青海省极端气温事件的气候变化特征研究

选用青海省37个气象站点1961-2011年近51 a, 逐日气温(最高、 最低、 平均)资料, 采用国际通用的极端气温指数定义计算了9种极端气温指数, 并分析其主要气候特征.结果表明: 近51 a青海省极端气温呈明显上升趋势, 极端冷指标(霜冻、 结冰日数、 冷夜、 冷昼指数)呈下降趋势, 而极端暖指标(夏天日数、 暖夜、 暖昼指数)呈上升趋势, 且极端冷指标的减少幅度高于极端暖指标的增加幅度.空间分布上, 极端气温指数在全省呈一致的上升(下降)趋势分布.在近51 a的时间尺度上各种极端气温指数都存在多个较明显的周期, 如较短的3~8 a的准周期, 以及13 a、 17 a、 27 a的年代际周期特征.青海省年平均气温与极端气温指数有很高的相关性, 气候变暖突变前后极端气温指数表现出明显差异: 在变暖突变发生后, 霜冻日数、 冷夜指数、 冷昼指数、 结冰日数明显减少, 夏天日数、 暖夜指数及暖昼指数明显增加, 其中相对指数几乎呈倍数显著变化, 表明极端气温指数对气候变暖有很好的响应.     

1961-2012年辽宁省极端气温事件气候变化特征

利用辽宁省52个气象台站逐日平均气温、 最高气温和最低气温数据, 使用国际通用的10种极端气候指数, 研究了1961-2012年辽宁省极端气温事件的气候变化特征. 结果表明: 年平均极端气温事件空间分布存在明显的地区差异. 时间尺度上, 1961-2012年辽宁省年及四季极端暖事件(暖昼日数、 暖夜日数、 夏季日数、 热带夜数和热浪持续指数)呈增加趋势, 极端冷事件(冷昼日数、 冷夜日数、 结冰日数、 霜冻日数和寒潮持续指数)呈减少趋势; 极端暖事件在20世纪90年代中期开始明显增加, 极端冷事件在20世纪80年代末期开始显著减少; 极端暖事件的变化速率要小于极端冷事件. 辽宁省气温日较差有增大的趋势, 极端暖(冷)事件的增加(减少)在秋季(冬季)最为显著. 空间变化上, 极端气温事件在全省基本都呈一致的增加或减少的分布. 多数极端气温事件均存在8 a左右的周期, 检测到的突变的时间大致在20世纪80年代中期到90年代末期. 20世纪80年代末期辽宁省气候变暖后, 极端暖事件和冷事件均有明显的增加和减少.     

Changes in annual and seasonal temperature extremes in the arid region of China, 1960–2010

Daily data of minimum and maximum temperature from 76 meteorological stations for 1960–2010 are used to detect the annual and seasonal variations of temperature extremes in the arid region, China. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen estimator are used to assess the significance of the trend and amount of change, respectively. Fifteen temperature indices are examined. The temperature extremes show patterns consistent with warming, with a large proportion of stations showing statistically significant trends. Warming trends in indices derived from daily minimum temperature are of greater magnitudes than those from maximum temperature, and stations along the Tianshan Mountains have larger trend magnitudes. The decreases in frequency for cold extremes mainly occur in summer and autumn, while warm extremes show significant increases in frequency in autumn and winter. For the arid region as a whole, the occurrence of cold nights and cold days has decreased by ?1.89 and ?0.89 days/decade, respectively, and warm nights and warm days has increased by 2.85 and 1.37 days/decade, respectively. The number of frost days and ice days exhibit significant decreasing trends at the rates of ?3.84 and ?2.07 days/decade. The threshold indices also show statistically significant increasing trends, with the extreme lowest temperatures faster than highest temperatures. The diurnal temperature range has decreased by 0.23 °C/decade, which is in accordance with the more rapid increases in minimum temperature than in maximum temperature. The results of this study will be useful for local human mitigation to alterations in water resources and ecological environment in the arid region of China due to the changes of temperature extremes.     

