传染病多维度聚集性探测方法

及早发现异常健康事件的苗头是有效进行传染病早期预警的关键.现有的传染病聚集性探测仅限于时间、空间或时空维度,往往容易忽略病例个人情况从其他方面反映的信息,从而造成过度预警.论文结合蚁群聚类算法和Bayesian Gamma-Poisson 模型,提出一种全新的传染病多维度聚类探测技术.研究区麻疹爆发案例证明该技术在继承以往时空聚集性探测技术思想的基础上,考虑了病例的属性信息,能更为灵敏、准确地找出传染病聚集区域.此方法在实际工作中具有潜在的重要应用价值.     

中国手足口病时空分异特征及影响因素

健康中国战略是中国新时期的重大战略之一,手足口病作为全球关注的公共卫生问题,已成为中国影响范围较为广泛和普遍的典型传染性疾病,尤其对婴幼儿健康造成巨大威胁。本文构建健康地理学视角下的传染病研究理论框架,采用集中度和空间分析方法解析中国2008—2017年手足口病发病时空分异特征和变化规律,对18个影响其发病的风险因子进行空间相关和地理探测,揭示手足口病地理分异的主要影响因素和作用机理。结果表明：① 健康地理学视角下的传染病研究理论框架由传染病发病的基本环节、影响因素和分布扩散状态3个子系统构成,各子系统之间及子系统内部相互影响相互作用。② 2008—2017年中国手足口病发病率呈现波动上升、两年为一周期且偶数年份高于奇数年份的发病规律,春末夏初及秋末冬初为发病高峰。③ 2008—2010年手足口病发病率未体现明显的空间集聚特征;2011—2017年发病率存在较强的空间自相关性,热点地区主要集中在广东、广西、海南等地区,且呈现自北向南、自小而分散向大而集中的演变趋势;发病典型地区可以总结为气候湿热区、经济落后且医疗水平低的地区和易集聚感染的人口密集区3种。④ 有12项因素通过了相关分析和地理探测的显著性检验,与手足口病发病率体现正向作用的因素解释力从大到小依次为“气温>年降水量>湿度>气压>人口密度>路网密度>人均GDP”,负向相关关系作用大小依次为“日照时数>风速>AQI指数>海拔>千人床位数”,气温和降水量与其他因子的交互作用最为明显。本文为健康地理学、手足口病病理学、流行病学的相关研究提供实证检验基础,为服务健康中国战略和流行病预防与控制提供重要科学支撑和政策参考。     

COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE AND AGROCHEMICALS IN ALMOLONGA,GUATEMALA*

ABSTRACT. Large amounts of synthetic pesticides are used in Guatemala to increase the production of nontraditional crops. Almolonga, a township in the western highlands, produces vegetables for markets in Mexico and Central America. Almolongueños make intensive use of limited cultivable land and abundant water resources, as well as sizable amounts of synthetic pesticides. Among Almolongueños, congenital malformations, cancer, anemia, and respiratory infections await substantiated links to exposure to pesticides. The prevalence of infectious and parasitic diseases and nutritional deficiencies—the dominant health concerns—may be heightened by excessive use of pesticides. Public-health initiatives involve the rational use of pesticides or their elimination.     

中国城镇化对老年人健康的影响

基于2010年第六次全国人口普查微观数据和夜间灯光数据等,运用多层级logistic回归模型估计中国城镇化水平和速度与老年人自评健康的关联,分析城镇化健康效应在不同老年人群体间的差异,并运用倾向得分匹配方法,控制“自选择”机制对分析结果的干扰。结果表明：1）中国县区城镇化水平和速度与老年人自评健康呈显著正相关关系,居住于城镇化水平中等和城镇化速度较快县区的老年人更可能自评为健康;2）城镇化水平和速度与老年人自评健康的关系在不同受教育程度和户口状态的老年人群体间存在显著差异,城镇化水平和速度对受教育程度较低、持有本地户口老年人健康水平的提升效益更大;3）控制了老年人居住“自选择”的干扰后,县区城镇化水平和速度与老年人自评健康的正向关联依然稳健,表明“自选择偏误”对中国县区城镇化水平和速度与老年人自评健康的关系没有显著的影响。     

