Long-term trends and regime shifts in sea surface temperature on the continental shelf of the northeast United States

We investigated sea surface temperature (SST) variability over large spatial and temporal scales for the continental shelf region located off the northeast coast of the United States between Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and the Gulf of Maine using the extended reconstruction sea surface temperature (ERSST) dataset. The ERSST dataset consists of 2°×2° (latitude and longitude) monthly mean values computed from in situ data derived from the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS). Nineteen 2°×2° bins were chosen that cover the shelf region of interest between the years of 1854 and 2005. Mean annual and range of SST were examined using dynamic factor analysis to estimate trends in both parameters, while chronological clustering was used to determine temporal SST patterns and breakpoints in the time series that are believed to signal regime shifts in SST. Both SST and SST trend analysis show that interannual variability of SST fluctuations shows strong coherence between bins, with declining SST at the beginning of the last century, followed by increasing SST through 1950, and then rapidly decreasing between 1950 and mid-1960s, with somewhat warmer SST thereafter to present. Annual SST range decreases in a seaward direction for all bins, with strong coherence for interannual variability of range fluctuations between bins. The trend in SST range shows a decreasing range at the beginning of the last century followed by an increase in range from 1920 to the late-1980s, remaining high through present with some spatial variability. A more detailed spatial analysis was conducted by grouping the data into 7 regions using principal component analysis. We analyzed regional trends in mean annual SST, seasonal SST range (summer SST−winter SST), and normalized SST minima and maxima. Both the summer and winter seasons were also analyzed using the length of each season and amplitude of the warming and cooling season, respectively, along with the spring warming and fall cooling rates. Trends in all of the parameters were examined after low-pass filtering using a 10-point convolution filter (n=10 years) and regime shifts were identified using the sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts (STARS) method. The analysis shows some difference between regions in the timing of minimum SST with minima being reached 1 month earlier in the south (February) relative to more northern regions (March). Regional annual SST range decreased in a seaward direction. Amplitude of summer warming and the length of summer have shown fluctuations with recent years showing stronger warming and longer summers but generally not exceeding past levels. Overall, the difference in SST range, with recent larger values may be the most significant finding of this work. SST range changes have the potential to disrupt species important to local fisheries due to combinations of differing temperature tolerances, changes in reproduction potential, and changes in the distributional range of species.     

Coastal upwelling along the north coast of Papua New Guinea and El Niño events during 1981–2005

We investigate the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) cooling and upwelling along Papua New Guinea’s (PNG) north coast before the onset of El Niño events using a hindcast experiment with a high-resolution ocean general circulation model. Coastal upwelling and related SST cooling appear along PNG north coast during the boreal winter before the onsets of six El Niño events occurring during 1981–2005. Relatively cool SSTs appear along PNG north coast during that time, when anomalous northwesterly surface wind stress, which can cause coastal upwelling by offshore Ekman transport appearing over the region. In addition, anomalous cooling tendencies of SST are observed, accompanying anomalous upward velocities at the base of the mixed layer and shallow anomalies of 27°C isotherm depth. It is also shown that entrainment cooling plays an important role in the cooling of the mixed layer temperature in this region.     

A Comparison Study Between Spring and Summer Fogs in the Yellow Sea-Observations and Mechanisms

New observations from buoys and soundings reveal the discrepancies in air–sea interface and in vertical structures between spring (April to May) and summer (July) fogs in the Yellow Sea. Spring fogs are shallow with a robust temperature inversion, dry layer and cold phase (surface air temperature or SAT is lower than sea surface temperature or SST); summer fogs are deep with weaker stability, indistinct fog top and warm phase (SAT?>?SST). Along with numerical simulations, conceptual models for the mechanisms of temperature inversion are suggested. The land–sea contrast is responsible for the robust temperature inversion in spring, and the deep southerlies derived from the east Asian summer monsoon and the adiabatic sinking from the western Pacific subtropical high contributes to the weaker inversion in summer. The dry layer above the sea fog top intensifies the longwave radiative cooling effect to lead to the cold phase in spring fogs. The radiative cooling is weaker in summer fogs resulting in SAT?>?SST.     

