Earthquake loss estimation for the New York City Metropolitan Region

This study is a thorough risk and loss assessment of potential earthquakes in the NY–NJ–CT Metropolitan Region. This study documents the scale and extent of damage and disruption that may result if earthquakes of various magnitudes occurred in this area. Combined with a detailed geotechnical soil characterization of the region, scenario earthquakes were modeled in HAZUS (Hazards US), a standardized earthquake loss estimation methodology and modeling program. Deterministic and probabilistic earthquake scenarios were modeled and simulated, which provided intensities of ground shaking, dollar losses associated with capital (the building inventory) and subsequent income losses. This study has also implemented a detailed critical (essential) facilities analysis, assessing damage probabilities and facility functionality after an earthquake. When viewed in context with additional information about regional demographics and seismic hazards, the model and results serve as a tool to identify the areas, structures and systems with the highest risk and to quantify and ultimately reduce those risks.     

Seismic vulnerability assessment to slight damage based on experimental modal parameters

The aim of this paper is to adjust behaviour models for each class of structure for vulnerability assessment by using ambient vibration. A simple model based on frequencies, mode shapes and damping, taken from ambient vibrations, allows computation of the response of the structures and comparison of inter‐storey drifts with the limits found in the literature for the slight damage grade, considered here as the limit of elastic behaviour. Two complete methodologies for building fragility curves are proposed: (1) using a multi‐degree of freedom system including higher modes and full seismic ground‐motion and (2) using a single‐degree of freedom model considering the fundamental mode f₀ of the structure and ground‐motion displacement response spectra S_D(f₀). These two methods were applied to the city of Grenoble, where 60 buildings were studied. Fragility curves for slight damage were derived for the various masonry and reinforced concrete classes of buildings. A site‐specific earthquake scenario, taking into account local site conditions, was considered, corresponding to an M_L = 5.5 earthquake at a distance of 15 km. The results show the benefits of using experimental models to reduce variability of the slight damage fragility curve. Moreover, by introducing the experimental modal model of the buildings, it is possible to improve seismic risk assessment at an overall scale (the city) or a local scale (the building) for the first damage grade (slight damage). This level of damage, of great interest for moderate seismic‐prone regions, may contribute to the seismic loss assessment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparing Loss Estimation with Observed Damage in a Zone of Ground Failure: A Study of the 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake in Turkey

The building losses in Adapazari following the 17 August 1999 Kocaeli earthquake are estimated for both ground-shaking and ground-failure induced damage and the predictions compared with field observations. The ground-shaking damage is estimated using the capacity spectrum approach and accommodating the results of a previously published calibration of this model. These results, which do not incorporate ground-failure damage, are compared to the observed damage patterns in Adapazari to illustrate the significance of not including the more complex ground failure component in a loss model for a region of high liquefaction susceptibility. A preliminary estimation of ground-failure-induced damage is then presented based upon the HAZUS (FEMA, 2003) default methodology. The benefits of these additional calculations to the overall loss model are assessed to provide some quantitative decision-making guidance for those producing loss estimation models. The findings suggest that the benefits of specifically incorporating ground failure into a loss model only start to be obtained if a detailed approach using in situ geotechnical data as well as adequate representation of building foundations is adopted. Otherwise, the additional input data required is not commensurate with the small potential refinement in the estimated losses, particularly considering the compounded uncertainties associated with the simplified approach.     

基于遥感和GIS的建筑物震害损失评估方法研究与实现

介绍了一种使用遥感技术进行震后损失快速评估的方法,评估流程包括震害提取和损失评估两个部分。评估方式根据需求可以分为基于震害指数的评估和基于图像分类结果的评估两种模式,前者通过震害指数与烈度的关系得到地面居民住地的宏观震害情况,结合地震应急数据进行建筑物损失评估;后者采用图像处理技术,选取典型震害样本以图像分类技术得到地面居民住地的分级分类的震害结果,然后计算参数进行损失评估。损失评估的计算根据震害提取模式而不同。这种遥感震害评估方法和计算流程结合了遥感和GIS技术,以满足实际工作需求目标,提高了震害提取的自动化程度,实现多人工作模式,通过有效率的人机交互来提高遥感震害评估的速度。     

