On the proposed associations of solar neutrino flux with solar particles,cosmic rays,and the solar activity cycle

It has been proposed that the observed solar neutrino flux exhibits important correlations with solar particles, galactic cosmic rays, and the sunspot cycle, with the latter correlation being opposite in phase and lagging behind the sunspot cycle by about one year. Re-examination of the data-available interval 1971–1981, employing various tests of statistical significance, however, suggests that such a claim is, at present, unwarrantable. For example, on the associations of solar neutrino flux and cosmic-ray flux with the Ap geomagnetic index, neither were found to be statistically significant (at the 95% level of confidence), regardless of the choice of lag (-1, 0, or +1 yr). Presuming linear fits, all correlations with Ap had coefficients of determination (r ², where r is the linear correlation coefficient) less than 16%, meaning that 16% of the variation in the selected test parameters could be explained by the variation in Ap. Similarly, on the associations of solar neutrino flux and cosmic ray flux with sunspot number, only the latter association proved to be of statistical importance. Using the best linear fits, the correlation between yearly averages of solar neutrino flux and sunspot number had r ² 19%, the correlation between weighted moving averages (of order 5) of solar neutrino flux and sunspot number had r ² 45%, and the correlation between cosmic-ray flux and sunspot number had r ² 76%, all correlations being inverse associations. Solar neutrino flux was found not to correlate strongly with cosmic-ray flux, and the Ap geomagnetic index was found not to correlate strongly with sunspot number.     

On the presence of SH in the sunspot spectrum

The expected equivalent widths of individual rotational lines of the most intense Q ₂ branch of the 0-0 band of the A ²-X²_i; system of S³²H and S³⁴H have been calculated in the umbral spectrum for five disk positions using Zwaan's (1974) sunspot model. Percentage abundance of S³⁴ in the terrestrial case has been considered valid in our calculations.Strong lines of S³²H and S³⁴H of the A-X band system should be detectable in the sunspot spectrum. The molecule SH may play a possible role as a major opacity source in the ultraviolet spectrum of sunspots along with the molecule OH in the upper layers (up to _0.5m = 1.0) wherefrom most of the continuum arises. Study of this molecule in the umbral spectrum may also provide the solar isotopic abundance ratio N(S³²)/N(S³⁴).     

Correlation Between the Sunspot Number,the Total Solar Irradiance,and the Terrestrial Insolation

Our study deals with the correlations between the solar activity on the one hand and the solar irradiance above the Earth’s atmosphere and at ground level on the other. We analyzed the combined ACRIM I+II time series of the total solar irradiance (TSI), the Mauna Loa time series of terrestrial insolation data, and data of terrestrial cosmic ray fluxes. We find that the correlation between the TSI and the sunspot number is strongly non-linear. We interpret this as the net balance between brightening by faculae and darkening by sunspots where faculae dominate at low activity and sunspots dominate at high activity. Such a behavior is hitherto known from stellar analogs of the Sun in a statistical manner. We perform the same analysis for the Mauna Loa data of terrestrial insolation. Here we find that the linear relation between sunspot number and insolation shows more than 1% rise in insolation by sunspot number variations which is much stronger than for the TSI. Our conclusion is that the Earth atmosphere acts as an amplifier between space and ground, and that the amplification is probably controlled by solar activity. We suspect the cosmic rays intensity as the link between solar activity and atmospheric transparency. A Fourier analysis of the time series of insolation shows three dominant peaks: 10.5, 20.4, and 14.0 years. As a matter of fact, the cosmic rays data show the same pattern of significant peaks: 10.7, 22.4, and 14.9 years. This analogy supports our idea that the cosmic rays variation has influence on the transparency of the Earth atmosphere.     

Facular excess radiation and the energy balance of solar active regions

Plage areas and intensities derived from CaII K spectroheliograms are used as a proxy for the facular irradiance excess of solar active regions for the period 19 August to 4 September 1980. Using a calibration method proposed by Vrnak et al. (1991), the photospheric facular index (PFI) with constant facular contrastC _p = 0.018 is replaced by a variableC _p , depending on the plage brightness. A sgnificant increase ofC _p from 0.015 to 0.025 is found for plage areas varying from a few to approx. 6 · 10³ millionths hemispheres.Combining the facular irradiance excess with sunspot deficits (as determined for the same period by Steinegger et al. 1990) yields good aggrement with the irradiance variations measured by ACRIM I, using a center-to-limb variation ofC _p according to Chapman and Meyer (1986). The ratio of facular excess to sunspot deficit (integrated over solid angle 2) decreases from values of 1.5 to 2 for regions with sunspot areas below 100 millionths hemispheres to 0.2 for sunspots of areas > 1000 millionths hemispheres,     

