中国大陆强震的早期余震概率预测效能评估与制约因素

为系统地考察中国大陆地区强震之后的早期余震概率预测效能及制约因素,以期开展适合板内地震活跃地区的"可操作"强余震概率预测,服务震后抗震救灾、应急救援等工作,本文采用充分利用震后早期小震信息的Omi-R-J模型对中国大陆的86个强震序列进行系统性的预测效能评估.通过连续分段滑动、拟合和余震发生率预测,对地震序列的早期模型参数、余震预测限度及其制约因素进行了讨论,并利用N-test检验方法开展了分级分段分档预测结果的效能评估.通过对比1天和30天数据拟合参数的相关性发现,b、k、c具有较强的相关性,差别较小,而p值的相关性较弱,这或许和p值表示余震活动在长期内的衰减特性有关,Omi-R-J模型可在震后早期记录相对不完整的阶段更早的获得较为稳定的序列参数;利用Omi-R-J模型对中国大陆强震序列的预测结果显示,Omi-R-J模型对中国大陆早期的强余震具有较好的预测能力,总的预测有效率为81.16%,平均预测有效率为83.82%,预测过少的比例大于预测过多的比例,早期序列发育较差或监测能力有限的区域,其预测效果受到很大制约;地震序列参数k是影响地震数目的关键因素,而地震序列发育程度可能是影响震后0.05天地震预测效率的重要因素之一.     

The excavation disturbed zone (EDZ) at Kiirunavaara mine,Sweden—by seismic measurements

The presence of an excavation disturbed zone (EDZ) around an excavation boundary can significantly affect the overall performance of the excavation and the general safety of men and equipment. Hence, it has been an important subject of research in various rock excavation projects. The EDZ is generally defined as the rock zone beyond the excavation boundary where the physical, mechanical and hydraulic properties of the rock have been significantly affected due to the excavation and redistribution of stresses. For LKAB's Kiirunavaara underground iron ore mine in Sweden, the understanding of the EDZ is essential for optimal design of rock support. With this main objective an EDZ investigation was conducted at the mine using seismic measurement techniques. Cross-hole seismics and spectral analyses of surfaces waves (SASW) were the main techniques used. Borehole Image Processing Systems (BIPS) complemented the seismic measurements. The results show that an EDZ with a thickness of 0.5–1. 0 m existed behind the boundaries of the mining drifts being investigated. The magnitude of the Young's modulus of this zone was 50% to 90% of that of the undisturbed rock.     

Source parameters of seismic events potentially associated with damage in block 33/34 of the Kiirunavaara mine (Sweden)

Forty-six mining-induced seismic events with moment magnitude between ?1.2 and 2.1 that possibly caused damage were studied. The events occurred between 2008 and 2013 at mining level 850–1350 m in the Kiirunavaara Mine (Sweden). Hypocenter locations were refined using from 6 to 130 sensors at distances of up to 1400 m. The source parameters of the events were re-estimated using spectral analysis with a standard Brune model (slope ?2). The radiated energy for the studied events varied from 4.7 × 10^?1 to 3.8 × 10⁷ J, the source radii from 4 to 110 m, the apparent stress from 6.2 × 10² to 1.1 × 10⁶ Pa, energy ratio (E _s/E _p) from 1.2 to 126, and apparent volume from 1.8 × 10³ to 1.1 × 10⁷ m³. 90% of the events were located in the footwall, close to the ore contact. The events were classified as shear/fault slip (FS) or non-shear (NS) based on the E _s/E _p ratio (>10 or <10). Out of 46 events 15 events were classified as NS located almost in the whole range between 840 and 1360 m, including many events below the production. The rest 31 FS events were concentrated mostly around the production levels and slightly below them. The relationships between some source parameters and seismic moment/moment magnitude showed dependence on the type of the source mechanism. The energy and the apparent stress were found to be three times larger for FS events than for NS events.     

