闽南金三角地区经济增长与产业重心的时空演变

闽南金三角地区已成为中国东南沿海重要的经济增长高地。然而,在同城化背景下,该地区的城市空间重组、区域协调等问题凸显,严重制约了区域可持续发展。本文运用重心模型揭示了2000-2012年闽南金三角经济增长以及三次产业重心迁移的时空演变特征与规律,并用Nich指数进一步分析三次产业差异。结果表明:(1)闽南金三角地区极化发展现象突出,2000年以来地区经济增长重心与二、三产业重心高度集聚于厦门市东北部,且东西向极化现象较明显;(2)厦、泉两地经济增长博弈激烈,2008年后第三产业开始回迁,且其对经济增长有一定的牵引效应,地区间第二产业非均衡性发展有所收敛;(3)第一产业重心往西南地区迁移的直线型态势显著,漳州市二、三产业发展均滞后于厦、泉地区。     

青藏高原城镇体系的时空演变

城镇体系的形成和发育对区域城镇化进程及社会经济发展起着至关重要的作用,并对生态环境产生重要影响。青藏高原特殊的地理环境与相对落后的社会经济基础,导致城镇体系不甚健全。目前国内外相关研究薄弱,不利于国家生态安全屏障建设及青藏高原可持续发展。为此,本文以建制镇以上的镇区和城市市区为研究对象,结合统计数据与遥感数据,借助GIS空间分析方法对青藏高原1990-2015年城镇体系的空间结构和规模结构进行时空演变格局分析,并采用重心移动模型揭示了青藏高原城镇人口规模和用地规模重心的迁移规律。结果表明：青藏高原城镇空间分布总体呈现出“东南密集、西北稀疏”、“大分散、小集聚”的格局;城镇分布在时间上具有阶段性增长特征且总体趋于集聚,在空间上不均衡程度呈上升趋势但2005年后明显减缓;虽然建制镇数量大幅增长,但96.88%的城镇规模在5万人以下,大中小城市发育不足;城镇人口规模重心呈现“先向西南,再向东北,又向西南”的移动轨迹;城镇用地规模重心呈现“先向东南,再向西北,再向东北”的迁移趋势。本文研究了青藏高原城镇体系的规模结构及其时空演变特征,为青藏高原新型城镇化及城镇空间格局优化提供基础依据;提出了资料缺乏和统计口径不一致的条件下城镇规模的合理估算方法,对我国城镇化相关研究具有一定的参考价值。     

1980-2015年黄河流域降雨侵蚀力时空变化分析

本文利用1980-2015年黄河流域及周边166个气象站点36 a的降雨资料,采用日降雨侵蚀力计算模型,对克里金插值后的栅格数据,通过利用主成分分析法、isodata聚类和最大似然法实现区域划分,并在此基础上应用重心模型研究了黄河流域降雨侵蚀力的时空变化。研究结果表明：黄河流域内不同区域的年降雨侵蚀力差异较大,最小的区域在200 MJ·mm·hm^-2·h^-1左右变化,最大的区域可达3000 MJ·mm·hm^-2·h^-1,年降雨侵蚀力具有由西北向东南递增的趋势。年降雨侵蚀力大的区域其侵蚀力值在不同年份中波动范围也大。西宁、呼和浩特等所在的一区、二区和三区的年降雨侵蚀力的重心总体上呈现向东北方迁移趋势。太原、西安所在的四区、五区其重心总体上呈现向西南方迁移趋势,其年降雨侵蚀力重心迁移范围小,重心点分布更紧密。各区域年降雨侵蚀力重心的迁移范围在空间和时间尺度上总体呈现由西北向东南方向逐渐缩小趋势。     

夜间灯光遥感数据的GDP空间化处理方法

 随着夜间灯光遥感数据的应用日渐成熟和资源环境研究领域,对空间型社会经济数据的需求增加,利用相关分析和回归分析的方法,首次定量探讨夜间灯光数据与统计型的社会经济数据的空间关系。为提高模型精度,按照我国省级行政边界分区建模,分析全国县级的地区生产总值、第一产业、第二产业、第三产业分别与夜间灯光指数的空间相关关系,最终建立全国的1km GDP密度图。结果表明,全国范围的夜间灯光数据与第一产业的相关性不明显,相关系数0.554,模型拟合效果差,R²为0.306;夜间灯光数据与地区生产总值、第二产业、第三产业均有明显的对数线性关系,尤其是与第二产业和第三产业之和,相关系数为0.824,R²为0.679。利用分区模型估算,生成的GDP密度图能较完整地反映全国社会经济分布详况,以及宏观分布特征。     

