Assessing a farmer's decision concerning the application timing of nitrogen fertilizer

This paper is concerned with a farmer's decision on the timing of nitrogen fertilizer application. Analytical models are developed to determine the necessary conditions for the optimal timing of the application of nitrogen fertilizer. The models, coupled with an estimated cotton yield function, are used to assess a farmer's decision on the optimal application timing of nitrogen fertilizer in cotton production. The empirical results explain various observed application timings of nitrogen fertilizer being used in cotton production in Mississippi, USA, and provide an estimate of the cost to a farmer when he or she must comply with a restriction on the timing of the application of nitrogen fertilizer.The views expressed are those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the policies of the US Department of Agriculture or the views of other US Department of Agriculture staff members     

表层岩溶生态系统碳循环特征研究

本文以广西桂林丫吉试验场的实际观测资料为基础,应用同位素示踪方法,探索了整个系统中碳的输入、输出和转移问题,并分析了表层岩溶生态系统中泉水水化学、土壤 CO²浓度及近地表植被层空气中CO²浓度的变化特征。结果显示,泉水水化学主要组分的日变化不明显,而土壤中CO²浓度则明显受日气候变化的影响,两者存在明显的滞后关系。用碳同位素示踪方法,重点对桂林观测站表层生态系统各碳库间碳的转移过程进行了定量研究,认为在有土壤层和植被覆盖的表层岩溶生态系统中,参与岩溶作用的碳有一半以上来源于与生物作用有关的碳。     

Endogenous technological change and pollution abatement

Nonpoint source pollution control is a more complicated process than traditional analysis suggests. Whether a new pollution abatement technology is developed exogenously or endogenously and the per unit reduction in the rate at which a pollutant associated with the use of a factor of production needed to produce an agricultural commodity due to this technology enters the environment are critical factors in the determination of the effects of agricultural production on the pollutant stock. These are the issues addressed here. The optimal current period research and development expenditures on an endogenously induced abatement technology associated with the use of a factor of production giving rise to environmental externalities are shown to be a function of, among other things, the cumulation of all research and development expenditures, the probability of an abatement technology being developed, the level of use of the factor of production, the unit pollution tax on the factor, the rate of time preference (discount rate), the rate at which the pollutant associated with the factor enters the environment, the rate of discharge of the pollutant stock, and so forth. Finally, the analysis demonstrates that a reduction in pollution by the adoption of an abatement technology may lead to an increase in the pollutant stock as a result of endogenous technological change associated with the pollution abatement. When the rate of pollution reduction is greater than a threshold, however, the adoption of an endogenously determined abatement technology will unequivocally lead to a reduction in the pollutant stock.The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the policies of the US Department of Agriculture or the views of other US Department of Agriculture staff members.     

Licensing a geologic repository: Types of uncertainties

This paper provides a summary of the regulatory background for the U.S. geologic repository program, describing the history of the congressional actions that established the program and the allocation of responsibilities within the program. The current status of actions by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to investigate a potential repository site, located at Yucca Mountain in Nye County, Nevada, is then reviewed. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has provided guidance to the DOE for characterizing potential repository sites, and the DOE's approach to implementing that guidance is described. One of the purposes of intensive characterization of a potential repository site is to reduce uncertainties about key aspects of the site that are relevant to protection of public health and safety. However, the link between measurable site characteristics and demonstrations of compliance with regulatory criteria promulgated by the responsible federal agencies are often complex. A discussion of types of uncertainties points out that the potential licensee (DOE) and the regulator (NRC) may have differing views of the nature and importance of uncertainties.     

Modeling households’ decisions on reconstruction of houses damaged by earthquakes––Japanese case study

In this study, households’ decisions on reconstruction of damaged houses were modeled, using questionnaire data in Japan. Characteristics of households’ decisions were investigated using parameter estimation results. The effects of subsidizing policy were evaluated as follows. First, subsidy for rebuilding may be effective for the households whose houses were heavily damaged. Second, there is a possibility that subsidy accelerated rebuilding of houses by the households having children. Third, subsidy for rebuilding may not be effective for elderly people’s households and households in depopulated areas.     

