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1.
The reactions of alkoxy radicals determine to a large extent the products formed during the atmospheric degradations of emitted organic compounds. Experimental data concerning the decompositions, 1,5-H shift isomerizations and reactions with O2 of several classes of alkoxy radicals are inconsistent with literature estimations of their absolute or relative rate constants. An alternative, although empirical, method for assessing the relative importance under atmospheric conditions of the reactions of alkoxy radicals with O2 versus decomposition was derived. This estimation method utilizes the differences in the heats of reaction, (H)=(Hdecomposition–HO 2 reaction), between these two reactions pathways. For (H)[22–0.5(HO 2 reaction)], alkoxy radical decomposition dominates over the reaction with O2 at room temperature and atmospheric pressure of air, while for (H)[25-0.5(HO 2 reaction)], the O2 reaction dominates over decomposition (where the units of H are in kcal mol–1). The utility and shortcomings of this approach are discussed. It is concluded that further studies concerning the reactions of alkoxy radicals are needed.  相似文献   

2.
Ralf Greve 《Climatic change》2000,46(3):289-303
Numerical computations are performed with the three-dimensional polythermal ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS in order to investigate the possible impact of a greenhouse-gas-induced climate change on the Greenland ice sheet. The assumed increase of the mean annual air temperature above the ice covers a range from T = 1°C to 12°C, and several parameterizations for the snowfall and the surface melting are considered. The simulated shrinking of the ice sheet is a smooth function of the temperature rise, indications for the existence of critical thresholds of the climate input are not found. Within 1000 model years, the ice-volume decrease is limited to 10% of the present volume for T 3°C, whereas the most extreme scenario, T = 12°C, leads to an almost entire disintegration, which corresponds to a sea-level equivalent of 7 m. The different snowfall and melting parameterizations yield an uncertainty range of up to 20% of the present ice volume after 1000 model years.  相似文献   

3.
Impacts of climate change on vegetation are often summarized in biome maps, representing the potential natural vegetation class for each cell of a grid under current and changed climate. The amount of change between two biome maps is usually measured by the fraction of cells that change class, or by the kappa statistic. Neither measure takes account of varying structural and floristic dissimilarity among biomes. An attribute-based measure of dissimilarity (V) between vegetation classes is therefore introduced. V is based on (a) the relative importance of different plant life forms (e.g. tree, grass) in each class, and (b) a series of attributes (e.g. evergreen-deciduous, tropical-nontropical) of each life form with a weight for each attribute. V is implemented here for the most used biome model, BIOME 1 (Prentice, I. C. et al., 1992). Multidimensional scaling of pairwise V values verifies that the suggested importance values and attribute weights lead to a reasonable pattern of dissimilarities among biomes. Dissimilarity between two maps (V) is obtained by area-weighted averaging of V over the model grid. Using V, present global biome distribution from climatology is compared with anomaly-based scenarios for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (2 × CO2), and for extreme glacial and interglacial conditions. All scenarios are obtained from equilibrium simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. The 2 × CO2 simulations are the widely used OSU and GFDL runs from the 1980's, representing models with low and high climate sensitivity, respectively. The palaeoclimate simulations were made with CCM1, with sensitivity similar to GFDL. V values for the comparisons of 2 × CO2 with present climate are similar to values for the comparisons of the last interglacial and mid-Holocene with present climate. However, the two simulated 2 × CO2 cases are much more like each other than they are to the simulated interglacial cases. The largest V values were between the last glacial maximum and all other cases, including the present. These examples illustrate the potential of V in comparing the impacts of different climate change scenarios, and the possibility of calibrating climate change impacts against a palaeoclimatic benchmark.  相似文献   

