Ionospheric Time-delay over Akure Using Global Positioning System Observations

Ionospheric time delay (VΔt) variability using Global Positioning System (GPS) data over Akure (7.15°N, 5.12°E), Nigeria, has been studied. The observed variability of VΔt in comparison to older results of vertical total electron content (TEC) across similar regions has shown equivalent signatures. Higher monthly mean values of VΔt (MVΔt) were observed during daytime as compared to nighttime (pre- and post-midnight) hours in all months. The highest MVΔt observed in September during daytime hours range between ~6 and ~21 ns (~1.80 and ~6.30 m) and at post-midnight, they are in the range of ~1 to ~6 ns (~0.3 to ~1.80 m). The possible mechanisms responsible for this variability were discussed. Seasonal VΔt were investigated as well.     

Global Event Location with Full and Sparse Data Sets Using Three-dimensional Models of Mantle P-wave Velocity

—?In order to improve on the accuracy of event locations at teleseismic distances it is necessary to adequately correct for lateral variations in structure along the ray paths, either through deterministic model-based corrections, empirical path/station corrections, or a combination of both approaches. In this paper we investigate the ability of current three-dimensional models of mantle P-wave velocity to accurately locate teleseismic events. We test four recently published models; two are parameterized in terms of relatively long-wavelength spherical harmonic functions up to degree 12, and two are parameterized in terms of blocks of constant velocity which have a dimension of a few hundreds of km. These models, together with detailed crustal corrections, are used to locate a set of 112 global test events, consisting of both earthquakes and explosions with P-wave travel-time data compiled by the Internation al Seismological Centre (ISC). The results indicate that the supposedly higher resolution block models do not improve the accuracy of teleseismic event locations over the longer wavelength spherical harmonic models. For some source locations the block models do not predict the range of observed travel-time residuals as well as the longer wavelength models. The accuracy of the locations largely varies randomly with geographic position although events in central Asia are particularly well located. We also tested the effect of reduced data sets on the locations. Multiple location iterations using 30 P-wave travel times indicate that teleseismic events may be located within an area of 1000?km² of the true location 66% of the time with only the model-based corrections, and increasing to 75% if calibration information is available. If as few as 8 phases are available then this is possible only 50% of the time. Further refinement in models and/or procedure, such as the addition of P _n phases, azimuth data, and consideration of P-wave anisotropy may provide further improvement in the teleseismic location of small events.     

关于发展我国地下流体前兆流动观测问题的建议

介绍了地下流体前兆流动观测及其目的与意义、国内外地下流体前兆流动观测的历史与现状、我国目前存在的主要问题；针对现状与问题，提出了建议我国地下流体前兆流动观测系统的建议，其中包括指导思想、发展目标、观测网的类型与布设、观测点的建议、观测项目与观测仪器的选择、观测工作的组织与实施、观测数据的产出与共享等科学与技术问题。     

全球地震台网记录苏门答腊-安达曼地震的地幔波

介绍印度尼西亚苏门答腊-安达曼Ms8．7地震在全球地震台网（GSN）及所含“新一代中国数字地震台网”（NCDSN）记录的地幔面波。主要讨论本次大地震地幔瑞利波Ri,j（环球瑞利面波）无频散的3种可能原因,同时提出地幔妹泽波Mi,j的问题。     

Physically Consistent Responses of the Global Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Models and Observations

Robust and physically understandable responses of the global atmospheric water cycle to a warming climate are presented. By considering interannual responses to changes in surface temperature (T), observations and AMIP5 simulations agree on an increase in column integrated water vapor at the rate 7 %/K (in line with the Clausius–Clapeyron equation) and of precipitation at the rate 2–3 %/K (in line with energetic constraints). Using simple and complex climate models, we demonstrate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is currently suppressing global precipitation (P) at ～?0.15 %/decade. Along with natural variability, this can explain why observed trends in global P over the period 1988?2008 are close to zero. Regional responses in the global water cycle are strongly constrained by changes in moisture fluxes. Model simulations show an increased moisture flux into the tropical wet region at 900 hPa and an enhanced outflow (of smaller magnitude) at around 600 hPa with warming. Moisture transport explains an increase in P in the wet tropical regions and small or negative changes in the dry regions of the subtropics in CMIP5 simulations of a warming climate. For AMIP5 simulations and satellite observations, the heaviest 5-day rainfall totals increase in intensity at ～15 %/K over the ocean with reductions at all percentiles over land. The climate change response in CMIP5 simulations shows consistent increases in P over ocean and land for the highest intensities, close to the Clausius?Clapeyron scaling of 7 %/K, while P declines for the lowest percentiles, indicating that interannual variability over land may not be a good proxy for climate change. The local changes in precipitation and its extremes are highly dependent upon small shifts in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional feedbacks.     