陆面过程模式对不同土壤物理性质的敏感性研究

使用NCAR陆面过程模式（LSM）和荷兰Cabauw1987的大气观测资料，考察了在11种不同的土壤条件下陆面过程模式所模拟的地表能量及水分循环的差异。结果表明，粘土含量较高的土壤具有较好的持水能力，蒸发量和径流量都比较大，而在含砂量高的土壤中，水分大量的下渗，蒸发量和径流量小，从而到地表热通量的分配，在不考虑大气反馈的情况下，各种土壤造成的差异主要出现在春季的4、5月份。     

On knowing what trees to plant: local and expert perspectives in the Western Ghats of Karnataka

This paper investigates the ways in which different groups of people arrive at decisions regarding what tree species to plant. Data is drawn from a case study of afforestation that is taking place under the policy of Joint Forest Planning and Management in the Western Ghats of Karnataka, India. Whilst there is a clear disparity between villager and Forest Department preferences, this difference is not simply a case of Forest Department ‘science’ pitted against villagers’ ‘local knowledge’. On the one hand, both villagers and the Forest Department employ empirical evidence to inform their preferences; on the other hand, decision making goes beyond this, being influenced by a range of institutional and cultural issues. This paper identifies obstacles to a complementary working relationship between local and expert knowledge and considers the resulting management implications.     

美国干热岩"地热能前沿瞭望台研究计划"与中美典型EGS场地勘查现状对比

美国能源部正在实施干热岩“地热能前沿瞭望台研究计划”(FORGE计划)。它是以经典干热岩定义的干热岩勘查开发为约束,通过增强型地热系统(EGS)示范工程建设实践,形成新一代EGS试验平台。美国本着“可复制的结果=巨大的潜力”的理念,实现干热岩勘查开发技术新突破,以满足美国1亿家庭绿色电力供应为实际应用目标。中美典型EGS场地勘查现状对比结果表明：犹他州米尔福德与青海省共和县恰卜恰两个典型EGS场地具可比性,大致处于“并跑”的水平;在天然裂隙系统、原位地应力场、压裂参数获取与压裂方案制定等方面,米尔福德EGS场地有所超前。据此建议有关部门加快青海省共和县恰卜恰EGS场地进入勘查开发阶段,以提高我国干热岩勘查开发技术水平,早日实现EGS工程化。     

Adsorption of copper onto goethite in aqueous systems

The adsorption of copper(II) onto goethite was studied as a function of pH, total dissolved copper concentration, surface area of goethite, and ionic strength. The adsorption of copper was similar to that of other hydrolyzable metals. A tenfold increase in goethite surface area had a significant effect on the adsorption edge, but a tenfold increase in the ionic strength of the medium did not effect the adsorption edge. The distribution coefficients increase sharply with increase in pH and ranged from 10 to 60,000 ml/g over a range of two and half pH units, depending on the goethite surface area and copper concentration. A tenfold decrease in ionic strength as well as a tenfold increase in surface area of goethite did not have any effect on the magnitude of distribution coefficients. Distribution coefficients were used to calculate the number of protons released per mole of copper adsorbed during the adsorption process. The average number of protons released per mole of copper adsorbed was estimated to be 1.40 ± 0.10.Managed by Martin Marietta Energy System, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy under contract no. DE-AC05-840R21400.     

Sediment accumulation in lake chicot,Arkansas

Lake Chicot is an oxbow lake located along the western side of the Mississippi River in southeastern Arkansas. A major flood in 1927, levee construction, land use changes from bottomland hardwood to agriculture, a large increase in drainage area, and stream channelization have altered the appearance of contributing watersheds and the lake. The lake often has high suspended sediment concentrations making it undesirable for recreation and aquatic production. As part of a coordinated study to determine changes in the lake, sediment accumulation patterns and rates were determined in Lake Chicot using the¹³⁷Cs technique. Major sediment accumulation is occurring near the major inlet and along the thalweg of the oxbow. Average sediment accumulation of 1.8 cm/yr since 1963 was measured for twelve samples. Calculations show sediment accumulation is decreasing. This study has shown that the¹³⁷Cs technique can provide useful planning information for the environmental geologist or reservoir manager. Results of the current study will be used to develop better sediment and water management strategies for Lake Chicot. Contribution of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, in cooperation with the Vicksburg District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.     

