长沙城市化进程对局地气候的影响

利用1961—2010年湖南省长沙及周边郊县共5个气象站的逐日气温、降水和相对湿度观测数据,在对各气象要素资料序列进行均一性检验和订正的基础上,以郊县站作为背景场,系统地分析了长沙城市化不同阶段对城市气候的影响。结果表明:受城市化的影响,近50年长沙市区地面气温及其上升速率远高于郊县的,城市热岛效应明显,热岛效应对市区年平均气温的增温贡献率达30%,且主要出现在20世纪90年代之后,四季中城市化贡献率的最大值出现在夏季,秋季和春季的次之,冬季的最小。50年来长沙市区和郊县年降水量差值序列呈显著增加趋势,长沙城市雨岛效应较为显著,且主要发生在春季和夏季,城市化带来的雨岛效应加速了长沙降水结构两极分化,使城市内涝发生的概率进一步增大。50年来长沙市区和郊县年平均相对湿度及其差值的变化趋势均不显著,就全年平均而言,长沙的城市干岛效应并不明显,但近20年来干岛效应显著增强;分季节来看,近50年干岛效应主要发生在夏季。     

乌鲁木齐-昌吉地区城市化对温度的影响及热岛效应分析

利用乌鲁木齐-昌吉地区3个城市气象站和3个郊区气象站1976-2008年的气温观测资料,分析了乌鲁木齐及周边城市发展的热岛效应。结果表明,33年来乌鲁木齐-昌吉地区城市化对城市地面平均气温具有显著影响,气温随年代递增率城市大于农村,城市和郊区年平均气温递增率分别为0.79和0.38℃.(10a)-1;城市气温的极端性趋于弱化,近33年地面气温递增的最主要表现是城市平均最低气温明显上升,城市和郊区年平均最低气温的递增率分别为1.12和0.41℃.(10a)-1;城市气温日较差呈明显的下降趋势,郊区却略呈上升趋势;城市寒冷日数减少的趋势大于农村,城市采暖季最低气温随年代的递增趋势最为显著,采暖季城市和农村平均最低气温的递增率分别是1.46和0.57℃.(10a)-1;年平均热岛强度递增率为0.71℃.(10a)-1,冬季为1.06℃.(10a)-1,秋、春和夏季分别为0.63,0.57和0.46℃.(10a)-1。热岛强度夜间强、白天弱,02:00,08:00,14:00和20:00的平均热岛强度分别为2.9,2.9,0.0和3.0℃,其中02:00和08:00热岛强度递增率分别是1.17和1.13℃.(10a)-1,20:00为0.70℃.(10a)-1,冬季没有逆温的状况下,市区高温区与繁华区相吻合,城区中心的温度比郊区高3~4℃。     

苏州城市化进程与城市气候变化关系研究

利用1970—2007年苏州城市及近郊县(市)气象站观测资料,结合Landsat 5卫星反演资料,统计分析城市化进程,对苏州区域气候变化的影响。分析结果表明:从1990s中后期开始,随着经济发展,苏州城市建设速度明显加快,城市化进程对苏州气候影响明显,城、郊气温均有明显的上升趋势,相对湿度呈现下降趋势,降水量整体上呈现上升的趋势,日照时数有明显的下降的趋势;苏州城市热岛效应显现、城市霾出现、太湖蓝藻爆发、极端气候事件增多,也与快速的城市化进程有着一定的关系。     

城市化对局地气候的影响分析

选取位于中等城市城区的湖南省常德气象观测站地面气象观测资料和位于小城市城郊的湖南省临澧气象局地面气象观测资料,利用统计方法,对比分析了各气候要素的变化态势。结果表明：常德站和临澧站在气候变暖大背景下,平均气温和最低气温呈线性递增趋势,相对湿度呈线性递减趋势,且递增（减）幅度常德站大于临澧站。常德城市人口大幅度增加年的前后,气候要素变化存在明显的突变,且以气温、湿度最为剧烈,显现出明显的热岛、干岛效应。针对显现出的城市发展对局地气候的影响,提出了减缓城市化影响的初步建议。     

城市化对局地气候的影响分析

选取位于中等城市城区的湖南省常德气象观测站地面气象观测资料和位于小城市城郊的湖南省临澧气象局地面气象观测资料,利用统计方法,对比分析了各气候要素的变化态势。结果表明：常德站和临澧站在气候变暖大背景下,平均气温和最低气温呈线性递增趋势,相对湿度呈线性递减趋势,且递增（减）幅度常德站大于临澧站。常德城市人口大幅度增加年的前后,气候要素变化存在明显的突变,且以气温、湿度最为剧烈,显现出明显的热岛、干岛效应。针对显现出的城市发展对局地气候的影响,提出了减缓城市化影响的初步建议。     

