Nature of the macroseismic paradox of the deep-focus earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk on May 24, 2013 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> <Subscript> <Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis> </Subscript> = 8.3)

We analyzed macroseismic data and considered the effect of extremely long range propagation of sensible shocks during the deep-focus earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk on May 24, 2013 (M_w = 8.3). In order to explain this effect, we formulated and qualitatively solved the problem of superposition of P-waves over the radial mode ₀S₀ of the natural oscillations of the Earth during this earthquake. Our results confirmed the possibility of such an interpretation of the observed macroseismic effect and also allowed us to explain the fact of anomalously low decay of seismic disturbances with distance.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Constantine region,Northeast of Algeria

This paper presents a seismic hazard evaluation and develops an earthquake catalogue for the Constantine region over the period from 1357 to 2014. The study contributes to the improvement of seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazards in Northeast Algeria. A regional seismicity analysis was conducted based on reliable earthquake data obtained from various agencies (CRAAG, IGN, USGS and ISC). All magnitudes (M _l, m _b) and intensities (I ₀, I _MM, I _MSK and I _EMS) were converted to M _s magnitudes using the appropriate relationships. Earthquake hazard maps were created for the Constantine region. These maps were estimated in terms of spectral acceleration (SA) at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 s. Five seismogenic zones are proposed. This new method differs from the conventional method because it incorporates earthquake magnitude uncertainty and mixed datasets containing large historical events and recent data. The method can be used to estimate the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, annual activity rate λ(M) of an event and maximum possible magnitude M _max using incomplete and heterogeneous data files. In addition, an earthquake is considered a Poisson with an annual activity rate λ and with a doubly truncated exponential earthquake magnitude distribution. Map of seismic hazard and an earthquake catalogue, graphs and maps were created using geographic information systems (GIS), the Z-map code version 6 and Crisis software 2012.     

Earthquake hazard and risk assessment based on unified scaling law for earthquakes: Altai–Sayan Region

We apply the general concept of seismic risk analysis based on morphostructural analysis of the territory, pattern recognition of earthquake-prone nodes, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, in another seismic region of Russia to the west from Lake Baikal, i.e., Altai–Sayan Region. The USLE generalizes the empirical Gutenberg–Richter relationship making use of apparently fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size: \( \log_{10} N\left( {M,L} \right)\, = \,A\, + \,B \cdot \left( {5\, - \,M} \right)\, + \,C \cdot \log_{10} L, \) where N (M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. The local estimates of A, B, and C allow determination of the expected maximum credible magnitude in a given time interval and the associated spread around ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macroseismic intensity, I₀). Compilation of the corresponding seismic hazard map of Altai–Sayan Region and its rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past is used to model regional maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures.     

Evaluating of the earthquake hazard parameters with Bayesian method for the different seismic source regions of the North Anatolian Fault Zone

The earthquake hazard parameters and earthquake occurrence probabilities are computed for the different regions of the North Anatolia Fault Zone (NAFZ) using Bayesian method. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M _S magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for a time period between 1900 and 2015. Only two historical earthquakes (1766, M _S = 7. 3 and 1897, M _S = 7. 0) are included in Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the near future since no large earthquake has been observed for the instrumental period. In order to evaluate earthquake hazard parameters for next 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 years, M _max (maximum regional magnitude), β value, λ (seismic activity or density) are computed for the different regions of NAFZ. The computed M _max values are changed between 7.11 and 7.89. While the highest magnitude value is calculated in the Region 9 related to Tokat-Erzincan, the lowest value in the Region 10 including the eastern of Erzincan. The “quantiles” of “apparent” and “true” magnitudes of future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years are calculated for confidence limits of probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % of the 10 different seismic source regions. The region between Tokat and Erzincan has earthquake hazard level according to the determined parameters. In this region the expected maximum earthquake size is 7.8 with 90 % occurrence probability in next 100 years. While the regional M _max value of Marmara Region is computed as 7.61, expected maximum earthquake size is 7.37 with 90 % occurrence probability in next 100 years.     

