布加勒斯特国家地球物理研究和发展研究所:25年的历史回顾

罗马尼亚国家地球物理研究和发展研究所 (NIEP)成立于 1 977年 2月 ,负责协调与罗马尼亚的地震有关的研究工作。NIEP隶属于罗马尼亚教育与研究部。NIEP的主要任务是在罗马尼亚开展地震监测和管理国家地震台网。NIEP开展广泛的地球科学基础研究工作 ,包括震源和地震构造学研究、地震灾害评估、场地效应和小区划、岩石圈结构和动力学研究、地震预报、地震危险性评估和减灾研究。NIEP在支持全面禁止核试验条约 (CTBT)方面 ,确保罗马尼亚的技术服务于全球的地震监测。根据其工作任务 ,NIEP的主要目标是 :发展先进的地震数据收集和管…     

Anisotropy and depth‐related heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity in a bog peat. II: modelling the effects on groundwater flow

Anisotropy and heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity (K) are seldom considered in models of mire hydrology. We investigated the effect of anisotropy and heterogeneity on groundwater flow in bog peat using a steady‐state groundwater model. In five model simulations, four sets of K data were used. The first set comprised measured K values from an anisotropic and heterogeneous bog peat. These data were aggregated to produce the following simplified data sets: an isotropic and heterogeneous distribution of K; an isotropic and homogeneous distribution; and an anisotropic and homogeneous distribution. We demonstrate that, where anisotropy and heterogeneity exist, groundwater flow in bog peat is complex. Fine‐scale variations in K have the potential to influence patterns and rates of groundwater flow. However, for our data at least, it is heterogeneity and not anisotropy that has the greater influence on producing complex patterns of groundwater flow. We also demonstrate that patterns and rates of groundwater flow are simplified and reduced when measured K values are aggregated to create a more uniform distribution of K. For example, when measured K values are aggregated to produce isotropy and homogeneity, the rate of modelled seepage is reduced by 28%. We also show that when measured K values are used, the presence of a drainage ditch can increase seepage through a modelled cross‐section. Our work has implications for the accurate interpretation of hydraulic head data obtained from peat soils, and also the understanding of the effect of drainage ditches on patterns and rates of groundwater flow. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

关于“可操作性地震预报:有关‘为什么’和‘怎么办’的几点思考”的另一种见解

2009年4月6日,意大利拉奎拉（L’Aquila）发生Mw6．3地震,造成意大利中部308人死亡。地震后,意大利政府召集了一次国际地震预报委员会（ICEF）会议。在近期出版的《地震研究快报》（Seismological Research Letters）“见解”栏目中,     

Mechanistic interpretation of Alpine glacierized environments: Part 2. Hydrologic interpretation and model parameters identification on case study

The differential model MIAGE (see “Mechanistic Interpretation of Alpine Glacierized Environments: Part 1. Model formulation and related dynamical properties” by Perona and Burlando, this issue) is analyzed in this work with the purpose of: (i) showing the model equivalence to a nonlinear reservoir system; (ii) identifying and correlating the model’s coefficients to the hydrogeomorphological properties of a number of different Alpine basins; (iii) testing the model performances to assess the potential impact of climatic change on the hydrologic dynamics of the basins being studied. The study catchments have different topographic, morphologic and hydrologic characteristics, range in size from 4 to 3300 km² and are 2–32% glacierized. For each basin, the model coefficients are obtained by applying a system identification technique to the mean seasonal basin behaviour. It is shown that the coefficients vary in a reasonable way according to hydrogeomorphological basin characteristics. Model coefficients provide insight into the basin drainage time, and the time dependent damping and elastic properties of the system. Despite its simplicity and in the limit of the model capabilities, results for changing climatic scenarios are also in good qualitative agreement with other well tested modelling approaches. In summary, MIAGE offers an interesting minimalist approach to shed light on the dynamics of glacierized Alpine catchments.     

岩石水压致裂和诱发地震的实验研究

用7种岩石各制备了几类不同预裂纹的系列试件，并在不同围压下进行水压致裂强度实验。结合典型的水库诱发地震的实际资料和现今构造应力场的实验结果，以及应用岩石强度理论和岩石断裂力学的一些原理、方法，进行岩石孔隙水压诱发地震的探讨。初步结果为：(1)若岩体内构造应力很小，一定大小的孔隙水压力σp，可直接使岩体内的薄弱面致裂并发生小地震。(2)若构造应力较大，存在两类诱发地震的可能：①对岩体浅部一些走向与构造应力的主压应力σ1方向相近的薄弱面，σp可促使其发生张性破裂并诱发小地震。②当构造应力接近于断裂的抗剪强度时，因σp，降低了断裂面上的正应力σn，使原处于稳定状态的断裂失稳，发生滑移破裂并诱发出地震。σp导致断裂的破裂深度增大，使诱发地震的震级大于原潜在的地震震级。(3)各种岩体均存在着一个极限深度，此深度后不再有诱发地震。     

Effects of initial soil water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity variability on small watershed runoff simulation using LISEM

Abstract

Soil water content (θ) and saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s) vary in space. The objective of this study was to examine the effects of initial soil water content (θ_i) and K_s variability on runoff simulations using the LImburg Soil Erosion Model (LISEM) in a small watershed in the Chinese Loess Plateau, based on model parameters derived from intensive measurements. The results showed that the total discharge (TD) and peak discharge (PD) were underestimated when the variability of θ_i and K_s was partially considered or completely ignored compared with those when the variability was fully considered. Time to peak (TP) was less affected by the spatial variability compared to TD and PD. Except for TP in some cases, significant differences were found in all hydrological variables (TD, PD and TP) between the cases in which spatial variability of θ_i or K_s was fully considered and those in which spatial variability was partially considered or completely ignored. Furthermore, runoff simulations were affected more strongly by K_s variability than by θ_i variability. The degree of spatial variability influences on runoff simulations was related to the rainfall pattern and θ_i. Greater rainfall depth and instantaneous rainfall intensity corresponded to a smaller influence of the spatial variability. Stronger effects of the θ_i variability on runoff simulation were found in wetter soils, while stronger effects of the K_s variability were found in drier soils. For accurate runoff simulation, the θ_i variability can be completely ignored in cases of a 1-h duration storm with a return period greater than 10 years, while K_s variability should be fully considered even in the case of a 1-h duration storm with a return period of 20 years.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Fiori