对流层大气温度"蝴蝶形"震前异常

利用美国国家和海洋大气管理局(NOAA)的大气温度数据, 分析陆地地震和海洋地震震前震中上空的大气温度变化, 研究其作为地震短临前兆的可能性.地震样本包括2014年2月12日于田M_s7.3地震、2008年5月12日汶川M_s8.0地震、2011年3月11日日本M_s9.0地震、2014年4月1日智利M_s8.1海洋地震、2013年3月27日台湾南投县M_s6.1地震和2014年5月30日云南盈江M_s6.1地震.结果表明: (1)震前, 震中位置300~1 000 hPa大气温度有较为一致的变化趋势; (2)200 hPa与400 hPa处(根据不同地点可选择其他, 诸如350 hPa、300 hPa等高度数据)温度折线图在震前趋近或者相交, 出现类似蝴蝶翅膀的"蝴蝶形"特殊曲线形状; (3)200 hPa与400 hPa温度差等值线图在(震前数月、数周或数天不等)震中附近区域的数值减小, 温度差等值线图的塌陷最低点对应震中位置.以上规律有望应用于地震短临预测的时间与震中的确定.      

使用MODIS和MOPITT卫星数据监测震前异常

地震前温度异常以及CH4、CO2等气体的含量增加已经被人们逐渐认识,目前较多的研究集中在使用卫星热红外数据研究震前的温度异常,震前CH4、 CO2等气体含量的增加却一直未能从卫星观测中实现。使用MODIS数据研究了2002年1月15日台湾5级地震前的海上温度异常,使用MOPITT数据研究了2002年3月31日台湾7.5级强震前的CO异常以及温度异常。研究发现温度异常区和CO高值区吻合,因此认为这种温度异常可能是由于地球排气作用而导致。     

The elliptic stress thermal field prior to <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript> 7.3 Yutian,and <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript> 8.0 Wenchuan earthquakes in China in 2008

Some thermal infrared anomalies on the earth’s surface are omens of stronger earthquakes, and have a close relationship with the stress fields. Satellite-based remote sensing is an important means of monitoring and researching this phenomenon. The M _S 7.3 Yutian earthquake in Xinjiang on March 20, 2008 and the M _S 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan on May 12, 2008 both happened in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China, with epicenters more than 2,000 km apart. The two events, however, were a production of an identical stress field in different developing phases. Prior to the M _S 7.3 Yutian earthquake, a large-scale abnormal temperature rise not only covered the epicenter of the forthcoming Yutian earthquake, but also arrived at the epicenter of the farther Wenchuan earthquake. The revolving elliptic stress thermal field reflecting earthquake gestation moved from the west to the east of the Wenchuan epicenter at the time of the Yutian event occurrence. The rotation of the calefactive ellipses and belts prior to the two strong events agreed with the stress field, the focal mechanism, and modality and mechanism property of the ruptures in the crustal surface induced by the events. It should be a reflection of the partial mantle uprush and rotation.     

卫星热红外地震短临预测方法研究

文章扼要介绍卫星热红外亮温异常的基本原理,分析建立地震短临预测遥感信息模型,通过11 a试验性预报实践和几个地震的案例,如南海东沙地震,台湾集集大地震,震例还有内蒙包头地震,美国华盛顿州奥林匹亚地震及印尼苏门答腊巨震等。从作为震兆的亮温异常提升到热应力场,对预测地震震中更加可靠和更有说服力,说明此项技术具有实际应用前景。     

