Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Asian Forests Through an Influence on Phenology

Changes in plant phenology will be one of the earliest responses to rapid global climate change and could potentially have serious consequences both for plants and for animals that depend on periodically available plant resources. Phenological patterns are most diverse and least understood in the tropics. In those parts of tropical Asia where low temperature or drought impose a seasonal rest period, regular annual cycles of growth and reproduction predominate at the individual, population, and community level. In aseasonal areas, individuals and populations show a range of sub- to supra-annual periodicities, with an overall supra-annual reproductive periodicity at the community level. There is no evidence for photoperiod control of phenology in the Asian tropics, and seasonal changes in temperature are a likely factor only near the northern margins. An opportunistic response to water availability is the simplest explanation for most observed patterns where water is seasonally limiting, while the great diversity of phenological patterns in the aseasonal tropics suggests an equal diversity of controls. The robustness of current phenological patterns to high interannual and spatial variability suggests that most plant species will not be seriously affected by the phenological consequences alone of climate change. However, some individual plant species may suffer, and the consequences of changes in plant phenology for flower- and fruit-dependent animals in fragmented forests could be serious.     

干旱和复水对羊草碳氮分配的影响

植物的碳氮营养及其相互关系是最重要的基本生物过程之一,阶段性干旱对植物碳氮分配的影响研究甚少。实验以中国北方草原的典型植物羊草为材料,研究不同干旱持续期复水对羊草碳氮含量、分配及其相互关系的影响。结果表明:短期和中期干旱使植株生物量、氮素水平和单株总氮量增加,但长期干旱使之降低。水分处理对碳含量的影响不显著。干旱后复水降低了各器官特别是绿叶的碳氮比。中度持续干旱的氮素利用率(NUE)最高、短期干旱最低。羊草各器官氮素绝对量占整株的百分比从大到小依次为:绿叶、根茎、根、枯叶和茎鞘,其中叶片的氮素总量占植株的一半以上;随着干旱持续期的增加,氮素对根部的投资亦加大。羊草受到适当干旱驯化后复水引发的超补偿作用可促进羊草植株生长、提高氮素水平,并在一定程度上通过碳氮分配的调节作用来适应于阶段性的干旱胁迫。     

气候变化和水的最新科学认知

政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）于2008年4月8日正式通过了"气候变化和水"技术报告。该报告建立在IPCC 3个工作组第四次评估报告的基础上,客观、全面而审慎地评估了与水有关的气候变化以及对水的过去、现在和未来的认知。最重要的进展是：过去几十年观测到全球变暖已经与大尺度水文循环的大规模变化联系在一起;气候模型对21世纪的模拟结果一致显示出降水在高纬和部分热带地区将增加,而在部分亚热带和中低纬地区将减少的结果;预计到21世纪中期,河流年平均径流和水量可能会因为高纬和部分湿润热带地区的气候变化而增加,而在中低纬和干旱热带将可能减少;许多地方降水强度和变率的增加将使洪旱危险性上升;预计冰雪储藏的水的补给将在本世纪减少;预计较高的水温和极端变化,包括洪旱等,将影响水质并加剧水污染;对全球而言,气候变化对淡水系统负面影响将超过收益;预计由于气候变化导致的水量-水质变化将影响食物的产量、稳定性、流通和利用;气候变化影响现有水的基础设施的功能和运行,包括水电、防洪、排水、灌溉系统,同时影响到水的管理;目前的水管理措施不足以应对气候变化的影响;气候变化挑战"过去水文上的经验能得到未来的情况"的传统说法;为保障平水和干旱情况所设计的适应选择,必须综合需水和供水双方的战略;减缓措施可以降低升温对全球水资源的影响程度,进而减低适应的需求;水资源管理明显地影响到很多其他政策领域。     

