台风暴雨型泥石流单沟危险度研究

台风暴雨型泥石流分布广泛并常造成重大灾害,有必要对其危险度进行研究。选取温州山区的14处典型台风暴雨型泥石流为研究对象,构建了基于组合因子的单沟泥石流危险度评价模型。选取泥石流规模（M）、泥石流频率（F）、冲沟纵比降（J）、形成区完整系数（C）、台风降雨综合值（E）和地质综合因子（G）来表征泥石流危险程度,并基于信息熵理论获得各组合因子权重值。针对研究区均为低频泥石流的特点,引入麦尔登比率（R值）以间接确定基于不同R值范围的泥石流爆发频率（F）。将评价模型应用于所选的典型沟谷,得到各沟谷泥石流危险度,评价结果符合研究区泥石流沟谷为中、小型低频泥石流的实际情况,并且评价为危险度高的沟谷具备区域上最易形成泥石流的地质地貌条件。     

基于CFX的江口沟泥石流危险区范围预测模拟

拟建猴子岩水电站移民安置点位于江口沟泥石流堆积扇上,通过现场调查泥石流形成条件和运动特征,获得了1958年发生的50 a一遇泥石流危险区范围,根据雨洪法计算确定了泥石流的相关运动学参数。使用基于有限体积法的CFX软件,选择Bingham流变模型对江口沟泥石流流动过程的液面分布情况和速度场进行了三维数值模拟,得出了泥石流危险区范围和速度场分布情况。模拟结果显示,江口沟50 a一遇泥石流流过堆积区的平均速度为5.76 m/s,其中最大速度为13.59 m/s。数值模拟计算得出的危险范围较1958年扩大,是因为早期泥石流堆积物将原有地面特别是沟道附近地面抬高,使得现状条件下泥石流更容易向两侧漫流泛滥而扩大。上述结果为泥石流防治工程设计及危险区范围划定提供了一种新的方法,对工程实践具有重要的指导意义。     

黄土丘陵小流域生态用水试验研究--气候和土地利用变化的影响

为探讨黄土高原地区的生态恢复,以半干旱黄土丘陵区安家沟小流域的气象、土壤水分、地形图和土地利用图(1982年和2002年)为源信息,分析了不同植被类型的蒸散量和生态用水量、流域生态用水量及其与气候和土地利用变化的关系。研究结果表明:(1)流域土地利用结构从1982-2002年间变化较大,农地(特别是梯田)增加较快,乔木林地急剧减少,主要表现为毁林、开荒和造田;(2)研究区内各种植被/土地利用类型的蒸散量和生态用水都极大地受控于气候(特别是降雨量)的影响,其年际差异较大;(3)不同植被/土地利用类型间的蒸散量和生态用水差异明显,在各个年份乔灌林的生态用水量均大于农作物和自然草地的蒸散量和生态用水量,但生态用水的差异程度小于蒸散量的差异程度;(4)以自然草地(即荒草地)为标准,农作物的蒸散量和自然草地接近,但乔灌林地的蒸散量和生态用水量均远高于自然草地,难于实现土壤水分平衡;(5)流域土地利用结构的变化(主要是强耗水植被的减少)减小了流域生态用水量,增强了流域的水分平衡能力。     

Gully erosion as a natural hazard: the educational role of geotourism

Gully erosion is one of the greatest natural hazards in the loess areas of E. (Eastern) Poland. At the same time, permanent gullies are a major tourist attraction and can provide a basis for the development of geotourism. The study objective was to assess the possibilities of using the loess gullies for educational purposes. Detailed studies were conducted within the municipality of Kazimierz Dolny, an area with an extremely high concentration of permanent gullies. The questionnaire survey of students and tourists (nearly 300 surveys were completed) showed that the respondents’ knowledge of geomorphology was limited, despite their familiarity with gullies. In most cases, they were unable to accurately identify the determinants of gully erosion, its negative effects and methods for preventing it. An assessment of the tourism and geotourism potential of the municipality made it possible to identify the sites (gullies) that can perform an educational function, with regard to gully erosion. The establishment of the Ma?opolska Vistula Gap Geopark, whose highlights will include numerous loess gullies, can pave the way for the development of geotourism.     

