Perceptible earthquakes in the broad Aegean area

A probabilistic estimate of seismic hazard can be obtained from the spatial distribution, of earthquake sources, their frequency–magnitude distribution and the rate of attenuation of strong ground motion with distance. We calculate the earthquake perceptibility, i.e. the annual probability that a particular level of ground shaking will be generated by earthquakes of particular magnitude, by weighting frequency–magnitude data with the predicted felt area for a given level of ground shaking at a particular magnitude. This provides an earthquake selection criterion that can be used in the anti-seismic design of non-critical structures. We calculate the perceptibility, at a particular value of isoseismal intensity, peak ground acceleration and velocity, as a function of source magnitude and frequency for the broad Aegean area using local attenuation laws. We use frequency–magnitude distributions that were previously obtained by combining short-term catalogue data with tectonic moment rate data for 14 tectonic zones in Greece with sufficient earthquake data, and where contemporary strain rates are available from satellite data. Many of the zones show a ‘characteristic earthquake’ distribution with the most perceptible earthquake equal to the maximum magnitude earthquake, but a relatively flat perceptibility between magnitudes 6 and 7. The maximum perceptible magnitude is in the fastest-deforming region in the middle of the Aegean sea, and tends to be systematically low on the west in comparison to the east of the Aegean sea. The tectonic data strongly constrain the long-term recurrence rates and lead to low error estimates (±0.2) in the most perceptible magnitudes.     

地震成因软沉积物变形记录的地震强度研究进展

〗确定地震震级对中长期地震预报、震后应急救援和地震危险性评价具有重要意义。古地震学是研究地质记录中的地震事件,特别是它们的位置、时间和震级大小。然而,传统由地表破裂参数确定的古地震震级仍存在不确定性（大多数地震事件不会导致地表破裂,或位移小于0.3m）,尤其是由湖泊沉积记录的古地震事件。为了解决未发现明显位错地震震级问题,本文依据软沉积物变形构造的类型和形式,对确定地震震级/强度的方法（经验估算、最大液化距离、扰动层厚度、软沉积物变形类型,经验公式,快速沉积砂层厚度）进行总结和讨论,并分析其理论基础、优缺点、误差大小、适用性、存在问题等。并以中东死海盆地利桑组晚更新世湖相沉积中的震积岩(混杂层)和岷江上游萝卜寨晚第四纪湖相沉积中地震成因的液化底劈为例,利用上述6种方法推断,其代表的震级分别为M5.5~6.5和M6.0~7.0,进一步证实了前人的研究结果。这6种方法的结合,为确定地震震级/强度,特别是湖泊沉积中的地震事件提供了一种新的、相对便捷的方法。该研究可为基于地表破裂参数确定的古地震震级提供可靠的参考,为更好地认识构造活跃的地震活动性和危险性提供数据支持。     

地震成因软沉积物变形记录的地震强度研究进展

〗确定地震震级对中长期地震预报、震后应急救援和地震危险性评价具有重要意义。古地震学是研究地质记录中的地震事件,特别是它们的位置、时间和震级大小。然而,传统由地表破裂参数确定的古地震震级仍存在不确定性（大多数地震事件不会导致地表破裂,或位移小于0.3m）,尤其是由湖泊沉积记录的古地震事件。为了解决未发现明显位错地震震级问题,本文依据软沉积物变形构造的类型和形式,对确定地震震级/强度的方法（经验估算、最大液化距离、扰动层厚度、软沉积物变形类型,经验公式,快速沉积砂层厚度）进行总结和讨论,并分析其理论基础、优缺点、误差大小、适用性、存在问题等。并以中东死海盆地利桑组晚更新世湖相沉积中的震积岩(混杂层)和岷江上游萝卜寨晚第四纪湖相沉积中地震成因的液化底劈为例,利用上述6种方法推断,其代表的震级分别为M5.5~6.5和M6.0~7.0,进一步证实了前人的研究结果。这6种方法的结合,为确定地震震级/强度,特别是湖泊沉积中的地震事件提供了一种新的、相对便捷的方法。该研究可为基于地表破裂参数确定的古地震震级提供可靠的参考,为更好地认识构造活跃的地震活动性和危险性提供数据支持。     

