利用统计地震模型从地震活动参数中获得流体信号

根据众所周知的库伦破裂准则,应力或孔隙压力的变化都会导致地震破裂。余震活动一般认为是地震应力变化引起的,它服从大森定律。而地震群则认为是通过地下流体侵入岩层所致。应力触发可以通过在地壳单独构建三维弹力应变模型分析,而地震引起的地下流体流动情况必须通过空隙压力变化和地震之间相互作用应力场的改变这样复杂的地震活动图像研究。我们看到ETAS模型是从复杂地震活动图像获得最初流体信号的一种适当工具。我们主要分析2000年发生在欧洲中部的波西米亚西北部Vogtland地区的大地震群。通过拟合随机的传染型余震序列模型(ETAS)我们发现应力触发在创建观测地震活动图像和解释观测事件破碎时间分布时起支配性作用。外力在直接触发引起地震活动中起到的作用是很有限的,这种外力被认为是由于流体入侵导致孔隙压力变化而产生的。然而时间上的反褶积表明显著的流体信号源于地震群。这些结果已被我们的仿真模型模拟研究证实,在这个研究中,流体侵入和应力在三维弹性半空间中沿断层面转移时触发地震。基于ETAS模型的反褶积过程能够揭示地下孔隙压力变化。     

Incremental dynamic analysis with consideration of modeling uncertainties

Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) has been extended by introducing a set of structural models in addition to the set of ground motion records which is employed in IDA analysis in order to capture record‐to‐record variability. The set of structural models reflects epistemic (modeling) uncertainties, and is determined by utilizing the latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. The effects of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty on seismic response parameters are therefore considered in extended IDA analysis. The proposed method has been applied to an example of the four‐storey‐reinforced concrete frame, for which pseudo‐dynamic tests were performed at the ELSA Laboratory, Ispra. The influence of epistemic uncertainty on the seismic response parameters is presented in terms of summarized IDA curves and dispersion measures. The results of extended IDA analysis are compared with the results of IDA analysis, and the sensitivity of the seismic response parameters to the input random variable using the LHS method is discussed. It is shown that epistemic uncertainty does not have significant influence on the seismic response parameters in the range far from collapse, but could have a significant influence on collapse capacity. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wavelet combined innovative trend analysis for precipitation data in the Euphrates-Tigris basin,Turkey

ABSTRACT

In this study, annual and seasonal precipitation trend analysis was performed in the Euphrates-Tigris basin, Turkey, using innovative trend analysis (ITA) and discrete wavelet transformation. In this context, it was seen that there is a downward trend in winter, spring and annual precipitation, whereas precipitation has an increasing tendency in summer and autumn seasons, in the greater part of the basin. When annual and seasonal data were decomposed into wavelet components, the most significant trends were observed for high-periodic wavelet components, such as D3 (8-year), D4 (16-year) and D5 (32-year), where these components represent the periods of the precipitation data. Then, the relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and trend in precipitation was investigated. In this regard, it was found that there could be a significant relationship between the NAO and precipitation trends of the Euphrates-Tigris basin, especially in winter, based on the wavelet ITA.     

地震散射波的高精度数值模拟与振幅分析

随着地震勘探要求和技术的不断提高,散射波地震勘探方法逐渐引起人们的重视,尤其在构造复杂地区的高精度勘探中,散射波理论具有广泛的应用前景.本文在讨论了现阶段几种散射波数值模拟方法的利弊后,设计了一种基于微扰论的FK域积分法,在散射场的二次震源和空间能量衰减处理两方面做了改进,其计算精度和效率均得到了提高.此外,采用该算法针对散射波动力学进行了正演模拟试算,从扰动介质空间分布和扰动量两个角度定量地分析了散射波振幅动力学方面的特征.在此基础上得到了五个经验常数,并给出了对应的计算公式和物理意义,通过这五个常数可以划分散射波不同形态的动力学特征.     