Gully erosion as a natural hazard: the educational role of geotourism

Gully erosion is one of the greatest natural hazards in the loess areas of E. (Eastern) Poland. At the same time, permanent gullies are a major tourist attraction and can provide a basis for the development of geotourism. The study objective was to assess the possibilities of using the loess gullies for educational purposes. Detailed studies were conducted within the municipality of Kazimierz Dolny, an area with an extremely high concentration of permanent gullies. The questionnaire survey of students and tourists (nearly 300 surveys were completed) showed that the respondents’ knowledge of geomorphology was limited, despite their familiarity with gullies. In most cases, they were unable to accurately identify the determinants of gully erosion, its negative effects and methods for preventing it. An assessment of the tourism and geotourism potential of the municipality made it possible to identify the sites (gullies) that can perform an educational function, with regard to gully erosion. The establishment of the Małopolska Vistula Gap Geopark, whose highlights will include numerous loess gullies, can pave the way for the development of geotourism.

     

From natural hazard to environmental catastrophe: Past and present

The number of environmental catastrophes is rising, mostly owing to an increase in hydrometeorological hazards. The number of disasters is escalating as the world population grows and people settle in marginal areas. In order to improve preparedness, the geological and archaeological records must be investigated as they hold a wider range of possible events than the much shorter instrumental record. Catastrophes will gain amplitude with rapid onset, long duration, larger affected area, inflexible society and, of course, convergence of threats. Too often, it seems that today's societies resist learning from the past and therefore tend to repeat errors. A new field of science is emerging: the science of environmental catastrophes, which requires not only robust chronologies to firmly link cause and effect, but also bridges the crossing between the geosciences and social sciences.     

黄土丘陵沟壑区坡面尺度撂荒草地入渗特征影响因素试验研究

为研究黄土丘陵沟壑区多种因素对撂荒草地入渗特征的影响,采用野外自然降雨观测法,研究不同降雨特征（降雨量、平均雨强、降雨历时和最大30 min雨强（I₃₀））、土壤前期含水量、坡长（10 m、20 m、30 m、40 m和50 m）和植被盖度条件下土壤入渗特征差异,通过灰色关联度法判断影响撂荒草地入渗特征的主导因子。结果表明:①入渗量随降雨量、降雨历时和I₃₀增加而增大（R2>0.55,P < 0.01）;入渗补给系数随降雨量、I₃₀和平均雨强增大而减小（R2>0.12,P < 0.05）;平均入渗率随降雨强度、I₃₀增加而递增（R2>0.53,P < 0.01）。②入渗量和平均入渗率随前期含水量增加而减少,入渗补给系数随之增加而增大（R2>0.13,P < 0.05）。③入渗量、入渗补给系数和平均入渗率总体随坡长增加而增大（R2>0.56,P < 0.01）,但在坡长30 m和40 m之间存在临界坡长。④在入渗效率较高的情况下,植被对土壤入渗的影响并不显著,降雨特征和坡长成为主导因子。     

黄土丘陵沟壑区坡面尺度撂荒草地入渗特征影响因素试验研究

为研究黄土丘陵沟壑区多种因素对撂荒草地入渗特征的影响,采用野外自然降雨观测法,研究不同降雨特征（降雨量、平均雨强、降雨历时和最大30 min雨强（I₃₀））、土壤前期含水量、坡长（10 m、20 m、30 m、40 m和50 m）和植被盖度条件下土壤入渗特征差异,通过灰色关联度法判断影响撂荒草地入渗特征的主导因子。结果表明：①入渗量随降雨量、降雨历时和I₃₀增加而增大（R²>0.55,P<0.01）;入渗补给系数随降雨量、I₃₀和平均雨强增大而减小（R²>0.12,P<0.05）;平均入渗率随降雨强度、I₃₀增加而递增（R²>0.53,P<0.01）。②入渗量和平均入渗率随前期含水量增加而减少,入渗补给系数随之增加而增大（R²>0.13,P<0.05）。③入渗量、入渗补给系数和平均入渗率总体随坡长增加而增大（R²>0.56,P<0.01）,但在坡长30 m和40 m之间存在临界坡长。④在入渗效率较高的情况下,植被对土壤入渗的影响并不显著,降雨特征和坡长成为主导因子。     

Assessment of landslide susceptibility on the natural terrain of Lantau Island, Hong Kong

 Steep terrain and the high frequency of tropical rainstorms make landslide occurrence on natural terrain a common phenomenon in Hong Kong. For example, more than 800 slope failures were triggered by a rainstorm in November 1993 on Lantau Island, Hong Kong. Maps of recent landslides interpreted from aerial photographs, in combination with a geographical information system, were used to evaluate the frequency and distribution of landslides, with particular reference to such physical parameters as lithology, slope gradient, slope aspect, elevation, vegetation cover, and proximity to drainage line, all of which are considered to be influential in the occurrence of landslides. A stepwise logistic regression model was obtained between landslide susceptibility and the above mentioned physical parameters. The study area has been classified into five classes of relative landslide susceptibility, namely, very low, low, moderate, high, and very high, based on this methodology. Received: 17 December 1999 · Accepted: 21 March 2000     

