江西省县域人均粮食占有量的时空格局演变

综合运用样带、空间分析、地理探测器等方法分析1997—2010年江西省县域单元人均粮食占有量的时空格局演变及其形成机理。江西省县域人均粮食占有量空间集聚特征明显,呈较明显的圈层分布;全省大部分县域为余粮区,过半数的县域人均粮食有所提高,主要集中于赣中平原和赣北鄱阳湖周边地区。江西省县域人均粮食的空间格局主要受1997年人均粮食占有量与人均耕地面积的影响,仍对农业生产地理基础表现出较大的依赖,粮食政策、市场价格等对区域粮食生产亦有一定影响。样带趋势分析显示14年来全省县域人均粮食的东西向变化较南北向大;样带地理探测分析则有助于深入认识不同农业生产自然条件、不同经济发展水平等县域人均粮食驱动机制的差异。     

河南省县域人均粮食占有量空间格局演化

以人均粮食占有量为研究指标,以河南省126个县(市)为研究单元,通过空间自相关、重心移动、空间计量经济模型分析1990—2012年河南省人均粮食占有量的空间格局及其驱动机制。结果表明:河南省县域人均粮食占有量的空间分布存在一定的关联性,豫北中部、驻马店与信阳交汇处的东部地区形成人均粮食占有量高的集聚区域,豫西、豫西南山区形成人均粮食占有量低的集聚区域,并且随着时间推移,这种趋势不断加强;河南省粮食生产呈现不均衡分布,人均粮食占有量重心向东南方向移动。最后,通过空间计量经济模型SLM和SEM分析,结果得出,人均粮食生产空间格局与人均耕地面积、种植结构、历史发展基础呈显著正相关,与经济水平呈显著负相关。     

环渤海地区县域人均粮食占有量空间格局演化

应用GIS技术和空间自相关分析方法,分析了1990年以来环渤海地区县域人均粮食占有量的空间演化特征。结果表明,研究区县域人均粮食占有量空间自相关特征明显,高-高聚集和低-低聚集趋势增强;人均粮食增长更多表现出空间分布的随机性,地理集中趋势不明显;县域人均粮食占有量以上升为主,增长类型以总产低、快速增长型为主,粮食生产重心逐步向平原区集中,辽中和鲁西地区的粮食生产功能日益凸显,生态脆弱区和快速城镇化区的人均粮食占有量明显下降。最后,通过空间计量经济模型SLM和SEM的回归分析,探讨了县域人均粮食占有量格局演化的主要驱动力。     

气候变化和物候变动对东北黑土区农业生产的协同作用及未来粮食生产风险

东北黑土区是中国重要的粮食生产基地,也是中国气候变化最敏感的地区之一。然而,气候变化背景下东北黑土区气候及物候变化对农业生产力的综合影响并不清晰,未来农业生产风险评估的定量化程度不够,风险等级制定缺乏依据。本文借助遥感产品、气候资料和模拟数据等资料,综合运用多元线性回归、相关分析及干旱危险性指数等方法,探究东北黑土区作物物候动态及其气候响应特征,辨识气候与物候变化对农业生产的复合效应及未来可能风险。结果表明：① 2000—2017年东北黑土区29.76%的区域作物生长季开始期呈显著延后趋势,16.71%的区域作物生长季结束期呈提前态势,生长季开始期受气温的影响范围广,且滞后时间长;生长季结束期与前期气候变化关系更加密切,且带状差异性响应格局尤其明显。② 气候变化和物候期改变对作物生产的解释能力较生长季同期气候变化的解释能力增加了70.23%,解释面积扩大了85.04%。③ RCP8.5情景下东北黑土区粮食总产量呈现上升趋势,粮食生产风险表现出“南增北减”的演变特征,风险区面积不断扩大,全球温升2.0 ℃时,松嫩黑土亚区南部粮食减产量可能达到10%。研究有助于深入认识气候—物候—作物生产的关联机理及未来粮食生产风险,对制定气候变化应对策略,保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。     

中国粮食生产时空格局动态及其优化策略探析

新中国成立以来,中国粮食生产总体上呈现波动上升的趋势,在区域上粮食生产重心出现"北进中移"的态势,粮食产销格局已由"南粮北调"转变为"北粮南调".利用相关统计资料,简要分析了中国粮食生产变化趋势.从生产和消费角度,基于区域粮食产量差异和比较优势指数模型,对1990-2005年各地区粮食生产的区域变化进行了定量分析,其结果验证了我国粮食生产格局变动的总体特征.在全国人均粮食产量略有增加的背景下,部分省区人均粮食占有量有不同程度的降低,尤其是沿海经济发达省区的粮食生产呈现快速下降态势.为了保障国家粮食安全,应当在发掘各地区粮食生产潜力的同时,充分发挥粮食作物的区域比较优势,保障和稳定基地化的农业生产,着力提高粮食综合生产能力.     