区域地理环境因素对宁夏泾源县儿童呼吸系统疾病的影响

选取宁夏泾源县儿童呼吸系统疾病作为研究对象,运用时间序列及空间分析方法分析儿童呼吸系统疾病发病的区域时空分布规律,使用地理探测器方法探究区域环境影响因素。结果表明：温度、降水、相对湿度、风速以及社会经济因素等均会对儿童呼吸系统疾病发病有影响。在时间上,泾源县儿童呼吸系统疾病发病与月平均气温及月降水量之间存在显著负相关性,气温与降水的季节性差异导致泾源县儿童呼吸系统疾病也表现出明显的季节性特征;在空间上,儿童呼吸系统疾病呈现“中部高,南北低”的特点,整体发病率重心向南部偏移。各区域地理环境因素对儿童呼吸系统疾病的影响存在空间差异性,表明地区温度、湿度、风速以及当地社会经济因素等在不同程度上影响了儿童呼吸系统疾病的空间分布。     

我国疾病类型与生态地理环境的关系

我国当前疾病类型具有发达国家与发展中国家的过渡性特点,防治重点将由生物性传染病逐步转移到心血管性疾病和癌症上,同时应对疾病与人类生态系统和地理环境的关系作全面研究。     

An Overview of Spatial Analysis of Emerging Infectious Diseases

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are of increasing global concern, and quantitative geography can play an important role in integrating spatial data describing drivers of disease emergence and building models of EID risk. This article lays out the key issues of EIDs and describes problems and opportunities for integrative quantitative geography to inform on patterns of EIDs. Issues of data quality are highlighted, as are methods of spatial analysis and forms of research communication and visualization as they relate to the study of EIDs. Our review demonstrates that geography is critically needed in EID research, and many of the issues central to understanding and predicting EIDs are inherently of a geographical nature.     

UV-B induced immunomodulation: a health risk

The depletion in stratospheric ozone and changes in life-styles are likely to lead to an increased exposure to sunlight, including the UV-B waveband. Such irradiation may induce immunomodulation and therefore have adverse effects on human health. Alterations in immune responses could affect not only photocarcinogenesis but also resistance to infections, certain allergies and autoimmunity, and vaccination efficacy. In the present study, the risk of increased UV-B exposure has been estimated with respect to the resistance to a bacterial ( Listeria monocytogenes ) and a viral (herpes simplex virus) infection. The data indicate that suberythemal UV-B irradiation can have significant effects on immune responses to certain infectious diseases in human subjects.     

Spatial Relationship between Dwelling Crowding and Selected Causes of Morbidity in Sydney,Australia, 1994–97

The environment in which we live greatly influences our health. One particular factor that has been related to morbidity and mortality is dwelling crowding. A range of mechanisms have been proposed as links between dwelling crowding and disease, including increased exposures to allergens, respiratory irritants and infectious agents in crowded dwellings. While studies of dwelling crowding have been conducted in many locations around the world, this factor has received little attention in Australian health studies. We examine relationships between dwelling crowding and health in Sydney, using three case studies at the local government area (LGA) level within the Sydney Statistical Division. Dwelling and demographic data from the 1996 Australian census are used, along with four socio-economic indexes produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and hospital inpatient data for the period 1 July 1994 to 30 June 1997 as the health indicator. Results suggest that dwelling crowding is a significant factor in certain diseases in Sydney. Asthma hospital separations are not correlated with dwelling crowding, although multiple linear regression analysis produces three models which include crowding and three of the socio-economic indexes as significant variables. Separations for bronchitis and emphysema, and all causes combined, are positively correlated with dwelling crowding. Dwelling crowding is strongly negatively correlated with all but one of the socio-economic indicators.     

The Relationship between Narratives,Wildlife Value Orientations,Attitudes, and Policy Preferences

Overabundance of white-tailed deer is a pervasive problem across the United States. Deer are blamed for increased risk of auto accidents, tick-borne diseases, and overbrowsing of native species. Lethal management techniques, cited as cost-effective and humane, are commonly employed for herd management. However, the approach frequently sparks outrage among various stakeholders who feel killing of animals is unjustified and prefer nonlethal measures. Wildlife managers then face the challenge of communicating with the public to build policy support for lethal management. The Narrative Policy Framework was used to test the effects of differing narratives on public opinion for lethal deer management. Results indicated narratives were influential in shifting attitudes toward and support for a proposed sharpshooting policy even in some cases where respondents were already familiar with the issue and held a previous opinion. This study also supported the utility of the Narrative Policy Framework for examining human dimensions of wildlife issues.     