An evaluation of the undiscovered mineral resources of India based on the concept of unit regional value

Unit regional value (URV) and unit regional weight (URW) are relatively new concepts which are used to measure the intensity of the development of the mineral resources of any particular region. URV and URW of the mineral resources of India have been evaluated by sector, by commodity, as well as by state. The results are compared with values for the U.S.A. established by earlier workers and which can be taken as a standard for comparison with the mineral resources of other regions. URV of India, evaluated through the years 1898–1985, shows that the total mineral resources produced stands at $24.4 billion U.S. (deflated to 1967 value). Log URV of India lies below one standard deviation of the value for the states of the U.S. Like the U.S. India's major contribution to its URV is from fuels, but it is much less compared to that of the U.S. Next to fuels, metals, nonmetals, construction materials, and precious materials follow in that order. Except for two states, viz. Bihar and West Bengal, all other states are just below two standard deviations of the states of the U.S. The state of J&K is even much lower than the two standard deviations mark. It is concluded that India has a high potential for undiscovered mineral resources. However, this will require a large investment in exploration, on the order of Rs. 7760 crores, in the next few years.     

The role of science in federal policy development on a regional to global scale: Personal commentary

Nutrient enrichment of coastal waters is an example of the large-scale, highly complex environmental challenges facing decision makers today. Conventional monitoring networks and advanced observational capabilities permit the detection of changes in the environment at continental to global scales (e.g., hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico, aerosol plumes stretching across the ocean, global atmospheric enrichment of carbon dioxide). Much more knowledge is needed, however, to fully understand the societal consequences of environmental change and of actions taken to address them. This paper discusses the emerging role of assessment in developing effective U.S. policy responses to large-scale, complex environmental change while improving the scientific understanding of the problem. In the cases of global climate change and coastal hypoxia, the U.S. Congress passed legislation authorizing assessments recognizing that decision making must proceed in the face of scientific uncertainty. Evaluating the state of knowledge is usually the first step in an assessment in order to provide a picture of what is known and where there are knowledge gaps. Assessments should also provide the policy maker with an idea of the level of uncertainty, how long it may take to reduce the uncertainty, what information is most critical to resolve, and the consequences and benefits of the various management options. In this paper I draw upon several examples from national assessments, including those of climate change impacts on the U.S. and relationships between Mississippi River water and Gulf of Mexico water quality, to illustrate the strengths and difficulties of using science and assessment to inform the policy process.     

An inexpensive sampler for obtaining bulk sediment cores

A large-volume core sampler for sediment—muck substrates is described. The sampler can acquire a discrete sediment core of 10 cm in diameter and up to 1.5 m long. Such samplers are needed to collect the volume necessary for analysis of sediments for contaminants, bulk density, or radioactive dating. The sampler consists of a 1- to 2-m length of PVC pipe mounted below a threaded metal pipe air exhaust—intake assembly. This assembly is quick-connected to standard threaded lengths (300 cm) of water pipe (2 cm diam) or electrical conduit so that bottom sediments in water depths of up to 10 m can be sampled. The core sampler is hand-operated and pushed into bottom sediments from a boat. It does not have to be triggered remotely because of the one-way modified check valve in the air exhaust—intake assembly. After the sampler is extracted from the sediment, the extension handle can be quickly removed for ease of sampler handling, and the core can be extruded from the PVC tube by air pressure.Contribution of the National Sedimentation Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Oxford, Mississippi 38655, U.S.A.     

Determination of site-specific soil-water characteristic curve from a limited number of test data— A Bayesian perspective

Determining soilewater characteristic curve(SWCC) at a site is an essential step for implementing unsaturated soil mechanics in geotechnical engineering practice, which can be measured directly through various in-situ and/or laboratory tests. Such direct measurements are, however, costly and timeconsuming due to high standards for equipment and procedural control and limits in testing apparatus. As a result, only a limited number of data points(e.g., volumetric water content vs. matric suction)on SWCC at some values of matric suction are obtained in practice. How to use a limited number of data points to estimate the site-specific SWCC and to quantify the uncertainty(or degrees-of-belief) in the estimated SWCC remains a challenging task. This paper proposes a Bayesian approach to determine a site-specific SWCC based on a limited number of test data and prior knowledge(e.g., engineering experience and judgment). The proposed Bayesian approach quantifies the degrees-of-belief on the estimated SWCC according to site-specific test data and prior knowledge, and simultaneously selects a suitable SWCC model from a number of candidates based on the probability logic. To address computational issues involved in Bayesian analyses, Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation(MCMCS), specifically Metropolis-Hastings(M-H) algorithm, is used to solve the posterior distribution of SWCC model parameters, and Gaussian copula is applied to evaluating model evidence based on MCMCS samples for selecting the most probable SWCC model from a pool of candidates. This removes one key limitation of the M-H algorithm, making it feasible in Bayesian model selection problems. The proposed approach is illustrated using real data in Unsaturated Soil Database(UNSODA) developed by U.S. Department of Agriculture. It is shown that the proposed approach properly estimates the SWCC based on a limited number of site-specific test data and prior knowledge, and reflects the degrees-of-belief on the estimated SWCC in a rational and quantitative manner.     