粮食安全视角下中国历史气候变化影响与响应的过程与机理

基于现代全球变化研究中关于脆弱性和粮食安全的概念,把历史时期的粮食安全分解为粮食生产安全、粮食供给安全、粮食消费安全3个层次,以气候变化直接影响粮食生产水平为起点,分析气候变化-农(牧)业收成-食物的人均供给量-饥民-社会稳定性的驱动-响应链中的关键过程,指出气候变化影响的驱动-响应关系不能归结为简单的因果关系,诸如耕地、人口、政策、外来势力都会对气候变化的影响起着放大或抑制的作用。     

基于县域的生态脆弱区人均粮食时空格局变动及驱动力分析——以南水北调中线水源区为例

粮食问题是关系生态脆弱区发展的关键问题。在耕地面积有限、城市化加速、人口增长和生态保护急需加强的背景下,人均粮食的区域差异和驱动力研究对生态脆弱区生态安全具有重要意义。县级行政区是粮食生产和消费的基本单元,县域人均粮食变化的机制对于生态脆弱区发展至关重要。以南水北调中线水源区37个县为研究单位,借助ESDA和GWR模型,揭示南水北调中线水源区人均粮食区域差异的空间异质性及变化的驱动力。结果表明:2000~2011年,研究区县域人均粮食空间自相关特征明显,区域人均粮食变化的驱动因素呈现非均衡联动的局域性特征,单位面积产量对人均粮食变化的影响最大,耕地面积变动是第二大影响因素,都呈正相关。影响因素具有明显的平原向山区、亚热带向暖温带过渡的特征。因此,应结合南水北调中线水源区当前人均粮食的现状和驱动因子的效应机理,积极采取相应的有效措施,保障其粮食安全,促进区域生态保护。生态脆弱区自然生态环境复杂,在社会经济发展决策时,要充分考虑小尺度地理单元的特性,才能保证脆弱的生态环境能持续发展。     

气候变化背景下未来西藏粮食供需平衡状况预测

基于组合预测法、生产函数和笔者前期关于气候变化对西藏粮食产量定量影响的工作,对考虑气候变化影响的未来西藏县（区）级尺度粮食供需平衡状况进行预测。结果表明：① 西藏粮食产量较高的区域集中在一江两河等河谷地带,西藏粮食需求量较大的地区主要在人口较多的县市,未来肉类消费增加将会消耗更多的饲料用粮。② 西藏粮食供需平衡状况南北分异明显,南部河谷地区相对较好,北部羌塘高原较差。③ 当前西藏不能实现考虑口粮、饲料粮、工业用粮、种子用粮和损耗5种需求总和的粮食供需平衡,全区自给率为70.58%,2030年和2050年分别下降至62.59%和53.55%。虽然西藏总需求不能完全自给,但仍能保障口粮自给。④ 气候变化整体上对自给率为正面影响。到2030年和2050年,气候变化将使自治区粮食自给状况提升2.45%和2.09%。研究有助于掌握未来西藏粮食安全状况,规划农业布局,以期保障边疆粮食安全、促进高原农业可持续发展。     

中国县域人均粮食占有量的时空格局——基于户籍人口和常住人口的对比分析

依据中国第五次、第六次人口普查分区县的户籍人口、常住人口数据,借助空间自相关分析、重心曲线、空间分布图系等方法,对中国县域人均粮食占有量的时空格局及其变化强度进行对比分析。结果表明:① 中国人均粮食占有量存在明显的地域分异规律,东西分异和南北分异突出。两种人口统计口径下人均粮食占有量的全局和局部自相关特征显著,空间集聚趋势不断加强。高高集聚区向东北方向汇集,低低集聚区向东南方向汇集。② 两种人口统计口径下人均粮食占有量空间分布特征存在明显差异且有增大趋势,差别较大的县区主要集中在800 mm等降水量线以南,尤以华南区和西南区最为显著。③ 人均粮食占有量变化重心曲线呈“L”形,越向北增幅越大,越向东南减幅越大;基于分布图系、重心曲线将人均粮食占有量变化区域划分为高度增加区、中度增加区、低度增加区、基本不变区、低度减少区、中度减少区、高度减少区等7 种类型,人均粮食占有量变化格局在两种人口统计口径下存在明显差异。     