Site classification using equivalent soil profiles for building-liquefaction interaction

The seismic behaviour of a building on a liquefiable deposit is a complex interaction which involves quantifying both shaking induced damage and permanent ground deformation-related damage. In this paper the key parameters that influence both surface shaking and foundation settlements have been identified as the depth, thickness and liquefaction resistance of an equivalent liquefiable layer. These parameters can be used to develop an ‘equivalent soil profile’ that is analogous to the equivalent single degree-of-freedom that reduces the complexity of the dynamic response of a building into comparable and easily understood quantities. The equivalent soil profile is quantified independent of the seismic hazard, making it compatible with performance based design and assessment frameworks such that the building and soil profile can be directly assessed at different levels of seismic hazard. Several numerical studies are presented that demonstrate the influence of these key parameters on the ground surface shaking and foundation settlement. A set of criteria are proposed for classifying soil profiles into 22 different soil classes for regional loss assessment. An algorithm was developed for automatically fitting the equivalent soil profile to a cone penetration test trace and issues with the fitting are discussed. Field reconnaissance was undertaken to collect additional data to support existing datasets on the performance of buildings in Adapazari, during the 1999 Kocaeli, Turkey, earthquake (Mw = 7.4). The field case history data was used to investigate the correlation between the depth, thickness and liquefaction resistance of an equivalent liquefiable layer, on the extent of foundation permanent deformation. The case history data showed that in general a shallow, thick and weak liquefiable layer near the surface results in significant settlement but a lack of data for buildings on non-liquefiable deposits and the additional complexities involved with real buildings and soil deposits, meant that the trends observed in the idealised numerical models could not identified in the field case history data set.

     

Influence of the ground profile on the reduction of earthquake motion at the filled man-made islands in the Kobe harbor during the 1995 Hyogoken Nambu earthquake

During the 1995 Hyogoken Nambu earthquake in Kobe, the ground motion at the filled man-made islands in the Kobe harbor was not as severe as that at the mainland. The building damage was also less compared to that on the mainland. It was found by comparative study of earthquake records that the magnitude of acceleration response on the ground surface decreases at the islands as opposed to the mainland. One dimensional effective stress analysis is adopted in this study. Input data has been generated from test results, e.g. the SPT N-value by standard penetration test and shear wave velocity V_s by PS logging. Results obtained by the analyses showed good agreement with the observed records, which is an indication of the suitability of the adopted analysis procedure. From this study, the followings are concluded. By the increase of SPT N-value of the filled layers, liquefaction near ground surface is restrained and damage modes such as ejection of water and soil can be prevented. Since the ground profile at the islands is that considerably soft filled layer and marine clay layers, etc. are present and the thickness of the surface layer is large, the initial natural period of the ground is above 1 s and the natural period is elongated further under the earthquake excitation, which is deemed to be the principal reason for the reduction of the earthquake motion at the ground surface.     

Structure, soil–structure response and effects of damage based on observations of horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios of microtremors

The microtremor horizontal-to-vertical-spectral-ratio (HVSR) technique is widely used in the urban environment to assess the fundamental frequency response of the ground. Extensive literature exists about case histories using HVSR for microzonation in several cities, but no systematic studies have been devoted to check the presence of soil–structure interaction effects, and even less attention to study building behaviour after earthquake damage. To evaluate the above-mentioned effects, a series of experiments are reported in this article.We first made a series of microtremor measurements on buildings and civil structures to evaluate the reliability of fundamental frequency determinations. Then, we considered several case studies to evaluate the effect of soil–structure interaction in estimates of site response in the presence of tall buildings. Finally, an experiment on the frequency change due to damage was performed. It was possible to confirm that HVSR is able to detect building fundamental modes and once known the building frequency, it is also possible to detect the presence of soil–structure interaction. Thus, once the presence of the building natural frequency is identified, it is possible to infer the site response from free field measurements. We also found that the HVSR technique is equally useful for detecting structural damage by determining the frequency shift of the buildings.     

