Adapting dryland agriculture to climate change: Farming implications and research and development needs in Western Australia

The Western Australian wheat-belt has experienced more rainfall decline than any other wheat-cropping region in Australia. Future climate change scenarios suggest that the Western Australian wheat-belt is likely to see greater future reductions in rainfall than other regions, together with a further increase in temperatures. While these changes appear adverse for water-limited rain-fed agriculture, a close analysis of the changes and their impacts reveals a more complex story. Twentieth century changes in rainfall, temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration have had little or no overall impact on wheat yields. Changes in agricultural technology and farming systems have had much larger impacts. Contrary to some claims, there is no scientific or economic justification for any immediate actions by farmers to adapt to long-term climate change in the Western Australian wheat-belt, beyond normal responses to short-term variations in weather. Rather than promoting current change, the most important policy response is research and development to enable farmers to facilitate future adaptation to climate change. Research priorities are proposed.     

Improving technology transfer through national systems of innovation: climate relevant innovation-system builders (CRIBs)

The Technology Executive Committee (TEC) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) recently convened a workshop seeking to understand how strengthening national systems of innovation (NSIs) might help to foster the transfer of climate technologies to developing countries. This article reviews insights from the literatures on Innovation Studies and Socio-Technical Transitions to demonstrate why this focus on fostering innovation systems has potential to be more transformative as an international policy mechanism for climate technology transfer than anything the UNFCCC has considered to date. Based on insights from empirical research, the article also articulates how the existing architecture of the UNFCCC Technology Mechanism could be usefully extended by supporting the establishment of CRIBs (climate relevant innovation-system builders) in developing countries – key institutions focused on nurturing the climate-relevant innovation systems and building technological capabilities that form the bedrock of transformative, climate-compatible technological change and development.

Policy relevance

This article makes a direct contribution to current work by the TEC of the UNFCCC on enhancing enabling environments for and addressing barriers to technology development and transfer (specifically, it will contribute to Activity 4.3 of the TEC's 2014–15 rolling workplan ‘Further work on enablers and barriers, taking into account the outcomes of the workshop on NSIs’). The article articulates both the conceptual basis that justifies a focus on NSIs in relation to climate technology transfer and makes concrete recommendations as to how this can be implemented under the Convention as a Party-driven extension to the existing architecture of the Technology Mechanism.     

Cost containment in climate policy and incentives for technology development

Safety valves, discretionary advisory boards, and other cost containment mechanisms enhance the political feasibility of stringent climate policy by limiting firms’ and households’ exposures to higher than anticipated costs associated with reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. However, cost containment comes at a price; it increases the risk of climate-related damages and simultaneously discourages investments to develop low-carbon technologies. A stylized model of the cost of climate policy is used to estimate that proposed cost containment mechanisms will increase emissions by 11–70% by 2030. Because these clauses limit the payoffs to innovation, they reduce our societal capacity to affordably mitigate climate change through technology improvement. If cost containment measures are to be employed at levels discussed in recent policy debates, then complementary policies to fund technology development will be needed; crucially, the two also need to be linked. One way to resolve the impasse between increased climatic damages and reduced incentives for innovation is to create a technology development fund with contributions indexed to the amount by which the market price for carbon exceeds the price cap.     

Financing REDD in developing countries: a supply and demand analysis

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) in developing countries has been at the centre of negotiations on a renewed international climate regime. Developing countries have made it clear that their ability to engage in REDD activities would depend on obtaining sufficient and stable funding. Two alternative REDD financing options are examined to find possible ways forward: financing through a future compliance market and financing through a non-offset fund. First, global demand for hypothetical REDD credits is estimated. The demand for REDD credits would be highest with a base year of 1990, using gross—net accounting. The key factors determining demand in this scenario are the emission reduction targets and the allowable cap. A proportion of emission reduction targets available for offsets lower than 15% would fail to generate a sufficient demand for REDD. Also examined is the option of financing REDD through a fund. Indirectly linking the replenishment of a REDD fund to the market is a promising mechanism, but its feasibility depends on political will. The example of overseas development assistance for global health indicates the conditions for possible REDD financing. The best financial approach for REDD would be a flexible REDD mechanism with two tracks: a market track serving as a mitigation option for developed countries, and a fund track serving as a mitigation option for developing countries.     