On the circulation in the East Frisian Wadden Sea: numerical modeling and data analysis

 In this paper we use a combination of numerical modeling and data analysis to gain a better understanding of the major characteristics of the circulation in the East Frisian Wadden Sea. In particular, we concentrate on the asymmetry of the tidal wave and its modulation in the coastal area, which results in a complex pattern of responses to the sea-level forcing from the North Sea. The numerical simulations are based on the 3-D primitive equation General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM) with a horizontal resolution of 200 m and terrain-following vertical coordinates. The model is forced at its open boundaries with sea-level data from an operational model for the German Bight (German Hydrographic Office). The validation data for our model simulations include time series of tidal gauge data and surface currents measured at a pile in the back-barrier basin of the Island Langeoog, as well as several ADCP transects in the Accumer Ee tidal inlet. Circulation and turbulence characteristics are investigated for typical situations driven by spring and neap tides, and the analysis is focused on dominating temporal and spatial patterns. By investigating the response of five back-barrier basins with rather different morphologies to external forcing, an attempt is made to elucidate the dominating physical balances controlling the circulation in the individual sub-basins. It is demonstrated that the friction at the seabed tends to slow down the tidal signal in the shallow water. This leads to the establishment of flood dominance in the shallow sea north of the barrier islands. South of the islands, where the water volume of the channels at low tide is smaller than the tidal prism, the asymmetry of the tidal signal is shifted towards ebb dominance, a feature which is particularly pronounced at spring tide. At the northern open boundary, the tidal wave propagating from west to east generates a sea-level difference of ∼1 m along the boundary, and thereby triggers vigorous alongshore currents. The frictional control in the model is located in the inlets, as well as along the northern boundary. The correlation between velocity and turbulent kinetic energy tends to the establishment of a net southward transport, giving theoretical support to the observed accumulation of sediments on the intertidal flats. Weak turbulence along the northern shores of the barrier islands and the small magnitude of the residual currents there promote accumulation of suspended matter in these areas, although wave action will generally counteract this effect. Received: 29 May 2002 / Accepted: 26 September 2002 Responsible Editor: Jean-Marie Beckers Acknowledgements We are indebted to S. Dick for providing the data from the operational model of BSH and to B. Flemming for the useful discussions. The topography data and Fig. 1 have been prepared in cooperation with F. Meyer. Figure 2 has been prepared by G. Brink-Spalink. We also thank for the comments from an anonymous reviewer which helped to improve our paper.     

Joint conditional simulations and the spectral approach for flow modeling

The use of data to condition single random fields has a well-established history. However, the joint use of data from several cross-correlated random fields is not as well developed. For example, the use of both transmissivity and head data in a steady state 2-d stochastic flow problem is essentially an inverse problem that is very important for both flow and transport predictions. This problem is addressed here by using a combination of numerical simulation and analytical methods and its application illustrated. The type of information conveyed by the different data categories is explored. The results presented are especially interesting in that head and transmissivity each give different information: Head values would appear to constrain the geometry of the paths while transmissivity data yields information about travel times. The linearized model is expanded to an iterative procedure and the true conditional distribution at several locations is compared with the iterative solution.The problem mentioned above is one with a special transfer function specified by the flow equation. In the second part of the paper a Fast Fourier Transform method for generation and conditioning of two or more random fields is introduced. This procedure is simple to implement, fast and very flexible.     

Joint conditional simulations and the spectral approach for flow modeling

The use of data to condition single random fields has a well-established history. However, the joint use of data from several cross-correlated random fields is not as well developed. For example, the use of both transmissivity and head data in a steady state 2-d stochastic flow problem is essentially an inverse problem that is very important for both flow and transport predictions. This problem is addressed here by using a combination of numerical simulation and analytical methods and its application illustrated. The type of information conveyed by the different data categories is explored. The results presented are especially interesting in that head and transmissivity each give different information: Head values would appear to constrain the geometry of the paths while transmissivity data yields information about travel times. The linearized model is expanded to an iterative procedure and the true conditional distribution at several locations is compared with the iterative solution.The problem mentioned above is one with a special transfer function specified by the flow equation. In the second part of the paper a Fast Fourier Transform method for generation and conditioning of two or more random fields is introduced. This procedure is simple to implement, fast and very flexible.     