An anomalous cooling event observed in the Bay of Bengal during June 2009

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) has the potential to trigger deep moist convection thereby affecting the active-break cycle of the monsoons. Normally, during the summer monsoon season, SST over the BoB is observed to be greater than 28°C which is a pre-requisite for convection. During June 2009, satellite observations revealed an anomalous basin-wide cooling and the month is noted for reduced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. In this study, we analyze the likely mechanisms of this cooling event using both satellite and moored buoy observations. Observations showed deepened mixed layer, stronger surface currents, and enhanced heat loss at the surface in the BoB. Mixed layer heat balance analysis is carried out to resolve the relative importance of various processes involved. We show that the cooling event is primarily induced by the heat losses at the surface resulting from the strong wind anomalies, and advection and vertical entrainment playing secondary roles.     

Coastal and oceanic SST variability along the western Iberian Peninsula

The inter-annual variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) was analyzed along the western Iberian Peninsula in the region ranging from 9.5 °W to 21.5 °W and from 37.5 °N to 42.5 °N with a spatial resolution of 1°×1° from 1900 to 2008. Both coastal and oceanic SST showed an overall increase with warming and cooling cycles similar to those observed in the North Atlantic region and in previous regional studies. In addition, the evolution of coastal and ocean water has been observed to be different. In general, ocean water is more affected by the different warming–cooling cycles than coastal water. In spite of coast and ocean are highly influenced by global changes affecting the whole North Atlantic region, near shore SST has been observed to be correlated with local wind regime, which is itself a manifestation of the Eastern Atlantic (EA) teleconnection pattern.     

Typhoon-induced ocean responses off the southwest coast of Taiwan

Typhoons can cause substantial sea surface cooling (typically 2–4 °C), which is usually biased to the right side of the storm track. Under influence of the complex bathymetry of the southern Taiwan Strait (TS), two types of sea surface temperature (SST) response, cooling and warming, each associated with a different type of typhoon track were identified using satellite and mooring observations. When a typhoon moved westward (or northwestward) and passed through the TS (track A), the SST cooling in the TS was biased toward the left of the storm track. Numerical model results indicated that in track A, strong wind stress accelerates the flow east of the Taiwan Banks and drove the bottom flow to uplift due to the topography. Moreover, both wind stress and wind stress curl enhanced the Luzon loop. After the typhoon passed, the mean circulation was modified around strong cooling in the southern TS, causing more South China Sea surface water to be distributed to the Kuroshio region. However, when a typhoon moved westward (or northwestward) and passed south of the TS, SST warming was induced in the southern TS (track B). The model results indicated that when the typhoon passed to the south of the TS, the typhoon-induced horizontal divergent flow travelled to the north, where it encountered the shallower shelf of the TS that was confined to the water, causing warm water transported into this area to accumulate and downwelling to occur. This can be regarded as redistributing the heat content in the shelf area. After the typhoon, the thickened mixed layer resulting from downwelling prevented the formation of near-inertial waves and reduced the vertical mixing.     

Tropical Indian Ocean Basin Mode recorded in coral oxygen isotope data from the Seychelles over the past 148 years

The tropical Indian Ocean(TIO) displays a uniform basin-wide warming or cooling in sea surface temperature(SST) during the decay year of El Niδo-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events. This warming or cooling is called the tropical Indian Ocean Basin Mode(IOBM). Recent studies showed that the IOBM dominates the interannual variability of the TIO SST and has impacts on the tropical climate from the TIO to the western Pacific. Analyses on a 148-year-long monthly coral δ 18 O record from the Seychelles Islands demonstrate that the Seychelles coral δ 18 O not only is associated with the local SST but also indicates the interannul variability of the basin-wide SST in the TIO. Moreover, the Seychelles coral δ 18 O shows a dominant period of 3–7 years that well represents the variability of the IOBM, which in return is modulated by the inter-decadal climate variability. The correlation between the Seychelles coral δ 18 O and the SST reveals that the coral δ 18 O lags the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific by five months and reaches its peak in the spring following the mature phase of ENSO. The spatial pattern of the first EOF mode indicates that the Seychelles Islands are located at the crucial place of the IOBM. Thus, the Seychelles coral δ 18 O could be used as a proxy of the IOBM to investigate the ENSO teleconnection on the TIO in terms of long-time climate variability.     

