Tropical cyclone activity in global warming scenario

Research efforts focused on assessing the potential for changes in tropical cyclone activity in the greenhouse-warmed climate have progressed since the IPCC assessment in 1996. Vulnerability to tropical cyclones becoming more pronounced due to the fastest population growth in tropical coastal regions makes it practically important to explore possible changes in tropical cyclone activity due to global warming. This paper investigates the tropical cyclone activity over whole globe and also individually over six different ocean basins. The parameters like storm frequency, storm duration, maximum intensity attained and location of formation of storm have been examined over the past 30-year period from 1977 to 2006. Of all, the north Atlantic Ocean shows a significant increasing trend in storm frequency and storm days, especially for intense cyclones. Lifetime of intense tropical cyclones over south Indian Ocean has been increased. The intense cyclonic activity over north Atlantic, south-west Pacific, north and south Indian Ocean has been increased in recent 15 years as compared to previous 15 years, whereas in the east and west-north Pacific it is decreased, instead weak cyclone activity has been increased there. Examination of maximum intensity shows that cyclones are becoming more and more intense over the south Indian Ocean with the highest rate. The study of the change in the cyclogenesis events in the recent 15 years shows more increase in the north Atlantic. The Arabian Sea experiences increase in the cyclogenesis in general, whereas Bay of Bengal witnesses decrease in these events. Shrinking of cyclogenesis region occurs in the east-north Pacific and south-west Pacific, whereas expansion occurs in west-north Pacific. The change in cyclogenesis events and their spatial distribution in association with the meteorological parameters like sea surface temperature (SST), vertical wind shear has been studied for Indian Ocean. The increase in SST and decrease in wind shear correspond to increase in the cyclogenesis events and vice versa for north Indian Ocean; however, for south Indian Ocean, it is not one to one.     

南极海冰与温度变化关系的统计分析(英)

Temporal-spatial characteristics of Antarctic surface air temperature and sea ice variations have been statistically analyzed. Results show that, during the last 30 years there was an obvious warming trend in Antarctica, but there exists substantial difference in different sectors and different period. The most significant warming trend occurred in the Antarctic Peninsula, about 2-3 times greater than that in the whole east Antarctica. In recent 20 years the correlation between Antarctic mean temperature and mean sea ice area is low and insignificant, but its linear trends are found to be opposite related in each sector, that is, sea ice extent reductions when temperatures are high. The different climate sectors defined by cluster analysis clearly show a close relationship between two parameters on the inter-seasonal time scale. The most sensitive correlation sectors found are from south Atlantic to southwest Pacific ocean.     

季节性海冰驱动的冰期北大西洋“电容器”效应

第四纪冰期的千年尺度气候突变事件——Dansgaard-Oeschger Event (D-O事件),一直是古气候学领域关注的重点。近年来,数值模拟的研究发现,北大西洋副极地地区年际-年代际气候变率的振幅在D-O事件中的冰阶冷期远大于间冰阶暖期,这一现象为理解该区域海温代理指标的气候学意义提供了重要参考价值,但其动力机制尚不清晰。本文利用海气耦合气候模型(COSMOS),通过模拟氧同位素(MIS)3阶段的一个典型D-O事件过程,探讨了冰阶冷期北大西洋气候变率的放大机制。结果显示,北大西洋副极地海域的季节性海冰通过调控海气间热量交换,影响当地气候变率的幅度。冰阶期,热带暖水向北输送导致海洋次表层逐渐升温,削弱了表层-次表层海水的密度层结,有利于次表层暖水上涌,促进海冰融化及海表温度升高。这将激发出海平面气压的负异常,引起气旋式风切变,并通过Ekman抽吸作用加速表层-次表层海水的垂直混合,进一步促进次表层暖水的上涌。这一正反馈机制造成海洋次表层热量的迅速释放,海表温度快速升高。当次表层热量释放结束后,海表将无暖水补充,导致海表温度下降,海冰增多。该过程激发的海表气压正异常(即反气旋式风切变)将抑制垂直混合发生,促进次表层热量积累,为下一次放热过程提供条件。在间冰阶暖期,随着北大西洋季节性海冰消失,海气间热交换不再受海冰变化影响,海洋次表层与大气间的热交换始终处于准平衡态,气候变率的振幅显著下降。本研究结果显示,北大西洋季节性海冰的存在可以调控海洋次表层热量积累-释放的过程,产生“电容器”效应,这对理解冰期年际-年代际气候变率放大现象有重要启示意义。     

