Best optimizer selection for predicting bushfire occurrences using deep learning

Natural Hazards - Natural disasters like bushfires pose a catastrophic threat to the Australia and the world’s territorial areas. This fire spreads in a wide area within seconds, and...     

Spatially enabled bushfire recovery

Over the last decade growth in spatial information use for disaster management has been considerable. Maps and spatial data are now recognized as critical elements in each of the four phases of disaster management: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. The use of spatial information to support the phases of mitigation, preparedness and response to bushfires is widely understood. Less attention, however, has been given to the role of spatial information in the recovery. Moreover, the application of the spatially enabled society concept to bushfire recovery has not been explored. This paper explores the role that spatial information plays and could play in the recovery phase of a bushfire disaster. The bushfires in Victoria, Australia that took place during February 2009 are used as the primary case study. It is found that: Spatial information for recovery requires a pre-existing infrastructure; Spatial capacity must be developed across agencies dealing with recovery; Spatially enabled address and parcel information are the key dataset required to support all recovery tasks; Spatial integration of bushfire datasets (spread and intensity) require linking with planning regimes, and Spatial information that is volunteered could be incorporated into recovery activities.     

El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Related Probabilities of Fatalities from Natural Perils in Australia

The interannual variability of flood, bushfire andheatwave fatality data for eastern Australia duringthe period 1876–1991 was analysed with respect to thephase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and the associated values of the Southern OscillationIndex (SOI). Heatwaves were found to be the mostserious peril in terms of the total number offatalities, while floods ranked first in the fatalityevent day statistics. None of the three monthly(absolute value) fatality data sets showed significantcorrelations with the corresponding values of the SOI,while the correlation analysis of annual (July toJune) data led to significant correlation coefficientsof 0.5 for floods and -0.3 for bushfires. AdditionalSOI value-related classification of the standardisedfatality event days into several ENSO categoriesconfirmed the correlation trends by showing anincrease (decrease) in the standardised bushfire(flood) fatality event day frequencies with increasingvalues of the SOI. In contrast to that, thestandardised heatwave fatality data showed aninconclusive distribution pattern, which hints at theinfluence of other possible factors (such as airpollution) on heatwave-related fatality numbers.The results of a risk assessment analysis have shownthat the probability of reaching the mean annualnumber of flood-fatality event days is roughly fourtimes higher during La Niña seasons (80%) thanthe corresponding probability associated with ElNiño periods (18%). The correspondingprobabilities associated with the mean bushfire andheatwave fatality event days displayed a reversedpattern, with the probabilities of El Niño-relatedyears being roughly twice as high as those associatedwith La Niña seasons (70% and 30% for bushfires,and 60% and 25% for heatwaves, respectively).Further probability calculations performed on thetotals of fatalities from all three perils identifiedthe La Niña years as potentially the mostdangerous in terms of suffering fatalities from theseperils. Furthermore, they highlighted the significantdifferences between the means of fatality event daynumbers recorded during years of extreme SOI values(9.8 for La Niña, and 9.1 for El Niño seasons)and those marked by near-zero SOI values (6.6). Themajor reason for the increase in risk associated withextreme ENSO phases was the higher variability ofthese perils during the respective seasons.     

Typology of Natural Hazards and Assessment of Associated Risks in the Mount Bambouto Caldera (Cameroon Line,West Cameroon)

Abstract: Mount Bambouto is a polygenic stratovolcano of the Cameroon Volcanic Line, built between 21?Ma and 4.5?Ma. It is situated approximately 200?km NE of Mount Cameroon, between 09°55′ and 10°15′ longitude east and, 05°25′ and 05°50′ latitude north. The volcano covers an area of 500?km2 and culminates at 2740?m at Mélétan dome and bears a collapsed caldera at the summit (13?×?8?km). Mount Bambouto is characterized by several natural hazards of different origins: meteorological, such as landslides and rock falls; anthropogenic, such as bushfires, tribal wars and deforestation; and volcanological, such as volcanic eruption. The thematic map shows that 55–60% of the caldera has high probability of occurrence of mass movement. The caldera has a high population density (3000 inhabitants), which increases the level of risk, evaluated at approximately $US3.8 million for patrimony, 3000 civilian deaths and destruction of biodiversity.     

