Amateur decision-making in avalanche terrain with and without a decision aid: a stated choice survey

Avalanches pose a serious threat to recreational backcountry travelers in mountainous terrain. This study explores how the three main amateur user groups of avalanche terrain in western Canada (backcountry skiers, out-of-bound skiers, and snowmobile riders) balance recreational goals with safety concerns when choosing backcountry destinations under varying avalanche conditions. Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE), a stated preference technique, the study first examines the strengths and weaknesses in the decision process of the three amateur groups by comparing their responses with the choice patterns of professional mountain guides. The results show that the decision-making strategies employed by the respective amateur groups vary considerably in their level of complexity and the degree to which avalanche safety considerations are incorporated. Second, we examine the effects of a decision aid that preprocesses the most crucial pieces of avalanche hazard information on the decision preferences of the amateur groups in the DCE. The results show that a relatively simple decision aid can influence the decision-making process considerably and steer users towards more avalanche hazard sensitive behaviour.     

Avalanche Risk During Backcountry Skiing – An Analysis of Risk Factors

Skier-triggered avalanches are the main cause of avalanche accidents in backcountry skiing. The risk of accidents during backcountry skiing was analysed statistically and related to factors such as elevation level, aspect, stability rating and the time of the year. The analysis is based on a database about terrain usage and avalanche accidents from a large heli-skiing operator in Canada, which makes it possible to study the conditional probability of accidents given the recorded pattern of terrain usage. This study shows that the historical risk of accidentally triggering an avalanche greater than size 1 depends highly on the stability rating, with the highest risk occurring during “poor” stability. The risk is greater at high elevations, and it is lower during the late season than earlier on. Skier risk does not depend as much on aspect as may be indicated from avalanche data alone. However, it is relatively high in the N–NE–E sector. These factors are not independent of each other and therefore analyses of combined factors were also performed. Questionnaires and interviews were used to gain knowledge about the terrain selection of professional mountain guides. These results indicate that when selecting terrain, guides first look at the overall shape and size of the terrain, but avalanche history of terrain and inclination are also important factors. Finally, remarks in avalanche reports were analysed, and common human factors identified.     

Describing the severity of avalanche terrain numerically using the observed terrain selection practices of professional guides

The physical risk from snow avalanches poses a serious threat to mountain backcountry travelers. Avalanche risk is primarily managed by (1) assessing avalanche hazard through analysis of the local weather, snowpack, and recent avalanche activity and (2) selecting terrain that limits exposure to the identified hazard. Professional ski guides have a tremendous wealth of knowledge about using terrain to manage avalanche risk, but their expertise is tacit, which makes it difficult for them to explicitly articulate the underlying decision rules. To make this existing expertise more broadly accessible, this study examines whether it is possible to derive quantitative measures for avalanche terrain severity and condition-dependent terrain guidance directly from observed terrain selection of professional guides. We equipped lead guides at Mike Wiegele Helicopter Skiing with GPS tracking units during the 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 winters creating a dataset of 10,592 high-resolution tracked ski runs. We used four characteristics—incline, vegetation, down-slope curvature (convexities/concavities), and cross-slope curvature (gullies/ridges)—to describe the skied terrain and employed a mixed-effects ordered logistic regression model to examine the relationship between the character of most severe avalanche terrain skied on a day and the associated field-validated avalanche hazard ratings. Patterns in the regression parameter estimates reflected the existing understanding of how terrain is selected to manage avalanche risk well: the guides skied steeper, less dense vegetation, and more convoluted slopes during times of lower avalanche hazard. Avalanche terrain severity scores derived from the parameter estimates compared well to terrain previously zoned according to the Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale. Using a GIS implementation of the regression analysis, we created avalanche condition-dependent maps that provide insights into what type of terrain guides deemed acceptable for skiing under different avalanche hazard conditions. These promising results highlight the potential of tracking guides’ terrain selection decisions as they manage avalanche hazard for the development of evidence-based avalanche terrain ratings and decision aids for professional and recreational backcountry travelers.     