中国极端气温季节变化对全球变暖减缓的响应分析

利用经过质量控制和均一化处理的中国气象站点1979-2014年逐月最高气温和最低气温资料,对806个无缺测站的数据进行趋势分析和比较,并且计算了各季节对变暖减缓的贡献率,结果表明:中国区域极端气温(最高和最低气温)存在变暖减缓或变冷现象,而不同区域在不同季节对全球变暖减缓的响应程度不同.相比于1979-1999年,2000-2014年极端气温在全国大部分地区春、冬季有明显的变暖减缓或者变冷现象,在长江流域以北大部分地区极端气温在夏季变暖减缓或变冷现象明显,而秋季全国大部分地区最低气温有明显的增暖现象.全国许多地区春季是导致极端气温变暖减缓或变冷的最主要季节,而夏、秋、冬季则是导致部分地区变暖减缓或变冷的主要季节,此外秋季也是导致全国许多地区最低气温变暖的最主要季节.我国大部分地区2000-2014年的变暖减缓或变冷趋势可能受太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)冷位相的调控,而PDO冷位相对最低气温的影响范围更大一些.     

Hydroperiod and its influence on nekton use of the salt marsh: A pulsing ecosystem

The salt marsh surface is not a homogeneous environment. Rather, it contains a mix of different microhabitats, which vary in elevation, microtopography, and location within the estuarine system. These attributes act in concert with astronomical tides and meteorological and climatological events and result in pulses of tidal flooding. Marsh hydroperiod, the pattern of flooding events, not only controls nekton access to marsh surface habitats directly but may also mediate habitat exploitation through its influence on other factors, such as prey abundance or vegetation stem density. The relative importance of factors affecting marsh hydroperiod differ between the southeast Atlantic and northern Gulf of Mexico coasts. Astronomical tidal forcing is the primary determinant of hydroperiod in Atlantic Coast marshes, whereas predictable tides are often overridden by meteorological events in Gulf Coast marshes. In addition, other factors influencing coastal water levels have a proportionately greater effect on the Gulf Coast. The relatively unpredictable timing of marsh flooding along the Gulf Coast does not seem to limit habitat utilization. Some of the highest densities of nekton reported from salt marshes are from Gulf Coast marshes that are undergoing gradual submergence and fragmentation caused by an accelerated rise in relative sea level. Additional studies of habitat utilization are needed, especially on the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Investigations should include regional comparisons of similar microhabitats using identical quantitative sampling methods. Controlled field experiments are also needed to elucidate the mechanisms that affect the habitat function of salt marshes.     

The last interglacial ocean

The final effort of the CLIMAP project was a study of the last interglaciation, a time of minimum ice volume some 122,000 yr ago coincident with the Substage 5e oxygen isotopic minimum. Based on detailed oxygen isotope analyses and biotic census counts in 52 cores across the world ocean, last interglacial sea-surface temperatures (SST) were compared with those today. There are small SST departures in the mid-latitude North Atlantic (warmer) and the Gulf of Mexico (cooler). The eastern boundary currents of the South Atlantic and Pacific oceans are marked by large SST anomalies in individual cores, but their interpretations are precluded by no-analog problems and by discordancies among estimates from different biotic groups. In general, the last interglacial ocean was not significantly different from the modern ocean. The relative sequencing of ice decay versus oceanic warming on the Stage 6/5 oxygen isotopic transition and of ice growth versus oceanic cooling on the Stage 5e/5d transition was also studied. In most of the Southern Hemisphere, the oceanic response marked by the biotic census counts preceded (led) the global ice-volume response marked by the oxygen-isotope signal by several thousand years. The reverse pattern is evident in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, where the oceanic response lagged that of global ice volume by several thousand years. As a result, the very warm temperatures associated with the last interglaciation were regionally diachronous by several thousand years. These regional lead-lag relationships agree with those observed on other transitions and in long-term phase relationships; they cannot be explained simply as artifacts of bioturbational translations of the original signals.     

Tropical cyclones,global climate change and the role of Quaternary studies

The number and types of late Quaternary records of tropical cyclones (TCs) and temperate storms have been increasing globally over the past 10 years. There are now numerous such records for the Atlantic Ocean (USA) and Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, South Pacific Ocean, and a fewer number from the northwest Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The most obvious characteristic of these records is that many reveal extended alternating periods of greater and lesser TC activity over the past 6000 years. The length of these phases of relative inactivity and greater activity depends on the chronological resolution of the record, with the coarser‐resolution ones displaying multi‐century to millennial‐scale episodes and the high‐resolution records displaying decadal to centennial‐scale oscillations. In several instances the likely causes of these alternating periods of TC behaviour have been attributed to different phases of climate when El Niños and La Niñas dominated or to longer‐term variations in sea surface temperatures and possibly solar forcing. The picture emerging from these records is that TC behaviour is not entirely stochastic over the long term and that any simulations of long‐term TC behaviour need to account for these climatic influences. Incorporation of these observations, and the many more needed, is important for understanding the future behaviour of TCs. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tropical forcing of North Pacific intermediate water distribution during Late Quaternary rapid climate change?

