Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by climate change, associated with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions. Since the region is diverse and extreme climate conditions already common, the impacts will be disproportional. We have analyzed long-term meteorological datasets along with regional climate model projections for the 21st century, based on the intermediate IPCC SRES scenario A1B. This suggests a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming of about 3.5–7°C between the 1961–1990 reference period and the period 2070–2099. Daytime maximum temperatures appear to increase most rapidly in the northern part of the region, i.e. the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey. Hot summer conditions that rarely occurred in the reference period may become the norm by the middle and the end of the 21st century. Projected precipitation changes are quite variable. Annual precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern Europe – Turkey region and the Levant, whereas in the Arabian Gulf area it may increase. In the former region rainfall is actually expected to increase in winter, while decreasing in spring and summer, with a substantial increase of the number of days without rainfall. Anticipated regional impacts of climate change include heat stress, associated with poor air quality in the urban environment, and increasing scarcity of fresh water in the Levant.     

Signals of climatic change in the Central-Western Mediterranean basin

Summary Climatic scenario models forecast an increase of the air temperature in the next century of 1.5–3.5 °C, because of the anthropogenic enhancement of the concentration greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The analysis of the trend of long-lasting data series of climatic parameters seems to support such a prediction: indeed due to the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, a climate modification could be already ongoing. Several papers have been published dealing with the global scale climate, this paper, however, deals with an investigation on the regional scale, referring specifically to the Central-Western Mediterranean basin. We are concerned with the parameters which are more affected by climate changes, such as pressure, temperature and precipitation. The analysis carried out indicates that in the Central-Western Mediterranean basin the climate is evolving in a consistent way; we have found: i) an increase of air pressure at the surface and at the upper levels; ii) a reduction in cloudiness and precipitation amount; iii) an increase by about 1 °C in surface air temperature during the period 1860–1995 and in more recent years a rise of the freezing level and of the tropopause; iv) a reduction of strong cyclogenetic events and an increase of heat waves. These results, although compatible with the scenarios predicted, do not allow a final conclusion to be drawn concerning a man-made influence on climate change in the basin.With 13 Figures     

Climatic change impacts on the ecohydrology of Mediterranean watersheds

Impact of climate change on ecohydrologic processes of Mediterranean watersheds are significant and require quick action toward improving adaptation and management of fragile system. Increase in water shortages and land use can alter the water balance and ecological health of the watershed systems. Intensification of land use, increase in water abstraction, and decline in water quality can be enhanced by changes in temperature and precipitation regimes. Ecohydrologic changes from climatic impacts alter runoff, evapotranspiration, surface storage, and soil moisture that directly affect biota and habitat of the region. This paper reviews expected impacts of climatic change on the ecohydrology of watershed systems of the Mediterranean and identifies adaptation strategies to increase the resilience of the systems. A spatial assessment of changes in temperature and precipitation estimates from a multimodel ensemble is used to identify potential climatic impacts on watershed systems. This is augmented with literature on ecohydrologic impacts in watershed systems of the region. Hydrologic implications are discussed through the lens of geographic distribution and upstream-downstream dynamics in watershed systems. Specific implications of climatic change studied are on runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, lake levels, water quality, habitat, species distribution, biodiversity, and economic status of countries. It is observed that climatic change can have significant impacts on the ecohydrologic processes in the Mediterranean watersheds. Vulnerability varied depending on the geography, landscape characteristics, and human activities in a watershed. Increasing the resilience of watershed systems can be an effective strategy to adapt to climatic impacts. Several strategies are identified that can increase the resilience of the watersheds to climatic and land use change stress. Understanding the ecohydrologic processes is vital to development of effective long-term strategies to improve the resilience of watersheds. There is need for further research into ecohydrologic dynamics at multiple scales, improved resolution of climatic predictions to local scales, and implications of disruptions on regional economies.     

