热带大西洋表层环流及其月变化特征的分析

应用1993年4月至2001年3月的TOPEX/Poseidon卫星高度计遥感资料,分析了8 a平均热带大西洋(15°S～25°N,5°～50°W)表层环流结构的月变化特征.研究结果表明:热带大西洋表层环流中高纬度海区流速较小,赤道附近流速较大,表层环流系统大部分流系月变化不明显,部分流系月际波动较显著.具体来说,西南向的北赤道流下半年的纬向流速分量比上半年大.非洲沿岸流在5～11月流向为东北向,在其他月份主要为东南向.北赤道逆流可以分成两部分:25°W以东海区,北赤道逆流常年流向向东,到9月份前后流速达到最大值(约0.25 cm/s);25°W以西海区,7月至翌年1月流向向东,2～6月北赤道逆流减小,并有西向流产生.2°S～2°N,15°W以东海区的南赤道流在1～3月、9～10月流向向东,其他月份流向向西.南赤道流可认为是由南、北两支西向的海流构成,这两支海流的流轴分别位于6°S和1°N,在6～7月北支流速达到最大值0.6 m/s.南美洲纳塔耳东部西北向的北巴西海流流速月际变化不大,在5～6月份流速达到最大值0.3～0.4 m/s.相应的卫星风场遥感资料的分析表明热带大西洋表层环流结构的月变化特征与风场的分布及变化有较好的对应关系.用World Ocean Atlas 2001的月平均温盐数据反演出来的表层地转流场以及卫星跟踪ARGOS漂流浮标观测进行的对比验证表明,上述遥感分析的地转流场结果与水文数据以及海上观测结果一致.     

Four-dimensional analysis of the hydrophysical fields in the tropical Atlantic using a complete non-linear model of currents: Numerical simulation andin situ data treatment

This paper reports the results of a numerical modelling experiment on estimating the accuracy of four-dimensional analysis using the twins technique.In situ temperature and salinity data collected in the tropical Atlantic are treated using a special algorithm. Some features resulting from the disagreement between the hydrophysical fields at the time of assimilation are discussed.Translated by V. Puchkin.     

用TOPEX/POSEIDON高度计数据分析热带大西洋海面高度距平的低频变化

利用1992年10月~2002年7月的TOPEX/POSEIDON(T/P)卫星高度计月平均格点数据分析了热带大西洋(15°S~25°N,5°~50°W)海面高度距平的低频变化。由热带大西洋大约10 a海面高度距平变化的标准差分析得到:在赤道附近海区(2°~5°N,25°~45°W)、非洲沿岸海区(11°~16°N,16°~18°W)海面高度波动剧烈。对海面高度距平进行经验正交函数(EOF)分析,得到EOF的3个模态分别占有方差比例为51.5%,13.2%和7.9%。第一模态揭示的是热带辐合带(ITCZ)的季节性迁移导致海面高度距平沿着ITCZ平均位置经向倾斜的1 a周期变化,第一模态还显示了太阳辐射的季节差异引起南北两个海盆海面高度的整体升降。第二模态描述了中心分别位于(3°N,40°W)和(7°N,45°W)附近两个涡漩的变化。第三模态表征的是几内亚海湾上升流和赤道北部下降流在6~7月强度达到最大。对EOF时间系数曲线的经验模态分解(EMD),结果表明热带大西洋低频变化包含的成分主要有:0.5,1,2,4和6 a。其中1 a周期是热带大西洋海面高度变化最主要的周期成分,0.5 a周期和2 a周期也是热带大西洋海面高度变化的重要形式;而4 a和6 a周期所占的比例较小。另外EMD方法还分解出1997~1998年太平洋El Nino事件对热带大西洋海面高度的影响。     

Mixed layer in the Sea of Japan: numerical simulation and long-term data analysis

Seasonal variation and topography of the mixed layer in the Sea of Japan are studied by comparison of results from long-term observation data analysis and from numerical simulation with the MHI oceanic model (Shapiro. 1998. Marine Hydrophysical Journal, 6:26～40). The data are retrieved from Oceanographic Atlas of the Bering Sea, Okhotsk Sea, and Japan/East Sea (Rostov, Rostov, Dmitrieva, et al. 2003. Pacific Oceanography, 1 (1):70-72). The simulated and long-term patterns are compared. An impact of surface buoyancy flux, wind, and convergence/divergence of surface currents upon the mixed layer in the Sea of Japan is analyzed.     

