频率下降率法对2011年新西兰6.3级地震液化的盲测

场地液化实时监测是减轻地震灾害的新手段,其核心是建立依据强震记录识别场地液化技术,但目前建立的方法尚不成熟,可靠性也缺少实际地震的检验。2011年新西兰地震中液化及其震害现象显著,为检测现有液化识别方法提供了条件。利用该次强震记录,采用孙锐和袁晓铭以往提出的频率下降率法对记录场地液化进行了盲测,为今后方法改进提供思路。针对震中距小于50 km的全部27条原始强震记录进行了识别,有9个场地识别为液化场地,其余为非液化场地;对两个已报道为液化的场地,频率下降率法给出了正确的识别结果;识别出的液化场地主要集中在克赖斯特彻奇市东侧Avon河两岸,这一结果与报导定性相符;发现有两个场地原始强震记录存在疑点,经处理后给出了修正结果。     

液化判别临界曲线的变化模式与一般规律

液化临界值与砂层深度的关系是液化判别方法的基本表征,但对比分析表明,现有液化判别方法的临界曲线有不同的表现模式,甚至定性相反。以Seed-Idriss模型为基础,推导出了砂层埋深对液化势影响的理论解答,提出了砂层埋深与液化临界值的普遍关系,得到了液化判别临界曲线的变化模式和一般规律。结果表明：一般而言,随砂层深度增加,水平地震剪应力和土体抗液化强度同时增大,但前者增大速率大于后者,液化势及液化临界值与砂层深度呈正相关关系;液化临界值与砂层深度呈非线性递增关系,浅埋处饱和砂层液化势递增较为剧烈,深埋处趋于平缓;我国规范CPT液化判别公式的液化临界值与砂层深度呈递减关系,存在定性错误,需要纠正;现有一些液化判别公式中,液化临界值与砂层深度呈线性递增关系,定性正确但模型需要改进。所得结果可为液化判别方法正确发展提供理论基础和借鉴。     

Liquefaction potential of level ground: Deterministic and probabilistic assessment

Two important aspects of the liquefaction of level ground are discussed; the liquefaction potential of a site due to specified earthquake motions and the total probability of liquefaction at a site due to the entire seismic environment surrounding the site. Dynamic effective stress analysis is used to explore two important case histories of liquefaction due to specified ground motions. The probability of liquefaction is assessed by a method which estimates the joint probability of occurence of earthquake magnitude and acceleration amplitude sufficient to cause liquefaction.     

砂土液化判别方法可靠性评价

在进行液化评价简化法与规范液化判别方法对比基础上，利用液化概率的对数回归方程，讨论了规范液化判别方法的可靠性。研究结果表明，我国规范液化判别方法其液化概率变动较大，对于烈度 Ⅶ 度，规范法的液化概率在0.17～0.42间，小于简化法概率0.36～0.43，偏保守。对于烈度 Ⅷ 度和 Ⅸ 度近地表场地，规范法的液化概率高达0.65～0.70，远远高于简化法的液化概率，安全裕度不够。对于含粘粒土质液化评价，规范方法的液化概率总体上都较简化法高，特别是烈度Ⅷ度高粘粒含量其液化概率为0.9。     

FOSM在水平场地液化概率评价中的应用

为了更好地进行场地液化评价,将可靠度理论引入水平场地液化概率评价中。以标准贯入试验(SPT)实测数据的统计分析结果为基础,用一次二阶矩法(FOSM)建立水平场地液化概率评价模型,分析了测试数据变异系数对抗液化安全系数与液化概率的影响,并建议了水平场地液化概率评价标准。实例分析表明,新建水平场地液化概率评价模型各参数的物理意义与统计指标明确,相比传统的确定性分析方法,不仅能判定液化的发生与否,还能给出液化发生的概率,这为进行基于风险分析的抗震设计提供了可能。     

辽宁石佛寺水库砂土液化处理试验

石佛寺水库工程建筑物区主要工程地质问题之一为砂土液化问题。在主坝轴线上选取适当部位进行几种液化处理方案的试验,为检测液化处理效果进行了地基加固处理前后密实度分析和加固处理后地基土地震液化特征分析与评价,对比几种方案的可行性,最终选择解决场区饱和砂土液化的最优方案。     