On the criteria of model performance evaluation for real-time flood forecasting

Model performance evaluation for real-time flood forecasting has been conducted using various criteria. Although the coefficient of efficiency (CE) is most widely used, we demonstrate that a model achieving good model efficiency may actually be inferior to the naïve (or persistence) forecasting, if the flow series has a high lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient. We derived sample-dependent and AR model-dependent asymptotic relationships between the coefficient of efficiency and the coefficient of persistence (CP) which form the basis of a proposed CE–CP coupled model performance evaluation criterion. Considering the flow persistence and the model simplicity, the AR(2) model is suggested to be the benchmark model for performance evaluation of real-time flood forecasting models. We emphasize that performance evaluation of flood forecasting models using the proposed CE–CP coupled criterion should be carried out with respect to individual flood events. A single CE or CP value derived from a multi-event artifactual series by no means provides a multi-event overall evaluation and may actually disguise the real capability of the proposed model.     

Modelling potential hydrological impact of abandoned underground mines in the Monday Creek Watershed,Ohio

Abandoned underground mines (AUM) have caused dramatic environmental effects that are closely linked to regional sustainability. This paper explores the potential hydrological impact of AUM in the Monday Creek Watershed, a typically mined area in Appalachian region, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT 2005) model and Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI‐2), calibrated at both the global and local scales. The locally calibrated model better incorporates those key parameters relevant to AUM for specific sub‐basins and hydrologic response units. Data from the years 2003–2004 were used for calibration and 2005–2006 for validation. The results were quite satisfactory; both the coefficient of determination (R²) and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency statistic were over 0.80. The potential influences of AUM were assessed by modelling an alternative scenario assuming no AUM for the period 2003–2009. Results show that the hydrological process of lateral subsurface flow plays a dominant role in linking AUM to overall watershed hydrology. The potential hydrological impact of AUM is an increased annual lateral flow of 82.1%, and a decrease in annual surface flow by 15%, leading to an increase of 16.9% in annual water yield for the Monday Creek Watershed. The seasonal fluctuation of water yield has a similar trend to lateral flow, decreasing from March to August and increasing from August to January. Higher volume, higher flow peaks and higher recession constants characterized the hydrograph of daily streamflow from AUM. The results indicate that more emphasis should be put on lateral flow for further study of acid mine drainage and flooding control in those watersheds with AUM. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flash flood forecasting model for the Ayalon stream,Israel

Abstract

A composite model for real time forecasting of flash floods in the Ayalon stream in central Israel has been constructed. The model is composed of four kinds of sub-models: an autoregressive model for discharges at upstream stations on the two major tributaries; a travel-time model for the flow from these stations to the downstream station located on the main stem of the stream; a time-area concentration curve for subwatershed drainage between the upstream and downstream stations; and a recession curve for the downstream station. The model incorporates an adaptive mechanism for continuous correction of forecast errors. This mechanism is calibrated during an initial period of operation, and is subsequently operated throughout a flow event. The model issues simultaneous forecasts for seven lead times ranging from 0.5 to 3.5 h. This provides a proper input for a flood warning system which is required for safe operation of a major highway running along the banks of a torrent stream in the metropolitan area of Tel-Aviv.     

Analysis of the 1997 Zirkuh (Ghean-Birjand) aftershock sequence in east-central Iran

IntroductionThesouthernpartofKhorasanProvinceineast-centralIranisoneoftheseismicallyactiveregionsintheMiddleeast.Historicalreportsindicatedseveralearthquakeshavecausedseveredestructionsandhumanlossinthisregionduringthepastcenturies(Ambraseys,Melville,1982).Theinstrumentallyrecordedearthquakesaswellastheexistenceofseveralactivefaultsalsosug-gestedthattheregionhadahighpotentialofseismicactivities.OnMay10,1997at07:57:29.6GMT,12:27:29.6localtime,ashallowdestructiveearthquakewithoutanyfeltfores…     

Analysis and interpretation of the aftershock sequence of the August 17, 1999, Izmit (Turkey) earthquake