2010年新西兰M7.1地震前的长波辐射变化特征

以2001—2011年美国NOAA长波辐射数据为背景数据,利用涡度背景场法研究2010年9月3日新西兰南岛M7.1级地震前后卫星长波辐射数据变化特征。结果表明,地震当月在震中西南侧出现显著的长波辐射异常变化,这种变化在全年各月及2001—2011年11年历年同月变化中都是最为显著的,认为其是本次地震的1次映震表现。用同样方法对区内2001—2011年11年间发生6次7.0级以上地震的长波辐射数据进行分析,结果在3次陆地地震发震前都检测到了长波辐射异常变化,而海域地震前则未发现这种现象。检索前人的相关研究结果,发现仅有2次海域地震(2004年12月26日印度尼西亚苏门答腊西北海域8.7级地震和2010年1月12日海地7.0级地震)前有长波辐射异常变化的报道,而根据全球云量分布资料显示,这2个地震所发生的区域是全球洋面云量分布最少的2个区域,而新西兰地震发生的区域位于全球洋面云量分布最多的区域。因此,认为由于水汽和云层对地表红外辐射的强吸收作用,长波辐射捕捉陆地地震红外辐射异常变化更加灵敏,对陆地地震的映震效能要强于海洋地震。     

多种地球物理场观测数据中亚失稳现象

20100124山西河津M4.8地震前,临汾地震台宽频倾斜仪记录到与实验室岩石破裂亚失稳过程类似图像,震源及附近地区也出现多项准同步性的短临异常。本文对这次地震前震源及附近地区多种地球物理场观测数据在发震断层黏滑失稳前不同阶段的变化特征进行了探讨。结果表明：1）震前记录到的亚失稳现象并非单点单测项,而是具有多点多物理场的群体性特征;2）这些异常出现的时间与临汾宽频倾斜仪记录的亚失稳事件时间基本同步,其形态上以大幅突变为主,时间上多集中在震前45 d左右,空间上主要集中在距震中100 km的范围内,且具有随时间从外围向震中区集中的特点;3）震前不仅在多种地球物理场观测数据中记录到类似亚失稳现象,而且在震前1~6 d一些地球物理场观测仪器还记录到与发震断层失稳前预滑有关的小事件;4）震前临汾宽频倾斜仪记录到的亚失稳现象、震源及附近地区出现多项准同步性的短临异常,是在震源及附近地区的区域应力场增强、介质特性发生改变的情况下出现的,可能与河津地震有关;5）震前多种地球物理场异常随时间推移显示出协同化的特点,即沿发震断裂方向有由外围向震中迁移和集中的特点。     

芦山地震冶勒大坝强震监测资料分析

冶勒沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝最大坝高为124.5 m,坝址区地震烈度高,地质条件复杂,两岸坝基条件严重不对称。大坝上布设了9台强震仪组成的强震监测台阵,曾获得2008年汶川地震和攀枝花地震的大坝强震监测记录。2013年4月20日四川省雅安市芦山县发生里氏7.0级地震,冶勒大坝距震中约212.5 km,坝址区震感较为强烈,强震监测台阵获得了此次地震较为完整的有效记录。对芦山地震主震记录进行时域分析和频谱分析,总结冶勒大坝在芦山地震中的动力反应规律,并与汶川地震时坝体动力反应进行对比分析。研究表明,芦山地震主震时冶勒大坝最大加速度记录为47.043 cm/s2,最长持续时间为76.98 s,坝顶动力放大效应明显;芦山和汶川地震时大坝动力反应规律的差异与地震波频谱特性及大坝自振特性等密切相关。总体而言,冶勒大坝在震后运行安全稳定,芦山地震未对冶勒大坝造成明显不利影响。     

日本MW9.0级地震同震位移场和应力场的有限元模拟

根据同震位移GPS观测数据, 利用有限元法反演了2011年3月11日本MW9.0级地震的断层滑移模式。在此基础上, 计算了日本MW9.0级地震引起的同震位移场和应力场, 给出了位移和应力的分布, 分析了他们的变化规律并与实测结果进行了对比。计算结果表明: 日本MW9.0级地震的静态断层滑移量最大可达25 m。地震引起断层上盘向东位移, 最大位移在震中附近, 可达24.25 m, 日本东北地区向东位移最大可达6 m。震后地表隆起, 隆起幅度可达5.6 m, 隆起的最高点也在震中附近。日本东北地区东海岸附近有一下沉带, 下沉量可达0.8 m。同震地表位移的计算值与GPS测量结果基本一致。地震引起应力变化, 导致震后应力下降。应力变化是不均匀的, 在震中附近约为9.9 MPa, 在深处可达32 MPa, 在日本东北地区地表应力变化小于4.4 MPa。地震引起的应力变化主要是水平应力, 垂直应力基本不变。     