Evaluation of monthly turbulent heat fluxes from WHOI analysis and NCEP reanalysis in the tropical Atlantic

1 IntroductionThe empirical and simple model studies suggestthe existence of a SST dipole mode in the tropical At-lantic which is antisymmetric about the annual-meanthe intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and in-volves air- sea interaction through the wind- SST-evaporation (WES) feedback (Carton, 1996; Chang etal., 1997; Zhao et al., 2003). Chang et al. (2000)found that the dominant near-surface atmospheric re-sponse in the tropical Atlantic sector primarily comesfrom the local SST f…     

Estimates of the mutual influence of variations in the sea surface temperature in tropical latitudes of the Pacific,Atlantic, and Indian Oceans from long-period data series

Based on the concept of the Wiener&–Granger causality, a seasonal trivariate analysis of directional couplings between sea surface temperature variations in tropical latitudes of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans has been performed. These variations are related to significant modes of regional and global climatic variability. We have analyzed time series of monthly indices of Pacific Ocean processes of the El Ni&ño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), equatorial Atlantic mode (EAM), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)&—along with its western and eastern poles for the period of 1870&–2015. A scheme of interactions between the processes under study where coupling strength estimates are presented, along with estimates of the season of its maximal value and the coupling coefficient sign, has been developed. We have found the seasonal influences of ENSO on the western and eastern poles of IOD, the eastern pole of IOD on ENSO, EAM on ENSO, and IOD on EAM to be the most significant couplings.     

Larval dispersal and vertical migration behaviour – a simulation study for short dispersal times

Current speed often varies with depth, so vertical movements of larvae are expected to have profound effects on dispersal velocity and therefore dispersal potential. Systematic behaviours are expected to have strong effects on dispersal. However, reliable information on the presence of vertical migrations in larvae is scarce, but the few well investigated empirical examples justify a detailed simulation study and an analysis of potential effects. We present a spatially explicit 3D hydrodynamic model that incorporates biological information in the form of active particles advected in a Lagrangian fashion. The set‐up is designed to analyze the sensitivity of dispersal distances to variation in vertical behaviour of larvae. We simulated short (4 days) pelagic larval durations (PLDs) to determine whether behaviour might be important over short dispersal periods. We found that sinusoidal behaviours (slow vertical migration) in or out of phase with tides did not significantly change the dispersal patterns compared to those of larvae that remained at the surface. By contrast, a quadratic pattern of behaviour resulting in rapid vertical migration, in or out of phase with tides, had dramatic effects on both distance and direction of dispersal. The resulting dispersal kernels were found to be multimodal due to the interaction between tidal and meteorological components in flow. Incorporating biological information on larval migrations in Lagrangian simulation of dispersal will be important in estimates of connectivity and forecasting marine reserve networks.     

Phosphorus and nitrogen cyclings in the pelagic system of hiroshima bay: Results of numerical model simulation

A numerical ecosystem model expressing both phosphorus and nitrogen cyclings in the pelagic system of Hiroshima Bay, Japan, was developed in order to investigate the seasonal variations of these elements and their annual budgets. Based on the geophysical and chemical structures of the bay, Hiroshima Bay was divided into northern and southern boxes, themselves divided into two layers of an upper 5 m and a lower layer according to the stratification of the water column. The model consists of equations representing all relevant physical and biological processes. The results revealed that the internal regeneration of materials was an important source of bioavailable nutrients for phytoplankton growth in the water column. The incorporation of phytoplankton aggregation improved the accuracy of the outputs in comparison to the observed data, especially during the stratified summer season. The results also indicated that phosphorus limitation of phytoplankton growth occurs in the upper layer during summer while light limitation occurs in the lower layer. In addition, physical processes such as diffusion and advection were also important as they ensured that most of regenerated nutrients in the lower layer were transported to the upper layer. Thus, these processes might support the high primary production and the production of oysters that are extensively cultured in this bay. Considering the informative results obtained, the model used in this study provides a sound basis and tool to describe the dynamics of phosphorus and nitrogen cyclings in Hiroshima Bay.     