Empirical study on effect of industrial structure change on regional economic growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

Based on the data of gross domestic product (GDP), industrial added value and the proportion of industrial employees from 2000 to 2008, this paper studies the effect of industrial structure change on the regional economic growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region in China using the shift-share method. The results show that: 1) In the 21st century, the industrial output of three industries, namely, primary, secondary, and tertiary, and the GDP grew rapidly in the study period. The tertiary industry grew the fastest; it had the largest contribution to the GDP and meanwhile had become the most competitive industry in the metropolitan region. 2) The development of cities within the region was not balanced. Firstly, compared with Tianjin, Beijing, as one of the two core cities, was more rational in the industrial structure. Secondly, the surrounding eight cities, which are Shijiazhuang, Qinhuangdao, Tangshan, Langfang, Baoding, Cangzhou, Zhangjiakou, and Chengde, were all uncompetitive than the two core cities. 3) There was a great industrial gradient in the region (especially between the two core cities and the cities of Tangshan, Baoding, Zhangjiakou, Chengde, Cangzhou, and Langfang). As a result, it is foreseeable that the industry transfer in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region will be one of the trends in regional development, and the industry transfer is inevitably to promote the regional integration.     

基于地理探测器的中国中部城市土地绿色利用效率时空演变及影响因素研究

中部崛起战略后,中国中部六省（湖北省、湖南省、安徽省、山西省、江西省和河南省）经济快速发展,建成区面积不断扩张,不仅威胁粮食安全,更加剧资源环境约束。在此背景下,本文采用2007—2018年中部六省80个地级市面板数据,并运用Malmquist-Luerberger指数、重心模型、空间计量模型和地理探测器模型分析中部六省80个地级市土地绿色利用效率时演变、重心移动轨迹变化及其影响因素情况。结果表明：① 2007—2018年中部六省土地绿色利用效率增长是靠技术进步“单轨驱动”的。② 城市土地绿色利用效率值表现出明显的空间分异特征,且重心总体向东北方向移动。③ 中部六省各地级市之间土地绿色利用效率存在空间依赖性和空间溢出效应。④ 除城市建设用地面积外,城镇化率、产业结构高级化水平、经济发展水平、外商直接投资额均正向影响中部六省80个地级市土地绿色利用效率。其中,各个影响因素对土地绿色利用效率的影响从强到弱依次为产业结构高级化水平、外商直接投资额、建设用地面积、城镇化率、经济发展水平。     

2001-2017年中国不同耕作区重建MODIS LAI时空动态

叶面积指数Leaf Area Index(LAI)作为植被生物量指标之一,耕作区LAI不仅能反映作物的长势动态,且与农业生态、作物产量密切相关.本文通过对2001-2017年中国农田区域的MODIS-LAI长时序数据进行重建,利用Mann-Kendall检验、变异系数、重心迁移模型等方法分析了中国耕作区LAI的时空变化...     

ON THE OPENING-UP AND DEVELOPMENT OF SHANGHAIS PUDONG NEW AREA

In the development of Pudong, a strategic idea and goal ought to be fully realized, that is: with the development of Pudong as a lead, to further open up the cities along the Chang jiang (Yangtze) River, build Shanghai into an international center for economy, finance and trade, thus to spark a new economic take-off in the Changjiang River Delta and the whole Changjiang River Basin.To develop Pudong, the infrastructure construction must be developed first; and the development of primary, secondary and tertiary industries must be well coordinated. At present, the stress should be laid on tertiary sectors like finance, foreign trade, commerce, real estate, far-ocean transport, post and telecommunication, information and travelling service and so on. In the secondary industry, export processing and high and new technological industries should be put first, while the original raw-material industry should be improved in processing depth. As to the primary industry, a metropolitan suburban agriculture should     

