Particulate PAHs levels at Mt. Halla site in Jeju Island, Korea: Regional background levels in northeast Asia

The levels of PM.25 PAHs at Mt. Halla site, Jeju Island, a background site in Korea were observed between March 1999 and March 2002. A seasonal variation was observed for the particulate PAHs concentrations with high levels during cold season similar to Gosan, a nearby coastal background site, due to the seasonal variations of fossil fuel usage in Asia. The total average concentration of ambient particulate PAHs was 404 ± 579 pg m^− 3, about one order lower than the ambient level at Gosan. However, the ratios of the anthropogenic inorganic ion concentrations between Mt. Halla and Gosan were smaller, 1.5 for non sea-salt (nss) sulfate and 2.7 for nitrate. Two possible explanations for these characteristics are (1) two sites measured different air parcels and/or (2) the effect of local emissions were different at two sites. Based on the Bep/BaP ratio result, upper air wind direction data, backward trajectory analysis, and LIDAR measurement data at Gosan, it was found that the degree of the effects of local emissions to the sampling sites be the major reason for the different PAHs levels at two sites though, in some cases, the air parcels arriving at Mt. Halla were different from those arriving at Gosan. For secondary aerosol such as nss sulfate, the lower concentration difference indicates both site are affected by regional transport. It points that the measurement result for directly emitted species such as PAHs at Gosan might be significantly influenced by local emissions.     

Formation of spring warm water southwest of the Philippine Islands: Winter monsoon wake effects

From satellite observations and the reanalysis data, the late spring formation of warm water with temperature higher than 30 °C to the southwest of the Philippine Islands (8–18°N, 115–120°E) is investigated. Our analysis suggests that the blockage of the winter monsoon by the Philippine Islands results in this “Luzon warm water” (LWW) to the southwest of the Luzon Island and the “Vietnam cold tongue” (VCT) to the southeast of the Vietnam coast during winter and early spring in the South China Sea (SCS). The VCT is formed by the southward cold advection by the western boundary current and surface heat loss in the SCS. During the winter monsoon, the LWW first forms due to weak winds southwest of the Philippine Islands and the countering effect of warm Ekman advection against cold geostrophic advection. In spring its temperature exceeds 30 °C (LWW30), helped by strong solar radiation and the winter monsoon wake effect lee of the Philippine Islands. With the winter monsoon weakening, LWW30 extends southwestward in late spring but disappears quickly after the summer monsoon onset. Reduced latent heat flux in the winter monsoon wake is the dominant factor for the spring fast warming southwest of the Philippine Islands.Both VCT and LWW persist from winter to early spring as the Philippine Islands block the winter monsoon. Their interannual variations are correlated with the variation of the LWW30 since the blockage of the winter monsoon by the Philippine Islands modifies surface latent heat flux and ocean advection from winter to early spring. These results strongly suggest that the LWW30 is a result of land–sea–winter monsoon interaction.     

Homogeneous freezing of single sulfuric and nitric acid solution drops levitated in an acoustic trap

The freezing temperatures of single supercooled drops of binary and ternary sulfuric and nitric acid solutions were measured while varying the acid concentration. An acoustic levitator was used which allows to freely suspend single solution drops in air without electrical charges thereby avoiding any electrical influences which may affect the freezing process. The drops of typically 500 µm in radius were monitored by a video camera during cooling cycles down to − 85 °C to simulate the upper tropospheric and stratospheric temperature range. The present data confirm that liquid solution droplets can be supercooled far below the equilibrium melting point by approximately 35 °C. They follow the general trend of the expected freezing temperatures for homogeneous ice nucleation.     

Measurements of natural ice nuclei with a continuous flow diffusion chamber

Measurements of natural ice nuclei were made in winter continental airmasses with a continuous flow thermal gradient diffusion chamber (described in a separate paper). Over the range of temperatures −7°C to −20°C, the concentration of ice nuclei was closely related to ice supersaturation (SS_i) for humidities both below and above water saturation. Measurements below water saturation were interpreted as deposition nuclei with average concentrations (per liter) approximately 0.32 SS_i(%)^0.81. Measurements were made up to 5% above water saturation and activated both deposition and condensation-freezing nuclei. The average concentration of condensation-freezing nuclei was 0.25 e^{−0.15 T(°C)}. Sample residence time in the chamber was probably too small to detect contact nuclei, unless the nucleating aerosols are extremely small. There was large variability in nucleus concentrations, as much as two orders of magnitude at −15°C. Comparisons are made between these ice nuclei measurements and aircraft observations of ice crystal concentrations in winter orographic clouds.     

