海口湾海洋水动力自然灾害评估分析

开展海洋水动力自然灾害评价分析是涉海工程海洋灾害风险评估的重要组成部分,其重在水动力风险因素的识别与风险强度的预估,是有效提高灾害防御能力、控制风险和减少灾害损失的关键技术方法之一。海口湾水域位于海南岛北岸,琼州海峡内、濒临南海,由于其特殊地理位置,对海口湾水域影响最为显著的海洋动力灾害主要包括:风暴潮、海浪和海啸。本文针对上述问题,基于数值模拟方法以及实测数据统计和经验分析等方法,研究确定了该海域所面临的上述各风险因素的成因,并确定了其对应强度大小和危害破坏情况,给出了极端条件下的数值结果,为相关工程的海域使用论证提供参考依据。其中,风暴潮增水主要基于实测台风资料通过随机统计与水动力模型相结合的方法,推求出重现期为50、100以及500a的极端高水位值。极端大浪主要基于30a的台风过程与疾风资料,结合后报风场数据,采用SWAN模拟海域波浪场,分别计算给出重现期100、50a波浪要素,并验证了海域内人工岛护面稳定性情况。海啸波主要依托Nguyenetal(2014)在USGS震源参数基础上导出的震源参数,采用浅水波模型分别对7.0和8.0级地震形成的海啸进行数值模拟,估算对海口湾水域影响情况,还考虑了整个断裂带发生破裂形成的特大地震(9.3级)海啸时极端情况。     

Simulation of Seawater Intrusion Range in Coastal Aquifer Using the FEMWATER Model for Disaster Information

The FEMWATER model is a three-dimensional finite element model that can simulate both groundwater flow and mass transport at the same time, and so by using this FEMWATER model seawater intrusion was simulated and the results were compared to observation data. By using the observation data, a conceptual model was made of 3 layers based on the type of soil, and the hydrogeological parameter was selected. There are two types of dispersivities: longitudinal dispersivity and transverse dispersivity. Longitudinal dispersivity was calculated by Xu and Eckstein's method (1995 Xu , M. and Y. Eckstein . 1995 . Use of weighted least-squares method in evaluation of the relationship between dispersivity and field scale . Ground Water 33 ( 6 ): 905 – 908 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and the transverse dispersivity was put at 3/10 of the longitudinal dispersivity for the simulation. The electrical conductivity suggested by Freeze and Cherry (1979 Freeze , R. A. and J. A. Cherry , J. A. 1979 . Groundwater . Eaglewood Cliffs , NJ : Prentice-Hall . [Google Scholar]) and the correlation with total dissolved solids, TDS, was used to classify the state of the water. Upon analyzing the depths at 15 m, 30 m, 60 m, and 90 m, occurrence of seawater intrusion near the ground surface was limited to the vicinity of the coastline, but as the depths became deeper, seawater intrusion expanded inland. From these results we can come to the conclusion that in order to prevent seawater intrusion there needs to be sufficient preliminary examination.     

Numerical Simulation of Extreme Sea Levels Using Location Specific High Resolution Model for Gujarat Coast of India

Although the frequency of tropical cyclones is less in the Arabian sea compared to that of the Bay of Bengal, there are several severe tropical cyclones which caused extensive damage along the Gujarat coast. In view of the high tidal range in the funnel-shaped gulfs of the Khambhat and the Kachch, it is very useful to study the surge response in these regions. There is always a possibility of abnormal rise of sea level when the occurrence of surge coincides with high tide, which may eventually cause inundation of vast stretches of shallow coastal areas. In view of this, a location specific fine resolution model is developed for the Gujarat coast. The east-west and north-south grid distances for the model are 5.1 km and 5.2 km, respectively. Several numerical experiments are carried out to compute the extreme sea levels using the wind stress forcings representative of 1982, 1996, and 1998 cyclones, which crossed this region. The model-computed extreme sea levels are in good agreement with the available observations.     