Improvement of Global Hydrological Models Using GRACE Data

After about 6 years of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite mission operation, an unprecedented global data set on the spatio-temporal variations of the Earth’s water storage is available. The data allow for a better understanding of the water cycle at the global scale and for large river basins. This review summarizes the experiences that have been made when comparing GRACE data with simulation results of global hydrological models and it points out the prerequisites and perspectives for model improvements by combination with GRACE data. When evaluated qualitatively at the global scale, water storage variations on the continents from GRACE agreed reasonably well with model predictions in terms of their general seasonal dynamics and continental-scale spatial patterns. Differences in amplitudes and phases of water storage dynamics revealed in more detailed analyses were mainly attributed to deficiencies in the meteorological model forcing data, to missing water storage compartments in the model, but also to limitations and errors of the GRACE data. Studies that transformed previously identified model deficiencies into adequate modifications of the model structure or parameters are still rare. Prerequisites for a comprehensive improvement of large-scale hydrological models are in particular the consistency of GRACE observation and model variables in terms of filtering, reliable error estimates, and a full assessment of the water balance. Using improvements in GRACE processing techniques, complementary observation data, multi-model evaluations and advanced methods of multi-objective calibration and data assimilation, considerable progress in large-scale hydrological modelling by integration of GRACE data can be expected.     

Seismic Anisotropy in the Deep Mantle, Boundary Layers and the Geometry of Mantle Convection

—An attempt is made to explore the geodynamical significance of seismic anisotropy in the deep mantle on the basis of mineral physics. The mineral physics observations used include the effects of deformation mechanisms on lattice and shape preferred orientation, the effects of pressure on elastic anisotropy and the nature of lattice preferred orientation in deep mantle minerals in dislocation creep regime. Many of these issues are still poorly constrained, but a review of recent results shows that it is possible to interpret deep mantle seismic anisotropy in a unified fashion, based on the solid state processes without invoking partial melting. The key notions are (i) the likely regional variation in the magnitude of anisotropy as deformation mechanisms change from dislocation to diffusion creep (or superplasticity), associated with a change in the stress level and/or grain-size in the convecting mantle with a high Rayleigh number, and (ii) the change in elastic anisotropy with pressure in major mantle minerals, particularly in (Mg, Fe)O. The results provide the following constraints on the style of mantle convection (i) the SH > SV anisotropy in the bottom transition zone and the SV > SH anisotropy in the top lower mantle can be attributed to anisotropy structures (lattice preferred orientation and/or laminated structures) caused by the horizontal flow in this depth range, suggesting the presence of a mid-mantle boundary layer due to (partially) layered convection, (ii) the observed no significant seismic anisotropy in the deep mantle near subduction zones implies that deformation associated with subducting slabs is due mostly to diffusion creep (or superplasticity) and therefore slabs are weak in the deep mantle and hence easily deformed when encountered with resistance forces, and (iii) the SH > SV anisotropy in the cold thick portions of the D" layer is likely to be due to horizontally aligned shape preferred orientation in perovskite plus magnesiowüstite aggregates formed by strong horizontal shear motion in the recent past.     

20世纪90年代我国对地壳上地幔结构的人工地震探测研究

介绍了20世纪90年代我国人工地震探测在研究大震区和潜在震源区深部细结构，发震构造的深部特征、介质物性，地壳和上地幔结构与地球动力学过程，火山深部结构，油气生成的深部构造环境等方面取得的成果，以及人工地震资料解释中P波和S波的联合应用，浅层地震反射法在地壳浅层细结构、深浅构造关系研究方面取得的进展。     

Thermal Structure and Rheology of the Upper Mantle Derived from Mantle Xenoliths from Gansu Province, Western China

