地下流体中强震源兆、场兆和强震远兆特征及其物理成因

初步分析了乌鲁木齐9、10号泉地下流体中强震源兆、场兆及强震远兆特征。结果表明,中强震源兆具体表现为震前1~ 2年观测点的绝大多数主测项出现同步性高值异常,临震前可能出现转折或反向,震后恢复正常;绝大多数中强震场兆则表现为观测点仅有部分测项出现短期异常变化;而强震场兆则表现为观测点少数映震性能较好的几个测项出现同步性较好的中期前兆异常;强震(群)远兆则主要表现为个别映震较好的测项出现前兆异常。并对震兆形成的原因进行了初步探讨。     

北天山泥火山对2012年6月30日 新源-和静MS6.6地震的响应

2012年6月30日新源-和静M_S6.6地震前后, 北天山泥火山出现了喷溢和地球化学异常变化. 该地震前、 后4天内两次观测了北天山泥火山, 采集了两批温泉和泥火山气体样品, 测定了样品的气体组分和He、 Ne同位素及CH₄、 CO₂的碳同位素组成. 结果表明, 泥火山发生了同震喷发, 气体排放量增加, 温泉和泥火山气体出现了不同程度的微量气体浓度异常, 独山子泥火山震前出现了3He/4He高值异常. 研究结果有利于确定利用泥火山和温泉监测地震活动的方法和指标.      

Implications of ground water chemistry and flow patterns for earthquake studies

Ground water can facilitate earthquake development and respond physically and chemically to tectonism. Thus, an understanding of ground water circulation in seismically active regions is important for earthquake prediction. To investigate the roles of ground water in the development and prediction of earthquakes, geological and hydrogeological monitoring was conducted in a seismogenic area in the Yanhuai Basin, China. This study used isotopic and hydrogeochemical methods to characterize ground water samples from six hot springs and two cold springs. The hydrochemical data and associated geological and geophysical data were used to identify possible relations between ground water circulation and seismically active structural features. The data for delta18O, deltaD, tritium, and 14C indicate ground water from hot springs is of meteoric origin with subsurface residence times of 50 to 30,320 years. The reservoir temperature and circulation depths of the hot ground water are 57 degrees C to 160 degrees C and 1600 to 5000 m, respectively, as estimated by quartz and chalcedony geothermometers and the geothermal gradient. Various possible origins of noble gases dissolved in the ground water also were evaluated, indicating mantle and deep crust sources consistent with tectonically active segments. A hard intercalated stratum, where small to moderate earthquakes frequently originate, is present between a deep (10 to 20 km), high-electrical conductivity layer and the zone of active ground water circulation. The ground water anomalies are closely related to the structural peculiarity of each monitoring point. These results could have implications for ground water and seismic studies in other seismogenic areas.     

Seismo-Geochemical Variations in SW Taiwan: Multi-Parameter Automatic Gas Monitoring Results

Gas variations of many mud volcanoes and hot springs distributed along the tectonic sutures in southwestern Taiwan are considered to be sensitive to the earthquake activity. Therefore, a multi-parameter automatic gas station was built on the bank of one of the largest mud-pools at an active fault zone of southwestern Taiwan, for continuous monitoring of CO₂, CH₄, N₂ and H₂O, the major constituents of its bubbling gases. During the year round monitoring from October 2001 to October 2002, the gas composition, especially, CH₄ and CO₂, of the mud pool showed significant variations. Taking the CO₂/CH₄ ratio as the main indicator, anomalous variations can be recognized from a few days to a few weeks before earthquakes and correlated well with those with a local magnitude >4.0 and local intensities >2. It is concluded that the gas composition in the area is sensitive to the local crustal stress/strain and is worthy to conduct real-time monitoring for the seismo-geochemical precursors.     