Herbivory-Mediated Responses of Selected Boreal Forests to Climatic Change

Recent efforts to project vegetationresponses to climatic warming have emphasized thetight linkages between climate and vegetationdistribution. Here we provide several examplesindicating that the direct effects of climatic warmingon boreal vegetation can be qualitatively differentthan the indirect effects mediated by climaticresponses of herbivores. These herbivore-mediatedvegetation responses to climatic warming will likelyvary regionally. In southern Fennoscandia, we projectthat the climatically induced changes in animalpopulations should enhance the density of spruce atthe expense of pine and broadleafed trees. In northernFennoscandia we project reduced herbivory onbroadleafed trees and increased herbivory on pine,leading to an increase in broadleafed trees and spruceand a reduction in pine. Climatic warming in interiorAlaska may reduce herbivory on broadleafed trees andincrease herbivory on evergreen spruce, thusreinforcing the impact of increased fire frequency.     

Impact of non-outbreak insect damage on vegetation in northern Europe will be greater than expected during a changing climate

Background insect herbivory, in addition to insect outbreaks, can have an important long term influence on the performance of tree species. Since a projected warmer climate may favour insect herbivores, we use a dynamic ecosystem model to investigate the impacts of background herbivory on vegetation growth and productivity, as well as distribution and associated changes in terrestrial ecosystems of northern Europe. We used the GUESS ecosystem modelling framework and a simple linear model for including the leaf area loss of Betula pubescens in relation to mean July temperature. We tested the sensitivity of the responses of the simulated ecosystems to different, but realistic, degrees of insect damage. Predicted temperature increases are likely to enhance the potential insect impacts on vegetation. The impacts are strongest in the eastern areas, where potential insect damage to B. pubescens can increase by 4–5%. The increase in insect damage to B. pubescens results in a reduction of total birch leaf area (LAI), total birch biomass and birch productivity (Net Primary Production). This effect is stronger than the insect damage to leaf area alone would suggest, due to its second order effect on the competition between tree species. The model's demonstration that background herbivory may cause changes in vegetation structure suggests that insect damage, generally neglected by vegetation models, can change predictions of future forest composition. Carbon fluxes and albedo are only slightly influenced by background insect herbivory, indicating that background insect damage is of minor importance for estimating the feedback of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.     

Global change strategy options in the extensive agriculture regions of the world

The extensive agricultural regions contain relatively little of the world's carbon and their main influence on atmospheric composition is via biomass burning in the more humid regions of the tropics, and methane from cattle production. In terms of direct feedback influence on climate their effects are via opaqueness of the atmosphere (dust and aerosols) and the albedo of the surface. Change in these regions is brought about by the separate and (especially) interactive effects of climate, fire and herbivory. Likely changes in productivity, vegetation structure and soil erosion will lead to some changes in stored carbon and feedback effects. Possible increased cultivation of marginal areas is an important unknown.Management options include livestock numbers, type and distribution, fire regimes, woody vegetation clearing, subsistence cropping and rehabilitation measures. Response strategies in line with IPCC goals include reducing stocking rates, halting clearing of woody plants, reducing fire frequencies and (where cropping is practised) use of zero-tillage. A modelling approach is suggested as a basis for examining which responses are appropriate, given that most managers in these regions have very few options and the regions contribute relatively little to the control of the world's climate.     

影响青藏高原植被生理过程与大气CO2浓度及气候变化的相互作用

利用一陆面过程模式,初步模拟研究了青藏高原夏季风盛行期植被生理过程与大气CO2浓度及气候变化的相互作用。结果表明,气候以及大气CO2浓度变化对青藏高原地区的植被生理过程有较明显的影响,高温、高温和高CO2浓度将加强高原植被的光合作用和呼吸作用,有利于植被生长。高原植被也可通过生理过程,产生净CO2呼收,降低大气CO2含量,起到调整温室效应的作用,从而影响全球气候变化;当气温升高、大气CO2增加时,这种作用更加有效。青藏高原地区大气CO2浓度加倍,对高原地区气候的直接影响不明显。植被的存在也会影响区域气候变化,并可通过改变高原热源,进而影响高原及其周边地区气候变化。文中还归纳出了植被生理与气候相互作用的简单概念模型。     