Seasonal Characteristics of Surface Radiation Fluxes on the East Rongbuk Glacier in the Mt. Everest Region

Ground-based measurements are essential for understanding alpine glacier dynamics, especially in remote regions where in-situ measurements are extremely limited. From 1 May to 22 July 2005 (the spring-summer period), and from 2 October 2007 to 20 January 2008 (the autumn-winter period), surface radiation as well as meteorological variables were measured over the accumulation zone on the East Rongbuk Glacier of Mt. Qomolangma/Everest at an elevation of 6560 m a.s.l. by using an automatic weather station (AWS). The results show that surface meteorological and radiative characteristics were controlled by two major synoptic circulation regimes: the southwesterly Indian monsoon regime in summer and the westerlies in winter. At the AWS site on the East Rongbuk Glacier, north or northwest winds prevailed with high wind speed (up to 35 m s-1 in January) in winter while south or southeast winds predominated after the onset of the southwesterly Indian monsoon with relatively low wind speed in summer. Intensity of incoming shortwave radiation was extremely high due to the high elevation, multiple reflections between the snow/ice surface and clouds, and the high reflective surrounding surface. These factors also caused the observed 10-min mean solar radiation fluxes around local noon to be frequently higher than the solar constant from May to July 2005. The mean surface albedo ranged from 0.72 during the spring-summer period to 0.69 during the autumn-winter period. The atmospheric incoming longwave radiation was greatly affected by the cloud condition and atmospheric moisture content. The overall impact of clouds on the net all-wave radiation balance was negative in the Mt. Qomolangma region. The daily mean net all-wave radiation was positive during the entire spring-summer period and mostly positive during the autumn-winter period except for a few overcast days. On monthly basis, the net all-wave radiation was always positive.     

Formate and acetate levels compared in monsoon and winter rainwater at Dayalbagh, Agra (India)

A total of 59 rainwater samples were collected during the winter and monsoon (1991–92) at Dayalbagh, Agra. This site is relatively free from the influence of anthropogenic emissions and the volume-weighted average concentrations (VWA) of formate in the winter and monsoon were 22.5±6, 16.1±3 while acetate VWAs were 17.1±5 and 13.8±3 mol l^-1, respectively. Although the VWAs varied between seasons, it was not statistically different. Total deposition (in mmol m^-2) varied between season (winter formate, 1.4; acetate, 1.1; monsoon formate, 7.4; acetate, 6.4). A difference in VWA values may have occurred as a result of the dilution factor; the total rain depth from collected samples in the monsoon was 46 cm while that in winter was 6.3 cm. Sources at this site may be anthropogenic and natural; scavenging from the vapour phase, washout of soil particles and emissions from vegetative sources are probably important sources for formate and acetate.     

Mid latitude winter climate variability in the South Indian and southwest Pacific regions since 1300 AD

Mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability in the South Indian Ocean and southwest Pacific Ocean regions of the circum-Antarctic are reconstructed using sea-salt aerosol concentrations measured in the high resolution Law Dome (DSS) ice core from East Antarctica. The sea-salt aerosol concentration data, as sodium (Na), were measured at approximately monthly resolution spanning the past 700 years. Analyses of covariations between Na concentrations in Law Dome ice, and mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) and wind field data were conducted to define the mid-latitude and sub-Antarctic atmospheric circulation patterns associated with variations in Na delivery. High Na concentrations in Law Dome snow are associated with increased meridional aerosol transport from mid-latitude sources. The seasonal average Na concentration for early winter (May, June, July (MJJ)) is strongly correlated to the mid-latitude MSLP field in the South Indian and southwest Pacific Oceans, and southern Australian regions. In addition, the average MJJ Na concentrations display a strong association with the stationary Rossby wave number 3 circulation, and are anti-correlated to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index of climate variability: high (low) Na concentrations occurring during negative (positive) SAM phases. This observed relationship is used to derive a proxy record for early-winter MSLP anomalies and the SAM in the South Indian and southwest Pacific Ocean regions over the period 1300–1995 AD. The proxy SAM index from 1300 to 1995 AD shows pronounced decadal-scale variability throughout. The period after 1500 AD is marked by a tendency toward slower variations and a weakly-positive mean SAM (enhanced westerlies in the 50° to 65°S zone) compared to the early part of the record.     