基于OMR方法的城市化进程对辽宁省气温变化的影响分析

利用1961—2018年辽宁省61个国家级气象站逐日平均、最高、最低气温观测资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,定量分析了城市化对辽宁省气温变化的影响。结果表明：辽宁省气温呈显著增加趋势,观测资料的增温趋势较再分析资料明显;逐日平均、最高、最低气温均表现出冬季增温速率最快,春季、秋季次之,夏季增温速率最慢;在城市化影响贡献率上,秋季最大,夏季和春季次之,冬季相对较小;空间分布上,辽宁省绝大部分地区城市化影响呈上升趋势,呈现出中部大于外围,东部大于西部,南部大于北部的分布形势,城镇化发展水平越高的地区,观测与再分析方法的差值增加趋势越明显;平均气温、最高、最低气温的城市化影响分别是0.13℃/10 a、0.045℃/10 a、0.216℃/10 a,城市化影响贡献率分别为38.5%、19.5%、43.4%,说明快速的城市化进程是导致辽宁省气温增暖的重要因素。     

乌鲁木齐河源地气候与冰川变化特征及其对径流的影响

根据位于乌鲁木齐河源地大西沟气象站４０年（１９５８－１９９８年）气候资料,分析了温度、降水量分布规律与冰川变化特征,得出气候、冰川的变化对径流量影响的几点结论。表明,在全球性气候变暖背景下,中天山高山区呈变暖,自然降水（雪）资源增多,冰川资源减少趋势;继续发展,将会严重影响冰川的调节功能。     

兰州城市化发展对局地气候的影响

研究了兰州气候变化特征及其城市化发展对局地气候的影响，发现８０年代之后，兰州平均温度相对于６０－７０年代平均气温的上升幅度是全省平均气温上升幅度的近４倍，其他要素的年、季变化均表出明显的特征。     

成都城市化发展对局地气候的影响

为研究成都地区城市化对局地气候的影响,利用新一代中尺度数值模式WRF,将不同时期下垫面土地利用类型作为控制试验和敏感试验的模拟条件,探讨了下垫面改变对成都市夏季和冬季城市化效应的影响。结果表明：城市下垫面对夏季中心城区的地表气温升高有显著影响,敏感性试验表明,下垫面的改变引起成都地区夏季28℃以上的高温区域扩大并向东北和西南扩张,且城区的外扩导致周边区域地表气温升高。冬季成都地区常为多云天气,能到达地面的太阳辐射较夏季大大减小,城市化导致的升温作用没有夏季显著。城市化作用使城市上风区降水量以减少为主,下风区降水量以增多为主,城市化使得发生强降水的概率增加,并且强降水在空间分布上更集中在城市下风区。     

下垫面改变导致局地气候变化的理论分析

运用气柱内辐射，相变，对流间的平衡及地表能量平衡条件研究了由于地表状况改变，即植被退化所造成的局地气候变化，结果表明地表反射率的加大及地面热通量的变化造成中国北方降水量的减少和温度的增加。粗糙度的减少也能造成降水量减少和温度增加，这些结果与数值模拟一致。考虑平流作用以后，上述特征不变，但降水及温度改变量发生变化。在全球增暖背景下，降水减少和温度增加要更剧烈些。     

Contesting climate justice in the city: Examining politics and practice in urban climate change experiments

Debates about climate justice have mainly occurred at the international scale, and have focussed on the rights and responsibilities of nation-states to either be protected from the effects of climate change, or to take action to reduce emissions or support adaptation. In this paper, we argue that it is both productive and necessary to examine how climate justice is being pursued at the urban scale, which brings into focus the need for attention to issues of recognition as well as rights and responsibilities. Building on work from environmental justice, which has conceptualized justice as trivalent, we propose that climate justice can be understood as a pyramid, the faces of which are distributions, procedures, rights, responsibilities and recognition. We then apply this conceptual framework to examine climate change interventions in five cities; Bangalore, Monterrey, Hong Kong, Philadelphia and Berlin. Arguing that the politics and practices of urban climate change interventions are constantly engaging with and refracting the idea of justice, we examine how justice was articulated, practiced and contested across our cases. The perspective of recognition emerges as a particularly useful entry point through which to explore the types of rights, responsibilities, distributions and procedures required to respond justly to climate change. We conclude by reflecting on our framework, arguing that it is useful both as an analytical device to interrogate climate justice and to shape the design of climate change interventions which seek to ensure climate justice.     