Modelling the sensitivity of Mediterranean Outflow to anthropogenically forced climate change

 The possible future impact of anthropogenic forcing upon the circulation of the Mediterranean, and the exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar is investigated using a Cox-type model of the Mediterranean at 0.25° × 0.25° resolution, forced by “control” and “greenhouse” scenarios provided by the HadCM2 coupled climate model. The current structure of the Mediterranean forced by the “control” climate is compared with observations: certain aspects of the present circulation are reproduced, but others are absent or incorrectly represented. Deficiencies are most probably due to weaknesses in the forcing climatology generated by the climate model, so some caution must be exercised in interpreting the enhanced greenhouse simulation. Comparison of the control and greenhouse scenarios suggests that deep-water production in the Mediterranean may be reduced or cease in the relatively near future. The results also suggest that the Mediterranean outflow, may become warmer and more saline, but less dense, and hence shallower. The volume of the exchange at the Strait of Gibraltar seems to be relatively insensitive to future climate change, however. Our results indicate that a parameterisation of Gibraltar exchange and Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) production may be able to provide adequate representation of the changes we observe for the purposes of the current generation of climate models. Received: 10 August 1998 / Accepted: 11 October 1999     

Climate change impacts on wildfires in a Mediterranean environment

We analyse the observed climate-driven changes in summer wildfires and their future evolution in a typical Mediterranean environment (NE Spain). By analysing observed climate and fire data from 1970 to 2007, we estimate the response of fire number (NF) and burned area (BA) to climate trends, disentangling the drivers responsible for long-term and interannual changes by means of a parsimonious Multi Linear Regression model (MLR). In the last forty years, the observed NF trend was negative. Here we show that, if improvements in fire management were not taken into account, the warming climate forcing alone would have led to a positive trend in NF. On the other hand, for BA, higher fuel flammability is counterbalanced by the indirect climate effects on fuel structure (i.e. less favourable conditions for fine-fuel availability and fuel connectivity), leading to a slightly negative trend. Driving the fire model with A1B climate change scenarios based on a set of Regional Climate Models from the ENSEMBLES project indicates that increasing temperatures promote a positive trend in NF if no further improvements in fire management are introduced.     

Relationship between climate change and vegetation distribution in the Mediterranean mountains: Manzanares Head valley, Sierra De Guadarrama (Central Spain)

This work analyzes the consequences of climate change in the distribution of the Mediterranean high-mountain vegetation. A study area was chosen at the Sierra de Guadarrama, in the center of the Iberian Peninsula (1,795 to 2,374 m asl). Climate change was analyzed from the record of 18 variables regarding temperature, rainfall and snowfall over the period 1951–2000. The permanence of snow cover (1996–2004), landforms stability and vegetation distribution in 5 years (1956, 1972, 1984, 1991 and 1998) were all analyzed. The Nival Correlation Level of the different vegetation classes was determined through their spatial and/or temporal relationship with several climatologic variables, snow cover duration and landforms. In order to quantify trends and major change processes, areas and percent changes were calculated, as well as Mean Annual Transformation Indices and Transition Matrices. The findings reveal that in the first part of the study period (up to the first half of the 1970s) the temperature rise in the mid-winter months caused the reduction of some classes of nival vegetation, while others expanded, favored by high rainfall, decrease in both maximum temperatures and summer aridity, and longer snow cover duration. The second part of the study period was characterized by the consolidation of the increase in all thermal variables, along with an important reduction in rainfall volume and snow cover duration. As a result, herbaceous plants, which are highly correlated with a long snow permanence and abundance of melting water, have been replaced by leguminous shrubs which grow away from the influence of snow, and which are steadily becoming denser.     

The forgotten casualties: women, children, and environmental change.

The author posits that women and children bear a disproportionate burden of environmental degradation and are in the worst position to mitigate the consequences of deteriorating environmental conditions. This article discusses the concept of environmental equity or fairness and its sociospatial impacts and the different adjustments made by women and children. Environmental equity is both an outcome and a process. Process equity includes the underlying causes of uneven distributions of resources. The 1992 Rio Declaration on Environment and Development defines 27 specific principles that broadly follow three forms of equity: social equity, generational equity, and procedural equity. Social equity is defined as the role of social, economic, and political forces in resource consumption and environmental degradation. Environmental risk is related to locational criteria such as cheap land and transportation access and by the social geography of places. Hazardous waste dumping is used to illustrate inequitable waste disposal in developing countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, Lebanon, Syria, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and South Korea. Generational equity is defined as fairness over time. The issue of permanent radioactive waste disposal is a current issue that has implications for future generations. Three strategies are important in assuring generational equity: the maintenance of natural and cultural diversity; a reduction in environmental degradation; and the provision of equal access to resources. Preservation of parkland is a positive strategy and lack of access to health services and reproductive health care is a negative strategy. Procedural equity is defined as the extent to which regulations are applied fairly. The example is given of higher fines for dumping waste in "nice White communities" compared to minority ones. Environmental law regulating hazardous waste exports has been minimally effective. Women and children are affected by particulate pollution and environmental toxins (lead and pesticides) in the air and water of urban areas and by a composite of poverty, development, and urbanization.     