Evidence is presented demonstrating intermediate water (∼500 m) temperature variability at ODP Hole 893A in Santa Barbara Basin during submillennial climate change (11–60 ka). Benthic δ¹⁸O oscillations are considered to result primarily from shifts in intermediate water temperature at the site. Detailed comparison of both benthic and planktonic records from the basin provide crucial evidence for differing surface and intermediate water mass temporal responses to rapid climate change. Gradual warming of intermediate water compared to abrupt cooling suggests mechanistic differences between processes controlling North Pacific Intermediate Water expansion and contraction relative to ‘southern component’ intermediate waters. Comparisons suggest intermediate water warming preceded (by 60–200 years) the most rapid interval of surface warming inferred to be associated with North Pacific atmospheric reorganization. Tropical forcing of sea level anomalies in the eastern Pacific via trade wind strength may control California Undercurrent flow (300–500 m) and be the cause of early intermediate water warming in Santa Barbara Basin.     

Humid Pleistocene−Holocene transition and early Holocene in sub‐tropical northern Mexico and possible Gulf of California forcing

A new geochemical record from the paaleolake Santiaguillo documents the hydrological variability of sub‐tropical northern Mexico over the last ～14 cal. ka. Summer‐season runoff, lake water salinity and deposition of sediments by aeolian activity were reconstructed from concentrations of K, Ca and Zr/K in bulk sediments. More‐than‐average runoff during c. 12.3–9.3 cal. ka BP represented an interval of enhanced summer precipitation. Arid intervals of c. 14–12.3 cal. ka BP and c. 6–4.3 cal. ka BP were characterized by average and more‐than‐average aeolian activity. Comparison with proxy records of summer as well as winter precipitation from tropical and sub‐tropical North America and sea surface temperatures from the Atlantic and Pacific provides insight into the source of moisture and possible forcing. The wet Pleistocene?Holocene transition and early Holocene was contemporary with warmer conditions in the Gulf of California. We suggest that the Atlantic had minimal influence on the summer precipitation of the western part of sub‐tropical northern Mexico and that the source of moisture was dominantly Pacific.     

全球海平面变化研究新进展

综述了近10年来海平面变化研究的主要成果,分析了影响海平面变化的主要因素,探讨了海平面变化研究中存在的一些问题。结果表明：①近10年全球平均海平面上升幅度大约为2.5~3.84 mm/a,热膨胀是引起海平面上升的主因;②海平面变化具有时空分布差异——西太平洋和东印度洋地区上升最快,其值高出全球平均值的10倍以上;大西洋与太平洋30~40°N地区季节变化最明显;③将海平面季节高值时段与北半球热带气旋出现时间进行对比,发现每年8~10月份,在20~50°N的西北太平洋与北大西洋沿岸地区出现海平面最高值与热带气旋相叠加的全球危险海岸带,该地带包括中国大陆东部、日本沿海地区、美国东部海岸带、墨西哥湾地区和加勒比海地区。     

Faunal and oxygen isotopic paleotemperatures and the amplitude of glacial/interglacial temperature changes in the Equatorial Atlantic,Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico

The amplitude of glacial/interglacial temperature changes in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and Equatorial Atlantic, and a generalized faunal paleotemperature curve for the Caribbean Sea for the last 125,000 yr have been determined by using a quantitative micropaleontological model. This model is based on a direct comparison of Pleistocene foraminiferal assemblages with Recent ones whose geographic distribution have been correlated with modern ocean surface temperatures. The results of such an analysis indicate a glacial/interglacial surface temperature variation of 5°C for the Caribbean Sen, 3–4°C for the Gulf of Mexico, and 5–6°C for equatorial waters off the west coast of Africa. Generalized paleotemperature curves derived from faunal and isotope data for the Caribbean indicate nearly identical temperature oscillations during the last 125,000 yr.     

