Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay

Using a high resolution, three-dimensional, primitive equation, finite volume coastal ocean model with flooding and drying capabilities, supported by a merged bathymetric-topographic data set and driven by prototypical hurricane winds and atmospheric pressure fields, we investigated the storm surge responses for the Tampa Bay, Florida, vicinity and their sensitivities to point of landfall, direction and speed of approach, and intensity. All of these factors were found to be important. Flooding potential by wind stress and atmospheric pressure induced surge is significant for a category 2 hurricane and catastrophic for a category 4 hurricane. Tide, river, and wave effects are additive, making the potential for flood-induced damage even greater. Since storm surge sets up as a slope to the sea surface, the highest surge tends to occur over the upper reaches of the bay, Old Tampa Bay and Hillsborough Bay in particular. For point of landfall sensitivity, the worst case is when the hurricane center is positioned north of the bay mouth such that the maximum winds associated with the eye wall are at the bay mouth. Northerly (southerly) approaching storms yield larger (smaller) surges since the winds initially set up (set down) water level. As a hybrid between the landfall and direction sensitivity experiments, a storm transiting up the bay axis from southwest to northeast yields the smallest surge, debunking a misconception that this is the worst Tampa Bay flooding case. Hurricanes with slow (fast) translation speeds yield larger (smaller) surges within Tampa Bay due to the time required to redistribute mass.     

Hurricane control on shelf-edge-reef architecture around Grand Cayman

Rimming the outer shelf of Grand Cayman is a submerged, 87 km long shelf-edge reef that rises to within 12 m of mean sea level. It consists of an array of coral-armoured buttresses aligned perpendicular to shore and separated by steep-sided sediment-floored canyons. Individual buttresses have a diverse coral-dominated biota and consist of three architectural elements: a shield-like front wall colonized by platy corals, a dome-shaped crown colonized by head corals, and a shoreward-projecting spur covered by varying amounts of branching coral. Buttresses are commonly fronted by coral pinnacles that, in some areas, have amalgamated with buttress walls to produce pinnacle-and-arch structures. As margin orientation changes, shelf-edge-reef architecture shows systematic variations that are consistent with changes in fetch and height of hurricane waves. Along margins exposed to fully developed storm waves, shelf-edge-reef buttresses are deep, have large amplitudes, and are dominated by robust head corals. These characteristics are consistent with hurricane-induced pruning of branching corals and the flushing of significant quantities of sand from buttress canyons by return flows. Along margins impacted by fetch-limited storm waves, reef buttresses are shallower, have intermediate-amplitudes, and have a significantly higher proportion of branching corals. These characteristics are consistent with less coral pruning and sand flushing by weaker hurricane waves. Along margins fully protected from storm waves, the buttresses-canyon architecture of the shelf-edge reef breaks down producing a series of shallow, undulating, branching-coral-dominated ridges that merge laterally into an unbroken belt of coral. These characteristics correspond with negligible amounts of pruning and flushing during hurricanes. In addition to differences between margins, local intra-marginal changes in shelf-edge reef architecture are consistent with changes in the angle of hurricane-wave approach. Open sections of the shelf-edge reef, which face directly into storm waves, are pruned of branching corals and the fragments swept back onto the shelf producing extensive spurs. By contrast, on more sheltered, obliquely orientated sections, storm-waves sweep debris along and off shelf producing little or no spur development. Instead, the debris shed seawards accumulates in front of the buttress walls and initiates the development of coral pinnacles. Over time, repeated buttress pruning and canyon flushing during hurricanes not only controls reef architecture but may also influence accretion patterns. Vertical accretion is limited by the effective depth of storm-wave fragmentation. Once this hurricane-accretion threshold is reached the reef moves into a shedding phase and accretes laterally via pinnacle growth, amalgamation, and infilling. Consequently, the reef steps out over its own debris in a kind of balancing act between lateral growth and slope failure — a pattern widely recognized in ancient reefs.     

Hurricane Gilbert: The storm of the century

Hurricane Gilbert has been labelled the storm of the century because of the many meteorological records it set. These include size, straightness of track, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, and total energy. After ravaging Jamaica as a Force 3 storm, Gilbert made landfall in Yucatan as a Force 5, one of only three hurricanes of such magnitude to do so in North America this century. In spite of a death toll of 318 and property damage in the billions of dollars, Gilbert's impacts were eclipsed by the extensive publicity that accompanied Hurricane Hugo's landfall in South Carolina the following year (1989).     