Cloud distributions over the coastal Arctic Ocean: surface-based and satellite observations

All-weather Arctic cloud analyses primarily derived from a surface-based hemispheric all-sky imager are compared against ISCCP D-1 cloud amount, type, and phase during the sunlit polar season. Increasing surface temperatures and decreasing ice cover over the past decade have altered heat and moisture fluxes around the Arctic, providing conditions more conducive for cloud generation. Shipboard and ice camp measurements from field experiments conducted over an 8-year period show cloudy skies in 70–95% of the record. Most of these occurrences are stratiform or multi-level, multi-form cloud, increasing in amount with time through the season. Collocated ISCCP retrievals underestimate cloud amount at small solar zenith angles and overestimate at large angles, sometimes by as much as 50%. Satellite assessments of cloud form classify 95% of scenes as having multiple cloud types, the majority of which are mid-level ice cloud and low-level liquid cloud. Despite large discrepancies in diurnal cloud amount, regional averages of ISCCP pixel cloudiness over the length of the experiments agree within ±5% of surface observations.     

Heavy metals in aerosol samples from the Eastern Pamirs collected 2004–2006

This study measured the concentration of heavy metal elements in atmospheric aerosol samples collected between July 2004 and April 2006 at a remote site on Mt. Muztagata (38°17'N, 75°01'E, 4430 m), in the Eastern Pamirs. Inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (ICP–MS) results show that the air at Muztagata contains low concentrations of As and heavy metal elements (Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, and Bi), comparable with those in the Arctic — far lower than in heavily populated or industrialized areas. Observed enrichment factor (EF) values greater than 10 for those elements suggest partly anthropogenic sources. Seasonal variations in the concentrations of Zn, Cd, Pb, Bi, and As resemble those of crustal Al, with greater concentrations during the summer but lower ones in winter. Our results reveal that the background atmosphere in remote inner Asia is only weakly affected by anthropogenic pollution, and demonstrate that high heavy metal concentrations occur during summer but with greater EF values during the winter. The air mass back-trajectory analyses suggest that pollution from West Asia, Central Asia, and South Asia are the main possible source areas that contribute to the heavy metals in aerosols at Muztagata.     

Relationship between rainfall and lightning over central Indian region in monsoon and premonsoon seasons

Lightning activity and rainfall over the central Indian region (lat, 15.5° N to 25.5° N and lon, 75° E to 85° E) from the TRMM satellite have been analyzed. Ten years' data of monthly lightning and hourly averaged monthly rainfall from 1998 to 2007 have been used for analysis, which shows quite different relationships between lightning and rainfall in monsoon and premonsoon seasons in this region. Very good positive correlation is observed between rainfall and lightning during the premonsoon period, however, in the monsoon period a correlation between them is not so good. The different relationship between lightning and rainfall in the monsoon and premonsoon has been attributed to the low updraft during the monsoon period due to low cloud base height and low aerosol concentration during this period. This analysis shows that deep electrified convective systems do form over the central Indian region during active monsoon periods; however the relationship between convective rainfall and lightning frequency during this period is not as consistent as during the premonsoon period.     