A Comparative Analysis of Main Modes of Global-scale Sea Surface Temperature on Multiple Time Scale

Using the HadISST data from 1880 to 2009, removed the signal of global warming in one hundred year. The results show that, there were the significant interannual and interdecadal oscillation signal at the eastern Pacific and north Pacific and north Atlantic, especially the decadal oscillation in the south of eastern equatorial Pacific cannot be ignored. We found there are three major global-scale signals by using the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis on global sea surface temperature, the first mode is (ENSO-like/PDO-like) Pacific pattern, the second mode is (AMO-like) the north Atlantic pattern and the third mode is (ENSO Modoki-like/CP ENSO-like) Center Pacific Ocean pattern. In particular, the third mode is the performance of Center Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the global mode. There are significant signals in interannual and interdecadal scales, in the unfiltered conditions, the three modes can explain 34% of total variance contribution. Above the interdecadal scale, the sum of three modes variance contribution is 61%. In various time scales, the three signals and the average global temperature has a connection, especially the influence of the first and second mode is the most important, in the decadal scale, the sum of the first and second modal variance contribution is 50%. Since 2005, there is no significant signal of global warming may be associated with the simultaneous decline of the first two modes.     

North Indian Ocean warming and sea level rise in an OGCM

The variability in the long-term temperature and sea level over the north Indian Ocean during the period 1958–2000 has been investigated using an Ocean General Circulation Model, Modular Ocean Model version 4. The model simulated fields are compared with the sea level observations from tide-gauges, Topex/Poseidon (T/P) satellite, in situ temperature profile observations from WHOI moored buoy and sea surface temperature (SST) observations from DS1, DS3 and DS4 moored buoys. It is seen that the long (6–8 years) warming episodes in the SST over the north Indian Ocean are followed by short episodes (2–3 years) of cooling. The model temperature and sea level anomaly over the north Indian Ocean show an increasing trend in the study period. The model thermocline heat content per unit area shows a linear increasing trend (from 1958–2000) at the rate of 0.0018 × 10¹¹ J/m² per year for north Indian Ocean. North Indian Ocean sea level anomaly (thermosteric component) also shows a linear increasing trend of 0.31 mm/year during 1958–2000.     

Interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity along the Pacific coast of North America

The interannual variability of near-coastal eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones is described using a data set of cyclone tracks constructed from U.S. and Mexican oceanic and atmospheric reports for the period 1951-2006. Near-coastal cyclone counts are enumerated monthly, allowing us to distinguish interannual variability during different phases of the May-November tropical cyclone season. In these data more tropical cyclones affect the Pacific coast in May-July, the early months of the tropical cyclone season, during La Niña years, when equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are anomalously cool, than during El Niño years. The difference in early season cyclone counts between La Niña and El Niño years was particularly pronounced during the mid-twentieth century epoch when cool equatorial temperatures were enhanced as described by an index of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Composite maps from years with high and low near-coastal cyclone counts show that the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific are consistent with preferential steering of tropical cyclones northeastward toward the west coast of Mexico.     

Identification of sources and groundwater recharge zones from hydrochemistry and stable isotopes of an agriculture-based paleo-lacustrine basin of drought-prone northeast Mexico

Over exploitation for agricultural activities and consumption has depleted the groundwater resources of drought-prone northeast Mexico. Major ion concentrations along with δ¹⁸O_H2O, δ²H_H2O and d-excess values of shallow groundwater from the Cieneguilla Basin (near Tula) located at a distance of ∼200 km from coast of the Gulf of Mexico helped to contribute new data about drought vulnerability in this region through identification of the moisture source and groundwater recharge zone. Different degrees of rock-water interaction through gypsum, anhydrite and halite dissolutions and minor silicate weathering controlled the hydrochemistry. Stable isotopes yielded a least square regression and slope similar to the local as well as global meteoric water lines, indicating minimal effect of evaporation during the recharge as well as in the subsoil. Isotopic fractionations along with a digital elevation model demarcated the recharge zones at north and east of the basin, with altitudinal difference of ≥1000 m, and indicated that the recharge occurred through warm season moisture sourced from the Gulf of Mexico. Less frequent landfalling of tropical storms caused by warmer sea surface temperature, however, has reduced this rainfall over the last few decades. If the trend of global warming continues unabated, the depleted groundwater resources would trigger reduction in agricultural activities in this drought-prone region and lead to enhanced socio-economic challenges.     

Progresses and Prospects for North Tropical Atlantic Mode Interannual Variability

North Tropical Atlantic Mode (NTAM) is the leading variability of the boreal spring sea surface temperature anomalies over the North Tropical Atlantic at interannual timescale. It is also known as the northern pole of the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). NTAM shows significant impact on the shift of Intertropical Convergence Zone, the precipitation of the surrounding countries, the quasi-biennial oscillation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the recent global warming hiatus. Despite its distinct influence on global climate, NTAM has not received equivalent attention as other tropical variability (e.g. ENSO). By revisiting previous studies, this paper summarized the triggers and mechanisms responsible for the evolution and development of NTAM, including remote forcing from ENSO, south tropical Atlantic as well as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), local air-sea coupling, and the interactions among different triggers. Also, this paper detailedly introduced the ability of CMIP5 (The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) model simulation. The prominent model biases over the equatorial Atlantic significantly limit the study of NTAM. Finally, a future prospective of NTAM interannual variability was presented.     

