An Evaluation of Tsunami Forecasts from the T2 Scenario Database

A tsunami scenario database (T2) has recently been developed for use within the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC). This scenario database has proven to be a very useful tool for forecast guidance, issuing of tsunami warnings and general event analysis. In this paper, the T2 scenarios are described, and evaluated by comparing them with observations of sea level from tsunameters for a number of recent tsunami events. In general, the T2 scenario database performs very well in terms of predicting the arrival time of the tsunami and the wave amplitudes at tsunameter locations.     

A Revised Evaluation of Tsunami Hazards along the Chinese Coast in View of the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake

Japan’s 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and the accompanying tsunami have reminded us of the potential tsunami hazards from the Manila and Ryukyu trenches to the South China and East China Seas. Statistics of historical seismic records from nearly the last 4 decades have shown that major earthquakes do not necessarily agree with the local Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The probability of a mega-earthquake may be higher than we have previously estimated. Furthermore, we noted that the percentages of tsunami-associated earthquakes are much higher in major events, and the earthquakes with magnitudes equal to or greater than 8.8 have all triggered tsunamis in the past approximately 100 years. We will emphasize the importance of a thorough study of possible tsunami scenarios for hazard mitigation. We focus on several hypothetical earthquake-induced tsunamis caused by M _w 8.8 events along the Manila and Ryukyu trenches. We carried out numerical simulations based on shallow-water equations (SWE) to predict the tsunami dynamics in the South China and East China Seas. By analyzing the computed results we found that the height of the potential surge in China’s coastal area caused by earthquake-induced tsunamis may reach a couple of meters high. Our preliminary results show that tsunamis generated in the Manila and Ryukyu trenches could pose a significant threat to Chinese coastal cities such as Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macao. However, we did not find the highest tsunami wave at Taiwan, partially because it lies right on the extension of an assumed fault line. Furthermore, we put forward a multi-scale model with higher resolution, which enabled us to investigate the edge waves diffracted around Taiwan Island with a closer view.     

Estimating tsunami inundation from hurricane storm surge predictions along the U.S. gulf coast

Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coasts have been included in the U.S. Tsunami Warning System since 2005. While the tsunami risk for the GOM is low, tsunamis generated by local submarine landslides pose the greatest potential threat, as evidenced by several large ancient submarine mass failures identified in the northern GOM basin. Given the lack of significant historical tsunami evidence in the GOM, the potential threat of landslide tsunamis in this region is assessed from a worst-case scenario perspective based on a set of events including the large ancient failures and most likely extreme events determined by a probabilistic approach. Since tsunamis are not well-understood along the Gulf Coast, we investigate tsunami inundation referenced to category-specific hurricane storm surge levels, which are relatively well established along the Gulf Coast, in order to provide information for assessing the potential threat of tsunamis which is more understandable and accessible to emergency managers. Based on tsunami inundation studies prepared for the communities of South Padre Island, TX, Galveston, TX, Mobile, AL, Panama City, FL, and Tampa, FL, we identify regional trends of tsunami inundation in terms of modeled storm surge inundation. The general trends indicate that tsunami inundation can well exceed the level of storm surge from major hurricanes in open beachfront and barrier island regions, while more interior areas are less threatened. Such information can be used to better prepare for tsunami events as well as provide a preliminary estimate of tsunami hazard in locations where detailed tsunami inundation studies have not been completed.     

香港海啸监测及警报系统的发展

地震监测、海啸数值模拟和海平面监测是监测和预报海啸的主要工具。为了有效监测南海北部可能发生的地震海啸,香港天文台（HKO）正在香港筹建一个宽频地震站,同时通过太平洋海啸警报及减灾系统（PTWS）的框架取得美国加州综合地震网（CISN）显示系统的实时地震信息,并通过世界气象组织（WM0）的全球通信系统（GTS）接收南海和西北太平洋的验潮站和海啸浮标数据以监测海面的波动情况。香港天文台通过联合国教科文组织（UNESCO）政府间海洋学委员会（IOC）取得海啸漫滩模式交换计划（TIME）下的海啸数值模式,把香港本地的高分辨率水深和地形数据融合在模式之内,并利用这个模式计算南海多处地区在不同地震情景下的海啸传播,为海啸预报提供重要的参考数据。     