Triggering transformative change: a development path approach to climate change response in communities

While climate change action plans are becoming more common, it is still unclear whether communities have the capacity, tools, and targets in place to trigger the transformative levels of change required to build fundamentally low-carbon, resilient, healthy communities. Evidence increasingly supports the finding that this transformation is not triggered by climate policy alone, but rather is shaped by a broad array of decisions and practices that are rooted in underlying patterns of development. Even so, these findings have rarely penetrated the domain of practice, which often remains squarely focused on a relatively narrow set of climate-specific policies. This article builds a conceptual framework for understanding the dynamics of community-level development path transformations that may both dramatically reduce GHG emissions and significantly enhance community resilience. This framework illuminates eight critical enablers of innovation on climate change, each of which is illustrated by compelling examples of community-level experimentation on climate change across the province of British Columbia, Canada. It is concluded that community-based climate (or sustainability) policy might be more likely to trigger development path shifts if it employs a longer time horizon, recognition of adaptability and feedbacks, integrated decision making, and systems thinking.     

Common but differentiated convergence (CDC): a new conceptual approach to long-term climate policy

Abstract

This article describes a new concept for an international climate regime for differentiation of future commitments: the ‘common but differentiated convergence’ approach (CDC). Under CDC, Annex-I countries' per-capita emission allowances converge within a convergence period to a low level. Individual non-Annex-I countries' allowances converge to the same level also within the same period (‘common convergence’), but starting when their per-capita emissions are a certain percentage above global average (‘differentiated’). Until then they may voluntarily take on ‘positively binding’ targets. This approach eliminates two concerns often voiced in relation to gradually converging per-capita emissions: (i) advanced developing countries have their commitment to reduce emissions delayed and their targets are not the same as Annex-I countries with equal per-capita emissions; (ii) CDC does not provide excess emission allowances to the least developing countries. Under CDC, stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at 550 and 650 ppm CO₂-equivalent can be reached with participation at roughly 0% and 50% above global average and convergence to around 3 and 4.5 tCO₂-eq/cap within 40 years. Even if the CDC approach is not implemented in its entirety, it is possible that the step-by-step decisions on the international climate regime can be guided by the principles provided in the CDC approach.     

Agricultural impacts of climate change in Spain: developing tools for a spatial analysis

CERES-Wheat, a dynamic process crop growth model, is specified and validated for seven sites in the major wheat-growing regions of Spain. Variables explaining a significant proportion of simulated yield variance are crop water (sum of precipitation and irrigation) and temperature during the growing season. A multiple linear regression model is developed to represent simulated yield response to these variables. Seven agro-climatic regions are defined based on K-mean cluster analysis of temperature and precipitation data from 329 meteorological stations and provincial crop yield data. The yield functions derived from the validated crop model were then used with the gridded agro-climatic database to conduct a spatial analysis of climate change impacts on national wheat production. Climate change scenarios with and without sulfate aerosols developed from the Hadley Centre (HCGG and HCGS) and Canadian Climate Centre (CCGG and CCGC) are tested.     

Not a panacea: private-sector engagement in adaptation and adaptation finance in developing countries

The role of the private sector in climate finance is increasingly emphasized in international political debates. Knowledge of private engagement in mitigating climate change and in more advanced economies is growing, but the evidence base for private-sector engagement in climate change adaptation in developing countries remains weak. Starting from the premise that the private sector's role in adaptation is often inevitable and potentially significant, this article first analyses the potential of private-sector engagement in adaptation and adaptation financing in developing countries by conceptualizing the private sector's roles and motivation therein. For further inquiry, and for a discussion based on a developing-country context, interviews were conducted with key stakeholders for adaptation of Zambia's agricultural sector, including on ways in which the government can incentivize private-sector engagement in adaptation.

How much private-sector adaptation and adaptation finance can be identified depends on the interpretation of the concept of adaptation. Under a broad interpretation, the domestic private sector in particular can contribute substantially to adaptation, both directly and indirectly, through its investments and activities. However, the international private sector's role in financing adaptation should be analysed under a strict interpretation of adaptation and appears limited.