基于最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数的普安县粮食安全研究

地方粮食安全是国家粮食安全的重要组成部分,耕地是粮食生产的物质基础,耕地变化必将对粮食安全产生深远的影响。文章以贵州省普安县为例,运用最小人均耕地面积耕地压力指数模型测度粮食安全状况,分析了普安县1997-2010年间粮食安全和变化特点,并运用回归分析法、指数平滑模型,对其未来10年最小人均耕地面积以及耕地压力指数进行了粮食安全预测,同时提出了保障粮食安全的建议。     

Scenario-based assessment of future food security

This paper presents a scenario-based assessment of global future food security. To do that, the socio-economic and climate change scenarios were defined for the future and were linked to an integrated modeling framework. The crop yields simulated by the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and crop areas simulated by the crop choice decision model were combined to calculate the total food production and per capita food availability, which was used to represent the status of food availability and stability. The per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) simulated by IFPSIM model was used to reflect the situation of food accessibility and affordability. Based on these two indicators, the future food security status was assessed at a global scale over a period of approximately 20 years, starting from the year 2000. The results show that certain regions such as South Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future as both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Low food production associated with poverty is the determining factor to starvation in these regions, and more efforts are needed to combat hunger in terms of future actions. Other regions such as China, most Eastern European countries and most South American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation.     

基于空间模型的全球粮食安全评价

This paper presents a scenario-based assessment of global future food security. To do that,the socio-economic and climate change scenarios were defined for the future and were linked to an integrated modeling framework. The crop yields simulated by the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and crop areas simulated by the crop choice decision model were combined to calculate the total food production and per capita food availability,which was used to represent the status of food availability and stability. The per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) simulated by IFPSIM model was used to reflect the situation of food accessibility and affordability. Based on these two indicators,the future food security status was assessed at a global scale over a period of approximately 20 years,starting from the year 2000. The results show that certain regions such as South Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future as both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Low food production associated with poverty is the determining factor to starvation in these regions,and more efforts are needed to combat hunger in terms of future actions. Other regions such as China,most Eastern European countries and most South American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation.     

温室气体排放评价指标及其定量分析

温室气体排放的科学定量评价是建立国际温室气体减排框架、确定各国合理的减排责任、部署国际减排行动的基础。通过系统阐述目前国际上通行的温室气体排放的主要评价指标(国别排放指标、人均排放指标、GDP 排放指标和国际贸易排放指标等), 并通过定量评价剖析这些评价指标的优缺点及其局限性。讨论了发展科学、公平和易于广泛接受的新评价指 标的可能性。基于可持续发展的公平性原则, 提出了“工业化累积人均排放量” 的新指标, 以客观定量评价世界各国工业化以来温室气体历史累积排放量的当代人均量。新指标的结果显示, 英美等老牌工业化国家的工业化累积人均排放量远高于全球平均水平和发展中国家的 水平。还提出并讨论了人均单位GDP 排放量、消费排放量、生存排放量等潜在的评价指标。     

河北省人均耕地警戒值测算

阐述人均耕地警戒值的计量方法、测算思路及其测算步骤 ,并测算了河北省及其各市的人均耕地警戒值 ,指出必须保护耕地 ,实现耕地总量动态平衡。     

A quantitative comparison and analysis on the assessment indicators of greenhouse gases emission

Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) emission and related global warming issues have been the focus of international communities for some time. The international communities have reached a consensus to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions and restrain global warming. The quantitative assessment of anthropogenic GHG emissions is the scientific basis to find out the status of global GHG emission, identify the commitments of each country, and arrange the international efforts of GHG emission reduction. Currently the main assessment indicators for GHG emission include national indicator, per capita indicator, per GDP indicator, and international trade indicator etc. The introduction to the above indicators is put forward and their merits and demerits are analyzed. Based on the GHG emission data from the World Resource Institute (WRI), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), the results of each indictor are calculated for the world, for the eight G8 industrialized countries (USA, UK, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Russia), and the five major developing countries including China, Brazil, India, South Africa and Mexico. The paper points out that all these indicators have some limitations. The Indicator of Industrialized Accumulative Emission per Capita (IAEC) is put forward as the equitable indicator to evaluate the industrialized historical accumulative emission per capita of every country. IAEC indicator can reflect the economic achievement of GHG emission enjoyed by the current generations in every country and their commitments. The analysis of IAEC indicates that the historical accumulative emission per capita in industrialized countries such as UK and USA were typically higher than those of the world average and the developing countries. Emission indicator per capita per GDP, consumptive emission indicator and survival emission indicator are also put forward and discussed in the paper.     