大尺度大气环流变化及其对北半球冬季温度的影响

近半个世纪来的全球温度的变化表现出有很大的空间尺度和显著的线性趋势 ,许多研究强调温室效应对全球气候变暖的影响。文中的研究表明大尺度的大气环流的变化对北半球冬季温度有很重要的影响。最近一些学者侧重北大西洋涛动 (NAO)和北太平洋涛动 (NPO)的作用 ,而NAO和NPO都是行星尺度大气环流在区域的特殊表现形式。全球西风环流系统可能具有根本性的作用。当西风环流处于高指数时期时 ,则温度偏高 ;当处于低指数时期时 ,则温度偏低。西风强度及NAO和NPO能解释近 50年来北半球冬季温度变化方差的 2 7 2 %。     

Late Holocene (0–2.4 ka BP) surface water temperature and salinity variability, Feni Drift, NE Atlantic Ocean

Planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca ratios and oxygen isotopic compositions of a spliced sediment record from Feni Drift, NE Atlantic Ocean (box core M200309 and piston core ENAM9606) trace late Holocene sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity changes over the past 2400 years. At this location, the variability of SST and oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ¹⁸O_w) reflects variable northward advection of warm and saline surface waters, which appears linked to climate variability over the adjacent European continent. Our records reveal a general long-term cooling trend. Superimposed on this overall trend, partly higher temperatures and salinities from 180 to 560 AD and 750 to 1160 AD may be ascribed to the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods, respectively. Subsequently, our record displays highly variable surface water conditions; the main Little Ice Age SST minimum is restricted to the 15th and 16th centuries AD. Pervasive multidecadal- to centennial-scale variability throughout the sedimentary proxy records can be partly attributed to solar forcing and/or variable heat extraction from the surface ocean caused by shifts in the prevailing state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). High salinities in the 17th and 18th centuries are considered to reflect tropical anomalies linked to a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, propagating across the North Atlantic Ocean.     

A one hundred and seventeen year coastal water temperature record from Woods Hole,Massachusetts

We have compiled what we believe is the longest coherent coastal sea surface temperature record in North America. Near-surface water temperature measurements have been made almost daily at Great Harbon, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, since 1886 with remarkably few gaps. The record shows that there was no significant trend in water temperature at this site for the first 60 yr of observation. There was some cooling during the 1960s that was followed by a significant warming from 1970–2002 at a rate of 0.04°C yr^?1. During the 1990s annual mean temperatures averaged approximately 1.2°C warmer than they had been on average between 1890 and 1970; winter (December, January, and February) temperatures were 1.7°C warmer and summer (June, July, and August) temperatures were 1.0°C warmer. There has not been a statistically significant decrease in the annual number of winter days below 1°C or an increase in the annual number of winter days above 5°C. The number of summer days each year with water temperature above 21°C has not increased significantly. The dates of first observations of 10°C and 20°C water in the spring have not changed sufficiently to be statistically significant. There is a weak positive correlation between annual and winter water temperature and the annual and winter North Atlantic Oscillation index, respectively, during the period of record.     

Decadal Prediction Skill of the Global Sea Surface Temperature in the BCC_CSM1.1 Climate Model

This study assesses retrospective decadal prediction skill of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability in initialized climate prediction experiments (INT) with the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.1). Ensemble forecasts were evaluated using observations, and compared to an ensemble of uninitialized simulations (NoINT). The results show as follows: ①The warming trend of global mean SST simulated by the INT runs is closer to the observation than that in the NoINT runs.②The INT runs show high SST prediction skills over broad regions of tropical Atlantic, western tropical Pacific and tropical Indian Oceans. ③ In the North Pacific and the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean, the prediction skills are very weak, and there are few improvements coming from the initialization in the INT runs. ④ In the southern Indian Ocean, the prediction skills of the INT runs are significantly larger than that of the NoINT runs, with the maximum skill at the 3~6 and 4~7 years lead time. The above-mentioned conclusions are similar to the results of other climate models. However, the prediction skill in the North Atlantic Ocean is much lower than that of other models, especially in the subpolar region. The low skills in the Atlantic Ocean may be attributed to the misrepresentation of the lead-lag relationship between the Atlantic meridional heat transport and the SST in the BCC_CSM1.1.