Mantle xenoliths brought up by Cenozoic volcanic rocks onto the earth‘s surface may provide direct information about the upper mantle beneath the volcanic region. This paper presents the study on mantle xenoliths collected from Haoti village, Dangchang County, Gansu Province, western China. The main purpose of the study is to gain an insight into the thermal structure and rbeology of the upper mantle beneath the region. The results show that the upper mantle of the region is composed mainly of spinel lherzolite at shallower depth (52-75km), and garnet iberzolite at greater depth (greater than 75km), instead of harzburgite and dunite as proposed by some previous studies. The upper mantle geotherm derived from the equilibrium temperatures and pressures of xenoliths from the region is lower than that of North China, and is somewhat closer to the Oceanic geotherm. The crust-mantle boundary is determined from the geotherm to be at about 52km, and the Moho seems to be the transition zone of lower crust material with spinel iberzolite. If we take 1280℃ as the temperature of the top of asthenosphere, then the fithospbere-asthenosphere boundary should be at about 120km depth. The differential stress of the upper mantle is determined by using recrystallized grain size piezometry, while the strain rate and equivalent viscosity are determined by using the high temperature flow law of peridotite. The differential stress, strain rate and viscosity profiles constructed on the basis of the obtained values indicate that asthenospberic diapir occurred in this region during the Cenozoic time, resulting in the corresponding thinning of the lithosphere. However, the scale and intensity of the diapir was significantly less than that occurring in the North China region. Moreover, numerous small-scale shear zones with localized deformation might occur in the iithospberic mantle, as evidenced by the extensive occurrence of xenoliths with tabular equigranular texture.     

Local Ionospheric Modeling Using the Localized Global Ionospheric Map and Terrestrial GPS

global ionosphere maps are generated on a daily basis at CODE using data from about 200 GPS/GLONASS sites of the IGS and other institutions. The vertical total electron content is modeled in a solargeomagnetic reference frame using a spherical harmonics expansion up to degree and order 15. The spherical Slepian basis is a set of bandlimited functions which have the majority of their energy concentrated by optimization inside an arbitrarily defined region, yet remain orthogonal within the spatial region of interest. Hence, they are suitable for decomposing the spherical harmonic models into the portions that have significant strength only in the selected areas. In this study, the converted spherical harmonics to the Slepian bases were updated by the terrestrial GPS observations by use of the least-squares estimation with weighted parameters for local ionospheric modeling. Validations show that the approach adopted in this study is highly capable of yielding reliable results.     

断层几何与前兆偏离

不同构造部位在变形中所起的作用不同,变形形式与异常类型也不相同。这种差异造成了地震前出现明显异常的地区与未来震中区偏离的现象我们称之为前兆偏离。作者利用最近一些数值模拟与物理模拟结果,揭示在一个区域变形过程中不同构造部位按其作用可把它们分为５种类型：制动单元（或闭锁单元）、错动单元、让位单元、敏感单元和阀单元。文中以５°的拐折断层为例说明不同构造条件下各种单元的空间分布,特别是敏感单元与发震的错动单元的相互关系。这些起着不同作用的构造单元有时可以相互重迭,有时可以相互偏离。当起不同作用的构造单元相互偏离时,就会出现前兆偏离现象。研究表明,不同断层几何下这些单元的空间布局不同,敏感区的位置和表现方式也不同。前兆往往出现在高应力的单元,而地震失稳则发生在易错动的单元。了解这种布局可能有助于我们布置观测台网,并在出现异常时帮助推断可能的发震位置     

Global Optimal Design of Ground Water Monitoring Network Using Embedded Kriging

We present a methodology for global optimal design of ground water quality monitoring networks using a linear mixed-integer formulation. The proposed methodology incorporates ordinary kriging (OK) within the decision model formulation for spatial estimation of contaminant concentration values. Different monitoring network design models incorporating concentration estimation error, variance estimation error, mass estimation error, error in locating plume centroid, and spatial coverage of the designed network are developed. A big-M technique is used for reformulating the monitoring network design model to a linear decision model while incorporating different objectives and OK equations. Global optimality of the solutions obtained for the monitoring network design can be ensured due to the linear mixed-integer programming formulations proposed. Performances of the proposed models are evaluated for both field and hypothetical illustrative systems. Evaluation results indicate that the proposed methodology performs satisfactorily. These performance evaluation results demonstrate the potential applicability of the proposed methodology for optimal ground water contaminant monitoring network design.     

