Temporal trends of hydro‐climatic variables and runoff response to climatic variability and vegetation changes in the Yiluo River basin,China

The Yiluo River is the largest tributary for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River below Sanmenxia Dam. Changes of the hydrological processes in the Yiluo River basin, influenced by the climatic variability and human activities, can directly affect ecological integrity in the lower reach of the Yellow River. Understanding the impact of the climatic variability and human activities on the hydrological processes in the Yiluo River basin is especially important to maintain the ecosystem integrity and sustain the society development in the lower reach of the Yellow River basin. In this study, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, air temperature, reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) and runoff during 1961–2000 in the Yiluo River basin were explored by the Mann‐Kendall method (M‐K method), Yamamoto method and linear fitted model. The impacts of the climatic variability and vegetation changes on the annual runoff were discussed by the empirical model and simple water balance model and their contribution to change of annual runoff have been estimated. Results indicated that (i) significant upwards trend for air temperature and significant downwards trend both for precipitation and ET₀ were detected by the M‐K method at 95% confidence level. And the consistent trends were obtained by the linear fitted model; (ii) the abrupt change started from 1987 detected by the M‐K method and Yamamoto method, and so the annual runoff during 1961–2000 was divided into two periods: baseline period (1961–1986) and changeable period (1987–2000); and (iii) the vegetation changes were the main cause for change of annual runoff from baseline period to changeable period, and climatic variability contributed a little to the change of annual runoff of the Yiluo River. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Abrupt change of runoff and its major driving factors in Haihe River Catchment, China

Runoff in Haihe River Catchment of China is steadily declining due to climate change and human activity. Determining abrupt changes in runoff could enhance identification of the main driving factors for the sudden changes. In this study, the sequential Mann–Kendall test analysis is used to determine abrupt changes in runoff in eight sub-catchments of Haihe River Catchment, while trend analysis via the traditional Mann–Kendall test for the period 1960–1999 is used to identify the basic trend of precipitation and runoff. The results suggest an insignificant change in precipitation and a significant decline in runoff in five of the eight sub-catchments. For most of the sub-catchments, abrupt changes in runoff occurred in 1978–1985. Through correlation comparisons for precipitation and runoff for the periods prior to and after abrupt runoff changes, human activity, rather than climatic change, is identified as the main driving factor of runoff decline. It is also noted that abrupt decline in runoff was actually at the beginning of China’s 1978–1985 land reform. Given that the land reform motivated farmers to productively manage their reallocated lands, agricultural water use therefore increased. Hence percent agricultural land is analyzed in relation to land use/cover pattern for the late 1970s and early 1980s. The analysis shows that when cultivated farmland exceeds 25% of a sub-catchment area, an abrupt decline in runoff occurs. It is therefore concluded that high percent agricultural land and related agricultural water use are the most probable driving factors of runoff decline in the catchment.     

Using hydrological simulation to identify contribution of coal mining to runoff change in the Kuye River Basin,China

Under the influence of all kinds of human activities, runoff decreased significantly in most river basins in China over the past decades. Assessing the effect of specific human activities on runoff is essential not only for understanding the mechanism of hydrological response in the catchment, but also for local water resources management. The Kuye River, the first-order tributary of the middle Yellow River, has experienced significant runoff declines. The coal resources are rich in the Kuye River Basin. In mined out area some cranny changed the hydrogeological conditions of the mining area and the hydrological process of the basin. In this study, the time series of runoff was divided into three periods at two critical years of 1979 and 1999 by precipitation–runoff double accumulation curve. The Yellow River Water Balance Model (YRWBM) is calibrated and verified to a baseline period in 1955–1978. Subsequently, natural runoff for human-induced period (1979 to 1998) and strongly human-induced period (1999 to 2010) is reconstructed using the YRWBM model. The YRWBM model performed well in simulating monthly discharges in the catchment, both Nash Sutcliffe coefficients in calibration and verification were above 70%, while relative errors in both periods were at less than 5%. The percentage of runoff reduction attributing to human activities was from 39.44% in 1979–1998 to 56.50% in 1999–2010. Further the influence of coal mining on river runoff was assessed quantitatively by YRWBM model simulation. The influence of coal mining on runoff reduction was 29.69 mm in 1999–2010 which was about 2.58 × 10⁸ m³/a. It accounted for 71.13% of the runoff reduction during this period. Coal mining became a dominant factor causing the runoff reduction.     