Mediterranean migration futures: Patterns,drivers and scenarios

This study explores possible futures of Mediterranean migration based on an evaluation of past, current and future drivers of migration in the region. Since 1950, structural shifts in the political economy of the region have fundamentally changed the Mediterranean migration map. Particularly the rise of Gulf economies and south European growth and EU expansion has transformed the northern Mediterranean and the Gulf into new immigration poles. The main drivers of these changes are economic and political. Contrary to conventional beliefs, the role of environmental and also demographic factors seems comparatively limited, probabilistic and indirect. Future climate change and environmental stress may affect internal movement but are unlikely to result in massive international migration. Under most scenarios, Turkey and other North African countries may well evolve into immigration countries coinciding with increasing immigration from sub-Saharan Africa to the entire Mediterranean.     

Rainfall distribution patterns and their change over time in a Mediterranean area

Summary In dry farming areas, where rainfall is the only source of water for crops, changes in both quantity and distribution of rainfall during the year could affect the economy of an area. Inter-annual variability makes it difficult to assess rainfall variability, especially in areas with Mediterranean climate. In this paper, interannual rainfall variations in the Alt Penedès region were evaluated using 24-h rainfall records at Vilafranca del Penedès (1889–1999) and at Sant Sadurni d’Anoia (1960–1999). The distribution patterns during the year and their changes over the time were also analysed. Rainfall data were normalised and the values corresponding to the percentiles 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 and 0.9 were calculated to analyse whether they were very dry, dry, normal, wet and very wet periods. Annual rainfall and the rainfall recorded during the main rainfall periods during the year and its trend were analysed. Annual rainfall did not show a clear tendency, although during the last decade reduced interannual variability occurred. The percentage of dry years did not increase but the percentage of wet and very wet years decreased. During the last decade, an increase of dry spring seasons andwet autumn seasons was observed, even in normal or wetyears. These changes could affect the timing of whencrops receive water and could therefore affect their yields. Received May 31, 2000/Revised February 26, 2001     

How the aggressiveness of rainfalls in the Mediterranean lands is enhanced by climate change

Rainfall and overland flow are fundamental processes for Earth’s ecosystems but can also be land disturbing forces, particularly when triggered by extreme hydro-meteorological events. Examples of these extremes are rainstorms and related phenomena due to rainfall aggressiveness. They produce high-impact land processes such as soil erosion and nutrient losses. Economic and social consequences of these processes can be quite severe. However, hydrological extremes and their environmental implications are still poorly understood, particularly if analyzed in the context of climate change. Here, we analyze a 300 year long times series of historical rainfall patterns across the Mediterranean in the last three centuries and we investigate changes in the erosive forcing as related to climate changes. Our results show that the erosive forcing increased towards the end of the Little Ice Age (~1850) over western and central Mediterranean and that has been increasing in the recent warming period at low Mediterranean latitudes, due to a higher frequency of intensive storms. Such increased concentrated precipitation may lead to an intensification of land degradation processes triggered by soil erosion and transport across a range of scales from hillslopes to small catchments.     

Rainfall uncertainty in the Mediterranean: time series, uncertainty, and extreme events

Temporal precipitation irregularities, extreme rainfall, or droughts represent great climate concerns and have major impacts on the natural environment. The present study focuses on 41 stations spread over the entire Mediterranean region. The datasets contain daily rainfall totals, with a median length of 56?years within the period of 1931?C2006. The study aims at detecting significant trends in the time series and the uncertainties of four parameters: annual rainfall total, number of rain spells, the rain-spells yields, and rainy season length. In addition, it aims to detect significant temporal changes in the occurrence of extreme events of these parameters. Several methodologies have been used in this study, and the main conclusion is that despite the general assumption of tremendous changes in the rainfall regime, no significant temporal trends or uncertainty trends were found in most of the stations, neither in their annual totals, their number of rain spells, and their rain-spell yields, nor in their rainy season length. However, in the few cases that a significant trend was detected, former years tended to be wetter, longer, and with more abundant rain spells, while the opposite is seen in the later years; and uncertainty, tends to increase more than to decrease.     