基于强震台网观测的快速震灾评估系统的设想

通过实时地震观测数据获取能力和计算机性能的巨大提高 ,快速生成仪器观测的地面运动和地震动强度空间分布成为可能 ,利用这一成果结合地震灾害易损性研究成果和地震灾害评估模型 ,可以对破坏性地震造成的损失进行快速评估 ,为地震应急响应和决策指挥提供更可靠的信息支持。本文概述了利用强地面运动加速度观测资料进行地震灾害快速评估方法在国内外最新进展 ,提出了利用我省强震台网观测资料进行地震灾害快速评估的基本思路。     

Pathways to seismic hazard evaluation: Extreme and characteristic earthquakes in areas of low and high seismicity

The general philosophy of seismic hazard evaluation described here is appropriate for selection of seismic input to regional earthquake engineering codes prior to detailed on-site inspections and geotechnical assessments. Some probabilistic seismic hazard methodologies which can be applied in areas of low and high seismicity, are briefly described to emphasise the main equations with specimen results. Three aspects of hazard assessment are explored by different pathways. These include the analysis of regional earthquake catalogues to obtain magnitude recurrence, particularly using Gumbel extreme value statistics. This is extended to assess ground shaking hazard which is usually sought by earthquake engineers. Thirdly, the concept of earthquake perceptibility is developed, leading to the identification of an earthquake magnitude or type which is characteristic of a region. This most perceptible earthquake is most likely to be felt at any site in a region and provides an earthquake selection criterion which can be used in aseismic design of noncritical structures. Because there are several methods of seismic hazard evaluation, the view is expressed that it is sensible for practical purposes to seek results from different methods or different pathways to the hazard evaluation.Paper presented at the Commission of the European Communities' School on Earthquake Hazard Evaluation, Athens, and at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, held in Sofia, 1988.Now at School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, University Plain, Norwich NR4 7TJ, U.K.     

Stochastic seismic slope stability assessment using polynomial chaos expansions combined with relevance vector machine

This paper presents probabilistic assessment of seismically-induced slope displacements considering uncertainties of seismic ground motions and soil properties.A stochastic ground motion model representing both the temporal and spectral non-stationarity of earthquake shakings and a three-dimensional rotational failure mechanism are integrated to assess Newmark-type slope displacements.A new probabilistic approach that incorporates machine learning in metamodeling technique is proposed,by combining relevance vector machine with polynomial chaos expansions(RVM-PCE).Compared with other PCE methods,the proposed RVM-PCE is shown to be more effective in estimating failure probabilities.The sensitivity and relative influence of each random input parameter to the slope displacements are discussed.Finally,the fragility curves for slope displacements are established for sitespecific soil conditions and earthquake hazard levels.The results indicate that the slope displacement is more sensitive to the intensities and strong shaking durations of seismic ground motions than the frequency contents,and a critical Arias intensity that leads to the maximum annual failure probabilities can be identified by the proposed approach.     

2022年MS6.8级泸定地震诱发地质灾害特征与空间分布规律研究

2022年9月5日四川甘孜泸定县发生6.8级地震,诱发了大量地质灾害,造成房屋损毁和多处道路阻断,并导致了严重的人员伤亡。快速预测地震诱发地质灾害空间分布对震后应急救援至关重要。为此,成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室利用已建立的地震诱发滑坡近实时预测模型,在震后2 h内,快速预测了地震诱发滑坡空间分布概率。同时,利用震后重点区域的无人机影像和国产高分六号影像,对地震诱发滑坡进行了智能识别和人工解译及现场调查复核,共解译滑坡3633处,总面积13.78 km2。研究发现本次泸定地震诱发滑坡,较2008年汶川和2017年九寨沟地震滑坡,规模相对较小。本次地震诱发滑坡主要分布于鲜水河断裂带和大渡河两侧,呈带状分布,在磨西镇、得妥镇及王岗坪彝族藏族乡等Ⅸ度烈度区相对集中。对控制滑坡空间分布的地形地貌、地质和地震3类因素9个因子进行分析,发现其主要分布在坡度35°~55°、高程1000~1800 m范围内;受断层控制强烈,主要分布在距断层1 km范围内;在花岗岩中最为发育。上述研究成果获得的地震诱发滑坡及受损道路和房屋分布情况,为震后应急救援提供了重要支撑。     