Satellite-derived variability of the Aegean Sea ecohydrodynamics

Eight years of AVHRR-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and SeaWiFS-derived surface chlorophyll (Chl) data (1998–2005) are used to investigate key processes affecting the spatial and temporal variability of the two parameters in the Aegean Sea. Seasonal mean SST and Chl maps are constructed using daily data to study seasonal dynamics whereas empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlational analysis is applied to the 8-day composite SST and Chl anomaly time-series in order to study the variability and co-variability of the two parameters from subseasonal to interannual time-scales. The seasonal mean fields show that Black Sea cold and chlorophyll-rich waters enter through the Dardanelles Strait and they are accumulated in the north-eastern part of the Aegean Sea, steered by the Samothraki anticyclone. Large chlorophyll concentrations are encountered in the hydrological front off the Dardanelles Strait as well as in coastal areas affected by large riverine/anthropogenic nutrient loads. The SST seasonal mean patterns reveal strong cooling that is associated with upwelling along the eastern boundary of the basin during summer due to strong northerly winds, a process which is not present in the surface chlorophyll climatology. The Chl dataset presents much stronger sub-seasonal variability than SST, with large variations in the phase and strength of the phytoplankton seasonal cycles. EOF analysis of the anomaly time-series shows that SST non-seasonal variability is controlled by synoptic weather variations and anomalies in the north–south wind-stress component regulating the summer coastal upwelling regime. Mean SST and Chl patterns, and their associated variations, are not closely linked implying that Black Sea and riverine inputs mainly control the intra-annual and interannual variability of the surface chlorophyll in the Aegean Sea rather than mixing and/or upwelling processes.     

Parameterization of typhoon-induced ocean cooling using temperature equation and machine learning algorithms: an example of typhoon Soulik (2013)

This study proposed three algorithms that can potentially be used to provide sea surface temperature (SST) conditions for typhoon prediction models. Different from traditional data assimilation approaches, which provide prescribed initial/boundary conditions, our proposed algorithms aim to resolve a flow-dependent SST feedback between growing typhoons and oceans in the future time. Two of these algorithms are based on linear temperature equations (TE-based), and the other is based on an innovative technique involving machine learning (ML-based). The algorithms are then implemented into a Weather Research and Forecasting model for the simulation of typhoon to assess their effectiveness, and the results show significant improvement in simulated storm intensities by including ocean cooling feedback. The TE-based algorithm I considers wind-induced ocean vertical mixing and upwelling processes only, and thus obtained a synoptic and relatively smooth sea surface temperature cooling. The TE-based algorithm II incorporates not only typhoon winds but also ocean information, and thus resolves more cooling features. The ML-based algorithm is based on a neural network, consisting of multiple layers of input variables and neurons, and produces the best estimate of the cooling structure, in terms of its amplitude and position. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the typhoon-induced ocean cooling is a nonlinear process involving interactions of multiple atmospheric and oceanic variables. Therefore, with an appropriate selection of input variables and neuron sizes, the ML-based algorithm appears to be more efficient in prognosing the typhoon-induced ocean cooling and in predicting typhoon intensity than those algorithms based on linear regression methods.     

Trends and anomalies in sea-surface temperature,observed over the last 60 years,within the southeastern Bay of Biscay