Using geochemical tracing system to identify new types of gas sources in marine strata of the Hotan River Gas Field in the Tarim Basin

There are natural gas sources of various modes of occurrence in superimposed basins. Besides the conventional kerogen and ancient oil reservoir, dispersed soluble organic matter (DSOM) is an important direct gas source. Because of its wide distribution, great potential to generate gas and proneness to crack under catalysis, DSOM is an important type of gas source in the highly evolved zones in marine strata. Through the geological and geochemical analysis that reflects the long-period evolvement and multipl...     

Analysis of the temporal variability of runoff in Ivory Coast: statistical approach and phenomena characterization

Abstract

The runoffs at four Ivory Coast hydrometric stations (monitoring flows from an area covering between 5930 and 66500 km²) were analysed with a set of statistical methods for the detection of breaks in the time series. The variables studied were the annual mean discharge and some characteristic discharges. From a quantitative standpoint, the existence of a clear break in the series of annual mean discharges at the beginning of the decade from 1970, the date from which the runoffs decrease significantly, was noted. A more qualitative study of the results showed that low flows were more affected than high flows by this variability of the regime. This fluctuation appears to be in accord with the drought phenomena observed during the same period in the Sahel, to the north of Ivory Coast.     

城市化背景下年最大日径流演变及影响因素研究——以长江下游秦淮河流域为例

随着气候变化和人类活动的加剧,城市化地区水文过程受到较大影响,极端水文事件发生频率显著加大,探究城市化地区洪水演变和驱动机理对于防洪减灾具有重大意义。本文以长江下游快速城市化地区的秦淮河流域为例,分析了1987—2018年期间该流域年最大日径流的演变特征,构建多元线性回归模型和广义可加GAMLSS模型识别了关键驱动因子并量化其贡献作用。结果表明:(1)城市化背景下秦淮河流域年最大日径流呈现显著上升趋势,平均增长速率为14.77 m³/(s·a),并于2001年发生显著突变。(2)汛期降水量和不透水面率是年最大日径流变化的关键驱动因素,最优模型显示前者贡献率超过了70%,表明了降水改变的决定性作用,而不透水面率贡献率超过20%则表明了下垫面的改变对年最大日径流演变存在显著影响。(3)不透水面的增加对年最大日径流和汛期降水量响应关系的影响程度从突变前的6.7%增加到突变后的10.4%,快速城市化已显著改变了流域降水-径流响应过程。研究表明,随着城市发展秦淮河流域的年最大日径流受到人类活动显著影响,洪涝威胁日趋增大,研究结果可为城市化地区防洪减灾提供一定参考。     

Shift trend and step changes for runoff time series in the Shiyang River basin,northwest China

Shift trend and step changes were detected for runoff time series in the Shiyang River basin, one of the inland river basins in north‐west China. Annual runoff data from eight tributaries as well as both annual and monthly runoff from the mainstream from 1958 to 2003 were used. Seven statistical test methods were employed to identify the shift trends and step changes in the study. Mann–Kendall test, Spearman's Rho test, linear regression and Hurst exponent were used to detect past and future shift trends for runoff time series, while the distributed‐free CUSUM test, cumulative deviations and the Worsley likelihood ratio test were used to detect step changes for the same time series. Results showed that the annual runoff from Zamu, Huangyang and Gulang rivers, as well as both annual and monthly runoff from the mainstream, show statistically significant decreasing trends. Future tendency of runoff for both tributaries and mainstream were consistent with that from 1958 to 2003. Step changes probably occurred in 1961 for the runoff from Huangyang, Gulang and Dajing rivers according to the Worsley likelihood ratio test, but no similar results were found using the other two test methods. Three change points (1979, 1974 and 1973) were detected for the mainstream using different methods. These change points were close to the years that reservoirs started to be operated. Both climate change and human activities, especially the latter, contributed to the decreasing runoff in the study area. Between 21% and 79% of the reduction in runoff from the mainstream was due to the impact of human activities during the past few decades. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2000年以来青藏高原湖泊面积变化与气候要素的响应关系