A watershed perspective on nutrient enrichment,science, and policy in the Patuxent River,Maryland: 1960–2000

The Patuxent River, Maryland, is a nutrient-overenriched tributary of the Chesapeake Bay. Nutrient inputs from sewage outfalls and nonpoint sources (NPS) have grown substantially during the last four decades, and chlorophylla levels have increased markedly with concomitant reductions in water quality and dissolved oxygen concentrations. The Patuxent has gained national attention because it was one of the first river basins in the U.S. for which basin-wide nutrient control standards were developed. These included a reduction in NPS inputs and a limit on both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loadings in sewage discharges intended to return the river to 1950s conditions. Full implementation of point source controls occurred by 1994, but population growth and land-use changes continue to increase total nutrient loadings to the river. The present paper provides the perspectives of scientists who participated in studies of the Patuxent River and its estuary over the last three decades, and who interacted with policy makers as decisions were made to develop a dual nutrient control strategy. Although nutrient control measures have not yet resulted in dramatic increases in water quality, we believe that without them, more extensive declines in water quality would have occurred. Future reductions will have to come from more effective NPS controls since future point source loading will be difficult to further reduce with present technology. Changing land use will present a challenge to policy makers faced with sprawling population growth and accelerated deforestation.     

Practical visualization of rock structure

The conventionally applied method for visualizing the structure of a rock mass is limited to plotting the orientation of individual discontinuities by using the Schmidt stereographic net. Their spacing is not illustrated and other structural features, such as undulation and twisting, cannot be interpreted from such sterographic views. A new mode of visual presentation of rock structural features of one or several different types in rock volumes of any size that makes all this possible is proposed in the present report. The primary purpose is to quantify, for all elements of a rock mass where the structure has been evaluated by borehole investigations or mapping in the course of underground excavation, the orientation and average spacing of defined discontinuities like hydraulically and mechanically active fractures. These local structural patterns, which are plotted on three of the six faces of cubical boxes with defined edge length and with one edge oriented N−S can be combined by applying the mathematical tool for connecting faces with which certain visualization codes like Alias Sketch are equipped. This combines different local rock structures to form regional patterns that can reveal undulation and twisting and important variations in spacing of major discrete discontinuities. Visualization can be given in true perspective or orthographic form and larger discontinuities that have been identified in the field, such as fracture zones, can be introduced in the model for correlation with smaller features. Furthermore, the stress situation at all sites where rock stress measurements have been made can be visualized in the model in the form of principal planes. The proposed models can be visualized from any “camera angle” and also shown in Quick Time VR form, i.e. as being slowly rotated around any predetermined axis. This facilitates definition and selection of the rock structure, local or regional, for numerical calculations.     

Structure and metamorphism of the Gondwanan basement in the Bariloche region (North Patagonian Argentine Andes)

In the Bariloche region, the Gondwanan basement consists of metamorphic and deformed igneous rocks intruded by Mesozoic and Tertiary granitoids. Metasediments and amphibolites have been affected by three main deformation events (D1, D2 and D3). D1 (S1 foliation) is well shown preserved in the microlithons of the S2 regional foliation and in albite and garnet porphyroblasts. Both foliations have been folded by upright open folds with associated crenulation (S3) locally developed in the D3 folds hinge zones. An early-stage (syn-D1) subduction episode can be invoked based on evidence of high pressure (HP) metamorphism in schists and amphibolites as well as on the presence of pre-collisional I-type granitoids. D2–D3 developed under regional intermediate pressure–low pressure (IP–LP) metamorphic conditions. High temperature (HT) conditions were reached, as deduced from regional migmatization and the intrusion of syn- to late-orogenic S-type granitoids. The transition from HP to IP metamorphic conditions could be associated with the emplacement of NE directed crustal-scale thrusts during D2.     