The Oceanographic Society of Gipuzkoa has recorded daily sea-surface temperature (SST) measurements, since 2nd July 1946, on a (nearly) daily basis. Sixty years of SST measurements (1947–2007) have been considered, in order to analyse the hydrographic trends and anomalies at the southeastern Bay of Biscay. The study reviews initially the consistency and reliability of the time-series; and trends and anomaly patterns. Then, the periodicity of the series; a reference period, for analysing seasonality during the period 2001–2007; and oceano-meteorological coupling within the period 2001–2007, with reference to the baseline period, have been determined. Within this context, a slight cooling trend has been observed for the whole of the time-series, in contrast to the warming over the last three-decadal period. Regarding the periodicity of the series, several cycles have been identified, with periods of about 8, 11 and 18 years; these represent the influence of climate cycles over the (local) SST series. Additionally, seasonal anomaly patterns between 2001 and 2007 have been examined based upon the selected reference period (1980–2002). Several extreme seasonal events have been observed, such as warm summer SST values in 2003 and 2006 and cold winter values in 2005. Such events can be explained by the “deseasonality” phenomenon, observed throughout the study period. In addition to the direct influence of atmospherical parameters, such as air temperature and irradiance on SST, dynamical variables (turbulence and upwelling–downwelling) account also for this coupling. Overall, despite the marginal location and surface character of the time-series, it reveals anomalies that agree with those described for larger zones of the northeastern Atlantic Ocean; hence, it can be characterised as being a reliable and representative long-term SST series.     

Ocean response to typhoon Nuri (2008) in western Pacific and South China Sea

Typhoon Nuri formed on 18 August 2008 in the western North Pacific east of the Philippines and traversed northwestward over the Kuroshio in the Luzon Strait where it intensified to a category 3 typhoon. The storm weakened as it passed over South China Sea (SCS) and made landfall in Hong Kong as a category 1 typhoon on 22 August. Despite the storm’s modest strength, the change in typhoon Nuri’s intensity was unique in that it strongly depended on the upper ocean. This study examines the ocean response to typhoon Nuri using the Princeton Ocean Model. An ocean state accounting for the sea-surface temperature (SST) and mesoscale eddy field prior to Nuri was constructed by assimilating satellite SST and altimetry data 12 days before the storm. The simulation then continued without further data assimilation, so that the ocean response to the strong wind can be used to understand processes. It is found that the SST cooling was biased to the right of the storm’s track due to inertial currents that rotated in the same sense as the wind vector, as has previously been found in the literature. However, despite the comparable wind speeds while the storm was in western Pacific and SCS, the SST cooling was much more intense in SCS. The reason was because in SCS, the surface layer was thinner, the vorticity field of the Kuroshio was cyclonic, and moreover a combination of larger Coriolis frequency as the storm moved northward and the typhoon’s slower translational speed produced a stronger resonance between wind and current, resulting in strong shears and entrainment of cool subsurface waters in the upper ocean.     

Air-sea Coupling During the Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean: A Case Study Using Satellite Observations

In the years 1999 and 2001, three intense tropical cyclones formed over the northern Indian Ocean—two over the Bay of Bengal during 15–19 and 25–29 October, 1999 and one over the Arabian Sea during 21–28 May, 2001. We examined the thermal, salinity and circulation responses at the sea surface due to these severe cyclones in order to understand the air-sea coupling using data from satellite measurements and model simulations. It is found that the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) cooled by about 0.5 °–0.8 °C in the Bay of Bengal and 2 °C in the Arabian Sea. In the Bay of Bengal, this cooling took place beneath the cyclone center whereas in the Arabian Sea, the cooling occurred behind the cyclone only a few days later. This contrasting oceanic response resulted mainly from the salinity stratification in the Bay of Bengal and thermal stratification in the Arabian Sea and the associated mixing processes. In particular, the cyclones moved over the region of low salinity and smaller mixed layer depth with a distinct mixed layer deepening to the left side of the cyclone track. It is envisaged that daily satellite estimates of SST and Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) using Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and model simulated mixed layer depth would be useful for the study of tropical cyclones and prediction of their path over the northern Indian Ocean.     

Present warming within the context of cooling–warming cycles observed since 1854 in the Bay of Biscay

The warming trend observed during the last decades in the Bay of Biscay is put within the context of sea surface temperature (SST) changes observed in the area since 1854. Macroscopically, two consecutive warming–cooling cycles were detected during this period of time: cooling from 1867 to 1910; warming from 1910 to 1945; cooling from 1945 to 1974; and warming from 1974 to nowadays. Warming rates of 0.17 and 0.22 °C per decade were measured during the warming sub-periods and cooling rates of ?0.14 and ?0.10 °C per decade were measured during the cooling sub-periods. The present warming period is on the same order of magnitude although slightly more intense than the one observed from 1910 to 1945, which is consistent with previous analysis carried for the North Atlantic. Finally, the thermal amplitude defined as the difference between the maximum and minimum annual values has increased since 1974 at a rate of 0.06 °C per decade due to the different increasing rates of the maximum (0.26 °C per decade) and minimum (0.20 °C per decade) SSTs.     

