The music of the spheres and the prosaicness of statistical criteria: A response to B.L. Berry’s paper “Heliogeophysical and other natural processes,periods of their oscillations,and forecasts”

According to B.L. Berry’s “harmonic model,” any natural or social process is a superposition of several cosmic rhythms. The author assumes that stability of these rhythms allows prediction of earth phenomena over an unlimited time. We show that the statistical criteria supposedly substantiating the harmonic model were applied incorrectly. The initial data for the analysis were biased and selected incompetently; the adequacy of the methods used was not verified. Predictions of natural catastrophes (earthquakes, weather anomalies, etc.) and various social events according to Berry’s model are unsatisfactory. Statistics do not confirm that these predictions are at least slightly better than random guessing. Berry’s model is unacceptable; it is untenable both in detail and in general.     

Comments on: “Underwater measurements of carbon dioxide evolution in marine plant communities: A new method” by J. Silva and R. Santos [Estuarine,Coastal and Shelf Science 78(2008) 827–830]

Silva et al. propose a new method for quantifying benthic net community production (NCP) of tidal flats under submerged condition, based on the monitoring of water pCO₂ in a transparent benthic chamber around high tide. I demonstrate here with theoretical considerations that this method is inappropriate for coastal environments, because it allows only the quantification of the change in the dissolved CO₂ which, at classical seawater pH, is only ∼10% of the change of the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Total Alkalinity and/or DIC must be measured at the beginning and end of incubations in order to compute NCP in coastal environments. However, I also demonstrate that when pH is below 7, more than 95% of the DIC change occurs in the CO₂ pool. The method proposed by Silva et al. is thus valuable for freshwater environments with acidic, low alkalinity waters, where monitoring the water pCO₂ in a vial or chamber provides alone a very close approximation of the planktonic or benthic net community production.     

Discussion/comments regarding “Trends in<Emphasis Type="Italic"> p</Emphasis>CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> and sea–air CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> flux over the global open oceans for the last two decades” by Y. Iida,A. Kojima,Y. Takatani,T. Nakano,H. Sugimoto,T. Midorikawa,M. Ishii

A paper by Iida et al. that was recently published in this journal (J Oceanogr 17:637–661, 2015) presented trends in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in surface seawater and the estimated sea–air carbon dioxide flux over the global open oceans for the last two decades. The purpose of the present discussion is to demonstrate that the formula used by Iida et al. in their assessments can also be employed to estimate the sea–air carbon dioxide flux based on long-term wind statistics, i.e., based on data showing how the mean wind speed 10 m above the sea surface has varied over a long period. Examples of the application of this approach are given here, based on long-term wind statistics for the northern North Sea and the North West Shelf of Australia.