Knowing wildfire risk: Scientific interactions with risk mitigation policy and practice in Victoria,Australia

Over the past decade, major landscape wildfires (or ‘bushfires’ in Australia) in fire-prone countries have illustrated the seriousness of this global environmental problem. This natural hazard presents a complex mesh of dynamic factors for those seeking to reduce or manage its costs, as ignitions, hazard behaviour, and the reactions of different human and ecological communities during and after hazard events are all extremely uncertain. But while those at risk of wildfire have been subject to significant research, the social dimensions of its management, including the role of science, have received little attention. This paper reports on a case study of the Barwon-Otway area of Victoria in Australia, a high wildfire risk area that has recently been a pilot site for a new risk mitigation strategy utilising the wildfire simulation model PHOENIX RapidFire. Against simple equations between ‘more science’ and ‘less uncertainty,’ this paper presents results from interviews and a workshop with practitioners to investigate how scientific research interacts with and informs both wildfire policy and practice. We suggest that attending to cultural and social specificities of the application of any technical innovation—such as next generation modelling—raises questions for future research about the roles of narrative, performance, and other knowledges in the sedimentation of science.     

Bushfire and everyday life: Examining the awareness-action ‘gap’ in changing rural landscapes

In this paper we use the notion of ‘everyday life’ to critically examine an apparent ‘gap’ between bushfire risk awareness and preparedness amongst diverse landholders in rural landscapes affected by amenity-led in-migration in southeast Australia. Landholders were found to bring their own agency to bushfire preparedness in the relationships between everyday procedures, dilemmas, and tradeoffs. Consequently, regardless of landholders’ awareness levels, attitudes towards bushfire and natural resource management influence if, how, and to what extent landowners prepare for bushfires. We argue that not only is the ‘gap’ complex but also paradoxical in that it is both evident in, and constituted by, landholder attitudes and action and simultaneously dissolved in their practices and decision-making in everyday life. Three dilemmas of everyday life in particular were found to underpin these attitudes: costs (in terms of monetary and time values), gender roles, and priorities. Using a mixed-methods research approach, this simultaneous cultural construction and material nature of bushfire in everyday life is mapped out through landholders’ narratives and actions that embody living with fire on the land. The place of bushfire in landholders’ everyday life has direct relevance to recent international discussions of the vulnerability of the growing number of people living in bushfire-prone rural-urban interface areas.     

Seasonal changes in stable carbon isotopic composition of n-alkanes in the marine aerosols from the western North Pacific: Implications for the source and atmospheric transport

To constrain seasonal changes in the long-range atmospheric transport of land-derived lipid biomarker compounds, we investigated the compound-specific stable isotopic composition of marine aerosol n-alkanes collected from 1990 to 1993 at a remote island, Chichi-Jima (27°04′N, 142°13′E), in the western North Pacific. Compound-specific isotope analysis revealed, in particular, strong seasonal changes in the δ¹³C values of the C₂₉ and C₃₁n-alkanes (biomarkers for higher plants). Lighter δ¹³C values were observed in winter (typically −32 to −34‰), with a transition to heavier values in summer (typically −28 to −31‰). Using a mixing equation and typical end members for C₃ and C₄ plants, we found that this is due to relative increases in the contributions from C₄ plants in the summer season. Using backward air-mass trajectory analyses, it was shown that the Asian continent was the major source region for C₃ plant material during winter/spring, whereas Indonesia/Australia and possibly the Americas were the major source regions for C₄ material during the summer/autumn. Also observed was an enhanced atmospheric transport of n-alkanes from C₄ plants in 1991 summer/autumn during a strong El Nino event, which was associated with forest and bushfires in Indonesia and Australia. In addition to providing information on contemporary processes, this study also provides a base for future paleoclimatological work in ocean sediments.     