Site response of the Ganges basin inferred from re-evaluated macroseismic observations from the 1897 Shillong, 1905 Kangra,and 1934 Nepal earthquakes

We analyze previously published geodetic data and intensity values for the M _s = 8.1 Shillong (1897), M _s = 7.8 Kangra (1905), and M _s = 8.2 Nepal/Bihar (1934) earthquakes to investigate the rupture zones of these earthquakes as well as the amplification of ground motions throughout the Punjab, Ganges and Brahmaputra valleys. For each earthquake we subtract the observed MSK intensities from a synthetic intensity derived from an inferred planar rupture model of the earthquake, combined with an attenuation function derived from instrumentally recorded earthquakes. The resulting residuals are contoured to identify regions of anomalous intensity caused primarily by local site effects. Observations indicative of liquefaction are treated separately from other indications of shaking severity lest they inflate inferred residual shaking estimates. Despite this precaution we find that intensites are 1–3 units higher near the major rivers, as well as at the edges of the Ganges basin. We find evidence for a post-critical Moho reflection from the 1897 and 1905 earthquakes that raises intensities 1–2 units at distances of the order of 150 km from the rupture zone, and we find that the 1905 earthquake triggered a substantial subsequent earthquake at Dehra Dun, at a distance of approximately 150 km. Four or more M = 8 earthquakes are apparently overdue in the region based on seismic moment summation in the past 500 years. Results from the current study permit anticipated intensities in these future earthquakes to be refined to incorporate site effects derived from dense macroseismic data.     

Seismic hazard scenario and attenuation model of the Garhwal Himalaya using near-field synthesis from weak motion seismometry

In this paper, we present a seismic hazard scenario for the Garhwal region of the north-western Himalayan range, in terms of the horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration. The scenario earthquake of moment magnitude M _w 8.5 has a 10% exceedance probability over the next 50 years. These estimates, the first for the region, were calculated through a stepwise process based on:

• An estimation of the Maximum Credible Earthquake from the seismicity of the region and Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program considerations, and
• four seismotectonic parameters abstracted from near field weak-motion data recorded at five stations installed in Chamoli District of the Garhwal region in the aftermath of the 1999 Chamoli earthquake. The latter include
• The frequency dependent power law for the shear wave quality factor, Q _S
• the site amplification at each station using horizontal-to-vertical-spectral ratio and generalized inversion technique
• source parameters of various events recorded by the array and application of the resulting relations between the scalar seismic moment M ₀ (dyne-cm) and moment magnitude M _w and the corner frequency, ? _c (Hz) and moment magnitude M _w to simulate spectral acceleration due to higher magnitude events corresponding to the estimated Maximum Credible Earthquake, and
• regional and site specific local spectral attenuation relations at different geometrically central frequencies in the low, moderate and high frequency bands.

     

The character of scaling earthquake source spectra for Kamchatka in the 3.5–6.5 magnitude range

The properties of the source spectra of local shallow-focus earthquakes on Kamchatka in the range of magnitudes M _w = 3.5–6.5 are studied using 460 records of S-waves obtained at the PET station. The family of average source spectra is constructed; the spectra are used to study the relationship between M _w and the key quasi-dimensionless source parameters: stress drop Δσ and apparent stress σ_a. It is found that the parameter Δσ is almost stable, while σ_a grows steadily as the magnitude M _w increases, indicating that the similarity is violated. It is known that at sufficiently large M _w the similarity hypothesis is approximately valid: both parameters Δσ and σ_a do not show any noticeable magnitude dependence. It has been established that M _w ≈ 5.7 is the threshold value of the magnitude when the change in regimes described occurs for the conditions on Kamchatka.     