2020年新疆于田MS6.4地震温泉水文地球化学异常特征研究

2020年6月26日新疆于田县发生M_S6.4地震, 地震发生前后对震中80 km内的两个温泉在2019年9月至2020年10月的水文地球化学的变化特征进行了研究, 结果表明: ①温泉水的来源为其周围昆仑山的冰川融水, ②克孜勒沙衣温泉补给高程6 km, 水化学类型为Na-HCO₃、 部分平衡水、 温泉循环深度达到1.7 km左右, 其主要气体组分为N₂, 幔源氦占10.6%。 ③乌什开布隆温泉补给高程为3.1 km, Ca·Na-HCO₃·SO₄型, 未成熟水, 可能与浅层冷水发生了混合作用, 循环深度仅达到0.5 km, 该温泉的水化学组分对周围的地震活动有明显的异常响应, 伽师M_S6.4地震前, 区域应力的不断加载使断裂带内裂隙发生明显变化, 从而温泉流体行为发生变化, 使乌什开布隆温泉的离子浓度小幅度上升, 且Cl^-含量在于田M_S6.4地震后16天突增。 因此, 对乌什开布隆温泉及克孜勒沙衣温泉的流体地球化学特征进行连续监测, 可以为未来阿尔金断裂及西昆仑断裂的交会区地震危险性提供有效判断指标。     

滇西实验场水汞同步性异常与中强地震的关系

研究了1992年以来滇西地震预报实验场（24°40’～27°20’N,99°～101°30’E）水汞同步性异常与中强地震的关系。研究结果表明：滇西地震预报实验场水汞同步性异常出现后,滇西实验场区发生M≥5．0地震或滇西实验场邻区（24°～28°N,97°～103°E）发生肘≥6．5强震的概率为75％,平均应震间隔时间为2．7个月,对应效果较好;而且滇西实验场区肘≥5．0地震发生前和滇西实验场邻区M≥6．5强震发生前,滇西实验场水汞同步性异常有很好的反映,概率为83％。     

Variations of radon content in groundwaters and possible correlation with seismic activities in northern Taiwan

Radon (²²²Rn) concentration in geothermal waters and CO₂-rich cold springwaters collected weekly in duplicate samples from four stations in northern Taiwan were measured from July 1980 to December 1983. Seven spike-like radon anomalies (increases of 2 to 3 times the standard deviation above the mean) were observed at three stations. Following every anomaly except one, an earthquake ofM _L above 4.6 occurred within 4 to 51 days, at an epicentral distance 14 to 45 km, and at a focal depth of less than 10 km. The distribution of the earthquakes preceded by radon anomalies is skewed in certain directions from the radon stations; the radon stations seem to be insensitive to earthquakes occurring in the other directions. At the fourth station, near a volcanic area, much gas (mainly CO₂) is discharged from the well, together with hot water. A very high concentration of radon was detected in the discharged gas; therefore trapping of gas in the water can result in anomalously high radon contents. According to limited measurements, the radon concentration in water appears to be undersaturated with respect to that in gas. This suggests that hot water is very susceptible to radon loss, and monitoring of radon in gas is more desirable.     

区域应力作用引起的北天山地区地下流体异常特征分析

大量观测事实表明 ,赋存于地壳深部的流体 (水、气、油 )作为弹性介质 ,对深层地壳应力的分布、变化、转移过程及地震孕育、发生等有着较为灵敏的反映。地震的形成与区域构造应力活动强度密切相关 ,这种大范围的区域应力作用会形成多个应力集中点 ,在众多应力集中点上可产生地下流体前兆异常变化。在对新疆地下流体数十年的监测中 ,发现强震前出现大量与地震有关的由区域构造应力活动引起的前兆异常 ,异常范围广且种类繁多 ,它们在成因、特征上与震源应力活动的前兆异常明显不同 ;这种地下水位地震前兆异常场 ,不能完全孤立地与单个地震事件相对应 ,应充分考虑到它与一组或系列地震有关 ,而这些地震往往与块体挤压、断裂活动等区域性的应力活动有关。因此 ,正确区分并掌握其不同的特性 ,对地震预报具有一定的意义     

The characteristics of variation in inhomogeneity of temporal-spatial distribution of short to imminent precursors before strong earthquakes

IntroductionShort-to-imminentprecursorsstillarethemainbasisforearthquakepredictioninthepresenttime.Strongquakes,especiallythosewithnoforeshocks,canbeforecastedtosomeextentbasedonabundantshoat-to-imminentprecursorsandcombiningwiththemid-to-longtermvar...     

