Accounting for velocity jitter in planet search surveys

The role of radial velocity (RV) jitter in extrasolar planet search surveys is discussed. Based on the maximum-likelihood principle, improved statistical algorithms for RV fitting and period search are developed. These algorithms incorporate a built-in jitter determination, so that resulting estimations of planetary parameters account for this jitter automatically. This approach is applied to RV data for several extrasolar planetary systems. It is shown that many RV planet search surveys suffer from periodic systematic errors which increase effective RV jitter and can lead to erroneous conclusions. For instance, the planet candidate HD 74156 d may be a false detection made due to annual systematic errors.     

On the potential of transit surveys in star clusters: impact of correlated noise and radial velocity follow-up

We present an extension of the formalism recently proposed by Pepper and Gaudi to evaluate the yield of transit surveys in homogeneous stellar systems, incorporating the impact of correlated noise on transit time-scales on the detectability of transits, and simultaneously incorporating the magnitude limits imposed by the need for radial velocity (RV) follow-up of transit candidates. New expressions are derived for the different contributions to the noise budget on transit time-scales and the least-squares detection statistic for box-shaped transits, and their behaviour as a function of stellar mass is re-examined. Correlated noise that is constant with apparent stellar magnitude implies a steep decrease in detection probability at the high -mass end which, when considered jointly with the RV requirements, can severely limit the potential of otherwise promising surveys in star clusters. However, we find that small-aperture, wide-field surveys may detect hot Neptunes whose RV signal can be measured with present-day instrumentation in very nearby (<100 pc) clusters.     

A metric and optimization scheme for microlens planet searches

OGLE III and MOA-II are discovering 600–1000 Galactic bulge microlens events each year. This stretches the resources available for intensive follow-up monitoring of the light curves in search of anomalies caused by planets near the lens stars. We advocate optimizing microlens planet searches by using an automatic prioritization algorithm based on the planet detection zone area probed by each new data point. This optimization scheme takes account of the telescope and detector characteristics, observing overheads, sky conditions and the time available for observing on each night. The predicted brightness and magnification of each microlens target are estimated by fitting to available data points. The optimization scheme then yields a decision on which targets to observe and which to skip, and a recommended exposure time for each target, designed to maximize the planet detection capability of the observations. The optimal strategy maximizes detection of planet anomalies, and this must be coupled with rapid data reduction to trigger continuous follow-up of anomalies that are thereby found. A web interface makes the scheme available for use by human or robotic observers at any telescope. We also outline a possible self-organizing scheme that may be suitable for coordination of microlens observations by a heterogeneous telescope network.     

Simulations for multi-object spectrograph planet surveys

Radial velocity surveys for extrasolar planets generally require substantial amounts of large telescope time in order to monitor a sufficient number of stars. Two of the aspects which can limit such surveys are the single-object capabilities of the spectrograph, and an inefficient observing strategy for a given observing window. In addition, the detection rate of extrasolar planets using the radial velocity method has thus far been relatively linear with time. With the development of various multi-object Doppler survey instruments, there is growing potential to dramatically increase the detection rate using the Doppler method. Several of these instruments have already begun usage in large-scale surveys for extrasolar planets, such as Fibre Large Array Multi Element Spectrograph (FLAMES) on the Very Large Telescope (VLT) and Keck Exoplanet Tracker (ET) on the Sloan 2.5-m wide-field telescope.
In order to plan an effective observing strategy for such a program, one must examine the expected results based on a given observing window and target selection. We present simulations of the expected results from a generic multi-object survey based on calculated noise models and sensitivity for the instrument and the known distribution of exoplanetary system parameters. We have developed code for automatically sifting and fitting the planet candidates produced by the survey to allow for fast follow-up observations to be conducted. The techniques presented here may be applied to a wide range of multi-object planet surveys.     