On the relation between the solar activity cycle and the solar tidal force induced by the planets

The cross-correlation coefficient (t) of the solar tidal force induced by the planets f(x + t) with the sunspot number g(x) during a period of 44 years is about -0.7 when t is about -2 years. This fact will be useful for predicting solar activity. The solar tidal force was calculated from 1928 to 1971 for every degree on the equatorial plane and every time every planet moves one degree. As the solar tidal force, we used the moving annual average by months of the square of the vertical tidal force on the sun, and as the sunspot number we used the Zürich mean annual sunspot number.     

Anisotropic solar cosmic ray propagation in an inhomogeneous medium,II

The author's model for anisotropic solar cosmic ray propagation gives 2 coupled, partial differential equations for the intensity and anisotropy of solar cosmic rays propagating with finite speed V in an inhomogeneous medium. The model is used to study the effect of the solar shell on solar cosmic ray propagation. It predicts an exponential decay, regardless of the observer's position. It predicts that when the observer is near the center of the shell, t _D/t ₀ 20 to 30, (t _D= decay time, t ₀ = onset time) and A _m(anisotropy) 15%, if t _m/t ₀ 3 to 5 (t _m= time of maximum), consistent with observations of relativistic particles on Feb. 23, 1956. When the observer is between the shell and the sun, the model predicts that oscillations might be observed near maximum intensity. When the observer moves away from the sun and the shell, the propagation is diffusive, but there is an increasingly large persistent anisotropy which serves as a measure of the width of the shell.     

Nature of variation of Antarctic O3 depletion and its correlation with solar UV radiation

The purpose of this paper is to study the nature of variation of O₃ concentration of Antarctic Survey Stations and its correlation with solar ultraviolet radiation. Solar UV data for the period November 1978 to October 1984 are taken from Solar Geophysical Data Book. In absence of solar UV data for long period, a calibration curve between solar UV radiation and solar flare number (S.F.NO.) is drawn. (A straight line is obtained and correlation coefficient between two variables is 80%). The equation of straight line from least square principle becomes, UV flux = 0.2672 + 2.7578 × 10^?5 × S.F.NO. From this equation UV flux values for long period are calculated from known values of solar flare numbers. O₃ concentration of two Antarctic Survey Stations, Halley Bay (76? S, 27? W) and McMurdo (78? S, 166? E) are considered for analysis and following important results are obtained:

1. Yearly variations of O₃ concentrations and UV radiations are mainly controlled by their October concentrations.
2. Correlation coefficient between O₃ concentration and UV radiation is 62% for the month of October. For the other months it is poor.
3. It is concluded that dramatic decrease of O₃ concentration at Antarctica is independent of solar UV radiation and chemical processes are responsible for special depletion of O₃.

     

Polarization of intrinsic radiation of tidally distorted stars with electron-scattering atmospheres

Linear polarization of radiation emitted by tidally distorted stars as a function of the binary system phase is computed, taking into account true absorption and the scattering of light on free and bound electrons within hot stellar atmospheres. Computations are made both for the linear distribution of true sources across the atmospheres and for radiative-stable model atmospheres presented by Kurcuzet al. (1974) and Kurucz (1979). Polarization variability was investigated as a function of wavelength . In a number of cases, polarization variability was found to be at an observable level. The most marked variability was expected in the ultraviolet range adjacent to the boundaries of the spectral series for H and He. Near the Lyman limit of approximately =912 Å for stars with an effective temperatureT _eff35 000 K and near the ionization boundary for HeII 226 Å for stars withT _eff>35 000 K, the amplitude of polarization variability is greater than in the case of pure electron atmospheres, sometimes reaching the level of 0.5–1%. For fairly long waves where the limb-darkening coefficient falls below a certain critical valueu _cr0.5, the plane of polarization is found to be turned by 90° as compared to the case of a pure electron atmosphere. For limb-darkening coefficients far from the value ofu _cr; the form of the polarization phase curves, as well as dependence on the parameters of a binary system, remain approximately the same as those in the case of pure electron scattering.     