Sources of variability in springwater chemistry in Fool Creek,a high-elevation catchment of the Rocky Mountains,Colorado, USA

Springs are the point of origin for most headwater streams and are important regulators of their chemical composition. We analysed solute concentrations of water emerging from 57 springs within the 3 km² Fool Creek catchment at the Fraser Experimental Forest and considered sources of spatial variation among them and their influence on the chemical composition of downstream water. On average, calcium and acid neutralizing capacity (bicarbonate-ANC) comprised 50 and 90% of the cation and anion charge respectively, in both spring and stream water. Variation in inorganic chemical composition among springs reflected distinct groundwater sources and catchment geology. Springs emerging through glacial deposits in the upper portion of the catchment were the most dilute and similar to snowmelt, whereas lower elevation springs were more concentrated in cations and ANC. Water emerging from a handful of springs in a geologically faulted portion of the catchment were more concentrated than all others and had a predominant effect on downstream ion concentrations. Chemical similarity indicated that these springs were linked along surface and subsurface flowpaths. This survey shows that springwater chemistry is influenced at nested spatial scales including broad geologic conditions, elevational and spatial attributes and isolated local features. Our results highlight the role of overlapping factors on solute export from headwater catchments.     

判识水氡地震前兆的方法——以甘肃清水温泉水氡异常为例

地震前兆异常性质的准确判断是提高地震预测水平的前提。据国内外相关统计,真正具有地震预测意义的地震前兆异常数量十分有限。因此,厘清震前异常与地震的关系对今后异常识别意义重大。2017年8月8日九寨沟M_S7.0地震前4个月,甘肃清水温泉水氡出现大幅波动异常变化。为了判断这次异常与九寨沟地震的关系,在异常持续期间,通过抽水实验、水化学组分以及氢氧同位素组成分析,并结合九寨沟地震发震构造以及其他前兆异常空间分布特征,对水氡异常成因机理进行了深入分析。结果表明:对于水氡与水位的变化关系,实验与实际观测结果一致,都呈正相关变化;实验中水氡变化幅度与实际观测的相当;水化学组分以及氢氧同位素测试结果显示清水温泉水氡异常期间,来自地壳深部的流体并未增加;清水温泉区其他前兆没有出现明显的短期异常变化;在空间上清水温泉与九寨沟地震震源区被两条深大断裂隔开。因此,清水温泉水氡大幅异常变化并非九寨沟地震的短期前兆异常,而是企业抽水开始时间、持续时间以及用水量不固定引起的。该实例为地震前流体前兆异常性质的准确判定提供了更为可靠的方法和思路。     

地震前兆还是降雨干扰?——与“宁强5.7级地震前陕西定点形变的异常现象”作者商榷

在宁强M_S5.7地震(2008年5月27日)发生前2天,宝鸡台洞体应变NS和EW分量分别记录到了大幅应变异常,有研究认为该异常是宁强地震的短临前兆^[1]。为客观验证该结论的真伪性,本文采用重复地震检验和统计实证等方法,对该异常进行了较系统的归因分析,结果表明降雨干扰才是主因。     

夏河5.7级地震前青海地下流体台网异常特征研究

2019年10月28日夏河5.7级地震前,青海地下流体台网出现一系列的异常。本文即选取了青海地下流体台网中出现异常的门源水位水温、平安水位水温、乐都水温、佐署水温、湟源水氡、西宁水氡,对异常变化形态、时间进程和同步性、异常空间分布等进行了分析,并异常产生的原因以及与夏河地震的关系进行探讨。认为这些异常不是夏河地震震源体活动导致的,而是青藏高原东北部的构造应力场整体变化的结果,是场兆而不是源兆。     

210Pb in the Pacific: the GEOSECS measurements of particulate and dissolved concentrations

