Analysis of a 200 year snow accumulation series from the South Pole

Summary The reliability of mean and annual net accumulation values determined at the South Pole from stratigraphic studies is demonstrated by a comparison with measurements of snow accumulation made at stake networks from 1958 to 1963. The annual values in the series 1760–1957 are used to compute the temporal variability of accumulation. The procedure to estimate the errors in the identification of annual layers is discussed, and the significance of these errors in the analysis of the series is examined. The variability of the 198 annual accumulation values is slightly less than that of precipitation series obtained at two stations, one at high latitude and one at high elevation. A variance analysis of the South Pole series indicates that there is, with a high degree of probability, an increase in the rate of snow accumulation with time not due to chance, from approximately 5.4 g·cm^–2·yr^–1 in the first 66 years (1760–1825) to approximately 7.5 g·cm^–2·yr^–1 in the last 66 years of the series. The area of the region for which there is a positive secular change in the rate of accumulation during the last 200 years remains unknown. The serial correlation computed for time lags from one to twelve years shows that significant periodicities do not exist in this series. The identification of annual layers in five isolated sets comprising from 4 to 8 layers each and included in the period 1536±42–1760±13 suggests that the mean accumulation for the period circa 1550–1750 is approximately the same as that determined in the 1760–1957 series.

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Zusammenfassung Das Hauptziel der Arbeit ist die Untersuchung einer 198jährigen Reihe von Schnee-Akkumulationswerten am Südpol. Zunächst wird durch einen Vergleich mit direkten Messungen für die Jahre 1958 bis 1963 gezeigt, daß die stratigraphisch bestimmten Jahresschichten als repräsentativ für den Netto-Jahres-Schneeniederschlag angesehen werden können. Die verschiedenen Fehlerquellen werden diskutiert und ihr Einfluß auf die nachfolgende Analyse des säkularen Ganges wird geprüft. Die Streuung der jährlichen Akkumulationswerte erweist sich als etwas geringer als die langjähriger Niederschlagsreihen von Stationen in hohen Breiten bzw. großer Höhenlage. Mittels einer Varianzanalyse (Streuungszerlegung) wird sodann gezeigt, daß die beobachteteZunahme der Akkumulationswerte, von etwa 5.4 Gramm/cm² pro Jahr im Mittel der ersten 66 Jahre (1760 bis 1825) auf etwa 7.5 Gramm/cm² pro Jahr im Mittel der letzten 66 Jahre, mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeitnicht durch Zufall allein bedingt sein kann. Eine Autokorrelationsrechnung mit 1 bis 12 Jahren Zeitverzug ergibt, daß die Beobachtungsreihe keine signifikanten Perioden dieser Größenordnung enthält. Schließlich werden noch stratigraphische Messungen in größerer Tiefe des Südpol-Schachts (Jahre vor 1760), in denen die Jahresschichten weniger klar nachweisbar sind, besprochen.

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Résumé Le but principal du présent travail est l'étude d'une série de 198 ans des valeurs de l'accumulation de la neige au pôle sud. On démontre tout d'abord que les couches annuelles déterminées stratigraphiquement peuvent être considérées comme représentatives des précipitations neigeuses nettes de l'année. Pour cela, on se sert par comparaison de mesures directes faites de 1958 à 1963. On discute diverses sources d'erreurs et examine leur influence sur l'analyse subséquente de l'évolution séculaire. La dispersion des accumulations annuelles est légèrement plus faible que celle des longues séries de mesure des précipitations effectuées soit à des latitudes élevées soit à grande altitude. Au moyen d'une analyse des variances, on démontre quel'augmentation des valeurs de l'accumulation de 5,4 g/cm² environ (en moyenne annuelle) des 66 premières années (1760 à 1825) à 7,5 g/cm² par année en moyenne des 66 dernières années n'est très probablementpas due au hasard. Un calcul de corrélations (autocorrélation) fait avec un décalage de 1 à 12 ans montre que la série d'observations ne présente pas de périodes significatives de cet ordre de grandeur. On discute enfin les mesures stratigraphiques effectuées à plus grandes profondeurs au moyen du puits creusé au pôle sud (années antérieures à 1760), mesures pour lesquelles les couches annuelles sont moins bien prononcées.