Hurricane effects on seagrasses along Alabama's Gulf Coast

In November 2004, we evaluated the effect of Hurricane Ivan on seagrass meadows in Alabama by surveying all coastal locations known to support seagrass prior to Hurricane Ivan's Iandfall in September 2004. We found that 82% of the sites containing seagrass in 2002 still supported seagrass, and that, as in 2002, the most abundant species wasHalodule wrightii (shoalgrass). We also found more sites containingRuppia maritima (widgeongrass) than previously recorded. We confirmed the existence ofThalassia testudinum (turtlegrass) in Little Lagoon, Alabama, whose first record in the state had been noted in 2002. A resurvey of the western half of Alabama's coastal waters in October 2005 after Hurricane Katrina found no loss of seagrass, with all sites that supported seagrass in 2004 still containing seagrass in 2005. There was no major loss of Alabama's seagrass resources due to Hurricanes Ivan or Katrina, even though both category 3 hurricanes severely affected the northern Gulf Coast.     

The perceived landfall location of evacuees from Hurricane Gustav

Hurricane evacuations in the United States are costly, chaotic, and sometimes unnecessary. Many coastal residents consider evacuation after viewing a forecasted graphic of where the storm is anticipated to make landfall. During the evacuation process, hurricane tracks commonly deviate from the forecasted landfall track and many evacuees may not pay attention to these track deviations after evacuating. Frequently, a disconnect may occur between the actual landfall track, the official forecasted track, and the perceived track of each individual as they made their evacuation decision. Specifically for evacuees, a shift in track may decrease the hazards associated with a landfalling hurricane since evacuees perceive their threat level to be high at the time of evacuation. Using survey data gathered during the evacuation from Hurricane Gustav (2008) in coastal Louisiana (USA), we calculated a type of Z-score to measure the distance error between each evacuee’s perceived landfall location and the actual landfall location from each evacuee’s home zip code. Results indicate a personal landfall bias in the direction of home zip code for evacuees of three metropolitan regions. Evacuees from the greater New Orleans area displayed the highest error, followed by evacuees from greater Lafayette. Furthermore, we validate the authenticity of the previous results by employing two additional methods of error assessment. A large regional error score might possibly be a predictor of evacuation complacency for a future hurricane of similar magnitude, although there are many other variables that must be considered.     

Acute Disturbance of Lake Pontchartrain Benthic Communities by Hurricane Katrina

In 2005, Hurricane Katrina produced a distinct, acute ecological disturbance of the benthic invertebrate community of Lake Pontchartrain, LA, USA. The bivalve Rangia cuneata and other community dominants were lost from 50% (815 km²) of the lake bottom. The storm surge directly killed benthic organisms and produced salinity stratification that caused episodes of detrimental low dissolved oxygen concentration at depths >3.7 m. Past disturbance of the bottom by shell dredging and intrusion of higher salinity bottom water through deep shipping channels appears to have contributed to the severity of this impact. Colonization by tolerant opportunistic taxa occurred, but low rainfall after Katrina has slowed the recovery of the typical rangia community. A decrease in water transparency and an increase in turbidity and chlorophyll a were associated with the loss of clam biomass. Other hurricanes may have produced less obvious but similar effects on smaller spatial and temporal scales.     

Crowdsourcing for forensic disaster investigations: Hurricane Harvey case study

A critical prerequisite of risk prevention measures for natural hazards is from the results of forensic disaster investigations (FDIs). The current studies of the FDIs are limited by data issues including data availability and data reliability. The applications of crowdsourcing method in natural disasters indicate the potential to provide data support for the FDIs. However, there is very limited existing research on the use of crowdsourcing data for the FDIs. Following the requirements published by the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk program for FDIs, this paper establishes the process map for conducting the FDIs by scenario analysis approach with the crowdsourcing and crowdsensor data. Hurricane Harvey is used as the case study to implement the process map. The results show that the use of crowdsourcing data for the FDIs is feasible. Though this paper takes practical measures for improving the reliability of crowdsourcing data (i.e., little data size) in the case study, future research can focus on the development of advanced algorithm for the crowdsourcing data quality validation.     

The extratropical transition of Hurricane Igor and the impacts on Newfoundland

There is a tendency to equate the word “hurricane” with the tropical regions of the world. Many residents do not recognize the danger and risks that occur when a tropical cyclone reaches colder subtropical waters and undergoes extratropical transition. Atlantic Canada, particularly the island of Newfoundland, is most at risk from extratropical transitions. The circumstances, location and dynamics of extratropical transitions in the North Atlantic have not been extensively studied. Consequently, forecasters continue to call approaching storms “hurricanes,” when most are extratropical cyclones by the time they reach Atlantic Canada. Newfoundland, in particular, has suffered devastating impacts from extratropical transition, notably Igor in 2010. Igor impacted Newfoundland as a Category 1 hybrid system, which was still undergoing extratropical transition. Igor was an example of a classic Cape Verde cyclone. Flooding was a severe problem, destroying property and roads and isolating communities. Total damages were estimated to be at least $110 million CAD with some values reaching as high as $200 million CAD. Fire and emergency services-Newfoundland and Labrador, the government of Canada, climatologists and meteorologists will benefit from a deeper understanding of extratropical transitions. Better forecasts could warn a given population of when and where a transition could take place and how best to prepare for the consequences.     

