Effects of hurricane Odile on the infrastructure of Baja California Sur,Mexico

In September 2014, the state of Baja California Sur (BCS), Mexico, was struck by hurricane Odile. The hurricane caused extensive damage to the infrastructure of the state of BCS, where the energy and water supply were interrupted for several days. The direct economic impact was estimated to be more than 1654 million USD. Considering this damage, few days after the cyclonic event, a technical visit to BCS was carried out. The objective of this study is to present the relevant information on the performance of the infrastructure observed after the event, and to make recommendations in order to mitigate the effects of future cyclonic storms in Mexico, based on the observations during the technical visit. The main causes of damage were the use of materials for non-structural elements with a weak performance under high wind speeds, failures in the design and construction of connections of structural and non-structural elements, accumulated damage, lack of maintenance and impact of wind-born debris, as well as the absence of a building code in the region. Background information about meteorological and climatological aspects of the cyclones that have affected the southern region of BCS, the characteristics of hurricane Odile, the analysis of structural damages and the conclusions, are also presented.     

Investigation on the Performance of Pipe Roof Method Adjacent to the Underground Construction

In this paper, the behaviour of the pipe roof method with different pipe roofs disposition schemes including the pipe roof gate system and L-shaped system is discussed in terms of ground settlement reduction in the condition of underground space construction adjacent to the existing structure by using numerical simulation method. Considering the construction sequences of parallel underground tunnels with rectangular cross sections, the appropriate parameters and ground response characteristics of the corresponding pipe roof methods are evaluated by the ground surface displacement. The results indicated that the construction impacts from new buildings can be reduced by the pipe roof method. However, the theoretical performance of pipe roofs is highly dependent on the spacing between two structures. Generally, the L-shaped system is more effective in case of the distance (D) that is less than or equal to 1/2 width of box culvert (R) under the condition of a new structure constructed nearby the existing building. When two structures are constructed simultaneously, the excavation and the construction of structures influence each other reciprocally. The conclusions could provide a reference for the pipe roof method with the application scenario of adjacent building protection.

     

Local housing price index analysis in wind-disaster-prone areas

This study examines the effect of severe wind events on the mean and variance of housing price indices of six metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) that are vulnerable to hurricanes and/or tornadoes. The research focuses on three areas that experienced significant tornado activity (Fort Worth-Arlington, Nashville, and Oklahoma City) and three hurricane-prone areas (Corpus Christi, Miami, and Wilmington, NC). An econometric time series model that captures the housing market responses to severe windstorms is utilized. The model estimates changes in the local housing price index (HPI) as a function of several control variables as well as dichotomous variables that correspond to the tornadoes and hurricanes. As expected, the statistical findings indicate an immediate but short-lived decline in housing prices following a tornado or hurricane. Somewhat surprising is the result that the impact on the housing market is remarkably consistent whether the wind event was a hurricane or a tornado. Hurricanes and tornadoes are vastly different in terms of the point probabilities of a hit, the scope of the affected area and the lead time that supports last minute preparation to mitigate damage. It appears that the market response to destruction of real property does not distinguish between the types of wind event that produced the damage to the region. Results suggest that windstorms result in an immediate one-half to two percent reduction in total MSA housing value. This corresponds to a range of $34 million to $580 million in lost housing value. Estimates indicate some differences in how long market values continue to decline in the periods following the wind event; however, most of the decline occurs within four quarters after the windstorm. These differences can be attributed to the particular time series characteristics of the specific housing markets and their respective housing price indices. The market serves the purpose of integrating and normalizing the losses. In so doing the market provides a metric— a method for calibrating and comparing structural damage caused by different phenomenon.

Consistency in hurricane surface wind forecasting: an improved parametric model

A parametric hurricane wind model has been developed based on the asymmetric Holland-type vortex model. The model creates a two-dimensional surface wind field based on the National Hurricane Center forecast (or observed) hurricane wind and track data. Three improvements have been made to retain consistency between the input parameters and the model output and to better resolve the asymmetric structure of the hurricane. First, in determination of the shape parameter B, the Coriolis effect is included and the range restriction is removed. It is found that ignoring the Coriolis effect can lead to an error greater than 20% in the maximum wind speed for weak but large tropical cyclones. Second, the effect of the translational velocity of a hurricane is excluded from the input of specified wind speeds before applying the Holland-type vortex to avoid exaggeration of the wind asymmetry. The translational velocity is added back in at the very end of the procedure. Third, a new method has been introduced to develop a weighted composite wind field that makes full use of all wind parameters, not just the largest available specified wind speed and its 4-quadrant radii. An idealized hurricane and two historical Gulf of Mexico hurricanes have been used to test the model. It is found that the modified parametric model leads to better agreement with field observation compared with the results from the unmodified model. This will result in better predictions of hurricane waves and storm surges.     