Latitude dependence of auroral frequency in relation to solar — Terrestrial and interplanetary parameters

The auroral frequency of occurrences (A) for the 20th solar cycle and for the geomagnetic latitudes 54–63 N has been investigated in relation to sunspot numbers (R _z), number of flares (F), the solar wind streams derived from the coronal holes (H) and the geomagnetic index (A _p). The relationship between A and the other indices were found to be strongly latitude dependent. At around 57–58 N, a drastic change in this relationship occurs, and an attempt is made qualitatively to evaluate this latitudinal variation.     

The latitude of filament bands at the sunspot minimum and the activity level in the two following 11-year solar cycles

The zonal structure of the distribution of filaments is considered. The mean latitudes of two filament bands are calculated in each solar hemisphere at the minima of the sunspot cycle in the period 1924–1986: middle latitude _{2, m} and low latitude _{1, m} . It is shown that the mean latitude of the filament band _{2, m} at the minimum -m of the cycle correlates, with = 0.94, with the maximum - M sunspot area S(M) and maximum Wolf number W(M) in the succeeding solar cycle M. It is shown that the mean latitude of the low-latitude filament band _{1, m} is linearly dependent on the mean latitude filament band _{2, m + 1} at the succeeding minimum. We found a correlation of the latitude of the low-latitude filament band _{1, m} with the maximum sunspot area in the M + 1 cycle. This enables us to predict the power of two succeeding 11-year solar cycles on the basis of the latitude of filament bands at the minimum of activity, 1985–1986: W(22) - 205 ± 10, W(23) - 210 ± 10. The importance of the relationships found for theory and applied aspects is emphasized. An attempt is made to interpret the relationships physically.     

Transfer of polarization of radiation in a magnetoactive cosmic plasma

The variation in the polarization of radiation propagating in a magnetoactive plasma due to the Faraday effect and differential absorption of ordinary and extraordinary waves is considered. This problem is especially important for polarization studies of the distributed cosmic emission, the radiation of discrete sources, etc. An Equation (1.10) describing the variation of the polarization tensor (1.2) (or (1.2a)) along the direction of propagation is formulated. This equation correctly accounts for the effect of absorption in distinction to the corresponding equation ofKawabata (1964). Equation (1.10), which was obtained for a homogeneous medium, is also true for an inhomogeneous plasma when the geometrical optics approximation is valid for the radiation, the difference between the refractions of ordinary and extraordinary waves is negligible, and inequalities (1.13) are satisfied. In this case, however, the tensorsS _iq ,R _iqlm , andK _iqlm in (1.10) will depend on the coordinate.The case of quasi-longitudinal propagation for circularly polarized ordinary and extraordinary waves is treated in detail by means of (1.10). In this case, which is frequently realized in a cosmic plasma, the equations of transfer written in terms of the Stokes parameters (1.3) take the form of (2.3). Their solution for the case of a uniform plasma is obtained as (2.8)–(2.10). From the analysis of these solutions it follows that, if absorption is neglected, the orientation of the polarization ellipse of the radiation emitted in a layer of thicknessz of a magnetoactive plasma varies according to (2.20), i.e. twice as slowly as the angle of radiation incident on the layer (see (2.15)). In the presence of absorption the polarization ellipse ceases to rotate at a distance from the beginning of the layer (K _{e, 0} is the amplitude of the absorption coefficient of the extraordinary wave). If the Faraday effect is not important (see (2.24)), the angle is close to the ellipse orientation of sources in the plasma ^S . For a strong Faraday effect (2.24a) the angle is displaced relative to ^S by ±/4.The character of polarization of radiation in a plasma changes abruptly if the conditions for negative re-absorption are satisfied (K _{e, o}<0). For strong amplification within a source of dimensionsL and a marked difference in re-absorption of ordinary and extraordinary waves , the radiation emitted by the source belongs entirely to one type of wave; the polarization of this radiation is completely defined by the polarization of waves of this type in a cosmic plasma and does not depend directly on the polarization of radiation emitted by individual electrons of this source. The latter circumstance is of great importance for a treatment of the polarization characteristics of radio emission from cosmic sources with negative re-absorption.Translated from the Russian by Dean F. Smith.     