地震作用下土钉支护边坡震后位移分析

基于土钉弹性支座假设,考虑了地震作用时边坡滑动体实时动态滑移对土钉受力的影响,结合拟静力极限平衡法推导了土钉受力实时动态变化与边坡震后位移计算表达式,提出了一种地震作用下土钉支护边坡震后位移计算的改进方法。结合算例分析表明,考虑与不考虑土钉受力实时动态变化的两种计算方法获得的边坡水平位移时程曲线规律基本一致,皆呈阶跃式增大趋势,但考虑土钉受力实时动态变化的改进计算方法得出的震后位移较不考虑的结果小,两种方法计算结果的差异随着土坡整体稳定性的提高而逐渐减小。结合相关文献中土钉支护边坡振动台试验数据,验证了改进方法的合理性。     

Earthquake shaking probabilities for communities on Vancouver Island,British Columbia,Canada

Comprehensive risk assessments are fundamental to effective emergency management. These assessments need to identify the range of hazards (or perils) an entity is exposed to and quantify the specific threats associated with each of those hazards. While hazard identification is commonly, if not formally, conducted in most circumstances, specific threat analysis is often overlooked for a variety of reasons, one of which is poor communication with subject matter experts. This poor communication is often attributable to an adherence to scientific jargon and missed opportunities to simplify information. In Canada, for example, earthquake hazard calculations have been readily available to engineers and scientists for decades. This hazard information, however, is expressed in terms of peak ground accelerations (PGA) or spectral accelerations (SA) that are foreign concepts to most emergency managers, community decision-makers and the public-at-large. There is, therefore, a need to more clearly, simply and effectively express seismic hazard information to the non-scientific community. This paper provides crustal, sub-crustal and subduction interface earthquake shaking probabilities, expressed as simple percentages for each of 57 locations across Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. Calculations present the likelihood of earthquake shaking on Vancouver Island as the probabilities of exceeding each of three shaking intensity thresholds (“widely felt”; onset of “non-structurally damaging” shaking; and onset of “structurally damaging” shaking) over four timeframes (10, 25, 50 and 100 years). Results are based on the latest Geological Survey of Canada hazard models used for the 2010 national building code and are presented in both tabular and graphic formats. This simplified earthquake hazard information is offered to aid local residents, organizations and governments in understanding and assessing their risk and to encourage and facilitate sound earthquake preparedness funding decisions.     

Microzonation of Zeytinburnu region with respect to soil amplification: A case study

A microzonation study is performed as a part of the Zeytinburnu Pilot Project within the framework of the Earthquake Master Plan for Istanbul to determine the effects of local soil conditions on the earthquake forces that will act on structures. For this purpose, detailed geological and geotechnical studies are conducted at the site, a geological map which demonstrates the local geological features of the site is prepared, and the site is classified with respect to the dynamic behaviour based on the data gathered from the soil borings. In order to investigate the effects of local soil conditions on the dynamic behaviour, site response analyses are performed with the computer code EERA by utilizing the findings of field and laboratory investigations. The behaviour of the region during a probable earthquake is investigated through one dimensional response analyses and microzonation maps are prepared with respect to ground shaking intensity in accordance with the new microzonation manual [Ansal, A., Laue, J., Buchheister, J., Erdik, M., Springman, S., Studer, J., and Koksal, D., 2004. “Site characterization and site amplification for a seismic microzonation study in Turkey” 11th Int. Conference on Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering and 3rd Earthquake Geotechnical Engineering, San Francisco; Studer, J. and Ansal, A., 2004. Belediyeler için Sismik Mikrobölgeleme El Kitabı, Araştırma Raporu, Afet İşleri Genel Müdürlüğü, Bayındırlık ve İskan Bakanlığı, Afet Risk Yönetimi Dünya Enstitüsü].     

