Sea level,climate change and coastal evolution in Morar,northwest Scotland

Analyses of geomorphologically contrasting sites in Morar, NW Scotland, describe the forcing mechanisms of coastal change. Isolation basins (i.e. basins behind rock sills and now isolated from the sea following isostatic uplift) accumulated continuous marine and freshwater sediments from c.12 to 2 ka BP. Raised dune, marsh and wetland sites register breaching, migration and stability of dunes from c. 9 to 2 ka BP. High-resolution methods designed to address issues of macroscale and microscale sea-level changes and patterns of storminess include 1-mm sampling for pollen, dinocyst and diatom analyses, infra-red photography, X-ray photography and thin-section analysis. The data enhance the record of relative sea-level change for the area. Major phases of landward migration of the coast occurred during the period of low sea-level rise in the mid-Holocene as the rate of rise decreased from c. 3 to < 1 mm/year. Relative sea-level change controls the broad pattern of coastal evolution at each site; local site-specific factors contribute to short-term process change. There is no record of extreme events such as tsunami. Within a system of dynamic metastable equilibrium, the Holocene records show that site-specific factors determine the exact timing of system breakdown, e.g. dune breaching, superimposed on regional sea-level rise. The global average sea-level rise of 3 to 6 mm/yr by AD 2050 predicted by IPCC would only partly be offset in the Morar area by isostatic uplift of about 1 mm/yr. A change from relative sea-level fall to sea-level rise, in areas where the regional rate of uplift no longer offsets global processes, is a critical factor in the management of coastal resources.     

A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge,sea-level rise,and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks are exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea-level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise in the northern Gulf coast. The unstructured-grid finite-volume coastal ocean model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the GoM. Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase lines for semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan, and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea-level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a “change of inundation depth” parameter through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea-level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea-level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea-level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.     

Carbonate platform depositional sequences, Upper Cretaceous, south-central Pyrenees (Spain)

The Upper Cretaceous (Cenomanian-Maastrichtian) of the south-central Pyrenees shows five carbonate platform sequences where the major parameters are tectonism, relative sea-level fluctuations and inherited depositional profile. Depositional geometries and basin analysis permit an understanding of the depositional history.Five depositional sequences have been recognized: (1) The Santa Fe sequence (Middle-Upper Cenomanian), a ramp to a skeletal rimmed shelf with an escarpment bypass margin. The lower boundary is an angular unconformity and the upper one records a sea-level drop. The platform location of the margin was determined by a listric normal fault. (2) An abrupt sea-level rise drowned the former platform. The Congost sequence (Turonian-Lower Coniacian), a distally steepened ramp with erosional distal deep slope. The depositional model was largely controlled by pre-existing basin morphology. Cessation of platform development was due to a relative sea-level drop. (3) The Sant Corneli sequence (Upper Coniacian-Lower Santonian), a mixed terrigenous-skeletal homoclinal ramp with upright margin, deep slope and dysaerobic basin. The slope results from the backstepping by 24 km of the previous margin and gentle basin tilting. The platform margin remained more or less at the same position, and relief between platform and slope increased indicating continuous relative sea-level rise. The upper boundary is an angular unconformity at the platform margin produced by an abrupt sea-level rise and platform drowning, and by listric normal faulting. (4) The Vallcarga sequence (Upper Santonian-Campanian), a distal-steepened skeletal homoclinal ramp, erosional escarpment and turbidite basin, which corresponds to the Mesozoic maximum marine expansion. A listric normal fault created two depositional areas: a more or less flat footwall block with a north-northwest prograding carbonate ramp.     