Urban and rural observations of carboxylic acids in rainwater in Southwest of China: the impact of urbanization

Seven carboxylic acids in rainwater were simultaneously determined using ion chromatography for 13 months in two different sites, Guiyang and Shangzhong, southwest of China. Results showed formic, acetic and oxalic acids were the three predominant carboxylic acids. Their volume-weighted average concentrations were 14.24, 9.35, 2.79 μmol/L in Guiyang and 4.95, 1.35, 2.31 μmol/L in Shangzhong, respectively. A distinctive diurnal pattern in carboxylic acid concentrations (daytime>nighttime, t test, p < 0.05) was observed during the growing season in Guiyang. Shangzhong witnessed higher concentration of these acids during the growing season than that during the non-growing season. Direct emissions from growing vegetation or soils probably account for the main provenance of the acids in the rural area. However, the opposite trend were found in Guiyang and the anthropogenic sources during the non-growing season were the main reason. By comparison of our result with the previous data about 20 years ago, we calculated that at least 42% of acetic acids and 69% of formic acid originated from the anthropogenic sources in Guiyang. Furthermore, the ratio of formate/acetate in gas phase larger than 1 suggest the oxidation of unsaturated hydrocarbons from the human activity and/or natural sources were the main origin of carboxylic acids in Guiyang. While The F/A ratio in gas phase was less than 1 in Shangzhong which indicate the direct emissions from biogenic sources. Oxalic acid was in similar amounts in both sites, indicating the common source of the acid.     

Laser depolarization studies of simulated crystallized H2O/H2SO4 clouds

Laboratory experiments were carried out to investigate the linear depolarization ratios (LDRs) of crystallized H₂O/H₂SO₄ acid clouds at angles of 45°, 135° and 157° to the forward direction. LDR is the ratio of the returned energies in the planes of polarization perpendicular and parallel to that of the source (Sassen, 1974). Experiments were carried out for different concentrations of aqueous solution of sulfuric acid. A cloud of supercooled droplets is formed inside an experimental chamber kept in a walk-in cold room by heating an aqueous solution of sulfuric acid, and the ice crystal formation is initiated by momentarily introducing a rod dipped in liquid nitrogen into the cloud. A 2-mW polarized He:Ne laser beam is directed through the cloud and a photomultiplier tube measures the scattered intensity. It is found that the scattered energy is higher in the direction of 157° and 135° than that at 45°. Microscopic examination of the crystals formed from acid concentrations above 50% shows dark fuzzy spots on the surface of the ice crystals suggesting that this could be a film of acid drops. This film also alters the shape of the crystals, and the crystal boundaries are no longer sharp and well defined like that observed for pure water clouds and this is found to influence the LDR.     

Carbonaceous aerosols over Pune and Hyderabad (India) and influence of meteorological factors

Sampling of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter cut off at 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) has been carried out over a semi urban site of Pune and an urban site of Hyderabad. Analysis of elemental Carbon (EC) and Organic Carbon (OC) present in PM_2.5 was carried out using advanced Desert Research Institute’s (DRI) Thermal/Optical Carbon Analyzer operated on IMPROVE_ A (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments_ A) protocol. It is found that average concentration of EC and OC both at Pune and Hyderabad was highest during winter season and lowest during monsoon season. Winter high is mainly controlled by inversion, whereas monsoon low is due to rain-out and wash-out process. OC/EC ratio showed higher variation over Pune compared to that over Hyderabad in different seasons, indicating divergent sources of emission of OC and EC at Pune. Formation of Secondary Organic Carbon (SOC) has also been identified as one of the reasons for wide variation in OC/EC ratio value in different seasons over both the sites.     

Fluctuations of Tropical Easterly Jet during contrasting monsoons over India: A GCM study

Summary  The fluctuations of intensity of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) and its association with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall have been examined using the diagnostics from NCEP/NCAR (National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research) reanalyses project for the period 1986 to 1994. The intensity of TEJ is found to be well correlated with India summer monsoon rainfall. The TEJ is weaker/stronger during the El Ni?o/La Ni?a year of 1987/1988 and is associated with deficient (excess) summer monsoon rainfall over India. A numerical study was carried out for the same period using the Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere studies General Circulation Model (COLA GCM, T30L18) with observed Sea-Surface Temperature (SST). The GCM simulates the TEJ with reasonable accuracy. The strong interannual variability of TEJ during the El Ni?o/La Ni?a years of 1987/1988 are well simulated in the GCM. Like observations, the intensity of the TEJ is positively correlated with the summer monsoon rainfall over India in the model simulation. The intensity of Tibetan anticyclone and diabatic heating over the Tibetan Plateau diminished during the El Ni?o-year of 1987. The divergence centre in the upper troposphere associated with Asian monsoon becomes weaker and shifts eastward during the weak monsoon season of 1987. However, the opposite happens for the strong monsoon season of 1988. Also the middle and upper tropospheric meridional temperature gradient between the Tibetan High and Indian Ocean region decreased (increased) during the weak(strong) monsoon season of 1987 (1988). Received May 27, 1999/Revised March 20, 2000     