Modeling of space–time infectious disease spread under conditions of uncertainty

A theoretical model for the spread of infectious diseases in a composite space–time domain is developed. The model has a general form that enables it to account for the basic mechanisms of disease distribution and to incorporate the considerable multisourced uncertainty (caused by physiographic features, disease variability, meteorological conditions, etc.). Starting from the general model formulation regarding the specification of transmission and recovery rates, as well as the population migration dynamics, several subsequent assumptions are introduced that simplify analytical tractability and practical implementation. In particular, linearization involving a deterministic functional representation for the average evolution of the fraction of susceptible individuals allows the formulation of an extended Kalman filter approach for estimation based on the time series observed at a finite set of locations. Different aspects of interest derived from the epidemic space–time model proposed, as well as the performance of the extended Kalman filter procedure, are illustrated through simulations.     

Urban structure and dengue incidence in Puntarenas, Costa Rica

Dengue is currently the most important arboviral disease globally and is usually associated with built environments in tropical areas. Remotely sensed information can facilitate the study of urban mosquito-borne diseases by providing multiple temporal and spatial resolutions appropriate to investigate urban structure and ecological characteristics associated with infectious disease. In this study, coarse, medium and fine resolution satellite imagery (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer and QuickBird respectively) and ground-based data were analyzed for the Greater Puntarenas area, Costa Rica for the years 2002–04. The results showed that the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was generally higher in the localities with lower incidence of dengue fever during 2002, although the correlation was statistically significant only in the dry season (r =−0.40; p = 0.03). Dengue incidence was inversely correlated to built area and directly correlated with tree cover (r = 0.75, p = 0.01). Overall, the significant correlations between dengue incidence and urban structural variables (tree cover and building density) suggest that properties of urban structure may be associated with dengue incidence in tropical urban settings.     

医学地理和环境健康研究的主要领域与进展

通过对近年国内外医学地理和环境健康相关领域的文献检索分析发现,人口健康是当前国际地理学和环境科学研究的核心内容之一,其研究趋势可以归纳为以下几个方面:①重视全球环境变化对人类健康的影响。包括全球大气组成改变(气候变化和臭氧层耗散)对健康的影响、土地利用/土地覆被变化与健康、全球环境变化与传染病、食物生产系统改变与健康和城市化与健康等;②环境健康风险评估领域进一步拓展,除重金属、持久性有机污染物等有毒有害污染物的健康风险外,有关生态、灾害和场地环境污染对健康影响的综合风险评估日益受到重视;③重视社会人文因素与自然因素交互作用对健康的影响,特别是经济发展和城市化过程中收入、产品和服务分配不均造成的卫生不公平对健康的影响;④重视人口老龄化过程的时空差异及其对社会的影响和老龄人口的健康、医疗与养老需求及其可达性研究;⑤地理信息系统和模型等技术被广泛用于疾病和健康的空间数据管理、空间分布规律和空间影响因素分析等领域,并为疾病监测、卫生管理和卫生规划提供了强有力的技术支撑。随着国内在相关领域需求和国际交流的增加,我国近年的相关研究有了较大的发展并得到国际社会的认可,医学地理作为一门学科,在我国人口健康研究中正发挥越来越重...     

论人类健康可持续发展

健康是人类生存和发展的基础,提高人类健康水平是可持续发展的一项重要目标。在可持续发展系统内,人类健康是判断人与自然以及人与人之间关系和谐与否的标尺;人类健康可持续发展是人类杜会可持续发展的基础。人类健康可持续发展要求在满足当代人健康需求的同时又不损害后代人满足其健康需求的能力;在满足本区域人群健康需求的同时又不损害其他区域满足其人群健康需求的能力;在促进生态、经济、社会朝可持续方向发展的同时,自身在生理、心理、社会幸福感方面也获得全面发展。现代文明发展道路应是生产发展、生活富裕、生态良好、生命健康的发展道路。     

地理学在新冠肺炎疫情早期防控中的学术响应及展望

重大公共卫生突发事件如新冠肺炎等对区域人类活动有着深刻影响。作为以空间分析和人地关系为主要方法和对象的地理学,在疫情早期防控中的角色贡献以及未来趋势是迫切需要总结和讨论的重要议题。基于2020年1月20日~2月28日的文本数据,着重总结地理学者以及地理学视角下关于疫情的相关研究,地理学在疫情传播与扩散、区域规划与应急、数据与决策支撑等疫情早期防控方面做出了积极贡献,总结归纳了手机信令、百度迁徙数据等移动定位大数据与人工智能、数据挖掘、语义识别等新一代技术方法在疫情防控中发挥的支撑作用,反思提出未来应该在学科理论和防控措施方面,进一步优化风险预测模型、强化应急规划治理、加强国际合作及多学科数据交叉集成共享,从而提升应对重大公共卫生事件的科学性、主动性和高效性,为后疫情时期经济社会管理与空间治理提供科学支撑和依据。     

