非线性相对运动下空间碎片碰撞概率计算的研究

空间目标碰撞概率的计算是航天器进行空间碎片预警和规避机动的基础.为了简化计算,目前国内外在计算碰撞概率问题过程中大多基于线性相对运动的条件,将三维碰撞概率计算积分问题简化为位置误差概率密度函数在圆域内的二维积分问题.但是当空间目标相对运动速度较小时,这种线性运动条件不再成立,就需要在真实的非线性相对运动状态下重新考虑碰...     

碰撞风险评估标准适用性分析

随着空间碎片数量的不断增加,空间目标碰撞预警技术已经受到人们越来越多的关注.早期普遍使用几何区域(BOX)判定法对空间目标的碰撞风险进行评估,但它是一种比较保守的方法,工程实用性低;90年代后开始广泛地研究和采用碰撞概率判定法,这种方法综合考虑空间目标交会时刻的多个参数,但是由于其数学模型对轨道误差数据的依赖程度很高,所以在某些情况下会导致预警结果不准确.通过仿真的方法,模拟两条确定交会的标准精密轨道,由程序生成随机误差加入到标准轨道生成有误差的轨道,计算最接近距离和碰撞概率,并分析二者之间的关系.结果表明,当轨道预报精度较差时,碰撞概率判定法可能会失效,需要结合几何区域判定法进行综合判定,以避免碰撞预警过程中的"误判"和"漏判".     

空间碎片观测精度分析

文章分别用内符合精度和外符合精度两种精度指标对云南天文台SBG望远镜的观测数据进行判定，确定了其观测精度。得到高轨空间碎片的观测精度约为2″，和低轨空间碎片的观测精度约为7″，并对观测误差的来源作了一些初步的分析。     

地基光电望远镜对GEO空间碎片探测能力分析

空间碎片的持续增加已严重威胁人类航天活动的安全。为了规避空间碎片对在轨航天器的威胁,需要通过观测获取空间碎片与航天器的位置等信息进行碰撞预警,为航天器采取规避措施提供参考。地基光电望远镜在高轨空间碎片观测方面有绝对优势,根据探测信噪比公式,计算望远镜最小可探测空间碎片的尺寸,并通过观测实验对尺寸计算公式进行验证,分析设备探测能力的影响因素,对两种观测模式下设备探测地球静止轨道空间碎片的能力进行分析,得到口径和曝光时间对探测能力影响的定量关系,可以为观测空间碎片设备建设等提供参考。     

用陕西天文台流星雷达监测人为空间碎片可能性的分析

本文分析了利用中国科学院陕西天文台的流星雷达进行人为空间碎片监测的可能性．详细计算了到达接收机的回波的信噪比Ｓ／Ｎ依赖于目标散射横截面。和高度距离Ｒ的关系。理论计算表明，利用陕西天文台的流星雷达完全有可能监测在２００ｋｍ至１２００ｋｍ的高度范围内，半径大于０．５ｍ的人为空间碎片．     

特定区域内空间碎片仿真分析

针对载人航天的典型区域,利用目前流行的空间碎片模型对空间碎片分布进行了初步仿真,得到了一些定量的仿真结果,并对其进行了初步的分析;得到以下初步结论:400 km高度、倾角为40°～50°区域内,飞行器每年遭遇分米至米级尺度的空间碎片的概率为千万分之一量级;每年遭遇厘米级尺度的空间碎片的概率为百万分之一量级;每年遭遇毫米级尺度的空间碎片的概率为百分之四左右;每年遭遇0.1 mm级尺度的空间碎片约2次;每年遭遇0.01 mm级尺度的空间碎片约550～600次。可供相关工程应用部门参考。     

高轨空间碎片的观测模拟

对高轨空间碎片进行了观测模拟。在观测模拟中，分别选取南京和云南两个观测站；采用2种跟踪方式：跟踪恒星和跟踪卫星；对于同一地理经度上的同步卫星进行了观测；提供了发现新目标的方法；并给出了新目标的初轨。这为我国空间碎片的数据库的建立作了有益的尝试，对于卫星和航天器的飞行安全具有特别重要的意义。     

面向空间碎片观测的望远镜指向误差校正方法

空间碎片光学观测图像的处理过程中,受望远镜指向误差影响,背景恒星易出现错误匹配或无法匹配的情况,给底片模型的计算与目标的精密定位带来困难.从空间碎片观测图像的特点出发,提出了一种基于特征恒星的多邻域迭代匹配法.实测数据的试验结果表明,该方法消除了望远镜跟踪误差带来的影响,大幅提高了背景星图匹配的效率与正确率,且时间开销较少,有利于数据的实时处理.     