Near-surface current measurement from a surface following data buoy (DB1)—II. An harmonic and residual analysis of current meter records

This part of the paper examines near-surface current data from different periods during the test mooring of the data buoy, DB1.Harmonic analyses show that variations in the major tidal constituents between each period are not significantly greater than the standard error of the measurement: the differences observed in the principal lunar semi-diurnal tide are explained partly in terms of a modulation by adjacent constituents. Unexpected forms for the quarter diurnal tidal ellipses derived from the DB1 data have been found also in independent measurements, in which a different mooring technique had been used. These are therefore unlikely to be of instrumental origin.Non-tidal energy at periods exceeding three days is shown to correlate with changes in wind and surface elevation, the correspondence between wind and current being greatest during a period of strong winds, when current at 3 m depth was 0.9% of wind speed at 8 m. The data are interpreted in favour of an Eulerian current rather than Lagrangian Stokes transport due to waves. Rectification of wave orbital velocities due to buoy motion is not detectable.In view of the overall quality of the data it is concluded that this combination of surface following buoy and long-path acoustic current meter can contribute usefully to the determination of mean near-surface currents in the open sea.     

Near-surface current measurement from a surface following data buoy (DB1)—I : An intercomparison of records from data buoy current meters and near-surface drifting float displacements

The measurement of near-surface current in the open sea presents difficult problems, of both sensor design and mooring in the surface wave field. However, knowledge of such currents is of considerable importance in research and offshore engineering. Consequently the development of an acoustic surface current meter has received particular attention within an experimental data buoy project which has been undertaken in the United Kingdom (DB1 Project). The development of any new sensor is necessarily followed by a thorough analysis of its performance, and it is this aspect to which this paper is devoted. The first part describes an experiment in which the displacements of drifting floats, tracked acoustically, were compared with the integrated output from the acoustic current meter: also a comparison with a buoy-mounted electromagnetic sensor. The extent of agreement between these different techniques is examined.A subsequent part discusses some longer term aspects of the performance of the current meter, which has operated almost continuously for 18 months at a test site close to the east coast of England.     

Sea surface height variability in the Rio de la Plata estuary from synoptic to inter-annual scales: Results of numerical simulations

A long term simulation of the barotropic circulation in the Río de la Plata estuary was performed with the aim of identifying the characteristic patterns of sea surface height (SSH) variability from synoptic to inter-annual time scales and their forcing mechanisms. Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HamSOM), forced by tides, monthly mean runoffs and 4-daily 10 m winds and surface atmospheric pressure from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis was run. The solution was analyzed for the period 1965–2004. Inter-annual variability accounts for almost 10% of the variance. The first EOF mode of SSH variability on this time scale is associated with a mean anomaly of approximately 0.25 m at the upper estuary forced by both runoff and winds, which seems to be strongly associated with the ENSO cycles. Other two modes, with periodicities around 2.5 and 10 years were also found. Even though they are linked to weaker SSH anomalies, they are consistent with inter-annual modes of wind variability reported by other authors. Those modes are important, particularly if they act in phase, because they can provide a background for stronger surges. In contrast with the salinity field, SSH variability on seasonal time scales accounts for a very small percentage of variance and it is the combination of an annual and a semi-annual signal forced by winds and runoff, respectively. Approximately 90% of the variance is due to wind driven variability on sub-annual time scales. The most significant SSH anomalies in this band are associated with cyclogenetic events in the atmosphere, occurring either over Uruguay or over the Patagonian Shelf, whereas the strengthening or weakening of the semi-permanent South Atlantic anticyclone displays a relatively smaller influence. In agreement with previous publications, the estuary's spatial patterns in response to short-scale wind variability seem to be determined by wind direction more than by wind speed.     

Linear and non-linear T–S models for the eastern North Atlantic from Argo data: Role of surface salinity observations

Linear and non-linear empirical models for salinity (S) are estimated from the Argo temperature (T) and salinity (delayed) data. This study focuses on the reconstruction of salinity in the upper 1200 m of the eastern North Atlantic Ocean, a region characterized by the presence of many different water masses. While previous studies have found it necessary to split this region by boxes to fit different polynomial models in each box, a unique model valid for the entire region is fitted here. Argo profiles are randomly distributed on two sets: one for fitting the models and one for testing them. Non-linear regressions are built using neural networks with a single hidden layer and the fitting data set is further divided into two subsets: one for adjusting the coefficients (training data) and one for early stopping of the fitting (validation data). Our results indicate that linear regressions perform better than the climatologic T–S relationship, but that non-linear regressions perform better than the linear ones. Non-linear training using a three-data subsets strategy successfully prevents overfitting even when networks with 90 neurons in the hidden layer are being trained. While the presence of local minima may complicate the generalization of non-linear models to new data, network committees (created by training the same network from different random initial weights) are shown to better reproduce the test data. Several predictors are tested, and the results show that geographical, or surface, information does provide significant information. These results highlight the potential applications of future satellite missions measuring sea-surface salinity to reconstruct, when combined with temperature profiles, vertical salinity profiles.     