An analysis of coastal and inland fatalities in landfalling US hurricanes

Improvements in hurricane forecasts allowing for more timely evacuations from storm-surge zones are credited with reducing lethality of US landfalling hurricanes. The deadly reach of a hurricane, however, is not limited to storm-surge zones. About 80% of direct US hurricane fatalities since 1970 occurred outside of landfall counties, with most of these fatalities caused by inland flooding. We construct a geographic information system database combining the location and cause of fatalities, estimated wind speeds, and rainfall amounts for the entire track of the storm for landfalling US hurricanes between 1970 and 2007. We analyze the determinants of total fatalities and deaths due to freshwater drowning and wind. Inclusion of inland fatalities results in no downward trend in lethality over the period, in contrast to prior research. Local storm conditions significantly affect lethality, as one-inch and one-knot increases in rainfall and wind increase total fatalities by 28 and 4%. Rainfall significantly increases freshwater-drowning deaths and is insignificant for wind deaths, while the opposite relation holds for wind speed. While coastal counties do not exhibit a significantly higher amount of lethality risk versus inland counties for total or wind-driven fatalities, freshwater-drowning fatalities occur most frequently in inland counties along the center of the storm path and its outer county tiers as we have defined them.     

Anthropogenic effects and climate change threats on the flood diversion of Erchung Floodway in Tanshui River,northern Taiwan

Hurricanes pose serious threats to people and infrastructure along the United States Gulf and Atlantic coasts. The risk of the strongest hurricane winds over the North Atlantic basin is analyzed using a statistical model from extreme value theory and a tessellation of the domain. The spatial variation in model parameters is shown, and an estimate of the limiting strength of hurricanes at locations across the basin is provided. Quantitative analysis of the variation is done using a geographically weighted regression with regional sea surface temperature as a covariate. It is found that as sea surface temperatures increase, the expected hurricane wind speed for a given return period also increases.     

The effects of transportation network failure on people’s accessibility to hurricane disaster relief goods: a modeling approach and application to a Florida case study

Following the catastrophic and devastating Atlantic Hurricane seasons in 2004 and 2005, there has been increased interest in formulating planning directives and policy aimed at minimizing the societal impacts of future storms. Not all populations will evacuate an area forecast to be affected by a hurricane, so emergency managers must plan for these people who remain behind. Such planning includes making food, water, ice, and other provisions available at strategic locations throughout an affected area. Recent research has tackled problems related to humanitarian and relief goods distribution with respect to hurricanes. Experience shows that the torrential rains and heavy winds associated with hurricanes can severely damage transportation network infrastructure rendering it unusable. Scanning the literature on hurricane disaster relief provision, there are no studies that expressly consider the potential damage that may be caused to a transportation network by strong storms. This paper examines the impacts of simulated network failures on hurricane disaster relief planning strategies, using a smaller Florida City as an example. A relief distribution protocol is assumed where goods distribution points are set up in pre-determined locations following the passage of a storm. Simulation results reveal that modest disruptions to the transportation network produce marked changes in the number and spatial configuration of relief facilities. At the same time, the transportation network appears to be robust and is able to support relief service provision even at elevated levels of hypothesized disruption.     

Mapping joint hurricane wind and surge hazards for Charleston,South Carolina

Combined effects of hurricane wind and surge can pose significant threats to coastal cities. Although current design codes consider the joint occurrence of wind and surge, information on site-specific joint distributions of hurricane wind and surge along the US Coast is still sparse and limited. In this study, joint hazard maps for combined hurricane wind and surge for Charleston, South Carolina (SC), were developed. A stochastic Markov chain hurricane simulation program was utilized to generate 50,000 years of full-track hurricane events. The surface wind speeds and surge heights from individual hurricanes were computed using the Georgiou’s wind field model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, respectively. To validate the accuracy of the SLOSH model, the simulated surge levels were compared to the surge levels calculated by another state-of-the-art storm surge model, ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation), and the actual observed water elevations from historical hurricane events. Good agreements were found between the simulated and observed water elevations. The model surface wind speeds were also compared with the design wind speeds in ASCE 7-10 and were found to agree well with the design values. Using the peak wind speeds and maximum surge heights, the joint hazard surfaces and the joint hazard maps for Charleston, SC, were developed. As part of this study, an interactive computer program, which can be used to obtain the joint wind speed and surge height distributions for any location in terms of latitude and longitude in Charleston area, was created. These joint hazard surfaces and hazard maps can be used in a multi-hazard design or risk assessment framework to consider the combined effects of hurricane wind and surge.     