卫星径向位置摄动计算中的几个问题

为了对卫星轨道径向位置误差进行分析，本文将给出由地球非球形引力位（包括潮汐形变）引起的卫星径向位置摄动表达式，它将同时包含完整的卫星轨道偏心率的0阶和1阶项，并给出径向位置摄动空间分布的一种简单计算方法，它可明显地节省计算机时．     

针对低轨星座的空间信号测距误差投影系数确定

随着低轨星座建设的不断推进,计算卫星空间信号测距误差(signal in space range error,SISRE)的面向对象不再局限于全球卫星导航系统(Global Navigation Satellite System, GNSS)的地面用户,还包括GNSS的低轨星载用户和低轨导航系统地面用户。为更好地支持基于低轨星座SISRE的解算,根据SISRE的计算原理,分别研究了低轨星载用户和低轨卫星地面用户的SISRE误差投影系数的特征。计算结果显示,GNSS卫星对地面用户的误差投影系数并不适用于低轨星载用户及低轨导航星座地面用户。当低轨卫星轨道高度由2 000 km降低至300 km时,GNSS卫星对低轨星载接收机的轨道径向误差投影系数由0.96增加到0.98,轨道切法平面误差投影系数由0.20降低至0.15;低轨卫星对地面用户的轨道径向误差投影系数从0.72降至0.37,轨道切法平面误差投影系数从0.49增加至0.66。上述结果可为未来低轨卫星相关的空间信号测距误差分析以及低轨完好性研究提供重要参考。     

A Research on the Collision Probability Calculation of Space Debris for Nonlinear Relative Motions†

The calculation of collision probability is the foundation of collision detection and avoidance maneuver for space objects. Now an assumption of linear relative motion is usually applied in the calculation of collision probability and then the complex 3-dimensional problem can be reduced to a 2-dimensional integral of probability density function over the area of circle. However, if the relative velocity value is very small, the term of linear relative motion is not valid. So it is necessary to consider the calculation of collision probability for nonlinear relative motions. The method used to calculate collision probability for nonlinear relative motion is studied, and test cases are designed to justify the validity of this method. It is applicable to collision probability problems involving relative velocity and error covariance varying with time. The results indicate that it is necessary to calculate collision probability with this nonlinear method under certain circumstances. For example, for elliptical relative motions in Satellite Formation Flying, when the relative velocity is below 100 m/s, the relative error between the linear method and the nonlinear method exceeds 5%; for the problem of conjunction analysis of two satellites with circular orbits, when the relative velocity is below 10 m/s, the relative error is also larger than 1%. Some significant conclusions are obtained for the collision detection system of our country.     

Collision risk against space debris in Earth orbits

?pik’s formulae for the probability of collision are applied to the analysis of the collision risk against space debris in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) and Medium Earth Orbit. The simple analytical formulation of ?pik’s theory makes it applicable to complex dynamical systems, such as the interaction of the ISS with the whole debris population in LEO The effect of a fragmentation within a multiplane constellation can also be addressed. The analysis of the evolution of the collision risk in Earth orbit shows the need of effective mitigation measures to limit the growth of the collision risk and of the fragmentation debris in the next century.     

两行根数辅助的SLR单站定轨

单站测距资料定轨的困难限制了漫反射SLR(Satellite Laser Ranging)测距资料的应用.为此,提出利用两行根数模拟多站SLR测距资料作为辅助,实现单站SLR测距资料定轨的方法.该方法对卫星Ajisai单站SLR测距资料定轨并生成5 d预报轨道,误差小于40 m,实现利用单站测距资料的轨道改进,验证了方法的可行性.     

An improved astrometric calibration technique for space debris observation

An optical survey is the main technique for detecting space debris. Due to the specific characteristics of observation, the pointing errors and tracking errors of the telescope as well as image degradation may be significant, which make it difficult for astrometric calibration. Here we present an improved method that corrects the pointing and tracking errors, and measures the image position precisely. The pipeline is tested on a number of CCD images obtained from a 1-m telescope administered by Xinjiang Astronomical Observatory while observing a GPS satellite. The results show that the position measurement error of the background stars is around 0.1 pixel, while the time cost for a single frame is about 7.5 s; hence the reliability and accuracy of our method are demonstrated. In addition, our method shows a versatile and feasible way to perform space debris observation utilizing non-dedicated telescopes, which means more sensors could be involved and the ability to perform surveys could be improved.     