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With 8 Figures

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Geophysical and Polar Research Center Contribution No. 154.     

Paleoclimatic variability at frequencies ranging from 1 cycle per 10 000 years to 1 cycle per 1000 years: Evidence for nonlinear behaviour of the climate system

The paleoclimatic variability at frequencies ranging from 10^–4 cycle per year (cpy) to 10^–3 cpy is investigated using a set of three deep-sea cores from the Indian Ocean. Three frequency bands of high paleoclimatic variability are first defined using upper and lower limits of the significant spectral power concentrations: the bands are centered around the spectral maxima located at 10.3, 4.7, and 2.5 kyr. The localisation of spectral lines is then refined by high-resolution spectral analysis.Some of the resulting lines have frequencies which are close to those previously detected in other paleoclimatic records, including the precessional peak at 19 kyr. Additional lines are also in good correspondence with the response of a nonlinear climatic oscillator forced by insolation variations, including peaks at 13 kyr, 10.4 kyr and 9.4 kyr. This correspondence suggests orbital forcing. Moreover for the Indian Ocean which is influenced by the monsoon circulation, it is plausible that the precessional contribution of the forcing interact strongly with the precipitation-temperature feedback used in the model, thus emphasizing the nonlinearity of the response.     

树轮记录的过去359a阿勒泰地区初夏气温变化

利用采集自阿尔泰山南坡森林上限3个采样点的西伯利亚落叶松(Larix sibirica Ledeb.)树芯样本,研制其树轮宽度年表。与区域内6个气象站点观测数据的相关分析结果表明,标准化宽度年表与6月平均气温相关较好,最高相关系数达0.675（p<0.0001）。使用逐步回归分析方法,建立温度的重建方程,调整自由度后的方差解释量为45.6%（1962~2012年）。过去359年来,阿勒泰地区平均气温变化存在7个偏暖（1667~1681年、1714~1728年、1747~1779年、1787~1800年、1862~1887年、1935~1968年、2000~2012年）和6个偏冷阶段（1682~1713年、1729~1746年、1780~1786年、1801~1861年、1888~1934年、1969~1999年）。并存在5个温暖年、54个偏暖年、252个正常年、37个偏冷年、以及11个寒冷年。6月平均温度的最高值出现在1830年（22.35℃）,最低温度出现在1985年（17.87℃）。功率谱分析显示该重建序列存在30.0年、7.4年的显著准周期（p<0.05）和6.4年的较显著准周期（p<0.10）。     

An analysis of the time scales of variability in centuries-long enso-sensitive records in the last 1000 years

We document the characteristic time scales of variability for seven climate indices whose time-dependent behavior is sensitive to some aspect of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO sensitivity arises from the location of these long-term records on the periphery of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Three of the indices are derived principally from historical sources, three others consist of tree-ring reconstructions (one of summer temperature, and the other two of winter rainfall), and one is an annual record of oxygen isotopic composition for a high-elevation glacier in Peru. Five of the seven indices sample at least portions of the Medieval Warm Period (~ A.D. 950 to 1250).Time series spectral analysis was used to identify the major time scales of variability among the different indices. We focus on two principal time scales: a high frequency band (~ 2–10 yr), which comprises most of the variability found in the modern record of ENSO activity, and a low frequency band to highlight variations on decadal to century time scales (11 <P < 150 yr). This last spectral band contains variability on time scales that are of general interest with respect to possible changes in large-scale air-sea exchanges. A technique called evolutive spectral analysis (ESA) is used to ascertain how stable each spectral peak is in time. Coherence and phase spectra are also calculated among the different indices over each full common period, and following a 91-yr window through time to examine whether the relationships change.In general, spectral power on time scales of ~ 2–6 yr is statistically significant and persists throughout most of the time intervals sampled by the different indices. Assuming that the ENSO phenomenon is the source of much of the variability at these time scales, this indicates that ENSO has been an important part of interannual climatic variations over broad areas of the circum-Pacific region throughout the last millennium. Significant coherence values were found for El Niño and reconstructed Sierra Nevada winter precipitation at ~ 2–4 yr throughout much of their common record (late 1500s to present) and between 6 and 7 yr from the mid-18th to the early 20th century.At decadal time scales each record generally tends to exhibit significant spectral power over different periods at different times. Both the Quelccaya Ice Cap ¹⁸O series and the Quinn El Niño event record exhibit significant spectral power over frequencies ~ 35 to 45 yr; however, there is low coherence between these two series at those frequencies over their common record. The Sierra Nevada winter rainfall reconstruction exhibits consistently strong variability at periods of ~ 30–60 yr.     