中国三大城市带城市化气候效应的检测与对比

利用国家基本、基准站1951—2009的逐日气候数据和1986—2008的城市人口资料,建立了一种新的城市化指标,分析了京津冀城市带、长江三角洲城市带和珠江三角洲城市带中典型城市及区域整体的城市化特征,对三个城市群区的城市气候特征和气候效应进行了比较。结果表明：城市化使典型城市的平均气温和最低气温显著升高,城市化气候效应特征可以分为“冷季型”、“暖季型”和“过渡季节型”三种类型。长三角地区的城市化气候效应最强,京津冀次之,珠三角最弱。长三角地区与京津冀地区城市化气候效应的共同点为平均气温和夜间气温升高,春、秋两季增温显著;不同点是长三角夏季强于冬季,最高气温明显升高,京津冀冬季强于夏季,最高气温无明显变化。城市化对降水的影响在三个城市群区有着不同的特点,主要体现在极端强降水事件上。     

Learning and climate change

Abstract

Learning—i.e. the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty—plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations of how learning affects the optimal timing of emissions reductions, analyses of how new information could affect the prospects for reaching and maintaining political agreements and for adapting to climate change, and explorations of how learning could lead us astray rather than closer to the truth. Despite the diversity of this new work, a clear consensus on a central point is that the prospect of learning does not support the postponement of emissions reductions today.     

Politics eclipses climate extremes for climate change perceptions

Whether or not actual shifts in climate influence public perceptions of climate change remains an open question, one with important implications for societal response to climate change. We use the most comprehensive public opinion survey data on climate change available for the US to examine effects of annual and seasonal climate variation. Our results show that political orientation has the most important effect in shaping public perceptions about the timing and seriousness of climate change. Objective climatic conditions do not influence Americans’ perceptions of the timing of climate change and only have a negligible effect on perceptions about the seriousness of climate change. These results suggest that further changes in climatic conditions are unlikely to produce noticeable shifts in Americans’ climate change perceptions.     

企业气候变化意识及应对措施调查研究

基于2012—2015年在华北、珠三角和湖南湖北地区对企业管理人员进行的气候变化意识的问卷调查,构建了气候变化意识和企业应对气候变化措施两个一级指数。通过对调查结果交叉列联表分析,得出以下结论：企业管理人员的气候变化意识指数处于一般水平,并且受年龄、产业类型、企业类型的影响显著;企业应对气候变化措施指数也处于一般水平且不同企业水平差距较大,企业管理人员气候变化意识水平、未来预期和自主知识产权拥有量对其影响显著。     

长三角城市群下垫面变化气候效应的模拟研究

利用法国动力气象实验室发展的高分辨可变网格大气环流模式LMDZ,分别通过LMDZ的高分辨可变网格区域版及其全球版模式的数值模拟,研究长三角城市群下垫面变化带来的夏季气候效应,并尝试探讨大尺度环流的响应.其中LMDZ高分辨区域模式的模拟结果表明长三角城市群下垫面变化可导致夏季长三角地区接受的净辐射明显增加,感热通量上升,潜热通量下降,引起局地地表温度显著上升.同时西太平洋副热带高压西伸北抬控制长三角地区,反气旋性水汽通量异常,导致该地区降水异常减少.进一步对LMDZ全球模式的模拟结果分析,发现长三角城市群下垫面变化可能会引起大气基本模态的变化,进而引起南北半球中高纬异常波列结构的出现.     

Constructing legitimacy for climate change planning: A study of local government in Denmark

Existing research on climate change planning has tended to adopt an overly simplistic approach to analyzing how agency and structure mediate local governments’ responses to climate change. This research contributes to scientific capacity to predict and explain patterns of climate change planning by focusing on the concept of legitimacy and examining its influence upon the dialectic between structure and agency. A conceptual framework foregrounding legitimacy is developed based upon new institutional theory. An initiative to institutionalize climate change planning in Aarhus Municipality, Denmark, is used as a case study to validate four propositions derived from existing research but filtered through the conceptual framework. Validation of the propositions evidences a hierarchy in the salience of different forms of legitimacy, with moral and ethical arguments for undertaking climate change planning having limited social traction in Denmark in the absence of significant extreme climatic events. The analysis also generates thicker, more nuanced explanations for real-world patterns of climate change planning. The findings thereby provide a corrective to a number of assertions made in the literature, notably in relation to the role of agency in the institutionalization of climate change planning.