Planetesimals to protoplanets – II. Effect of debris on terrestrial planet formation

In this paper, we extend our numerical method for simulating terrestrial planet formation to include dynamical friction from the unresolved debris component. In the previous work, we implemented a rubble pile planetesimal collision model into direct N -body simulations of terrestrial planet formation. The new collision model treated both accretion and erosion of planetesimals but did not include dynamical friction from debris particles smaller than the resolution limit for the simulation. By extending our numerical model to include dynamical friction from the unresolved debris, we can simulate the dynamical effect of debris produced during collisions and can also investigate the effect of initial debris mass on terrestrial planet formation. We find that significant initial debris mass, 10 per cent or more of the total disc mass, changes the mode of planetesimal growth. Specifically, planetesimals in this situation do not go through a runaway growth phase. Instead, they grow concurrently, similar to oligarchic growth. The dynamical friction from the unresolved debris damps the eccentricities of the planetesimals, reducing the mean impact speeds and causing all collisions to result in merging with no mass loss. As a result, there is no debris production. The mass in debris slowly decreases with time. In addition to including the dynamical friction from the unresolved debris, we have implemented particle tracking as a proxy for monitoring compositional mixing. Although there is much less mixing due to collisions and gravitational scattering when dynamical friction of the background debris is included, there is significant inward migration of the largest protoplanets in the most extreme initial conditions (for which the initial mass in unresolved debris is at least equal to the mass in resolved planetesimals).     

The relationship of auroral absorption to the electron energy distribution of the plasma

An auroral absorption event in the D-region of the atmosphere has been studied by simultaneous measurements of electron temperature, electron density and hyperthermal electrons with a Langmuir probe, and of radio absorption coefficient by 30 MHz riometers. The absorption of the radio waves cannot be explained only by the enhancement of the electron density but requires that the electron collision frequency v be increased above its normal value by the presence of a high energy tail in the electron distribution function. A model is used to determine the characteristics of the hyperthermal electrons in order to evaluate their contribution to the collision frequency and to the absorption coefficient. Good agreement is found between theoretical and experimental values.     

Scope of high-frequency time keeping in searches for short-period gamma-ray sources

This paper presents a novel technique to derive the absolute time of occurrence of an event with an accuracy of < 200 μs by adapting the HF time synchronization technique to correct for the aging rate and the frequency drift of a temperature-controlled quartz frequency standard. The propagation delay suffered by the HF time signals has been estimated by monitoring the clock error with respect to time signals from five broadcast stations located at distances in the range 500–3700 km from Gulmarg. Using simulated data, we further show the viability of this technique in permitting periodicity searches on timescales of ≥5 milliseconds in cosmic gamma-ray data An erratum to this article is available at .     

A Method for Detecting Space Debris based on Apriori Information

A method for detecting space debris images in the light of apriori information is proposed. As far as this method is concerned, a range gate in the neighborhood of the debris star image in the whole image is set through apriori information, and the local background threshold value within the range gate is calculated, in order to identify the object in the help of some criteria. Then, the moment method is utilized to calculate the deviation of the debris barycenter with respect to the gate center, and the position of the debris barycenter on the whole image is calculated through a linear translation. Experiments show that the method has a low complexity, good real-time performance, and the convenience of realization, it can be used to detect space debris effciently and accurately and to determine the position of the debris barycenter more precisely.     

Correction Method of Antenna Pointing Error Caused by the Main Reflector Deformation

The pointing accuracy of a radio telescope is usually less than one-tenth of its antenna beam width. For large-aperture antennas at the short-centimeter band or millimeter-wave band, the pointing accuracy must be as high as several arc seconds. Therefore, for large-diameter and high-frequency reflector antennas, the pointing problem has become an important focal point to realize the antenna performance. Among many structural subsystem factors that affect the antenna pointing accuracy, there has been only less study on the factor of main reflector deformation. Based on the structural characteristics of the antenna, a reflector space coordinate system is established in this paper. And based on the space coordinates of the main reflector surface points after deformation, a non-linear least squares fitting method with 3 degrees of freedom is proposed to accurately predict the antenna pointing. Finally, the space geometric relationship is used to strictly derive the precise adjustments on the elevation and azimuth in order for correcting the antenna pointing error, and the indirect relationship between the main reflector deformation and the pointing error is constructed. This has certain guiding significance for improving the pointing accuracy of large radio antennas.     

空间碎片天基光电光学可见条件与预报

随着航天活动的增加，产生的空间碎片也越来越多，空间环境日趋恶化，已经对人类的空间活动构成了威胁。监视测量这些空间碎片，天基光电比地基光电更为有利，而天基光电的光学可见条件与地基光电相比，有相似的，也有不同的，针对天基光电，给出了空间碎片的光学可见条件，即日光条件、地影条件、地光条件、地球背景条件、月光条件。在天基光电轨道特征、光学可见条件及天基光电坐标系已知的情况下，建立起天基光电预报方法。既可用于空间碎片预报，也可以用于空间碎片的轨道识别。