基于夜间灯光和土地利用数据的云南沿边地区GDP空间差异性分析

云南沿边地区包括8个地州,共56个县,其中有25个县市与老挝、缅甸和越南直接毗邻,具有重要的地缘位置。本研究利用土地利用数据和夜间灯光数据在实现云南沿边地区GDP空间化的基础上,对GDP的空间分布格局进行深入探讨,这对缩小区域经济差异及促进地区共同发展具有一定的指导意义。采用土地利用数据对国内生产总值（Gross Domestic Product, GDP）数据的第一产业进行空间化拟合,采用DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据对GDP的第二、三产业进行拟合,将第一产业和第二、三产业空间化拟合的结果相加,实现云南沿边地区1992-2013年的GDP的空间化拟合。在此基础上对云南沿边地区GDP空间分布差异进行分析。结果表明：① 土地利用数据对第一产业建模的效果较好,拟合的多期数据的相对误差均低于1.12%,采用夜间灯光数据,基于“分类回归”方法对第二、三产业拟合相对误差最大仅为6.404%,最终二者之和拟合的GDP拟合精度都较好,相对误差最大仅为4.241%;② 22期GDP数据在空间分布上均呈现正的相关性,且均为显著集聚;③ GDP空间分布局部集聚的高值-高值区域集中在开远、蒙自等县域,低值-低值地区集中在绿春、西蒙等地区;④ 云南沿边地区县域之间的经济差异在1992-1996年逐渐增强,1996年之后,经济差异波动缩小,空间关联效应呈现波动式的增强和减弱;⑤ 云南沿边地区的三维插值结果均呈现出西北至东南一线的“洼地-丘陵-平地-高峰”地势变化格局,沿边地区的东南角地区即红河州的建水、个旧和开远等县市的GDP最高,“丘陵”地势主要集中在腾冲、保山市以及最南部的景洪地区,“洼地-平地”地势主要分布在沿边地区西北角的贡山和福贡等县域、西南角的西蒙和孟连等县及中部区域的绿春和江城县等地区。     

On the opening-up and development of shanghai’s pudong new area

In the development of Pudong, a strategic idea and goal ought to be fully realized, that is: with the development of Pudong as a lead, to further open up the cities along the Changjiang (Yangtze) River, build Shanghai into an international center for economy, finance and trade, thus to spark a new economic take- off in the Changjiang River Delta and the whole Changjiang River Basin. To develop Pudong, the infrastructure construction must be developed first; and the development of primary, secondary and teriary industries must be well coordinated. At present, the stress should be laid on tertiary sectors like finance, foreign trade, comerce, real estate, far-ocean transport, post and telecommunication, information and travelling service and so on. In the secondary industry, export processing and high and new technological industries should be put first, while the original raw-material industry should be improved in processing depth. As to the primary industry, a metropolitan suburban agriculture should be established. In spatial distribution, the present extension has been eastward along the Huangpu River axis. By the end of this century, five districts: Waigaoqiao-Gaoqiao, Qingningsi-Jinqiao, Lujiazui-Huamu, Zhoujiadu-Liuli and Beicai-Zhangjiang, will be developed. Meanwhile, it must be well coordinated between developing Pudong and reforming Puxi.     

区域人口迁移时空溢出效应与动力机制分析

区域人口迁移流的规模不仅取决于迁出地与目的地的“双边”要素,也与前期迁移流和周边迁移流息息相关。传统重力模型揭示了区域人口迁移过程的“推-拉”机制,但受制于对时空维度的忽视,无法有效表达迁移流之间的时空依赖关系,因而难以度量区域要素变化对迁移流产生的时空溢出效应。本文引入多种形式的时空依赖结构,构建迁移流时空重力模型,并采用贝叶斯马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛（MCMC）方法进行估计。在此基础上,结合时空效应框架量化区域要素对迁移流的影响,定量分析人口迁移过程的时空溢出效应与动力机制。本文以1985-2015年中国省际人口迁移为例,通过与非空间的动态重力模型估计结果比较,初步表明时间依赖、空间依赖以及时空扩散依赖在区域人口迁移过程中不容忽视;时空维度上,区域要素变化在初期对迁移网络的溢出效应超过对该区域迁移流的直接影响;逐渐衰减的时空溢出效应维持了区域人口迁移规模发展的相对稳定,与动态重力模型估计结果形成了鲜明对比。区域人口规模、人均GDP水平及其时空溢出效应共同驱动中国省际人口迁移系统的发展。耦合时空维度依赖关系的时空重力模型能更好地理解区域人口迁移过程的演化特征,为促进区域人口均衡发展提供科学的决策依据。     

The difference of economic function and the trends of industrial development in central cities along the Xijiang River

TheXijiangRiveristhemainwaterwayacrosseastandwestinSouthernChina.ItsmaincoursebacksontothewestofGuangdongandthesouthwestofChina,withitsexitthroughHongKong,MacaoandSoutheasternAsia.Ithasawidehinterlandandconvenientwatertransportation.AlongtheXijiangRiver,thecentralcitiesarethecities,whichspreadalongtheXijiangRiver'smaincourse,theZhujiangRiver'sdeltaandoutlet,andBosehasbeenselectedasarepresentativecityintheupperreachesoftheXijiangRiver.Theytotal12cities,includingGuangzhou,Shenzhen,Zhuh…     