The CLIVAR C20C project: selected twentieth century climate events

We use a simple methodology to test whether a set of atmospheric climate models with prescribed radiative forcings and ocean surface conditions can reproduce twentieth century climate variability. Globally, rapid land surface warming since the 1970s is reproduced by some models but others warm too slowly. In the tropics, air-sea coupling allows models to reproduce the Southern Oscillation but its strength varies between models. We find a strong relationship between the Southern Oscillation in global temperature and the rate of global warming, which could in principle be used to identify models with realistic climate sensitivity. This relationship and a weak response to ENSO suggests weak sensitivity to changes in sea surface temperature in some of the models used here. In the tropics, most models reproduce part of the observed Sahel drought. In the extratropics, models do not reproduce the observed increase in the North Atlantic Oscillation in response to forcings, through internal variability, or as a combination of both.     

Ungulate herbivory modifies the effects of climate change on mountain forests

Recent temperature observations suggest a general warming trend that may be causing the range of tree species to shift to higher latitudes and altitudes. Since biotic interactions such as herbivory can change tree species composition, it is important to understand their contribution to vegetation changes triggered by climate change. To investigate the response of forests to climate change and herbivory by wild ungulates, we used the forest gap model ForClim v2.9.6 and simulated forest development in three climatically different valleys in the Swiss Alps. We used altitudinal transects on contrasting slopes covering a wide range of forest types from the cold (upper) to the dry (lower) treeline. This allowed us to investigate (1) altitudinal range shifts in response to climate change, (2) the consequences for tree species composition, and (3) the combined effect of climate change and ungulate herbivory. We found that ungulate herbivory changed species composition and that both basal area and stem numbers decreased with increasing herbivory intensity. Tree species responded differently to the change in climate, and their ranges did not change concurrently, thus causing a succession to new stand types. While climate change partially compensated for the reductions in basal area caused by ungulate herbivory, the combined effect of these two agents on the mix of the dominant species and forest type was non-compensatory, as browsing selectively excluded species from establishing or reaching dominance and altered competition patterns, particularly for light. We conclude that there is an urgent need for adaptive forest management strategies that address the joint effects of climate change and ungulate herbivory.     

Modeling the eco-hydrologic response of a Mediterranean type ecosystem to the combined impacts of projected climate change and altered fire frequencies

Global Climate Models (GCMs) project moderate warming along with increases in atmospheric CO₂ for California Mediterranean type ecosystems (MTEs). In water-limited ecosystems, vegetation acts as an important control on streamflow and responds to soil moisture availability. Fires are also key disturbances in semi-arid environments, and few studies have explored the potential interactions among changes in climate, vegetation dynamics, hydrology, elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and fire. We model ecosystem productivity, evapotranspiration, and summer streamflow under a range of temperature and precipitation scenarios using RHESSys, a spatially distributed model of carbon–water interactions. We examine the direct impacts of temperature and precipitation on vegetation productivity and impacts associated with higher water-use efficiency under elevated atmospheric CO2. Results suggest that for most climate scenarios, biomass in chaparral-dominated systems is likely to increase, leading to reductions in summer streamflow. However, within the range of GCM predictions, there are some scenarios in which vegetation may decrease, leading to higher summer streamflows. Changes due to increases in fire frequency will also impact summer streamflow but these will be small relative to changes due to vegetation productivity. Results suggest that monitoring vegetation responses to a changing climate should be a focus of climate change assessment for California MTEs.     