We report here on particulate and dissolved²¹⁰Pb profiles at 16 stations, and on total²¹⁰Pb profiles at 3 stations, all occupied during the Pacific GEOSECS expedition. Comparison with measurements at Yale on GEOSECS library samples indicates that during separation of particulate lead from dissolved lead, our filtered water samples suffered some loss of²¹⁰Pb in the filtration system; this effect appears to have reduced the dissolved²¹⁰Pb activities by ～ 20% in stations where the water was filtered. However, for these first Pacific data on the²¹⁰Pb distribution between the two phases, this effect does not significantly interfere with our recognition of the major features of both particulate and dissolved²¹⁰Pb distributions.The dissolved²¹⁰Pb profiles in general vary geographically, following the²²⁶Ra profiles. In deep water,²²⁶Ra increases northward and eastward from the southwest Pacific, from ～ 22dpm/100kg, to over 40 dpm/100 kg in the northeast Pacific. Our dissolved²¹⁰Pb profiles show a similar increase in deep water, varying from about 10 to 20 dpm/100 kg along this line, and are commonly characterized by a mid-depth maximum. This²¹⁰Pb maximum reflects the mid-depth²²⁶Ra maximum of the Pacific Deep Water observed along the western boundary current.In surface water at low latitudes there is a significant²¹⁰Pb flux from the atmosphere, which produces a²¹⁰Pb/²²⁶Ra activity ratio generally greater than unity. This flux penetrates as deep as 600 m, as indicated by an “induced”²¹⁰Pb minimum caused by the surface maximum. The surface water²¹⁰Pb excess decreases toward high southern latitudes and vanishes in the Circumpolar region.The particulate²¹⁰Pb profiles show a general increase with depth, from ～ 0.3dpm/100kg in subsurface water to ～ 1.5dpm/100kg in bottom water, with or without a mid-depth maximum that reflects the²²⁶Ra or dissolved²¹⁰Pb maximum. The particulate²¹⁰Pb normally comprises about 2% of the total²¹⁰Pb in subsurface water, and this fraction increases to about 10% near the bottom. As the filtration loss is not taken into account, the fraction of particulate²¹⁰Pb quoted here is an upper limit. Since the particulate matter concentrations are quite uniform in the water column below a few hundred meters, the²¹⁰Pb activity of the particulate matter also increases with depth. The particulate matter has a²¹⁰Pb concentration of ～ 100dpm/g in subsurface water, but the concentration increases to ～ 500dpm/g or more toward the bottom. This indicates that there is a cumulative adsorption of Pb onto the suspended particles as they are sinking through the water column.     

甘肃东部温泉中稀有气体及微量组分与构造活动的关系

本文采集并分析了甘肃东部地区9个温泉的化学成分及热焓分布,分别讨论了氦及其同位素比值He³/He⁴、微量元素组分F^-、Cl^-、Li⁺的含量以及He⁴/Ar⁴⁰值的变化。上述各项指标在秦安地区出现了同步异常。最后,应用因子分析方法综合分析了变量与样品的信息变化,结果表明在秦安-清水-带可能有一隐伏断裂,并伴有岩浆挤入。     

川西温泉水温观测及其在芦山MS7.0 地震前的异常现象

在2013年芦山M_S7.0地震震中附近流体观测点进行现场考察的基础上, 本文选择川西地区观测环境较好、 干扰较少的温泉水温观测资料进行回溯性分析. 结果表明, 康定龙头沟和二道桥温泉、 道孚龙普沟温泉、 理塘毛垭温泉、 泸定共和温泉水温在芦山地震前均出现不同程度的异常变化. 其主要表现为, 距离震中较远的理塘毛垭温泉和道孚龙普沟温泉水温在震前2年左右出现中期尺度异常, 距离震中较近的康定龙头沟和二道桥温泉水温在震前3个月内出现短期异常. 通过温泉水化学及δD-δ18O稳定同位素特征分析, 认为这些温泉水具有深循环特征, 能灵敏地反映地壳深部地热及构造变化信息, 是芦山地震前观测到异常的可能原因. 加强对这些温泉点的观测, 对区域地震预测研究具有重要的科学意义和现实意义.      

Chemical and isotopic investigation of warm springs associated with normal faults in Utah