Simulation of Formation and Spreading of Salinity Minimum Associated with NPIW Using a High-Resolution Model

A series of numerical experiments were conducted with a high-resolution (eddy-permitting) North Pacific model to simulate the formation and spreading of the salinity minimum associated with the North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW). It was found that two factors are required to simulate a realistic configuration of the salinity minimum: a realistic wind stress field and small-scale disturbances. The NCEP reanalyzed wind stress data lead to better results than the Hellerman and Rosenstein wind stress data, due to the closer location of the simulated Oyashio and Kuroshio at the western boundary. Small-scale disturbances formed by relaxing computational diffusivity included in the advection scheme promote the large-scale isopycnal mixing between the Oyashio and Kuroshio waters, simulating a realistic configuration of the salinity minimum. A detailed analysis of the Oyashio water transport was carried out on the final three-year data of the experiment with reduced computational diffusivity. Simulated transport of the Kuroshio Extension in the intermediate layer is generally smaller than the observed value, while those of the Oyashio and the flow at the subarctic front are comparable to the observed levels. In the Oyashio-Kuroshio interfrontal zone the zonally integrated southward transport of the Oyashio water (140-155°E) is borne by the eddy activity, though the time-mean flow reveals the existence of a coastal Oyashio intrusion. In the eastern part (155°E-180°) the zonally integrated transport of the Oyashio water indicates a southward peak at the southern edge of the Kuroshio Extension, which corresponds to the branching of the recirculating flow from the Kuroshio Extension.     

Simulation of Formation and Spreading of Salinity Minimum Associated with NPIW Using a High-Resolution Model

A series of numerical experiments were conducted with a high-resolution (eddy-permitting) North Pacific model to simulate the formation and spreading of the salinity minimum associated with the North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW). It was found that two factors are required to simulate a realistic configuration of the salinity minimum: a realistic wind stress field and small-scale disturbances. The NCEP reanalyzed wind stress data lead to better results than the Hellerman and Rosenstein wind stress data, due to the closer location of the simulated Oyashio and Kuroshio at the western boundary. Small-scale disturbances formed by relaxing computational diffusivity included in the advection scheme promote the large-scale isopycnal mixing between the Oyashio and Kuroshio waters, simulating a realistic configuration of the salinity minimum. A detailed analysis of the Oyashio water transport was carried out on the final three-year data of the experiment with reduced computational diffusivity. Simulated transport of the Kuroshio Extension in the intermediate layer is generally smaller than the observed value, while those of the Oyashio and the flow at the subarctic front are comparable to the observed levels. In the Oyashio-Kuroshio interfrontal zone the zonally integrated southward transport of the Oyashio water (140–155°E) is borne by the eddy activity, though the time-mean flow reveals the existence of a coastal Oyashio intrusion. In the eastern part (155°E–180°) the zonally integrated transport of the Oyashio water indicates a southward peak at the southern edge of the Kuroshio Extension, which corresponds to the branching of the recirculating flow from the Kuroshio Extension. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

青岛地区海雾分布特征及风险评估

通过1978—2007年30年的气候资料,分析了青岛地区海雾发生的时间和空间分布特征。基于海雾是对青岛地区城市建设和社会经济活动影响较大的气象灾害,结合1984—2007年的雾灾情普查资料,采用灾害学风险评估的指标加权综合模型,用地理信息系统技术(GIS)开展了海雾气象风险评估。结果显示,青岛沿海地区是海雾的高发区,6、7月是海雾发生的高频时期,海雾灾害高风险集中在青岛市市南区、市北区、四方区的西南部和黄岛区东部沿海一带。     