Thermal and mechanical evolution of the Michigan Basin

We examine the formation of the Michigan Basin in terms of elastic flexure of the lithosphere. The shape of the flexure accurately determines the flexural rigidity of the lithosphere and the lateral extent of the load responsible for the flexure. The amplitude of differential subsidence then gives the magnitude of the load. Gravity anomalies in the southern peninsula of Michigan further restrain the dimensions of the load. We propose a model for the formation of the Michigan Basin involving mantle diapirs. We suggest that the first stage in its evolution was diapiric penetration of the lithosphere by hot asthenospheric mantle rock to the vicinity of the Moho. The heating of the lower crust by these hot rocks caused the transformation of lower crust, meta-stable gabbroic rocks to eclogite. Initially the lighter mantle rocks nearly balanced the heavier eclogite. As the mantle rocks cooled by conduction, the basin subsided under the load of the eclogite. The thermal contraction mechanism is supported by evidence that the flexural rigidity of the lithosphere increases with time. This is the effect of thickening of the elastic lithosphere as cooling progresses.     

MORPHOLOGY AND STRUCTURAL HISTORY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CRIMEA

The Tuak and Sudak anticlinoria located upon the eastern periclinal closure of the Crimean meganticlinorium are complicated by a folding of the higher order. According to their size and morphological structures, the folds are subdivided into several types. The small linear disharmonic folds in the Upper Triassic, Lower- and Middle Jurassic deposits within the cores of the above anticlinoria are followed by an elongated brachy-folding within the Upper Jurassic deposits upon the saddle of the Sudak-Yanyshar anticlinorium. The distribution of individual folding types corresponds to the history of fold formation. It depends on the tectonic movement environments, the physical properties of the rocks and other causes. The study of conditions controlling the formation and development of structural forms is conducted on the basis of a structural-facies method. The increase of sedimentation thicknesses and the replacement of coarse terrigenous materials by finer sediments towards the axial parts of the synclines, are evidence of the fact that the folding development was contemporaneous with sedimentation during a prolonged period. Folding, however, proceeded at irregular times.

The linear folding within the Tavridian shales upon the saddle of the Tuak anticlinal zone developed under conditions of active positive movements during pre-Bajocian stage of folding. In addition to linear folds, elongated brachysynclines appeared within the areno-argillaceous deposits upon the saddle of the Sudak-Yanyshar anticlinal zone during pre-Oxfordian time. A further growth and isolation of individual folds took place in an environment of considerable tectonic movement intensification during the Oxfordian and Kimmeridgian stages. The most energetic folding movements took place during the pre-Tithonian phase of folding. A sharp uplift of the eastern part of the Sudak- Yanyshar anticlinorium saddle called forth the appearance of crescentic, elongated folds. Within the Meganom downwarping folds developed during the Jurassic under conditions of continuous plunging.

The development of the principal structural units is connected with manifestations of deep-seated tectonic processes. The folding located upon the Sudak-Yanyshar anticlinorium saddle is classified as forced folds. The prolonged growth of the folds was accompanied by a forcing up of argillaceous materials into the anticline saddles. The plastic shift of Middle Jurassic clays from under the subsiding synclines toward the continuously eroding anticline saddles, i. e. towards areas of free material outflow, took place under conditions of continuous intensification of the tectonic movement and a continuous increase of load upon the subsiding areas. The supply of plastic material into the anticline saddles began during the Oxfordian stage and continued up to the present. This process proceeds in an environment of further expansion of the Sudak-Yanyshar anticlinorium. In connection, however, with a general weakening of the tectonic movements and an increase of the argillaceous material metamorphization the forcing up of the latter gradually subsides.—Auth.English summ.     

青藏高原北缘晚新生代的差异性隆起特征

在青藏高原的研究中,一个涉及高原隆升过程和机理的重要科学问题就是高原差异性隆升问题。文中初步研究了晚新生代以来青藏高原北缘的这种差异性隆升特征。研究表明,高原北缘山系隆升变化的差异性是很明显的。自23.7 Ma以来西昆仑山、阿尔金山和祁连山平均剥蚀率分别有4次阶梯式、谷—峰—谷—峰—谷式和二次阶梯式的变化形式。在3.6 Ma BP以前,青藏高原北缘山系的差异性隆升总体上呈现出东高西低的地貌特征;在3.6～1.7 Ma青藏运动发生期间,高原北缘山系的差异性隆升特征是西强东弱;在0.6 Ma以来,高原北缘山系的隆升差异性呈现出西强—中弱—东次强的特征。自1.7 Ma以来青藏高原北缘西昆仑山褶皱带平均缩短应变为38％,阿尔金山褶皱带平均缩短应变为8％,祁连山褶皱带平均缩短应变为15％。这和它们的高度在此期间的差异特征极为相似。     