Patterns of sea surface temperature variability on seasonal to sub-annual scales at and offshore the Río de la Plata estuary

SST variability on seasonal to sub-annual scales in the coastal region of South America between 30° and 39°S, largely influenced by the Rio de la Plata estuary’s plume, and its relation to wind variability are explored. Data are six years of daily ensembles of gridded satellite SST and sea surface winds with spatial resolutions of about 11 and 25 km, respectively. Observations from oceanographic cruises are used to validate the results. It is found that the seasonal cycle can be explained in terms of two modes. The first one, characterizing fall-early winter/spring-early summer, is related to the radiative cycle. The second one, corresponding to late summer and winter, displays warm/cold anomalies along the Uruguayan coast forced by the prevailing winds during those seasons. In the upper estuary and the northern part of the area of influence of the freshwater plume, variability in sub-annual scales is significant. A large portion of this variance is related to zonal wind anomalies that force warm/cold SSTs along that coast. Cold anomalies of up to −5 °C occur under anomalously intense easterly winds, indicating upwelling. These events are very frequent and show large persistence, occurring up to one and a half months. They also display a marked seasonal cycle – being more frequent in late spring and summer – large inter-annual variability and seem to be modulated by the continental runoff. When discharge is low, the freshwater plume retracts to the west, reducing the inner-shelf stratification and increasing the likelihood of a full upwelling to the surface. In winter, short time-scale SST variability is mostly due to variability in the atmospheric cold fronts crossing the region. Weaker or less frequent (stronger or more frequent) fronts produce a generalized warming (cooling) over the region. As the estuary heats (colds) faster than the shelf, a warm (cold) anomaly develops in the upper Río de la Plata. On inter-annual time scales, probably because ENSO activity was weak during the studied period, SST variability was not important.     

An abrupt cooling event early in the last interglacial in the northern South China Sea

The high-resolution quantitative analysis of the planktonic foraminifera and the δ¹⁸O records of the section between 96.49– 137.6 mcd at ODP Site 1144 on the continental slope of northern South China Sea reveals an abrupt cooling event of sea surface temperature (SST) during the last interglacial (MIS 5.5, i.e. 5e). The dropping range of the winter SST may come to 7.5°C corresponding to 1.2‰ of the δ¹⁸O value of sea surface water. This event is comparable with those discovered in the west Europe and the northern Atlantic Ocean, but expressed in a more intensive way. It is inferred that this event may have been induced by middle- to low-latitude processes rather than by polar ice sheet change. Since the Kuroshio-index speciesPulleniatina obliquiloculata displayed the most distinct change at the event, it may also be related to the paleoceanographic change of the low-latitude area in the western Pacific Ocean. This event can be considered as one of “Younger Dryas-style coolings” and is indicative of climate variability of the last interglacial stage.     

Validation of AVHRR and TMI-derived sea surface temperature in the northern South China Sea

Satellite-derived SSTs are validated in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) using in situ SSTs from the drifting buoys and well-calibrated sensors installed on Research/Vessel(R/V) Shiyan 3. The satellite SSTs are Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) daytime SST, AVHRR nighttime SST, Tropical rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI) daytime SST and TMI nighttime SST. Availability of satellite SST, which is the ratio that the number of available satellite SST to the total ocean pixels in NSCS is calculated; annual average SST availabilities of AVHRR daytime SST, AVHRR nighttime SST, TMI daytime SST and TMI nighttime SST are 68.42%, 69.99%, 56.57% and 52.80%, respectively. Though the TMI SST availability is nearly constant throughout the year, the variations of the AVHRR SST availability are much larger because of seasonal variations of cloud cover in NSCS. Validation of the satellite-derived SSTs shows that bias±standard deviation (STD) of AVHRR SST is −0.43±0.76 and −0.33±0.79 °C for daytime and nighttime, respectively, and bias±STD of TMI SSTs is 0.07±1.11 and 0.00±0.97 °C for daytime and nighttime, respectively. It is clear that AVHRR SSTs have significant regional biases of about −0.4 °C against the drifting buoy SSTs. Differences between satellite-derived−in situ SSTs are investigated in terms of the diurnal SST cycle. When satellite-derived wind speeds decrease down below 6 m/s, the satellite SSTs become higher than the corresponding in situ SSTs, which means that the SST difference (satellite SST−Buoy SST) is positive. This wind-speed dependence of the SST difference is consistent with the previous results, which have mentioned that low wind speed coupled with clear sky conditions (high surface solar radiation) enhance the diurnal SST amplitude and the bulk-skin temperature difference.     