Strong ground motion estimation in the Sea of Marmara region (Turkey) based on a scenario earthquake

We perform a broadband frequency bedrock strong ground motion simulation in the Marmara Sea region (Turkey), based on several fault rupture scenarios and a source asperity model. The technique combines a deterministic simulation of seismic wave propagation at low frequencies with a semi-stochastic procedure for the high frequencies. To model the high frequencies, we applied a frequency-dependent radiation pattern model, which efficiently removes the effective dependence of the pattern coefficient on the azimuth and take-off angle as the frequency increases. The earthquake scenarios considered consist of the rupture of the closest segments of the North Anatolian Fault System to the city of Istanbul. Our scenario earthquakes involve the rupture of the entire North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara, namely the combined rupture of the Central Marmara Fault and North Boundary Fault segments. We defined three fault rupture scenarios based on the location of the hypocenter, selecting a preferred hypocentral location near a fault bend for each case. We analysed the effect of location of the asperity, within the Central Marmara Fault, on the subsequent ground motion, as well as the influence of anelasticity on the high-frequency attenuation characteristics. The fault and asperity parameters for each scenario were determined from empirical scalings and from results of kinematic and dynamic models of fault rupture. We calculated the resulting time series and spectra for ground motion at Istanbul and evaluated the sensitivity of the predictions to choice of model parameters. The location of the hypocenter is thus shown to be a critical parameter for determining the worst scenario earthquake at Istanbul. We also found that anelasticity has a significant effect on the regional attenuation of peak ground accelerations. Our simulated ground motions result in large values of acceleration response spectra at long periods, which could be critical for building damage at Istanbul during an actual earthquake.     

Application of a modified pattern informatics method to forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes in the central Japan

We propose a modification of the Pattern Informatics (PI) method that has been developed for forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes. This forecast is based on analyzing the space–time patterns of past earthquakes to find possible locations where future large earthquakes are expected to occur. A characteristic of our modification is that the effect of errors in the locations of past earthquakes on the output forecast is reduced. We apply the modified and original methods to seismicity in the central part of Japan and compared the forecast performances. We also invoke the Relative Intensity (RI) of seismic activity and randomized catalogs to constitute null hypotheses. We do statistical tests using the Molchan and Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) diagrams and the log-likelihoods and show that the forecast for using the modified PI method is generally better than the competing original-PI forecast and the forecasts from the null hypotheses. Using the bootstrap technique with Monte-Carlo simulations, we further confirm that earthquake sequences simulated based on the modified-PI forecast can be statistically the same as the real earthquake sequence so that the forecast is acceptable. The main and innovative science in this paper is the modification of the PI method and the demonstration of its applicability, showing a considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting tool.     

Depth variation of seismic source scaling relations: implications for earthquake hazard in southeastern Australia

Advances in earthquake data acquisition and processing techniques have allowed for improved quantification of source parameters for local Australian earthquakes. Until recently, only hypocentral locations and local magnitudes (M_L) had been determined routinely, with little attention given to the inversion of additional source parameters. The present study uses these new source data (e.g. seismic moment, stress drop, source dimensions) to further extend our understanding of seismicity and the continental stress regime of the Australian landmass and its peripheral regions.

Earthquake activity within Australia is typically low, and the proportion of small to large events (i.e. the b value) is also low. It is observed that average stress drops for southeastern Australian earthquakes appear to increase with seismic moment to relatively high levels, up to approximately 10 MPa for M_L 5.0 earthquakes. This is thought to be indicative of high compressive crustal stress, coupled with strong rocks and fault asperities. Furthermore, the data indicates that shallow focus earthquakes (shallower than 6 km) appear to produce lower than average stress drops than deeper earthquakes (between 6 and 20 km) with similar moment.

