A semi-probabilistic procedure for developing societal risk function

Among the coastal districts of mega city Istanbul, Bakirkoy is one of the most critical one with the importance of air and marine transportation and presence of many other coastal facilities and structures that are prone to suffer from marine hazards. In the history, the Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquake and landslide events and associated tsunamis. Therefore, tsunami risk assessment is essential for all coastal districts of Istanbul, including Bakirkoy district. In this study, a further developed methodology for tsunami human vulnerability and risk assessment Metropolitan Tsunami Human Vulnerability Assessment (MeTHuVA) is applied for Bakirkoy district of Istanbul, considering earthquake generated tsunamis. High-resolution tsunami hazard analysis is performed with the integration of coastal inundation computation with tsunami numerical tool NAMI DANCE and tsunami human vulnerability assessment with GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis methods (MCDA). Using analytical hierarchy process method of MCDA, a hierarchical structure is established, composed of two main elements of tsunami human vulnerability: Vulnerability at Location and Evacuation Resilience. Tsunami risk assessment for Bakirkoy district is calculated by integrating result of hazard and vulnerability assessments with a risk relation that includes a parameter (n), which represents the preparedness and awareness level of the community. Tsunami simulations revealed that the maximum inundation distance is over 350 m on land and water penetrates almost 1700 m along Ayamama stream. Inundation is observed in eleven neighborhoods of Bakirkoy district. In the inundation zone, maximum flow depth is found to be over 5.7 m. The inundated area forms 4.2% of whole Bakirkoy district, and 62 buildings are located in the inundation zone. Hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results for different neighborhoods of Bakirkoy district are presented and discussed.     

A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment

Tsunami evacuation is an effective way to save lives from the near-field tsunami. Realistic evacuation simulation can provide valuable information for accurate evacuation risk assessment and effective evacuation planning. Agent-based modeling is ideal for tsunami evacuation simulation due to its capability of capturing the emergent phenomena and modeling the individual-level interactions among agents and the agents’ interactions with the environment. However, existing models usually neglect or simplify some important factors and/or mechanisms in tsunami evacuation. For example, uncertainties in seismic damages to the transportation network are not probabilistically considered (e.g., by simply removing the damaged links (roads/bridges) from the network). Typically a relatively small population (i.e., evacuees) is considered (due to computational challenges) while neglecting population mobility. These simplifications may lead to inaccurate estimation of evacuation risk. Usually, only single traffic mode (e.g., on foot or by car) is considered, while pedestrian speed adjustment and multi-modal evacuation (e.g., on foot and by car) are not considered concurrently. Also, pedestrian–vehicle interaction is usually neglected in the multi-modal evacuation. To address the above limitations, this study proposes a novel and more realistic agent-based tsunami evacuation model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment. Uncertainties in seismic damages to all links in the transportation network as well as uncertainties in other evacuation parameters are explicitly modeled and considered. A novel and more realistic multi-modal evacuation model is proposed that explicitly considers the pedestrian–vehicle interaction, walking speed variability, and speed adjustment for both the pedestrian and car according to traffic density. In addition, several different population sizes are used to model population mobility and its impact on tsunami evacuation risk. The proposed model is applied within a simulation-based framework to assess the tsunami evacuation risk assessment for Seaside, Oregon.

     

Tsunami in the last 15 years: a bibliometric analysis with a detailed overview and future directions

In the last fifteen years, tsunami science has progressed at a rapid pace. Three major tsunamis: The Indian Ocean in 2004, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, and the 2018 Palu tsunami were significant landmarks in the history of tsunami science. All the three tsunamis, as mentioned, suffered from either no warning or poor reception of the alerts issued. Various lessons learned, consequent numerical models proposed, post-2004 tsunami damage findings manifested into solutions. However, the misperceived solutions led to a disastrous impact of the 2011 Tohoku event. In the following years, numerous improvements in warning systems and community preparedness frameworks were proposed and implemented. The contributions and new findings have added multi-fold advancements to tsunami science progress. Later, the 2018 Palu tsunami happened and again led to a massive loss of life and property. The warning systems and community seemed un-prepared for this non-seismic tsunami. A significant change is to take place in tsunami science practices and solutions. The 2018 tsunami is one of the most discussed and researched events concerning the palaeotsunami records, damage assessment, and source findings. In the new era, using machine learning and deep learning prevails in all the fields related to tsunami science. This article presents a complete 15-year bibliometric analysis of tsunami research from Scopus and Web of Science (WoS). The review of majorly cited documents in the form of a progressing storyline has highlighted the need for multidisciplinary research to design and propose practical solutions.