The dynamics of correlations in open-star cluster models

Two-time and two-point (two-particle) correlations are calculated for several parameters of the stellar motions, the densities, and the phase densities of model open clusters, in the vicinities of the cluster stars. The correlation times and correlation radii are determined in spaces of the parameters considered. The distributions of the two-point correlations for the distances between stars in the coordinate and velocity spaces of the stars are calculated. The local maxima of these distributions are used to determine the parameters of density waves, the potential, and the phase density in the model clusters. Analysis of the fine structure of regions of concentration in the two-point correlations in space of mutual distances between stars suggests the formation of polarization clouds near a number of such distances between stars. The distributions of the phase-density correlations are calculated, and the dynamics of these distributions analyzed. The dispersions of these distributions depend strongly on the presence of broad ??wings?? in the distributions (i.e., of strong correlations in the system). These dispersions are considered as a measure of the degree of correlation of phase-density fluctuations in model clusters. A growth in the correlations with time is observed for 50% of the cluster models considered. Flows of the phase-density correlations are investigated. A dominant correlation flow from the region of strong to the region of weak correlations is identified, leading to a flow of kinetic energy toward the cluster center. The rate at which this flow heats the model cluster core is estimated. Signs of weak turbulence are detected in the stellar motions in the model cluster cores with the highest degree of non-stationary in the regular field.     

龙游石窟3-2号岩柱变形破坏对3号洞应力变化的影响

作为具有大跨度、超浅埋等特点的千年古地下洞室群,龙游石窟吸引着众多前来研究的岩石力学家和工程地质学家。近些年来,龙游石窟的3号洞顶板多处出现了开裂和离层。安装在3-1号岩柱周围起支撑洞室作用钢柱上的应变片数值也发生了变化。据分析,这些现象出现的一个重要原因是3-2号岩柱强度降低引起洞室围岩受力条件的改变。利用FLAC3D数值软件,借鉴强度折减法,对3-2号岩柱强度降低引起上述变化的情况进行了模拟。数值模拟的结果可以较好地解释上述现象。在此基础上,进一步对3号洞顶板和其他岩柱的应力变化等进行了数值分析。结果表明:①3-2号岩柱的强度已有所下降,并有继续降低的趋势;②随着3-2号岩柱强度的降低,顶板的裂缝将不断增长、增多。其结果可为3-2号岩柱强度降低过程中洞室围岩力学行为的科学分析、预测及石窟的保护等提供依据。     

Seismogeological analysis of the pre-Jurassic sediment complexes of the South Kara syneclise in connection with the tectonic zoning of the sedimentary cover

We present new data on the structure of deep horizons of the sedimentary cover of the South Kara syneclise, based on an integrated interpretation of data from modern seismic prospecting and data on the geologic structure of the adjacent folded areas. A network of seismic base profiles reprocessed with up-to-date programs is used to determine the structure of the wave fields of the pre-Jurassic sediments of the South Kara syneclise. The interpretation of the wave fields with the use of the network of seismic base profiles shows that the wave fields of the Pai-Khoi-Novaya Zemlya monoclise and the Novaya Zemlya-Taimyr terrace are fundamentally different from those of the South Kara central area of depressions and uplifts. We substantiate a new structural and tectonic zonation of the northern West Siberian Plate, with areas of Hercynian and Early Cimmerian consolidation. The geologic evolution of the South Kara syneclise and adjacent areas in the Late Paleozoic-Early Jurassic is considered. The studies show that the Hercynides of the northern Taimyr Peninsula occupy the deepest central part of the South Kara syneclise, including the North Siberian step. They are separated from the coeval sediments of the surface part of the northern West Siberian Plate by the Early Cimmerian folded area of the Yamal-Pai-Khoi saddle, which joins the Early Cimmerian West Taimyr folded area to the Early Cimmerides of Pai-Khoi and Novaya Zemlya.The Permo-Triassic rifts distinguished in central West Siberia have no shelf extension. Areal structural studies along the surface of the acoustic basement and analysis of wave fields showed that the structures of the South Kara syneclise were semiconcentric and concentric intermontane depressions and troughs in the Permian and Lower-Middle Triassic. They formed at the orogenic stage of evolution of the Hercynides. In the Devonian-Carboniferous, the South Kara syneclise was an intracontinental block structure. It is presumed that elevated blocks consist of carbonate sediments, whereas the separating troughs consist of bathyal terrigenous sediments. The Hercynian folding, which affected mainly deep-water sediment complexes, was followed by an inversion of the troughs, their uplifting and disintegration. The intermontane depressions which formed instead of carbonate shelf in the Permian were filled with sediments from the uplifts which formed instead of the troughs.A well-grounded conclusion is made about the hydrocarbon potential of the pre-Jurassic basement of the South Kara syneclise. The layered seismic record of the pre-Jurassic sediments suggests their heterogeneous composition, i.e., the presence of sand and clay series (reservoirs and caps). The pools might be of the arch-bedded and lithologic (traps which formed in the case of the toplap of beds onto the eroded surface) types or be localized along the line of pinching-out of the Triassic sediments. The largest number of Paleozoic structures is concentrated on the Rogozinskii and Vilkitsky arches, in the Monskaya and Matusevich saddles, and in the northern Rusanov-Skuratov arch.© 2014, V.S. Sobolev IGM, Siberian Branch of the RAS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.     

