陆地生物圈动态模式:生态系统模拟的发展趋势

陆地生物圈是一个通过能量，水及各个化学要素与大气及物理气候系统进行交换而相互作用的动态系统。由于生物圈平衡模式有很多局限性，目前迫切需要发展新一代模式－生物圈动态模式，用来在全球变化的背景下评价和预测陆地生物圈初级生产力和生物地球化学循环。陆地生物圈动态模式的目的是模拟自然和人类活动扰动导致的陆地生态系统中的动态变化，以及陆地生物圈与大气之间能量，水和碳循环之间的相互作用。开发生物圈动态模式的关键差距并不在于我们没有构建模式源代码的能力，而在于不能很好地描述经验与构建模式所应用的要领之间的联系，尤其是缺乏构模式所必需的数，以及对陆地生态系统复杂机理的认识尚不完整，对如何提高和扩展我们已有的知识以及如何对模式进行验证缺乏了解。数据，模式结构，参数库和预测不确定性之间的相互作用将会推动生物圈动态模式的进步与发展。     

陆地生态系统模拟研究中IBIS模型开发应用的回顾和展望

全球动态植被模型(DGVM)是研究生态系统复杂过程和全球变化的强有力工具。本文基于过去20多年全球已发表的文献,对得到广泛关注和应用的DGVM之一——集成生物圈模拟器(Integrated Biosphere Simulator,IBIS)的开发、改进、发展及应用进行了总结。IBIS是一个在全球变化等多领域中有着广泛应用的模型。自1996年诞生以来,IBIS在陆地生态系统的碳、氮、水循环,植被动态、陆气耦合、水域系统耦合和气候变化影响等多个方面取得了验证和应用。本文较为系统地阐述了IBIS模型在V2.5版本后的不同发展方向,主要针对IBIS模型在水文过程(蒸散、土壤水分、地下水、径流)、植被动态(植被功能型、土地覆盖变化)、植被生理过程(植被物候、光合作用、植被生长、碳分配)、土壤生物地球化学过程(土壤碳氮循环及反馈、温室气体排放等)以及包括土地利用变化、干扰与管理等人类活动过程等方面的改进与发展进行了全面的综述;在此基础上,对模型在生态系统生产力、碳水收支、水分利用效率、温室气体排放、自然干扰(干旱、火灾、虫害)和人类活动(土地利用变化、农业经营)等方面的应用,以及模型的技术性改进方面进行了回顾;最后对模型的前景和进一步发展提出了一些见解。     

The El Cielo Biosphere Reserve: Forest Cover Changes and Conservation Attitudes in an Important Neotropical Region

This article combines approaches to better understand both forest cover changes and attitudes toward environmental conservation in the El Cielo Biosphere Reserve in northeastern Mexico. Satellite images are used to document the extent and response of forest cover in the reserve before and after its designation as a biosphere reserve. Ethnographic interviews are also employed to examine the attitudes of local people toward the costs and benefits of the biosphere reserve in their lives. Our research found that unlike many “paper parks,” large-scale deforestation has stopped and forest cover has expanded after the biosphere reserve was created. Our research also found that local people value both tangible and intangible benefits created by the biosphere reserve.     

Climate Change,Bushfire Risk,and Environmental Values: Examining a Potential Risk Perception Threshold in Peri-Urban South Australia

Striking a balance between the management of environmental risks and values is a challenge for decision-makers. If people perceive that environmental risks are increasing they may be willing to discount local values to manage those risks, so the identification of thresholds in risk perception in relation to specific behaviors could help to avoid policy failures. The complex relationships between perceptions of climate change and bushfire risks, environmental values and support for actions to mitigate local risks are presented for peri-urban regions in South Australia. The results of a household survey (N=988) suggest that a threshold of risk perception in relation to climate change and bushfire management has not been exceeded and people are broadly supportive of balanced management interventions. A minority of people still do not perceive that climate change is increasing bushfire risk, and are supportive of risk mitigation interventions even at the expense of local biodiversity. However, a larger group believe that climate change is a driver of bushfire risk, yet are still more likely to prioritize ecological values and are unwilling to discount those values for risk mitigation. Targeted communication could assist different groups to respond to gaps in knowledge and action to facilitate effective, differentiated interventions within forested landscapes on the margins of urban areas.     

