鲜水河断裂带库仑应力演化与强震间关系

以鲜水河断裂带为研究区,首先验证了该断裂带上1893年以来M6.7以上地震的相互触发作用,然后采用更符合实际的分层黏弹介质模型研究强震震后黏滞松弛引起的库仑应力变化对后续地震的影响,并基于负位错理论计算鲜水河断裂带10个断层段的震间长期构造加载作用引起的断层上的应力积累.在此基础上,讨论同震、震后、震间效应引起的累积库仑应力变化与区域强震活动的关系,给出断层上库仑应力随时间的演化.结果表明,鲜水河断裂带上1893年以来发生的7次强震均在其前面一系列强震及构造应力加载的驱使下发生,同震、震后、震间三方面效应均引起了鲜水河断裂带不可忽略的库仑应力变化.对断层上的库仑应力状态的研究,可进一步为揭示地震的发生规律、找寻危险断层段提供线索.     

川滇菱形块体东边界库仑应力演化及强震发生概率估算

本研究基于分层黏弹介质模型,考虑强震或大地震同震位错、震后黏滞松弛及主断层段震间构造应力加载三方面效应,给出1480年以来,川滇菱形块体东边界鲜水河断裂带、安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂带和小江断裂带共20个断层段由三方面效应引起的累积库仑应力变化随时间的演化,分析强震间相互作用和强震发生的应力累积背景,定性分析各断层段的地震危险性.同时,分别采用现今台网地震目录和川滇菱形块体东边界各断层段强震复发间隔两种资料,定量计算2030年各断层段的强震发生概率;并基于摩擦本构理论,将周边强震引起的库仑应力变化量作为应力扰动,修正强震发生概率的计算结果.各断层段累积库仑应力演化的结果表明,鲜水河断裂带中部八美段、色拉哈段及南部磨西段、安宁河断裂带冕宁-西昌段、小江断裂带北部巧家-东川段和南部建水段的累积库仑应力显著增加.修正的强震发生概率计算结果显示,鲜水河断裂带中部八美-色拉哈-康定一带、安宁河断裂带冕宁-西昌段、小江断裂带南部华宁-建水一带强震发生概率较高,地震危险性值得关注.本研究基于库仑应力演化计算定性分析强震危险性的同时,基于摩擦本构律理论,结合地震引起的应力扰动和强震发生背景,定量计算修正的强震发生概率,为川滇菱形块体东边界强震危险地点及中长期发震紧迫程度判定提供方法和依据.     

龙门山和鲜水河断裂带对区域构造加载作用的动态响应

为了研究汶川地震和鲜水河断裂带上的地震之间是否有触发作用及区域构造加载作用在这些地震发生过程中对应力场的影响.我们以汶川地震和鲜水河断裂带所在区域上的共7次地震为研究对象,区域构造加载作用由GPS速度边界近似,用分裂节点技术模拟上地壳地震的发生,并采用三维黏弹性有限元方法,模拟库仑应力的演化.研究结果表明:鲜水河断裂带上的地震震前积累的库仑应力的17%~38%来自区域构造加载的持续作用,其他的地震形变引起的库仑应力的积累约占49%~67%,故地震触发作用明显(除1948年理塘地震和1973年炉霍地震外);而汶川地震震前1893—1981年发生的地震释放了该区部分库仑应力,不可能对汶川地震有触发作用.汶川地震的库仑应力积累可能主要来自区域构造加载作用,地震发生以后几乎释放了所在区域的所有库仑应力,形成新的格局.     