黄土地区公路崩塌危险性简易快速评价方法探讨马保成,范丽晓,田伟平

公路黄土崩塌灾害在陕北黄土地区多发、易发,给当地公路交通建设和运营造成严重危害。结合陕北$302（榆林至佳县）沿线典型路段黄土边坡的现场调研,研究公路崩塌灾害简易快速评价方法,对灾害科学评判及减灾具有重要的工程意义。首先,分析了影响黄土崩塌灾害的因素,并通过专家咨询法和相对比较评分法提取了4个关键因子作为识别指标,即破坏阶段、坡度、崩塌规模和坡高;其次,给各个识别指标赋以相应权重,对公路黄土崩塌危险性进行初步综合评价,并以K66＋100～K66＋650路段为例进行实例检验,为快速识别评价公路黄土崩塌提供了一种方法。     

基于地貌结构与汇水特征的沟谷节点提取与分析——以陕北黄土高原为例

沟谷节点是流域中线状沟谷或河网的交汇点,集中反映了沟谷的地貌结构和水文特征。有效获取并分析沟谷节点的结构与特征规律,对于系统、深入地研究流域地貌的空间形态结构、径流特征具有重要的作用。利用陕北黄土高原多地貌类型为实验区,设计并实现了基于高精度DEM的沟谷节点提取算法模型和等级标定方法,获取了实验区各级沟谷节点的数量和汇水值;运用数学模型分析法,分析了沟谷节点的数量和汇水值的分级数量关系,得到了具体的数学模拟方程;同时,运用等差分级的方式,分析了汇水累积量级差在不同地貌区的差异,初步探讨了地表形态在空间上的分异规律。     

Impacts of vehicles on natural terrain at seven sites in the San Francisco Bay area

The impacts of off-road vehicles on vegetation and soil were investigated at seven representative sites in the San Francisco Bay area. Plant cover of grass and chaparral (with shrubs to 4 m tall) have been stripped by the two- and four-wheel vehicles in use. Impacts on loamy soils include increased surface strength (as much as 275 bars), increased bulk density (averaging 18%) to depths of 90 cm or more, reduction of soil moisture by an average 43% to 30 cm depths, greatly reduced infiltration, extension of the diurnal temperature range by as much as 12°C, and reduction of organic carbon by an average 33% in exposed soils. Very sandy soils respond similarly to vehicular use except that moisture is increased and surface strength of beach sand is decreased. These physical and chemical impacts reduce the land's capability of restoring its vegetative cover, which in turn adversely affects animal populations. Both the loss of plant cover and the physical changes caused by vehicles promote erosion. Measured soil and substrate losses from vehicular use zones range from 7 to 1180 kg/m². The estimated erosion rate of the Chabot Park site exceeds the rate of erosion considered a serious problem by a factor 30, it exceeds United States Soil Conservation Service tolerance values by a factor of 46, and it exceeds average San Francisco Bay area erosion rates by a factor of 17. The resulting soil losses are effectively permanent. Neither the increased sediment yield nor the increased runoff is accomodated on the sites of use, and both are causing adverse effects to neighboring properties.     

AMT地形影响与带地形反演研究

通过设计1组二维不同宽度、不同坡度的峰谷综合地形模型,分别从极化模式、不同频率、测点位置、山顶宽度、地形落差、地形坡度、相位曲线7个方面来研究总结山区不同起伏地形对AMT资料的影响程度和畸变特征,发现TM模式较TE模式更容易受到地形影响;起伏地形对AMT响应的高频部分影响较小,而在低频部分地形影响较大,某一测点不同频点的视电阻率和相位是对应趋肤深度水平范围内所有地形的综合影响,并非仅仅是该测点附近单一山峰或山谷的影响;山顶测点较山谷测点更容易受到影响,且山顶越窄、地形落差越大、地形越陡,影响越大。此外,文章还通过对比理论模型的不带地形和带地形2D_TE模式反演结果,发现带地形的二维反演可以有效地消除地形影响,并对实测AMT资料开展带地形的二维反演,结果显示带地形的二维反演可以有效消除虚假高低阻异常,改善了“挂面条”现象,与3口钻孔的见锰层位对应较好。     