HYCOM模式对赤道及北太平洋海表温度的模拟

根据2种海气通量数据集(COADS、ECMWF)和2种海气通量块体参数化方案(常数块体参数化方案和非常数块体参数化方案)的不同结合,构成4组数值实验,使用HYCOM数值模式分别模拟了赤道及北太平洋的气候态海表温度。实验结果表明:(1)非常数块体参数化方案优于常数块体参数化方案;在太平洋40°N～20°S区域内,采用前者得到的年平均海表温度比Pathfinder卫星资料高约0.21℃,而采用后者得到的年平均海表温度比Path-finder卫星资料高约0.63℃。(2)HYCOM数值模式很好地模拟了赤道及北太平洋的气候态海表温度变化及西太平洋暖池空间分布的月变化。特别是实验2(采用COADS数据集和非常数块体参数化方案),在太平洋40°N～20°S区域内,冬、春两季平均SST仅比Pathfinder卫星数据集高0.02℃。(3)不同海气通量数据会对模拟结果产生明显影响。对比采用COADS数据集的实验2结果与采用ECMWF数据集的实验4结果可以发现,在模拟区域的西北部,实验2比实验4的年平均SST高约1℃;在模拟区域的东南部,实验4比实验2的年平均SST高约1℃。两者差的最大值出现在58°N、140°E附近及中国渤海,实验2比实验4的年平均SST高约4℃。     

A two-dimensional finite volume hydrodynamic model for coastal areas: Model development and validation

A two dimensional implicit finite volume scheme for solving the shallow-water equations is developed. The effects of the Coriolis force, surface wind stress, and waves are included. A non-uniform rectilinear forward staggered grid is used with Cartesian coordinates. The time integration is performed using the Euler implicit technique. The convective flux is treated using the deferred correction method. The viscous terms are discretized using a second order central difference approximation. The SIMPLE (Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure-Linked Equations) algorithm is used for coupling the velocity components and the water elevation gradient for the water level correction. The system of equations is solved sequentially using the Strongly Implicit Procedure (SIP). To simulate wave driven current, a phase averaged wave model is used first to simulate wave transformation and calculate radiation stresses. The performance of the developed model is validated for different sources of external forces and different combinations of boundary conditions. The validation cases include tidal circulation in a harbor and wave induced currents behind a breakwater parallel to the coastline. The model is finally applied to simulate the flow pattern in a closed artificial lagoon and along the coastline near Damietta Port located along the Northern coast of Egypt. Results of the developed model agree well with the published results for the considered cases.     

Wave run-up on slender piles in design conditions — Model tests and design rules for offshore wind

Wave run-up on foundations is a very important factor in the design of entrance platforms for offshore wind turbines. When the Horns Reef 1 wind turbine park in Denmark was designed the vertical wave run-up phenomenon was not well known in the industry, hence not sufficiently considered in the design of Horns Reef 1. As a consequence damage was observed on the platforms. This has been the situation for several sites and design tools for platform loads are lacking. As a consequence a physical model test study was initiated at Aalborg University to clarify wave run-up on cylindrical piles for different values of diameter to water depth ratios (D/h) and different wave heights to water depth ratios (H/h) for both regular and irregular waves. A calculation model is calibrated based on stream function theory for crest kinematics and velocity head stagnation theory. Due to increased velocities close to the pile an empirical factor is included on the velocity head. The evaluation of the calculation model shows that an accurate design rule can be established even in breaking wave conditions. However, calibration of a load model showed that it was necessary to increase the run-up factor on the velocity head by 40% to take into account the underestimation of run-up for breaking or nearly breaking waves given that they produce thin run-up wedges and air entrainment, two factors not coped with by the measurement system.     

Model Simplification and Parameter Modification for Offshore Platforms Using Experiment Data

- In this paper, a computation method has been developed so as to compare the finite element method (FEM) with the test results directly. The structure is divided into the "master" and "slave" degrees of freedom. The simplified model can be obtained with modal reduction. Then the design sensitivity analysis of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors has been carried out using the modal frequency and modal shape of the test. A two-story frame structure and a jacket model structure have been calculated. Meanwhile, the modified coefficient, the FEM computational and experimental values have been given. It has been shown that the FEM model modified using the test modal value is efficient.