Impact of freshwater influx on microzooplankton mediated food web in a tropical estuary (Cochin backwaters – India)

The diversity, abundance and biomass of microzooplankton in Cochin backwaters were studied for the first time during pre-summer monsoon to peak of summer monsoon (April–July 2003) to understand the impact of large freshwater influx. Microzooplankton abundance and biomass were highest during pre-summer monsoon (av. 3817 ind. L⁻¹ and 146 μg C L⁻¹) that declined with the onset (av. 2052 ind. L⁻¹ and 45 μg C L⁻¹) and peak (av. 409 ind. L⁻¹ and 10 μg C L⁻¹) summer monsoon. Species diversity, richness and evenness of microzooplankton also showed similar trends as that of abundance and biomass. Grazing experiment showed that microzooplankton consumes 43 ± 1% of the daily phytoplankton standing stock during the high saline condition (27.5). Low abundance of microzooplankton during summer monsoon period (1/8 of the pre-summer monsoon value) along with the concomitant occurrence of low mesozooplankton (1/8 times of pre-summer monsoon value) suggests that there could be a general lack of planktonic grazers. This would result in a weak transfer of primary and bacterial carbon to higher trophic levels, eventually leaving behind much unconsumed basic food in the estuary during summer monsoon. Thus a major portion of the primary carbon either settles down or gets transported to the coastal regions during monsoon. High flushing of Cochin backwaters also facilitates faster removal of primary producers to the coastal regions during monsoon.     

Prediction of annual average sedimentation rates in an estuary using numerical models with verification against core data – Mahurangi Estuary, New Zealand

Modelling sedimentation rates within an estuary over the time scale of years to decades is a difficult undertaking. The complex nature of sediment transport and the compounding errors associated with making predictions over longer time-scales introduce a high degree of uncertainty when predicting the fate of catchment-derived sediments. In this paper a methodology is presented that links catchment and estuary models that simulate the runoff of sediment from catchments and its subsequent dispersal within the estuary to provide estimates of annual sedimentation rates within the estuary. The models are calibrated against short-term field data and the methodology is validated against sedimentation rates obtained from sediment cores.The catchment of the Mahurangi Estuary delivers between 3800 and 39,000 tonnes/yr with an average load of just over 15,000 tonnes/yr being delivered to the estuary. Data from sediment cores show that over 80% of this load is deposited within the estuary resulting in sedimentation rates of 25 mm/yr in the upper estuary and less than 5 mm/yr in the lower sections of the estuary. The methodology predicts these rates of sedimentation across a range of sub environments within the estuary.     

2016年12月青岛一次持续重污染天气的观测分析与数值模拟

选取2016年12月17—22日青岛一次典型重污染天气,利用大气污染物监测结果、地面气象要素观测资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）ERA5再分析数据对此次过程中大气污染物及气象场的变化特征进行分析。观测分析表明此次污染过程持续时间长达5 d以上,其中19—21日为重污染天气（PM 2.5 日均质量浓度ρ>150 μg·m-3）。根据气象场和PM2.5质量浓度变化特征,此次污染过程可分为3个阶段：17日02时—19日08时为青岛污染物累积阶段,研究区受西南风控制,PM2.5质量浓度逐渐上升,700 hPa等压面上高空槽的维持及槽前持续的南风、西南风有利于污染物累积,同时近地面相对湿度增加,是此次持续性重污染天气形成的重要条件;19日09时—20日20时为青岛污染维持加剧阶段,相对湿度大、风速很小,污染物扩散条件差,PM2.5质量浓度最高;20日21时—22日08时为青岛污染消散阶段,青岛对流层中下层及地面风速均增大并产生弱降水,有利于污染物扩散稀释和湿清除,PM2.5质量浓度逐渐降低。WRF-Chem数值模式能够较好地模拟出主要气象要素和青岛PM2.5 质量浓度的变化特征,模拟结果表明山东省内污染物排放贡献了青岛PM2.5的49.5%;污染物跨省输送对此次污染事件也有重要贡献,其中来自研究区以南的安徽和江苏的排放对青岛PM2.5的贡献率可达25.5%。     

A 1998–1992 comparison of inorganic carbon and its transport across 24.5°N in the Atlantic