4.
Summary The effect of the Alpine orography on prototype cold fronts approaching from the west is investigated by three-dimensional numerical model simulations. The numerical experiments cover a range of parameter constellations which govern the prefrontal environment of the front. Especially, the appearance and intensity of prefrontal northern Alpine foehn varies from case to case.The behaviour of a cold front north of the Alps depends much on the prefrontal condition it encounters. It is found that prefrontal foehn can either accelerate or retard the approaching front.An important feature is the pressure depression along the northern Alpine rim that results from the southerly foehn flow. In cases where this depression compensates the eastward directed pressure gradient associated with the largescale flow, the front tends to accelerate and the foehn breaks down as soon as the front passes. In contrast, the foehn prevents the front from a rapid eastward propagation if it is connected with a strong southerly wind component.No-foehn experiments are performed for comparison, where either the mountains are removed, or the static stability is set to neutral. Also shown are effects of different crossfrontal temperature contrasts.List of Symbols c F propagation speed of a front - x, y horizontal grid spacing (cartesian system) - , horizontal grid spacing (geographic system) - t time step - z vertical grid spacing (cartesian system) - cross-frontal potential temperature difference - i potential temperature step at an inversion - E turbulent kinetic energy - f Coriolis parameter - FGP frontogenesis parameter (see section 2.2) - g gravity acceleration (g=9.81 m s–2) - vertical gradient of potential temperature - h terrain elevation (above MSL) - h i height of an inversion (h i =1000 m MSL) - H height of model lid (H=9000 m MSL) - K M exchange coefficient of momentum - K H exchange coefficient of heat and moisture - longitude - N Brunt-Väisäla-frequency - p pressure - Exner function (=T/) - latitude - q v specific humidity - R d gas constant of dry air (R d =287.06 J kg–1 K–1) - density of dry air - t time - T temperature - potential temperature - TFP thermal front parameter (see section 2.2) - u, v, w cartesian wind components - u g ,v g geostrophic wind components - horizontal wind vector - x, y, z cartesian coordinates Abbreviations GND (above) ground level - MSL (above) mean sea level - UTC universal time coordinated With 20 Figures  相似文献   

5.
Bumping against a Gas Ceiling   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The adoption of physical thresholds as a ceiling for permitted climate change sidesteps contentious issues such as: policy cost, impact valuation, discounting and equity. In this paper I offer some reflections on the concept of tolerable climate change. I also use an integrated climate assessment model (ICAM-3) to demonstrate how uncertainties in our understanding of socioeconomic and earth systems reduce the probability of success in keeping climate change within a pre-defined tolerable range. Finally, I explore the implications of socioeconomic thresholds for welfare loss in pursuit of a climate policy (e.g., tax rebellions). Crossing such regional socioeconomic thresholds will lead to local failures to pursue climate change mitigation policies — increasing the probability of straying beyond the tolerable window of global climate change. Given various uncertainties and the dynamics of the socioeconomic and the earth systems, the odds of success in staying within a climate change window of T 2°C, and T/yr 0.015°C are estimated to be no higher than 25% over the next century. A risk-risk tradeoff approach appears to hold promise, but while adoption of a larger window of tolerance increases the probability of success, it also opens the window specification criteria to contention.  相似文献   

6.
The effect of changes in zonal and meridional atmospheric moisture transports on Atlantic overturning is investigated. Zonal transports are considered in terms of net moisture export from the Atlantic sector. Meridional transports are related to the vigour of the global hydrological cycle. The equilibrium thermohaline circulation (THC) simulated with an efficient climate model is strongly dependent on two key parameters that control these transports: an anomaly in the specified Atlantic–Pacific moisture flux (Fa) and atmospheric moisture diffusivity (Kq). In a large ensemble of spinup experiments, the values of Fa and Kq are varied by small increments across wide ranges, to identify sharp transitions of equilibrium THC strength in a 2-parameter space (between Conveyor On and Off states). Final states from this ensemble of simulations are then used as the initial states for further such ensembles. Large differences in THC strength between ensembles, for identical combinations of Fa and Kq, reveal the co-existence of two stable THC states (Conveyor On and Off)—i.e. a bistable regime. In further sensitivity experiments, the model is forced with small, temporary freshwater perturbations to the mid-latitude North Atlantic, to establish the minimum perturbation necessary for irreversible THC collapse in this bistable regime. A threshold is identified in terms of the forcing duration required. The model THC, in a Conveyor On state, irreversibly collapses to a Conveyor Off state under additional freshwater forcing of just 0.1 Sv applied for around 100 years. The irreversible collapse is primarily due to a positive feedback associated with suppressed convection and reduced surface heat loss in the sinking region. Increased atmosphere-to-ocean freshwater flux, under a collapsed Conveyor, plays a secondary role.  相似文献   