历史时期“大型环流-天气气候-作物年景”系统低频振动的模拟试验

本文分别采用史料中农业灾情影响收成的记载和近百年气候-年景模式,经处理取得了长江下游地区近千年水稻5级年景长序列。功率谱分析表明,这一气候年景序列具有38—40年极显著周期和105—110年、180—200年显著周期的低频振动,表现为年景偏好期与偏差期的交替变化。然后,运用“环流-天气气候-年景”系统模式,模拟了长江下游近千年气候振动和与其有关的环流演变。     

华山近５６年气温变化特征分析

利用华山1953-2008年逐日平均气温、最高气温和最低气温资料,运用M-K突变检验、Morlet小波分析等方法对华山气温变化特征进行了分析,结果表明:年平均气温、年平均最高气温和年平均最低气温均具有明显的冷期和暖期交替的特点,持续时间冷期比暖期长;四季气温均呈上升趋势,但增幅不同,冬季最大,夏季最小;年极端最低气温呈强烈的上升趋势;年平均气温、年平均最高气温和年平均最低气温突变分别出现在1995年、1997年和1993年,并且均存在准4 a、9 a的小尺度周期振荡和30 a左右大尺度周期振荡.     

On the vertical structure of Mediterranean explosive cyclones

An attempt is made to explore the vertical structure of the surface explosive cyclones in the Mediterranean on a climatological basis during the cold period of the year in order to get a better insight in the interaction between the upper and lower levels responsible for the genesis and evolvement of the phenomenon. The vertical profile of the explosive cyclones was examined with the aid of the vertical tracing software of the University of Melbourne Cyclone Tracking Algorithm, using the 1?×?1° spatial resolution of ERA-40 reanalysis data. It was found that about 57?% of the track steps of surface explosive cyclones extend up to 500?hPa. The north-westward tilting of the surface cyclones with height during the stage of explosive cyclogenesis, with a mean distance of 350?km between mean sea and 500?hPa levels, confirms the importance of baroclinicity. About 45?% of the surface explosive cyclones reached their maximum depth before their 500?hPa counterparts, implying the role of surface processes.     

南京之微塵

南京之微塵係薛君在民國二十七年由炯之鼓勵督導而成者。文中關於微塵數在一年中之分布及其與各種氣象要素之關係,論之綦詳,寶為國人論微塵之創作。不意薛君在二十九年四月二十日挈妻若子乘民用輪由渝返碚)中途失吉,阖門遇難!發其行篋,重覩斯稿,手澤尚新,嗚呼惜战!今為福其遺著,披讀之餘,不知涕泗之何從矣!     