Gray swans: comparison of natural and financial hazard assessment and mitigation

Even advanced technological societies are vulnerable to natural disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, and financial disasters, such as the 2008 collapse of the US housing and financial markets. Both resulted from unrecognized or underappreciated weaknesses in hazard assessment and mitigation policies. These policies relied on models that proved inadequate for reasons including inaccurate conceptualization of the problem, use of a too-short historic record, and neglect of interconnections. Japanese hazard models did not consider the possibility of multiple fault segments failing together, causing a much larger earthquake than anticipated, and neglected historical data for much larger tsunamis than planned for. Mitigation planning underestimated the vulnerability of nuclear power plants, due to a belief in nuclear safety. The US economic models did not consider the hazard that would result if many homeowners could not pay their mortgages, and assumed, based on a short history, that housing prices would keep rising faster than interest rates. They did not anticipate the vulnerability of the financial system to a drop in housing prices, due to belief that markets functioned best without government regulation. Preventing both types of disasters from recurring involves balancing the costs and benefits of mitigation policies. A crucial aspect of this balancing is that the benefits must be estimated using models with significant uncertainties to infer the probabilities of the future events, as we illustrate using a simple model for tsunami mitigation. Improving hazard models is important because overestimating or underestimating the hazard leads to too much or too little mitigation. Thus, although one type of disaster has natural causes and the other has economic causes, comparison provides insights for improving hazard assessment and mitigation policies. Instead of viewing such disasters as unpredictable and unavoidable “black swan” events, they are better viewed as “gray swans” that—although novel and outside recent experience—can be better foreseen and mitigated.     

沟谷型泥石流地质灾害调查评价方法研究——以皖南小容泥石流地质灾害调查为例

在总结皖南地区泥石流主要特征的基础上,重新梳理了沟谷型泥石流调查评价过程中的调查要素和评价因子,提出了沟谷型泥石流调查评价工作方法:对沟谷进行泥石流初步评价,以可搬运物源量和可淤积容量比值系数作为初步评判标准;以沟谷泥石流集水盆地形态特征、可搬运物源属性分布及储量、堆积区地形等特征作为主要调查内容,对易发性评价因子赋予分值.在此基础上,以皖南小容泥石流地质灾害调查为例,探讨更直观、更科学、更切合实际的沟谷型泥石流地质灾害调查评价工作方法.     

Subsidence hazard avoidance based on geomorphological mapping in the Ebro River valley mantled evaporite karst terrain (NE Spain)

In the valley of the Ebro River to the southeast of the city of Zaragoza (NE Spain), the dissolution of evaporite sediments (gypsum, halite and Na-sulphates) which underlie alluvial deposits gives rise to numerous sinkholes. These sinkholes are a potential hazard to human safety, particularly where they develop in a catastrophic way. Even slow-developing sinkholes are problematic, as they damage urban and agricultural infrastructure, necessitating costly repairs and vigilant maintenance. To assist in developing avoidance strategies for these hazards, the factors controlling sinkhole occurrence have been assessed using geomorphological maps produced from aerial photographs for 1956 and 1981. Important controls on sinkhole development are found to include underlying geological structure (manifest in preferred orientations of sinkholes on the azimuths N130-150E and N30-40E), and the presence of glauberite in the groundwater flow path, which apparently promotes accelerated gypsum dissolution. Perhaps surprisingly, alluvium thickness does not appear to significantly correlate with the density of sinkholes on the floodplain in this area. The maps for 1956 and 1981 reveal that both human activity and natural processes can serve to obscure the true density of sinkhole development. For instance, a large number of sinkholes which were conspicuous in 1956 have since been back-filled by farmers. In the most fluvially active zone of the Ebro valley (the meander belt), the relatively low density of sinkholes compared with adjoining zones suggests that subsidence is being masked by morpho-sedimentary dynamic processes (aggradation and erosion). Careful geomorphological mapping for different time periods yields a much more accurate impression of the frequency of sinkhole development than would be gained from surveying currently visible sinkholes in the area of interest.     