地震机理的地球系统科学研究及预测实践

本文提出了一个新的地震机理模型:高温高压高导低速流变体震源腔(简称震源腔)与闭锁断层组合模型。高温高压下的软流圈物质在复杂相变空间中,受到温度场中的异重流作用和受迫振动作用而形成深源震源腔。随着软流圈物质上涌, 幔汁在温度差和压力差驱使下,涌入地壳中的物理空间,形成浅源地震震源腔。由于温度升高使得腔体内岩石部分熔融或全部熔融,释放出大量气液流体,拓展腔体空间范围,同时提升腔体内压。当腔体内部有效压力(即内压与上覆地壳压力之差)达到腔体边缘或者上方与脆性活动断层交会部位的岩石破坏强度时,震源腔便进入临界状态。当软流圈物质上涌继续向腔体内供能,或者由于星体连线在震源区造成触发作用,便引起震源腔的隐蔽爆炸,即隐爆,释放腔体内部积累的能量,同时释放区域构造应力场作用于闭锁断层积累的应变能。 腔体隐爆释放能量与腔体规模正相关。闭锁断层释放应变能与闭锁断层规模、闭锁区大小以及区域构造应力场强度相关。震源腔与脆性活动断层交会部位,是潜在震源位置。多年观测资料表明,震源腔从进入临界状态到隐爆,一般经历1~13天,平均7天。长期观测表明,潜在震中区在震前经常出现干旱、气温升高、海温升高、大量水汽释放等异常现象。通过超低频地震仪监测、重力波作用于水汽形成的地震云的观测、次声波的监测、卫星重力异常反映的高程面垂向震荡监测、以及地基卫星导航系统地面升降监测等,都显示出震源腔进入临界状态后的胀缩震荡引起震中及其外围地面的垂向振动。文中还给出了震源腔体隐爆遗迹的直接证据。     

Source parameters of 1<Superscript>st</Superscript> April 2015 Chamoli earthquake (Mw 4.8) vis-à-vis seismotectonics of the region

The paper presents a detailed analysis of 1^st April 2015 earthquake, whose epicenter (30.16° N, 79.28° E) was located near Simtoli village of Chamoli district, Uttarakhand. The focal depth is refined to 7 km by the grid search technique using moment tensor inversion. The source parameters of the earthquake as estimated by spectral analysis method suggested the source radius of ~1.0 km, seismic moment as 1.99E+23 dyne-cm with moment magnitude (Mw) of 4.8 and stress drop of 69 bar. The fault plane solution inferred using full waveform inversion indicated two nodal planes, the northeast dipping plane having strike 334° and dip 5° and the southwest dipping plane with dip 86° and strike 118°. The parallelism of the nodal plane striking 334° with dip 5° as indicated in depth cross sections of the tectonic elements suggested the north dipping Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) to be the causative fault for this earthquake. Spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes during the period 1960-2015 showed seismic quiescence during 2006-2010 and migration of seismicity towards south.     

Surface displacements in Japan before the 11 March 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake

Daily resolution data retrieved from the 1243 ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in Japan are utilized to expose surface displacements before the destructive M9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (March 11, 2011). Variations in the residual GPS data, in which effects of the long-term plate movements, short-term noise and frequency-dependent variations have been removed through a band-pass filter via the Hilbert–Huang transform, are compared with parameters of the focal mechanism associated with the Tohoku-Oki earthquake for validation. Analytical results show that the southward movements, which were deduced from the residual displacements and agree with the strike of the rupture fault, became evident on the 65th day before the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. This observation suggests that the shear stress played an important role in the seismic incubation period. The westward movements, which are consistent with the angle of the maximum horizontal compressive stress, covered entire Japan and formed an impeded area (142°E, 42°N) about 75 km away from the epicenter on the 47th day prior to the earthquake. The horizontal displacements integrated with the vertical movements from the residual GPS data are very useful to construct comprehensive images in diagnosing the surface deformation from destructive earthquakes along the subduction zone.     