The strength and weight of evidence in backcountry avalanche forecasting

In North America and Europe, most fatalities due to snow avalanches occur in the backcountry during recreational pursuits. Of these, more than 90% of the fatal avalanches are triggered by the victims themselves. This pattern suggests that the primary cause of avalanche fatalities for human-triggered avalanches is a failure in human perception. For the latter, people thought that the state of stability or instability of the snow cover was different than it actually was. In this paper, the strength and weight of evidence used to make decisions in backcountry travel are discussed from: (a) the perspective of the favored hypothesis to proceed for good recreational enjoyment based on stability evaluation and (b) the null hypothesis based on an assessment of instability. Based on the facts about snow slab avalanche release, it is argued that instability analysis is the best framework for avalanche forecasting, whereas human action is most closely related to the favored hypothesis (stability evaluation). Using scaling laws derived from: (a) fracture mechanics about the size of imperfections causing avalanches and (b) avalanche dimensions, it is suggested that a snow slab could show stability over more than 99% of the total area. From the concepts of Bayesian probability, it is shown that overconfidence about stability can arise when the weight of the likelihood is high and the weight of prior is low. Similarly, underconfidence (excessive conservatism) often results when the weight of the prior is high with little regard for the likelihood, which may be low. Overconfidence about stability is considered to be a prime source of accidents.     

Avalanche Defence Strategies and Monitoring of Two Sites in Mountain Permafrost Terrain, Pontresina, Eastern Swiss Alps

Snow-supporting avalanche defence structures are increasingly being built at high altitudes in potential permafrost areas. Special construction methods and guidelines have been developed to ensure a minimal stability of the structures, which have a vital role in the protection of underlying settlements and transport infrastructure against snow avalanches. If the avalanche slopes are located on ice-rich permafrost terrain, as is the case in a steep avalanche gully above Pontresina (Eastern Swiss Alps), other means of protection must be used – such as deflection or retention dams – as construction on ice-rich sediments can be very problematic. Experimental snow-supporting structures were built in 1997 in order to test different types of structures and their foundations, to develop specially adapted construction methods and to monitor the long-term behaviour of the structures in moderately creeping frozen ground with volumetric ice contents under 20%. Snow-nets were found to be the most suitable type of protection against avalanches in this type of permafrost terrain due to their deformability and because they are well adapted to rock fall. The structures do not improve slope stability but contribute towards maintaining permafrost as they delay snow melt by modifying the spatial and temporal distribution of the snow cover. The results of the project described have led to a better understanding of permafrost-related avalanche defence problems.     

Using tree-ring signals and numerical model to identify the snow avalanche tracks in Kastamonu,Turkey

Many parts of our planet are exposed to natural disasters such as snow avalanches, floods and earthquakes. Detailed knowledge on these natural disasters is crucial for human safety. On December 25–26, 1992, two avalanches occurred at Kayaarkası-Kastamonu in northern Turkey. The first avalanche took place at night of 25–26 December and caused no damage. The second avalanche took place at morning of 26 December, killed four people and did damage to properties. The purpose of the present study is to determine the effects of the snow avalanches on tree rings and to investigate the boundaries and velocities of the avalanches using a numerical simulation model and the tree-ring data. Increment cores from 71 trees in the avalanche-impacted area and the control site were sampled to obtain individual standard chronologies. In the analyses, trees were grouped as (1) heavily damaged by the avalanche, showing a decrease in tree-ring widths since the event, (2) trees heavily damaged by the avalanche, showing an increase in tree-ring widths a couple of years later the event and (3) trees that were not damaged by the avalanche. In this study, one of the most important results is the precise determination of the temporal and spatial patterns of the undocumented avalanche (the first avalanche) event. Avalanches were numerically simulated using dynamical avalanche simulation software ELBA+. Comparison of the simulation model with tree-ring analysis revealed valuable results about the boundaries of the zone of influence of the avalanches.     

Snow Avalanche Hazards and Management in Canada: Challenges and Progress

Avalanche impacts in Canada, including fatalities, are summarized for residential and public areas, as well as roads, ski areas, backcountry recreation, and resource industries. Methods for managing avalanche hazard, which include defence structures, zoning, forecasting and explosive control, are outlined. Problems with current avalanche hazard management are identified and progress at solving these problems is identified with an emphasis on residential areas, backcountry recreation and resource industries.     

Summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation over eastern Arabian sea — As revealed by TRMM microwave imager products

The time evolution of atmospheric parameters on intraseasonal time scale in the eastern Arabian Sea (EAS) is studied during the summer monsoon seasons of 1998–2003 using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI) data. This is done using the spectral and wavelet analysis. Analysis shows that over EAS, total precipitable water vapour (TWV) and sea surface wind speed (SWS) have a periodicity of 8–15 days, 15–30 days and 30–60 days during the monsoon season. Significant power is seen in the 8–15-day time scale in TWV during onset and retreat of the summer monsoon. Analysis indicates that the timings of the intensification of 8–15, 15–30, and 30–60 days oscillations have a profound effect on the evolution of the daily rainfall over west coast of India. The positive and negative phases of these oscillations are directly related to the active and dry spells of rainfall along the west coast of India. The spectral analysis shows interannual variation of TWV and SWS. Heavy rainfall events generally occur over the west coast of India when positive phases of both 30–60 days and 15–30 days modes of TWV and SWS are simultaneously present.     

Avalanche hazard mapping over large undocumented areas

An innovative methodology to perform avalanche hazard mapping over large undocumented areas is herewith presented and discussed. The method combines GIS tools, computational routines, and statistical analysis in order to provide a “semi-automatic” definition of areas potentially affected by avalanche release and motion. The method includes two main modules. The first module is used to define zones of potential avalanche release, based on the consolidated relations on slope, morphology, and vegetation. For each of the identified zones of potential release, a second module, named Avalanche Flow and Run-out Algorithm (AFRA), provides an automatic definition of the areas potentially affected by avalanche motion and run-out. The definition is generated by a specifically implemented “flow-routing algorithm” which allows for the determination of flow behaviour in the track and in the run-out zone. In order to estimate the avalanche outline in the run-out zone, AFRA uses a “run-out cone”, which is a 3D projection of the angle of reach α. The α-value is evaluated by statistical analysis of historical data regarding extreme avalanches. Pre- and post-processing of the AFRA input/output data is done in an open source GIS environment (GRASS GIS). The method requires only a digital terrain model and an indication of the areas covered by forest as input parameters. The procedure, which allows rapid mapping of large areas, does not in principle require any site-specific historical information. Furthermore, it has proven to be effective in all cases where a preliminary cost-efficient analysis of the territories potentially affected by snow avalanche was needed.     

Research on catastrophic rock avalanche at Guanling, Guizhou, China

On June 28, 2010, a catastrophic rock avalanche occurred after an extreme rainstorm at Guanling with N 25°59′10′′ in latitude and E 105°16′50′′ in longitude, Guizhou, China. This rock avalanche has a long run-out distance of 1.5 km, with 1.75 million cubic meters of debris instantly burying two villages and resulting in 99 deaths. It originated in the coal measure strata, with the upper part of limestone and dolomite, the middle part of the sandstone with gentle inclination, and the lower part of shale and mudstone, together locally with coals. This kind of unique structure, with hard resistant caprock overlying softer ductile rocks, coupled with the central outflow region at the contact zone, has catastrophic potential for rock avalanches and creates challenges for engineering geological/hydrogeological analysis. The topography showed that the hillside slopes were steeper at the upper portion but gentler in the lower portion, looked like the shape of a “boot.” The upper steep landform easily led to slope instability due to its high static shear stresses, and the wide middle and lower parts provided kinematic conditions for long run-out. Transformation of the larger potential energy into kinetic energy contributed to the formation of a rapid long run-out rock avalanche. The rainfall from June 27 to 28 was the apparent trigger of this catastrophic avalanche. The measured rainfall of more than 310 mm within 24 h exceeded the local historical records that were recorded over the last 60 years. The pore pressure on discontinuities of sandstone had an effect on the slope stability. The valley runoff supplied a saturated base for the long run-out debris, inducing an additional increase of the terminus distance and the increased velocity of the avalanche movement.     