A trend filtering algorithm for wide-field variability surveys

We show that various systematics related to certain instrumental effects and data reduction anomalies in wide-field variability surveys can be efficiently corrected by a trend filtering algorithm (TFA) applied to the photometric time-series produced by standard data pipelines. Statistical tests, performed on the data base of the HAT Network project, show that by the application of this filtering method the cumulative detection probability of periodic transits increases by up to 0.4 for variables brighter than 11 mag, with a trend of increasing efficiency toward brighter magnitudes. We also show that the TFA can be used for the reconstruction of periodic signals by iteratively filtering out systematic distortions.     

exofit: orbital parameters of extrasolar planets from radial velocities

Retrieval of orbital parameters of extrasolar planets poses considerable statistical challenges. Due to sparse sampling, measurement errors, parameters degeneracy and modelling limitations, there are no unique values of basic parameters, such as period and eccentricity. Here, we estimate the orbital parameters from radial velocity data in a Bayesian framework by utilizing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations with the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. We follow a methodology recently proposed by Gregory and Ford. Our implementation of MCMC is based on the object-oriented approach outlined by Graves. We make our resulting code, exofit , publicly available with this paper. It can search for either one or two planets as illustrated on mock data. As an example we re-analysed the orbital solution of companions to HD 187085 and HD 159868 from the published radial velocity data. We confirm the degeneracy reported for orbital parameters of the companion to HD 187085, and show that a low-eccentricity orbit is more probable for this planet. For HD 159868, we obtained slightly different orbital solution and a relatively high 'noise' factor indicating the presence of an unaccounted signal in the radial velocity data. exofit is designed in such a way that it can be extended for a variety of probability models, including different Bayesian priors.     

Reflected light from 3D exoplanetary atmospheres and simulation of HD 209458b

We present radiation transfer models that demonstrate that reflected light levels from 3D exoplanetary atmospheres can be more than 50 per cent lower than those predicted by models of homogeneous or smooth atmospheres. Compared to smooth models, 3D atmospheres enable starlight to penetrate to larger depths resulting in a decreased probability for the photons to scatter back out of the atmosphere before being absorbed. The increased depth of penetration of starlight in a 3D medium is a well-known result from theoretical studies of molecular clouds and planetary atmospheres. For the first time we study the reflectivity of 3D atmospheres as a possible explanation for the apparent low geometric albedos inferred for extrasolar planetary atmospheres. Our models indicate that 3D atmospheric structure may be an important contributing factor to the non-detections of scattered light from exoplanetary atmospheres. We investigate the self-shadowing radiation transfer effects of patchy cloud cover in 3D scattered light simulations of the atmosphere of HD 209458b. We find that, for a generic planet, geometric albedos can be as high as 0.45 in some limited situations, but that in general the geometric albedo is much lower. We conclude with some explanations on why extrasolar planets are likely dark at optical wavelengths.     

ARTEMiS (Automated Robotic Terrestrial Exoplanet Microlensing Search): A possible expert‐system based cooperative effort to hunt for planets of Earth mass and below

The technique of gravitational microlensing is currently unique in its ability to provide a sample of terrestrial exoplanets around both Galactic disk and bulge stars, allowing to measure their abundance and determine their distribution with respect to mass and orbital separation. Thus, valuable information for testing models of planet formation and orbital migration is gathered, constituting an important piece in the puzzle for the existence of life forms throughout the Universe. In order to achieve these goals in reasonable time, a well‐coordinated effort involving a network of either 2m or 4×1m telescopes at each site is required. It could lead to the first detection of an Earth‐mass planet outside the Solar system, and even planets less massive than Earth could be discovered. From April 2008, ARTEMiS (Automated Robotic Terrestrial Exoplanet Microlensing Search) is planned to provide a platform for a three‐step strategy of survey, follow‐up, and anomaly monitoring. As an expert system embedded in eSTAR (e‐Science Telescopes for Astronomical Research), ARTEMiS will give advice for follow‐up based on a priority algorithm that selects targets to be observed in order to maximize the expected number of planet detections, and will also alert on deviations from ordinary microlensing light curves by means of the SIGNALMEN anomaly detector. While the use of the VOEvent (Virtual Observatory Event) protocol allows a direct interaction with the telescopes that are part of the HTN (Heterogeneous Telescope Networks) consortium, additional interfaces provide means of communication with all existing microlensing campaigns that rely on human observers. The success of discovering a planet by microlensing critically depends on the availability of a telescope in a suitable location at the right time, which can mean within 10 min. To encourage follow‐up observations, microlensing campaigns are therefore releasing photometric data in real time. On ongoing planetary anomalies, world‐wide efforts are being undertaken to make sure that sufficient data are obtained, since there is no second chance. Real‐time modelling offers the opportunity of live discovery of extra‐solar planets, thereby providing “Science live to your home”. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)