Comparison of two great Chile tsunamis in 1960 and 2010 using numerical simulation

Great differences in hazard and losses were shown from two tsunamis, both generated in Chile, one in 1960 and the other in 2010. Numerical simulation was applied to the tsunami analysis. The fault dislocation of the seafloor was assumed to equal to the initial tsunami wave field, which can be calculated by the formula of fault dislocation in the elastic isotropic half-space. The linear long wave theory was used as the tsunami hydrodynamic model, and the finite difference method and leap-frog scheme were selected for solving the equations. The accuracy of the simulated results was verified by the observed data in five tide gauges. By means of two scenario tsunamis, the analytical results show that the earthquake magnitude, bathymetry in rupture zone and rapid release of warning information in 2010 tsunami are the main explanations of the aforementioned great difference.     

Effects of bathymetry on tsunami propagation: Application of ray tracing to tsunamis

Ray tracing of seismic surface waves is applied to tsunami propagation to examine bathymetric effect along its propagation path. Computations are made for trans-Pacific tsunamis and for near-field tsunamis in the Japan Sea. For tsunamis across the Pacific Ocean, the comparison to a uniform ocean shows that focusing and defocusing, due to bathymetry, are significant for some combinations of source and receiver. For example, the refraction of rays is predominant at the East Pacific Rise for the tsunami from Chile. The tsunamis in the Japan Sea are strongly affected by the shallow Yamato Rise. The predicted arrival time and amplitude distribution generally agree with the observations from an actual tsunami. Since the computation can be made very quickly, the method is useful for preliminary analysis of tsunami propagation, such as in an operational warning system or in the determination of computational area for finite-difference computation.     

FDM Simulation of Seismic Waves, Ocean Acoustic Waves, and Tsunamis Based on Tsunami-Coupled Equations of Motion

We have developed a new, unified modeling technique for the total simulation of seismic waves, ocean acoustic waves, and tsunamis resulting from earthquakes, based on a finite difference method simulation of the 3D equations of motion. Using the equilibrium between the pressure gradient and gravity in these equations, tsunami propagation is naturally incorporated in the simulation based on the equations of motion. The performance of the parallel computation for the newly developed tsunami-coupled equations using a domain partitioning procedure shows a high efficiency coefficient with a large number of CPU cores. The simulation results show how the near-field term associated with seismic waves produced by shallow earthquakes leads to a permanent coseismic deformation of the ground surface, which gives rise to the initial tsunami on the sea surface. Propagation of the tsunami along the sea surface as a gravity wave, and ocean acoustic waves in seawater with high-frequency multiple P-wave reflections between the free surface and sea bottom, are also clearly demonstrated by the present simulations. We find a good agreement in the tsunami waveform between our results and those obtained by other simulations based on an analytical model and the Navier–Stokes equations, demonstrating the effectiveness of the tsunami-coupling simulation model. Based on this simulation, we show that the ratio of the amplitude of ocean acoustic waves to the height of the tsunami, both of which are produced by the earthquake, strongly depends on the rise time of the earthquake rupture. This ratio can be used to obtain a more detailed understanding of the source rupture processes of subduction zone earthquakes, and for implementing an improved tsunami alert system for slow tsunami earthquakes.     

Could a 1755-Like Tsunami Reach the French Atlantic Coastline? Constraints from Twentieth Century Observations and Numerical Modeling