Quantifying contributions of climate feedbacks to tropospheric warming in the NCAR CCSM3.0

In this study, a coupled atmosphere-surface “climate feedback-response analysis method” (CFRAM) was applied to the slab ocean model version of the NCAR CCSM3.0 to understand the tropospheric warming due to a doubling of CO₂ concentration through quantifying the contributions of each climate feedback process. It is shown that the tropospheric warming displays distinct meridional and vertical patterns that are in a good agreement with the multi-model mean projection from the IPCC AR4. In the tropics, the warming in the upper troposphere is stronger than in the lower troposphere, leading to a decrease in temperature lapse rate, whereas in high latitudes the opposite it true. In terms of meridional contrast, the lower tropospheric warming in the tropics is weaker than that in high latitudes, resulting in a weakened meridional temperature gradient. In the upper troposphere the meridional temperature gradient is enhanced due to much stronger warming in the tropics than in high latitudes. Using the CFRAM method, we analyzed both radiative feedbacks, which have been emphasized in previous climate feedback analysis, and non-radiative feedbacks. It is shown that non-radiative (radiative) feedbacks are the major contributors to the temperature lapse rate decrease (increase) in the tropical (polar) region. Atmospheric convection is the leading contributor to temperature lapse rate decrease in the tropics. The cloud feedback also has non-negligible contributions. In the polar region, water vapor feedback is the main contributor to the temperature lapse rate increase, followed by albedo feedback and CO₂ forcing. The decrease of meridional temperature gradient in the lower troposphere is mainly due to strong cooling from convection and cloud feedback in the tropics and the strong warming from albedo feedback in the polar region. The strengthening of meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere can be attributed to the warming associated with convection and cloud feedback in the tropics. Since convection is the leading contributor to the warming differences between tropical lower and upper troposphere, and between the tropical and polar regions, this study indicates that tropical convection plays a critical role in determining the climate sensitivity. In addition, the CFRAM analysis shows that convective process and water vapor feedback are the two major contributors to the tropical upper troposphere temperature change, indicating that the excessive upper tropospheric warming in the IPCC AR4 models may be due to overestimated warming from convective process or underestimated cooling due to water vapor feedback.     

两种气候变化情景下中国未来的粮食供给

全球温室气体排放导致的全球温度的上升一直是国际社会关注的重点问题之一。利用IPCC（政府间气候变化专门委员会）SRES（排放情景特别报告）的A2（中-高）和B2（中-低）温室气体排放情景，结合区域气候模式PRECIS和CERES作物模型模拟和分析了未来不同的温室气体排放情景下，中国未来2020年、2050年和2080年各个时段粮食的供需情景，并结合未来社会经济的发展分析了气候变化对未来粮食供求的影响，探讨了不同的气候变化程度对未来中国粮食供应的影响。结果表明：如果不考虑CO2的肥效作用，未来我国三种主要粮食作物（小麦、水稻和玉米）均以减产为主，灌溉可以部分地减少减产幅度，如果单考虑CO2的肥效作用，三种作物的产量变化以增产为主。若保持959／6的粮食自给率，人口按照SRESA2和B2情景增长，到2030年的技术进步可使粮食年单产递增0．79／6以上，维持目前的种植比例和种植面积，B2情景下，气候变化对我国的粮食安全问题将不会构成威胁，而A2情景下，气候变化将会对我国可持续发展的粮食安全造成威胁。     

Losses of birch foliage due to insect herbivory along geographical gradients in Europe: a climate-driven pattern?

The study reports large-scale geographical variation in foliar damage of Betula pubescens and B. pendula by leaf-chewing and leaf-mining insects in Northern and Central Europe. The data were obtained in late summer of 2004 from 90 study sites located along several latitudinal and longitudinal gradients up to 1275 km in length; repeatability of a pattern detected was checked in 2005. Foliar damage in B. pubescens due to endemic herbivory increased in Fennoscandia from 1–2% at 70°N to 5–7% at 60°N; this pattern was best explained by mean July temperatures. Higher foliar losses in southern Fennoscandia were mostly due to an increase in proportion of damaged leaves, while an average consumption per damaged leaf increased only slightly. Foliar damage in B. pendula in Fennoscandia followed the same pattern as described for B. pubescens, although the overall loss of leaf area was only ca. 70% of that in B. pubescens. In contrast, there was no geographical or climatic pattern in damage of B. pendula by insect herbivores in Central Europe; average foliar losses were around 5% between 48°N and 60°N. These data suggest that damage of northern birch forests by leaf-chewing and leaf-mining insects will at least double with expected climatic warming, while in more southern regions the effects of climate change on birch foliar losses due to insect herbivory may be small or even negligible.     