FEATURES OF EARTHQUAKE CLUSTERING FROM CALCULATION OF COULOMB STRESS AROUND THE BAYAN HAR BLOCK,TIBETAN PLATEAU

Since 1997, several major earthquakes occurred around the Bayan Har block in the Tibetan plateau, providing an opportunity to further understanding the mechanism of intraplate earthquakes. What is the effect of interactions among these events on the earthquake occurrence pattern is an issue to be addressed. In this article, we use the visco-elastic Coulomb stress changes model to calculate the stress interactions among the historical events close to or large than M_S7.0 since 1893 in the Bayan Har block. We apply the relationships between the slip rate and stress accumulation rate to transform the Coulomb stress changes into the influenced time. Then we remove such influence time from the occurrence years, and analyze the effects of the earthquake interactions on the clustering patterns of the historical earthquakes in the Bayan Har block. The results show that the major earthquakes in the Bayan Har block are characterized by a quasi-period of about 16 years from 1893 to 1973 and a clustering occurrence time period from 1997 to present following a relatively long quiescence period. The Bayan Har block is still in the active period with high probabilities of major quakes. We calculate the conditional probabilities of the rupture segments that did not rupture since 1893 of the boundary faults of the Bayan Har block in the next 30 years. The following faults or fault sections seem to be of major risk:The Maqin segment and the Maqu fault of the East Kunlun fault zone, the Awanang fault, the Luocha segment of the Tazhong fault, the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault, and the Dangjiang fault. Other Fault segments in the Bayan Har block without seismic events since 1893 probably also have hazard of M_S7 earthquakes in the future.     

Dynamic simulation of interactions between major earthquakes on the Xianshuihe fault zone

The authors firstly evaluate the strain accumulation rate of the Xianshuihe fault zone based on earth- quake activity. We calculated the stress and seismic moment accumulation rate for each subsection of the Xianshuihe fault zone based on the distribution of geological slip rate and GPS survey results. According to the results, we get the recurrence intervals of characterized earthquakes on each sub- section respectively. A three-dimensional finite element model for western Sichuan is constructed to discuss the earthquakes triggering among major earthquakes (M>6.7) that occurred along the Xianshuihe fault zone since 1893. The calculated Coulomb failure stress changes (ΔCFS) show that 5 of the 6 earthquakes with Ms>6.7 were triggered by positive ΔCFS. The interactions between major earthquakes not only influence recurrence intervals of characterized earthquakes on each subsection, but also change recurrence behavior of major earthquakes along the whole fault zone.     

The Kangding earthquake swarm of November, 2014

There was an earthquake swarm of two major events of MS6.3 and MS5.8 on the Xianshuihe fault in November, 2014. The two major earthquakes are both strike-slip events with aftershock zone along NW direction.We have analyzed the characteristics of this earthquake sequence. The b value and the h value show the significant variations in different periods before and after the MS5.8earthquake. Based on the data of historical earthquakes, we also illustrated the moderate-strong seismic activity on the Xianshuihe fault. The Kangding earthquake swarm manifests the seismic activity on Xianshuihe fault may be in the late seismic active period. The occurrence of the Kangding earthquake may be an adjustment of the strong earthquakes on the Xianshuihe fault. The Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the historical earthquakes were also given in this article. The results indicate that the earthquake swarm was encouraged by the historical earthquakes since1893, especially by the MS7.5 Kangding earthquake in1955. The Coulomb failure stress changes also shows the subsequent MS5.8 earthquake was triggered by the MS6.3earthquake.     

Coulomb constitutive laws for friction: Contrasts in frictional behavior for distributed and localized shear

We describe slip-rate dependent friction laws based on the Coulomb failure criteria. Frictional rate dependence is attributed to a rate dependence of cohesionc and friction angle . We show that differences in the stress states developed during sliding result in different Coulomb friction laws for distributed shear within a thick gouge layer versus localized shear within a narrow shear band or between bare rock surfaces. For shear within gouge, shear strength is given by =c cos + _n sin, whereas for shear between bare rock surfaces the shear strength is =c cos + _n tan, where and _n are shear and normal stress, respectively. In the context of rate-dependent Coulomb friction laws, these differences mean that for a given material and rate dependence of the Coulomb parameters, pervasive shear may exhibit velocity strengthening frictional behavior while localized shear exhibits velocity weakening behavior. We derive from experimental data the slip-rate dependence and evolution ofc and for distributed and localized shear. The data show a positive rate dependence for distributed shear and a negative rate dependence for localized shear, indicating that the rate dependence ofc and are not the same for distributed and localized shear, even after accounting for differences in stress state. Our analysis is consistent with the well-known association of instability with shear localization in simulated fault gouge and the observation that bare rock surfaces exhibit predominantly velocity weakening frictional behavior whereas simulated fault gouge exhibits velocity strengthening followed by a transition to velocity weakening with increasing displacement. Natural faults also exhibit displacement dependent frictional behavior and thus the results may prove useful in understanding the seismic evolution of faulting.     