Policy relevance

International political debates increasingly stress the importance of private climate finance, yet are constrained by vagueness around the private sector's role in adaptation finance. This article conceptualizes and scrutinizes private-sector engagement in adaptation and adaptation finance in developing countries. It concludes that the domestic private sector in particular can contribute substantially to adaptation in direct and indirect ways, and that domestic policies incentivize such contributions. However, international private financing of adaptation is more limited and its analysis requires a stricter interpretation of adaptation. Private-sector engagement in adaptation and adaptation finance can supplement, but not substitute for, public investments in adaptation. These limitations are particularly important when discussing private adaptation finance as part of the developed countries' pledge to mobilize US$100 billion of climate finance per annum from 2020 onwards.     

Iap general circulation models: a first step towards developing a local area model for weather prediction in nigeria

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Trends and climate evolution: Statistical approach for very high temperatures in France

The existence of an increasing trend in average temperatures during the last 50 years is widely acknowledged. Furthermore, there is compelling evidence of the variability of extremes, and rapid strides are made in studies of these events. Indeed, by extending the results of the “extreme value theory” (EVT) to the non-stationary case, analyses can examine the presence of trends in extreme values of stochastic processes. Definition of extreme events, their statistical significance as well as their interpretations have to be handled with great care when used for environmental concerns and public safety. Thus, we will discuss the validity of the hypothesis allowing the use of mathematical theories for these problems. To answer safety requirements, respect installation norms and reduce public risk, return levels are a major operational goal, obtained with the EVT. In this paper, we give quantitative results for observations of high temperatures over the 1950–2003 period in 47 stations in France. We examined the validity of the non-stationary EVT and introduced the notion of return levels (RL) in a time-varying context. Our analysis puts particular accent on the difference between methods used to describe extremes, to perform advanced fits and tests (climatic science), and those estimating the probability of rare future events (security problems in an evolving climate). After enouncing the method used for trend identification of extremes in term of easily interpretable parameters of distribution laws, we apply the procedure to long series of temperature measurements and check the influence of data length on trend estimation. We also address the problem of choosing the part of observations allowing appropriate extrapolation. In our analysis, we determined the influence of the 2003 heat wave on trend and return-level estimation comparing it to the RL in a stationary context. The application of the procedure to 47 stations spread over France is a first step for a refined spatial analysis. Working on the behavior of distribution parameters while assessing trend identification is a primary tool in order to classify climatic change with respect to the location of the station and open a systematic work using the same methodology for other variables and multivariate studies.     

Daytime boundary layer behavior over eastern region (per-humid climate) and western regions (semi-arid climate) of India: a case study

The annual variation in planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is determined from the profiles of conserved thermodynamic variables, i.e., virtual potential temperature ?? _v and equivalent potential temperature ?? _e, using radiosonde data at per-humid climate region, Ranchi (23°42??N, 85°33??E, 610?m asl) and semi-arid region, Anand (23°35??N, 72°55??E, 45.1?m asl), India. Of all the variables, the ?? _v profile seems to provide the most reasonable estimate of the PBL height. This has been supplemented by T-Phi gram analysis for specific days. It has been found that in winter the height of boundary layer is very low due to subsidence and radiational cooling, while pre-monsoon months exhibit the most variable convection. It may be inferred that synoptic conditions accompanied by a variety of weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, onset and withdrawal of monsoons, etc. control the ABL over Ranchi, while daytime solar insolation and nighttime radiative cooling mainly control the ABL over Anand.     

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

Vegetation response to climate and climatic extremes in northwest Bangladesh: a quantile regression approach

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The present study assessed the vegetation response to climate in the water-stressed northwest Bangladesh (NWB). The quantile regression analysis was employed...     

Linking internal and external transformation for sustainability and climate action: Towards a new research and policy agenda

Climate change is an increasing threat to sustainable development worldwide. However, the dominant incremental policy approaches have not generated action at anywhere near the rate, scale or depth that is needed. This is largely due to the fact that climate change has historically been framed as a purely external, technical challenge. There is an urgent need for a more integral understanding that links internal and external (collective and systems) approaches to support transformation. However, related knowledge is scarce and fragmented across disciplines. This study addresses this gap. Through a systematic literature review, we analyse how the linkages between internal and external change are portrayed and understood in current research. We assess the scope, perspectives and approaches used to understand why, and how, internal change relates to climate action and sustainability. Our results highlight patterns and gaps regarding foci, conceptualisation, methods, epistemology, ontology and ethics that hamper emergent solutions and progress. Starting from the status quo, we propose an integrated model of change as an agenda and roadmap for future research, policy and practice.