要河流径流不同时间尺度的丰枯演变规律为,雅鲁藏布江中游全新世洪水事件呈现出早晚全新世频繁、中全新世相对较少的特征,近500 a怒江流域重建径流序列存在10个丰水期和10个枯水期,丰枯序列变化主要受季风环流和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)活动的影响;在未来15～60 a,全球持续增温将使西南河流源区平均年径流深相比近30 a增加6%～14%,而极端径流呈现出“干更干、湿更湿”的变化特征,同时生态因子对径流变化的影响不可忽视。     

Contribution of regional climate drivers to future winter sea-level changes in the Baltic Sea estimated by statistical methods and simulations of climate models

A statistical downscaling approach is applied to the output of five different global climate model simulations driven by twenty-first century future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. The contribution of sea-level pressure (SLP) and precipitation changes to regional future winter sea-level changes is estimated for four Baltic sea-level stations by establishing statistical relationships between sea level as predictand and large-scale climate fields as predictors. Using SLP as predictor for the central and eastern Baltic Sea level stations, three climate models lead to statistically significant twenty-first century future trends in the range of the order of 1–2 mm/year. Using precipitation as predictor for the stations in the southern Baltic coast all five models lead to statistically significant trends with a range of the order of 0.4 mm/year. These numbers are smaller, but of the order of magnitude as the predicted global sea-level rise.     

Modeling and assessing land-use and hydrological processes to future land-use and climate change scenarios in watershed land-use planning

Effective information regarding environmental responses to future land-use and climate change scenarios provides useful support for decision making in land use planning, management and policies. This study developed an approach for modeling and examining the impacts of future land-use and climate change scenarios on streamflow, surface runoff and groundwater discharge using an empirical land-use change model, a watershed hydrological model based on various land use policies and climate change scenarios in an urbanizing watershed in Taiwan. The results of the study indicated that various demand and conversion policies had different levels of impact on hydrological components in all land-use scenarios in the study watershed. Climate changes were projected to have a greater impact in increasing surface runoff and reducing groundwater discharge than are land use changes. Additionally, the spatial distributions of land-use changes also influenced hydrological processes in both downstream and upstream areas, particularly in the downstream watershed. The impacts on hydrological components when considering both land use and climate changes exceeded those when only considering land use changes or climate changes, particularly on surface runoff and groundwater discharge. However, the proposed approach provided a useful source of information for assessing the responses of land use and hydrological processes to future land use and climate changes.     

Spectrum of climate change and streamflow alteration at a watershed scale

Worldwide, evidences of water cycle alteration and fresh water resources depletion are frequently reported with various magnitudes. This alteration in the hydrologic cycle is often regarded as a signal of the actual climate change. However, the debate on climate change seems to have preferentially focused on global-scale patterns such that the rich knowledge gathered in the domain is virtually less integrated to decision making at the watershed level. Indeed, the watershed apprehension of climate change is probably an imperative for sustainable water resources planning. The scope of the present study aligns with that imperative as it aims at conciliating patterns of climate change with observations of hydrologic alterations at the watershed level. Specifically, the paper describes the interplay between land-cover changes and the terrestrial water cycle disturbances under climate change at the global level. Thereafter, it reports a watershed-level analysis of streamflow, land-cover, PET and precipitation alteration. Specially, the case study focused on the Brazos River basin, located in the USA and shared by the states of Texas and New Mexico. From both regional and watershed prospects, signals of hydrologic alteration during the time period 1955–2014 are highlighted and then implications of climate change are discussed. The results show an overall longitudinal gradient of precipitation changes and a latitudinal gradient of PET changes across the Brazos watershed. However, these gradients of changes seem to be driven by regional climate components which extend beyond the physical boundary of the Brazos watershed. Mann–Kendall’s analysis of discharge time series (annual average, minimum and maximum) at 10 different stations exhibits meaningful contrasts from upstream to downstream. An assessment of land-cover changes shows critical patterns of landscape change across the watershed. The analyses depicted signals of urbanization sprawl and land-cover degradation. Specially, the significant statistical relationships observed between the time series of maximum green vegetation fraction (MGVF) and streamflow also indicate that the origin of the observed hydrologic alteration is anthropogenic. Ultimately, the results are discussed within the scope of climate change.     

变化环境下城市洪水演变驱动机理——以北京市温榆河为例

气候变化和人类活动被认为是城市洪水演变的主要驱动因素,不同区域气候变化和城市化对洪水演变的影响不尽相同,科学识别城市洪水演变的关键驱动要素、量化气候变化与城市化对城市流域洪水演变的影响是城市洪水管理的重要依据。本文以高度城市化的北京市温榆河流域为例,以季节降雨量、气温、流域前期湿度、不透水面积比及流域内地下水埋深作为潜在驱动要素,对温榆河夏季不同概率的洪水建立GAMLSS模型,分析探讨城市流域洪水演变的主要驱动机制。研究结果表明:温榆河流域夏季不同概率的洪水在研究期均呈现出非一致性特性;城市不透水面积的扩张和降水是温榆河流域夏季洪水变化的主要驱动要素,不同等级洪水的变化具有不同的驱动机制,高于概率70%的小洪水的变化主要受到流域下垫面变化的影响,而小于概率45%的低频洪水的变化主要受降水的影响。     

气候变化对黄河流域生态径流影响预估

人类活动和气候变化严重改变了黄河水文情势和生态径流,分析未来气候变化对河流生态的影响对流域水资源管理和长期规划意义重大。本文对第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的13个全球气候模式数据进行偏差订正,驱动水文模型进行径流模拟,应用流量历时曲线方法分析SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5情景下2026年至21世纪末年、季节尺度的花园口生态径流变化。结果表明:订正能明显降低降水、气温模拟偏差;人类活动严重影响了1986-2010年花园口生态径流;2026-2100年年均气温和年降水量增加趋势显著,低排放情景增速慢,高排放情景增速快;气候变化可在一定程度上缓解水库调控、水土保持等人类活动对生态径流的负面影响,SSP5-8.5情景缓解程度最高,冬季缓解程度最高,夏、秋季最低。     

Impacts of climate change on stream flow and water quality in a drinking water source area,Northern China

Understanding the impacts of climate change on water quality and stream flow is important for management of water resources and environment. Miyun Reservoir is the only surface drinking water source in Beijing, which is currently experiencing a serious water shortage. Therefore, it is vital to identify the impacts of climate change on water quality and quantity of the Miyun Reservoir watershed. Based on long-time-series data of meteorological observation, future climate change scenarios for this study area were predicted using global climate models (GCMs), the statistical downscaling model (SDSM), and the National Climate Centre/Gothenburg University—Weather Generator (NWG). Future trends of nonpoint source pollution load were estimated and the response of nonpoint pollution to climate change was determined using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Results showed that the simulation results of SWAT model were reasonable in this study area. The comparative analysis of precipitation and air temperature simulated using the SDSM and NWG separately showed that both tools have similar results, but the former had a larger variability of simulation results than the latter. With respect to simulation variance, the NWG has certain advantages in the numerical simulation of precipitation, but the SDSM is superior in simulating precipitation and air temperature changes. The changes in future precipitation and air temperature under different climate scenarios occur basically in the same way, that is, an overall increase is estimated. Particularly, future precipitation will increase significantly as predicted. Due to the influence of climate change, discharge, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads from the study area will increase over the next 30 years by model evaluation. Compared to average value of 1961?~?1990, discharge will experience the highest increase (15%), whereas TN and TP loads will experience a smaller increase with a greater range of annual fluctuations of 2021 ~ 2050.