近55年来澜沧江流域降水时空变化特征分析

本文利用澜沧江流域及周边共30个气象站点1960-2014年的逐月降水数据,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Morlet小波分析、Co-Kriging插值以及重心模型等方法,分析了澜沧江流域降水的时空变化特征。结果表明：① 分析时段内全区、北部和中部年降水量呈现增加趋势,南部年降水量出现减少趋势。春季全区、北部、中部和南部降水均呈增加趋势;夏季均呈减少趋势;秋季全区和南部降水呈现减少趋势,北部和中部呈增加趋势;冬季全区、中部和南部呈下降趋势,只有北部呈增加趋势。② 近55年来,全区包括北部、中部和南部年降水都存在近29年、近22年和5-10年左右的周期,这3个周期在分析时段内表现很稳定,具有全域性。全区、北部和南部还存在明显的13年左右的周期,中部1975年前和1995年后也存在13年左右的周期,北部1975年前存在明显的7-10年的周期,1995年后,7-10年的周期表现也比较稳定。降水量变化的第一主周期是近29年,第二主周期是近22年。③ 澜沧江流域多年平均降水量由南部向北部减少,流域南部降水最多,多年平均降水量在1200 mm以上,中部多年平均降水量处于800~1100 mm,北部多年平均降水量多小于800 mm,大部分在400~800 mm;澜沧江流域年降水重心和月降水重心都集中在中部,其中11月的降水重心迁移距离最大,向东南方向迁移了131.82 km。从季节来看,春季、夏季和秋季降水重心向东南迁移,冬季的向西北方向迁移,雨季降水重心相对比较集中,旱季降水重心相对 比较分散。     

论中国西部的经济开发

本文多方面系统地分析了中国西部地区的经济态势,从生产总值、产业结构(第一产业、工业、矿产、能源,第三产业等)以及生态环境等,论述西部的经济开发。     

Livelihood strategy change and land use change —Case of Danzam Village in upper Dadu River watershed, Tibetan Plateau of China

Land use change in rural China since the 1980s, induced by institution reforms, urbanization, industrialization and population increase, has received more attention. However, case studies on how institution reforms affect farmers’ livelihood strategies and drive land use change are scarce. By means of cropland plots investigations and interviews with farmers, this study examines livelihood strategy change and land use change in Danzam Village of Jinchuan County in the upper Dadu River watershed, eastern Tibetan Plateau, China. The results show that, during the collective system period, as surplus labor forces could not be transferred to the secondary and tertiary industries, they had to choose agricultural involution as their livelihood strategy, then the farmers had to produce more grains by land reclamation, increasing multiple cropping index, improving input of labor, fertilizer, pesticide and adopting advanced agricultural techniques. During the household responsibility system period, as labors being transferred to the secondary and tertiary industries, farmers chose livelihood diversification strategy. Therefore, labor input to grain planting was greatly reduced, which drove the transformation of grain to horticulture, vegetable or wasteland and decrease of multiple cropping index. This study provides a new insight into understanding linkages among institution reforms, livelihood strategy of smallholders and land use change in rural China. Foundation item: Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40601006, 40471009), National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2005CB422006)     

Spatial pattern and influencing factor of county-level industrial development in Liaoning Province of China

County-level industrial development and structure upgrade is one of the most important issues of revitalizing old industrial base of China. After the cluster analysis on GDP per capita and GDP per area of each county in Liaoning Province, this paper finds the similarity of population size, land use intensity, and economic development of each county. Location quotient reflects the specialization intensity of industries in each county, and it also reflects the spatial differences of county-level industrial development. Economic development level is higher in the southeast than in the northwest of Liaoning, and the industry driving effect on county-level economy is apparent. The main influencing factors include location, industrial foundation and economic system reform, capital input level, knowledge and technology dissemination, conditions of domestic and overseas markets, population and labor force transfer. Industrialization is an important approach to urbanization for the counties in Liaoning Province. The proportion of agriculture is much higher in the northwest than in the southeast of Liaoning, so it will be take longer time for counties in the northwest of Liaoning to make industrialization, urbanization and modernization.     