Relative sea-level rise and climate change over the last 1500 years

We constructed a detailed relative sea-level rise curve for the last 1500 years using a novel approach, i.e. charting the rate of relative sea-level rise using microfaunal and geochemical data from a coastal salt marsh sequence (Clinton, CT, USA). The composition of benthic foraminiferal assemblages and the iron abundance in peats were used to describe shifts in marsh environment through time quantitatively. The resulting sea-level rise curve, with age control from ¹⁴C dating and the onset of anthropogenic metal pollution, shows strong increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise during modern global warming (since the late nineteenth century), but not during the Little Climate Optimum (ad 1000–1300). There was virtually no rise in sea-level during the Little Ice Age (ad 1400–1700). Most of the relative sea-level rise over the last 1200 years in Clinton appears to have occurred during two warm episodes that jointly lasted less than 600 years. Changes from slow to fast rates of relative sea-level rise apparently occurred over periods of only a few decades. We suggest that changes in ocean circulation could contribute to the sudden increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise along the northeastern USA seaboard. Relative sea-level rise in that area is currently faster than the worldwide average, which may result partially from an ocean surface effect caused by hydrodynamics. Our data show no unequivocal correlation between warm periods (on a decaal to centennial time-scale) and accelerated sea-level rise. One period of acclerated sea-level rise may have occurred between about ad 1200 and 1450, which was the transition for the Little Climate Optimum to the Little Ice Age, i.e. a period of cooling (at least in northwestern Europe). Local changes in tidal range might also have contributed to this apparent increase in the rate of relative sea-level, however. The second period of accelerated sea-level rise occurred during the period of modern global warming that started at the end of the last century.     

Depositional environments and sea-level changes deduced from Middle Weichselian tidally influenced sediments, Arkhangelsk region, northwestern Russia

Deposits from a Middle Weichselian transgression, the Mezen Transgression, are found in coastal sections in the Mezen and Chyorskaya Bays, northwestern Russia. The marine event is bracketed between two ice advances from the Barents and Kara Sea shelves and dated by Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) to around 60 kyr BP. The deposits represent a shallowing upward succession from offshore marine to intertidal coastal environments. Relative sea-level maximum was at least 40 m above the present owing to significant isostatic subsidence. The sedimentary record is dominated by shallow-marine, subtidal deposits bounded below by an erosion surface representing a downward shift in facies and above by subaerial exposure. The succession reflects deposition during forced regression due to isostatic uplift. A rapidly aggrading succession of subtidal deposits at one site suggests a relative sea-level rise or stillstand superimposed on the isostatically controlled sea-level fall. The rhythmic tidal deposits allow identification of semi-monthly to yearly cycles, providing an estimate of the sedimentation rate of 39 cm/year. This implies a high sediment yield and a rapid relative sea-level rise. We correlate this signal with the rapid eustatic sea-level rise at the end of OIS 4 known from deep-sea records.     

Managed Retreat of Saline Coastal Wetlands: Challenges and Opportunities Identified from the Hunter River Estuary,Australia

We analyse the potential impacts of sea-level rise on the management of saline coastal wetlands in the Hunter River estuary, NSW, Australia. We model two management options: leaving all floodgates open, facilitating retreat of mangrove and saltmarsh into low-lying coastal lands; and leaving floodgates closed. For both management options we modelled the potential extent of saline coastal wetland to 2100 under a low sea-level rise scenario (based on 5 % minima of SRES B1 emissions scenario) and a high sea-level rise scenario (based on 95 % maxima of SRES A1FI emissions scenario). In both instances we quantified the carbon burial benefits associated with those actions. Using a dynamic elevation model, which factored in the accretion and vertical elevation responses of mangrove and saltmarsh to rising sea levels, we projected the distribution of saline coastal wetlands, and estimated the volume of sediment and carbon burial across the estuary under each scenario. We found that the management of floodgates is the primary determinant of potential saline coastal wetland extent to 2100, with only 33 % of the potential wetland area remaining under the high sea-level rise scenario, with floodgates closed, and with a 127 % expansion of potential wetland extent with floodgates open and levees breached. Carbon burial was an additional benefit of accommodating landward retreat of wetlands, with an additional 280,000 tonnes of carbon buried under the high sea-level rise scenario with floodgates open (775,075 tonnes with floodgates open and 490,280 tonnes with floodgates closed). Nearly all of the Hunter Wetlands National Park, a Ramsar wetland, will be lost under the high sea-level rise scenario, while there is potential for expansion of the wetland area by 35 % under the low sea-level rise scenario, regardless of floodgate management. We recommend that National Parks, Reserves, Ramsar sites and other static conservation mechanisms employed to protect significant coastal wetlands must begin to employ dynamic buffers to accommodate sea-level rise change impacts, which will likely require land purchase or other agreements with private landholders. The costs of facilitating adaptation may be offset by carbon sequestration gains.     