7.
We formulate a method for determining the smallest time interval Tover which a turbulence time series can be averaged to decompose it intoinstantaneous mean and random components. From the random part the method defines the optimal interval (or averaging window) AW over which this part should be averaged to obtain the instantaneous spectrum. Both T and AW vary randomly with time and depend on physical properties of the turbulence. T also depends on the accuracy of the measurements and is thus independent of AW. Interesting features of the method are its real-time capability and the non-equality between AW and T.  相似文献   

8.
Local Similarity Relationships In The Urban Boundary Layer   总被引:5,自引:3,他引:2  
To investigate turbulent structures in an urban boundary layer (UBL) with many tallbuildings, a number of non-dimensional variable groups based on turbulent observationsfrom a 325-m meteorological tower in the urban area of Beijing, China, are analyzedin the framework of local similarity. The extension of surface-layer similarity to localsimilarity in the stable and unstable boundary layer is also discussed. According to localsimilarity, dimensionless quantities of variables: e.g., velocity and temperature standarddeviations i/u*l (i=u,v,w) andT/T*l,correlation coefficients of uw and wT covariance, gradients of wind and temperaturem and h, and dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) andtemperature variance and N can be represented as a functiononly of a local stability parameter z/, where is the local Obukhovlength and z is the height above ground. The average dissipation rates of TKE andtemperature variance are computed by using the u spectrum, and the uw and wTcospectra in the inertial subrange. The functions above were found to be in a goodagreement with observational behaviour of turbulence under unstable conditions, butthere were obvious differences in the stable air.  相似文献   

9.
Zusammenfassung Eine endliche Reihe (Sequenz) wird als eine der möglichen Permutationen ihrer Glieder aufgefaßt. Es wird gezeigt, daß die Summe der absoluten Differenzen der aufeinanderfolgenden Glieder gleich ist , wo die natürliche Zahlen sind und nur von der Rangordnung der Glieder der Reihe (von der Permutation) abhängen; die j sind von der Reihenfolge unabhängig und werden durch die Dispersion der Reihenglieder bestimmt. Die j und die j werden separat untersucht; der Erwartungswert der erwähnten Differenzsumme wird abgeleitet. Verschiedene bereits bekannte und auch erstmalig hier vorgeschlagene Maßzahlen werden geprüft. An Reihen jährlicher Regenmengen wird die Rolle der j und der j und das Verhalten der besprochenen Maßzahlen veranschaulicht.
Summary A series ofn members can be considered as one of the possible permutations of its members. It is shown that the sum of the linear successive differences is equal to the expression , where the j are positive integers, dependent only upon the rank-order (the permutation) of the members, while the j are independent of the order of the succession and are determined by the dispersion of the members of the series. The factors j and j are separately investigated; the expected value of the sum of the linear successive differences is established. Various related statistical measures, already in usage and new ones suggested here, are discussed. Series of yearly rainfall amounts are used to show the effects of the j and j and to discuss the behaviour of the various measures.

Résumé Une série, constituée parn valeurs, est regardée comme une des possibles permutations de ces valeurs. L'auteur montre que la somme des différences absolues, qui se présentent entre les valeurs consécutives de la série, est égale à l'expression . Les j sont des nombres entiers positifs et ne dépendent que de l'ordre des membres de la série, tandis que les j, indépendants de l'ordre, sont déterminés par la dispersion des membres. Les facteurs j et j sont étudiés séparément; l'espérance mathématique de la somme mentionnée est dérivée. Des paramètres statistiques déjà connus ou proposés ici pour la première fois, sont discutés. Le rôle des j et des j et le comportement des divers paramètres sont montrés à l'aide de séries de totaux annuels de pluies.
  相似文献   