以标贯试验为依据的砂土液化确定性及概率判别法

核电厂址非基岩场地的地基液化问题是核电厂选址的关键问题,亟需建立核电厂址地基液化判别方法。回顾了以标贯试验和地表峰值加速度为依据的砂土液化判别方法的演化历史,依据Idriss-Boulanger确定液化临界曲线的基本方法,提出了确定液化临界曲线的基本原则,分别依据美国液化数据库、中国抗震规范液化判别式所用的液化数据及综合两者的液化数据资料,给出了相应的液化临界曲线,验证了液化临界曲线的位置对不同的细粒含量、有效上覆压力、现场试验方法的液化数据的合理性,分析了测量或估计土层循环应力比和修正标贯击数各种因素的不确定性对液化临界曲线的敏感性,结果表明：所提的液化临界曲线不易受各种因素的影响。利用Monte Carlo模拟、加权最大似然法和加权经验概率法,给出了液化临界曲线的名义抗液化安全系数与液化概率的经验关系式及概率等值线,并对核电厂Ⅰ类、Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类抗震物项地基,给出了相应的液化临界曲线。     

A rational method for development of limit state for liquefaction evaluation based on shear wave velocity measurements

This papers presents a new approach for developing a limit state for liquefaction evaluation based on field performance data. As an example to illustrate the new approach, a database that consists of, among many other features, in situ shear wave velocity measurements and field observations of liquefaction/non‐liquefaction in historic earthquakes is analysed. This database is first used to train a neural network to classify liquefaction/non‐liquefaction based on soil resistance parameters and load parameters. The successfully trained and tested neural network is then used to establish a limit state, a multiple dimension boundary that separates ‘zone’ of liquefaction from ‘zone’ of non‐liquefaction. The limit state yields cyclic resistance ratio for a given set of soil resistance parameters. Examination of all cases in the database show that the developed limit state has a high degree of accuracy in predicting the occurrence of liquefaction/non‐liquefaction. The developed neural network model can accurately predict the cyclic resistance ratio of soils. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

天津地区饱和粉土地震液化的试验研究

地震液化是导致地基失稳和上部结构受损的直接原因之一。通过对天津地区粉土进行原位取土以及现场原位测试分析,研究了粉土土质特点对液化判别的影响,并在动三轴试验基础上阐述了该区域粉土的动力特性和液化机制。结合原位测试方法比较了现有的地震液化判别方法,指出该区域粉土液化判别应考虑粉土成分特征的影响,并提出孔压达到围压的60%～90%,双幅应变达到4%可作为液化的判别标准。     

Explanation of liquefaction in after shock of the 2011 great east Japan earthquake using numerical analysis

During the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, severe liquefaction occurred in reclaimed ground in Urayasu city, Chiba prefecture. This liquefaction provided important lessons for us to re-recognize the liquefaction mechanism. A distinct feature of the liquefaction in this earthquake is that severe liquefaction happened not only in the main shock but also in an aftershock with a maximum acceleration of 25 gal. In some areas, liquefaction happened in the aftershock is even more serious than that happened in the main shock. In this paper, focus is placed on the characteristic features in the occurrence of liquefaction and consequent ground settlement. Based on the observed data, a series of dynamic–static analyses, considering not only the earthquake loading but also static loading during the consolidation after the earthquake shocks, are conducted in a sequential way just the same as the scenario in the earthquake. The calculation is conducted with 3D soil–water coupling finite element–finite difference analyses based on a cyclic elasto-plastic constitutive model. From the results of analyses, it is recognized that small sequential earthquakes, which cannot cause liquefaction of a ground in an independent earthquake vibration, cannot be neglected when the ground has already experienced liquefaction after a major vibration. In addition, the aftershock has great influence on the long-term settlement of low permeability soil layer. The observed and predicted liquefaction and settlements are compared and discussed carefully. It is confirmed that the numerical method used in this study can describe the ground behavior correctly under repeated earthquake shocks.     