Numerical Simulation of CO2 Doubling Impacts on Regional Climate in Northwest China

A numerical study on CO2 doubling effects upon temperature and precipitation in NW China is conducted using an improved regional climate model, with the modeling data from a global climate model (Australian CSIRO R21L9) as the background. Results suggest that the doubling would lead to the rise of surface temperature in the project region, with the maximum occurring in southern Xinjiang Basin and eastern Qilian Mountains in contrast to a relatively smaller increase in northern Xinjiang and southern Shaanxi Provinces. On a seasonal basis the winter temperature warming is most pronounced while the autumn shows a relatively less signi cant rising trend. The study region experiences the greatest warming compared with other parts of the country. With CO2 content doubling, rainfall change varies from place to place in this region, with rainfall increase in the west, particularly in northern Xinjiang, in the vicinity of the Tianshan area, southwestern Qinghai, and Hexi area (west of the Yellow River of Gansu), as opposed to the eastern portion of NW China, where precipitation decreases. If CO2 concentration is doubled, most of the study region would receive more rainfall in spring, implying that spring drought would be alleviated while its eastern part would see varying-degree decreased precipitation in the other three seasons, especially in summer, suggesting that drought there would be intensified in summer and autumn, thereby exerting major influence on rain-fed agriculture there.     

区域气候模式对温室效应引起的中国地区气候变化的数值模拟

利用基于 ＲｅｇＣＭ２的区域气候模式并单向嵌套澳大利亚 ＣＳＩＲＯ Ｒ２１Ｌ９全球海－气耦合模式，进行了温室气体二氧化碳浓度倍增对中国气候变化影响的数值试验研究。控制试验结果表明：区域模式由于具有较高的分辨率，因而对中国区域地面气温和降水的模拟效果较全球模式有了较大提高；模式对 ２×ＣＯ２敏感性试验结果表明了在 ＣＯ２浓度倍增情况下，由于温室效应，中国区域的地面气温将有明显升高，降水也将呈增加趋势。     

CO2浓度与土壤水分胁迫对红松和云杉苗木影响的试验研究

全球气候变化对植物影响研究的主要内容是由于大气中CO2 浓度升高导致的气温升高和土壤干旱化对植物的影响。文中利用人工气候室试验研究了高CO2 浓度和土壤水分胁迫对红松和云杉的影响 ,结果表明 :CO2 浓度升高使红松和云杉生长量的增长率提高 ,土壤水分胁迫使树木生长量的增长率下降 ,且CO2 浓度升高的正效应要小于土壤水分胁迫的负效应。CO2 浓度升高使树木叶水势增大 ,土壤水分胁迫使树木叶水势减小 ,这从植物生理的角度说明了CO2 浓度变化和土壤水分胁迫对树木的影响机理 ,且在轻度干旱的情况下 ,高CO2 浓度使树木叶水势增大 ,但随着土壤干旱程度的加重 ,树木的叶水势逐渐减小。同时 ,从实验结果还可以看出 ,虽然大气中CO2 浓度和土壤湿度变化对苗木的影响显著存在 ,但与农作物和牧草等植物相比 ,这种影响仍要小得多。     