青藏高原星罗密布的湖泊对气候变化十分敏感,在自然界水循环和水平衡中发挥着重要作用.以MODIS MOD09A1和SRTM DEM为数据源,提取了2000-2016年青藏高原丰水期面积大于50 km²的湖泊边界,从内外流分区、湖泊主要补给来源和湖水矿化度三个方面对2000年以来湖泊面积变化进行分析,并结合青藏高原近36年气象数据,根据气象要素变化趋势分区,初步探讨青藏高原湖泊面积变化与气候要素的关系.结果表明：青藏高原面积大于50 km²的138个湖泊整体扩张趋势显著,总面积增加2340.67 km²,增长率为235.52 km²/a.其中,扩张型湖泊占67.39%,萎缩型湖泊占12.32%,稳定型湖泊占20.29%.内流湖扩张趋势显著,外流湖扩张趋势较明显;以冰雪融水为主要补给来源的湖泊整体扩张趋势明显,以地表径流和河流补给为主要补给源的湖泊也呈扩张趋势;盐湖和咸水湖以扩张为主,淡水湖的扩张、萎缩和稳定三种类型较均衡.在青藏高原气候暖湿化方向发展背景下,湖泊面积变化与气候要素具有显著的区域相关性.气温和降水变化趋势分区结果表明,气温增加、降水增加强趋势的高原Ⅰ区湖泊扩张程度（78.18%）依次大于气温降低、降水量呈增加趋势的Ⅴ区（66.67%）,气温、降水量呈增加趋势的Ⅱ区（60.78%）,气温呈降低、降水量呈增加强趋势的Ⅳ区（58.83%）和气温呈增加、降水量呈减少趋势的Ⅲ区（50.00%）.湖泊面积变化对气候变化响应研究表明,升温引起的冰雪融水补给对Ⅰ区、Ⅱ区和Ⅲ区湖泊面积扩张的影响显著,加之降水量的增加,湖泊扩张速率明显;Ⅳ区和Ⅴ区湖泊面积扩张主要受降水量增加影响显著.整体而言,气温主要影响以冰雪融水为主要补给来源的湖泊,降水量主要影响以降水和地表径流为主要补给来源的湖泊.     

Characterizing the heterogeneity of karst critical zone and its hydrological function: An integrated approach

Spatial heterogeneity in the subsurface of karst environments is high, as evidenced by the multiphase porosity of carbonate rocks and complex landform features that result in marked variability of hydrological processes in space and time. This includes complex exchange of various flows (e.g., fast conduit flows and slow fracture flows) in different locations. Here, we integrate various “state‐of‐the‐art” methods to understand the structure and function of this poorly constrained critical zone environment. Geophysical, hydrometric, and tracer tools are used to characterize the hydrological functions of the cockpit karst critical zone in the small catchment of Chenqi, Guizhou Province, China. Geophysical surveys, using electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), inferred the spatial heterogeneity of permeability in the epikarst and underlying aquifer. Water tables in depression wells in valley bottom areas, as well as discharge from springs on steeper hillslopes and at the catchment outlet, showed different hydrodynamic responses to storm event rainwater recharge and hillslope flows. Tracer studies using water temperatures and stable water isotopes (δD and δ¹⁸O) could be used alongside insights into aquifer permeability from ERT surveys to explain site‐ and depth‐dependent variability in the groundwater response in terms of the degree to which “new” water from storm rainfall recharges and mixes with “old” pre‐event water in karst aquifers. This integrated approach reveals spatial structure in the karst critical zone and provides a conceptual framework of hydrological functions across spatial and temporal scales.     

