How Can One Test the Seismic Gap Hypothesis? The Case of Repeated Ruptures in the Aleutians

—The test that Kagan and Jackson (1991, 1995) applied to the seismic gap hypothesis did not bring us closer to understanding the generation of large earthquakes. On the contrary, it led some to the conclusion that the rebound theory of earthquake generation should be rejected. We disagree with this point of view and argue that a global test of the simplified gap hypothesis cannot be done because it cannot account for differences in the slip history of fault segments and tectonic differences between separate plate boundaries. Kagan and Jackson did show, however, that the original gap hypothesis was oversimplified and should be refined. We propose that consideration of all the facts, including slip history and seismicity patterns in the Andreanof Islands, show that the concept of seismic gaps and the elastic rebound theory are correct for that segment of the plate boundary. The coseismic slip in the M _w 8.7 earthquake that broke this plate boundary segment in 1957 was only 2 m, as published before the repeat earthquake of 1986 (M _w 8), and thus, using a plate convergence rate of 7.3 cm/year, the return time in this cycle was expected to be less than 30 years, unless substantial aseismic creep occurs. This supports the time predictable model of mainshock recurrence. In addition, Kisslinger et al. (1985) and Kisslinger (1986) noticed a seismic quiescence in the subsequent source volume before the 1986 earthquake and attempted to predict it. The specific parameters he estimated were not entirely correct although his interpretation of the observed quiescence as a precursor was. We conclude that the 1986, M _w 8, Andreanof earthquake was not an example that disproves the seismic gap hypothesis. On the contrary, it shows that the hypothesis that plate motions reload plate boundaries after most of the elastic energy is released in great ruptures was correct in this case. This suggests that great earthquakes occur preferably in mature gaps. We believe the testing of the seismic gap hypothesis by algorithm on a global scale is an example that illustrates that overly simplified tests can lead to erroneous conclusions. To make progress in the actual understanding of the physics of the process of great earthquake ruptures, one must consider all the facts known for case histories.     

Parameter Variations in the Subsoil Radon Field at the Paratunka Station of the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky Geodynamic Test Site in 2011–2016

A network of stations for subsoil radon monitoring is in operation at the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky geodynamic testing area and is aimed at detection of strong earthquake precursors. At all stations, measurements are carried out using gas-discharge counters located at different depths within aeration zones of soft sediments. The volume activity of radon (VA Rn) is monitored at the most equipped station Paratunka (PRT) at three measurement sites located across the regional fault. The radon flux density (RFD) is measured from the surface. The article reviews responses in the dynamics of VA Rn and RFD from the surface at the PRT station prior to the Kamchatka earthquakes with magnitudes М _W > 5 that occurred over the period of 2011–2016. The revealed RFD seasonal cycle is likely related to the seasonal variations in air temperature. The postseismic effect caused by the strongest deep Okhotsk earthquake (May 24, 2013, М _W = 8.3) is detected in the RFD data. The behavior of VA Rn dynamics during time periods of the strong earthquakes is different. The results confirm the existing opinion on the formation of narrowly localized zones of Rn runoff to the atmosphere owing to both vertical and horizontal irregularities in the top layer of soil, which can react differently to changes in the geoenvironment stress–strain. On the basis of the real-time radon monitoring data, the authors have issued partially successful short-term prediction for several earthquakes. The results of this work confirm the opinion of many researchers that radon monitoring can be used in the short-term prediction of strong earthquakes.     

Seismic Inventory Simulation and Conformance Test Based on the Monte Carlo Method——A Case Study of the Fenhe-Weihe Belt

Artificial earthquake catalogue simulation is one of the ways to effectively improve the incompleteness of the existing earthquake catalogue,the scarcity of large earthquake records and the improvement of seismological research.Based on the Poisson distribution model of seismic activity and the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship, the Monte Carlo method which can describe the characteristics of the stochastic nature and the physical experiment process is used.This paper simulates the future seismic catalogues of the Fenhe-Weihe seismic belt of different durations and conducts statistical tests on them. The analysis shows that the simulation catalogue meets the set seismic activity parameters and meets the Poisson distribution hypothesis,which can obtain a better simulated earthquake catalogues that meets the seismic activity characteristics.According to the simulated earthquake catalogues,future earthquake trends in this region are analyzed to provide reference for seismic hazard analysis.     