Seasonal trend of particulate PAHs at Gosan, a background site in Korea between 2001 and 2002 and major factors affecting their levels

The concentrations of particulate Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were measured at Gosan, a background site in Korea for 1 year between November 2001 and November 2002. The total concentrations of 14 PAH compounds at Gosan were between 0.52 and 14.76 ng m^− 3 and about 3–15 times higher than those at other rural or remote sites in the world. Seasonal trend was observed for particulate PAHs concentrations at Gosan with higher levels during heating season due to increased fossil fuel usage and the movement of air parcels from Asian continent. Principal component factor analysis (PCF) for PAHs showed three factors; combination of coal combustion and vehicular emission, natural gas combustion, and unidentified one. However, PCF for the combined data of PAHs, inorganic ions, and elements revealed that the unidentified factor consists of crustal species, sea salts, and four PAH compounds. Thus, this factor is thought to be transport of crustal species with organics from combustion sources. The major variables which determine the sources of PAHs are the heating season and the movement of air parcels from Asian continent.     

Relative impacts of insolation changes, meltwater fluxes and ice sheets on African and Asian monsoons during the Holocene

In order to better understand the evolution of the Afro-Asian monsoon in the early Holocene, we investigate the impact on boreal summer monsoon characteristics of (1) a freshwater flux in the North Atlantic from the surrounding melting ice sheets and (2) a remnant ice sheet over North America and Europe. Sensitivity experiments run with the IPSL_CM4 model show that both the meltwater flux and the remnant ice sheets induce a cooling of similar amplitude of the North Atlantic leading to a southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over the tropical Atlantic and to a reduction of the African monsoon. The two perturbations have different impacts in the Asian sector. The meltwater flux results in a weakening of the Indian monsoon and no change in the East Asian monsoon, whereas the remnant ice sheets induce a strengthening of the Indian monsoon and a strong weakening of the East Asian monsoon. Despite the similar coolings in the Atlantic Ocean, the ocean heat transport is reduced only in the meltwater flux experiment, which induces slight differences between the two experiments in the role of the surface latent heat flux in the tropical energetics. In the meltwater experiment, the southward shift of the subtropical jet acts to cool the upper atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau and hence to weaken the Indian monsoon. In the ice sheet experiment this effect is overwhelmed by the changes in extratropical stationary waves induced by the ice sheets, which are associated with a larger cooling over the Eurasian continent than in the meltwater experiment. However these sensitivity experiments suggest that insolation is the dominant factor explaining the relative changes of the African, Indian and East Asian monsoons from the early to the mid-Holocene.     

珠峰北坡绒布河谷大气二氧化碳浓度低值观测

In the summers of 2006 and 2007, the atmospheric CO2 concentration and the wind speed in the Rongbuk Valley on the northern slope of Mt. Everest were measured by an ultrasonic anemometer with an Li-7500 CO2/H2O gas analyzer. The average CO2 concentration was 370.23±0.59 and 367.45±1.91 ppm in June of 2006 and 2007, respectively. The values are much lower than those at sites with similar latitudes and altitudes worldwide. The observed atmospheric CO2 concentration in Rongbuk Valley can be affected by the transportation of prevailing down-valley winds from the up-valley direction to the observation site. Our results suggest that the Mt. Everest region could be ideal for background atmospheric and environmental studies.     

Regional moisture source changes inferred from late holocene stable isotope records

Qinghai Lake, China, is located near the northern limit of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） and thus is an ideal region for studies of past monsoonal changes. However, isotope records from this region reflect the combined effects of multiple climatic factors, and make climatic interpretations difficult. The authors use multi-proxy records, generated from the same sediment core from Qinghai Lake, to disentangle these multiple effects in isotope records and to infer EASM variability during the late Holocene. Records of leaf wax （C2s） δD, lake carbonate 5180 and the Dunde ice core δ18O all indicate a millennial-scale depletion of mean isotopic values at -1500-1250 years before present. Compared with independent lake temperature and salinity records, the authors suggest that this depletion of long-term mean isotopic values must have resulted from changes in moisture sources in this region. In contrast, the authors attribute high-frequency （centennial timescale） C2s δD and ice core δ18O variability dominantly to a temperature effect. The multiproxy records provide a coherent picture in that many aspects of this regional climate （temperature, dryness, and moisture source） are strongly linked to the EASM variability.     