An approach to analysing plot scale infiltration and runoff responses to rainfall of fluctuating intensity

Simulated rainfall of fluctuating intensity was applied to runoff plots on bare dryland soils in order to explore a new method for analysing the non‐steady‐state responses of infiltration and overland flow. The rainfall events all averaged 10 mm/h but included intensity bursts of up to 70 mm/h and lasting 5–15 min, as well as periods of low intensity and intermittency of up to 25 min. Results were compared with traditional steady‐state estimates of infiltrability made under simulated rainfall sustained at a fixed intensity of 10 mm/h. Mean event infiltration rate averaged 13.6% higher under fluctuating intensities, while runoff ratios averaged only 63% of those seen under constant intensity. In order to understand the changing soil infiltrability, up to three affine Horton infiltration equations were fitted to segments of each experiment. All equations had the same final infiltrability f_c, but adjusted values for coefficients f₀ (initial infiltrability) and K_f (exponential decay constant) were fitted for periods of rainfall that followed significant hiatuses in rainfall, during which subsurface redistribution allowed near‐surface soil suction to recover. According to the fitted Horton equations, soil infiltrability recovered by up 10–24 mm/h during intra‐event rainfall hiatuses of 15 to 20‐min duration, contributing to higher overall event infiltration rates and to reduced runoff ratios. The recovery of infiltrability also reduced the size of runoff peaks following periods of low intensity rainfall, compared with the predictions based on single Horton infiltration equations, and in some cases, no runoff at all was recorded from late intensity peaks. The principal finding of this study is that, using a set of affine equations, the intra‐event time variation of soil infiltrability can be tracked through multiple intensity bursts and hiatuses, despite the lack of steady‐state conditions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multivariate statistical analysis to identify the major factors governing groundwater quality in the coastal area of Kimje,South Korea

The main purpose of this study is to identify the major factors affecting groundwater quality by means of multivariate statistical analysis of the physico‐chemical compositions. Cluster analysis results show that the groundwater in the study area is classified into four groups (A, B, C and D), and factor analysis indicates that groundwater composition, 81·9% of the total variance of 17 variables, is mainly affected by three factors: seawater intrusion, microbial activity and chemical fertilizers. These results might be related to the geographical characteristics of the study area. The main influence on groundwater in groups B, C and D, which are close to the Yellow Sea and contain reclaimed areas, is the seawater intrusion by the present seawater, the trapped seawater, and microbial activity. Group A, however, has been used for agriculture for a long time, and thus groundwater in this group has been largely affected by chemical fertilizers. As groundwater flows from group A to group D according to its path, the governing factor of the groundwater quality gradually changes from chemical fertilizers to microbial activity and seawater intrusion. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multivariate statistical approach to identify significant sources influencing the physico-chemical variables in Aerial Bay,North Andaman,India

Aerial Bay is one of the harbor towns of Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the union territory of India. Nevertheless, it is least studied marine environment, particularly for physico-chemical assessment. Therefore, to evaluate the annual spatiotemporal variations of physico-chemical parameters, seawater samples collected from 20 sampling stations covering three seasons were analyzed. Multivariate statistics is applied to the investigated data in an attempt to understand the causes of variation in physico-chemical parameters. Cluster analysis distinguished mangrove and open sea stations from other areas by considering distinctive physico-chemical characteristics. Factor analysis revealed 79.5% of total variance in physico-chemical parameters. Strong loading included transparency, TSS, DO, BOD, salinity, nitrate, nitrite, inorganic phosphate, total phosphorus and silicate. In addition, box-whisker plots and Geographical Information System based land use data further facilitated and supported multivariate results.     

An integrated approach for investigating geomorphic response to extreme events: methodological framework and application to the October 2011 flood in the Magra River catchment,Italy

A high‐magnitude flash flood, which took place on 25 October 2011 in the Magra River catchment (1717 km²), central‐northern Italy, is used to illustrate some aspects of the geomorphic response to the flood. An overall methodological framework is described for using interlinked observations and analyses of the geomorphic impacts of an extreme event. The following methods and analyses were carried out: (i) hydrological and hydraulic analysis of the event; (ii) sediment delivery by event landslide mapping; (iii) identification and estimation of wood recruitment, deposition, and budgeting; (iv) interpretation of morphological processes by analysing fluvial deposits; (v) remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) analysis of channel width changes. In response to the high‐magnitude hydrological event, a large number of landslides occurred, consisting of earth flows, soil slips, and translational slides, and a large quantity of wood was recruited, in most part deriving from floodplain erosion caused by bank retreat and channel widening. The most important impact of the flood event within the valley floor was an impressive widening of the overall channel bed and the reactivation of wide portions of the pre‐event floodplain. Along the investigated (unconfined or partly confined) streams (total investigated length of 93.5 km), the channel width after the flood was up to about 20 times the channel width before the event. The study has shown that a synergic use of different methods and types of evidence provides fundamental information for characterizing and understanding the geomorphic effects of intense flood events. The prediction of geomorphic response to a flood event is still challenging and many limitations exist; however a robust geomorphological analysis can contribute to the identification of the most critical reaches. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于MODIS数据的博斯腾湖流域植被变化及其与气候因子的关系