     

Tsunami vulnerability assessment of Casablanca-Morocco using numerical modelling and GIS tools

Earthquakes and tsunamis along Morocco’s coasts have been reported since historical times. The threat posed by tsunamis must be included in coastal risk studies. This study focuses on the tsunami impact and vulnerability assessment of the Casablanca harbour and surrounding area using a combination of tsunami inundation numerical modelling, field survey data and geographic information system. The tsunami scenario used here is compatible with the 1755 Lisbon event that we considered to be the worst case tsunami scenario. Hydrodynamic modelling was performed with an adapted version of the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model from Cornell University. The simulation covers the eastern domain of the Azores-Gibraltar fracture zone corresponding to the largest tsunamigenic area in the North Atlantic. The proposed vulnerability model attempts to provide an insight into the tsunami vulnerability of building stock. Results in the form of a vulnerability map will be useful for decision makers and local authorities in preventing the community resiliency for tsunami hazards.     

Spatial and temporal variations in the incidence of dust events over Iran

Large near-field tsunamis pose a significant threat to the Canadian West Coast due to its proximity to the circum-Pacific belt where a significant tsunami-inducing earthquake event from the Cascadia subduction zone is expected. This study investigated the risks associated with such an event in terms of pedestrian evacuation needs and plans for the Town of Tofino, a small community located on the West Coast of Vancouver Island. The population-at-risk within the hazard zone and its ability to evacuate to safety is evaluated using anisotropic path-distance modelling. Mitigation measures, such as vertical evacuation buildings, are quantitatively evaluated. Site-specific inundation modelling was not performed as part of this study; tsunami hazard and safe zones were computed using a range of run-ups varying between 3 and 25 m. It was established that up to 80% of the population is within the maximum hazard zone considered. This evacuation modelling exercise indicates that a maximum of 13% of the population would have insufficient time to reach safety when using a mobility-impaired ambulatory speed. The use of three vertical evacuation buildings can reduce the risk of losing population in this category by 99%. Although some conservative assumptions were used (vertical datum at higher high water, reductions in safe zones by generalization process and mobility-impaired evacuation speeds), the evacuation potential is likely overestimated due to the coarseness of the topographic data used in the evacuation modelling and from an overestimated first wave arrival time. This is the first Canadian study which used anisotropic evacuation modelling to evaluate the vulnerability of a Canadian community to tsunami inundation.

     

Regional differences in cognitive dissonance in evacuation behavior at the time of the 2011 Japan earthquake and tsunami

This paper constructs an evacuation decision-making model that takes cognitive dissonance into consideration. The purpose of this construction is to clarify the psychological mechanism for the evacuation behavior of residents during an emergency, based on Akerlof and Dickens (Akerlof and Dickens Am Econ Rev 72:307–319, 1982) "The economic consequences of cognitive dissonance". Specifically, we empirically explore people’s psychological mechanism (e.g., cognitive dissonance) for evacuation behavior when a tsunami disaster occurs. As a result, we show that the level of anxiety depends on the area where residents live and that the average anxiety of residents is mostly correlated with the level of damage of past disasters, and that it is affected also by the ages of residents. Since the level of anxiety largely affects an individual’s evacuation behavior, this result can indicate for what kinds of people intervention and assistance are required based on the level of anxiety. A high level of anxiety basically promotes evacuation. Since our results show that anxiety is increased by the experience of tsunamis, education having people virtually experience tsunamis may increase evacuation rates efficiently.