A micro-seismic field experiment has been carried out in the Marmara Searegion. The analysis of the events before and after the August 17, 1999Izmit (Turkey) earthquake has been completed. 1446 events have beenwell located out of a total of 3165 recorded within the period from July15 to November 2, 1999. 67% of the aftershocks with magnitudegreater than 4 have occurred within the first 6 days after the main-shock. Earthquakes of the Izmit sequence are distributed in the first 15 km of theearth crust, but major events are located in between 5 km and 15 kmdepth. The seismicity pattern defines a rupture plane extending for about150 km in an E-W direction. The rupture is extremely linear butsegmented, and its complexity increases towards the western endmanifesting bifurcation. A stress analysis has been carried out both at thewestern end and all along the aftershock zone. 96 selected aftershocks,registered between August 21 and October 22, were chosen in order tocompute their focal mechanisms and obtain information about the stressregime after the Izmit earthquake. Strike-slip and normal faultingmechanisms are dominant. The numerous strike-slip mechanisms arecompatible with a dextral motion on an EW oriented vertical fault plane. The best stress tensor solution shows a regime in extension with awell-defined ₃ axis oriented approximately N35^°.     

Development of an aftershock occurrence model calibrated for Turkey and the resulting likelihoods

This paper presents the calibration of Omori's aftershock occurrence rate model for Turkey and the resulting likelihoods. Aftershock occurrence rate models are used for estimating the probability of an aftershock that exceeds a specific magnitude threshold within a time interval after the mainshock. Critical decisions on the post-earthquake safety of structures directly depend on the aftershock hazard estimated using the occurrence model. It is customary to calibrate models in a region-specific manner. These models depend on rate parameters(a, b, c and p) related to the seismicity characteristics of the investigated region. In this study, the available well-recorded aftershock sequences for a set of Mw ≥ 5.9 mainshock events that were observed in Turkey until 2012 are considered to develop the aftershock occurrence model. Mean estimates of the model parameters identified for Turkey are a =-1.90, b = 1.11, c = 0.05 and p = 1.20. Based on the developed model, aftershock likelihoods are computed for a range of different time intervals and mainshock magnitudes. Also, the sensitivity of aftershock probabilities to the model parameters is investigated. Aftershock occurrence probabilities estimated using the model are expected to be useful for post-earthquake safety evaluations in Turkey.     

The Gorkha earthquake of April 25, 2015 in Nepal: Tectonic position,aftershock process,and possibilities of forecasting the evolution of seismic situation

The characteristics of the foci for the main shock and strongest aftershocks of the Gorkha earthquake of April 25, 2015 in Nepal are described. The macroseismic data and examples of seismic dislocations are discussed. The progression of the release of seismic energy by the aftershock process is analyzed. The data for the geophysical and seismological precursors of the main shock and the strongest aftershock of May 12, 2015 are presented. These data allowed us to formulate the short-term forecast of this event.     

S-wave spectral analysis of the 1995 Kozani-Grevena (NW Greece) aftershock sequence

S-wave spectral analysis is applied to 174 strong motion accelerationrecords to obtain the source parameters of 27 aftershocks(3.1 M_L 4.3) of the May 13, 1995, M_w 6.6,Kozani-Grevena (NW Greece) earthquake. The data are derived from atemporary network, of three-component digital accelerographs, deployedwithin the strongly affected area some days after the mainshock occurrence.Site effects were evident in the strong motion records at 3 out of the 4stations used, and a correction was applied to account for theoverestimation of seismic moment due to amplification of thelow-frequency part of the spectrum. The data from this analysis arecomplimented with previously obtained source parameters for earthquakesin Greece, in order to study the applicability of the empirical scalingrelations used so far, towards smaller magnitudes. In general, a goodcorrelation was observed in most cases, validating the use of empiricalrelations that are applicable to the Aegean area. Empirical relations aredetermined between seismic moment and seismic slip, as well as, betweenseismic moment and stress drop, applicable to small magnitude earthquakes(M_L < 4.3). Stress drop values were found to be relatively small,ranging from 2 to 41 bars, indicative of inter-plate environments. Thevalues of f_c and of f_max were found in good agreement withrelations based on observations from larger worldwide earthquakes.     