Climate extremes: an observation and projection of its impacts on food production in ASEAN

Multifractal behaviour of interevent time sequences is investigated for the earthquake events in the NW Himalaya, which is one of the most seismically active zones of India and experienced moderate to large damaging earthquakes in the past. In the present study, the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is used to understand the multifractal behaviour of the earthquake data. For this purpose, a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue of the period 1965–2013 with a magnitude of completeness M _w 4.3 is used. The analysis revealed the presence of multifractal behaviour and sharp changes near the occurrence of three earthquakes of magnitude (M _w ) greater than 6.6 including the October 2005, Muzaffarabad–Kashmir earthquake. The multifractal spectrum and related parameters are explored to understand the time dynamics and clustering of the events.     

Precursory seismicity rate changes prior to the large and major earthquakes along the Sagaing fault zone,Central Myanmar

In this study, the seismicity rate changes that can represent an earthquake precursor were investigated along the Sagaing Fault Zone (SFZ), Central Myanmar, using the Z value technique. After statistical improvement of the existing seismicity data (the instrumental earthquake records) by removal of the foreshocks and aftershocks and man-made seismicity changes and standardization of the reported magnitude scales, 3574 earthquake events with a M _w ≥ 4.2 reported during 1977–2015 were found to directly represent the seismotectonic activities of the SFZ. To find the characteristic parameters specifically suitable for the SFZ, seven known events of M _w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes were recognized and used for retrospective tests. As a result, utilizing the conditions of 25 fixed earthquake events considered (N) and a 2-year time window (T _w), a significantly high Z value was found to precede most of the M _w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes. Therefore, to evaluate the prospective areas of upcoming earthquakes, these conditions (N = 25 and T _w = 2) were applied with the most up-to-date seismicity data of 2010–2015. The results illustrate that the vicinity of Myitkyina and Naypyidaw (Z = 4.2–5.1) cities might be subject to strong or major earthquakes in the future.     

Application of time- and magnitude-predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in Iran

The regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied successfully in diverse regions of the world to describe the occurrence of main shocks. In the current study, the model has been calibrated against the historical and instrumental catalog of Iranian earthquakes. The Iranian plateau is divided into 15 seismogenic provinces; then, the interevent times for strong main shocks have been determined for each one. The empirical relations reported by Papazachos et al. (Tectonophysics 271:295–323, 1997a) for the Alpine–Himalayan belt (including Iran) were adopted except for the constant terms that were calculated separately for every seismotectonic area. By using the calibrated equations developed for the study area and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of the last main shocks in each seismogenic source, the time-dependent conditional probabilities of occurrence P(?t) of the next main shocks during next 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years as well as the magnitude of the expected main shocks (M _f) have been estimated. The immediate probability (within next 10 years) of a large main shock is estimated to be high and moderate (>35 %) in all regions except zones 9 (M _f = 5.8) and 15 (M _f = 6.1). However, it should be noted that the probabilities have been estimated for different M _f values in 15 regions. Comparing the model predictions with the actual earthquake occurrence rates shows the good performance of the model for Iranian plateau.     

Simulation of suspended sediment based on gamma test,heuristic, and regression-based techniques

In the present study, four different heuristic techniques viz. multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis function (RBF), self-organizing maps (SOM), and co-active neuro-fuzzy inference system (CANFIS) with hyperbolic tangent and sigmoid transfer functions and two regression-based techniques, i.e., multiple linear regression (MLR) and sediment-rating curve (SRC), were used for suspended sediment modeling. Gamma test (GT), correlation function (CF), M test, and trail–error procedure were applied for estimation of appropriate input variables as well as training data length. The results of the GT and CF suggested the five input variables (Q_t, Q_t?1, Q_t?2, S_t?1, and S_t?2, where Q_t?1 and S_t?1 indicate the discharge and sediment values of one previous day) as the best combination. The optimal training data length (75% of total data) was estimated by M test and trail–error procedure for development of the applied models. The MLP with sigmoid transfer function (M-2) performed better than the all other models. The results of sensitivity analysis indicated that the present-day discharge (Q_t), 1-day lag discharge (Q_t?1) and 1-day lag suspended sediment (S_t?1) are the most influenced parameters in modeling current day suspended sediment (S_t).     