Recurrence estimates were obtained for a discrete seismogenic zone in southeastern Australia. Decreasing b values with increasing focal depth for this zone indicate that larger earthquakes (with high stress drops) tend to occur deeper in the crust. This may offer an explanation for the apparent increase of stress drop with hypocentral depth. Consequently, earthquake hazard estimates that assume a uniform Gutenburg–Richter distribution with depth (i.e. constant b value) may be too conservative and therefore slightly overestimate seismic hazard for surface sites in southeastern Australia.     

A simplified approach for studying the influence of vertical accelerations on seismic response of slopes

ABSTRACT

A simplified approach is presented for estimating permanent displacements in slopes as a result of both vertical and horizontal seismic accelerations. A study of 52 earthquake records showed that the time difference between maximum horizontal and vertical accelerations varied between 0 and 10.3 s. The approach is illustrated for an earth dam embankment by analysing the effects of five of the above earthquake records. The approach combines a pseudo-static slope stability analysis for estimation of the critical (or yield) horizontal-vertical acceleration combinations, and a Newmark type displacement analysis. Guidelines are presented for conservative choice of soil strength parameters of saturated clays for use in the stability analysis. While permanent displacements of up to 40 cm were predicted without considering the vertical acceleration component, no additional displacement above 3.5 cm resulted when this component was included. The predicted additional displacement was consistently less than 10%, and in 50% of the analyses, vertical acceleration led to smaller predicted displacements. The simple approach may be applied in analysis for any slope using real earthquake records. Using existing, empirical expressions for permanent displacement, based only on horizontal accelerations, the effect of the vertical accelerations may be conservatively estimated by increasing the displacement by 10%.     

Seismicity, seismotectonics and seismic hazard of Italy

A first generation of probabilistic seismic hazard maps of the Italian country are presented. They are based on seismogenic zoning deriving from a kinematic model of the structural tectonic units and on an earthquake catalogue with the foreshock and aftershock events filtered out. The following ground motion parameters have been investigated and mapped using attenuation equations based on strong-motion recordings of Italian earthquakes: peak ground acceleration and velocity; Arias intensity; strong motion duration; and the pseudovelocity and pseudoacceleration spectral values at 14 fixed frequencies both for the vertical and the largest horizontal component. A Poissonian model of earthquake occurrence is assumed as a default and the hazard maps are presented in terms of ground motion values expected to be exceeded at a 10% probability level in 50 years (return period 475 years) according to the requirement of Eurocode 8 for the seismic classification of national territories, as well as in terms of exceedance probabilities of selected ground motion values. Finally, as a tentative study, the use of hybrid methods (implementing both seismogenic zones and structures), renewal processes (including earthquake forecasting) and the influence of site effects (as the basis for the planning of earthquake scenarios) were explored.     

Assessment of liquefaction and lateral spreading on the shore of Lake Sapanca during the Kocaeli (Turkey) earthquake

The 1999 Kocaeli earthquake of Turkey (M_w = 7.4) caused great destruction to buildings, bridges and other facilities, and a death tall of about 20,000. During this earthquake, severe damages due to soil liquefaction and associated ground deformations also occurred widespread in the eastern Marmara Region of Turkey. Soil liquefaction was commonly observed along the shorelines. One of these typical sites is Sapanca town founded on the shore of Lake Sapanca. This study was undertaken as quantitative measurement of ground deformations induced by liquefaction along the southern shore of Lake Sapanca. The permanent lateral ground deformation was measured through the aerial photogrammetry technique at several locations both along the shoreline and in the town. In situ soil profiles and material properties at Sapanca area were obtained based on the data from 55 borings and standard penetration tests (SPT), and laboratory tests, respectively. The data and the empirical methods recommended by an NCEER workshop were employed to evaluate the liquefaction resistance of the soils. In addition, simple shaking tests on a limited number of samples were also performed. The permanent ground displacements were estimated from the existing empirical models, sliding block method and residual visco-elastic finite element methods. Then these estimations were compared with the observed ground displacements. The assessments suggested that liquefaction at Sapanca have occurred within Quaternary alluvial fan deposits at depths 1 and 14 m, and the major regions of liquefaction and associated ground deformations were located along the shore and creeks. The evaluations also indicated that for sites with no sand boils but with ground displacement greater than 1 m, thickness of the non-liquefiable layer was large. It is also noted that no liquefaction-induced ground surface disruption is expected at the site when the thickness of the liquefiable and non-liquefiable layers vary between 0.5 and 1.5 m, and 3.5 and 5.5 m, respectively. Except one model, all the empirical models employed in the study over-predicted the observed lateral ground displacements, while sliding block method and residual visco-elastic finite element methods yielded reasonably good results if the known properties of liquefied soils are used.     

Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) Earthquake Behaviour Coding Methodology: analysis of Christchurch Public Hospital video data from the 22 February Christchurch earthquake event

Earthquake epidemiological research indicates that the behavioural response influences the nature and severity of injuries sustained. However, there is no observational evidence of the actions individuals engage in during and immediately following earthquake shaking, and the context in which earthquake injuries and deaths are caused. Closed Circuit Television Earthquake Behaviour Coding Methodology has been developed as a tool to classify human behaviour during and immediately following earthquake shaking using real event video data. The coding methodology was applied to security video data captured during the 22 February 2011 M_w6.3 ‘Christchurch’ earthquake event from the Christchurch Public Hospital which experienced shaking intensity of MM9 lasting approximately 12–15 s. We applied this coding methodology to determine: demography, trans-event behavioural responses, post-event behavioural responses, influence of social context on behaviour, and influence of behaviour on injuries. A total of 213 individuals from 31 different camera views were analysed. Sixty-six per cent of the individuals were adult-aged females. The primary trans-event responses were to hold (26%) onto furniture, walls, and/or other people close to them and to look around (30%). No individuals were observed to perform all ‘Drop, Cover, Hold’ actions, the recommended action during strong earthquake shaking in New Zealand. Post-event behaviour included: running, walking, providing assistance, moving towards others, visual communication, and some individuals gave instructions. Social contextual behaviour varied depending on the role of the adult. There were no serious injuries linked to behaviour. The results of this initial study indicate the coding methodology can record the distribution of and variation in human behaviours. Therefore, objective observation of earthquake video data can provide a useful quantitative measure of human behaviour. Significantly, the process will enable researchers to look more closely at behaviours, as well as the social and physical contexts associated with injury risk during and immediately following earthquake shaking.     

Seismic response of flexible cantilever retaining walls with dry backfill

Failure of retaining walls during earthquakes has occurred many times in the past. Although significant progress has been made in analysing the seismic response of rigid gravity type retaining walls, considerable difficulties still exist in the seismic-resistant design of the flexible cantilever type of retaining walls because of the complex nature of the dynamic soil–structure interaction. In this paper the seismic response of cantilever retaining walls with dry backfill is simulated using centrifuge modelling and numerical modelling. It is found that bending moments on the wall increased significantly during an earthquake. After the end of base shaking, the residual moment on the wall was significantly higher than the moment under static loading. The numerical simulation is able to model quite accurately the main characteristics of acceleration, bending moment, and displacement recorded in the centrifuge test.     

Response and Stability of Underground Structures in Rock Mass during Earthquakes

Underground structures are well known to be earthquake resistant. However, the recent earthquakes showed that underground structures are also vulnerable to seismic damage. There may be several reasons such as high ground motions and permanent ground movements. This study attempts to describe various forms of damage to underground structures such as tunnels, caverns, natural caves and abandoned mines during major earthquakes. Results of various model tests on shaking table are also presented to show the effect of ground shaking on the response and collapse of underground structures in continuum and discontinuum. Furthermore, some empirical equations are proposed to assess the damage to underground structures, which may be useful for quick assessments of possible damage.