Modification of the liquefaction potential index and liquefaction susceptibility mapping for a liquefaction-prone area (Inegol,Turkey)

Although some liquefaction assessment methods were proposed to evaluate the liquefaction potential of sandy soils, the conventional method based on the standard penetration test (SPT) has been commonly used in most countries and in Turkey. However, it alone is not a sufficient tool for the evaluation of liquefaction potential. The liquefaction potential index was proposed to quantify the severity of liquefaction. Nevertheless, the liquefaction potential index and the severity categories do not answer the question: "Which areas will not liquify?" Besides, the categories do not include a "moderate" category; on the other hand, the "high" and "low" categories are included. This situation is also contrary to the nature of classification schemes. In this study, the liquefaction potential index and the liquefaction potential categories were modified by considering the existing form of the categories based on the liquefaction potential index. While the category of low was omitted, the categories of moderate and "non-liquefied" were adopted. A factor of safety of 1.2 was assumed as the lowest value for the liquefaction potential category of non-liquefied. In addition, the town of Inegol in the Marmara region became the case study for checking the performance of the liquefaction potential categories suggested in this study.     

砂土地震液化的模糊概率评判方法

利用模糊数学中的模糊概率理论,建立了砂土地震液化的模糊概率综合评判模型。在此模型中,提出了模糊权重的概念,可充分考虑权重的模糊性,从而避免权重取值带来的不确定性。结合砂土地震液化特点,选取地震烈度、标准贯入击数、平均粒径和上覆有效压力作为主要评价影响因子,同时将液化程度划分为不液化、轻微液化、中等液化和严重液化4个等级,进而使其评判结果更为精细化。通过算例分析,表明文中方法对砂土液化评判的合理性与有效性。     

Mechanics of origin of flow liquefaction instability under proportional strain triaxial compression

We define a flow liquefaction potential for determining flow liquefaction susceptibility during proportional strain triaxial compression. The flow liquefaction potential is a function of inconsistency between the natural dilative tendency of the soil and the imposed dilatancy during proportional strain triaxial compression. It helps us analyze why given the right conditions, a loose soil that contracts during drained triaxial compression and liquefies under undrained triaxial compression may be stable under proportional strain triaxial compression. Conversely, we also use the flow liquefaction potential to analyze why a dense soil that dilates during drained triaxial compression and is stable under undrained triaxial compression may liquefy under proportional strain triaxial compression. The undrained loose case is a special case of proportional strain triaxial compression under which a soil can liquefy. The central objective of this paper was to investigate the origins of flow liquefaction instability. Hence, we also analyze stress evolution during proportional strain triaxial compression and discuss the mechanics of the test leading up to flow liquefaction instability. We arrive at a necessary precursor for instability, which can serve as a warning sign for flow liquefaction instability, while the soil is still stable. The precursor is not a condition of sufficiency and should also not be confused with the onset of instability itself. The same loading must be applied continuously to induce flow liquefaction instability. The current progress is encouraging and facilitates a deeper understanding of origin of flow liquefaction instabilities.     

胶新铁路砂土液化区路基沉降规律研究

地震液化常给人们带来巨大损失,而剪切振动和循环荷载作用下的动力学效应常被认为是地震液化的主要原因,人们对剪切荷载作用下饱和砂土的液化问题进行了较多的研究,而对循环荷载作用下砂土液化的动力学效应研究较少。胶新铁路在DK39+000开始为高地震烈度区,DK283+550~DK283+770分布有地震可液化层,工程修建后列车动荷载的影响将会有诱发砂土液化的可能性。为了研究通车前自然沉降特征和通车后循环荷载作用下的路基沉降变形规律,本文在具体分析了砂土液化的概念和准则判别的基础上,重点分析了砂土液化区路基沉降特征,包括测试断面竖向分层沉降变形特征分析和路基水平位移特征分析。最后在试验的基础上,从理论上给出了循环荷载下砂土的本构关系。     

南京砂的结构特性与地铁地基液化判别

与圆颗粒的标准砂相比较,片状结构的砂的动力特性更为复杂,用规范法进行液化判别时会误判。为了将砂土片状结构特性考虑到判别过程中,建议了一个更为合理的Ncr 的经验公式,并利用该公式对南京地铁玄武门-南京站区间的砂土层进行液化判别,该区间会发生中等程度为主的液化,最后,将液化判别结果与规范法和室内动力实验结果相比较,分析发现,在南京地铁进行液化判别时,必须考虑片状结构特性对于液化影响;同时,给出了平均液化势随深度的变化情况,以及考虑砂土结构特性对判别结果的影响系数随土层深度的关系,提高了判别的精度。     