In January and February 1998, when an unprecedented fourth repetition of the zonal hydrographic transect at 24.5°N in the Atlantic was undertaken, carbon measurements were obtained for the second time in less than a decade. The field of total carbon along this section is compared to that provided by 1992 cruise which followed a similar path (albeit in a different season). Consistent with the increase in atmospheric carbon levels, an increase in anthropogenic carbon concentrations of 8±3 μmolkg⁻¹ was found in the surface layers. Using an inverse analysis to determine estimates of absolute velocity, the flux of inorganic carbon across 24.5° is estimated to be −0.74±0.91 and −1.31±0.99 PgCyr⁻¹ southward in 1998 and 1992, respectively. Estimates of total inorganic carbon flux depend strongly upon the estimated mass transport, particularly of the Deep Western Boundary Current. The 1998 estimate reduces the large regional divergence in the meridional carbon transport suggested by previous studies and brings into question the idea that the tropical Atlantic constantly outgasses carbon, while the subpolar Atlantic sequesters it. Uncertainty in the carbon transports themselves, dominated by the uncertainty in the total mass transport estimates, are a hindrance to determining the “true” picture.The flux of anthropogenic carbon (C_ANTH) across the two transects is estimated as northward at 0.20±0.08 and 0.17±0.06 PgCyr⁻¹ for the 1998 and 1992 sections, respectively. The net transport of C_ANTH across 24.5°N is strongly affected by the difference in concentrations between the northward flowing shallow Florida Current and the mass balancing, interior return flow. The net northward transport of C_ANTH is opposite the net flow of total carbon and suggests, as has been found by others, that the pre-industrial southward transport of carbon within the Atlantic was stronger than it is today. Combining these flux results with estimates of atmospheric and riverine inorganic carbon input, it is determined that today's oceanic carbon system differs from the pre-industrial system in that today there is an uptake of anthropogenic carbon to the south that is advected northward and stored within the North Atlantic basin.     

Lessons from offshore: Challenges and opportunities in linking data to promote understanding of accidents and injuries among Newfoundland and Labrador fishers 1989–2001

The Newfoundland fishery has always been a dangerous industry, but since the collapse of groundfish stocks the pattern of risks has changed. To understand these changes we developed the Fishing Vessel Safety Longitudinal Analysis, a linked database comprising Department of Fisheries and Oceans catch and effort records, Search and Rescue Information System records, and Newfoundland and Labrador Workplace Health Safety and Compensation Commission claims. This paper discusses the methodological challenges and solutions associated with linking these databases. We conclude that improved coordination between these agencies is a prerequisite for linking their respective databases, which would in turn offer greatly enhanced opportunities to contribute to fishing safety.     

A singular evolutive extended Kalman filter to assimilate ocean color data in a coupled physical–biochemical model of the North Atlantic ocean

Within the European DIADEM project, a data assimilation system for coupled ocean circulation and marine ecosystem models has been implemented for the North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas. One objective of this project is to demonstrate the relevance of sophisticated methods to assimilate satellite data such as altimetry, surface temperature and ocean color, into realistic ocean models. In this paper, the singular evolutive extended Kalman (SEEK) filter, which is an advanced assimilation scheme where three-dimensional, multivariate error statistics are taken into account, is used to assimilate ocean color data into the biological component of the coupled system. The marine ecosystem model, derived from the FDM model [J. Mar. Res. 48 (1990) 591], includes 11 nitrogen and carbon compartments and describes the synthesis of organic matter in the euphotic zone, its consumption by animals of upper trophic levels, and the recycling of detritic material in the deep ocean. The circulation model coupled to the ecosystem is the Miami isopycnic coordinate ocean model (MICOM), which covers the Atlantic and the Arctic Oceans with an enhanced resolution in the North Atlantic basin. The model is forced with realistic ECMWF ocean/atmosphere fluxes, which permits to resolve the seasonal variability of the circulation and mixed layer properties. In the twin assimimation experiments reported here, the predictions of the coupled model are corrected every 10 days using pseudo-measurements of surface phytoplankton as a substitute to chlorophyll concentrations measured from space. The diagnostics of these experiments indicate that the assimilation is feasible with a reduced-order Kalman filter of small rank (of order 10) as long as a sufficiently good identification of the error structure is available. In addition, the control of non-observed quantities such as zooplankton and nitrate concentrations is made possible, owing to the multivariate nature of the analysis scheme. However, a too severe truncation of the error sub-space downgrades the propagation of surface information below the mixed layer. The reduction of the actual state vector to the surface layers is therefore investigated to improve the estimation process in the perspective of sea-viewing wide field-of-view sensor (SeaWiFS) data assimilation experiments.