The Constantine (Algeria) seismic sequence of 27 October 1985: a new rupture model from aftershock relocation, focal mechanisms, and stress tensors

The October 27, 1985 Constantine earthquake of magnitude MS 5.9 (NEIC) although moderate is the strongest earthquake recorded in the eastern Tellian Atlas (northeast Algeria) since the beginning of instrumental seismology. The main shock locations given by different institutions are scattered and up to 10 km away northwest from the NE–SW 30 km long elongated aftershocks cloud localized by a dedicated temporary portable network. The focal mechanism indicates left-lateral strike-slip on an almost vertical fault with a small reverse component on the northwest dipping plane. This paper presents relocations of the main shock and aftershocks using TomoDD. One hundred thirty-eight individual focal mechanisms have been built allowing the determination of the stress tensor at different scales. A rupture model has been suggested, which explains the different observations of aftershock distribution and stress tensor rotation.     

2014年2月12日新疆于田MS7.3级地震主震及余震序列重定位研究

本研究采用基于贝叶斯理论的绝对定位方法对2014年2月12日新疆于田M_S7.3级地震进行绝对定位,得到震中位置为82.56°E、36.04°N、震源深度为12.3 km;采用双差定位法对254个地震序列进行相对定位,得到101个重定位事件.结果显示,主震位于阿尔金断裂带西南端多个分支断裂的交汇处.余震震源主要分布范围在5~10 km深度之间,主震处余震代表的断层面较为陡立,且余震序列呈现出明显的西南向纯单侧扩展模式.沿阿尔金断裂带主震的北东向民丰震区本次地震后显示一个明显的地震丛集,说明本次主震对该震区具有触发作用.     

On the applicability of neural networks for soil dynamic amplification analysis

Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have gained a solid status as a tool for modeling complex phenomena in different areas of research and engineering practice. In this paper, their applicability to estimate the mapping of seismic acceleration from bedrock to free surface in a complex soil profile is explored. Such a use is intended to serve as a hypothesis-free alternative to the dynamic amplification analysis, which is currently based on geophysical and soil dynamics procedures. Were the neural networks to be useful to such a mapping, they could in principle be employed for several purposes, such as soil identification using instrumental data, design of early warning systems and estimation of probabilistic spectra via Monte Carlo simulation, in which the ANN act as an efficient solver surrogate. The conditions under which these ambitious purposes can be reached are discussed. Two classes of multi-layer perceptrons were tested, which are characterized by time-independent and time-dependent connections. It is shown that the first class of networks is useful for response spectrum mapping, while the second performs very well in the assessment of free-surface time series. It arises as the main conclusion that the most promising perspective of application of ANN in this respect is for the estimation of probabilistic free-surface spectra, which is an important goal for the modern trend of reliability-based aseismic design. The limitations to the other said applications are also highlighted.     

A non-extensive statistical physics view to the spatiotemporal properties of the June 1995, Aigion earthquake (M6.2) aftershock sequence (West Corinth rift,Greece)

In the present study, the spatiotemporal properties of the Aigion earthquake (15 June 1995) aftershock sequence are being studied using the concept of non-extensive statistical physics (NESP). The cumulative distribution functions of the inter-event times and the inter-event distances are being estimated for the data set which is assumed to be complete and the analysis yielded the thermodynamic q parameter to be qT = 1.58 and q _r = 0.53 for the two distributions, respectively. The results fit rather well to the inter-event distances and times distributions, implying the complexity of the spatiotemporal properties of seismicity and the usefulness of NESP in investigating such phenomena. The temporal structure is also being discussed using the complementary to NESP approach of superstatistics, which is based on a superposition of ordinary local equilibrium statistical mechanics. The result indicates that very low degrees of freedom describe the temporal evolution of the Aigion earthquake aftershock seismicity.     