Characteristics and formation mechanism of a catastrophic rainfall–induced rock avalanche–mud flow in Sichuan, China, 2010

A catastrophic rock avalanche–mud flow was triggered by the heavy rainfall in Sichuan, China, on July 27, 2010. A mass of strongly weathered basalts with a volume of ∼480,000 m³ was initiated from a valley side slope and then moved downstream along the valley, entraining a large amount of unconsolidated substrate and bilateral materials and colluviums. The entrainment increased the volume of slide to ∼1.0 million m³ and may also enhance the mobility of the landslide. Approximately 30 min after the first failure, the deposits of the rock avalanche in the steepest part of the valley started to creep slowly down as a mud flow. It reached a small town at the foot of the slope after several hours, causing the damage of 92 houses and the urgent evacuation of 1,500 people. The field investigation, mapping, grain size test, and aerial photo interpretation were applied to analyze the dynamic process and the formation mechanism of the landslide. The strongly weathered and fragmented basalts as well as the most vulnerable combination of joint sets were revealed to be the most contributive factors. The antecedent torrential rainfall is the direct trigger, which affected the slope stability in three aspects: induced debris flow that scoured the toe of the sliding surface of rock avalanche; caused the increase of the slope unit weight, and penetrated into the steep joints reducing the strength of the materials.     

The Keylong Serai rock avalanche, NW Indian Himalaya: geomorphology and palaeoseismic implications

This paper describes the geomorphology of rock avalanche deposits that resulted from a major mountain slope failure at Keylong Serai on the north slope of the Indian High Himalaya, an area of high altitude desert. Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be exposure ages of the widespread deposits indicate their formation 7,510 ± 110 years BP. Proxy records for this region of the Himalaya imply a similar dry climatic regime to the present day at this time, suggesting that precipitation was an unlikely trigger for this rock avalanche. An alternative mechanism associated with rock-wall stress relaxation is also unlikely, given the earlier timing of deglaciation in this area. Given the enormous volume of debris generated by this event, the most likely trigger for this mountain collapse and resultant rock avalanche is high ground acceleration during a great earthquake (M > 8). It is proposed that rock avalanches can be used to extend the limited palaeoseismic record and improve information on the recurrence interval of great earthquakes within the Himalaya arc.     

The influence of recultivation technique and seed mixture on erosion stability after restoration in mountain environment

Control of erosion, and all of its after effects, from increased surface drainage and erosion to the formation of karst, is one of the essential problems when undertaking recultivation following necessary interventions in the sub-alpine and alpine vegetation stage (high zones). Average slope inclinations of 30–45% in the vicinity of ski runs, and far above in areas of natural erosion and avalanche zones, make restoration processes with sufficient erosion protection the prerequisite for success. Only a sufficient vegetation development of more than 70% ground cover stabilises the topsoil in the long term and reduces soil erosion to an acceptable degree. From 1999 to 2002, an international EU project with the participation of research groups and private firms from Austria, Italy and Germany was carried out under the direction of the Agricultural Research and Education Centre Raumberg-Gumpenstein (AREC) on five different Alpine sites at altitudes from 1,245 to 2,350 m above sea level. The aim of the work was the formulation of practice-relevant requirements for recultivation following intervention in high zones, especially following constructional measures in the vicinity of ski runs and lifts, torrent- and avalanche barriers. In a statistical comparison, the relationship between restoration techniques, seed mixtures of differing ecological value and vegetation cover was observed. The influence of application technique on erosion processes after restoration was obvious for the first two vegetation periods. Only with the additional use of mulch covers could increase surface drainage and noticeable soil loss be avoided. At high altitudes, the choice of seed mixture, irrespective of whether rapid or slow growing and independent of the extent of accompanying fertilisation, had no significance in the first two vegetation periods following sowing. In the following growing seasons, however, higher cover values were obtained with site-specific seed mixtures at three of the five experimental sites. While few species of the commercial seed mixture showed satisfactory persistency, most of the grasses and in particular the alpine leguminosae of site-specific seed mixtures increased their share during the observation period. In the long-term, sufficient protection against erosion is only guaranteed by the use of stable, enduring and ecologically adapted species.     

A giant avalanche on K2 mount,Karakorum

On September 16th, 1986, an ice avalanche from a hanging glacier near the K2 peak at 7800 m asl, Karakorum, triggered a massive avalanche of ice and snow. Ice and snow, impacting on the path, formed a dust cloud at the advancing tip. Grounding on the firn basin surface, ice and snow broke into fine powder and covered the whole basin. Fine powder of the dust cloud rose up to 500–600 m and drifted 4–5 km away. On the basis of field observations and measurements, topography and weather, conditions of the avalanche formation are analyzed. Judging by the data obtained, the avalanche was extremely large, its vertical descend being 2500 m, the maximum motion speed 124 m/s, volume of the avalanche mass 2 × 10⁵ m³ to 10⁷ m³, and impact pressure, as the avalanche grounded, 2.3 × 10⁶ Pa. It could have been one of the largest avalanches ever recorded, causing danger for mountaineering and expedition activities in this area.     