Masses of the visual components and black holes in X-ray novae: Effects of proximity of the components

It is shown that the approximation of the complex, tidally distorted shape of a star as a circular disc with local line profiles and a linear limb-darkening law, which is usually applied when deriving equatorial stellar rotation velocities from line profiles, leads to overestimation of the equatorial velocity V _rot sin i and underestimation of the component mass ratio q = M _x /M _v . A formula enabling correction of the effect of these simplifying assumptions on the shape of a star is used to re-determine the mass ratios q and the masses of the black holes M _x and visual components M _v in low-mass X-ray binary systems containing black holes. Taking into account the tidal–rotational distortion of the stellar shape can significantly increase the mass ratios q = M _x /M _v , reducing M _v , while M _x changes only slightly. The resulting distribution of M _v attains its maximum near M _v ? 0.35M _⊙, in disagreement with the results of population synthesis computations realizing standard models for Galactic X-ray novae with black holes. Possible ways to overcome this inconsistency are discussed. The derived distribution of M _x also differs strongly from the mass distribution for massive stars in the Galaxy.     

Seismic source characteristics in Kachchh and Saurashtra regions of Western India: <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-value and fractal dimension mapping of aftershock sequences

Seismic source characteristics in the Kachchh rift basin and Saurashtra horst tectonic blocks in the stable continental region (SCR) of western peninsular India are studied using the earthquake catalog data for the period 2006–2011 recorded by a 52-station broadband seismic network known as Gujarat State Network (GSNet) running by Institute of Seismological Research (ISR), Gujarat. These data are mainly the aftershock sequences of three mainshocks, the 2001 Bhuj earthquake (M _w 7.7) in the Kachchh rift basin, and the 2007 and 2011 Talala earthquakes (M _w ≥ 5.0) in the Saurashtra horst. Two important seismological parameters, the frequency–magnitude relation (b-value) and the fractal correlation dimension (D _c) of the hypocenters, are estimated. The b-value and the D _c maps indicate a difference in seismic characteristics of these two tectonic regions. The average b-value in Kachchh region is 1.2 ± 0.05 and that in the Saurashtra region 0.7 ± 0.04. The average D _c in Kachchh is 2.64 ± 0.01 and in Saurashtra 2.46 ± 0.01. The hypocenters in Kachchh rift basin cluster at a depth range 20–35 km and that in Saurashtra at 5–10 km. The b-value and D _c cross sections image the seismogenic structures that shed new light on seismotectonics of these two tectonic regions. The mainshock sources at depth are identified as lower b-value or stressed zones at the fault end. Crustal heterogeneities are well reflected in the maps as well as in the cross sections. We also find a positive correlation between b- and D _c-values in both the tectonic regions.     

Development of a technique for IR spectroscopic determination of nitrogen content and aggregation degree in diamond crystals

A technique for IR spectroscopic determination of the total nitrogen content N _S in the form of A-and B ₁-defects is suggested. It provides for the computer processing and decomposition of IR spectra into constituent bands, calculation of the total absorption band area S _N and individual areas S _A and S _B1 and their normalization with respect to the total area of the diamond intrinsic absorption S ₀, with the normalization coefficients K _S , K _A , and K _B1 being calculated. Based on the analysis of the IR spectra of 60 octahedral diamond crystals from the Mir and Yubileinaya pipes (Sakha-Yakutiya), the empirical functions N _S = 911.85 K _S ^0.9919 ppm (R ² = 0.9859), N _A = 1185.6 K _A ^1.1511 ppm (R ² = 0.8703), and N _B1 = 911.85 K _S ^0.9919 ? 1185.6 K _A ^1.1511 ppm have been defined.     