芦山地震：一个成功的中期预测案例

2013年4月20日MS 7.0级芦山地震是2008年汶川地震以后龙门山断裂带的又一个灾难性的地质事件。文中回顾了对芦山地震的成功中期预测并给出了预测的依据。2012年11月25日上午,中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会讨论中国西南地区中期地震预测问题。专业委员会主任耿庆国回顾了2012年4月作出的中期预测,认为2012年5月至2013年5月期间,在我国西南地区可能存在MS 7~8级地震。参加会议的委员们同意这一时间预测和震级预测,但是在震中位置预测方面存在不同意见。文章第一作者在会上作了一个报告,并展示了确切的震中预测位置图,即位于四川省雅安与康定连线的中间位置。这一预测的依据主要有两个方面：一方面,雅安西侧与汶川两地,具有两个特征相同的独立的卫星重力局部高异常;二是汶川(5·12)大震只是释放了龙门山断裂带北东段的能量和应力,这导致能量和应力在龙门山断裂带南西段,特别是南西端与重力异常突变叠加区(即中上地壳密度突变区)的加速积累和集中。芦山地震震中位于雅安芦山,与预测震中位置仅相差80 km,发震时间在2013年5月前。芦山地震中期预测的成功给予我们很多启示。作为一种地质过程,地震应该有其自身的规律可循;成功的地震预测需要多方面观测信息的综合分析,正是基于此,目前迫切需要国家的或者国际的具有综合分析经验的专家组和有效的前兆信息平台;卫星重力异常数据的处理和更新将有助于缩小强震预测的包围圈。     

Specific variations of air temperature and relative humidity around the time of Michoacan earthquake M8.1 Sept. 19, 1985 as a possible indicator of interaction between tectonic plates

The recent development of the Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere (LAI) coupling model and experimental data of remote sensing satellites on thermal anomalies before major strong earthquakes have demonstrated that radon emanations in the area of earthquake preparation can produce variations of the air temperature and relative humidity. Specific repeating pattern of humidity and air temperature variations was revealed as a result of analysis of the meteorological data for several tens of strong earthquakes all over the world. The main physical process responsible for the observed variations is the latent heat release due to water vapor condensation on ions produced as a result of air ionization by energetic α-particles emitted by ²²²Rn. The high effectiveness of this process was proved by the laboratory and field experiments; hence the specific variations of air humidity and temperature can be used as indicator of radon variations before earthquakes.We analyzed the historical meteorological data all over the Mexico around the time of one of the most destructive earthquakes (Michoacan earthquake M8.1) that affected the Mexico City on September 19, 1985. Several distinct zones of specific variations of the air temperature and relative humidity were revealed that may indicate the different character of radon variations in different parts of Mexico before the Michoacan earthquake. The most interesting result on the specific variations of atmosphere parameters was obtained at Baja California region close to the border of Cocos and Rivera tectonic plates. This result demonstrates the possibility of the increased radon variations not only in the vicinity of the earthquake source but also at the border of interacting tectonic plates. Recent results on Thermal InfraRed (TIR) anomalies registered by Meteosat 5 before the Gujarat earthquake M7.9 on 26 of January 2001 supports the idea on the possibility of thermal effects at the border of interacting tectonic plates.     