包括震后固结沉降在内的多层结构物基础抗震性分析

以一多层框架结构停车场的地基基础为研究对象,分析其在将来可能发生大地震中的动力特性。除地基可能出现的液化,还包括地震中的瞬时沉降及地震后地基长期固结沉降,尤其是不均匀沉降。采用水土耦合2维有限元分析法,对研究领域的地基基础及上部结构进行整体建模。计算中采用的地震波为一三连动人工地震波,最大加速度为182gal,主震持续150s。为比较不同的基础形式对地基液化和沉降的影响,对采用长桩和密集型短柱两种基础形式做分析比较。有限元计算中,采用能反映其地层土交变移动特性的弹塑性本构模型来描述土的动力学特性,桩基础和上部框架结构采用梁单元模型,密集型短柱基础采用弹性单元模型。结果表明,除地震中地基的液化,震后随着超孔隙水压的消散,地基基础长期不均匀沉降也是不可忽略的重要问题。     

Influence of spatial correlation of strong ground motion on uncertainty in earthquake loss estimation

In addition to the mean values of possible loss during an earthquake, parameters of the probability distribution function for the loss to a portfolio (e.g. fractiles and standard deviation) are very important. Recent studies have shown that the proper treatment of ground‐motion variability and, particularly, the correlation of ground motion are essential for the estimation of the seismic hazard, damage and loss for distributed portfolios. In this study, we compared the effects of variations in the between‐earthquake correlation and in the site‐to‐site correlation on seismic loss and damage estimations for the extended objects (hypothetical portfolio) and critical elements (e.g. bridges) of a network. A scenario earthquake approach and a portfolio containing a set of hypothetical building and bridges were used for the purpose. We showed that the relative influences of the types of correlation on characteristics of loss distribution and the probability of damage are not equal. In some cases, when the median values of loss distribution or the probability that at least one critical element of a lifeline will be damaged are considered and when the spatial correlation of ground motion is used, the possible variations in the between‐earthquake correlation may be neglected. The shape of the site‐to‐site correlation function (i.e. the rate of decrease of the coefficient of spatial correlation with separation distance) seems also to be important when modelling spatially correlated ground‐motion fields. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of soil liquefaction incorporating earthquake characteristics

This paper investigates the effect of nature of the earthquake on the assessment of liquefaction potential of a soil deposit during earthquake loading. Here, the nature of the earthquake is included via the parameter V, the ‘pseudo-velocity’, that is the gross area under the acceleration record of the earthquake at any depth below the ground surface. By analysing a number of earthquake records from different parts of the world, a simple method has been outlined to assess the liquefaction potential of a soil deposit based on the pseudo-velocity. For many earthquakes occurred in the past, acceleration records are available or can be computed at the ground level or some other depth below the ground surface. Therefore, this method is a useful tool at the preliminary design stage to determine the liquefaction potential before going into a detailed analysis. Validation of the method is carried out using a database of case histories consisting of standard penetration test values, acceleration records at the ground surface and field observations of liquefaction/non-liquefaction. It can be seen that the proposed method has the ability to predict soil liquefaction potential accurately, despite its simplicity.     

基于强震动记录的地震生命损失快速评估方法

随着我国强震动观测数据数量和质量的大幅提高, 破坏性地震发生后所观测到的强震动记录也在试验性地转化为仪器烈度数据． 本文将强震动记录引入应急性的生命损失快速评估, 借助已有的地震应急灾害损失快速评估模型的表达方法, 提出了一种将仪器烈度概率密度函数和生命损失函数相结合的地震人员伤亡快速评估方法． 通过确定仪器烈度的概率密度, 并结合四川地区已有房屋建筑易损性研究成果, 建立了考虑建筑地震易损性并与烈度相关的地震生命损失快速评估函数, 并利用汶川地震的强震动记录对本文提出的生命损失快速评估方法进行评估计算. 结果表明, 该方法的计算结果与实际震害损失结果颇为一致, 说明了该方法的可行性, 因而能够及时为地震应急救援提供可靠信息．      

Non-linear site response simulations in Chang-Hwa region during the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake, Taiwan