     

Navigating the future of tsunami risk communication: using dimensionality,interactivity and situatedness to interface with society

Two-dimensional paper maps are well-established tsunami risk communication tools in coastal communities. Advances in GIS, geovisualization and spatial interface technologies suggest new opportunities to deliver tsunami risk communication using 3D, interactive and situated risk visualization. This paper introduces a set of geovisual interface constructs—dimensionality–interactivity–situatedness (DIS)—and evaluates their presence, absence and distribution in 129 examples of existing academic and public visual tsunami risk communication. The resulting analyses reveal structural differences in the distributions of DIS found in each of academic and public risk communication literatures, and opportunities for interactive location-aware risk communication. The second half of this paper reports on three new tsunami risk visualization interfaces informed by and developed to demonstrate how we might explore new undeveloped risk communication territory revealed by the DIS cube analysis. We discuss the design, rationale and implications of: EvacMap; ARRO3D; and Tsunamulator. These risk visualization interfaces deliver location-aware, user-centred risk maps, as well as virtual risk maps and tsunami simulations that can be viewed while standing in situ in coastal environments. This work is a first step intended to help the risk communication community systematically engage an emerging territory of interactive and location-aware 3D visualizations. This work aims to facilitate and encourage progress towards developing a new strand of interactive, situated geovisual risk communication research, by establishing these guiding constructs, their relationship to existing works and how they may inform the design of future systems and usability research.     

Insights on the small tsunami from January 28, 2020, Caribbean Sea MW7.7 earthquake by numerical simulation and spectral analysis

A major left-lateral strike-slip Mw7.7 earthquake occurred in the vicinity of the Caribbean Sea on January 28, 2020. As a result, a small-scale tsunami was generated. The properties of the seismogenic source were described using observational data gathered for the earthquake and tsunami, as well as information on the regional tectonic setting. The tsunami was simulated with the COMCOT model and Okada’s dislocation model from finite fault solutions for M_W7.7 Caribbean Sea earthquakes published by the United States Geological Survey. The simulation results were compared to tide gauge records to validate whether the seafloor’s vertical displacement generated by the strike-slip fault caused a small-scale tsunami. We conducted a spectral analysis of the tsunami to better understand the characteristics of tsunami records. The tsunami simulation results showed that the co-seismic vertical displacement caused by a strike-slip M_W7.7 earthquake could have contributed to the small-scale tsunami, but the anomalously large high-frequency tsunami waves recorded by the George Town tide gauge 11 min after the earthquake were unrelated to the earthquake-generated tsunami. According to the spectrum analysis, the predominant period of noticeable high-frequency tsunami waves recorded by the George Town tide gauge occurred only two minutes after the earthquake. This indicates that the source of the small-scale tsunami was close to the George Town station and the possible tsunami source was 150 km away from George Town station. These facts suggest that a submarine landslide was caused by the strike-slip earthquake. The comprehensive analysis showed that the small-scale tsunami was not caused solely by co-seismic seafloor deformation from the strike-slip event but that an earthquake-triggered submarine landslide was the primary cause. Therefore, the combined impact of two sources led to the small-scale tsunami.

     

Damage risk assessment of breakwaters under tsunami attack

Turkey was struck by two major events on 17 August and 12 November 1999, named Izmit (M _w = 7.4) and Düzce (M _w = 7.2) earthquakes, respectively. Rubble mound breakwaters in Izmit Bay experienced little damage, as forecasted by the new risk assessment model in which tsunami occurrence risk was included in the damage estimations. In order to determine the occurrence probability of structural damage under design conditions, including the environmental loading parameters of tsunami and storm waves, tidal range and storm surge, the Conditional Expections Monte Carlo simulation was applied in the risk assessment model developed in this study for the Esenköy Fishery Harbour, Turkey. A tsunami was not the key design parameter when compared to storm waves for the main breakwater of the harbour, however, in places with great seismic activity, the tsunami risk should be important depending on the occurrence probability and magnitude of the tsunami.     