Numerical simulation of the influence of lower-crustal flow on the deformation of the Sichuan-Yunnan Region

On the basis of distribution of active fault and regional rheological structure, a three-dimensional finite element model of Sichuan-Yunnan region, China, is constructed to simulate contemporary crustal motion and stress distri- bution and discuss the dynamic mechanism of crustal motion and deformation in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Lin- ear Maxwell visco-elastic model is applied, which includes the active fault zones, the elastic upper crust and vis- cous lower crust and upper mantle. Four different models with different boundary conditions and deep structure are calculated. Some conclusions are drawn through comparison. Firstly, the crustal rotation about the eastern syntaxis of the Himalaya in the Sicuan-Yunnan region may be controlled by the special dynamic boundary condition. The drag force of the lower-crust on the upper crust is not negligible. At the same time, the main active fault zones play an important role in the contemporary crustal motion and deformation in Sichuan-Yunnan region.     

Seismotectonic destruction of the Earth’s crust in the zone of interaction of the northeastern side of the Baikal rift and the Aldan-Stanovoy block

The paper presents the modern structural-tectonic pattern and a tectonodynamic model of the zone of interaction of the most seismically active northeastern side of the Baikal rift zone (BRZ) and the conjugate system of seismogenic structures of the Aldan-Stanovoy block, where disastrous events with M ≥ 6.0 have been reported. Regularities in the structural formation of active faults and their kinematics are discussed. The faults form block structures accumulating significant tectonic strain. Motions between large tectonic blocks cause sudden release of the strain, which results in catastrophic events (M ≥ 6.0) with focal mechanisms of definite kinematic type.     

Kinematic features of the seismogenic fault of the Tangshan earthquake and the recurrence period of large earthquakes

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Manifestation of the Lunar–Solar Tide and Free Oscillations of the Earth in the Variations of the Magnetic Field

The results of processing and analyzing the instrumental observations of the Earth’s magnetic field at the Geophysical Observatory Mikhnevo of the Institute of Geosphere Dynamics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IGD RAS) for 2010–2015 are presented. Quasi-harmonic components with the periods close to the lunar–solar tidal waves are revealed in the spectra of geomagnetic variations over a period of 0.4 to 30 days. The elliptical S₁ tidal wave which is detected in the geomagnetic variations has modulations with periods of 1/3, 1/2, and 1 year. The spectra of the geomagnetic variations contain peaks corresponding to the free oscillations of the Earth. The analysis of the time series of the magnetic field for the period of the strong earthquakes in the absence of geomagnetic disturbances revealed the fine structure of the Earth’s fundamental spheroidal mode ₀S₂, which splits into five singlets. The established features of the spectrum of geomagnetic variations are helping the development of the new method for studying the deep structure of the Earth and the properties of the inner geospheres for estimating the viscosity of the Earth’s outer core and dynamics of the current systems in the outer (liquid) core, as well as for exploring, with the use of empirical data, the general regularities governing the regimes of energy exchange processes in the geospheres.     

Oil contamination of sedimentary shores of the Galápagos Islands following the wreck of the Jessica

Sediment samples were collected from sandy beaches at a variety of sites in the southern Galápagos Archipelago to assess levels of hydrocarbon contamination following the wreck of the oil tanker Jessica. Hydrocarbon levels in sediments were generally very low by international standards ranging between 0.4 and 48.9 ppm, with contamination attributable to the Jessica only detected at three sites Santa Fe, Playa Estación (Puerto Ayora, Santa Cruz) and Long Beach (Isabela). There was evidence of residual hydrocarbon contamination from sources other than the wreck of the Jessica.     