Impact of vegetation on the simulation of seasonal monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent using a regional model

The change in the type of vegetation fraction can induce major changes in the local effects such as local evaporation, surface radiation, etc., that in turn induces changes in the model simulated outputs. The present study deals with the effects of vegetation in climate modeling over the Indian region using the MM5 mesoscale model. The main objective of the present study is to investigate the impact of vegetation dataset derived from SPOT satellite by ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) versus that of USGS (United States Geological Survey) vegetation dataset on the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon. The present study has been conducted for five monsoon seasons (1998–2002), giving emphasis over the two contrasting southwest monsoon seasons of 1998 (normal) and 2002 (deficient). The study reveals mixed results on the impact of vegetation datasets generated by ISRO and USGS on the simulations of the monsoon. Results indicate that the ISRO data has a positive impact on the simulations of the monsoon over northeastern India and along the western coast. The MM5-USGS has greater tendency of overestimation of rainfall. It has higher standard deviation indicating that it induces a dispersive effect on the rainfall simulation. Among the five years of study, it is seen that the RMSE of July and JJAS (June–July–August–September) for All India Rainfall is mostly lower for MM5-ISRO. Also, the bias of July and JJAS rainfall is mostly closer to unity for MM5-ISRO. The wind fields at 850 hPa and 200 hPa are also better simulated by MM5 using ISRO vegetation. The synoptic features like Somali jet and Tibetan anticyclone are simulated closer to the verification analysis by ISRO vegetation. The 2 m air temperature is also better simulated by ISRO vegetation over the northeastern India, showing greater spatial variability over the region. However, the JJAS total rainfall over north India and Deccan coast is better simulated using the USGS vegetation. Sensible heat flux over north-west India is also better simulated by MM5-USGS.     

Soil hydraulic properties on the steep karst hillslopes in northwest Guangxi, China

Soil hydraulic properties such as soil infiltration rate and hydraulic conductivity are closely linked to runoff generation and infiltration processes but little is known about them on karst hillslopes. The objectives of this paper were to investigate the change in soil stable infiltration rate (q _s) and near-saturated hydraulic conductivity (K _ns) in different slope positions and to understand their relationship with rock fragment content and soil texture within the topsoil in subtropical karst regions of southwest China. Tension infiltrometers (20 cm in diameter) were used to measure q _s and K _ns at pressure head of −20 mm on hillslopes 1 (a disintegrated landslide failure) and 2 (an avalanche slope). The change of q _s and K _ns was great and they mostly had a moderate variability with coefficient of variations (CV) between 0.1 and 1.0 in the different slope positions. On average, q _s ranged from 0.43 to 4.25 mm/min and K _ns varied from 0.75 to 11.00 mm/min. These rates exceed those of most natural rainfall events, confirming that overland flow is rare on karst hillslopes. From bottom to top, q _s and K _ns had a decrease–increase–decrease trend due to the presence of large rock outcrops (>2 m in height) on hillslope 1 but had an increasing trend on hillslope 2 with less complex landform. They tended to increase with increase in total rock fragment content (5–250 mm) within the topsoil as well as slope gradient on both hillslopes. Pearson correlation analysis suggested that higher coarse pebble (20–75 mm), cobble (75–250 mm), and sand (2–0.05 mm) contents as well as total rock fragment content could significantly facilitate water infiltration into soils, but higher clay (<0.002 mm) content could restrict water movement. This result indicated that rock fragment, sand, and clay contents may remarkably affect water flow in the topsoil layers, and should be considered in hydrological modeling on karst hillslopes in subtropical regions.     