全球变化与陆地系统综合集成模拟——新一代陆地生态系统动态模型(DLEM)

人类社会从陆地生态系统获取生产和生活资料的同时也作为一种干扰形式改变着地气之间的动态平衡。这三个既独立又相互耦合的子系统共同组成了一个复杂的陆地系统。如何深入理解这一系统的过程和机制是人类应对气候变化挑战的前提条件。陆地生态系统模型作为一种集成工具,已广泛应用于全球变化研究的各个领域,但从输入数据到模型结构和过程等诸多方面仍存在很大的不确定性。近年来,随着大气和地面生态观测网络的不断完善以及遥感等空间技术的不断强大,使陆地生态系统模型进一步发展和突破成为可能。新一代多因子驱动的陆地生态系统动态模型(DynamicL and Ecosystem Model,DLEM)正是在这一背景下应运而生的。本文旨在介绍DLEM的主体框架、输入输出变量、关键过程、主要功能和特点。     

区域尺度陆地生态系统碳增汇途径及其可行性分析

如何实现区域陆地生态系统碳增汇（carbon sequestration）、如何科学地评估/认证其碳汇效应,目前仍是一个颇具争议的科学问题。本文探讨了区域陆地生态系统碳增汇途径,并对现阶段中国陆地生态系统主要人为管理措施的碳汇效应进行了定性评价。从技术和经济可行性看,许多人为管理措施均具有较明显的碳汇效应;但在确定技术或经济投入规模时,应充分考虑特定人为管理措施下生态系统碳增汇的特征曲线,合理地控制投入,实现人为管理措施碳增汇效应最优化。此外,基于定性评价结果,本文分别针对森林、草地、农田和湿地生态系统提出了行之有效的碳汇管理措施。建议相关科学家围绕这些已较大面积推广的管理措施,深入研究其碳收支过程及其机理,尽快提出科学的、可验证的碳增汇认证方法,为科学地评估中国陆地生态系统碳汇功能提供理论依据。     

土地覆被及生态服务价值变化的多时间尺度模拟——以四川省渔子溪流域为例

根据渔子溪流域1986年和1994年的遥感影像土地覆被解译资料为基础,建立了模拟渔子溪流域生态环境变化的Markov Chain模型和Patch-dynamics模型,并以2002年遥感影像资料作为验证数据对模型进行了误差分析。以此为基础,分别以1年和8年的时间尺度对渔子溪流域土地覆被及其生态服务价值的变化进行了模拟,结果表明,时间尺度对模拟结果具有显著影响：在1年和8年的模拟尺度下,以Markov Chain模型得到的流域生态服务价值在1986~2018年间变化的相对误差为20%;不同土地覆被类型在不同步长下模拟结果的相对误差不一样,表明不同土地覆被类型变化的特征时间尺度不一样,以Patch-dynamics模型的模拟结果为例,步长为1年比步长为8年的相对误差大的土地覆被类型为耕地 (-8.2%/-5.6%)、有林地 (-0.5%/-0.4%)、草地 (0.7%/0.4%) 和居民建设用地 (-29.9%/-16.4%),它们的年际变化较大,其变化趋势不稳定,受到人为偶然因素的影响明显;而相对误差较小的土地覆被类型为灌木林 (-1.5%/-1.7%) 和永久冰雪覆盖 (27.3%/41.9%),它们的变化趋势较为稳定,主要受比较稳定的自然因素的影响。研究还表明,采用Markov Chain模型的模拟结果与采用Patch-dynamics模型的模拟结果总体上是一致的,但后者的模拟结果更稳定、更可靠。     

The Manawatu Dunefield: Environmental Change and Human Impacts

Four stages of environmental change are apparent in the Manawatu coastal landscape: the first stage was that of a world wide sea level rise and initiation of the first major dune phase (Foxton or phase I) in the Manawatu. This was followed by a second dune‐building phase (Motuiti or phase II), which was probably initiated by climate change. The second stage occurred in the last 600 to 1000 or so years when Maori first occupied the area, rapidly causing the extinction of a range of fauna, significantly altering the vegetation cover and potentially initiating or assisting the development of a new dune phase (Waitarere or phase 111). The latter part of the Waitarere phase (phase IV) or episode may have been initiated by Europeans in the last 150 years. The third stage of environmental change occurred in the period 1940 to 1990 when large scale sand sheets and transgressive dunefields were significantly stabilised by humans, and parabolic dunes were created. A fourth stage is just beginning where an entirely new suite (or episode) of parabolic dunes has developed from blowouts within the foredune in the last 10 years. Overall, human impact has wrought major environmental changes to one of the greatest examples of Holocene dunefields in New Zealand.     