Tomographic study of the deep tectonics in the Yecheng-Shiquanhe area of the Tibetan Plateau

The profile crossing the west Kunlun region cov-ers the area between the Tarim Basin and the Kara-korum Fault, which is the highest (~5000 m a.s.l.) andthe most narrow part (400—500 km from north tosouth) of the Tibetan Plateau, thus attracting great at-tention of the geological community because of itsunique tectonic features. The Geological Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Auton-omous Region and Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS) carried out mineral exploration and geologicalmapping in th…     

Dynamical diagnosis of the breakup of the stratospheric polar vortex in the Northern Hemisphere

The research on climate change in polar regions, especially on the role of polar in the global climate system, has gain unprecedented level of interest. It has been the key scientific issue of the International Polar Year program (IPY, 2007―2008). In this paper, we dealt with the debate upon the breakup time of the stratospheric polar vortex in boreal spring. An observational study of the relation between strato- spheric polar vortex breakup and the extra-tropical circulation was performed. The mean breakup date―when the winter westerly at the core of polar jet turns to summer easterly―is about April 10. The breakup time has large interannual variation with a time span of about 2 months. It also has a long-term trend with the 1990s and 2000s witnessing more and more late breakups of polar vortex. Composite of wind speed at the core of polar jet for the extremely early and late breakup years shows that late years have two periods of westerly weakening while early breakup years have only one. The first weakening in the late years happens in middle January with wind speed dropping sharply from more than 40 m s?1 to about 15 m s?1. This is accompanied with anomalous activities of planetary waves in both strato- sphere and troposphere; while the second weakening in the late breaking years is mainly the results of diabatic heating with very weak wave activities. In early breakup years, the transition from westerly to easterly is rapid with wind speed dropping from more than 30 m s?1 to less than ?10 m s?1 within a month. This evolution is associated with a strong bidirectional dynamical coupling of the stratosphere and troposphere. The circulation anomalies at low troposphere are also analyzed in the extremely early and late breakup years. It shows that there are significant differences between the two kinds of extreme years in the geopotential height and temperature composite analysis, indicating the dynamical cou- pling of stratosphere and troposphere with the evolution of stratospheric polar vortex.     

Characteristics of the Activity of the Lintong-Chang＇an Fault in the Late Pleistocene

Analysis of fault outcrops and trench sections indicates fault displacements of 0.2m - 6.0 m on the bottom paleosol layer of the Epipleistocene with the maximum rate of 0.047 mm/a and an average displacement of 1.1 meters. The activity appears as fissures on the fault surface in the late Epipleistocene and there is no obvious displacement. The fault activity is weak and the most active segment is the Bailuyuan segment.     

County Shelter Planning from the Perspective of the Demands of the Vulnerable?Based on the Survey of the 6·17 Changning Earthquake

县域避难场所规划建设薄弱,灾后老年人等避难弱者的需求不能得到充分满足。长宁“6·17”地震发生后,笔者赴灾区调研,对老人、妇女、儿童等避难弱者进行访谈,深入了解避难弱者的避难经历、对避难场所的认知及相关需求,总结避难弱者在灾后初期、中期、后期阶段的需求变化及对避难空间的诉求。在避难弱者需求视角下提出县域避难场所规划提升措施,包括建立避难弱者数据库、优化避难场所选址、提高避难场所建设标准、加强对避难弱者“定制化”的防灾宣传和避难引导等,以保障避难弱者的生命安全,提升避难生活质量。     

Study of the Seismicity of Strong Earthquakes in the Yunnan Area

INTRODUCTIONYunnanis located in the east margin of the collision zone between the India Plate and theEurasian Plate on the Chinese Continent , where crustal movement is violent and moderate-strongearthquakes are frequent withlarge magnitudes and wide distributions .It is also a place of particularinterest to geo-science researchers both at home and abroad. Since 1970 , 8 earthquakes withmagnitude 7·0 have occurred here .It is a perfect site to study seismicity.Whether or not seismicit…     

On the relation of variations in the travel times of seismic waves with the changes in the speed of the Earth’s rotation