中国南海夏季风强、弱年多尺度相互作用能量学特征

中国南海夏季风为东亚季风的主要系统之一,其具有多重尺度特征,除季节平均环流场外,低频（季节内振荡）和高频（天气尺度）扰动也十分活跃,各尺度系统存在明显的年际变化。该研究使用ERA-Interim和NCEP/NCAR两套再分析资料,从季风平均动能（MKE）诊断的角度出发,探讨了1979-2010年中国南海夏季风环流年际变化的能量来源及其和扰动场的相互作用过程。结果表明:中国南海夏季风对流活跃年份,中国南海南部（12°N以南）及中南半岛一带为季风平均动能显著增强区,此与南亚季风区西风急流的增强并向东延伸有关;中国南海北部（12°N以北）及西太平洋为气旋性环流盘踞,季风槽加深。中国南海南部季风平均动能增强的能量源自于扰动动量通量与平均环流的相互作用,强季风年,平均环流失去较少的动能给扰动场（亦即平均环流保留较多的动能）。通过进一步探讨高频（<10 d）及低频（10-90 d）扰动场与平均环流不同分量的（散度、涡度、风垂直切变）相互作用过程,发现季风平均动能的增长主要来自于<10 d扰动与季风平均散度和涡度的相互作用。中国南海北部季风槽区季风平均动能的维持来自于大气热源和平均上升运动的相互作用,但同时有较多的季风平均动能向扰动动能转换,有利于扰动的成长。因此,强季风年,中国南海北部热带气旋生成数目增多,夏季北传的季节内振荡也增强,导致中国南部沿海及华南地区出现较多的灾害天气。      

北大西洋爆发性气旋的统计特征

利用National Centers for Environmental Prediction（NCEP）提供的Final Analysis（FNL）再分析资料,对2000-2015年冷季（10月至次年4月）北大西洋上的爆发性气旋进行了分析,综合考虑气旋中心位置经向分布特征和海面10 m高风场对爆发性气旋的定义进行了修订。根据气旋中心海表面气压最大加深率的空间分布,发现北大西洋爆发性气旋主要发生在4个区域,即:北美大陆区、西北大西洋区、北大西洋中央区和东北大西洋区。整个北大西洋区爆发性气旋个数随海表面中心气压最大加深率增大而减少,自西向东气旋强度增强,气旋移动路径呈西南-东北向。按气旋强度等级可分为4类:超强（≥ 2.15 Bergeron（Ber））、强（1.75-2.14 Ber）、中（1.45-1.74 Ber）、弱（1.00-1.44 Ber）爆发性气旋。在北大西洋海盆区,自西南向东北爆发性气旋的个数逐渐减少,爆发时长变短。西北大西洋区气旋中心气压加深率最大,爆发时长最长。东北大西洋区加深率最小,爆发时长最短。东北大西洋区爆发性气旋主要发生在12月,北大西洋中央区主要发生在12月-次年3月,西北大西洋区主要发生在1-2月。与海上相比,北美大陆区爆发性气旋发生个数少,强度弱,爆发时长短。      

Analysis of mean temperature variations at the 1000/500 hPa layer over Europe, 1945–88

Summary Mean temperature (T) values at the 1000/500 hPa atmospheric layer over Europe have been calculated on the basis of grid point data, for the period between 1945–88. An analysis of trend inT values over the whole period found that most of the area is characterized by positive trends. During the summer of the last sub-period, 1970–88, there was a positive trend predominant over most of the region, with a maximum rate of 0.5°C/10 years. It is therefore evident that the warmth of the 1980s is not just a surface phenomenon over the region. Regarding significant periodicities, the well known Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) was identified only for some grid points of the NW and NE regions, while the Southern Hemisphere Oscillation (SO) was only identified for the Mediterranean area.With 8 Figures     

Concentration of trace gases in the lower troposphere,simultaneously recorded at neighboring mountain stations Part II: Ozone