Rural organizational impacts,mitigation strategies,and resilience to the 2010 Darfield earthquake,New Zealand

A methodology for evaluating real-time optimal reservoir releases under flooding conditions that minimizes flood damages for a river-reservoir system is described in this paper. The problem is formulated as a discrete-time optimal control problem in which reservoir releases are the control variables, and water surface elevations and discharges are the state variables. Constraints imposed on the reservoir’s water surface elevations and reservoir releases to the downstream reaches are incorporated into an objective function using a penalty function method. The optimal control model consists of the two primary interfaced components: (1) the U.S. Geological Survey Full EQuation routing model to simulate the unsteady flow dynamics of the river-reservoir system and (2) an optimization technique, simulated annealing that optimizes reservoir releases (flood control gate operations) subject to system constraints. The model solves an augmented control problem. The model was applied to the river-reservoir system of Lake Travis on the Lower Colorado River in Texas. The model application to Lake Travis revealed the usefulness of the model in improving a given operation policy, regardless of the type objective function (linear or nonlinear). The methodology and the operation model developed here are unique since they can be applied to any river-reservoir system, do not require simplification of nonlinearities, and guarantee the determination of an optimal or near-global optima.     

Climate and high-yielding variety wheat yield

Objective statistical methods were used to determine the overall climatic sensitivity of wheat yields in Sonora, Mexico and the Southern United States Great Plains. The major differences between the two cultures can ultimately be ascribed to ‘genetic’ factors. The research was conducted to determine if the high-yielding variety (HYV) package is more sensitive to climatic fluctuation than the more traditional U.S. regime. Improved design Thompson-type models were developed for both areas, and were accepted as valid after tests on independent data. Both models had an rms error of 7% of the mid-1970s yields, when run on data withheld from the original specification. After validification, a series of sub-models were constructed that use successively less of the 1970s and 1960s data. Doing this corresponds to a removal of more and more HYV years from the Sonora model, while a similar period of increase (though non-HYV) is modeled in the U.S.A. The magnitudes of the regression coefficients of the most important climatic determinants of yield were then examined for significant changes. Yield sensitivities were found to increase approximately 300% in the Sonora model, while the results for the U. S. A. are more equivocal. The nature of the two agricultural packages suggest that the differences are ultimately ‘genetically’ related, and stem from changes in cultural practice related to the dwarfing gene. Because of physical limitations on the Sonora irrigation system, it is unlikely there will be an environmental remedy for this problem in the near future. The results suggest that it would be judicious to promote an increased wheat reserve policy, particularly as population climbs in countries adopting the HYV package. However, no formula for doing this while maintaining an adequate price structure is supplied here.     

Sources of nutrient pollution to coastal waters in the United States: Implications for achieving coastal water quality goals

Some 60% of coastal rivers and bays in the U.S. have been moderately to severely degraded by nutrient pollution. Both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) contribute to the problem, although for most coastal systems N additions cause more damage. Globally, human activity has increased the flux of N and P from land to the oceans by 2-fold and 3-fold, respectively. For N, much of this increase has occurred over the past 40 years, with the increase varying by region. Human activity has increased the flux of N in the Mississippi River basin by 4-fold, in the rivers of the northeastern U.S. by 8-fold, and in the rivers draining to the North Sea by more than 10-fold. The sources of nutrients to the coast vary. For some estuaries, sewage treatment plants are the largest single input; for most systems nonpoint sources of nutrients are now of relatively greater importance, both because of improved point source treatment and control (particularly for P) and because of increases in the total magnitude of nonpoint sources (particularly for N) over the past three decades. For P, agricultural activities dominate nonpoint source fluxes. Agriculture is also the major source of N in many systems, including the flux of N down the Mississippi River, which has contributed to the large hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico. For both P and N, agriculture contributes to nonpoint source pollution both through losses at the field scale, as soils erode away and fertilizer is leached to surface and ground waters, and from losses from animal feedlot operations. In the U.S. N from animal wastes that leaks directly to surface waters or is volatilized to the atmosphere as ammonia may be the single largest source of N that moves from agricultural operations into coastal waters. In some regions, including the northeastern U.S., atmospheric deposition of oxidized N from fossil-fuel combustion is the major flux from nonpoint sources. This atmospheric component of the N flux into estuaries has often been underestimated, particularly with respect to deposition onto the terrestrial landscape with subsequent export downstream. Because the relative importance of these nutrient sources varies among regions and sites, so too must appropriate and effective mitigation strategies. The regional nature and variability of nutrient sources require that nutrient management efforts address large geographic areas.