黄河源区气温变化特征及预估分析

利用黄河源区青海段9个代表性站点1961-2017年逐日气温资料和未来RCP4.5排放情景下的预估数据,分析和预估了黄河源区年平均、年平均最高、年平均最低和极端气温变化特征。结果表明：近57年来年平均最高、年平均、年平均最低气温均呈显著上升趋势且倾向率依次增大。年平均气温和年平均最高气温在1997年存在显著突变。通过分析1961-1997年、1998-2007年以及2008-2017年阶段性变化可知,年平均气温持续上升,年平均最高气温先上升后趋于稳定,而年平均最低气温升温速率在1998-2007年最大,2008-2017年升温速率较1998-2007年有所降低。暖昼日数持续增多,霜冻日数和冰封日数持续减少,冷夜日数在1998-2007年减少速率最低,近10年来减少速率增大。未来33年黄河源区年平均、年平均最高、年平均最低气温和极端暖事件均呈明显的增加趋势,极端冷事件呈减少趋势。对黄河源区过去和未来气温变化规律进行了探讨,将为该区域气温变化对策的制定与实施提供理论依据。     

Analysis of extreme low-temperature events during the warm season in Northeast China

The trends of global warming are increasingly significant, especially in the middle and high latitude regions of the northern hemisphere, where the impact of climate change on extreme events is becoming more noticeable. Northeast China is located in a high latitude region and is sensitive to climate change. Extreme minimum temperatures causing cold damage during the warm season is a major type of agro-meteorological disaster in Northeast China, which causes serious reductions in crop yield. In this paper, we analyzed the temporal and spatial trends in the frequency of extreme minimum temperatures during the warm season (from May to September) during 1956–2005 in Northeast China. Abrupt climatic changes were identified using the Mann–Kendall test. The results show that the frequency of extreme minimum temperature days during the warm season in Northeast China decreases significantly from 1956 to 2005 with a background of climate warming. The highest number of extreme minimum temperature days occurred in the 1970s and 1980s, and there was an abrupt climatic change in 1993. The spatial analysis identified that the north and southeast of the region experienced a larger decrease in the number of extreme low temperature days than the west and south of the region. Rice, sorghum, corn, and soybeans are most vulnerable to cold damage. In severe low temperature years, the average crop yield was reduced by 15.2% in Northeast China.     

1962 - 2013年新疆阿勒泰极端气温时空变化特征

基于新疆阿勒泰地区5个国家气象站的逐日平均气温、 最高气温和最低气温气象数据, 利用一元线性回归、 9 a滑动平均等方法分析了该地区近52年极端气温的时空变化规律。结果表明： （1）阿勒泰地区平均气温、 平均最高气温、 平均最低气温均显著上升, 上升速率为0.40、 0.29、 0.58 ℃·（10a）^-1; 秋、 冬季上升幅度最大。（2）极端最高气温、 最低气温极高值、 暖昼、 暖夜以不同的速率上升（增加）, 分别为0.19 ℃·（10a）^-1、 0.58 ℃·（10a）^-1、 1.45 d·（10a）^-1、 3.37 d·（10a）^-1。气温日较差以-0.29 ℃·（10a）^-1的速率下降; 生长季长度呈上升趋势, 增加速率为3.31 d·（10a）^-1。暖日、 暖夜在四季均呈上升趋势。除极端最高气温和生长季长度外, 其他指数均有50%以上的站点呈上升趋势。（3）极端最低气温、 最高气温极低值分别以0.68、 0.48 ℃·（10a）^-1的速率上升; 冷昼、 冷夜、 冰日、 霜日均呈下降趋势, 减少速率分别为-1.57、 -3.69、 -1.79、 -4.40 d·（10a）^-1。仅冷夜、 霜日两个指数在所有站点显著下降。（4）冷指数的减小幅度大于暖指数的增大幅度, 夜指数的减小幅度大于昼指数的增大幅度。     