Variations in Geophysical Fields during Hurricanes and Squalls

Based on complex analysis of the results of instrumental observations during strong atmospheric disturbances, it is shown that hurricanes and squalls are accompanied not only by high wind velocities, but also by high-amplitude microbaric variations, variations in amplitudes of the microseismic background, and the vertical component of the electric field. It is established that 1–4 hours before the onset, squalls and hurricanes are characterized by increased amplitudes of microbaric variations in the range of periods of 2–6 min, as well as by low-frequency variations in the electric field and variations in the microseismic background, which together with the meteorological parameters can be considered as a complex prognostic criterion of an impending hurricane (squall).     

Offshore pile system model biases and reliability

ABSTRACT

Recent hurricanes between 2004 and 2008 in the Gulf of Mexico provide valuable new information about design model biases and uncertainties because multiple offshore platforms were loaded beyond the predicted capacity of their pile systems and because there was a failure of a pile system. A Bayesian calibration of model bias factors based on predicted versus observed performance of pile systems in hurricanes indicates that the conventional American Petroleum Institute design method for pile capacity is slightly conservative by about 10% for base shear (i.e. lateral) failures of pile systems in clay, unbiased for overturning (i.e. axial) failures of pile systems in clay, and conservative by more than 50% for overturning failures of piles systems in sand. The epistemic uncertainty in the updated bias factors is represented by coefficient of variation values of about 0.25 for base shear and overturning failures of pile systems in clay and 0.35 for overturning failures of pile systems in sand. A reliability assessment with the calibrated model bias factors shows that the current design practice produces lower reliability for a pile system with three piles versus one with eight piles and lower reliability for a pile system failing in overturning versus one failing in base shear. Therefore, the current design practice could potentially be improved by taking into account the mode of failure and the redundancy in the pile system to provide for a more uniform level of reliability.     

Satellite microwave detected SST anomalies and hurricane intensification

Sea surface temperature (SST) from the remotely sensed infrared measurements, like the GOES, AVHRR, and MODIS, etc., show missing values of SST over the cloudy regions associated with hurricanes. While satellite microwave measurements, like the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) microwave imager (TMI), can provide SST even under cloudy conditions. Both satellite microwave measurements and buoy observations show SST increase in advance of significant hurricane intensification. Moreover, hurricane intensification may also be related to the location of high SST. Our results indicate pre-existing high SST anomaly (SSTA) located at the right side of the storm track for Hurricane Katrina. Numerical simulations also confirm the important impacts of SSTA location on hurricane intensification. Similar situations are also found for Hurricanes Rita and Wilma. In contrast, if there is no high SSTA at the right location, hurricane may not undergo further intensification. This may explain why not all tropical cyclones associated with warm waters can attain peak intensity (categories 4 and 5) during their life cycle, and partially explains why hurricanes do not reach the maximum potential intensity as calculated only according to the magnitude of SST.     

Atmospheric Circulation and Inland Flooding in Twentieth Century North Carolina,USA: Implications for Climate Change Impacts?

Widespread inland floods for 20th century North Carolina, USA were defined from stream flow records as events where flow was more than one standard deviation above the mean annual peak for at least two contiguous drainage basins simultaneously. Thirty-one events were identified. One snowmelt flood was detected. For the others, synoptic causes were identified from precipitation and circulation data. Eight events were directly related to hurricanes. Each required a precursor storm, often another hurricane, to provide sufficient precipitation to overcome the dry soils and low stream flows of the autumnal hurricane season. The decadal frequencies of these floods were poorly correlated with the total number of hurricanes, with no hurricane floods between 1955 and 1999 despite frequent hurricanes. Further, most events involved slow-moving decaying systems, not intense ones. An increase in hurricane intensity, often suggested as a consequence of climate change, may lead to fewer floods. The other floods were produced by either extra-tropical storms or squall lines, and precursor systems were also needed. These floods were common in the first and last three decades of the century, virtually absent in the middle four. This corresponded to a small dip in the total number of cyclones, and to periods of rising temperature statewide. This suggests a future increase in North Carolina floods as global temperatures increase. However, the synoptic causes of the relationship are not clear, and detailed quantitative analyses of recent events are required.     