Comparison of volumetric and remote sensing methods (TLS) for assessing the development of a permanent forested loess gully

The gully systems develop a compact network dissecting the loess cover of the NW part of the Lublin Upland. They are overgrown by dense and multi-storey forest assemblages. It is very difficult to apply teledetection techniques, GPS positioning, and geodesic tools, such as a laser rangefinder or total station, for monitoring of gully development. The detailed research, involving the comparison of traditional and modern methods, was conducted in a gully with a secondary erosional dissection, developing in the gully bottom with varied intensity for the last 15 years. In the period of comparative research (2012/2013), the rate of development of the erosional dissection was measured by means of traditional methods as well as a Leica HDS 7000 laser scanner. 3D laser scanning permitted precise terrain modelling and the assessment of qualitative and quantitative spatial changes. This paper compares the results of three measurement campaigns. The analysis showed intensive development of the dissection, manifested in an increase in its volume (37 %), retreat of the erosion scarp (32 m), deep erosion (19 %), and lateral erosion (27 %). Registered moderate snowmelt in 2013 caused the volume dissection to increase by 57 m³, mainly as a result of the gully bottom scouring. During heavy rainfalls in June, the landforms were widened by a further 217 m³ and observed deepening and widening of erosive potholes. The prevalence of deep erosion resulted in the transformation back into a V-shaped cross section. A total of 37.3 Mg km⁻² of material was discharged from the gully catchment during snowmelt runoffs in 2013. A precipitation event in June 2013 caused the discharge of 856.9 Mg km⁻² of material from the catchment. The obtained results confirm that snowmelt erosion determines the spatial development of perennial gullies, but the volume of material discharged from the catchment depends on the occurrence of extreme precipitation during the warm season.

     

Analysis of rainstorm-induced slide-debris flows on natural terrain of Lantau Island, Hong Kong

Lantau Island, the largest outlying island of the territory of Hong Kong, experienced a severe rainstorm on 4–5 November 1993, which induced >800 slope failures on natural terrain there. Detailed field investigations were carried out to study the failure modes, in relation with various influencing factors. It was found that the occurrence of slide-debris flows has a close relationship with bedrock geology, slope gradient, vegetation cover and micro landform. The failure modes of slide-debris flows may be classified into translational slides and rotational slides, and the former are predominant. Analysis of the hydrological response of colluvial slopes during the rainstorm indicated that the majority of the failures were caused by the development of a perched water table in the thin surface layer of colluvium of volcanic origin due to infiltration during the heavy rain. Undisturbed soil samples from south Lantau have been subjected to anisotropically consolidated undrained compression tests at comparatively low stress levels. Constant deviatoric stress path tests (CQD) simulating the stress path in the field at in situ stress levels have been performed to investigate soil behavior. The CQD test results indicate that the material of slopes at undisturbed state is brought to dilation because of the increase in pore water pressure caused by infiltration of rain water. For a translational slide, the displacement, resulting from dilation, may destroy cohesion along the failure surface and locally within the interior of the slide. The surplus water during the intense rainstorm was able to equilibrate the reduction in pore pressure caused by dilation, and the dilation and displacement may be further increased. The strain-softening after significant strains triggered debris flow mobilization. However, for a rotational slide, the increase in pore water pressure caused by surplus water infiltration during the intense rainstorm could not equilibrate the reduction in pore pressure caused by dilation, much or even all of the sliding block could not mobilize into a debris flow.     

黄土梁峁地貌矿井水水质时空变异评估与关键控制因子水源识别

针对黄土梁峁地区砂岩-泥岩互层覆岩突水水源难以准确判别以及不同水源所占比例无法定量化问题,在系统采集了陕北朱家峁煤矿地表水、地下水水样基础上,采用数理统计、Piper三线图、Gibbs图、常规水化学特征比值法,揭示了不同含水系统水化学演化规律和水源补给关系。通过分析水体稳定同位素组成演变特征,明确了不同环境背景下各类水源水质时空变异性。在此基础上,以常规、同位素特征比因子作为判别指标,构建了基于T-球型模糊聚集算子TOPSIS法(T-TOPSIS)、粗糙集理论(RST)、D-S证据理论(DSET)与单指标未知测度函数(SIUMF)的突水水源混合比例计算模型。结果表明,研究区地表水、地下水水化学类型虽均以Na-SO4·Cl为主,但两者受控因素有着明显差别,即地表水水化学成分受硅酸盐岩风化和蒸发结晶共同控制;地下水成分则主要受控于蒸发结晶作用。此外,经历了强烈蒸发作用的地表水对地下水存在一定程度的补给作用。T-TOPSISRST-DSET-SIUMF突水水源混合比例判别模型表明,陕北朱家峁煤矿50%以上的突水水源为顶板砂岩水和地表沙空沟水。三维高密度电法探测结果验证了该模型的准确性。