IPCC AR6报告解读：地下水

地下水已成为满足全球农业生产和生活用水需求的重要来源,也是实现联合国2030年可持续发展议程的关键资源。地下水的数量和质量会直接或间接地受到气候变化的影响。IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第二工作组报告对全球和区域历史时期及未来地下水变化趋势进行了评估。报告指出：(1)自21世纪初以来,由于地下水灌溉用水量增加,全球许多国家和地区地下水储量呈现下降趋势。(2)在气候变化背景下,地下水开采量将持续增加,包括全球主要含水层中不可再生的地下水。(3)在热带和半干旱地区,气候变化引起强降水发生频率加快,导致地下水补给量呈增加趋势;在高寒地区,受气候变化影响地下水主要补给期从春季向冬季演变,由于融雪周期和融雪量的减少造成高寒地区春季地下水补给量减少。在地下水退化区域开展渐进式生态修复,是应对气候变化和保障水安全的重要措施。     

陆面模式的植物叶光合生理的数值模拟试验及分析

根据C3、C4植物生态生理过程中植物叶水平的光合同化机制过程和植物叶片尺度的光合作用限制函数方程。采用单叶光合作用模式进行C3、C4植物光合模拟试验,模拟不同环境影响因子对C3、C4植物光合作用的影响。结果表明,植物叶尺度光合作用模型能较好地模拟不同环境影响因子下的C3、C4植物光合作用状况。本文依据C3、C4植物光合生理特性进一步分析植物光合作用的三个限制函数方程在C3、C4植物光合的不同作用,揭示吸收光合有效辐射(PAR)、叶内温度(Tc)和CO2浓度(Ci)的敏感性。结果可用于植被—大气相互作用的能量和碳同化过程的物质交换研究。     

Climate Variability and Change: Past, Present and Future – An Overview

Prior to the 20th century Northern Hemisphere average surface air temperatures have varied in the order of 0.5 ^°C back to AD 1000. Various climate reconstructions indicate that slow cooling took place until the beginning of the 20th century. Subsequently, global-average surface air temperature increased by about 0.6 °C with the 1990s being the warmest decade on record. The pattern of warming has been greatest over mid-latitude northern continents in the latter part of the century. At the same time the frequency of air frosts has decreased over many land areas, and there has been a drying in the tropics and sub-tropics. The late 20th century changes have been attributed to global warming because of increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations due to human activities. Underneath these trends is that of decadal scale variability in the Pacific basin at least induced by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which causes decadal changes in climate averages. On interannnual timescales El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) causes much variability throughout many tropical and subtropical regions and some mid-latitude areas. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) provides climate perturbations over Europe and northern Africa. During the course of the 21st century global-average surface temperatures are very likely to increase by 2 to 4.5 ^°C as greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere increase. At the same time there will be changes in precipitation, and climate extremes such as hot days, heavy rainfall and drought are expected to increase in many areas. The combination of global warming, superimposed on decadal climate variability (IPO) and interannual fluctuations (ENSO, NAO) are expected lead to a century of increasing climate variability and change that will be unprecedented in the history of human settlement. Although the changes of the past and present have stressed food and fibre production at times, the 21st century changes will be extremely challenging to agriculture and forestry.     

温室效应引起的东亚区域气候变化

用中国科学院大气物理研究所的两层大气和二十层大洋环流模式耦合的海气模式进行了控制试验和瞬变响应试验两个长期积分,并用它们的差异来分析大气中二氧化碳含量加倍所引起的东亚区域的气候变化。二氧化碳加倍以后,东亚年平均温度升高,降水增加,土壤湿度也是增加的,但存在着显著的季节性和区域性的差异。因此,又把东亚分成８个区,来详细探讨二氧化碳增加所引起的区域气候变化。选取了３个具有代表性的气候量：温度、降水和土壤湿度。二氧化碳加倍以后,温度的增加和土壤湿度的增加主要出现在冬半年的高纬度,降水增加的最大值也出现在冬半年的高纬度。另外,还初步分析了二氧化碳浓度加倍所引起的温度和降水年际变率的变化