Alexandria-Nile Delta coast,Egypt: update and future projection of relative sea-level rise

Previous studies have indicated that the Nile River deltaic plain is vulnerable to a number of aspects, including beach erosion, inundation, and relatively high rates of land subsidence. This issue motivates an update and analysis of new tide-gauge records, from which relative sea-level changes can be obtained. Estimated rates from five tide gauges are variable in terms of magnitude and temporal trend of rising sea level. Analysis of historical records obtained from tide gauges at Alexandria, Rosetta, Burullus, Damietta, and Port Said show a continuous rise in mean sea level fluctuating between 1.8 and 4.9 mm/year; the smaller rate occurs at the Alexandria harbor, while the higher one at the Rosetta promontory. These uneven spatial and temporal trends of the estimated relative sea-level rise (RSLR) are interpreted with reference to local geological factors. In particular, Holocene sediment thickness, subsidence rate and tectonism are correlated with the estimated rates of relative sea-level change. From the relatively weak correlation between them, we presume that tectonic setting and earthquakes, both recent and historical ones, contribute more to accelerated RSLR than that of dewatering and compression/dewatering of Holocene mud underlying the Nile Delta plain. As a result, large areas of the coastal plain have been subsided, but some sectors have been uplifted in response to tectonic activities of thick underlying older strata. Projection of averaged sea-level rise trend reveals that not all the coastal plain of the Nile Delta and Alexandria is vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise at the same level due to wide variability of the land topography, that includes low-lying areas, high-elevated coastal ridges and sand dunes, accretionary beaches, and artificially protective structures. Interaction of all aspects (tectonic regime, topography, geomorphology, erosion rate, and RSLR rate) permitted to define risk areas much vulnerable to impacts of sea incursion due to accelerated sea-level rise.     

Assessment of the sensitivity of the southern coast of the Gulf of Corinth (Peloponnese, Greece) to sea-level rise

The eustatic sea-level rise due to global warming is predicted to reach approximately 18?C59 cm by the year 2100, which necessitates the identification and protection of sensitive sections of coastline. In this study, the classification of the southern coast of the Gulf of Corinth according to the sensitivity to the anticipated future sealevel rise is attempted by applying the Coastal Sensitivity Index (CSI), with variable ranges specifically modified for the coastal environment of Greece, utilizing GIS technology. The studied coastline has a length of 148 km and is oriented along the WNW-ESE direction. CSI calculation involves the relation of the following physical variables, associated with the sensitivity to long-term sea-level rise, in a quantifiable manner: geomorphology, coastal slope, relative sea-level rise rate, shoreline erosion or accretion rate, mean tidal range and mean wave height. For each variable, a relative risk value is assigned according to the potential magnitude of its contribution to physical changes on the coast as the sea-level rises. Every section of the coastline is assigned a risk ranking based on each variable, and the CSI is calculated as the square root of the product of the ranked variables divided by the total number of variables. Subsequently, a CSI map is produced for the studied coastline. This map showed that an extensive length of the coast (57.0 km, corresponding to 38.7% of the entire coastline) is characterized as highly and very highly sensitive primarily due to the low topography, the presence of erosionsusceptible geological formations and landforms and fast relative sea-level rise rates. Areas of high and very high CSI values host socio-economically important land uses and activities.     

Decadal-Timescale Estuarine Geomorphic Change Under Future Scenarios of Climate and Sediment Supply

Future estuarine geomorphic change, in response to climate change, sea-level rise, and watershed sediment supply, may govern ecological function, navigation, and water quality. We estimated geomorphic changes in Suisun Bay, CA, under four scenarios using a tidal-timescale hydrodynamic/sediment transport model. Computational expense and data needs were reduced using the morphological hydrograph concept and the morphological acceleration factor. The four scenarios included (1) present-day conditions; (2) sea-level rise and freshwater flow changes of 2030; (3) sea-level rise and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030; and (4) sea-level rise, freshwater flow changes, and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030. Sea-level rise increased water levels thereby reducing wave-induced bottom shear stress and sediment redistribution during the wind-wave season. Decreased watershed sediment supply reduced net deposition within the estuary, while minor changes in freshwater flow timing and magnitude induced the smallest overall effect. In all future scenarios, net deposition in the entire estuary and in the shallowest areas did not keep pace with sea-level rise, suggesting that intertidal and wetland areas may struggle to maintain elevation. Tidal-timescale simulations using future conditions were also used to infer changes in optical depth: though sea-level rise acts to decrease mean light irradiance, decreased suspended-sediment concentrations increase irradiance, yielding small changes in optical depth. The modeling results also assisted with the development of a dimensionless estuarine geomorphic number representing the ratio of potential sediment import forces to sediment export forces; we found the number to be linearly related to relative geomorphic change in Suisun Bay. The methods implemented here are widely applicable to evaluating future scenarios of estuarine change over decadal timescales.     