The Constantine (northeast Algeria) earthquake of October 27, 1985: surface ruptures and aftershock study

An earthquake of magnitude M_s = 6.0 (CSEM, Strasbourg) occurred at Constantine (Algeria) on 27 October 1985. This seismic event is the strongest felt in the Tellian Atlas since the El Asnam seismic crisis of October 10, 1980. A team from the Centre de Recherche d'Astronomie, d'Astrophysique et de Géophysique (CRAAG, Algeria), utilising 8 portable stations, registered the activity a few days after the main shock. The aftershocks follow a N045° direction, and show the existence of three ruptured segments. Cross sections display a remarkable vertical fault plane and suggest asperities in the rupture process. Surface breaks were found affecting Quaternary deposits. The principal segment is about 3.8 km long showing “enéchelon” cracks with left-lateral displacement while the main direction of the rupture is N055°. Although the vertical motion is small, the northwestern block shows a normal component of the main surface faulting, while the left-lateral displacement is about 10 cm. The strike-slip focal mechanism solution determined from the global seismic network and field observations are in good agreement.     

Testing the applicability of standardised growth curves (SGCs) for OSL signals of quartz grains from the Yangtze Delta,China

The standardised growth curve (SGC) technique has the potential to save instrument time for equivalent dose (D_e) determination when applying single-aliquot regenerative-dose (SAR) protocol during optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) measurements. In this study, we test the applicability of two commonly used SGC procedures for OSL signals of quartz grains from aqueous deposits of the Yangtze Delta in China, which have been reported for weak luminescence signals and suffering from partial bleaching. Multiple silt-sized and sand-sized fractions of quartz samples from eight cores are used to construct SGCs by test dose standardisation (TD-SGC) and least-squares normalisation (LS-SGC), respectively. Three strategies, i.e. region-specific (SGC_R), region with core-specific (SGC_R + C) and core-specific (SGC_C), are adopted to categorise these normalised data into different SGC datasets. The large variability of dose response signals is substantially reduced by the SGC procedures for most of these datasets. Hence, common SGCs for a variety of samples from the Yangtze Delta can be established, irrespective of their distinctive particle sizes and luminescence characteristics. The D_e values are then estimated using both TD-SGC and LS-SGC procedures for samples from a specific core. Comparing to the full SAR protocol, the TD-SGC procedure roughly gives reproducible D_e estimates lower than ∼100 Gy while the LS-SGC procedure derives generally consistent D_e estimates of up to ∼230 Gy. Although LS-SGC_C and LS-SGC_R + C procedures replicate the most consistent D_e values, the LS-SGC_R procedure performs better in efficiency with a slightly less accuracy. In addition to careful comparison of LS-SGC and full SAR procedures, we suggest that a synchronous ratio derived by the chosen regenerative dose and its response signal for re-normalisation can be used to predict the LS-SGC D_e reliability on samples from similar sedimentary environments.     

既有地下结构用于地铁工程的可行性研究(I)

7381工程是70年代初哈尔滨市按照当时地铁限界标准修建的一条地下人防工程。隧道穿越粉质粘土、细砂土层,埋深10～20米。为了评价7381工程现在用于地铁运营的安全性,本文从结构承载能力、构造、变形和裂缝等方面进行了详细检测,主要内容包括混凝土强度、混凝土碳化、混凝土表面裂缝、钢筋强度及锈蚀、隧道衬砌拱顶厚度等,检测结果为旧隧道的安全性与使用性评价奠定了基础。     

既有地下结构用于地铁工程的可行性研究(II)

为了评价7381工程现在用于地铁运营的安全性,基于现场隧道衬砌的检测结果,对主洞衬砌和车站三联拱的承载能力进行了计算。通过多种力学模型讨论衬砌所承受的围岩压力,并依据比较结果,推荐泰沙基模型．计算结果表明衬砌结构承载能力满足现行有关规范要求。对衬砌存在的损伤和劣化进行了机理分析,并提出了有针对性的治理方法。结合地质勘查结果和衬砌结构使用寿命评估结果得出：哈尔滨7381工程经整治后可以用于地铁运营,其剩余使用寿命估算为80年。