Radial pulsations of helium stars and a model for BX CIR

The results of hydrodynamical calculations of radially pulsating helium stars with masses 0.5M_⊙≤M≤0.9M_⊙, bolometric luminosities 600L_⊙≤5×10³L_⊙, and effective temperatures 1.5×10⁴ K≤T_eff≤3.5×10⁴ K are presented. The pulsation instability of these stars is due to the effects of ionization of iron-group elements in layers with temperatures T～2×10⁵ K. The calculations were carried out using opacities for the relative mass abundances of hydrogen and heavy elements X=0 and Z=0.01, 0.015, and 0.02. Approximate formulas for the pulsation constant Q over the entire range of pulsation instability of the hot helium stars in terms of the mass M, radius R, effective temperature T_eff, and heavy-element abundance Z are derived. The instability of BX Cir to radial pulsations with the observed period Π=0.1066 d occurs only for a mass M≥0.55M_⊙, effective temperature T_eff≥23000 K, and heavy-element abundance Z≥0.015. The allowed mass of BX Cir is in the range 0.55M_⊙≤M≤0.8M_⊙, which corresponds to luminosities 800L_⊙≤M≤1400L_⊙ and mean radii 1.7R_⊙?R?2.1R_⊙.     

The probable quadruple systems FK Aql and FZ Del

Orbital-period variations of the eclipsing binaries FK Aql and FZ Del are analyzed. For each of the systems, a superposition of two cyclic variations of their orbital periods is found. FK Aql may be a quadruple system that contains two more bodies, besides the eclipsing binary, with masses M ₃ ? 1.75M _⊙ and M ₄ ? 1.47M _⊙, and the corresponding periods 15 and 82 yrs. This could also be a triple system with a third body of mass M ₃ ? 1.75M _⊙ and a period of the long-period orbit P ₃ = 15 yrs, or with a third body of mass M ₃ ? 1.30M _⊙ and a period of the long-period orbit P ₃ = 82 yrs. FZ Del may be a quadruple system with the additional componentmasses M ₃ ? 0.2M _⊙ and M ₄ ? 0.3M _⊙, with the periods 10.2 and 53.7 yrs. This could also be a triple system with a third-body mass M ₃ ? 0.2M _⊙ and a period of the long-period orbit P ₃ = 10.2 yrs. In both systems, the residual period variations could be due to magnetic cycles of the secondary. The period variations of the eclipsing binary FZ Del could also be due to apsidal motion, together with the influence of a third body or the effects of magnetic activity.     

Towards a better understanding of the evolution of the flood risk in Mediterranean urban areas: the case of Barcelona

Dam failure constitutes a grave threat to human life. However, there is still a lack of systematic and comprehensive research on the loss of life (L) caused by dam break in China. From the perspective of protecting human life, a new calculation method for L occurred in dam break floods is put forward. Fourteen dam failure cases in China are selected as the basic data by three-dimensional stratified sampling, balancing spatial, vertical elevation and temporal representations, as well as considering various conditions of the dam collapse. The method includes three progressive steps: Firstly, some impact factors of loss of life (IFL) are selected by literature survey, i.e., severity of dam break flood (S _F), population at risk (P _R), understanding of dam break (U _B), warning time (T _W) and evacuation condition (E _C). And the other IFL of weather during dam break (W _B), dam break mode (M _B), water storage (S _W), building vulnerability (V _B), dam break time (T _B) and average distance from affected area to dam (D _D) are also taken into account to get a more comprehensive consideration. According to disaster system and disaster risk, these eleven IFL are divided into four categories. Through the improved entropy method, eight key IFL are further selected out of the eleven. Secondly, four L modules are built based on four categories, which are L-causing factor module (M ₁), L-prone environment module (M ₂), affected body module (M ₃) and rescue condition module (M ₄). Eventually, by using two methods of multivariate nonlinear regression and leave-one-out cross-validation in combination with coupled four modules, the calculation method for L is established. Compared with the results of Graham method and D&M method, the result of the proposed one is much closer to the actual value and performs better in fitting effect and regional applicability. In the application, L calculation and consequence assessment are carried out in the example of Hengjiang reservoir that has already broken down. At the same time, L calculation and risk prediction are used in the analysis of Yunshan reservoir, which is under planning. The proposed method can not only be applied to estimate L and its rate (f _L ) under various types of dam break conditions in China, but also provide a reliable consequence assessment and prediction approach to reduce the risk of L.     