Coastal marsh response to historical and future sea-level acceleration

We consider the response of marshland to accelerations in the rate of sea-level rise by utilizing two previously described numerical models of marsh elevation. In a model designed for the Scheldt Estuary (Belgium–SW Netherlands), a feedback between inundation depth and suspended sediment concentrations allows marshes to quickly adjust their elevation to a change in sea-level rise rate. In a model designed for the North Inlet Estuary (South Carolina), a feedback between inundation and vegetation growth allows similar adjustment. Although the models differ in their approach, we find that they predict surprisingly similar responses to sea-level change. Marsh elevations adjust to a step change in the rate of sea-level rise in about 100 years. In the case of a continuous acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise, modeled accretion rates lag behind sea-level rise rates by about 20 years, and never obtain equilibrium. Regardless of the style of acceleration, the models predict approximately 6–14 cm of marsh submergence in response to historical sea-level acceleration, and 3–4 cm of marsh submergence in response to a projected scenario of sea-level rise over the next century. While marshes already low in the tidal frame would be susceptible to these depth changes, our modeling results suggest that factors other than historical sea-level acceleration are more important for observations of degradation in most marshes today.     

全球海平面变化与中国珊瑚礁

本文以政府间气候变化专业委员会（IPCC）于2001年专门报告中关于21世纪内全球气候变化的温度和海平面变化的预估为前提。简要介绍了中国珊瑚礁的定位、类型和分布,对其进行了成熟度分类,评估了全球海平面变化对中国珊瑚礁的影响。据预测,21世纪我国各海域海平面上升以南海最大,为32 ~ 98cm,其平均上升速率为0.32 ~ 0.98cm/a。从海平面上升速率与珊瑚礁生长速率的理论对比分析,中国珊瑚礁基本上能与前者同步生长,即使海平面以预估高值上升,也不会威胁其生存。从中国珊瑚礁成熟度较高、其生长趋势以侧向生长为主的现实状况出发,未来全球海平面上升能为其创造向上生长的有利条件。从古地理学“将古论今”观点出发,自全新世6000aBP以来曾存在过的高海平面和较高表层海水温度的历史,也可以佐证,21世纪的全球海平面上升不会对中国珊瑚礁的存在和发育造成威胁。现存的珊瑚礁岛应对于全球海平面上升,可以做到“水涨岛高”,它们能够屹立于上升了的未来海平面之上;但对于岛上的人工建筑物则会被浸、被淹,或被淘蚀和破坏,因此必须根据海平面上升的幅度和速率,采取相应的防御措施。     

Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat of the Nile Delta promontories, Egypt

Studies of the Nile Delta coast have indicated wide values of local subsidence, ranging from 0.4 to 5 mm/yr. Trend analysis of sea-level rise and shoreline retreat at two Nile Delta promontories have been studied. Records from tide gauges at Alexandria (1944–1989) and Port Said (1926–1987), north of the Nile delta coast, indicate a submergence of the land and/or a rise of the sea-level of 2 and 2.4 mm/yr, respectively.Dramatic erosion has occurred on some beaches of the Nile Delta. This is greatest at the tips of the Rosetta and Damietta promontories, with shoreline retreat up to 58 m/yr. Relationship between the shoreline retreat and sea level trends in terms of correlation analysis and application of the Bruun Rule indicates that the sea level rise has, by itself, a relatively minor effect on coastal erosion. The sea-level trend at the Nile delta coast is found to be only one of several effects on shoreline retreat. Major recent effects include a combination of cut-off of sediment supply to the coast by damming the River Nile and local hydrodynamic forces of waves and currents. Estimates of local future sea-level rise by the year 2100 at Alexandria and Port Said, respectively, is expected to be 37.9 and 44.2 cm. These expectations, combined with other factors, could accelerate coastal erosion, inundate wetlands and lowlands, and increase the salinity of lakes and aquifers.     

Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat of the Nile Delta promontories,Egypt

Studies of the Nile Delta coast have indicated wide values of local subsidence, ranging from 0.4 to 5 mm/yr. Trend analysis of sea-level rise and shoreline retreat at two Nile Delta promontories have been studied. Records from tide gauges at Alexandria (1944–1989) and Port Said (1926–1987), north of the Nile delta coast, indicate a submergence of the land and/or a rise of the sea-level of 2 and 2.4 mm/yr, respectively. Dramatic erosion has occurred on some beaches of the Nile Delta. This is greatest at the tips of the Rosetta and Damietta promontories, with shoreline retreat up to 58 m/yr. Relationship between the shoreline retreat and sea level trends in terms of correlation analysis and application of the Bruun Rule indicates that the sea level rise has, by itself, a relatively minor effect on coastal erosion. The sea-level trend at the Nile delta coast is found to be only one of several effects on shoreline retreat. Major recent effects include a combination of cut-off of sediment supply to the coast by damming the River Nile and local hydrodynamic forces of waves and currents. Estimates of local future sea-level rise by the year 2100 at Alexandria and Port Said, respectively, is expected to be 37.9 and 44.2 cm. These expectations, combined with other factors, could accelerate coastal erosion, inundate wetlands and lowlands, and increase the salinity of lakes and aquifers.     

Effects of climate change on groundwater resources at Shelter Island, New York State, USA

Rising sea levels due to climate change are expected to negatively impact the fresh-water resources of small islands. The effects of climate change on Shelter Island, New York State (USA), a small sandy island, were investigated using a variable-density transient groundwater flow model. Predictions for changes in precipitation and sea-level rise over the next century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 report were used to create two future climate scenarios. In the scenario most favorable to fresh groundwater retention, consisting of a 15% precipitation increase and 0.18-m sea-level rise, the result was a 23-m seaward movement of the fresh-water/salt-water interface, a 0.27-m water-table rise, and a 3% increase in the fresh-water lens volume. In the scenario supposedly least favorable to groundwater retention, consisting of a 2% precipitation decrease and 0.61-m sea-level rise, the result was a 16-m landward movement of the fresh-water/salt-water interface, a 0.59-m water-table rise, and a 1% increase in lens volume. The unexpected groundwater-volume increase under unfavorable climate change conditions was best explained by a clay layer under the island that restricts the maximum depth of the aquifer and allows for an increase in fresh-water lens volume when the water table rises.     

Last Interglacial changes in sea level on Aldabra,western Indian Ocean

The Pleistocene limestones on the island of Aldabra in the western Indian Ocean preserve a detailed record of the Last Interglacial interval. Sedimentological analysis has revealed that this interval, formerly regarded as reflecting rapid sea-level rise, during global warming, followed by a more gradual fall towards the low sea level of the Last Glacial Maximum, in fact shows much greater variation. Although data do not support an accurate chronology, there is evidence that reversals in sea-level trend caused both pauses in deposition and concurrent erosion during sea-level rise, and both stillstands and erosion during sea-level fall. Data include sea-level related variations in coral morphology, discontinuities and boundaries within depositional sequences, and changes in biofacies. These may explain inconsistencies in the radiometric ages of deposits within the unit, but question the nature of the interglacial cycle, the mechanisms driving it and, in particular, whether comparable variation occurred elsewhere.     

Cat Island platform, Bahamas: an incipiently drowned Holocene carbonate shelf

Analyses of high resolution, seismic reflection profiles and surface sediment samples indicate that the Cat Island shelf is presently in an incipiently drowned state. This small carbonate bank is characterized by a thin (<4 m), coarse-grained, relict sediment cover, along with limited reef development, and a relatively deep (20–30 m) margin indicating that it has been unable to ‘keep-up’ with Holocene sea-level rise. Early flooding at relatively high rates of sea-level rise (4 m kyr^-1, 5–8 × 10³ yr BP) in conjunction with small bank size and relatively low elevation, led to a reduced rate of carbonate accumulation and incipient drowning. The shelf edge currently lies beneath the zone of maximum carbonate production and exposes the interior shelf to open marine conditions which may result in permanent drowning if it is unable to ‘catch-up’ with continued sea-level rise. Sediment facies patterns are largely oriented perpendicular or oblique to the shelf edge and appear to be controlled by shelf circulation patterns focused by bank-margin reentrants. In comparison with most of the northern Bahamas, the Cat Island shelf was flooded earlier and at relatively higher rates of Holocene sea-level rise which led to selective drowning, implying that carbonate platforms need not drown synchronously over widespread areas as commonly thought. The potential rock record of this incipient drowning event would be a thin, open-marine sand sheet of highly degraded cryptocrystalline and aggregate grains associated with poorly developed reefs.     