10.
Summary A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations is described. The procedure is based on the assumption that any regional climate is associated with a specific frequency distribution of classified large-scale weather situations. The frequency distributions are derived from multi-year episodes of low resolution global climate simulations. Highly resolved regional distributions of wind and temperature are calculated with a regional model for each class of large-scale weather situation. They are statistically evaluated by weighting them with the according climate-specific frequency. The procedure is exemplarily applied to the Alpine region for a global climate simulation of the present January climate.List of Symbols west-east mesh size in geographic coordinates south-north mesh size in geographic coordinates N number of large-scale weather classes n number of regional-scale event classes p pressure P probability Ø large-scale event regional-scale event q v specific humidity potential temperature u west-east wind component v south-north wind componentAbbreviations AGL above ground level - LT local time - UTC universal time coordinated With 13 Figures  相似文献   

11.
Summary During an expedition to the high Andes of Southern Peru in June–July 1977, measurements of direct solar radiation in four spectral bands (0.270–0.530–0.630–0.695–2.900 ) were conducted at six sites in elevations ranging from sea level to 5645 m. These measurements were evaluated in Langley plots to determine total optical depths () and irradiances at the top of the atmosphere. In addition, water vapor optical depths (wv) were calculated from the mean radiosounding over Lima during the expedition, and Rayleigh (ray) and ozone (oz) optical depths were obtained from published tabulations. Subtracting ray, oz, and wv from yielded estimates of aerosol optical depth aer. The components ray and oz decrease from the shorter towards the longer wavelength bands and from the lower towards the higher elevation sites; aer also decreases towards the higher elevations. Particularly pronounced is the decrease of aer and from the lowlands of the Pacific coast to the highlands of the interior, reflecting the effect of a persistent lower-tropospheric inversion and the contrast from the marine boundary layer to the clear atmosphere of the high Andes.With 4 Figures  相似文献   

12.
Tropospheric photodissociation rate coefficients (J values) were calculated for NO2, O3, HNO2, CH2O, and CH3CHO using high spectral resolution (0.1 mm wavelength increments), and compared to the J values obtained with numerically degraded resolution (=1, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 nm, and several commonly used nonuniform grids). Depending on the molecule, substantial errors can be introduced by the larger increments. Thus for =10 nm, errors are less than 1% for NO2, less than 2% for HNO2, +6.5% to -16% for CH2O, -6.9% to +24% for CH3CHO, and -24% to +110% for O3. The errors for CH2O arise from the fine structure of its absorption spectrum, and are prevalently negative (underestimate of J). The errors for O3, and to a lesser extent for CH3CHO, arise mainly from under-resolving the overlap of the molecular action spectrum and the tropospheric actinic flux in the wavelength region of stratospheric ozone attenuation. The sign of those errors depends on whether the actinic flux is averaged onto the grid before or after the radiative transfer calculation. In all cases studied, grids with 2 nm produced errors no larger than 5%.  相似文献   

13.
Energy partitioning and evaporation were measured over three wetland surfaces in a subarctic coastal marsh during pre-growing and growing periods. These surfaces included an alder/willow woodland, a sedge marsh and a raised backshore sedge meadow. A combination model analysis was used to assess the relative importance of surface resistance and meteorological conditions on the magnitude of the Bowen ratio, , during the growing period.Overall, the three surfaces experienced important site-to-site and seasonal differences in and evaporation, Q E. During the non-foliated period, Q E was largest and was smallest for the open water marsh, while the dry backshore site experienced the smallest Q E and largest . The non-foliated woodland assumed intermediate values of and Q E. After the vegetation covers were established, the woodland assumed the smallest and largest Q E flux. It was also found that at the marsh site increased with the presence of a vegetation cover.Wind direction was always an important factor in determining Q E and at all sites. was substantially larger and Q E was smaller for onshore winds (i.e., originating from James Bay) than for offshore winds. The combination model analysis showed that canopy resistance at all sites was largest during warm offshore winds, which were associated with large saturation deficits. However, the effect of increased canopy resistance on during offshore winds was offset by a large climatological resistance, resulting in small values and large Q E. When winds originated from James Bay, canopy resistance was smaller than for offshore winds, but the climatological resistance also was much smaller, resulting in larger and small Q E. The results have important implications for changes in land cover and climate on the regional water balance.  相似文献   