On the dynamics of open clusters

The kinematics of stars in open-cluster models are investigated. The central regions of these model clusters are fairly “cool, ” leading to gravitational instability in the cluster cores. A temporary virilization is observed in the model clusters, during which an appreciable fraction of the fluctuation energy of the cluster is temporarily transformed into the kinetic energy of the peculiar motions of stars. The duration of this stage can reach ∼10⁸ yr. The origins of this temporary virialization of the model clusters are discussed. The instability of the intrinsic fluctuations of the phase density in the centers of six clusters and model clusters is investigated. Several new regions of unstable phase-density fluctuations are found, in addition to those already known. The observed and model clusters can move toward a stable equilibrium state when the density of the cluster core both decreases and increases. The structure of regions of instability of the phase-density fluctuations in the centers of the six clusters is studied. Resonance curves for the amplitudes of steady-state phase-density fluctuations in the center of NGC 6705 are constructed. Analysis of the structure of the regions of instability indicates an appreciable rate of fluctuation-energy loss due to relaxation effects. The instability increments and widths of regions of instability fall off with increasing distance of the cluster from the Galactic center. An important role in the formation of regions of instability may be played by resonances between the frequency of the orbital motion of the cluster in the Galaxy and the frequencies of intrinsic phase-density fluctuations in the centers of the clusters considered.     

涂抹区重叠竖井地基固结特性研究

在软基处理工程中,经常出现竖井打设变密而地基固结效率降低的现象。鉴于此,建立了重叠涂抹区内土体水平向渗透系数的分布函数,给出了涂抹区重叠时竖井地基超静孔压和平均固结度的解析解。通过分析不同工况下竖井地基固结度随竖井间距的变化情况,探究了竖井间距减小而地基固结效率不增反减的成因。最后,探讨了涂抹作用和井阻作用对竖井最小临界间距的影响。结果表明：相邻竖井涂抹区重叠是竖井地基中出现竖井最小临界间距的根本原因。涂抹作用越大,则竖井最小临界间距越大;具体表现为当地基扰动程度增大时或涂抹区半径增大时,竖井最小临界间距随之增大。井阻作用越大,则竖井最小临界间距越小;具体表现为当竖井渗透系数减小时、竖井长度增大时或竖井半径减小时,竖井最小临界间距随之减小。     

秦岭中更新世以来抬升的新资料及认识

秦岭北坡的陕西省洛南县南洛河北岸发育高度不同的6层溶蚀洞穴,其中5层溶蚀洞穴中发现沉积物和古生物化石。对这些洞穴进行了考察和发掘,并研究了洞穴内沉积物的化石。另外对洞穴外的河流阶地进行了高程测量和对比分析,用选频光释光法测定各洞穴底部沉积物和洞穴外河流阶地沉积物的年龄,确定了各洞穴大致的形成时代,并首次得到秦岭中更新世以来的抬升资料。其抬升过程中速度不均一性、时代越新抬升速率越强的总趋势等状况与青藏高原相似     