Changes in annual temperature extremes in the Carpathians since AD 1961

The Carpathian Mountains region cover areas from seven countries of central and southeastern Europe, the mountain chain having major regional influences on the temperate climate, specific to latitudes between 43°N and 49°N. In order to identify changes in the annual temperature extremes, the Mann–Kendall nonparametric trend test has been applied to several thermal indices, recommended by the expert team on climate change detection and indices. The indices were computed from gridded daily datasets of minimum and maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km), available online within the framework of the project CarpatClim (climate of the Carpathian region) for the period 1961–2010. The results show decreasing trends in cold-related indices, especially in the number of frost days, and increasing trends in warm-related ones. The trend patterns are consistent over the region, i.e., there are no mixed trends for a given index. Regional differences in climate extreme trends within the Carpathian region are related to altitude, rather than latitude. The number of summer days is increasing over the entire area, while the number of tropical nights presents upward trends mainly at lower elevations. The Warm Spell Duration Index presents upward trends over 60 % of the region. The (annual) East Atlantic pattern shows strong correlations with the warm-related indices. Our results are in agreement with previous temperature-related studies in the region.     

大尺度驱动因子对新疆极端冷事件的单一与耦合影响

全球变暖背景下,偶发极端冷事件产生的重大灾害损失不容忽视。探究区域极端冷事件的大尺度驱动因子的耦合影响,对预估和应对气候变化产生的极端灾害具有重要意义。本文基于新疆1961—2016年53个气象站点的逐日气温资料,通过反距离加权等方法对极端冷事件的时空演变特征进行分析;利用交叉小波变换对6个极端冷指数与大尺度驱动因子——北极涛动（AO）、北大西洋涛动（NAO）和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）进行多尺度分析;使用参数假设检验对大尺度驱动因子单一/耦合模态下的冷指数变化进行统计学显著性检验,随后对大尺度环流机制进行距平合成分析。结果表明：年均冷指数在时间尺度上均有显著性变化,新疆气温有明显的变暖趋势;空间尺度上冷指数在北疆、东疆和伊犁河谷地区的变化幅度远大于其他区域,存在空间差异性。AO、NAO与冷指数的相关性较强,ENSO与冷指数相关关系最弱但存在明显的时滞效应,大尺度驱动因子对极端冷指数的总体影响程度为AO>NAO>ENSO。单一模态下,极端冷事件在AO负位相、NAO负位相和La Ni?a事件期间易发生。耦合模态下,EI Ni?o-AO正位相和EI Ni?o-NAO正位相配置下冷日日数偏多;EI Ni?o-NAO负位相配置时极端低温值更小;La Ni?a-AO负位相和La Ni?a-NAO正位相时极端冷事件发生的可能性更大。EI Ni?o（La Ni?a）事件对AO（NAO）有一定的调制作用。新疆极端冷事件更易出现在La Ni?a-AO负位相、La Ni?a-NAO正位相时期,成因与亚欧大陆中高纬度位势异常导致冷空气路径偏西、乌拉尔阻塞加强与偏北气流影响新疆有关。     

Climate extreme and its linkage to regional drought over Idaho, USA

To investigate consequences of climate extreme and variability on agriculture and regional water resource, twenty-seven climatic indices of temperature and precipitation over Idaho, USA, were computed. Precipitation, mean temperature and maximum temperature, self-calibrated Palmer Drought Index and Standardized Precipitation Index for 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month time scales were used to identify spatial and temporal distribution of climatic extreme and variability as well as drought frequency and magnitude. Seven oceanic indices were also used to detect teleconnections between climatic indices and regional droughts. The analyses were conducted for 56 meteorological stations, during 1962?C2008, characterized by a long-term and high-quality data set. The result indicates that decreasing trends and increasing trends are identified for precipitation and temperature, respectively. Consequently, it appears that frost and ice days dwindle as growing season (May?CAugust) length, tropical nights and summer days increase. Given current climate conditions, the results also imply that these trends will continue in the future possibly driven by uncertain climate variability. We anticipate that these indices explained by teleconnections will improve drought-forecasting capability in this region.     