Dependence of the aurora borealis occurrences on the solar-terrestrial parameters

The recent measurements made by satellites of the aurorae in connection with solar phenomena have increased interest in auroral research. In the present investigation, we establish that, for the 20th solar cycle, the occurrence of visual discrete aurorae A, deduced from a complete set of data, is significantly related to the sunspot numbers R _z, the number of flares F (of importance 1) the solar wind streams derived from solar coronal holes H, and the geomagnetic index A _p.By employing the theory of residues it has been found that A correlates significantly well with the above indices. Accuracies of the order of 75–94% were found for geomagnetic latitudes in the range of 54 –63 N.The A-R _zrelationship was investigated in particular for the period 1897–1951. For this period spectrum analysis of A annual values revealed the existence of 3–4 yr and 8–10 yr periodicities of significances 95% and 99%; respectively.Research Associate.     

OSO-III: Preliminary scientific results

OSO-III was placed into orbit on March 8, 1967; observations were made of the solar extreme ultraviolet, soft and hard solar X-rays, cosmic X-rays and -rays, cosmic ray particles, and the near-earth optical wavelength radiation environment.     

On the long-term secular increase in sunspot number

Correlated with the maximum amplitude (R _max) of the sunspot cycle are the sum (R _sum) and the mean (R _mean) of sunspot number over the duration of the cycle, having a correlation coefficient r equal to 0.925 and 0.960, respectively. Runs tests of R _max, R _sum, and R _mean for cycles 0–21 have probabilities of randomness P equal to 6.3, 1.2, and 9.2%, respectively, indicating a tendency for these solar-cycle related parameters to be nonrandomly distributed. The past record of these parameters can be described using a simple two-parameter secular fit, one parameter being an 8-cycle modulation (the so-called Gleissberg cycle or long period) and the other being a long-term general (linear) increase lasting tens of cycles. For each of the solar-cycle related parameters, the secular fit has an r equal to about 0.7–0.8, implying that about 50–60% of the variation in R _max, R _sum, and R _mean can be accounted for by the variation in the secular fit.Extrapolation of the two-parameter secular fit of R _max to cycle 22 suggests that the present cycle will have an R _max = 74.5 ± 49.0, where the error bar equals ± 2 standard errors; hence, the maximum amplitude for cycle 22 should be lower than about 125 when sunspot number is expressed as an annual average or it should be lower than about 130 when sunspot number is expressed as a smoothed (13-month running mean) average. The long-term general increase in sunspot number appears to have begun about the time of the Maunder minimum, implying that the 314-yr periodicity found in ancient varve data may not be a dominant feature of present sunspot cycles.     

Confirmation of radio absorption by the intergalactic medium

The conventional interpretation of the cosmic background radiation (CBR) as a relic of the Big Bang assumes that the intergalactic medium is highly transparent to radio frequency radiation. Previous work (Lerner, 1990) used the well-known correlation of IR and radio luminosities of spiral galaxies to test this assumption. That analysis, using 237 Shapley-Ames galaxies showed that radio luminosity (L _R ) for a given IR-luminosity, declines with distance, implying that the IGM strongly absorbs radio frequency radiation. That absorption has now been confirmed using a sample of 301 IR-bright galaxies. Using two independent methods of determining the correlation of IR and radio luminosities of spiral and interacting galaxies, the sample shows that for a givenL _IR ,L _R D ^{–0.32±0.04} over a range of distances from 0.7-300 Mpc. (H ₀ = 75 km s^–1 Mpc^–1). The correlation is significant at the 8 or 10^–14 level. Absorption by the IGM is the only reasonable explanation for this correlation. The existence of such absorption implies that neither the isotropy nor the spectrum of the CBR are primordial and that neither is evidence for a Big Bang.     

Bimodality and the Hale cycle

Because of the bimodal distribution of sunspot cycle periods, the Hale cycle (or double sunspot cycle) should show evidence of modulation between 20 and 24 yr, with the Hale cycle having an average length of about 22 yr. Indeed, such a modulation is observed. Comparison of consecutive pairs of cycles strongly suggests that even-numbered cycles are preferentially paired with odd-numbered following cycles. Systematic variations are hinted in both the Hale cycle period and R _sum (the sum of monthly mean sunspot numbers over consecutively paired sunspot cycles). The preferred even-odd cycle pairing suggests that cycles 22 and 23 form a new Hale cycle pair (Hale cycle 12), that cycle 23 will be larger than cycle 22 (in terms of R _M, the maximum smoothed sunspot number, and of the individual cycle value of R _sum), and that the length of Hale cycle 12 will be longer than 22 yr. Because of the strong correlation (r = 0.95) between individual sunspot cycle values of R _sum and R _M, having a good estimate of R _Mfor the present sunspot cycle (22) allows one to predict its R _sum, which further allows an estimation of both R _Mand R _sum for cycle 23 and an estimation of R _sum for Hale cycle 12. Based on Wilson's bivariate fit (r = 0.98), sunspot cycle 22 should have an R _Mequal to 144.4 ± 27.3 (at the 3- level), implying that its R _sum should be about 8600 ± 2200; such values imply that sunspot cycle 23 should have an R _sum of about 10500 ± 2000 and an R _Mof about 175 ± 40, and that Hale cycle 12 should have an R _sum of about 19100 ± 3000.     