新疆维吾尔自治区能源消耗与经济增长关系的实证研究

根据新疆维吾尔自治区1952～2007年主要年份能源消耗的统计数据以及相应年份人均GDP统计数据,分析了单位GDP能源消耗与人均GDP之间的相关关系,选取相关能耗指标（煤炭消耗量、石油消耗量、天然气消耗量、电力消耗量）,建立两者之间的计量模型,并在此基础上分析单位GDP能源消耗与人均GDP增长的关系。经研究发现,新疆单位GDP能源消耗与人均GDP增长呈类似于EKC的倒U型曲线,且当今曲线已过转折点,单位GDP能源消耗随人均GDP增长将持续下降。因此,有必要采取有力措施进一步降低单位GDP能源消耗,倡导＂循环经济＂、＂绿色GDP＂等,使曲线走势向良性方向发展。     

温室气体排放评价指标及其定量分析

Anthropogenic greenhouse gases （GHG） emission and related global warming issues have been the focus of international communities for some time. The international communities have reached a consensus to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions and restrain global warming. The quantitative assessment of anthropogenic GHG emissions is the scientific basis to find out the status of global GHG emission, identify the commitments of each country, and arrange the international efforts of GHG emission reduction. Currently the main assessment indicators for GHG emission include national indicator, per capita indicator, per GDP indicator, and international trade indicator etc. The introduction to the above indi- cators is put forward and their merits and demerits are analyzed. Based on the GHG emission data from the World Resource Institute （WRI）, the US Energy Information Administration （EIA）, and the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center （CDIAC）, the results of each indictor are calculated for the world, for the eight G8 industrialized countries （USA, UK, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Russia）, and the five major developing countries including China, Brazil, India, South Africa and Mexico. The paper points out that all these indicators have some limitations. The Indicator of Industrialized Accumulative Emission per Capita （IAEC） is put forward as the equitable indicator to evaluate the industrialized historical accumulative emission per capita of every country. IAEC indicator can reflect the economic achievement of GHG emission enjoyed by the current generations in every country and their commitments. The analysis of IAEC indicates that the historical accumulative emission per capita in indus- trialized countries such as UK and USA were typically higher than those of the world average and the developing countries. Emission indicator per capita per GDP, consumptive emission indicator and survival emission indicator are also put forward and discussed in the paper.     

中国粮食安全脆弱区的识别及空间分异特征

从粮食获取能力和粮食安全保障阈值的角度, 综合考虑粮食供需平衡、粮食安全储备、 经济补偿能力等因素, 构造综合评价指标-粮食安全保障的财政压力水平, 以粮食安全保障 费用不超过地方财政收入水平的25%作为可接受水平, 共识别出6 个不同类型的粮食安全区。 在没有重大灾害事件发生和现有粮食播种面积不变的前提下, 全国有14.5%的县(市) (1 级和3 级粮食安全区) 能够通过粮食生产或者经济补偿能力保障小康水平的粮食安全。全国29.4% 的县(市) 属于2 级粮食安全区, 其中57%的地区是中国的主要余粮区, 约占全国主要余粮区 中的72%, 因财政收入低、人口密度大, 不能负担庞大的小康水平粮食安全储备费用。中国 粮食安全最脆弱的地区(6 级区) 占全国县(市) 总数的30%, 不具备温饱水平粮食生产能力和 经济补偿能力, 主要包括两类地区： ① 夏季季风区边缘地带的农牧交错带及秦岭地区, 以及 南方贫困的丘陵地区属于“资源型粮食短缺地区”; ② 广西、广东南部以及东部沿海地区等 富裕地区属于“结构性粮食短缺地区”, 过低的粮食自给率已影响到粮食安全应急保障能力。     

我国人均粮食变化的地理研究

人均粮食占有量是反映粮食供给水平的重要指标，本文分析了我国人均粮食占有量变化的阶段和地理特征，并探讨了其与粮食增产的关系，对因地制宜调控人粮关系有一定参考价值。