近40年中国平均气候与极值气候变化的概述

随着中国气象局对近50年来逐日气象观测资料的释放,人们从不同的角度对中国平均气候和极端气候的分布特征有了更多的了解.从目前研究的结果来看,这些认识需要有一个集成,即需要有一个总体的归纳和解释.通过中国近40年来的温度极值和降水极值事件的分析认识到全球增暖和区域环流异常决定着气候极值事件的分布格局.与全球增暖相联系的是:我国微量降水在空间上表现为一致的减少趋势,我国北方寒潮事件显著减少,冷夜和冷日的减少与暖夜和暖日的增多并存,以及极端强降水有增多的趋势.与东亚季风气流和西风带气流异常对应的我国有效降水在区域分布上发生了显著变化,东部季风区中的"北涝南旱"从1970年代末转型为"南涝北旱",与华南的偏干一起形成了东部季风区降水从华南、长江到华北的"-、 、-"异常分布型,但华南在1991年出现了转湿的突变;东北和西北先后从1983年和1987年前后转为暖湿气候.极端温度和极端降水趋势的空间分布与平均温度和平均降水趋势的空间分布一致.     

Statistically downscaled climate change projections of surface temperature over Northern Italy for the periods 2021–2050 and 2070–2099

Future changes of seasonal minimum and maximum temperature over Northern Italy are assessed for the periods 2021–2050 and 2070–2099 against 1961–1990. A statistical downscaling technique, applied to the ENSEMBLES-Stream1 and CIRCE global simulations (A1B scenario), is used to reach this objective. The statistical scheme consists of a multivariate regression based on Canonical Correlation Analysis. The set-up of the statistical scheme is done using large-scale fields (predictors) derived from ERA40 reanalysis and seasonal mean minimum and maximum temperature (predictands) derived from observational data at around 75 stations, distributed over Northern Italy, over the period 1960–2002. A similar technique is also applied to the number of frost days and ice days at a reduced number of stations in order to construct projections on change of the selected extreme temperature indices for the two future periods. The evaluation of future projections for these extreme indices is relevant due to its impacts on transports, health, and agriculture. The downscaling scheme constructed using observed data is then applied to large-scale fields simulated by global models (A1B scenario), in order to construct scenarios on future change of seasonal temperature, mean and extreme indices, at local scale. The significance of changes is tested from the statistical point of view. The results show that significant increases could be expected to occur under scenario conditions in both minimum and maximum temperature, associated with a decrease in the number of frost and ice days in both periods and more intense to the end of the century.     

Changes of extreme temperature events in Three Gorges area,China

Meteorological data and heat stress indices from 1958 to 2007 in the Three Gorges area were investigated in this study. It is found that there is a (1) mild augmentation of the diurnal temperature range in the region (2) antithetical trends in mean\maximum\minimum temperatures, indicated by warmer winters and slightly cooler summers and (3) declining linear trends of the number of (very) hot days and annual frequencies of (long) heat waves, despite rising frequencies of (very) hot days and annual short heat waves. A U-shape was detected for all the climatic indices, with low values occurring mostly in the 1980s. However, spatial variations exist. Decreasing trends of hot days and frequency of heat waves were more evident in areas like Shapingba, where high annual temperatures were recorded. The finding also suggests a positive impact of the subtropical high on high temperatures and extreme temperature events.     

1961—2005年河西走廊东部极端气温事件变化

利用1961—2005年河西走廊东部五站的逐日气温资料,通过百分位法定义了不同台站的逐日极端高、低温阈值,研究了河西走廊东部近45a来极端气温事件变化的空间分布以及时间变化特征.结果表明:在空间分布上,河西走廊东部极端最高气温总阈值民勤出现了暖中心,乌鞘岭出现了冷中心;极端最低气温总阈值暖中心出现在武威,冷中心出现在乌鞘岭;极端最高、低气温空间分布与其对应阈值的空间分布类似;河西走廊东部极端低温频数南北部都呈现减少趋势,而极端高温频数在南部古浪和北部靠近沙漠区的民勤呈现减少趋势,其它地区为增加趋势.时间变化上,河西走廊东部极端最高、低气温总体都呈增温趋势,增温幅度极端最低气温比极端最高气温明显;极端最高气温频数总体呈略增加趋势,极端最低气温频数呈明显的减少趋势;极端最高、低气温和极端最高、低气温频数都是6～7a和9～10a周期反映明显;极端最高、低气温增温以及极端高温频数增加和极端低温频数减少都发生了突变现象.     