14.
The standard deviation of vertical two-point longitudinal velocity fluctuation differences is analyzed experimentally with eleven sets of turbulence measurements obtained at the NASA 150-m ground-winds tower site at Cape Kennedy, Florida. It is concluded that /u *0 is proportional to (fz/u *0)0.22, where the coefficient of proportionality is a function of fz/u *0 and u *0/fL 0. The quantities f and L0 denote the Coriolis parameter and the surface Monin-Obukhov stability length, respectively; u *0 is the surface friction velocity; z is the vertical distance between the two points over which the velocity difference is calculated; and zz is the mean height of the mid-point of the interval z above natural grade. The results of the analysis are valid for 20<-u *0/fL 0<2000.  相似文献   

15.
An E- turbulence model is used to study air-sea interaction characteristics and turbulence structure using a coupled model for air-sea boundary layers. The E- turbulence model consists of equations for the turbulent kinetic energy, the energy-dissipation, and for the turbulent exchange coefficient expressed in terms of turbulent kinetic energy and energy-dissipation. The energy-dissipation equations for the air-sea interface are solved analytically to obtain boundary conditions for energy-dissipation at the interface. The air-sea interaction and turbulence characteristics of the E- model are compared with those of the mixing-length model and with available observations.The simulations demonstrate that the air-sea interaction parameters obtained by the E- model agree well with observations. The numerical studies also show that the E- turbulence model with appropriate constants can give good results in modeling coupled air-sea boundary-layer flows.  相似文献   

16.
Atmospheric samples from savanna burnings were collected in the Ivory Coast during two campaigns in January 1989 and January 1991. About 30 nonmethane hydrocarbons from C2 to C6, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and methane were measured from the background and also at various distances from the burning. Concentrations in the fire plume reached ppmv levels for C2-C4 hydrocarbons, and 5300, 500 and 93 ppmv for CO2, CO and CH4 respectively. The excess in the mixing ratios of these gases above their background level is used to derive emission factors relative to CO and CO2. For the samples collected immediately in the fire plume, a differentiation between high and low combustion efficiency conditions is made by considering the CO/CO2 ratio. Ethene (C2H4), acetylene (C2H2), ethane (C2H6) and propene (C3H6) are the major NMHC produced in the flaming stage, whereas a different pattern with an increasing contribution of alkanes is observed in samples typical of post flaming processes. A strong correlation between methane and carbon monoxide suggests that these compounds are produced during the same stage of the combustion. In samples collected at a distance from the fire and integrated over a period of 30 minutes, the composition is very similar to that of flaming. NMHC/CO2 is of the order of 0.7%, CH4/CO2 of the order of 0.4% and CO/CO2 of the order of 6.3%. From this study, a global production by African savanna fires is derived: 65 Tg of CO-C, 4.2 Tg of CH4-C and 6.7 Tg of NMHC-C. Whereas acetylene can be used as a conservative tracer of the fire plumes, only ethene, propene and butenes can be considered in terms of their direct photochemical impact.  相似文献   

17.
This paper describes the similarity between atmospheric fluctuations of carbon dioxide, water vapor and temperature using data which cover a wide range of instability (0.02 < < 10). The is the Monin-Obukhov stability parameter including the humidity effect.The spectral analysis shows that the coherency between fluctuations of carbon dioxide and water vapor or temperature is very close to unity, and the phase difference is basically out of phase for whole frequency ranges analyzed. The stability dependence of the normalized standard deviation of carbon dioxide is very similar to those of water vapor and temperature. The normalized standard deviation is about 2.5 under near neutral conditions, and it decreases with increasing instability following the -1/3; power law as (-)-1/3. The skewness factors of carbon dioxide, water vapor and temperature show a systematic departure with increasing instabilities for 0.02 < s- < 1, and level off at high instabilities for 1 < -\s < 10. The stability dependence of the flatness factors is not so clear as that noted in the standrard deviation and skewness factors. Dissipation rates of carbon dioxide, water vapor and temperature variance are well related to the spectral peak wavelength. This seems to be real since the local production and local dissipation rates are the main terms, almost balancing one another in the variance budget equations for scalar entities.  相似文献   