洽川湿地生态系统服务的使用价值和非使用价值评估

Hechuan wetland is located in the mid-Yellow River and at the intersection of Shaanxi, Shanxi and Henan provinces in China. It is the largest hot spring lake wetland in the Yellow River basin and the birthplace of Guanju, a famous poem in the Book of Songs. Based on field investigations and questionnaires, we valued Hechuan Wetland ecosystem services, considering use values and non-use values. The annual use value of Hechuan Wetland ecosystem services is 79.236 billion CNY. The contingent valuation method was applied to value the annual non-use value, which is 6.27 billion CNY. We examined how the historical and cultural value of the Book of Songs affected respondents’ willingness to pay by establishing a control group. Results suggest that historical and cultural value does have a strong influence on willingness to pay.     

基于生态系统服务价值变化的环境与经济协调发展评价——以大庆市为例

环境与经济协调发展是实现可持续发展的重要途径,也是可持续发展的基本要求。生态系统提供的服务功能是实现可持续发展的基础,其价值变化与社会经济发展密切相关,是区域生态环境变化结果的综合化与定量化,可作为表征区域可持续发展水平的一个综合指标。本文以2001-2006年大庆市土地利用变更调查数据为基础,参照谢高地等制定的中国陆地生态系统单位面积服务价值系数及评估方法,结合研究区实际情况对估算方法进行了修正,对土地利用变化所引起的大庆市生态系统服务价值变化进行了估算,并通过构建环境经济协调度指数(CDEE)对研究区环境与经济协调发展水平及区域差异进行了评估。结果表明:(1)大庆市生态系统服务价值由2001年的182.47亿元下降到2006年的180.69亿元,损失率为0.98%;(2)研究区整体的环境经济发展属于低度冲突水平,处于不协调状态;(3)研究区西北部的环境经济协调度高于东南部,其中林甸、杜蒙和肇源三县处于低度协调水平,除萨尔图区外的其他市辖区以及肇州县处于低度冲突水平,萨尔图区则处于严重冲突水平。     

干旱区典型山地绿洲荒漠系统中绿洲土地利用/覆盖变化对生态系统服务价值的影响

研究土地利用/覆盖变化对区域生态系统服务价值的影响具有重要意义。对处于干旱区典型MODS（Mountain-Oasis-Desert System）系统中的新疆南部且末绿洲1989年Landsat TM 影像及2004年的CBERS遥感影像进行处理,分析且末绿洲15 a来的土地利用/覆盖变化。在此基础上,采用中国陆地生态系统服务价值的测算方法,评估且末绿洲土地利用/覆盖变化引起的生态系统服务价值的变化。结果表明,1989-2004年,且末绿洲减少的土地面积有林地、戈壁沙地和盐碱地,增加的土地面积有水域、建筑用地和耕地。林地减少了41.73％,耕地增加了58.04％。1989年且末绿洲生态系统服务价值总额为184 349.88万元,2004年为176 970.72万元,15 a间,生态系统服务价值损失了7 379.16万元。林地面积的减少是生态系统服务价值减少的主要原因。保护区域生态环境,恢复和提高区域生态系统服务功能是该区域生态环境建设的重要任务。     

Values of the Farmland Ecosystem Services of Qingdao City,China, and their Changes

The values of farmland ecosystem services are composed of several components: provisioning service value, regulating service value, supporting service value and cultural service value, so it is important to make a full assessment of the values of farmland ecosystem services for agriculture and farmland protection. Here, we assessed the values of farmland ecosystem services in Qingdao City in 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012 and 2017 by using various methods (market value method, carbon tax method, afforestation cost method, substitute cost method, equivalent factor method, etc.) based on establishing an assessment index system for the farmland ecosystem services value. The results show that the total yearly value of farmland ecosystem services increased from 499.74×10 ⁸ Yuan to 681.74×10 ⁸Yuan in the period of 1997-2017, and the yearly value of farmland ecosystem services per hectare increased from 6.57×10 ⁴ Yuan to 9.73×10 ⁴Yuan. The product provisioning service, carbon fixation service and oxygen release service, as well as the soil conservation service, are the main farmland ecosystem services, and the proportions of these four ecosystem service values to the total value of farmland ecosystem services in Qingdao City were large and kept increasing. Some countermeasures are put forward to adequately use the indirect service value of the farmland ecosystem and provide improved well-being for humans, such as protecting and wisely using farmland, developing agriculture that is rooted in local conditions, promoting agricultural production efficiency, speeding up construction of modern agriculture gardens, deepening the supply-side structural reform of agriculture, developing agricultural eco-tourism, etc.