Cognitive and affective responses of Florida tourists after exposure to hurricane warning messages

Tourists are particularly vulnerable to natural disasters such as hurricanes since they might be less informed and prepared than residents of disaster-prone areas. Thus, understanding how the traits of a tropical cyclone as well as specific characteristics of tourists influence affective and cognitive responses to a hurricane warning message is a critical component in disaster planning. Using scenarios that presented tropical cyclones with different relevant characteristics (such as category at landfall), tourists’ knowledge, experience with hurricanes, trip traits, and the location of the survey (coastal or inland), this study contributes to the literature on sociological issues related to natural disasters. The findings suggest that risk perceptions and fear are influenced differently by the traits of the hurricanes and tourists’ knowledge and experience. Risk is strongly influenced by the projected category of the hurricane at landfall, while fear is not as sensitive to this extremely relevant trait of cyclones. The results also suggest that the influence of risk and fear on evacuation likelihood is strong and positive. This study shows the value of studying cognitive and affective responses to uncertain events.     

A 1200-year proxy record of hurricanes and fires from the Gulf of Mexico coast: Testing the hypothesis of hurricane-fire interactions

We present here the first high-resolution pollen record of vegetation response to interactions of hurricane and fire disturbances over the past 1200 yr from a small lake in Alabama on the Gulf of Mexico coast. The paleotempestological record inferred from the overwash sand layers suggests that the Alabama coast was directly struck by Saffir-Simpson category 4 or 5 hurricanes twice during the last 1200 yr, around 1170 and 860 cal yr BP, suggesting an annual landfall probability of 0.17% for these intense hurricanes. The charcoal data suggest that intense fires occurred after each of these hurricanes. The pollen data suggest that populations of halophytic plants (Chenopodiaceae) and heliophytic shrubs (Myrica) expanded after the hurricane strikes, probably due to saltwater intrusion into the marshes and soil salinization caused by overwash processes. Populations of pines (Pinus sp.) decreased significantly after each intense hurricane and the ensuing intense fire, suggesting that repeated hurricane-fire interactions resulted in high tree mortality and probably impeded recruitment and recovery. Our data support the hypothesis that the likelihood and intensity of fire increased significantly after a major hurricane, producing responses by vegetation that are more complex and unpredictable than if the disturbance agents were acting singly and independently.     

How hurricane attributes determine the extent of environmental effects: Multiple hurricanes and different coastal systems

The most recent spate of hurricanes to strike the United States and Caribbean (1989 to the present) has occurred when many of the affected areas had long-term water quality and biological data collection efforts ongoing, as well as special follow-up studies. These data have allowed researchers to obtain a much clearer picture of how individual characteristics of hurricanes interact with human land use to lead to various types and degrees of environmental effects. Common deleterious water quality effects associated with hurricanes include excessive nutrient loading, algal blooms, elevated biochemical oxygen demand and subsequent hypoxia and anoxia, fish and invertebrate kills, aquatic animal displacements, large scale releases of chemical pollutants and debris from damaged human structures, exacerbated spread of exotic species and pathogens, and pollution of water with fecal microbial pathogens. These and other effects may or may not occur, or occur to varying degrees, depending upon individual hurricane characteristics including category, point of landfall, wind speed, amount of rainfall, and path after landfall. Landfall in a populous area, a post-landfall trajectory upriver toward a headwater region, passage along a floodplain containing pollution sources (such as wastewater treatment plants, concentrated animal feeding operations, and septic systems), and intensity sufficient to damage power generation will all lead to increased environmental damage. We suggest a number of recommendations for post-hurricane water sampling parameters and techniques, and provide several management-oriented recommendations for better coastal and floodplain land use aimed at lessening the water quality effects of hurricanes.     