Social capital as a shield against anxiety among displaced residents from Fukushima

The March 2011 meltdowns at the Fukushima nuclear power plants in Japan resulted in an increased risk of psychological distress among affected residents. We conducted original surveys of Futaba residents, a town in Fukushima where all of the residents were forced to evacuate from their homes due to radioactive contamination, obtaining 585 responses (a response rate of about 20%). Using this original data set, we investigate the role of social capital in maintaining mental health among the residents. First, we found the level of stress captured by the Kessler index (K6) to be unusually high compared both with people across Japan and with those who were displaced because of the earthquake and/or tsunami (but not the nuclear catastrophe). However, having high levels of social capital—captured by the number of neighbors from Futaba after displacement, participation in volunteer work after displacement, and participation in tea parties after displacement—plays an important role in reducing anxiety and distress among Futaba residents. Finally, we provide concrete recommendations for policy makers and NGOs to increase resilience among affected residents by strengthening social ties.     

The 1996 Sulawesi Tsunami

On 1 January, 1996 at 16:05 p.m. local time, an earthquake of magnitude M = 7.8 struck the central part of Sulawesi Island (Indonesia). It was accompanied by tsunami waves 2–4 m high. Nine people were killed and 63 were injured. A tsunami survey was conducted by Indonesian and Russian specialists. The measured tsunami runup heights and eyewitness accounts are reported and discussed. Historical data on the Sulawesi Island tsunamis are analysed and tsunami risk prediction in the central part of Sulawesi Island carried out for the first time.     

Tsunami hazard evaluation for Kuwait and Arabian Gulf due to Makran Subduction Zone and Subaerial landslides

Given the recent historical disastrous tsunamis and the knowledge that the Arabian Gulf (AG) is tectonically active, this study aimed to evaluate tsunami hazards in Kuwait from both submarine earthquakes and subaerial landslides. Despite the low or unknown tsunami risks that impose potential threats to the coastal area’s infrastructures and population of Kuwait, such an investigation is important to sustain the economy and safety of life. This study focused on tsunamis generated by submarine earthquakes with earthquake magnitudes (M _w ) of 8.3–9.0 along the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) and subaerial landslides with volumes of 0.75–2.0 km³ from six sources along the Iranian coast inside the AG and one source at the Gulf entrance in Oman. The level of tsunami hazards associated with these tsunamigenic sources was evaluated using numerical modeling. Tsunami model was applied to conduct a numerical tsunami simulation and predict tsunami propagation. For landslide sources, a two-layer model was proposed to solve nonlinear longwave equations within two interfacing layers with appropriate kinematic and dynamic boundary conditions. Threat level maps along the coasts of the AG and Kuwait were developed to illustrate the impacts of potential tsunamis triggered by submarine earthquakes of different scales and subaerial landslides at different sources. GEBCO 30 arc-second grid data and others were used as bathymetry and topography data for numerical modeling. Earthquakes of M _w 8.3 and M _w 8.6 along the MSZ had low and considerable impacts, respectively, at the Gulf entrance, but negligible impacts on Kuwait. An earthquake of M _w 9.0 had a remarkable impact for the entire Gulf region and generated a maximum tsunami amplitude of up to 0.5 m along the Kuwaiti coastline 12 h after the earthquake. In the case of landslides inside the AG, the majority impact occurred locally near the sources. The landslide source opposite to Kuwait Bay generated the maximum tsunami amplitudes reaching 0.3 m inside Kuwait Bay and 1.8 m along the southern coasts of Kuwait.

     

Aftershock sequences of two great Sumatran earthquakes of 2004 and 2005 and simulation of the minor tsunami generated on September 12, 2007 in the Indian Ocean and its effect

We present the seismic energy, strain energy, frequency–magnitude relation (b-value) and decay rate of aftershocks (p-value) for the aftershock sequences of the Andaman–Sumatra earthquakes of December 26, 2004 (M _w 9.3) and March 28, 2005 (M _w 8.7). The energy released in aftershocks of 2004 and 2005 earthquake was 0.135 and 0.365% of the energy of the respective mainshocks, while the strain release in aftershocks was 39 and 71% for the two earthquakes, respectively. The b-value and p-value indicate normal value of about 1. All these parameters are in normal range and indicate normal stress patterns and mechanical properties of the medium. Only the strain release in aftershocks was considerable. The fourth largest earthquake in this region since 2004 occurred in September 2007 off the southern coast of Island of Sumatra, generating a relatively minor tsunami as indicated by sea level gauges. The maximum wave amplitude as registered by the Padang, tide gauge, north of the earthquake epicenter was about 60 cm. TUNAMI-N2 model was used to investigate ability of the model to capture the minor tsunami and its effect on the eastern Indian Coast. A close comparison of the observed and simulated tsunami generation, propagation and wave height at tide gauge locations showed that the model was able to capture the minor tsunami phases. The directivity map shows that the maximum tsunami energy was in the southwest direction from the strike of the fault. Since the path of the tsunami for Indian coastlines is oblique, there were no impacts along the Indian coastlines except near the coast of epicentral region.     