Sediment accumulation at a fringe marsh during transgression,Oyster, Virginia

A variety of processes and sources account for the total accumulation of sediment on a fringe marsh. The rates of accretion across Brockenberry fringe marsh at the south end of the Delmarva Peninsula, Virginia, were determined by Pb-210 radiogeochronology. Rates are governed by the surface elevation with respect to midtide elevation, the rate of sea-level rise, and outwash from the mainland. Only some portions of the fringe marsh are able to keep pace with sea-level rise and thus migrate up the mainland slope during transgression.     

Flandrian sea-level changes in the Fenland. II: Tendencies of sea-level movement,altitudinal changes,and local and regional factors

Stratigraphic, micropalaeontologic and radiocarbon data show that since c. 6500 BP the Fenland has been influenced by 7 periods of positive sea-level tendencies and by 6 periods of negative sea-level tendencies. Despite the numerous problems associated with the reconstruction of past altitudes of sea level the periods of positive sea-level tendencies were clearly characterised by a rise in sea level, the development of transgressive overlaps and a landward movement of the coastline. The periods of negative sea-level tendencies were characterised by the development of regressive overlaps, a seaward movement of the coastline and a reduced or negative rate of sea-level rise. The various altitudinal errors do not permit the incontrovertible distinction of periods of falling sea levels. All changes within the Fenland were not synchronous and local factors influenced the exact nature of each sea-level indicator. Dominant regional and local factors have been identified for different areas and different time periods. The chronological and spatial characteristics of the sequences within the Fenland are best explained by a palaeocoastline without supratidal barriers controlling sedimentation. The data indicate an average crustal subsidence in the Fenland of 0.9m/1000 years since c. 6500 BP and the pattern of positive and negative tendencies of sea-level movement is also seen in the chronologies for north west England and north east Scotland.     

Microfossil analysis of sediments representing the 1964 earthquake, exposed at Girdwood Flats, Alaska, USA

Diatom, pollen, foraminifera and thecamoebian assemblages from an outcrop of peat and silt at Girdwood Flats, in the upper Turnagain Arm of the Cook Inlet, Alaska, record four phases of relative land and sea-level changes. The first phase is the development of freshwater swamp above high marsh sediments during relative land uplift, caused by strain accumulation along the locked portion of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone. In second phase, the top 2 cm of the peat, all microfossil groups record pre-seismic relative sea-level rise (relative land subsidence). The third phase is rapid land subsidence, 1.7 m, during the earthquake of March 1964 that initiated intertidal silt accumulation above the peat. The final phase is the colonisation of mudflat by salt marsh communities during post-seismic land uplift. The microfossil data compare favourably with sequences from Washington, Oregon and British Columbia that record late Holocene submergence events caused by earthquakes. The comparable changes in microfossil assemblages record the different phases of relative land and sea-level changes and the magnitude of land subsidence caused by each earthquake (expressed relative to the tidal range at the site). These results raise the question whether preseismic sea-level rise represents any kind of warning of large earthquakes.     

Vulnerability of Hampton Roads,Virginia to Storm-Surge Flooding and Sea-Level Rise

Sea-level rise will increase the area covered by hurricane storm surges in coastal zones. This research assesses how patterns of vulnerability to storm-surge flooding could change in Hampton Roads, Virginia as a result of sea-level rise. Physical exposure to storm-surge flooding is mapped for all categories of hurricane, both for present sea level and for future sea-level rise. The locations of vulnerable sub-populations are determined through an analysis and mapping of socioeconomic characteristics commonly associated with vulnerability to environmental hazards and are compared to the flood-risk exposure zones. Scenarios are also developed that address uncertainties regarding future population growth and distribution. The results show that hurricane storm surge presents a significant hazard to Hampton Roads today, especially to the most vulnerable inhabitants of the region. In addition, future sea-level rise, population growth, and poorly planned development will increase the risk of storm-surge flooding, especially for vulnerable people, thus suggesting that planning should steer development away from low-lying coastal and near-coastal zones.