以博斯腾湖流域为研究区,基于2001-2016年时间序列的MODIS NDVI数据分析了研究区植被的时空变化趋势,并结合流域气象站点的气温、降水、日照时数和相对湿度数据分析了植被生长季累积NDVI和16天NDVI与气候因子之间的响应特征.结果表明:(1)流域植被覆盖变化呈改善趋势,生长季累积NDVI年变化率为0.014 a-1,16天NDVI变化率均为正值,植被改善趋势显著区域主要分布在高山草原湿地和农业灌溉区边缘的新增农田.(2)植被生长季累积NDVI主要受降水和相对湿度影响,植被总体生产力与水分条件关系最密切,生长季逐16天NDVI与同期气温和日照时数在植被生长初期和末期关系显著,而与降水没有显著的相关性,说明植被短期瞬时长势对热量条件更为敏感.(3)在植被生长不同阶段对气候变化具有不同的滞后效应,其中植被生长初期和末期对气温有0.5~1个月的滞后,生长盛期对降水有0.5~3个月的滞后、日照时数有1.5~2.5个月的滞后、相对湿度有0.5~2.5个月的滞后,揭示了植被不同生长阶段水热条件对其生长韵律的控制差异.     

An integrated approach for modeling solute transport in streams and canals with applications

A new modeling approach for solute transport in streams and canals was developed to simulate solute dissolution, transport, and decay with continuously migrating sources. The new approach can efficiently handle complicated solute source feeding schemes and initial conditions. Incorporating the finite volume method (FVM) and the ULTIMATE QUICKEST numerical scheme, the new approach is capable of predicting fate and transport of solute that is added to small streams or canals, typically in a continuous fashion. The approach was tested successfully using a hypothetical case, and then applied to an actual field experiment, where linear anionic polyacrylamide (LA-PAM) was applied to an earthen canal. The field experiment was simulated first as a fixed boundary problem using measured concentration data as the boundary condition to test model parameters and sensitivities. The approach was then applied to a moving boundary problem, which included subsequent LA-PAM dissolution, settling to the canal bottom and transport with the flowing canal water. Simulation results showed that the modeling approach developed in this study performed satisfactorily and can be used to simulate a variety of transport problems in streams and canals.     

新疆布伦托海轮虫群落结构及其与环境因子的关系

本文于2006年秋至2008年夏,对新疆布伦托海轮虫的群落组成、时空分布及其与环境因子的相关性进行了系统的调查.结果表明,本次调查采集到布伦托海轮虫30种,主要优势种有针簇多枝轮虫(Polyarthra trigla)、长三肢轮虫(Filina longiseta)、奇异六腕轮虫(Hexarthra mira)、方形臂...     

An integral-balance nonlinear model to simulate changes in soil moisture,groundwater and surface runoff dynamics at the hillslope scale