Isostasy of the Eastern Anatolia (Turkey) and Discontinuities of its Crust

This paper presents a probable isostatic model of the East Anatolian Region, which lies in a belt of significant plate movements. Probable locations of the horizontal and vertical discontinuities in the crust structure were determined using the normalized full gradient (NFG) method. For the purpose of explaining the mechanism that supports topography corresponding to the crust thickness in the region, calculations of effective elastic thickness (T _e) were carried out initially by utilizing admittance and misfit functions. According to these results, the effective elastic thickness value obtained was less than the crust thickness, even though the isostatic model does not conform with the Airy model. Consequently, it was assumed that there could be problems beneath the crust. Hence, the NFG method was applied on the Bouguer gravity data of the region in order to investigate probable discontinuities in the crust structure. According to the NFG results, vertical structural transitions were observed at a depth ranging between 10 and 30 km, which begin immediately north of the Bitlis Zagros Suture Zone (BZSZ) and continue in a northerly direction. The relationship between the effective elastic thickness (T _e; 13 km in average as determined in the last stage), and the seismogenic zone in the region was investigated. If the T _e value happens to be less then the crustal thickness, then one can say that there are problems in the crustal structure of the region similar to Eastern Anatolia. Indeed, when NFG results of the study area are examined, numerous vertical and horizontal discontinuities in the crust can be observed. These discontinuities, which correspond to low Bouguer gravity anomalies and shallow focal depth-earthquakes, are probably the source of the factors which rule the tectonic mechanism of the region.     

我国地形变观测预报地震的现状及对地震预测问题的思考

本文展示了我国地形变观测的状况,讨论了以地形变观测预报地震的基本思路及应用情况,探讨了地震预测面临的困难及地形变观测须解决的技术问题。最后,作者认为,地震预报目前或今后很长一段时间都将是以观测为主的试验性科学,物理统计分析方法是研究地震孕育动力学过程或进行预测的最具有潜力的途径之一。     

金星的地幔对流、岩石圈演化和表面更新

金星在大小、轨道半径等方面与地球非常接近,但现今的观测显示金星在大气、表面温度、重力与地形特征等方面与地球非常不同.对固体金星而言,最显著特征是有火山活动但没有活动的板块构造运动、表面平均大约500±200 Ma的年龄显示金星发生过全球性表面快速更新、重力与地形强相关.本文在简要介绍已有工作的基础上,主要介绍我们基于这些观测特征开展的金星动力学研究,包括现今地幔的对流模式、相变对表面更新的影响、地壳厚度、岩石圈演化与表面更新等研究工作和取得的初步认识.

     

Global Optimisation of Time Domain Electromagnetic Data Using Very Fast Simulated Annealing

--Efficacy of the global optimisation technique is demonstrated in the inversion of time domain electromagnetic data. Transient EM responses observed using a coincident loops system along several profiles and different time channels over a plate like conducting body are inverted, using very fast simulated annealing (VFSA) as an optimisation tool. Three time channels for each profile are considered in the inversion. Study reveals that only one run of global inversion considering a single multi-channel profile is not enough to resolve all the nine model parameters of a plate-like conducting body. However, the global inversion of a single multi-channel profile with several runs yields a mean model that is quite close to the true model. Considering many profiles and time channels together in the global inversion can yield reliable estimates of all the parameters. Computationally, this is not an efficient procedure. Analysis of the results shows, however, that two distant profiles are enough to yield all the model parameters reliably, even after one run of the global inversion. Both noise-free and noisy synthetic data are used in the inversion. Finally, field data are also inverted to study the performance of the global inversion.     

Development of Local IDF-formula Using Controlled Random Search Method for Global Optimization

The aim of the study is to present the effective and relatively simple empirical approach to rainfall intensity-duration-frequency-formulas development, based on Controlled Random Search (CRS) for global optimization. The approach is mainly dedicated to the cases in which the commonly used IDF-relationships do not provide satisfactory fit between simulations and observations, and more complex formulas with higher number of parameters are advisable. Precipitation data from Gdańsk gauge station were analyzed as the example, with use of peak-overthreshold method and Chomicz scale for rainfall intensity. General forms of the IDF-function were chosen and the parameter calibration with use of CRS algorithm was developed. The compliance of the obtained IDFformulas with precipitation data and the efficiency of the algorithm were analyzed. The study confirmed the proposed empirical approach may be an interesting alternative for probabilistic ones, especially when IDFrelationship has more complex form and precipitation data do not match “typical” hydrological distributions.     

理解前兆异常变化机理和地震短临前兆

本文概要介绍了国内外近几年在地壳形变一地球自转日长变化十年尺度相关性、静寂地震、前驱波三方面的重要研究发现,并分析了这三项研究发现在地震前兆异常机理认识中的作用。初步分析表明：深部核幔耦合作用引起的地壳形变、地球物理场十年尺度波动,是数年至十年尺度地震场兆波动性变化的重要调制因素之一;源于断层脆韧转换带(过渡层)的静寂地震一慢地震缓慢破裂过程,是数天至数月尺度地震短期异常变化产生的重要原因;源于脆韧转换层上部或弹脆性层薄弱部分慢地震过程所辐射出来的低频前驱波(慢地震波),是目前已发现的可重复出现的短临前兆信号,具有数小时至7天左右的地震短临预报指标意义。