Thermal springs associated with normal faults in Utah have been analyzed for major cations and anions, and oxygen and hydrogen isotopes. Springs with measured temperatures averaging greater than 40°C are characterized by Na + K- and SO₄ + Cl-rich waters containing 10³ to 10⁴ mg/l of dissolved solids. Lower temperature springs, averaging less than 40°C, are more enriched in Ca + Mg relative to Na + K. Chemical variations monitored through time in selected thermal springs are probably produced by mixing with non-thermal waters. During the summer months at times of maximum flow, selected hot springs exhibit their highest temperatures and maximum enrichments in most chemical constituents.Cation ratios and silica concentrations remain relatively constant through time for selected Utah thermal springs assuring the applicability of the geothermometer calculations regardless of the time of year. Geothermometer calculations utilizing either the quartz (no steam loss), chalcedony or Mg-corrected Na/K/Ca methods indicate that most thermal springs in Utah associated with normal faults have subsurface temperatures in the range of 25 to less than 120°C. This temperature range suggests fluid circulation is restricted to depths less than about three kilometers assuming an average thermal gradient of about 40°C/km.Thermodynamic calculations suggest that most thermal springs are oversaturated with respect to calcite, quartz, pyrophyllite, (Fe, Mg)-montmorillonite, microcline and hematite, and undersaturated with respect to anhydrite, gypsum, fluorite and anorthite. Chalcedony and cristobalite appear to be the only phases consistently at or near saturation in most waters. Theoretical evaluation of mixing on mineral saturation trends indicates that anhydrite and calcite become increasingly more undersaturated as cold, dilute groundwater mixes with a hot (150°C), NaCl-rich fluid. The evolution of these thermal waters issuing from faults appears to be one involving the dissolution of silicates such as feldspars and micas by CO₂-enriched groundwaters that become more reactive with increasing temperature and/or time. Solution compositions plotted on mineral equilibrium diagrams trend from product phases such as kaolinite or montmorillonite toward reactant phases dominated by alkali feldspars.Isotopic compositions indicate that these springs are of local surface origin, either meteoric (low TDS, < 5000 mg/l) or connate ground water (high TDS, > 5000 mg/l). Deviations from the meteoric water line are the result of rock-water isotopic exchange, mixing or evaporation. Fluid source regions and residence times of selected thermal spring systems (Red Hill, Thermo) have been evaluated through the use of a σ D-contour map of central and western Utah. Ages for waters in these areas range from about 13 years to over 500 years. These estimates are comparable to those made for low-temperature hydrothermal systems in Iceland.     

Hardware complex for recording soil gas concentrations and searching for precursor anomalies before strong earthquakes in South Kamchatka

At the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky geodynamic test site the instrumental complex has operated for the registration of subsurface gas concentration since 2006. In this paper the main components of the complex and their capabilities are described. To illustrate the work of the complex the dynamics of subsurface gas concentrations in the period from February to March 2011 (before and after the earthquake off the coast of Japan, March 11, 2011, M = 9.0) in one of the registration points was analyzed. These data indicate geodynamic processes during this period in the considered area at the point of subsurface gas registration. Selected dynamics anomalies of the subsurface gas concentrations can be regarded as a short-term remote precursor of the earthquake off the coast of Japan.     

Isotopic composition of waters from the Danakil depression (Ethiopia)

During two expeditions in the Danakil depression (Ethiopia), water samples were collected from: (a) hot springs in Dallol, Salt Plain, in the north of the depression; (b) cold and hot springs around Lake Giulietti; and c) Lake Giulietti.The isotopic results indicate: the water from Dallol hot springs is enriched in¹⁸O by isotopic exchange with the rocks as has been observed in many other geothermal areas of the world; b) the isotopic composition of the Lake Giulietti water changes with depth, probably as a consequence of a seasonal stratification; c) the springs in the Lake Giulietti region contain waters which result from the mixing of local meteoric water with a brine, or with lake waters.     

Radon Precursory Signals for Some Earthquakes of Magnitude > 5 Occurred in N-W Himalaya: An Overview

The N-W Himalaya was rocked by a few major and many minor earthquakes. Two major earthquakes in Garhwal Himalaya: Uttarkashi earthquake of magnitude M_s= 7.0 (m_b = 6.6) on October 20, 1991 in Bhagirthi valley and Chamoli earthquake of M_s= 6.5 (m_b = 6.8) on March 29, 1999 in the Alaknanda valley and one in Himachal Himalaya: Chamba earthquake of magnitude 5.1 on March 24, 1995 in Chamba region, were recorded during the last decade and correlated with radon anomalies. The helium anomaly for Chamoli earthquake was also recorded and the Helium/Radon ratio model was tested on it. The precursory nature of radon and helium anomalies is a strong indicator in favor of geochemical precursors for earthquake prediction and a preliminary test for the Helium/Radon ratio model.