鲜水河断裂带的应力积累与释放

本文根据历史地震(Ms6.0)的资料,研究了鲜水河断裂带的地震活动性,并利用断层的位错模式进一步研究该断裂带的应力积累和释放过程.结果表明,该断裂带的强震活动大致以道孚为界,形成北西和南东两个活动地段,呈现南北交替活动的特征.地震能量的这种交替释放似具有准周期性质,Ms7.0级地震的平均复发周期为27.6年.给出该断裂带在三个不同时间段(1700-1811,1816-1967,1816-1982)强震断层作用引起的应力释放图象,讨论了前两个时间段地震应力场对其后发生的第一个大地震的重要影响.计算了1893年以来在断裂带南东段(相对闭锁段)的应力积累,示出相应的最大剪应力和流体静应力等值线图.最后,根据应力积累、附加应力变化、地震活动规律和应变释放曲线特征,估计了鲜水河断裂带的地震趋势.认为在本世纪末,在断裂带南东段的(1)康定-磨西段或(2)道孚-乾宁段或(3)乾宁-康定段将可能发生 Ms=7.40.3地震.      

Source characteristics of the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake inferred from teleseismic body waves

We analyzed the broadband body waves of the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake to determine the nature of rupture. The rupture propagation was represented by the distribution of point sources with moment-rate functions at 9 grid points with uniform spacing of 20 km along the fault strike. The moment-rate functions were then parameterized, and the parameters were determined with the least squares method with some constraints. The centroid times of the individual moment-rate functions indicate slow and smooth rupture propagation at a velocity of 1.5 km/s toward NW and 1.0 km/s toward SE. Including a small initial break which precedes the main rupture by about 10 s, we obtained a total source duration of 110 s. The total seismic moment isM _o =3.4×10²⁰ Nm, which is consistent with the value determined from long-period surface waves,M _o =3.7×10²⁰ Nm. The average rise time of dislocation is determined to be 10 s. The major moment release occurred along a fault length of 160 km. With the assumption of a fault widthW=50 km, we obtained the dislocationD=1.3 m. From andD the dislocation velocity isD=D/0.1 m/s, significantly smaller than the typical value for ordinary earthquakes. The stress drop =1.1 MPa is also less than the typical value for subduction zone earthquakes by a factor of 2–3. On the other hand, the apparent stress defined by 2E _s /M _o , where andE _s are respectively the rigidity and the seismic wave energy, is 0.037 MPa, more than an order of magnitude smaller than . The Nicaragua tsunami earthquake is characterized by the following three properties: 1) slow rupture propagation; 2) smooth rupture; 3) slow dislocation motion.     

COULOMB STRESS EVOLUTION AND SEISMIC HAZARD ALONG THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE SICHUAN-YUNNAN BLOCK

Using a more realistic model of multi-layered viscoelastic media, and considering the effects of the coseismic dislocation and the postseismic viscoelastic relaxation caused by the 34 great earthquakes occurring along the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan block since 1480 and the interseismic stress accumulation caused by the tectonic loading generated by plate motions which were modeled by introducing "virtual negative displacements" along the major fault segment in the region under study, we calculated the evolution of the Coulomb stress change in each fault plane of 18 major fault segments along the eastern boundary caused by the coseismic, postseismic and interseismic effects. We studied the interactions of the Xianshuihe, Anninghe, Zemuhe and Xiaojiang fault zones on the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan block. By evaluating if the previous earthquake could bring another earthquake closer to or farther from failure, we analyzed the interactions of the earthquakes which occurred in the different segments in the same fault zone, or in the different fault zones respectively. And further based on the calculation results of the Coulomb stress change on the fault planes, we analyzed the seismic hazard of each fault segment.The results show that the previous earthquake may trigger another earthquake which can occur in the same fault zone or in the different fault zone. And the calculation results on the evolution of the cumulative Coulomb stress change in the each fault segment show that, the Coulomb stress increases significantly in the middle section and the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone, the Mianning-Xichang segment of the Anninghe fault zone, the Qiaojia-dongchuan segment and the Jianshui segment of the Xiaojiang fault zone, and the seismic hazard in these fault segments is worthy paying attention to.     