The destructive 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake (M_w 7.5) was the largest inland earthquake in Taiwan in the 20th century. Several observations witness the non-linear seismic soil response in sediments during the earthquake. In fact, large settlements as well as evidence of liquefaction attested by sand boils and unusual wet ground surface were observed at some sites. In this paper, we present a seismic response simulation performed with CyberQuake software on a site located within the Chang-Hwa Coastal Industrial Park during the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake in Taiwan. A non-linear multi-kinematic dynamic constitutive model is implemented in the software. Computed NS, EW and UP ground accelerations obtained with this model under undrained and two-phase assumptions, are in good agreement with the corresponding accelerations recorded at seismic station TCU117, either for peak location, amplitudes or frequency content. In these simulations, liquefaction occurs between depths 1.3 and 11.3 m, which correspond to the observed range attested by in place penetration tests and other liquefaction analyses. Moreover, the computed shear wave velocity profile is very close to post-earthquake shear wave velocity profile derived from correlations with CPT and SPT data. Finally, it is shown that in non-linear computations, even though a 1D geometry is considered, it is necessary to take into account the three components of the input motion.     

Evaluation of a recently proposed record selection and scaling procedure for low‐rise to mid‐rise reinforced concrete buildings and its use for probabilistic risk assessment studies

This paper evaluates a recent record selection and scaling procedure of the authors that can determine the probabilistic structural response of buildings behaving either in the elastic or post‐elastic range. This feature marks a significant strength on the procedure as the probabilistic structural response distribution conveys important information on probability‐based damage assessment. The paper presents case studies that show the utilization of the proposed record selection and scaling procedure as a tool for the estimation of damage states and derivation of site‐specific and region‐specific fragility functions. The method can be used to describe exceedance probabilities of damage limits under a certain target hazard level with known annual exceedance rate (via probabilistic seismic hazard assessment). Thus, the resulting fragility models can relate the seismicity of the region (or a site) with the resulting building performance in a more accurate manner. Under this context, this simple and computationally efficient record selection and scaling procedure can be benefitted significantly by probability‐based risk assessment methods that have started to be considered as indispensable for developing robust earthquake loss models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Probabilistic Displacement-based Vulnerability Assessment Procedure for Earthquake Loss Estimation

Earthquake loss estimation studies require predictions to be made of the proportion of a building class falling within discrete damage bands from a specified earthquake demand. These predictions should be made using methods that incorporate both computational efficiency and accuracy such that studies on regional or national levels can be effectively carried out, even when the triggering of multiple earthquake scenarios, as opposed to the use of probabilistic hazard maps and uniform hazard spectra, is employed to realistically assess seismic demand and its consequences on the built environment. Earthquake actions should be represented by a parameter that shows good correlation to damage and that accounts for the relationship between the frequency content of the ground motion and the fundamental period of the building; hence recent proposals to use displacement response spectra. A rational method is proposed herein that defines the capacity of a building class by relating its deformation potential to its fundamental period of vibration at different limit states and comparing this with a displacement response spectrum. The uncertainty in the geometrical, material and limit state properties of a building class is considered and the first-order reliability method, FORM, is used to produce an approximate joint probability density function (JPDF) of displacement capacity and period. The JPDF of capacity may be used in conjunction with the lognormal cumulative distribution function of demand in the classical reliability formula to calculate the probability of failing a given limit state. Vulnerability curves may be produced which, although not directly used in the methodology, serve to illustrate the conceptual soundness of the method and make comparisons with other methods.     

Damage process of pile foundation in liquefied ground during strong ground motion

The 1995 Hyogoken–Nambu earthquake caused severe liquefaction over wide areas of reclaimed land. Furthermore, the liquefaction induced large ground displacement in horizontal directions, which caused serious damage to foundations of structures. However, few analyses of steel pipe piles based on field investigation have so far been conducted to identify the causes and process of such damage. The authors conducted a soil–pile-structure interaction analysis by applying a multi-lumped-mass-spring model to a steel pipe pile foundation structure to evaluate the causes and process of its damage. The damage process analyzed in the time domain corresponded well with the results of detailed field investigation. It was found that a large bending moment beyond the ultimate plastic moment of the pile foundation structure was induced mainly by the large ground displacement caused by liquefaction before lateral spreading of the ground and that the displacement appeared during the accumulating process of the excess pore water pressure.     