The tsunami generated by the 1 November, 1755 earthquake off the coast of Portugal affected mainly the coastlines of the Iberian Peninsula and Northwest Morocco, but was also observed in some places along the North Atlantic coasts. To determine whether the event could have effected the French coastline, we conducted a study to search for signs of the tsunami in historical records from all tide gauge stations off the French Atlantic coast during the twentieth century, specifically for the 28 February, 1969 and the 26 May, 1975 tsunamis that were recorded by the Portuguese tide gauge network. Because many recordings are available in La Rochelle (located on the southwest coast of France), we focused our study on this harbor. The analysis of the tide gauge data shows no evidence for tsunamis in La Rochelle, neither in 1969 nor in 1975. To confirm this lack of tsunami signals, we used nonlinear, shallow water equations to compute the tsunami propagation to the French Atlantic coastline for both 1969 and 1975 events. Results obtained from these simulations confirm otherwise unnoticeable wave amplitudes at La Rochelle harbor. In a second step, tsunamis from three different scenarios for the 1755 earthquake were modeled to estimate the impact of such a tsunami on the French Atlantic coast, with a focus on La Rochelle harbor. A comparison of the functions of tide configuration was made in order to analyse the difference in impact. The results show that, while the harbor is poorly impacted, several areas (western part of the island of Ré and northern coast of the island of Oléron) may have experienced a moderate impact from 0.5 to 1 m, especially since the tide was high at the time of arrival, possibly causing local inundations in lowland areas.     

Forecasting tsunamis in Poverty Bay, New Zealand, with deep-ocean gauges

The response/transfer function of a coastal site to a remote open-ocean point is introduced, with the intent to directly convert open-ocean measurements into the wave time history at the site. We show that the tsunami wave at the site can be predicted as the wave is measured in the open ocean as far as 1,000+ km away from the site, with a straightforward computation which can be performed almost instantaneously. The suggested formalism is demonstrated for the purpose of tsunami forecasting in Poverty Bay, in the Gisborne region of New Zealand. Directional sensitivity of the site response due to different conditions for the excitation of the shelf and the bay’s normal modes is investigated and used to explain tsunami observations. The suggested response function formalism is validated with available records of the 2010 Chilean tsunami at Gisborne tide gauge and at the nearby deep-ocean assessment and reporting of tsunamis (DART) station 54401. The suggested technique is also demonstrated by hindcasting the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami at Monterey Bay, CA, using an offshore record of each tsunami at DART station 46411.     

A macroseismic model of a tsunami source and estimation of its efficiency by numerical modeling

A typical model of the source of a tsunami (“macroseismic source”) is suggested for use in approximate estimation of maximum tsunami height using straightforward numerical modeling. In this paper the model is tested using three actual events: the 1952 North Kuril Is., 1971 Moneron, and 1994 Shikotan earthquakes, which excited considerable tsunamis at Russia’s Far East coasts. Comparison of the maximum tsunami runup values as obtained in numerical experiments with observations of actual tsunamis showed that the numerical model proposed here is suitable for crude estimation of tsunami runup and tsunami waiting times for coastal population centers in the near zone of a tsunami source.     

Stromboli Island (Italy): Scenarios of Tsunamis Generated by Submarine Landslides

Stromboli is an Italian volcanic island known for its persistent state of activity, which leads to frequent mass failures and consequently to frequent tsunamis ranging from large (and rare) catastrophic events involving the entire southern Tyrrhenian Sea to smaller events with, however, extremely strong local impact. Most of tsunamigenic landslides occur in the Sciara del Fuoco (SdF) zone, which is a deep scar in the NW flank of the volcano, that was produced by a Holocene massive flank collapse and that is the accumulation area of all the eruptive ejecta from the craters. Shallow-water bathymetric surveys around the island help one to identify submarine canyons and detachment scars giving evidence of mass instabilities and failures that may have produced and might produce tsunamis. The main purpose of this paper is to call attention to tsunami sources in Stromboli that are located outside the SdF area. Further, we do not touch on tsunami scenarios associated with gigantic sector collapses that have repeat times in the order of several thousands of years, but rather concentrate on intermediate size tsunamis, such as the ones that occurred in December 2002. Though we cannot omit tsunamis from the zone of the SdF, the main emphasis is on the elaboration of preliminary scenarios for three more possible source areas around Stromboli, namely Punta Lena Sud, Forgia Vecchia and Strombolicchio, with the aim of purposeful contributing to the evaluation of the hazard associated with such events and to increase the knowledge of potential threats affecting Stromboli and the nearby islands of the Aeolian archipelago. The simulations show that tsunami sources outside of the SdF can produce disastrous effects. As a consequence, we recommend that the monitoring system that is presently operating in Stromboli and that is focussed on the SdF source area be extended in order to cover even the other sources. Moreover, a synoptic analysis of the results from all the considered tsunami scenarios leads to a very interesting relation between the tsunami total energy and the landslide potential energy, that could be used as a very effective tool to evaluate the expected tsunami size from estimates of the landslide size.     