柴油污染重塑红黏土直剪力学特性试验研究

广西红黏土分布区柴油泄漏对土体造成了一定程度污染,为研究轻质非水相非极性柴油孔隙液对红黏土力学性质的影响,本文以0#柴油为添加剂对其重塑样进行不排水快速直剪试验,测得了不同含水率、含油率、法向压力下红黏土抗剪强度及其参数变化规律。研究结果表明:在土-水-油系统中,非极性柴油孔隙液对红黏土强度影响相对较小,且受含水率影响。同一含油率时,红黏土抗剪强度、内摩擦角、黏聚力均随含水率增加而降低;同一含水率时,法向压力影响柴油作用模式,随含油率增加,抗剪强度参数变化较为复杂,当含水率为20%,红黏土内摩擦角、黏聚力反向波动变化;同一含湿率时,柴油比例的提高导致红黏土抗剪强度参数的增大。扫描电镜观察发现,非极性柴油孔隙液的介入,改变了水-土系统的静电及结构模式,导致红黏土强度发生变化,通过所建的“多尺度多阶段柴油作用微结构模型”,阐明了柴油孔隙液对红黏土强度特性影响的微观机理。     

松散体边坡灾害自组织临界性及工程应用研究

我国的松散体边坡灾害频繁。为了解松散体边坡灾害的共性，从整体上认识其规律性信息，文章采用多种形式的非均匀沙堆作为松散体边坡灾害的概化模型，通过多组实验研究其演化行为规律。自组织临界性是解释具有无序的、非线性复杂系统行为特征的理论之一，分形和闪烁噪声是其空间与时间结构的特征。实验发现几种概化模型表现出自组织临界性。分析滑坡、崩塌及泥石流等松散体边坡灾害实例，也发现其呈现自组织临界性特征。研究表明幂律特征及自组织临界性是许多松散体边坡灾害的共性。进一步模拟真实的松散体边坡的组成特征和某些防治工程措施，进行对比实验，表明不同工程措施的防治作用。最后结合挡、锚、喷、排等工程防治措施，探讨了自组织临界理论对松散体边坡灾害防治的指导作用。     

三维矿床地质模型的不确定性

三维矿床地质模型的不确定性对矿山生产决策有着重要影响,正确地对矿床地质模型进行不确定性分析可以对其本身和在其基础上所做的决策作出科学评价。矿床地质模型的不确定性主要来自于建模数据和插值方法的不确定性。通过对建模数据的产生、处理过程的分析,利用处理不确定性问题的理论和方法建立建模数据的不确定性模型。通过对建模方法产生的理论误差和实测误差进行量化,实现对建模方法不确定性的定量描述。将建模数据的不确定性和建模方法的不确定性进行叠置分析,建立矿床模型的不确定性模型。以内蒙古自治区某煤矿的地质资料为例,通过不确定性分析,建立了该矿的不确定性三维矿床地质模型。      

Spatial instability of the rift in the St. Paul multifault transform fracture system,Atlantic Ocean

The structure of the acoustic basement of the eastern part of the St. Paul multifault transform fracture system hosts rift paleovalleys and a paleonodal depression that mismatch the position of the currently active zones. This displacement zone, which is composed of five fault troughs, is unstable in terms of the position of the rift segments, which jumped according to redistribution of stresses. The St. Paul system is characterized by straightening of the transform transition between two remote segments of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR). The eastern part of the system contains anomalous bright-spot-like reflectors on the flattened basement, which is a result of atypical magmatism, that forms the standard ridge relief of the acoustic basement. Deformations of the acoustic basement have a presedimentation character. The present-day deformations with lower amplitude in comparison to the basement are accompanied by acoustic brightening of the sedimentary sequence. The axial Bouguer anomalies in the east of the system continue to the north for 120 km from the active segments of the St. Paul system. Currently seismically active segments of the spreading system are characterized by increasing amplitudes of the E–W displacement along the fault troughs. Cross-correlation of the lengths of the active structural elements of the MAR zone (segments of the ridge and transform fracture zones of displacement) indicates that, statistically, the multifault transform fracture system is a specific type of oceanic strike-slip faults.