Calibration of dynamic analysis methods from field test data

In view of the heterogeneity of natural soil deposits and approximations made in analysis methods, in situ methods of determining soil parameters are highly desirable. The problem of interest here is the nonlinear dynamic behavior of pile foundations. It is shown in this paper that soil parameters needed for simplified dynamic analysis of a single pile may be back-calculated from the dynamic response of the pile measured in the field. A pile was excited by applying a large horizontal dynamic force at the pile-head level, and the response measured. In this paper, two different (simplified) methods of modeling the dynamic response of the pile are considered. One of the methods is based on the Winkler foundation approach, with the spring constant characterized by the so-called nonlinear p–y springs. The second method is based on the equivalent-linear finite element approach, with the nonlinearity of shear modulus and damping accounted for by employing the so-called degradation relationships. In the latter, the effect of interface nonlinearity is also considered. Starting with best estimates of soil parameters, the experimental data on the response of pile is used to fine-tune the values of the parameters, and thereby, to estimate parameters that are representative of in situ soil conditions.     

Investigating the effect of complexity on groundwater flow modeling uncertainty

Considering complexity in groundwater modeling can aid in selecting an optimal model, and can avoid over parameterization, model uncertainty, and misleading conclusions. This study was designed to determine the uncertainty arising from model complexity, and to identify how complexity affects model uncertainty. The Ajabshir aquifer, located in East Azerbaijan, Iran, was used for comprehensive hydrogeological studies and modeling. Six unique conceptual models with four different degrees of complexity measured by the number of calibrated model parameters (6, 10, 10, 13, 13 and 15 parameters) were compared and characterized with alternative geological interpretations, recharge estimates and boundary conditions. The models were developed with Model Muse and calibrated using UCODE with the same set of observed data of hydraulic head. Different methods were used to calculate model probability and model weight to explore model complexity, including Bayesian model averaging, model selection criteria, and multicriteria decision-making (MCDM). With the model selection criteria of AIC, AICc and BIC, the simplest model received the highest model probability. The model selection criterion, KIC, and the MCDM method, in addition to considering the quality of model fit between observed and simulated data and the number of calibrated parameters, also consider uncertainty in parameter estimates with a Fisher information matrix. KIC and MCDM selected a model with moderate complexity (10 parameters) and the best parameter estimation (model 3) as the best models, over another model with the same degree of complexity (model 2). The results of these comparisons show that in choosing between models, priority should be given to quality of the data and parameter estimation rather than degree of complexity.     

Definitive superparamagnetic source identification through spatial,temporal, and amplitude analysis of airborne electromagnetic data

The aim of this paper is to add confidence to existing methods using decay shape analysis to detect superparamagnetic responses in airborne electromagnetic data. While expensive to acquire, vertical spatial gradient measurements of the electromagnetic signals can discriminate near‐surface superparamagnetic sources. This research investigated the use of horizontal spatial gradients and amplitude information as further indicators of superparamagnetic. High horizontal gradients were shown both theoretically and in field data to help discriminate superparamagnetic from deep mineral targets. Further, superparamagnetic responses have characteristically small amplitudes inconsistent with realistic mineral exploration targets at shallow depths.     

An explicit finite element method for dy—namic analysis in three—medium coupling system and its application

In this paper,an explicit finite element method to analyze the dynamic responses of three-medium coupled systems with any terrain is developed on the basis of the numerical simulation of the continuous conditions on the bounda-ries among fluid saturated porous medium,elastic single-phase medium and ideal fluid medium.This method is a very effective one with the characteristic of high calculating speed and small memory needed because the formulae for this explicit finite element method have the characteristic of decoupling,and which does not need to solve sys-tem of linear equations.The method is applied to analyze the dynamic response of a reservoir with considering the dynamic interactions among water,dam,sediment and basement rock.The vertical displacement at the top point of the dam is calculated and some conclusions are given.     