18.
Recent works with energy balance climate models and oceanic general circulation models have assessed the potential role of the world ocean for climatic changes on a decadal to secular time scale. This scientific challenge is illustrated by estimating the response of the global temperature to changes in trace gas concentration from the pre-industrial epoch to the middle of the next century. A simple energetic formulation is given to estimate the effect on global equilibrium temperature of a fixed instantaneous radiative forcing and of a time-dependent radiative forcing. An atmospheric energy balance model couple to a box-advection-diffusion ocean model is then used to estimate the past and future global climalic transient response to trace-gas concentration changes. The time-dependent radiative perturbation is estimated from a revised approximate radiative parameterization, and the recent reference set of trace gas scenarios proposed by Wuebbles et al. (1984) are adopted as standard scenarios. Similar computations for the past and future have recently been undertaken by Wigley (1985), but using a purely diffusive ocean and slightly different trace gas scenarios. The skill of the socalled standard experiment is finally assessed by examining the model sensitivity of different parameters such as the equilibrium surface air temperature change for a doubled CO2 concentration [T ae (2×CO2)], the heat exchange with the deeper ocean and the trace gas scenarios. For T ae (2×CO2) between 1 K and 5 K, the following main results are obtained: (i) for a pre-industrial CO2, concentration of 270 ppmv, the surface air warming between 1850 and 1980 ranges between 0.4 and 1.4 K (if a pre-industrial CO2 concentration of 290 ppmv is chosen, the range is between 0.3 and 1 K); (ii) by comparison with the instantaneous equilibrium computations, the deeper ocean inertia induces a delay which amounts to between 6 years [for lower T ae (2×CO2)] and 23 years [for higher Tae(2×CO2)] in 1980; (iii) for the standard future CO2 and other trace gas scenarios of Wuebbles et al., the surface air warming between 1980 and 2050 is calculated to range between 0.9 and 3.4 K, with a delay amounting to between 7 years and 32 years in 2050 when compared to equilibrium computations.  相似文献   

19.
Carbonyl sulfide emissions from biomass burning have been studied during field experiments conducted both in an African savanna area (Ivory Coast) and rice fields, central highland pine forest and savanna areas in Viet-Nam. During these experiments CO2, CO and C2H2 or CH4 have also been also monitored. COS values range from 0.6 ppbv outside the fires to 73 ppbv in the plumes. Significant correlations have been observed between concentrations of COS and CO (R 2=0.92,n=25) and COS and C2H2 (R 2=0.79,n=26) indicating a COS production during the smoldering combustion. COS/CO2 emission factors (COS/CO2) during field experiments ranged from 1.2 to 61×10–6 (11.4×10–6 mean value). COS emission by biomass burning was estimated to be up to 0.05 Tg S/yr in tropics and up to 0.07 Tg S/yr on a global basis, contributing thus about 10% to the global COS flux. Based on the S/C ratio measured in the dry plant biomass and the COS/CO2 emission factor, COS can account for only about 7% of the sulfur emitted in the atmosphere by biomass burning.  相似文献   

20.
Atmospheric oxidation of monoterpenes contributes to formation of tropospheric ozone and secondary organic aerosol, but their products are poorly characterized. In this work, we report a series of outdoor smog chamber experiments to investigate both gaseous and particulate products in the ozone oxidation of four monoterpenes: -pinene, -pinene, 3-carene, and sabinene. More than ten oxygenated products are detected and identified in each monoterpene/O3 reaction by coupling derivatization techniques and GC/MS detection. A denuder/filter pack sampling system is used to separate and simultaneously collect gas and aerosol samples. The identified products, consisting of compounds containing carbonyl, hydroxyl, and carboxyl functional groups, are estimated to account for about 34–50%, 57%, 29–67%, and 24% of the reacted carbon mass for -pinene, sabinene, -pinene, and 3-carene, respectively. The identified individual products account for >83%, 100%, >90%, and 61% of the aerosol mass produced in the ozone reaction of -pinene, sabinene, -pinene, and 3-carene. The uncertainty in the yield data is estimated to be ±50%. Many of the products partition between gas and aerosol phases, and their gas-aerosol partitioning coefficients are determined and reported here. Reaction schemes are suggested to account for the products observed.  相似文献   

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