青藏高原地震前CO的排放与卫星热红外增温异常

地震前卫星热红外图像的亮温异常与地球的排气作用有关。由于以往仅在个别点上对CO2、CH4等气体取样或监测,对这些温室气体震前排放的范围缺乏足够的了解。用美国EOS卫星携带的MOPITT探测仪资料,获得了2000年4月30日CO在青藏高原大面积逸出的情况,图像显示CO含量异常升高的区域具形状不规则的圈层结构,累计长度约3 200 km,总面积约267万km2,其CO体积分数值内高外低,体积分数最大的区域（31×10-8≥φ(CO)>27×10-8）大致呈EW向分布,长约800 km,宽约280 km,面积约22.41万km2。整个CO逸出区[WTBX]φ[WT](CO)为2002年正常值的1.57～4.10倍,与从卫星热红外图像上发现的2000年4月29~30日在青藏高原上的大面积多处孤立升温有较好的一致性,且这种CO逸出的现象至少在2000年4月30日之前的数天内是持续存在的,它们都是2000年6月6日甘肃景泰Ms 5.9地震及2000年6月8日缅甸北部Ms 6.9地震的前兆。这一方面说明,气—热震兆机理是有实际依据的,同时也反映了青藏高原上空臭氧层空洞或低值中心的出现可能与CO气体在高空中的不断氧化有关。     

玉树震区地质灾害分布规律与发育特征

2010年4月14日7时49分,青海省玉树县发生MS7.1级地震。玉树地震不仅造成大量房屋破坏与人员伤亡,同时引发了大量的崩塌、滑坡和山体裂缝,并且形成了大量的诸如泥石流、碎屑流等链生灾害隐患,造成玉树震区地质灾害分布规律与发育特征发生显著改变。通过现场调查与数据统计,对地震前后地质灾害分布规律与发育特征进行分析、研究。结果表明: 玉树震区震前地质灾害呈零星点状分布,以泥石流、不稳定斜坡为主要地质灾害类型,规模以小型为主,形成时间主要集中于每年的5～7月。震后,玉树震区地质灾害数量显著增加,在宏观震中结古镇主震断裂穿越的巴曲两岸与结古镇北部山区以及扎曲南部山区,沿主震断裂呈面状集中分布,距离主震断裂较远或远离宏观震中的区域呈零星点状分布。地质灾害受玉树主震断裂控制明显,并受坡型、坡高与坡度的控制; 地质灾害主要分布于距主震断裂2km以内的北盘区域,在坡型上主要分布于凸型与直线型坡,高程为3800～4000m内,坡度在25～40范围内,且以30～35范围内地质灾害最为发育; 地震造成山体地表裂缝所形成的地质灾害隐患比较突出,大中型规模的地质灾害数量明显增加,危害程度显著增高; 汛期地质灾害发育更加集中,并加剧冻融期地质灾害的孕育。     

The 1983, M 5.9 earthquake of Heze,Shandong Province,with its short-term and imminent precursory phenomena

An earthquake (M = 5.9) occurred on November 7, 1983 in the Heze area, Shandong Province (35°17′ N, 115°17∃, H = 12 km). This earthquake belongs to the isolated type of earthquakes. There were no foreshocks; the aftershocks were few in number with their energy decreasing quickly.Within the area surrounding the main shock and up to about 200 km from the epicenter, several types of short-term and imminent anomalies were observed. The major characteristics of the anomalies are as follows:The short-term and imminent anomalies are relatively few in number. The maximum radius of the area where the anomalies occur is about 150–200 km from the epicenter. The time durations of what have been called short-term and imminent anomalies here are small, being

• 1.(1) from 10–20 days to 3–4 months and
• 2.(2) from 1–2 hours to 2–3 days, respectively. The premonitory information was scanty.

Finally, the procedure to recognize the indications of a moderate earthquake is discussed.     

2013年云南香格里拉、德钦-四川得荣交界5.9级地震灾害及发震构造

2013年8月28日、31日, 云南迪庆藏族自治州香格里拉县、德钦县、四川省甘孜藏族自治州得荣县交界地区连续发生5.1级、5.9级地震.为了查明此次地震的影响破坏程度, 进行了地震现场建筑物震害考察并对震中附近断裂进行了野外构造地质剖面调查.两次地震在短时间内并在相近位置连续发生, 造成了此次云南香格里拉、德钦-四川得荣交界地震比以往同级地震的破坏程度要高, 地震烈度最高为Ⅷ级, 有感范围大, 5.9级地震宏观震中大致处在整个灾区破坏最严重的奔子栏镇争古村一带(28.20°N, 99.36°E), 距离地震微观震中约5.1km.等震线沿德钦-中甸断裂呈北西向分布, 近似为椭球状, 结合此次地震震中附近区域现场断裂调查、震源机制解数据以及地震余震空间分布特征, 初步推断此次地震的发震构造为德钦-中甸断层, 其主要表现为一次以正断为主兼有左旋走滑错动的地震事件.      