Nonlinear dynamic analysis of Meloland Road Overpass using three-dimensional continuum modeling approach

This paper presents a three-dimensional (3D) continuum nonlinear analysis of the Meloland Road Overpass (MRO) near El Centro, California. The modeling methodology and the computational tools are discussed in detail. The performance of the computational model is evaluated by comparing the computed responses with the responses recorded at the bridge site during the 1979 Imperial Valley and 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquakes. Amongst the recorded earthquake events at the bridge site, these two events caused the strongest shaking. The comparison shows that the 3D model is potentially an effective tool for detailed analysis of a full bridge system including foundation soils, pile foundations, embankments, supporting columns, and the bridge structure itself in a unified system without relying on any ancillary models such as Winkler springs. Additional response parameters such as displacements, rockings, and bending moments are also evaluated although none of these was measured during the seismic events.     

足尺磁流变阻尼器的建模及动态特性

在过去三十年左右的时间里,结构保护系统受到了广大研究者的普遍关注.这种保护系统可以用来降低自然灾害(如地震、强风)对上木工程建筑的损害.由于磁流变阻尼器机械结构简单,动态范围大,能耗低,回复力大,鲁棒性良好,能够在满足不同工程项目需求的同时提供有效的结构抗震抗风手段,目前它是一种非常有前途的半主动结构减震装置.本文首先介绍了磁流变液体和装置的主要特性和优点,建立了磁流变阻尼器的伪静力轴对称模型,并将其结果和平行板模型以及阻尼器实验结果进行了比较.尽管伪静力模型对于阻尼器的设计十分有效,但是它们还不足以描述阻尼器的动态特性.对实际工程应用来说,动态响应时间是一项非常重要的性能指标.文章还讨论了影响磁流变阻尼器动态响应时间的因素,建立了基于Bouc-Wen模型的阻尼器动态模型.同时文章也提出了优化阻尼器动态响应的途径和方法以及其实验验证.     

Source differentiation, modeling and simulating strong-motion data from Iran

For designing a structure to withstand the effects of strong earthquake ground motions, it is necessary to characterize the type of motion that probably affects the structure. The strong-motion accelerograms contain numerous data regarding the source, path, and receiver. Variables such as the Richter magnitude, hypocenter depth, duration of the event, and focal mechanism relate to the source. The soil parameter and distance to epicenter, relate to the path. The application of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process in modeling an earthquake accelerogram of three different regions of Iran reveals a formulation, which relates the physical variables via a regression analysis. In order to generate time history data of a probable future earthquake, it is recommended to use the regression equations for a specific type of earthquake focal mechanism if the future earthquake mechanism and physical variables are known; otherwise, regional equations are more suitable.     

饱和岩石的动态渗透率和动电耦合系数解析式

动态渗透率和动电耦合系数是描述岩石中渗流波动和弹性-电磁耦合波效应的重要参数.本文基于毛细管束模型,提出了流体饱和孔隙介质的动态渗透率和动电耦合系数的解析表达式和简化表达式,并通过与前人近似式结果的对比,分析了不同表达式的合理性和适用性.在此基础上,理论分析了孔隙几何形状和孔径分布对渗透率和动电耦合系数的频率响应以及井孔震电耦合波场的影响.研究结果表明：当认为孔道均匀且达西渗透率、孔隙度和弯曲度恒定时,孔隙几何形状的影响很小,可以忽略,而前人的近似式高估了孔隙几何形状的影响;孔径分布的影响显著,随着孔径分布的增大,渗透率的临界频率显著减小,动电耦合系数的临界频率显著增加,震电测井的斯通利波及其伴随电场幅度显著增大.

     

Investigating the extrapolation performance of neural network models in suspended sediment data

Suspended sediment modelling is a quite significant issue in hydrology. The prediction of suspended sediment has taken the attention of several scientists in water resources. With extrapolation, the forecasting ability of the employed forecasting model beyond the calibration range is investigated. In the present study, different smoothing parameters are used to differentiate the kurtosis of the local critical points (local minima and maxima). The two models used are an artificial neural network (ANN) model and a multiple linear regression (MLR) model for prediction in order to examine the model extrapolation ability. The ANN model provides closer estimations to the observed peaks, being higher than the corresponding MLR ones. For the local minima, the ANN predictions are higher than the MLR predictions. As there are limited local points, all the remaining ANN predictions are lower than the MLR ones except for one point.     