Forecasting tsunamis in Poverty Bay,New Zealand,with deep-ocean gauges

The response/transfer function of a coastal site to a remote open-ocean point is introduced, with the intent to directly convert open-ocean measurements into the wave time history at the site. We show that the tsunami wave at the site can be predicted as the wave is measured in the open ocean as far as 1,000+ km away from the site, with a straightforward computation which can be performed almost instantaneously. The suggested formalism is demonstrated for the purpose of tsunami forecasting in Poverty Bay, in the Gisborne region of New Zealand. Directional sensitivity of the site response due to different conditions for the excitation of the shelf and the bay’s normal modes is investigated and used to explain tsunami observations. The suggested response function formalism is validated with available records of the 2010 Chilean tsunami at Gisborne tide gauge and at the nearby deep-ocean assessment and reporting of tsunamis (DART) station 54401. The suggested technique is also demonstrated by hindcasting the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami at Monterey Bay, CA, using an offshore record of each tsunami at DART station 46411.

     

Seismic behavior of breakwaters on complex ground by numerical tests: Liquefaction and post liquefaction ground settlements

A large number of breakwaters have been constructed along coasts to protect humans and infrastructures from tsunamis.There is a risk that foundation soils of these structures may liquefy,or partially liquefy during the earthquake preceding a tsunami,which would greatly reduce the structures’capacity to resist the tsunami.It is necessary to consider not only the soil’s liquefaction behavior due to earthquake motions but also its post-liquefaction behavior because this behavior will affect the breakwater’s capacity to resist an incoming tsunami.In this study,numerical tests based on a sophisticated constitutive model and a soil-water coupled finite element method are used to predict the mechanical behavior of breakwaters and the surrounding soils.Two real breakwaters subjected to two different seismic excitations are examined through numerical simulation.The simulation results show that,earthquakes affect not only the immediate behavior of breakwaters and the surrounding soils but also their long-term settlements due to post-earthquake consolidation.A soil profile with thick clayey layers beneath liquefied soil is more vulnerable to tsunami than a soil profile with only sandy layers.Therefore,quantitatively evaluating the seismic behavior of breakwaters and surrounding soils is important for the design of breakwater structures to resist tsunamis.     

Long-Term Tsunami Data Archive Supports Tsunami Forecast, Warning, Research, and Mitigation

In response to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the United States began a careful review and strengthening of its programs aimed at reducing the consequences of tsunamis. Several reports and calls to action were drafted, including the Tsunami Warning and Education Act (Public Law 109–424) signed into law by the President in December 2006. NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Center for Geophysics and Marine Geology (WDC-GMG) maintain a national and international tsunami data archive that fulfills part of the P.L. 109-424. The NGDC/WDC-GMG long-term tsunami data archive has expanded from the original global historical event databases and damage photo collection, to include tsunami deposits, coastal water-level data, DART? buoy data, and high-resolution coastal DEMs. These data are used to validate models, provide guidance to warning centers, develop tsunami hazard assessments, and educate the public about the risks from tsunamis. In this paper we discuss current steps and future actions to be taken by NGDC/WDC-GMG to support tsunami hazard mitigation research, to ultimately help save lives and improve the resiliency of coastal communities.     