Pre-landfall evacuee perception of the meteorological hazards associated with Hurricane Gustav

In this study, evacuees from the path of Hurricane Gustav were surveyed to determine which meteorological hazards most influenced their decision to leave. Surveys were conducted along two major evacuation routes on August 30 and 31, 2008, to collect time-sensitive data on individual evacuation decisions related to the meteorological hazards from Hurricane Gustav. The regions of New Orleans, Houma, and Lafayette were represented most frequently, as determined by zip code data collected from the surveys. Responses were evaluated first by meteorological hazard for the entire dataset and then by three-digit zip code region. Overall, storm surge was the most important meteorological variable, followed by the size of the storm, wind, rain, and tornadoes. When separated into three-digit zip code regions, analyses revealed evacuees from in and around New Orleans were driven to evacuate as a result of the perceived threat from storm surge and storm size; residents in the Houma, Louisiana region were motivated to leave due to the threat from storm surge; and Lafayette and the surrounding areas were most-concerned with the threats posed by hurricane-force winds. Given the forecast track and intensity, survey respondents understood the meteorological hazards from Gustav and were motivated to leave based on personal evaluations of risk associated with the storm.     

Geologic impact of Hurricane Andrew on Everglades coast of southwest Florida

Hurricane Andrew, one of the strongest storms of the century, crossed the southern part of the Florida peninsula on 24 August 1992. Its path crossed the Florida Everglades and exited in the national park across a mangrove-dominated coast onto the shallow, low-energy, inner shelf. The storm caused extensive breakage and defoliation in the mangrove community; full recovery will take decades. It produced no extensive sedimentation unit; only local and ephemeral ebb-surge deposits. The discontinuous shelly storm beach ridge was breached at multiple locations, and it moved landward a few meters. After seven months, there was little geologic indication that the storm had passed. It is likely that the stratigraphic record in this area will not contain any recognizable features of the passage of Hurricane Andrew.     

Collective resources in the repopulation of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina

This study explores the influence of three factors on a person’s decision to drive in winter weather: destination, affected area, and caution level. Participants (n = 555) completed an online survey that included scenarios with text of a simulated radio message involving a character named Mike. After the scenario, participants answered Likert-scaled questions related to their intention to drive (what would you do) and their recommended behavior for others (what should Mike do). There was a significant effect of destination and caution level on the decision to drive. Participants were more likely to respond that they would drive if the destination was work rather than dinner, and if the caution statement was “exercise caution” rather than “do not drive.” There were similar significant effects of destination and caution level on what the scenario character should do. It is recommended that a clear directive be included in warning messages to encourage drivers to stay off the roadways during hazardous weather.     

Hurricane flood risk assessment for the Yucatan and Campeche State coastal area

Natural Hazards - In this study, the first ever Sea, Lake, Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) grid was built for the Yucatan Peninsula. The SLOSH model was used to simulate storm surges in the...     

Effects of Hurricane Ivan on water quality in Pensacola Bay, Florida

Pensacola Bay, Florida, was in the strong northeast quadrant of Hurricane Ivan when it made landfall on September 16, 2004 as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. We present data describing the timeline and maximum height of the storm surge, the extent of flooding of coastal land, and the magnitude of the freshwater inflow pulse that followed the storm. We computed the magnitude of tidal flushing associated with the surge using a tidal prism model. We also evaluated hurricane effects on water quality using water quality surveys conducted 20 and 50 d after the storm, which we compared with a survey 14 d before landfall. We evaluated the scale of hurricane effects relative to normal variability using a 5-yr monthly record. Ivan's 3.5 m storm surge inundated 165 km² of land, increasing the surface area of Pensacola Bay by 50% and its volume by 230%. The model suggests that 60% of the Bay's volume was flushed, initially increasing the average salinity of Bay waters from 23 to 30 and lowering nutrient and chlorophylla concentrations. Additional computations suggest that wind forcing was sufficient to completely mix the water column during the storm. Freshwater discharge from the largest river increased twentyfold during the subsequent 4 d, stimulating a modest phytoplankton bloom (chlorophyll up to 18 μg l⁻¹) and maintaining hypoxia for several months. Although the immediate physical perturbation was extreme, the water quality effects that persisted beyond the first several days were within the normal range of variability for this system. In terms of water quality and phytoplankton productivity effects, this ecosystem appears to be quite resilient in the face of a severe hurricane effect.     

Impact of Hurricane Allen on the morphology of Padre Island,Texas

During the night of August 9, 1980, Hurricane Allen crossed Padre Island, Texas, causing a variety of morphological changes The extent and form of changes appear to have been influenced by man-made structures on the more heavily developed portions of the island Future development and planning activities must recognize the dynamic nature of a barrier island subject to periodic hurricane influence in order to minimize property damage Research activities were partially funded by the Graduate School, Texas Tech University College of Agricultural Sciences Publication T-6-137