江苏省商业网点的空间分布特征及其区域差异因素

以江苏省商业网点POI（兴趣点）数据为基础,结合经济社会统计数据,分别对批发零售业、住宿业和餐饮业三种业态类型,运用标准差椭圆、核密度、最近邻指数以及多元线性回归等分析方法,探讨不同发展水平、发展阶段城市商业网点的空间分布模式和业态结构特征,并揭示其区域差异的影响因素。研究发现：江苏省商业网点总体上具有西北走向分布态势,呈现相对集中分布格局,表现出在长江以南地区集聚和在地级城市中心城区密集布局的特征;不同业态类型网点空间分布具有差异,批发零售业网点的空间集聚特征最显著,住宿业网点的分布相对均衡;各市商业业态结构呈现出批发零售业和餐饮业网点数量为主,以及批发零售业销售额独大的特征;地区生产总值、人口规模、居民人均可支配收入、城市综合可达性以及第三次产业产值比重是影响商业网点分布的重要因素,不同因素对商业网点分布的影响程度差异性较大,居民消费能力和地区发展水平是江苏省商业网点分布差异的主要驱动力。     

Evolution stages of oasis economy and its dependence on natural resources in Tarim River Basin

This paper examines spatio-temporal characteristics of an oasis economy and its relationship with water and mineral resources in the Turim River Basin from 1965 to 2005. A spatial autocorrelation model, the center of gravity model, and index system of the regional central city are used to probe the evolution laws of spatial structure of oasis economy. The study finds that: 1) The economic centre of gravity, whose variation track during this period follows linear rote law, was moving from headstream to middle reaches of the Tarim River. 2) Positive spatial autocorrelation which showed a waving and ascending trend of regional economy was significant and the neighbor effect of regional economic growth was strengthened continuously. 3) The regional economic centre was located in Hotan City before 1980, moved to Aksu City during the 1980s and to Korla City after 1990. We conclude that above all, during the recent four decades the evolution of the oasis economy in this region has gone through three stages: a traditional agriculture stage (before 1980), oasis agriculture and agricultural product processing stage (1980-1990) and oasis energy industry stage (after 1990). Furthermore, the dependence degree of the oasis economy on natural resources in different stages are studied by using dominance index, regression model, and grey relation method, which shows that an oasis economy highly depends on water resources in the oasis agriculture and agricultural product processing stage while it depends more on mineral resources such as oil and natural gas during the oasis energy industry stage.     

Changing mountain farmscapes: vulnerability and migration drivers in the Paute River watershed,Southern Ecuador

Abrupt changes in land use/land cover have often characterized Andean rural landscapes. This is particularly notorious in the Paute River watershed in southern Ecuador. We seek to show how, under tenets of the global economy, rural mountain landscapes suffer constant modifications due to the agricultural practices of dwellers and migrants. Erosion of arable slopes takes center stage in analyzing vulnerability due to the high erodibility factor found in this watershed. By using remote sensing and GIS applications, we analyzed the potential erodibility with intersections of rural development constraining of ecosystem services, including the production of water, food, and cultural values in the Paute River watershed. We found six sources of migratory flows and analyzed topographic and elevation effects in potential erodibility indexes of agroecological options to ameliorate the environmental stress. We identified factors associated with migration trends observed in the area and assessed vulnerability issues of resource management that could prevent deforestation, soil erosion, and acculturation amidst the pressures of development in the region. We conclude that sustainable development options can be implemented with a watershed management approach oriented to diminish emigration. This approach shall be integrative, inclusive, and respectful of the rich biocultural diversity heritage conservation of southern Ecuador.     

中国耕地变化区的气候背景对比分析

研究我国耕地变化区的气候背景,对于了解耕地资源的生产能力,评价耕地占补平衡政策的实施效果,实现耕地资源保护和粮食安全等具有重要意义。本文在分析全国耕地空间变化的基础上,从年平均气温、年降水量和日照时数三个方面,研究耕地增加区和减少区的气候背景,并将其进行比较和分析,以期为国家保护耕地资源和发展农业生产等提供建议。研究结果表明,20世纪80年代末至2008年4个时段,耕地减少区比耕地增加区的年平均气温高0.45~1.05℃,年降水量高56.77~79.59mm,年日照时数少45.80~98.83h。耕地显著减少区比耕地显著增加区的年平均气温高0.81~1.85℃,年降水量高85.69~305.26mm,年日照时数少86.96~207.85h。在四个时段中,我国耕地重心逐渐北移且海拔升高。若海拔高度不变,耕地增加区比耕地减少区北移0.5-1个纬度,耕地显著增加区比耕地显著减少区北移1-2个纬度;若纬度不变,耕地增加区比耕地减少区,海拔升高100~200m,耕地显著增加区比耕地显著减少区,海拔升高150~350m。随年份增加,耕地增加区和显著增加区与耕地减少区和显著减少区在水分条件上的差别越来越大。这些结论对于研究我国粮食生产能力、评价耕地占补平衡、调整产业布局等具有重要意义。