山东省长清县长寿村的生态环境特征

本研究对山东省长清县张夏镇长寿村的生态环境进行了考察,采集了内外环境生态系物质样品, 测定了生命元素含量, 并与非长寿村的样品进行了对比研究, 以阐明长寿村的生态环境特征。结果认为, 张夏镇长寿村的生态环境特征主要表现为饮水中含偏硅酸（H2SiO3） 较高, 环境生态系物质中含有较多的抗衰老元素硒（Se）, 地下埋藏有丰富的富含生命元素并用来制作茶具的木鱼石。     

城市化对传染病传播影响的动态模拟 ———以英国南安普顿市为例

在定量化和空间化模拟分析的基础上,探讨了城市化对传染病传播影响的模型框架.该模型框架是通过人口空间分布表面,集成了元胞自动机土地开发模型、人口预测矩阵模型和元胞自动机传染病模型,在动态的,随机的模拟环境中将城市化与传染病传播结合起来.以英国南安普顿市为研究区,对南安普顿市的"郊区化"对传染病传播的影响进行了动态模拟,场景模拟和定量分析.结果表明:4个模拟预测年期(2001年、2011年、2021年和2031年)的平均传染病例数没有太大的变化,"郊区化"对传染病的传播没有太大影响.但是,"郊区化"中的城市局部的家庭迁移和全市的年轻年龄组的迁移可能会通过在同年份减少平均传染病例数而影响传染病的传播.     

西藏昌都横断山区聚落生态环境与生态建设方案

在对聚落生态建设进行理论阐述的基础上，针对昌都横断山区聚落的现实状况，分析其原生环境与次生环境问题，并以左贡县绕金聚落为例，阐述地方病防治、资源合理利用与环境治理相结合的聚落生态建设案例，以此作为昌都横断山区聚落生态建设的示范，为改善该区域生态环境服务。     

国外旅游风险研究综述——基于Web of Science的统计分析

西方国家对风险的研究已较为成熟,但旅游风险作为关注点在2001年“9?11”事件后才逐渐被学界所重视,相关综述较少且多侧重于旅游风险感知,对旅游风险研究整体把握的成果较少。近年来,一些研究已应用文献计量可视化来探索旅游学科的网络结构,但在旅游风险、安全研究领域运用此方法的成果不多。回溯相关概念后,以2001—2018年“Web of Science核心合集”中296篇与国外旅游风险研究高度相关的论文、会议文章、综述为基础,利用科学计量工具CiteSpace为研究工具,对国外旅游风险研究发文数量、期刊分布、知识基础、关键词进行可视化分析。研究发现：①国外旅游风险研究可分为三个阶段,各时期研究区域、对象、主体、热点不断演进;②文献数据库的期刊分布表明,目前国外旅游风险研究涉及多个学科,主力军是旅游类和医学类;③发现了7篇高突现性文献,可分为医学及传染病、风险感知、风险容忍度3类。对深入认识国外旅游风险研究领域的知识基础及其演化关系具有一定价值,同时也能为国内旅游风险研究与实践提供参考。     

2020年湖南省COVID-19疫情的地理学分析

以发病数和发病率为依据,利用ArcGIS 10.3软件和地理探测器,探究湖南省2020-01-21—02-28间COVID-19疫情的时空变化及其影响因素,结果显示：1）疫情演变具有时序阶段性。湖南省COVID-19流行过程可分为扩散期—鼎盛期—衰减期—消亡期4个阶段;所有发病县区中84.47%的首发病例为武汉输入。2）疫情传播具有交通依赖性。确诊患者和高发病率地区集中在铁路干线附近,“地级市早发、主城区多发”特征明显。3）疫情程度具有距离衰减性。邻近武汉的湘中、湘北、湘东北地区发病数和发病率最高。4）疫情分布具有空间集聚性。发病数和发病率集聚水平先增大后保持高位,疫情热点区位于长株潭及岳阳市,冷点区位于湘西州。5）疫情流行具有因子交互性。无风、寒冷、干燥的天气更利于疫情传播;人口密度、路网密度和GDP是影响疫情空间分异的主要因素;自然因子与社会因子的交互作用最强。6）影响因子具有空间异质性。空间距离、人口密度对发病数和发病率两者的影响都有空间异质性,空间距离对湘东北地区疫情的影响最大,人口密度对湘西北、湘北地区疫情的影响最大;人口流动性、卫技人员数仅对发病数的影响有空间异质性,人口流动性的影响程度由北向南递减,卫技人员数的影响程度以长株潭城市群为核心向外围圈层递减。