Beef feedlots in southwestern Kansas: local change, perceptions, and the global change context

Cattle feedlots, some of which have a capacity of tens of thousands of head, have become a major driving force in the local economy and changing landscape of southwestern Kansas. The feedlot industry also is one of the region's most important sources of carbon-equivalent greenhouse gases. Changes to the beef industry are described, and the perceptions and attitudes of feedlot operators regarding climatic change issues and industrial change are analyzed based on a 1998 survey. The results indicate that a majority of feedlot respondents believe ‘global warming’ is mostly an unproven theory, and efforts to mitigate it are unwarranted.     

Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios

We present future fire danger scenarios for the countries bordering the Mediterranean areas of Europe and north Africa building on a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate projections from the EU-funded project ENSEMBLES. Fire danger is estimated using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and a related set of indices. To overcome some of the limitations of ENSEMBLES data for their application on the FWI System—recently highlighted in a previous study by Herrera et al. (Clim Chang 118:827–840, 2013)—we used an optimal proxy variable combination. A robust assessment of future fire danger projections is undertaken by disentangling the climate change signal from the uncertainty derived from the multi-model ensemble, unveiling a positive signal of fire danger potential over large areas of the Mediterranean. The increase in the fire danger signal is accentuated towards the latest part of the transient period, thus pointing to an elevated fire potential in the region with time. The fire-climate links under present and future conditions are further discussed building upon observed climate data and burned area records along a representative climatic gradient within the study region.     

Potential effects of climatic change on the distribution of Tetraclinis articulata, an endemic tree from arid Mediterranean ecosystems

South-eastern Spain is a key area for assessing the effects of climate change on biodiversity since it presents an ecotone between the Mediterranean biome and the subtropical shrublands of arid lands. The forests of Tetraclinis articulata constitutes an especially relevant case. A species distribution model has been developed, regionalised climate change scenarios for South-eastern Spain were generated and expected changes in the suitability area of this species were estimated under B2 and A2 SRES scenarios for the time slice 2020–2050. Moreover, land use in the present and future potential habitat has been analysed. The high sensitivity of T. articulata is expressed not only as effects of climate change in the near future when compared to the present-day situation but also in the remarkable differences under scenarios B2 and A2. Under scenario B2 the suitable area for T. articulata would expand six-fold whereas under A2 the potential habitat would disappear from its present-day distribution and would move to a small area in the interior mountains. Under scenario B2 the future potential habitat in the coastal location would include enough area of shrublands, the main effective habitat of the species. Moreover, the present and future potential habitat partially overlaps, which facilitates the species migration. On the contrary, in the interior potential habitat the land use is less favourable for the effective habitat, the actual and future potential habitat do not overlap and the low dispersal capabilities of the species prevents natural migration to the interior to be expected.     

Anthropogenic climate change over the Mediterranean region simulated by a global variable resolution model

Two 30-year simulations corresponding to 1960-1989 and 2070-2099 have been performed with a variable resolution atmospheric model. The model has a maximum horizontal resolution of 0.5° over the Mediterranean Sea. Simulations are driven by IPCC-B2 scenario radiative forcing. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed from monthly observations for the present climate simulation, and from a blend of observations and coupled simulations for the scenario. Another pair of forced atmospheric simulations has been run under these forcings with the same uniform low resolution as the coupled model. Comparisons with observations show that the variable resolution model realistically reproduces the main climate characteristics of the Mediterranean region. At a global scale, changes in latitudinal temperature profiles are similar for the forced and coupled models, justifying the time-slice approach. The 2 m temperature and precipitation responses predict a warming and drying of the Mediterranean region. A comparison with the coupled simulation and forced low-resolution simulation shows that this pattern is robust. The decrease in mean precipitation is associated with a significant decrease in soil wetness, and could involve considerable impact on water resources around the Mediterranean basin.