Carbonaceous materials in size-segregated atmospheric aerosols from urban and coastal-rural areas at the Western European Coast

A high-volume cascade impactor, equipped with a PM10 inlet, was used to collect size-segregated aerosol samples during the summer of 2004 at two Portuguese locations: a coastal-rural area (Moitinhos) and an urban area (Oporto). Concentrations of airborne particulate matter (PM), total carbon (TC), organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), and water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) were determined for the following particle size ranges: < 0.49, 0.49–0.95, 0.95–3.0, and 3.0–10 µm. The total PM mass concentrations at the urban and coastal-rural sites ranged from 22.8 to 79.6 μg m^− 3 and 19.9 to 28.2 μg m^− 3, respectively, and more than 56% of the total aerosol mass was found in the fractions below 3.0 μm. At both locations the highest concentrations of OC and EC were found in the submicrometer size range. The regional variability for the OC and EC concentrations, with the highest concentrations being found in the urban area, was related to the contribution of local primary sources (mostly traffic emissions). It was also verified an enrichment of the small size particles in WSOC, representing on average 37.3(± 12.4)% and 59.7(± 18.0)% of OC in the very fine aerosol at the coastal-rural and urban areas, respectively. The amount of secondary OC calculated by the minimum OC/EC ratio method indicates that secondary organic aerosol formation was important throughout the study at both sites. The obtained results suggest that long-range transport and favourable summer conditions for photochemical oxidation are key factors determining secondary OC formation in the coastal-rural and urban areas. The ultraviolet absorption properties of the chromophoric constituents of the WSOC fractions were also different among the different particle size ranges and also between the two sampling locations, thus suggesting the strong impact of the diverse emission sources into the composition of the size-segregated organic aerosol.     

Surface and upper air temperatures over India in relation to monsoon rainfall

Summary The relationship between the all-India summer monsoon rainfall and surface/upper air (850, 700, 500 and 200 mb levels) temperatures over the Indian region and its spatial and temporal characteristics have been examined to obtain a useful predictor for the monsoon rainfall. The data series of all-India and subdivisional summer monsoon rainfall and various seasonal air temperatures at 73 surface observatories and 9 radiosonde stations (1951–1980) have been used in the analysis. The Correlation Coefficients (CCs) between all-India monsoon rainfall and seasonal surface air temperatures with different lags relative to the monsoon season indicate a systematic relationship.The CCs between the monsoon rainfall and surface-air temperature of the preceding MAM (pre-monsoon spring) season are positive over many parts of India and highly significant over central and northwestern regions. The average surface air temperature of six stations i.e., Jodhpur, Ahmedabad, Bombay, Indore, Sagar and Akola in this region (Western Central India, WCI) showed a highly significant CC of 0.60 during the period 1951–1980. This relationship is also found to be consistently significant for the period from 1950 to present, though decreasing in magnitude after 1975. WCI MAM surface air temperature has shown significant CCs with the monsoon rainfall over eleven sub-divisions mainly in northwestern India, i.e., north of 15 °N and west of 80 °E.Upper air temperatures of the MAM season at almost all the stations and all levels considered show positive CCs with the subsequent monsoon rainfall. These correlations are significant at some central and north Indian stations for the lower and middle tropospheric temperatures.The simple regression equation developed for the period 1951–1980 isy = – 183.20 + 8.83x, wherey is the all-India monsoon rainfall in cm andx is the WCI average surface air temperature of MAM season in °C. This equation is significant at 0.1% level. The suitability of this parameter for inclusion in a predictive regression model along with five other global and regional parameters has been discussed. Multiple regression analysis for the long-range prediction of monsoon rainfall, using several combinations of these parameters indicates that the improvement of predictive skill considerably depends upon the selection of the predictors.With 9 Figures