全球变暖后西北太平洋台风频率的可能变化

通过对近百年来气象记录的分析发现,西北太平洋的台风发生频率及在中国登陆的台风频率的变化与全球地面平均气温变化之间,在滞后26年的情况下存在明显的线性相关关系。据线性回归模型初步预测,随着全球气候的变暖,西北太平洋的台风发生频率及在中国登陆的台风频率将会明显增大。当全球地面平均气温分别升高0.25、0.50、0.75和1.00℃时,西北太平洋的台风发生频率将依次增大27、63、99和134%,在中国登陆的台风频率将依次增大34、63、90和119%。     

A study of the ground control effects of mining longwall faces into open or backfilled entries

Unusual circumstances may require that a longwall retreat into or through a previously driven room. The operation can be completed successfully, but there have been a number of spectacular failures. To help determine what factors contribute to such failures, a comprehensive international database of 131 case histories has been compiled. The cases include six failures where major rock falls occurred in front of the shields, and seven even more serious failures involving major overburden weighting. The case studies suggest two types of room failure mechanism. The first is a roof fall type failure caused by loading of the immediate roof at the face as the fender or remnant longwall panel narrows. The second is an overburden weighting type failure caused by the inability of the roof to bridge the recovery room and face area, and affecting rock well above the immediate roof. The data indicate that the roof fall type of failure is less likely when intensive roof reinforcement (bolts, cables and trusses) is employed together with higher-capacity shields. The overburden weighting failures, in contrast, occurred when the roof was weak and little standing support was used. Weighting failures were not greatly affected by the density of roof reinforcement. In one of the overburden weighting cases, in a Pittsburgh coalbed mine, stress cell, convergence, bolt load and extensometer data have been used to analyze the failure in detail.     

Risk perception and evacuation decisions of Florida tourists under hurricane threats: a stated preference analysis

Though most hurricane evacuation studies have focused on residents, tourists are also a vulnerable population. To assess their perceptions of risk and evacuation likelihood under different hurricane conditions, we surveyed 448 tourists visiting central Florida. Respondents viewed four maps emulating track forecast cones produced by the National Hurricane Center and text information featuring variations of storm intensity, coast of landfall, centerline position relative to the survey site, time until landfall, and event duration. We performed chi-square tests to determine which hurricane conditions, and aspects of tourists such as their demographics and previous hurricane experience, most likely influenced their ratings of risk and evacuation likelihood for respondents located on Pinellas County beaches or inland near Orlando, FL. Highly rated scenarios featured a Category 4 hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast with the centerline passing over the sampling site. Overall, tourists that indicated the highest risk and evacuation ratings were not previously affected by a hurricane, had a trip duration of less than 6 days, and had checked for the possibility of a hurricane strike before departure. However, results for other tourist attributes differed between tourists in coastal and inland locations. We found that although somewhat knowledgeable about hurricanes, tourists misinterpreted the track forecast cone and hurricane conditions, which led to a lower perception of risk and subsequent likelihood to evacuate. Tourists, particularly those from outside of Florida, need to be better educated about the risks they face from hurricanes that make landfall.     

临涣矿区界沟煤矿工程地质条件研究

根据主采煤层顶底板岩体岩性类型及结构面发育程度对其稳定性进行了评价：72煤层顶板以中等稳定一不稳定类型为主,82煤层顶板以中等稳定类型为主,10煤层顶板以中等稳定一稳定类型为主。在大量统计见煤点硬质岩百分含量（k值）的基础上,结合顶板岩石的单轴抗压强度,对各主采煤层顶底板工程地质类型进行了划分：72煤层以一、二类顶板为主,82、10煤层均以五类顶板为主。综合评价该矿工程地质条件为中等即Ⅲ类二型。根据研究成果,指出该矿在采掘过程中可能出现的工程地质问题,并依此提出了治理建议。     

Characteristics of severe Atlantic hurricanes in the United States: 1949–2006

Property insurance data available for 1949–2006 were assessed to get definitive measures of hurricane losses in the U.S. Catastrophes, events causing >$1 million in losses, were most frequent in the Southeast and South climate regions. Losses in these two regions totaled $127 billion, 85% of the nation’s total losses. During the period 1949–2006 there were 79 hurricane catastrophes, causing $150.6 billion in losses and averaging $2.6 billion per year. All aspects of these hurricanes showed increases in post-1990 years. Sizes of loss areas averaged one state in 1949–1967, but grew to 3 states during 1990–2006. Seven of the ten most damaging hurricanes came in 2004 (4) and 2005 (3). The number of hurricanes also peaked during 1984–2006, increasing from an annual average of 1.2 during 1949–1983 to 2.1 per year. Losses were $49.3 billion in 1991–2006, 32% of the 58-year total. Various reasons have been offered for such recent increases in hurricane losses including more hurricanes, more intense tropical storms, increased societal vulnerability in storm-prone areas, and a change in climate due to global warming, although this is debatable.