The impact of reflection effects on the parameters of the old pre-cataclysmic variables MS Peg and LM Com

We have determined the main parameters of the old precataclysmic variable stars MS Peg and LM Com. The radial velocities of the components, reflection effects in the spectra, and light curves of the systems are studied based on model stellar atmospheres subject to external irradiation. Forty-seven moderate-resolution spectra for MS Peg and 57 for LM Com obtained with the 6-m telescope of the Special Astrophysical Observatory are used to derive the refined orbital periods of 0.1736660 days and 0.2586873 days, respectively; the orbital eccentricities do not exceed e=0.04. The mass (M _w =0.49e_⊙) and radius (e _w =0.015R_⊙) of the MS Peg primary calculated using the gravitational redshift correspond to those for a cooling carbon white dwarf with a thin hydrogen envelope. The parameters of the red dwarf (M _r =0.19M_⊙, T_eff=3560 K, R _r =0.18R_⊙) are close to those derived from evolutionary tracks for main-sequence M stars with solar chemical composition. The radius (R _r =0.22R_⊙) and temperature (T_eff=3650 K) of the LM Com secondary exceed theoretical estimates for main-sequence stars with masses of M _r =0.17M_⊙. The luminosity excess of the red dwarf in LM Com can be explained by a prolonged (T>5×10⁶ yrs) relaxation of the M star to its normal state after the binary leaves the common-envelope stage. For both systems, theoretical U, B, V, and R light curves and spectra calculated using the adopted sets of parameters are generally consistent with the observations. This confirms the radiative origin of the hot spots, the unimportance of horizontal radiative transport, and the absence of large-scale velocity fields with high values (V_trans>50 km/s) at the surfaces of the secondaries. Most of the emission lines in the spectra of these objects are formed under conditions close to thermalization, enabling modeling of their pro files in an LTE approximation. A strong λ3905 Å emission line has been identified as the 3s²3p4s 1P⁰-3s²3p² 1S SiI λ3905.52 Å line formed in the atmosphere of the hot spot. The observed intensity can be explained by non-LTE “superionization” of SiI atoms by soft UV radiation from the white dwarf. We suggest a technique for identifying binaries whose cool components are subject to UV irradiation based on observations of λ3905 Å emission in their spectra.     

Sequence signal processing of 2012 Ahar–Varzaghan earthquake (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript> 6.4) of NW Iran

Before starting seismic cycle of Ahar–Varzaghan 2012 event, a partial gap in the form of a pre-seismic calm sequence (seismicity rate, r = 0.46 event/year, b = 1.4) with duration of 303 days spatially has dominated over the entire seismogenic area. From April 17, 2012, to May 31, 2012, r significantly increased to 2.16, indicating strong foreshock sequence, and b value changed to 1.9, remarkably. In the last two months before the mainshock, foreshocks have partially migrated toward the earthquake fault (with a decrease in size, b = 2.0). Significantly, high rate of seismicity and low V _P /V _S (1.64) in the foreshocks sequence and also very high seismicity rate (17.3) and high V _P /V _S (1.76) in the aftershocks sequence make substantial differences between the seismic cycle and the background seismicity. Moreover, a significant E–W migration of the microseismicity was confirmed in the study area.     

Supermassive black holes: Relation to dark halos

Estimates of the masses of supermassive black holes (M _bh ) in the nuclei of disk galaxies with known rotation curves are compared with estimates of the rotational velocities V _m and the “indicative” masses of the galaxies M _i . Although there is a correlation between M _bh and V _m or M _i , it is appreciably weaker than the correlation with the central velocity dispersion. The values of M _bh for early-type galaxies (S0-Sab), which have more massive bulges, are, on average, higher than the values for late-type galaxies with the same rotational velocities. We conclude that the black-hole masses are determined primarily by the properties of the bulge and not the rotational velocity or the mass of the galaxy.