Rupture zones in the area of the 17.08.99 Izmit (NW Turkey) large earthquake (Mw 7.4) and stress changes caused by its generation

The M_w 7.4 Izmit earthquake of 17 August 1999 struck a part ofthe North Anatolian fault in the area of Izmit Bay (NW Turkey). Historicalinformation shows that the fault which moved during the generation of thisearthquake consists of two fault segments moved during the generation oflarge (M 7) earthquakes in 1719 and 1754, respectively. Since then onlythe central part (between Izmit and Lake Sapanca) of this fault ruptured bythe generation of a smaller shock (M = 6.6) in 1878.The spatial stress variations based on the calculation of changes in theCoulomb Failure Function (CFF) associated with this earthquake aresupported by the distribution of strong aftershock foci. Large positive valuesof CFF to the east and west of the mainshock epicenter are inagreement with the notion that secondary faults were triggered there by thegeneration of the main event. Large positive values of CFF are alsoobserved in the adjacent western fault segment where the 1766 event wasgenerated, evidencing the occurrence of the next strong earthquake in thissegment.     

Comparison of a complex rupture model with the precursor asperities of the 1975 HawaiiM s-7.2 earthquake

A simplified multiple source model was constructed for the 1975 HawaiiM _s=7.2 earthquake by matching synthetic signals with three component accelerograms at two stations located approximately 45 km from the epicenter. Six major subevents were identified and located approximately. The signals of these are larger by factors of 1.4 to 3.2 than that of theM _L=5.9 foreshock which occurred 70 minutes before the main rupture and also triggered the SAM-1 recorders at the two stations. Dividing the rupture length (40 km) by the duration of strong ground shaking ( 50 sec) an, average rupture velocity of 0.8 km/sec (about 25% of S-velocity) is obtained. Thus it is likely that the rupture stopped between subevents. The approximate epicenters of the 6 major subevents, and of the foreshock, support the hypothesis that they were located in high stress asperities which rupture during the main shock, except for the last events which is interpreted as a stopping phase generated at a barrier. These asperities have been previously defined on the basis of differences in the precursor pattern before the mainshock. Thus, it appears that both the details of the precursors and of the main rupture depended critically on the heterogeneous tress distribution in the source volume. This suggests that main rupture initiation points and locations of high rupture accelerations may be identified before the mainshock occurs, based on precursor anomaly patterns. A satisfactory match of synthetic signals with the observations could be obtained only if the aximuth of the fault plane of subevents was rotated from N60°E to N90°E and back to N30°E. These orientations are approximately parallel to the nearest Kilauea rift segments. Hence the slip directions and greatest principal stresses were oriented perpendicular to the rifts everywhere. From this analysis and other work, it is concluded that this fault surface consisted of three types of segments with different strength: hard asperities (radius 5 km), soft but brittle segments between the asperities (radius 5 km), and a viscous half (10×40 km) which slipped during the mainshock, but where microearthquakes and aftershocks are not common.     

Intermediate-term,pre-earthquake phenomena in California, 1975–1986, and preliminary forecast of seismicity for the next decade

Intermediate-term observations preceding earthquakes of magnitude 5.7 or greater in California from 1975 through 1986 suggest that: (1) The sudden appearance of earthquakes in a previously inactive area indicates an increased likelihood of a significant earthquake in that area for a period from days to years; (2) these larger earthquakes tend to occur towards the ends of creeping fault segments; (3) one large earthquake in a region increases the likelihood of a subsequent significant event in the adjacent area; and (4) marginal evidence for the occurrence of a regional deformation event suggests that such events increase the probability of earthquake occurrence throughout the entire area. A common element in many of these observed patterns appears to be the transmission and amplification of tectonic stress changes by the mechanism of fault creep, and suggests that surface fault creep is a sensitive indicator of changes in stress. The preceding critieria are used to construct a preliminary forecast of the likely locations of significant earthquakes over the next decade.     