Computation of Tsunamis in the East (Japan) Sea Using Dynamically Interfaced Nested Model

-- A study of 1983 and 1993 tsunami events in the East (Japan) Sea using multigrid dynamically-interfaced finite difference models was performed to produce detailed features of coastal inundations along the eastern coast of Korea. The computational domain is composed of several subregions with different grid sizes connected in parallel or inclined directions. The innermost subregion represents the coastal alignment reasonably well and has a grid size of about 30 meters. Numerical simulations have been performed in the framework of shallow-water equations (linear, as well as nonlinear) over the plane or spherical coordinate system, depending on the dimensions of the subregion. Results of simulations show the general agreements with the observed data of the runup height for both tsunamis. The evolution of the distribution function of tsunami heights is studied numerically and it shows a tendency to the log-normal curve for a long distance from the source.     

Unusual sedimentary deposits on the SE side of Stromboli volcano, Italy: products of a tsunami caused by the ca. 5000 years BP Sciara del Fuoco collapse?

The role of sector collapse in the generation of catastrophic volcanigenic tsunami has become well understood only recently, in part because of the problems in the preservation and recognition of tsunami deposits. Tinti et al. [Tinti, S., Bortolucci, E., Romagnoli, C., 2000. Computer simulations of tsunamis due to sector collapse at Stromboli, Italy. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 96, 103–128] modeled a tsunami produced by the c. 5,000 years BP collapse of the Sciara del Fuoco on the island volcano Stromboli. Although deposits associated with this event are generally lacking on the island, volcaniclastic breccias on the SE side of the island extending to an elevation above 120 m a.s.l. may have been generated by this tsunami. Deposits above 100 m are dominated by coarse breccias comprising disorganized, poorly sorted, nonbedded, angular to subangular lava blocks in a matrix of finer pyroclastic debris. These breccias are interpreted as a water-induced mass flow, possibly a noncohesive debris flow, generated as colluvial material on steep slopes was remobilized by the return flow of the tsunami wave, the run-up of which reached an elevation exceeding 120 m a.s.l. Finer breccias of subrounded to rounded lava blocks cropping out at 15 m a.s.l. are similar to modern high-energy beach deposits and are interpreted as beach material redeposited by the advancing tsunami wave. The location of these deposits matches the predicted location of the maximum tsunami wave amplitude as calculated by modeling studies of Tinti et al. [Tinti, S., Bortolucci, E., Romagnoli, C., 2000. Computer simulations of tsunamis due to sector collapse at Stromboli, Italy. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 96, 103–128]. Whereas the identification and modeling of paleo-tsunami events is typically based on the observation of the sedimentary deposits of the tsunami run-up, return flow may be equally or more important in controlling patterns of sedimentation.     

On the causes of the great damage from the tsunami of March 11, 2011 on the northeast coast of Honshu Island

The catastrophic effects of the March 11, 2011 tsunami on the most affected parts of the northeastern Honshu coast are considered. An analysis of topographic maps and evidences of paleotsunamis and the tsunamis occurring in historical time and instrumental period clearly show the high probability of tsunami occurrence and the high vulnerability of the territory to them. We concluded that the principal factors of the tsunami’s catastrophic effects were land use and buildings without taking into account the factors indicated. The main features determining coast vulnerability to tsunamis are considered.     

The landslides and tsunamis of the 30th of December 2002 in Stromboli analysed through numerical simulations