Integrated tsunami intensity scale based on maxima of tsunami amplitude and induced current

As with earthquakes, river floods, water waves, and wind intensities, a tsunami intensity has to be synthetic and comprehensive to be efficient. Tsunami impact is complex because the effects can be felt on the beach, on inundated areas and also at berths and anchors. Within the same local area, a tsunami may severely impact the population on the coast, while its effects may be negligible on marine bodies (boats). Most existing tsunami intensity scales are based either on water elevation or on induced currents. However, it is commonly admitted that both variables should be considered simultaneously. Several existing intensity scales were integrated and were made consistent with each other. An original intensity scale is then derived based on analysis of the interdependency between the maxima of tsunami amplitude and induced current: The dimension of the couple composed by two variables is analyzed, in particular through the derivation of a linear relationship using the long wave theory and the use of a fully nonlinear numerical experiment. Our intensity scale is particularly well adapted to numerical studies, for which the two variables are naturally derived within an entire computational grid. Once the tsunami intensity scale was set up, it was briefly applied to a particular case study: the impact of the Sumatra tsunami, dated December 26, 2004, on the coast of Sri Lanka. Indeed, the tsunami scales proposed herein represent an initial framework of study and can be further improved through new or revisited tsunami observations.

     

Estimates of Tsunami Risk Zones on the Coasts Adjacent to the East (Japan) Sea based on the Synthetic Catalogue

Prognostic characteristics of tsunamis in the East (Japan) Sea based on numerical simulations are investigated by using linear long wave theory. Due to the lack of observed data, the concept of the synthetic catalogue is applied to generate possible tsunami scenarios. It includes four real events that occurred in the East (Japan) Sea during the 20th century, 24 hypothetical tsunamigenic earthquakes located in the gap zones of the seismic map, and 76 idealized model ‘hydrodynamic’ sources covering the eastern part of the East (Japan) Sea uniformly. The tsunami wave height distributions along the East (Japan) Sea coastline due to these hypothetical events are computed. From the geographical distributions of tsunami wave height for all possible events, it is found that there exist several coastal locations where the tsunami risk is relatively lower than in other zones. The relation between the maximal value of the tsunami height and its average value is analyzed. It is found that the maximal tsunami height does not exceed the mean wave height times a constant. The uniform bounded curve for all areas can be obtained if the mean wave height is replaced by the modified mean wave height (1/3 of largest waves). The problem of quantitative definition of the prognostic tsunami wave height for each location based on the data from the synthetic catalogue is discussed. The results of tsunami wave height analysis based on the synthetic catalogue can be used as a tool for coastal disaster mitigation planning.     

Approaches for tsunami risk assessment and application to the city of Cádiz, Spain

Tsunamis can represent a significant risk to the population and cause huge economic damage in many costal regions. In order to be able to identify risk hot spots and implement targeted risk reduction measures, decision makers need to have a clear picture of the risk situation in their countries or regions. This work reviews existing approaches for tsunami risk assessment and recommends a five-step process for assessing tsunami risk. As a case study, a qualitative risk assessment for a worst-case tsunami scenario was carried out to understand the tsunami risk to the population in Cádiz. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis of the tsunami hazard input parameters was performed as a strong influence of the variability of the input parameters on the resultant tsunami hazard and risk zonation maps was observed. The study shows that regardless of the assumptions made a non-negligible tsunami risk to Cádiz exists.     