We present a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) capable of reproducing simultaneously the aggregated behavior of changes in water storage in the hillslope surface, the unsaturated and the saturated soil layers and the channel that drains the hillslope. The system of equations can be viewed as a two-state integral-balance model for soil moisture and groundwater dynamics. Development of the model was motivated by the need for landscape representation through hillslopes and channels organized following stream drainage network topology. Such a representation, with the basic discretization unit of a hillslope, allows ODEs-based simulation of the water transport in a basin. This, in turn, admits the use of highly efficient numerical solvers that enable space–time scaling studies. The goal of this paper is to investigate whether a nonlinear ODE system can effectively replicate observations of water storage in the unsaturated and saturated layers of the soil. Our first finding is that a previously proposed ODE hillslope model, based on readily available data, is capable of reproducing streamflow fluctuations but fails to reproduce the interactions between the surface and subsurface components at the hillslope scale. However, the more complex ODE model that we present in this paper achieves this goal. In our model, fluxes in the soil are described using a Taylor expansion of the underlying storage flux relationship. We tested the model using data collected in the Shale Hills watershed, a 7.9-ha forested site in central Pennsylvania, during an artificial drainage experiment in August 1974 where soil moisture in the unsaturated zone, groundwater dynamics and surface runoff were monitored. The ODE model can be used as an alternative to spatially explicit hillslope models, based on systems of partial differential equations, which require more computational power to resolve fluxes at the hillslope scale. Therefore, it is appropriate to be coupled to runoff routing models to investigate the effect of runoff and its uncertainty propagation across scales. However, this improved performance comes at the expense of introducing two additional parameters that have no obvious physical interpretation. We discuss the implications of this for hydrologic studies across scales.     

贵州蒸发皿蒸发量变化趋势及影响因素分析

以贵州境内18个气象站1961-2001年逐日气象观测数据为基础,采用Mann-Kendal非参数检验方法、相关分析和主成分分析方法对贵州近41年来蒸发皿蒸发量及其主要影响因子(太阳净辐射、气温、相对湿度和风速等)进行了相关性及趋势性分析.结果表明:近41年来,贵州年平均蒸发皿蒸发量呈显著下降趋势,通过99%的置信度检验,蒸发量的下降主要表现在冬、春、夏三季.从区域分布来看,蒸发皿蒸发量整体上东部及西北部分地区显著减少,其他地区趋势变化不明显.蒸发皿蒸发量下降的主要原因是太阳净辐射的显著下降.     

Variation of reference evapotranspiration and its contributing climatic factors in the Poyang Lake catchment,China

By using linear regression (parametric), Mann–Kendall (nonparametric) and attribution analysis methods, this study systematically analysed the changing properties of reference evapotranspiration (ETr) calculated using the Penman–Monteith method over the Poyang Lake catchment during 1960–2008 and investigated the contribution of major climatic variables to ETr changes and their temporal evolution. Generally, a significant decreasing trend of annual ETr is found in the catchment. The decrease of annual ETr in the Poyang Lake basin is mostly affected by the decline of summer ETr. Over the study period, climatic variables, i.e. sunshine duration (SD), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS) and vapour pressure all showed decreasing trends, whereas mean daily temperature (DT) increased significantly. Multivariate regression analysis indicated that SD is the most sensitive climatic variable to the variability of ETr on annual basis, followed by RH, WS and DT, whereas the effect of vapour pressure is obscure. Although recent warming trend and decrease of relative humidity over the catchment could have increased ETr, the combined effect of shortened SD and reduced WS negated the effect and caused significant decrease of ETr. Our investigation reveals that the relative contributions of climatic variables to ETr are temporally unstable and vary considerably with large fluctuation. In consideration of the changes of climatic variables over time, further analysis indicated that changes of mean annual ETr in 1970–2008 were primarily affected by SD followed by WS, RH and DT with reference to 1960s. However, WS became the predominant factor during the period 2000–2008 compared with reference period 1960s, and followed by SD. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Response of runoff to climate change in the Wei River basin,China

Abstract

Climate change will likely have severe effects on water shortages, flood disasters and the deterioration of aquatic systems. In this study, the hydrological response to climate change was assessed in the Wei River basin (WRB), China. The statistical downscaling method (SDSM) was used to downscale regional climate change scenarios on the basis of the outputs of three general circulation models (GCMs) and two emissions scenarios. Driven by these scenarios, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was set up, calibrated and validated to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological processes of the WRB. The results showed that the average annual runoff in the periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 would increase by 12.4% and 45%, respectively, relative to the baseline period 1961–2008. Low flows would be much lower, while high flows would be much higher, which means there would be more extreme events of droughts and floods. The results exhibited consistency in the spatial distribution of runoff change under most scenarios, with decreased runoff in the upstream regions, and increases in the mid- and lower reaches of the WRB.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Yang