An experimental study of triggered stick-slip

Stick-slips have been studied in the laboratory on granite, labrodorite and sandstone samples of two different sizes. Different roughness was achieved on the sawcut surfaces by finishing them with different grinding compounds ranging from grit 40 to grit 1000. Stick-slips occurred as a result of 1) slowly increasing the shear and normal stresses, 2) superimposing a sinusoidal stress modulation (0.1 and 10 Hz) on the slowly increasing stresses, 3) triggering by a stress impulse when the shear stress was well below the levels where stick-slips occurred without the impulse, and 4) foreshocks.Stick-slips triggered by impulses or foreshocks occurred long after the beginning of the triggering events, i.e., long in comparison with elastic wave travel times through the sample. All triggered events were very rich in high frequencies (corner frequency of 100 kHz). The untriggered stick-slips did not contain much energy at the high frequencies (corner frequency of 10 kHz). The dynamic friction coefficients for the triggered stick-slips were smaller than for the untriggered events.The long delay between the onset of the trigger and the stick-slip, and the high frequencies may be a consequence of corrosion of asperities. The ultimate triggering and the rate of corrosion are likely related to the interplay of the normal and shear stresses as they load and unload the fault surface. The consistent shape of the high frequency spectra is probably due to sample resonances which are excited rather than being characteristic of the details of the stick-slips. If these laboratory observations are directly applicable to earthquake seismology, the spectra of earthquakes which were triggered by other earthquakes should be anomalously rich in high frequencies.     

Some comparisons between mining-induced and laboratory earthquakes

Although laboratory stick-slip friction experiments have long been regarded as analogs to natural crustal earthquakes, the potential use of laboratory results for understanding the earthquake source mechanism has not been fully exploited because of essential difficulties in relating seismographic data to measurements made in the controlled laboratory environment. Mining-induced earthquakes, however, provide a means of calibrating the seismic data in terms of laboratory results because, in contrast to natural earthquakes, the causative forces as well as the hypocentral conditions are known. A comparison of stick-slip friction events in a large granite sample with mining-induced earthquakes in South Africa and Canada indicates both similarities and differences between the two phenomena. The physics of unstable fault slip appears to be largely the same for both types of events. For example, both laboratory and mining-induced earthquakes have very low seismic efficiencies where _a is the apparent stress and is the average stress acting on the fault plane to cause slip; nearly all of the energy released by faulting is consumed in overcoming friction. In more detail, the mining-induced earthquakes differ from the laboratory events in the behavior of as a function of seismic momentM ₀. Whereas for the laboratory events 0.06 independent ofM ₀, depends quite strongly onM ₀ for each set of induced earthquakes, with 0.06 serving, apparently, as an upper bound. It seems most likely that this observed scaling difference is due to variations in slip distribution over the fault plane. In the laboratory, a stick-slip event entails homogeneous slip over a fault of fixed area. For each set of induced earthquakes, the fault area appears to be approximately fixed but the slip is inhomogeneous due presumably to barriers (zones of no slip) distributed over the fault plane; at constant , larger events correspond to larger _a as a consequence of fewer barriers to slip. If the inequality _a / 0.06 has general validity, then measurements of _a =µE _a /M ₀, where is the modulus of rigidity andE _a is the seismically-radiated energy, can be used to infer the absolute level of deviatoric stress at the hypocenter.     

Source parameters of some large earthquakes in the eastern Mediterranean region based on an itertive maximum entropy technique

TeleseismicP-waves of some large earthquakes that occurred in the eastern Mediterranean region have been analysed by using an iterative maximum entropy technique in order to obtain the independent spectral parameters, the long-period spectral level ₀ and the corner frequencyf ₀ of the far-field displacement spectra.Based on these parameters, the seismic source parameters seismic momentM ₀, source dimensionr, fault lengthl, average displacement u, shear stress drop , radiated energyE _s and apparent stressn are calculated for the considered earthquakes by using Brune's and Madariaga's models.The striking feature of the source parameters obtained in this study is the low stress drop value which varies between 5 and 15 bars. If Madariaga's model had been used, higher stress drop values would have been obtained.The low stress drop earthquakes in the eastern Mediterranean region might be interpreted either by the possible presence of low strength material near the source or by the partial stress drop model.     

STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE ON THE RECURRENCE BEHAVIOR OF MAJOR EARTHQUAKE ON ACTIVE FAULT-TAKING THE MIDDLE-NORTH SECTION OF XIANSHUIHE FAULT AS AN EXAMPLE

It is of great significance to determine the factors and causes that affect the recurrence of major earthquakes. This paper introduces the influence of strong earthquake on the recurrence of major earthquakes according to elastic rebound theory, and then proposes to calculate the impact time Δt respectively from the effect of strong earthquakes on the same and surrounding faults on the major earthquake recurrence by using seismic moment release rate method and Coulomb stress change. In this paper, we studied the change amount of major earthquake recurrence by taking four earthquakes with magnitude greater than 6.5 occurring at different fracture sections of the Xianshuhe fault zone as an example, they occurred on Daofu, Changcu, Zhuwo Fault, respectively. We used seismic moment rate method to calculate the impact time Δt of strong earthquake on the recurrence of major earthquakes on the Daofu-Qianning Fault. We further discussed the effect of the Coulomb stress change due to the interaction between faults on the recurrence of subsequent major earthquakes. The co-seismic and post-seismic Coulomb stress changes caused by strong earthquake on the surrounding faults on the Ganzi-Luhuo Fault are calculated. With the fault interaction considered, the importance of the interaction between faults in the middle-north section of the Xianshuihe fault zone to change the recurrence of large earthquakes is retested and evaluated. The results indicate that the two strong earthquakes occurring along Xianshuihe Fault in 1904(M=7.0) and 1981(M=6.9) resulted in a delay of 80 years and 45 years of major earthquake recurrence on the Daofu-Qianning Fault respectively, and the M7.3 earthquake in 1923 and the M6.8 earthquake in 1967 resulted in an advance of 35 years of major earthquake recurrence on the Ganzi-Luhuo Fault.     

2008年汶川MS8.0地震对周边断层地震活动的影响

为分析2008年5月12日四川汶川M_S8.0级地震对周边断层地震活动的影响,本文首先基于Burgers体黏滞松弛模型计算汶川M_S8.0级地震引起的库仑应力动态演化,分析认为2008年汶川M_S8.0级地震在周边断层上引起的库仑应力显著增加的主要有四个断层段,分别为鲜水河断裂道孚-康定段、东昆仑断裂东段玛曲段、青川断裂和龙门山断裂南段.而且震后4年内黏滞松弛引起的库仑应力变化量可能与同震变化相当,相当于再发生一次汶川地震所造成的影响,因此震后效应在分析强震影响时不应忽略.本文基于强震引起的库仑应力变化动态演化,结合背景地震发生率、由Dieterich(1994)模型给出地震发生概率,结合相关构造地质、历史地震、余震活动等方面资料的综合分析认为,上述4个断裂段地震危险性由高到低依次为鲜水河断裂道孚-康定段、龙门山断裂南段、东昆仑断裂东段玛曲段和青川断裂.     

Static stress changes and fault interaction during the 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence

We study the static stress changes caused by moderatemagnitude earthquakes that occurred in Umbria-Marcheduring a seismic sequence which started on September3, 1997, with a M_L 4.7 foreshock and consisted ofeight earthquakes whose magnitudes range between 5.0and 6.0. The earthquakes occurred on normal faultsstriking in the Apennine direction and dipping at lowangles towards the SW. The goal is to verify if stresschanges induced by each mainshock can explain theoccurrence of subsequent events. Our results show thatthe foreshock slightly increased the Coulomb stress onthe first mainshock fault plane. The distribution ofseismicity that followed the foreshock is clustered inthe area of Coulomb stress increase comprised betweenthe two faults which ruptured in opposite directionsduring the two largest shocks of September 26. Thelocations and the geometry of the three largestearthquakes agree well with the pattern of Coulombstress changes suggesting elastic interaction betweenthese faults. However, we were not able to model thewhole sequence of M_L 5.0 events in terms ofCoulomb stress changes. The difficulties are due tothe similarity of fault plane solutions for eventslocated very close to each other and in the hangingwall of the mainshock rupture planes. Our results showthat normal stress changes agree better with thespatial pattern of the whole sequence of moderatemagnitude events. If previous ruptures unclamp thefault planes of subsequent earthquakes, fluid flow canplay a dominant role in promoting earthquakes duringthe seismic sequence.