基于格网的全国尺度地震灾害损失预测系统设计与实现

空间格网数据相比于矢量数据具有运算速度快、处理简单的特点,适合地震灾害损失震前预测或震后快速评估。但地震损失评估涉及地震危险性及人口、房屋建筑及其地震易损性等不同类型数据在全国范围内的千米格网分布,数据量大,数据变化时形成新的格网数据的工作量较大,使用常规震害预测算法会影响评估效率。依据地震损失评估原理,采取前置确定性损失评估策略和算法优化,结合GIS功能设计并编程实现了具有风险评估相关数据千米格网化处理、地震损失预测与震后快速评估等核心功能的软件系统。利用该系统进行了2016～2025年中国大陆千米格网地震损失预测,结果表明评估效率显著提高,该系统为我国新一代地震重点监视防御区的确定提供了实用化的震害损失预测工具,同时,在地震损失快速评估中亦得到较好应用。     

Seismic response estimation method for earthquake‐damaged RC buildings

This study proposes a procedure for identifying spectral response curves for earthquake‐damaged areas in developing countries without seismic records. An earthquake‐damaged reinforced concrete building located in Padang, Indonesia was selected to illustrate the identification of the maximum seismic response during the 2009 West Sumatra earthquake. This paper summarizes the damage incurred by the building; the majority of the damage was observed in the third story in the span direction. The damage was quantitatively evaluated using the damage index R according to the Japanese guidelines for post‐earthquake damage evaluation. The damage index was also applied to the proposed spectral response identification method. The seismic performance of the building was evaluated by a nonlinear static analysis. The analytical results reproduced a drift concentration in the third story. The R‐index decreased with an increase in the story drift, which provided an estimation of the maximum response of the building during the earthquake. The estimation was verified via an earthquake response analysis of the building using ground acceleration data, which were simulated based on acceleration records of engineering bedrock that considered site amplification. The maximum response estimated by the R‐index was consistent with the maximum response obtained from the earthquake response analysis. Therefore, the proposed method enables the construction of spectral response curves by integrating the identification results for the maximum responses in a number of earthquake‐damaged buildings despite a lack of seismic records. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Comparison of horizontal ground displacements in Avonside area,Christchurch from air photo,LiDAR and satellite measurements regarding pipeline damage assessment

Recent earthquakes show that pipeline damage is severe in the areas where permanent ground deformations (e.g., liquefaction zones) occur. Ground movement hazard to pipeline systems can be assessed by using ground displacement measurements around the location of pipelines. There are many different ways of measuring ground displacements after an earthquake occur. This paper compares displacements measured in Avonside area, Christchurch, NZ, by using four different ways with respect to their effects on pipeline damage assessments. They are air photo, satellite, high resolution light detection and ranging (LiDAR) surveys data presented at 4- and 56-m grids acquired before and after the M_w6.2 22 February 2011 earthquake. Avonside area was in the liquefaction zones of the 22 February 2011 earthquake. Where possible, benchmark measurements were also included in the comparisons. In this study, the focus was on asbestos cement and cast iron water pipelines as the length of the pipelines and the number of damages in the study area was much higher compared to other pipe materials, providing sufficient repair rate data passing the screening criteria to develop linear regressions. The correlations between pipeline damage and lateral ground strains were developed by calculating the horizontal strains from these four different type displacements. The comparisons show that satellite imagery is good for estimating total movements but not so good for estimating lateral strains and conversely LiDAR surveys are not so good for estimating total movements, but much better for estimating lateral strains. Hence, pipeline damage correlations with LiDAR calculated strains provide higher determination coefficient (r²) value. The results of comparisons are presented and discussed.     

Micro-scale modeling of saturated sandy soil behavior subjected to cyclic loading

Liquefaction induced damage to the built environment is one of the major causes of damage in an earthquake. Since Niigata earthquake in 1964, it has been popularly recognized that the liquefaction induced ground failures caused severe damage in various forms such as sand boiling, ground settlement, lateral spreading, landslide, etc. Since then, understanding the mechanism of liquefaction phenomena became very important to take measures against the liquefaction induced ground failures. To understand the mechanism of liquefaction, it is important to consider the soil as an assemblage of particles. A continuum approach may fail to explain some of the phenomena associated with liquefaction. Discrete approach, such as distinct/discrete element method (DEM), is an effective method that can simulate the mechanism of liquefaction and associated phenomena well at the microscopic level.