Definition and temporal evolution of the heat and cold waves over the Spanish Central Plateau from 1961 to 2010

The temporal behavior of the annual frequency of heat and cold waves observed between 1961 and 2010 is established for the Spanish Central Plateau and for the two sub-areas in it. The series of daily maximum and minimum temperature anomalies for the working areas were calculated from the daily data concerning temperature anomalies. The thresholds of these series of anomalies, determined by the P₁₀ and P₉₀ percentiles values, were obtained. Heat waves occur when there are two or more consecutive days on which the maximum and minimum temperature anomalies are simultaneously greater than the values of the thresholds obtained for the P₉₀ percentile. The heat waves that affected the Spanish Central Plateau and the two sub-areas during the period of time considered were identified and their monthly and annual frequencies were obtained. Likewise, a cold wave is considered to have occurred when there are two or more consecutive days on which the maximum and minimum temperature anomalies are simultaneously lower than the thresholds established by the corresponding P₁₀ percentiles. The cold waves occurring in the study area were identified and their monthly and annual frequencies in the study period were established. According to the results, the months with highest number of heat waves between 1961 and 2010 were May (25 waves) and June (23 waves). Trend analysis of the series of annual frequencies indicates that there was an increasing trend towards the occurrence of heat waves, with a confidence level greater than 99%. The linear model established indicates that an increase had occurred in the frequency of heat waves in the Spanish plateau of the order of 0.6 waves every 10 years. Regarding cold waves, these were detected in each month of the year and their frequency ranged between eight and 16 events per year. The months with lowest number of cold waves were April (nine), July (eight) and August (nine), and the months with the highest number were March, May, June and October, with 16 cold waves. The years with the highest number of cold waves were 1969, 1971 and 1977, with seven cases. In the other years the annual rate was between one and six. Trend analysis of the series of annual frequencies indicated that there was a decreasing frequency of cold waves, at the confidence level of 99%. When a linear model was considered for the Spanish Central Plateau a decreasing frequency of the cold waves of the order of 0.54 waves in every 10 years was observed from 1961 to 2010.     

CCSD在线流体监测捕获的气体地球化学异常与2004年9．3级苏门答腊地震可能的超远程关系

中国大陆科学钻探工程在线流体地球化学监测在2004年12月10至2005年1月10日之间捕获到一段重要的气体地球化学异常。该异常从2004年12月24日晚上11点半开始到12月29日晚上7点半结束,其中在12月26日早上7点半到29日晚7点半这段异常非常特殊,表现出流体地球化学的剧烈变化。具体表现为流体组分从基本上不含Ar、He及N2跳跃到富含Ar、但亏损He和N2。该异常发生在2004年9.3级苏门答腊地震前1个半小时。由于CCSD现场离苏门答腊地震震中距离大于4170公里,大于该地震破裂长度1200公理的3倍,该地震在CCSD现场产生的静态应力变化微乎其微,不足以导致CCSD现场深部岩石或封闭破裂的岩石物理性质剧烈变化,因而可以排除静态激发效应的作用。在我国的云南和广东等地所观测到的地震异常和地下水位变化等表明2004年苏门答腊地震的动态激发效应主要沿东北方向,这和大地震的动态激发具有方向性一致。而CCSD现场就位于该方向上。我们推测2004年苏门答腊地震所产生的面波在CCSD现场激发的动态效应,导致库仑型失稳,增进深部岩石或破裂带的渗透率,释放富含Ar但亏损He和N2的流体,产生CCSD所观测到的气体异常。