Extreme temperature scenarios in Mexicali,Mexico under climate change conditions

Extreme weather events can have severe consequences for the population and the environment. Therefore, in this study a temporal trend of annual temperatures was built with a time series from 1950 to 2010 for Mexicali, Mexico, and estimates of 5- to 100-year return periods are provided by modeling of summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures. A non-parametric Kendall’s tau test and the Sen’s slope estimator were used to compute trends. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied to the approximation of block maxima and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to values over a predetermined threshold. Due to the non-stationary characteristic of the series of temperature values, the temporal trend was included as a covariable in the location parameter and substantial improvements were observed, particularly with the extreme minimum temperature, compared to that obtained with the GEV with no covariable and with the GPD. A positive and significant statistically trend in both summer maximum temperature and winter minimum temperature was found. By the end of 21st century the extreme maximum temperature could be 2 to 3 °C higher than current, and the winter could be less severe, as the probabilistic model suggests increases of 7 to 9 °C in the extreme minimum temperature with respect to the base period. The foreseeable consequences on Mexicali city are discussed.     

辽宁省气温变化趋势中的城市化影响研究

利用1961 - 2017年逐日平均、 最低、 最高气温资料、 DMSP/OLS卫星夜晚灯光数据, 定量分析了城市化对辽宁省平均气温和极端气温指数趋势变化的影响。研究表明： 辽宁省气温呈显著增加趋势, 城市站增温速率明显快于乡村站; 平均最低气温增温率最快, 平均气温次之, 平均最高气温相对较慢; 四季增温速率依次为： 冬季>春季>秋季>夏季; 最低气温的城市化影响贡献率最大, 平均气温次之, 最高气温相对较小; 城市站最低气温的明显升高和最高气温增幅较小, 必将导致日较差明显减小和日较差城市化影响贡献率的增大。城市化加剧了辽宁省极端低温事件的显著减少和极端高温事件的明显增加, 城市化对极端气温事件影响显著。与冷事件有关的极端气温指数的城市化影响均为负值, 与暖事件有关的均为正值; 相对指数的城市化影响贡献率较大, 持续时间指数次之, 除气温日较差以外的绝对指数相对较小。基于最低气温的极端气温指数比基于最高气温的极端气温指数受城市化影响更显著, 其原因可能是城市热岛强度的非对称性以及城市站和乡村站气溶胶浓度之间的差异, 导致最高气温的增加没有最低气温的增加显著。     

Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

This study investigates the variability of extreme rainfall (temperature) events in the twenty-first century based on 18 (24)-member multimodel simulations of models participating in phase 5 of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The study employed extreme indices defined by the WMO’s Experts Team on Climate Change Detection Indices, under two radiative forcing scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two 30-year time periods, mid- (2021–2050) and end (2071–2100) of the twenty-first century, are considered for investigation of extremes, relative to the baseline period (1961–1990). Mann–Kendall test statistic and Sen’s slope estimator are used to investigate trend. Temperature shows a remarkable increase with an increase in radiative forcing. A sharp augmentation in temperature is projected towards the end of the twenty-first century. There will be almost zero cool days and cold nights by the end of the century. Very wet and extremely very wet days increase, especially over Uganda and western Kenya. Variation in maximum 1-day precipitation (R × 1 day) and maximum 5-day precipitation amount shows a remarkable increase in variance towards the end of the twenty-first century. Although the results are based on relatively coarse resolution data, they give likely conditions that can be utilized in long-term planning and be relied on in advanced studies.     