汶川地震中甘肃清水田川黄土液化的试验研究

2008年5·12特大地震中,位于甘肃省清水县郭川乡的田川村发生了饱和黄土的液化滑移灾害。本文首先在对田川场地进行考察的基础上,综合田川在汶川地震中的震害情况以及滑移区的地形条件,将该地区在汶川地震中的烈度进行了修正。其次对田川黄土进行了物性指标测试以及室内动三轴液化试验,根据试验结果,综合考虑产生液化所需的场地及土性条件、黄土的动强度和液化特性,对田川黄土液化灾害进行了分析,并采用反应分析的方法对其进行了液化判定。研究结果证明了田川黄土液化的事实存在性,为低烈度区黄土液化提供了新的震害依据。

     

我国规范液化分析方法的发展设想

通过分析我国地震形势、液化震害潜在威胁以及震害防御工作现状,阐明了我国发展液化分析方法的客观需求,简要评述了我国规范中现有液化判别方法,总结了我国近来两次大地震液化考察经验,提出了与规范修订相关的研究设想。通过我国地震安全性评价工作的发展现状以及我国大陆地震重点监视区与第四纪沉积分布性态分析,说明了我国发展液化分析方法的必要性和紧迫性。根据2003年新疆巴楚地震和2008年汶川大地震中液化震害考察结果,比较我国规范现状,提出了与未来规范的完善和发展相关的10个研究课题,包括：液化对设计谱的影响、 特殊土类液化判定标准、区域性的液化判别标准、场地液化概率评价、基于液化土层PGD的结构物损害估计、液化引起地裂缝的生成条件、基于剪切波速的液化判别方法、VI度区内场地液化及危害性判定、深层土液化判定以及场地液化的现场判定和识别技术     

基于静力触探试验的液化判别新方法

近来地震液化灾害频发,再次成为研究重点,发展具有良好应用前景的基于静力触探试验（CPT）的液化判别方法对预防液化灾害具有重要意义。以Boulanger数据库171组数据为回归样本,分析既有方法存在的问题,提出了基于CPT液化判别的双曲线模型和计算公式,并通过提取2011年新西兰地震147组液化新数据,对该方法进行对比检验。研究表明,我国岩土工程勘察规范的CPT液化判别方法对浅埋砂层偏于保守,对深层土又明显偏于危险,而国际上具有代表性的Robertson方法,其液化临界线存在低烈度区不合理回弯、高烈度区又偏于保守的问题。提出的新公式在不同地震动强度和砂层埋深下均可给出合理判别结果,克服了国内外既有方法的缺点,并纳入到具有样板规范性质的《建筑工程抗震性态设计通则》修订稿中,可为我国相关规范修订和工程应用提供支持。     

Evaluation of generalized linear models for soil liquefaction probability prediction

A soil deposit subjected to seismic loading can be viewed as a binary system: it will either liquefy or not liquefy. Generalized linear models are versatile tools for predicting the response of a binary system and hence potentially applicable to liquefaction prediction. In this study, the applicability of four generalized linear models (i.e., logistic, probit, log–log, and c-log–log) for liquefaction potential evaluation is assessed and compared. Eight liquefaction models based on the four generalized linear models and two sets of explanatory variables are evaluated. These models are first calibrated with past liquefaction performance data. A weighted-likelihood function method is used to consider the sampling bias in the calibration database. The predicted liquefaction probabilities from various models are then compared. When liquefaction probability is small, the predicted liquefaction probability is sensitive to the regression models used. The effect of sampling bias is more marked in the high cyclic stress ratio region. The eight models are finally ranked using a Bayesian model comparison method. For the generalized linear models examined, the logistic and c-log–log regression models are most supported by the past performance data. On the other hand, the probit and c-log–log regression models are much less applicable to liquefaction prediction.     

A novel set pair analysis method based on variable weights for liquefaction evaluation

To ensure the safety of structures, high-speed railway and highway founded on liquefiable soils, liquefaction evaluation is a primary task. Herein, a dynamic set pair analysis method based on variable weights is introduced to assess liquefaction. A concept of connection degree of set pair consisting of the evaluation sample and the classification standard was described to interpret the uncertainty of liquefaction and relationship. Moreover, based on reward and penalty mechanism, state variable vectors were presented to assign composite weights of evaluation indicators in order to take into account impacts of indicator variation. And the integrated connection degree to each grade was calculated to evaluate liquefaction of the evaluated cases. Results from practical example and comparison with field investigation and extension method indicated that this proposed model used to evaluate liquefaction is feasible and effective. In addition, it can quantitatively describe liquefaction hierarchy of evaluated samples.