On the 30th of December 2002 two tsunamis were generated only 7 min apart in Stromboli, southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy. They represented the peak of a volcanic crisis that started 2 days before with a large emission of lava flows from a lateral vent that opened some hundreds of meters below the summit craters. Both tsunamis were produced by landslides that detached from the Sciara del Fuoco. This is a morphological scar and is the result of the last collapse of the northwestern flank of the volcanic edifice, that occurred less than 5 ka b.p. The first tsunami was due to a submarine mass movement that started very close to the coastline and that involved about 20×10⁶ m³ of material. The second tsunami was engendered by a subaerial landslide that detached at about 500 m above sea level and that involved a volume estimated at 4–9×10⁶ m³. The latter landslide can be seen as the retrogressive continuation of the first failure. The tsunamis were not perceived as distinct events by most people. They attacked all the coasts of Stromboli within a few minutes and arrived at the neighbouring island of Panarea, 20 km SSW of Stromboli, in less than 5 min. The tsunamis caused severe damage at Stromboli.In this work, the two tsunamis are studied by means of numerical simulations that use two distinct models, one for the landslides and one for the water waves. The motion of the sliding bodies is computed by means of a Lagrangian approach that partitions the mass into a set of blocks: we use both one-dimensional and two-dimensional schemes. The landslide model calculates the instantaneous rate of the vertical displacement of the sea surface caused by the motion of the underwater slide. This is included in the governing equations of the tsunami, which are solved by means of a finite-element (FE) technique. The tsunami is computed on two different grids formed by triangular elements, one covering the near-field around Stromboli and the other also including the island of Panarea.The simulations show that the main tsunamigenic potential of the slides is restricted to the first tens of seconds of their motion when they interact with the shallow-water coastal area, and that it diminishes drastically in deep water. The simulations explain how the tsunamis that are generated in the Sciara del Fuoco area, are able to attack the entire coastline of Stromboli with larger effects on the northern coast than on the southern. Strong refraction and bending of the tsunami fronts is due to the large near-shore bathymetric gradient, which is also responsible for the trapping of the waves and for the persistence of the oscillations. Further, the first tsunami produces large waves and runup heights comparable with the observations. The simulated second tsunami is only slightly smaller, though it was induced by a mass that is approximately one third of the first. The arrival of the first tsunami is negative, in accordance with most eyewitness reports. Conversely, the leading wave of the second tsunami is positive.     

A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Study of the Auckland Region, Part II: Inundation Modelling and Hazard Assessment

Regional source tsunamis pose a potentially devastating hazard to communities and infrastructure on the New Zealand coast. But major events are very uncommon. This dichotomy of infrequent but potentially devastating hazards makes realistic assessment of the risk challenging. Here, we describe a method to determine a probabilistic assessment of the tsunami hazard by regional source tsunamis with an “Average Recurrence Interval” of 2,500-years. The method is applied to the east Auckland region of New Zealand. From an assessment of potential regional tsunamigenic events over 100,000 years, the inundation of the Auckland region from the worst 100 events is modelled using a hydrodynamic model and probabilistic inundation depths on a 2,500-year time scale were determined. Tidal effects on the potential inundation were included by coupling the predicted wave heights with the probability density function of tidal heights at the inundation site. Results show that the more exposed northern section of the east coast and outer islands in the Hauraki Gulf face the greatest hazard from regional tsunamis in the Auckland region. Incorporating tidal effects into predictions of inundation reduced the predicted hazard compared to modelling all the tsunamis arriving at high tide giving a more accurate hazard assessment on the specified time scale. This study presents the first probabilistic analysis of dynamic modelling of tsunami inundation for the New Zealand coast and as such provides the most comprehensive assessment of tsunami inundation of the Auckland region from regional source tsunamis available to date.     

Relationship of Tsunami Intensity to Source Earthquake Magnitude as Retrieved from Historical Data

Operational prediction of near-field tsunamis in all existing Tsunami Warning Systems (TWSs) is based on fast determination of the position and size of submarine earthquakes. Exceedance of earthquake magnitude above some established threshold value, which can vary over different tsunamigenic zones, results in issuing a warning signal. Usually, a warning message has several (from 2 to 5) grades reflecting the degree of tsunami danger and sometimes contains expected wave heights at the coast. Current operational methodology is based on two main assumptions: (1) submarine earthquakes above some threshold magnitude can generate dangerous tsunamis and (2) the height of a resultant tsunami is, in general, proportional to the earthquake magnitude. While both assumptions are physically reasonable and generally correct, statistics of issued warnings are far from being satisfactory. For the last 55 years, up to 75% of warnings for regional tsunamis have turned out to be false, while each TWS has had at least a few cases of missing dangerous tsunamis. This paper presents the results of investigating the actual dependence of tsunami intensity on earthquake magnitude as it can be retrieved from historical observations and discusses the degree of correspondence of the above assumptions to real observations. Tsunami intensity, based on the Soloviev-Imamura scale is used as a measure of tsunami “size”. Its correlation with the M _s and M _w magnitudes is investigated based on historical data available for the instrumental period of observations (from 1900 to present).