Seasonal variability of SST fronts and winds on the southeastern continental shelf of Brazil

Fourteen years (September 2002 to August 2016) of high-resolution satellite observations of sea surface temperature (SST) data are used to describe the frontal pattern and frontogenesis on the southeastern continental shelf of Brazil. The daily SST fronts are obtained using an edge-detection algorithm, and the monthly frontal probability (FP) is subsequently calculated. High SST FPs are mainly distributed along the coast and decrease with distance from the coastline. The results from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decompositions reveal strong seasonal variability of the coastal SST FP with maximum (minimum) in the astral summer (winter). Wind plays an important role in driving the frontal activities, and high FPs are accompanied by strong alongshore wind stress and wind stress curl. This is particularly true during the summer, when the total transport induced by the alongshore component of upwelling-favorable winds and the wind stress curl reaches the annual maximum. The fronts are influenced by multiple factors other than wind forcing, such as the orientation of the coastline, the seafloor topography, and the meandering of the Brazil Current. As a result, there is a slight difference between the seasonality of the SST fronts and the wind, and their relationship was varying with spatial locations. The impact of the air-sea interaction is further investigated in the frontal zone, and large coupling coefficients are found between the crosswind (downwind) SST gradients and the wind stress curl (divergence). The analysis of the SST fronts and wind leads to a better understanding of the dynamics and frontogenesis off the southeastern continental shelf of Brazil, and the results can be used to further understand the air-sea coupling process at regional level.

     

Seasonal upwelling on the Western and Southern Shelves of the Gulf of Mexico

An 8-year database of sea surface temperature (SST), 7 years of Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) ocean color images, wind fields, and numerical model results are analyzed to identify regions and periods of coastal upwelling on the western and southern shelves of the Gulf of Mexico. On the seasonal scale, it is found that on the Tamaulipas, Veracruz, and southwestern Texas–Louisiana shelves there are upwelling favorable winds from April to August, when southeasterly winds are dominant and cold SST anomalies associated with upwelling are observed along their coasts. However, during summer, values of chlorophyll-a concentration are lower than those in autumn and winter, which are high due to advection of old bloom biological material from upstream. During winter, there is a cold front on the Tamaulipas shelf produced by advection of cold water from the Texas–Louisiana shelf and not due to upwelling. On the eastern Campeche Bank, persistent upwelling is observed due to favorable winds throughout the year with cold SST and large chlorophyll-a content along the inner shelf from May to September. On the Tamaulipas shelf, the summer upwelling delays the annual SST peak until September, while in most of the Gulf SST peaks in August. This difference is due to the end of the upwelling favorable wind conditions and the September seasonal current reversal.     

Summertime sea surface temperature fronts associated with upwelling around the Taiwan Bank

It is well known that upwelling of subsurface water is dominant around the Taiwan Bank (TB) and the Penghu (PH) Islands in the southern Taiwan Strait in summertime. Sea surface temperature (SST) frontal features and related phenomena around the TB upwelling and the PH upwelling were investigated using long-term AVHRR (1996–2005) and SeaWiFS (1998–2005) data received at the station of National Taiwan Ocean University. SST and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) images with a spatial resolution of 0.01° were generated and used for the monthly SST and Chl-a maps. SST fronts were extracted from each SST images and gradient magnitudes (GMs); the orientations were derived for the SST fronts. Monthly maps of cold fronts where the cooler SSTs were over a shallower bottom were produced from the orientation.