Snow avalanche hazards in the Făgăraş massif (Southern Carpathians): Romanian Carpathians—Management and perspectives

Snow avalanches represent an undeniable reality in the Southern Carpathians both as a geomorphic process and as a type of hazard. Before the 1990s, few researchers focused on avalanches in Romania. However, after 1990, avalanches became an increasingly important topic of Romanian research including research on their management implications. This study focuses on the Făgăraş massif, a representative mountain unit in the Southern Carpathians that is dominant due to its glacial and periglacial relief, high altitudes and high occurrence of avalanche hazards. Three main research issues are considered. First, types of avalanches are delineated along with affected areas of the Balea glacial valley (on the northern slope) and the Capra glacial valley (on the southern slope) using data from a research centre for snow and avalanche monitoring that was created in the Balea glacial cirque in 2003. Second, the impact of avalanches on human activities is considered including transportation use of the Transfăgărăşan Highway that traverses the highest elevations in Romania and winter recreation activities such as skiing, snowboarding, climbing and hiking. The impacts on forests are also considered. Third, the needs and gaps of avalanche management are considered, specifically in the Făgăraş massif and also more generally in the mountains of Romania.     

A Discontinuous Approach to the Numerical Modelling of Rock Avalanches

Summary. The runout of dry rock avalanches produced by planar rockslides affecting a limestone formation with clayey interbeds is analysed by means of distinct element modelling. Potential and past rock avalanche events are described with reference to the geotechnical and structural conditions of the slope, typical of several Alpine valleys. Runout prediction analyses of potential rock avalanches performed with the PFC^2D code are based on independent measurement of strength, energy dissipation and stiffness parameters of the rock mass and are validated by means of the back analysis of a historical rockslide occurred in the investigated area. Physical aspects of the avalanching process evidenced by modelling are also discussed. Author’s address: Paolo Tommasi, CNR – Institute for Geo-Engineering and Environmental Geology, c/o Facoltá di Ingegneria, Via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Rome, Italy     

Exploring the magnitude–frequency distribution: a cellular automata model for landslides

Landslide magnitude–frequency curves allow for the probabilistic characterization of regional landslide hazard. There is evidence that landslides exhibit self-organized criticality including the tendency to follow a power law over part of the magnitude–frequency distribution. Landslide distributions, however, also typically exhibit poor agreement with the power law at smaller sizes in a flattening of the slope known as rollover. Understanding the basis for this difference is critical if we are to accurately predict landslide hazard, risk or landscape denudation over large areas. One possible argument is that the magnitude–frequency distribution is dominated by physiographic controls whereby landslides tend to a larger size, and larger landslides are landscape limited according to a power law. We explore the physiographic argument using first a simple deterministic model and then a cellular automata model for watersheds in coastal British Columbia. The results compare favorably to actual landslide data: modeled landslides bifurcate at local elevation highs, deposit mass preferentially where the local slopes decrease, find routes in confined valley or channel networks, and, when sufficiently large, overwhelm the local topography. The magnitude–frequency distribution of both the actual landslides and the cellular automata model follow a power law for magnitudes higher than 10,000–20,000 m² and show a flattening of the slope for smaller magnitudes. Based on the results of both models, we argue that magnitude–frequency distributions, including both the rollover and the power law components, are a result of actual physiographic limitations related to slope, slope distance, and the distribution of mass within landslides. The cellular automata model uses simple empirically based rules that can be gathered for regions worldwide.     

Thermodynamic properties and equation of state of fcc aluminum and bcc iron, derived from a lattice vibrational method

We use a lattice vibrational technique to derive thermophysical and thermochemical properties of the pure elements aluminum and iron in pressure–temperature space. This semi-empirical technique is based on either the Mie–Grüneisen–Debye (MGD) approach or an extension of Kieffer’s model to incorporate details of the phonon spectrum. It includes treatment of intrinsic anharmonicity, electronic effects based on the free electron gas model, and magnetic effects based on the Calphad approach. We show that Keane’s equation of state for the static lattice is better suitable to represent thermodynamic data for aluminum from 1 bar to pressures in the multi-megabar region relative to Vinet’s universal and the Birch–Murnaghan equation of state. It appears that the MGD and Mie–Grüneisen–Kieffer approach produce similar results, but that the last one better represents heat capacity below room temperature. For iron we show that the high temperature behavior of thermal expansivity can be explained within the Calphad approach by a pressure-dependent Curie temperature with a slope between –1 and 0 K/GPa.