Investigating the influence of minor hydraulic structures on modeling flood events in lowland areas

Flood inundation models have been recognized to be a valuable tool to reproduce flow dynamics in a given area and support decision‐making processes on flood management measures. In many cases, in the simulation of flood events, only the main river channel and the associated structures are represented within the model. However, during flood events involving lowland areas, the minor drainage network – and the associated hydraulic structures – may have an important role in conveying flow and determining which areas will be flooded. The objective of this study is to investigate whether – and to what extent – small hydraulic structures in drainage networks have an influence in flooding on lowland areas. The case study for this research is the 1990 flood event which occurred in the lowland plain of the Reno River, in Northern Italy. The study area is mainly used for agricultural purposes and has a drainage system with several small bridges and culverts. The influence of the minor hydraulic structures on flood dynamics was analyzed through a combined use of one‐dimensional (1D) and two‐dimensional (2D) hydraulic models. First, a number of detailed and simplified approaches to represent hydraulic structures in the computational grids were analyzed by means of the HECRAS 1D model. Second, these approaches were implemented and tested in several 2D simulations of the flood event. The simulated inundation extents and flood levels were then compared with the observed data and with each other. The analysis of results showed that simplified schematizations were sufficient to obtain good model predictions of peak inundation extent and flood levels, at least for the present case study. Moreover, the influence of the structures on the peak flood inundation extent and flood levels was found to be limited, whereas it showed to be more significant during the drainage phase of the flood. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Approaches to dynamic equilibrium in theoretical simulations of slope development

The model SLOP3D is used to identify characteristic aspects of slope development under different conditions. A series of slopes along the Kall valley in the northern Eifel is reproduced by a developmental sequence of model slopes. The spatial and temporal variations of the components of slope development systems (relief, slope form, weathering rates, denudation rates) are discussed by means of mass movement and wash denudation models. The negative feedbacks between system components create a tendency towards the establishment of a dynamic equilibrium which is reached, however, only if the endogenic and exogenic conditions remain constant for the required relaxation time. The latter is shown to be a function of slope length, of the rate of uplift, of the denudational process type, and of the intensity of exogenic inputs (e.g. precipitation). Varying rock resistance leads to the development of shield inselbergs only if the rate of denudation becomes higher than the maximum possible weathering rate of the resistant bedrock.     

Comparing 1D and combined 1D/2D hydraulic simulations using high-resolution topographic data: a case study of the Koiliaris basin,Greece

The development of high spatial resolution digital elevation models takes place via the use of GeoEye-1 stereo-pair imagery, providing highly accurate geometrical representations of complex riverine systems. The combination of geographic information systems with hydraulic models facilitates the exploitation of satellite topographic information throughout the cross-section extraction process. One-dimensional HEC-RAS and combined 1D/2D HEC-RAS models are adjusted by making use of the resulting high-resolution input. Several hydraulic simulations are effectuated in order to test how significantly DEM resolution affects hydraulic modelling results, with regard also to the model dimensionality. The ability of the combined 1D/2D model, based mainly on the high-accuracy input data, provides an accurate estimate of the flood hazard area. Flood-prone areas could take advantage of high-accuracy results and facilitate the effective management of extreme events and sufficient decision making.     

Decoupled dynamic analysis of combined systems by iterative determination of interface accelerations

A dynamic analysis technique is presented that can be used to determine the response of a discrete model of a large linear structural system composed of multiple substructures. The technique circumvents the costly computation of the modal characteristics of the combined system. This is accomplished by relying on a predictor-corrector scheme to converge iteratively to the interface accelerations of the combined system, while the equations of motions of the individual structures are integrated separately. In this regard, the temporal slopes of the interface accelerations (jerks) are computed at each time point of integration to predict the interface accelerations at the next time point. The proposed technique is exemplified by conducting a space shuttle landing loads analysis; the obtained numerical data demonstrate its reliability and efficiency.