Analysis of the Change of Comfort Index over Yunnan Province Based on Effective Temperature

The Effective Temperature (ET), which considers the aggregate effects of temperature, relative humidity and wind speed to describe the human thermal sensitivity, was employed to investigate the change of thermal conditions over Yunnan Province in China during the period of 1961-2014. The observation data used in the study is the high resolution gridded daily scale dataset CN05.1. The results show that over the northern part of the Province with high elevation mountains, colder temperature, lower relative humidity and stronger wind speed prevail, which leads to the lower ET values there. Opposite conditions are found over the low elevation areas in the south. An overall warming and decrease of both relative humidity and wind speed are observed in the latest decades in the whole Province, resulting in the general increase of ET over the region. Analysis based on the different assessment scales of ET shows that, more cold/extreme cold days and cool days exist in the north, while the cool days and comfortable days are mainly distributed in the south. General decrease of cold/extreme cold days is found over the region. An increase of the cool days in the north and decrease of it in the south, significant increase of the comfortable days, and increase of warm and hot/extreme hot days over portions in the south are reported. More climatic favorable days are found in all of the four seasons. Within the climate change context, the significant reduction of cold/extreme cold days and increase of climatic favorable days indicate that the climate in Yunnan Province so far tends to be more favorable for the human beings.     

Recent trends in pre-monsoon daily temperature extremes over India

Extreme climate and weather events are increasingly being recognized as key aspects of climate change. Pre-monsoon season (March–May) is the hottest part of the year over almost the entire South Asian region, in which hot weather extremes including heat waves are recurring natural hazards having serious societal impacts, particularly on human health. In the present paper, recent trends in extreme temperature events for the pre-monsoon season have been studied using daily data on maximum and minimum temperatures over a well-distributed network of 121 stations for the period 1970–2005. For this purpose, time series of extreme temperature events have been constructed for India as a whole and seven homogeneous regions, viz., Western Himalaya (WH), Northwest (NW), Northeast (NE), North Central (NC), East coast (EC), West coast (WC) and Interior Peninsula (IP).     

1971-2012年珠穆朗玛峰地区极端降水事件变化研究

利用西藏珠穆朗玛峰地区5个气象站点1971-2012年逐日降水量资料,采用滑动平均、线性回归、Mann-Kendall非参数检验和Morlet小波分析等方法,分析了珠穆朗玛峰地区极端降水事件的时空变化特征. 结果表明：1971-2012年42 a来,珠穆朗玛峰地区大部分极端降水指数呈现出自东向西逐渐增大的空间分布格局, 连续干旱日数、连续湿日和降水强度表现为增加趋势,其他极端降水指数趋于减少. 其中,强降水量、极强降水量和年降水总量减幅较大,分别为-5.74 mm·（10a）^-1、-1.20 mm·（10a）^-1和-5.32 mm·（10a）^-1,在喜马拉雅山南坡的聂拉木站表现的最为明显. 大部分极端降水指数在21世纪最初的10 a减幅最大,在30 a际尺度上也表现为减少趋势. 除连续干旱日数外,极端降水与年降水总量关系密切. 各项极端降水指数都存在3～4 a显著周期,也存在10 a、12 a和15 a的周期. 在时间转折上,各项极端降水指数均未发生气候突变.     

乌鞘岭是甘肃气候转型变化的分界线吗?

基于甘肃省及周边地区46个气象站点的气温和降水年值、月值数据,对数据进行均一化检验和订正后,采用气候倾向率法、Mann-Kendall 非参数检验法对甘肃近50a气候变化时空特征进行了分析。结果表明：甘肃省平均气温、平均最低气温、平均最高气温、极端最高气温、极端最低气温均升温明显,其中以最低气温升温最为显著。气温的季节变化空间差异较大,空间上四季最低气温和极端最低气温升温最显著,春、冬季平均最低气温升温最显著;夏、秋季极端最低气温升温最为显著。降水变化的区域差异大,降水气候倾向率最小值达-22.2mm·（10a）^-1,最大值14.1 mm·（10a）^-1,乌鞘岭以东表现为减少趋势,以西增加。河西地区气温突变时间为1986年,早于河东气温突变时间（1993年）。甘肃气候变化时空差异明显,乌鞘岭是近50a甘肃气候转型分异的一条重要分界线。