The results of long-term sounding of the lithosphere by seismic waves from the deep-focus Hindu Kush earthquakes are presented. The travel time series of the first longitudinal wave on a fixed base are constructed for six seismic observation stations (SS) located on the Russian Platform (the Obninsk SS), on the Siberian Platform (the Eltsovka SS), on the Cis-Ural Trough (the Arti SS), in the Central-Ural Megazone (the Sverdlovsk SS), in the Transbaikalia (the Bodaibo SS), and in the Northern Tien Shan (the Przhevalsk SS). The time series duration in years for these stations ranged from 1964–1970 to 2007. The travel time series of seismic waves for the stations indicated are characterized by multi-slope negative linear trends caused by changes in the stress-strain state of rocks. From the comparison of the trend slopes at different stations it follows that the changes in the stress conditions within the lithosphere are relatively weak in the aseismic regions of the Russian and Siberian Platforms and in the Ural Megazone, whereas in the seismically active regions of Tien Shan, Transbaikalia and the Cis-Ural Trough they are more pronounced. The correlation has been observed between the time series trends of the average annual travel times of seismic waves and the time series of the Earth’s rotation speed. The strongest correlation between the series can be seen for the stations, located on the platforms with weak manifestations of both seismicity and active geodynamic processes. Within the long-term periods of deceleration and acceleration of the Earth’s rotation, travel times of seismic waves are decreased and increased, respectively.     

The Precursory Meanings of the Deviation of the Magnitude- Frequency Distribution of Earthquakes from the Gutenberg- Richter Law

INTRODUCTIONThe famousformulalgN=a-bMwas put forward by Gutenbergand Richter (1944) ,accordinto seismicity studies in California . From then on, the magnitude-frequency distribution of thearthquakes within a certain area was considered one of the most important features of seismicity,anwas widely used (Tsuneji Rikitake ,1978 ;Li Shanbang,1981 ;Geng Luming,1993) .In particularthe coefficientbinthe formula is commonly appliedinresearchinto earthquake precursors relatingstrongearthquakes…     

Consistency of Magnitudes of the Largest Earthquakes of the First Half of the 20TH Century Determined on the Basis of Göttingen and Zagreb Wiechert Seismograms

The magnitudes (M _S , m _bP , m _bS ) of the largest historical earthquakes which occurred in the first half of the 20 ^th century, calculated on the basis of records of Wiechert horizontal seismographs in Göttingen (Germany) and Zagreb (Croatia), are compared with one another, as well as with the magnitudes reported in worldwide catalogues. Systematic trends are observed in the data regarding the temporal stability of magnitude estimations in Göttingen, as well as the apparent non-linearity of the instrument responsle in the case of the Wiechert seismograph in Zagreb. We were unable to clearly identify their causes – possible explanations include effects caused by the interaction of the seismometer's frame and mass, as well as local soil conditions, but nonhomogeneity of the reference catalogues cannot be ruled out. The results indicate that a careful re-examination and cross-checking of the reported magnitude figures for the earthquakes from the first half of the 20th century is required.     

Study of the segmentation of active fault by the boundary element method──analysis of the Xianshuihe fault zone

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Research on the Result of Calibration for the Location of the Seismic Array in Shanghai

The paper proposes the calibration theory and methods for the Shanghai seismic array and analyzes the calibration results. As a result, the calibration results for the seismic array based on 2 typical earthquakes have been drawn; the difference of calibration results between Hokkaido and Honshu region in Japan is investigated. And calibration results of different directions, different epicenter distances and different magnitudes are probed into. The result shows that the location of earthquakes on the Shanghai seismic array is greatly improved.     

Correction to the crustal thickness of the northwestern China using the data of seis-mic tomography

Introduction The gravity anomaly is an indicator of the density distribution of the underground material. Therefore the gravity anomalies have been important data used for studying the deep crustal struc-ture for a long time. Many people have made detailed researches on the regional crustal structure inverted by Bouguer anomalies. In particular some empirical formulae and practical algorithms about the crustal thickness were brought forward, and a series of results were obtained (MENG, 1996)…