Short-Term Periodicities in Solar Indices

The purpose of the present communication is to identify the short-term (few tens of months) periodicities of several solar indices (sunspot number, Caii area and K index, Lyman , 2800 MHz radio emission, coronal green-line index, solar magnetic field). The procedure used was: from the 3-month running means (3m) the 37-month running means (37m) were subtracted, and the factor (3m – 37m) was examined for several parameters. For solar indices, considerable fluctuations were seen during the ± 4 years around sunspot maxima of cycles 18–23, and virtually no fluctuations were seen in the ± 2 years around sunspot minima. The spacings between successive peaks were irregular but common for various solar indices. Assuming that there are stationary periodicities, a spectral analysis was carried out which indicated periodicities of months: 5.1–5.7, 6.2–7.0, 7.6–7.9, 8.9–9.6, 10.4–12.0, 12.8–13.4, 14.5–17.5, 22–25, 28 (QBO), 31–36 (QBO), 41–47 (QTO). The periodicities of 1.3 year (15.6 months) and 1.7 years (20.4 months) often mentioned in the literature were seen neither often nor prominently. Other periodicities occurred more often and more prominently. For the open magnetic flux estimated by Wang, Lean, and Sheeley (2000) and Wang and Sheeley (2002), it was noticed that the variations were radically different at different solar latitudes. The open flux for < 45 solar latitudes had variations very similar (parallel) to the sunspot cycle, while open flux for > 45 solar latitudes had variations anti-parallel to the sunspot cycle. The open fluxes, interplanetary magnetic field and cosmic rays, all showed periodicities similar to those of solar indices. Many peaks (but not all) matched, indicating that the open flux for < 45 solar latitudes was at least partially an adequate carrier of the solar characteristics to the interplanetary space and thence for galactic cosmic ray modulation.     

Predicting the maximum amplitude for the sunspot cycle from the rate of rise in sunspot number

Examined are associational aspects as they relate the maximum amplitude R _M for the sunspot cycle to the rate of rise R _t during the ascending phase, where R _M is the smoothed sunspot number at cycle maximum and R _t is the sum of the monthly mean sunspot numbers for selected 6-month intervals (t) measured from cycle onset. One finds that, prior to about 2 yr into the cycle, the rate of rise is not a reliable predictor for maximum amplitude. Only during the latter half of the ascent do the fits display strong linearity, having a coefficient of correlation r 0.9 and a standard error S _yx 20. During the first four intervals, the expected R _M and the observed R _M were found to differ by no more than 20 units of smoothed sunspot number only 25, 42, 50, and 58 % of the time; during the latter four intervals, they differed by no more than 20 units 67, 83, 92, and 100% of the time.     

Using geomagnetic indices to forecast the next sunspot maximum

The Babcock solar dynamo model and known interactions of the interplanetary magnetic field with the earth's magnetosphere are used to explain the relations found between geomagnetic indices at solar minimum and the sunspot number at the following solar maximum. We augment the work of Kane (1987) by updating his method of analysis, including recent smoothed aa and A_P indices. We predict a smoothed maximum sunspot number of 163±40 to peak in October 1990±9 months for solar cycle 22. This value is close to the Schatten and Sofia (1987) predicted value of 170±25, using more direct solar indicators.Now at Dept. of Astronomy, Univ. of Washington     

Spatial density fluctuations in the radiation era of the Universe

It is shown that in the radiation era of the Universe spatial temperature fluctuations (T/T)<10^–5 in the cosmic plasma lead to huge changes of the density up to (/)10⁴. This effect results from the fact that the cosmic plasma in the radiation era can be considered as a general relativistic Boltzmann gas which is found in the very vincinity of equilibrium.