Modeling the 2004 Sumatra tsunami at Seychelles Islands: site-effect analysis and comparison with observations

The M _w = 9.1 mega-thrust Sumatra–Andaman earthquake that occurred on December 26, 2004, was followed by a devastating tsunami that killed hundreds of thousands of people and caused catastrophic effects on human settlements and environments along many coasts of the Indian Ocean, where even countries very far from the source were affected. One of these cases is represented by the Republic of Seychelles, where the tsunami reached the region about 7 h after the earthquake and produced relevant damages, despite the country was more than 4,500 km far from the seismic source. In the present work, we present and discuss a study of the 2004 Sumatra tsunami by means of numerical simulations with the attention focused on the effects observed at the Seychelles Archipelago, a region never previously investigated with this approach. The case is interesting since these islands lay on a very shallow oceanic platform with steep slopes so as the ocean depth changes from thousands to few tens of meters over short distances, with significant effects on the tsunami propagation features: the waves are strongly refracted by the oceanic platform and the tsunami signal is modified by the introduction of additional frequencies. The study is used also to validate the UBO-TSUFD numerical code on a real tsunami event in the far field, and the results are compared with the available observations, i.e., the sea level time series recorded at the Pointe La Rue station, Mahé Island, and run-up measurements and inundation lines surveyed few weeks after the tsunami at Praslin Island, where the tsunami hit during low tide. Synthetic results are found in good agreement with observations, even though some of the observations remain not fully solved. Moreover, simulations have been run in high-tide condition since the 2004 Sumatra tsunami hitting at high tide can be taken as the worst-case scenario for the Seychelles islands and used for tsunami hazard and risk assessments.     

Tracing tsunami signatures of the ad 551 and ad 1303 tsunamis at the Gulf of Kyparissia (Peloponnese,Greece) using direct push in situ sensing techniques combined with geophysical studies

The western Peloponnese was repeatedly hit by major tsunami impacts during historical times as reported by historical accounts and recorded in earthquake and tsunami catalogues. Geological signatures of past tsunami impacts have also been found in many coastal geological archives. During the past years, abundant geomorphological and sedimentary evidence of repeated Holocene tsunami landfall was found between Cape Katakolo and the city of Kyparissia. Moreover, neotectonic studies revealed strong crust uplift along regional faults with amounts of uplift between 13 m and 30 m since the mid-Holocene. This study focuses on the potential of direct push in situ sensing techniques to detect tsunami sediments along the Gulf of Kyparissia. Direct push measurements were conducted on the landward shores of the Kaiafa Lagoon and the former Mouria Lagoon from which sedimentary and microfaunal evidence for tsunami landfall are already known. Direct push methods helped to decipher in situ high-resolution stratigraphic records of allochthonous sand sheets that are used to document different kinds of sedimentological and geomorphological characteristics of high-energy inundation, such as abrupt increases in grain size, integration of muddy rip-up clasts and fining upward sequences which are representative of different tsunami inundation pulses. These investigations were completed by sediment coring as a base for local calibration of geophysical direct push parameters. Surface-based electrical resistivity tomography and seismic data with highly resolved vertical direct push datasets and sediment core data were all coupled in order to improve the quality of the geophysical models. Details of this methodological approach, new in palaeotsunami research, are presented and discussed, especially with respect to the question of how the obtained results may help to facilitate tracing tsunami signatures in the sedimentary record and deciphering geomorphological characteristics of past tsunami inundation. Using direct push techniques and based on sedimentary data, sedimentary signatures of two young tsunami impacts that hit the Kaiafa Lagoon were detected. Radiocarbon age control allowed the identification of these tsunami layers as candidates for the ad 551 and ad 1303 earthquake and tsunami events. For these events, there is reliable historical data on major damage on infrastructure in western Greece and on the Peloponnese. At the former Mouria Lagoon, corroborating tsunami traces were found; however, in this case it is difficult to decide whether these signatures were caused by the ad 551 or the ad 1303 event.     

地震与海啸关系探讨

本文探讨了海啸、地震和它们的成因。作者认为,破坏性地震常伴生着破坏性海啸,但地震不会直接引发海啸。构造地震和地壳变动型海啸之间不是因果关系,而是伴生或共生关系。此外,本文还探讨了破坏性海啸的形成条件和控制地震震级的主要因素。