Summary Long-term ozone recordings at different altitude levels, conducted in remote areas, can make a valuable contribution to an understanding of the background level of ozone, its periodical variations and possible long-term trends.The measuring stations (three high mountain stations between 740 and nearly 3000 m a.s.l. with small horizontal distance) are described together with recording and calibration procedures. Information is provided on the time history of all recordings since 1978, considering not only the annual means but also the monthly and 10-day means as a function of height. An analysis is presented of the annual variations which differ considerably in the respective height levels and—in three-dimensional diagrams—the correlation between daily and annual variation is shown as a function of height. Then follows a careful parameterization: analysis of the frequency distribution of the ozone concentration, correlation with relative humidity, relative sunshine duration, and temperature. It can be seen that the correlations are very different and partly inverse, depending on the altitude level.Many ozone profiles obtained between valley level and nearly 3000 m a.s.l. (cable car O₃ radiosonde) give a picture of the typical ozone profile for different meteorological situations and for the case of stratospheric intrusions of ozone into the troposphere. The stratospheric contribution of ozone to the tropospheric ozone budget is discussed.Since obviously a very high photochemical production rate can be established for ozone in the lowest layer above ground (correlation of O₃ with the daily variation of the sunshine duration) it was examined if this O₃ variation might be caused only by horizontal transport of ozone from remote areas with high anthropogenic activity by the daily quasiperiodical currents near the ground. But this is not the case.The correlation between ozone concentration, other trace gases such as nitrogen-oxygen compounds and hydrocarbons is shown.With 29 Figures     

近58a南岳高山站气候变化特征分析

采用1953—2010年南岳高山站逐日气象资料,运用线性回归、突变分析和小波分析方法,对该站平均风速、气温和降水的气候变化特征进行了分析,并对与平均风速变化密切相关的气温和降水进行了年际变化特征比较.结果表明:1)年和四季平均风速均呈明显减小趋势,在20世纪90年代前后风速有由大到小的突变,年平均风速存在显著的准2 a和准4 a周期;2)年平均气温、最低气温、最高气温均呈明显升高趋势,气温存在显著的准2 a和准4 a周期,且于20世纪90年代中期前后气温有由偏低向偏高的突变;3)年降水量呈下降趋势,存在显著的准2 a和准3 a周期;4)风速与平均气温、最高气温和最低气温呈负相关关系,均通过0.01显著性检验,风速与降水的相关性没有通过显著性检验,但风速与降水的变化趋势在20世纪60年代中后期、70年代中期到21世纪初有较好的反相位变化.     

Climate anomalies and epidemics in South America at the end of the Colonial Period

Climate is one of the most of influential natural factors on society and economy. One of the consequences of climate anomalies is the emergence of diseases and epidemics, especially in agrarian societies. The current concern with long-term climate change and its measurable consequences on health and disease gives new relevance to the question of how agrarian societies fared during sharp droughts and other climatic hardships, especially those subject to the disruptive processes of colonization. Not many studies have been done in Latin America that relate climate, epidemics and mortality from a historical perspective. This paper explores the association between climatic anomalies, epidemic events, and native demographic decline in the Alto Peru region in the highlands of Bolivia, in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century. Studies of historic climatology indicate that adverse climate events became more frequent in the southern areas of South America during these centuries. There were extreme oscillations in precipitation, especially beginning in the 1750’s which significantly impacted the largest group of people in late colonial Alto Peru: the indigenous population, whose vulnerability increased in face of local climatic anomalies and the resulting epidemiological risk. Both the quantitative and the qualitative analysis show associations between climatic and epidemic events.     

Highlights of fifty years of atmospheric aerosol research at Mace Head

This paper summarises the development and principal results of fifty years of research on aerosols in the marine atmosphere at Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station on the west coast of Ireland. It concentrates on the sources, physico-chemical properties, number and mass concentrations, size range, volatility and chemical composition of aerosols in different air masses. It also examines optical properties of the aerosols and their long-range transport.     

Highlights of fifty years of atmospheric aerosol research at Mace Head

This paper summarises the development and principal results of fifty years of research on aerosols in the marine atmosphere at Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station on the west coast of Ireland. It concentrates on the sources, physico-chemical properties, number and mass concentrations, size range, volatility and chemical composition of aerosols in different air masses. It also examines optical properties of the aerosols and their long-range transport.