Towards the use of catchment geomorphology in flood frequency predictions

A further development of a topography-based model of catchment hydrology (TOPMODEL) is described and applied to the problem of predicting flood frequency characteristics. The model can simulate infiltration excess, saturation excess, and subsurface runoff contributions to peak flows. Catchment geomorphology plays a central role in predicting the nature of the hydrological response. Using stochastic rainfall and initial condition inputs based on measured data, the model satisfactorily reproduces the mean hourly flow flood frequency growth curve for the Wye catchment, but not the mean number of peaks greater than 3mm h^?1 each year. Suggestions for further improvements are made.     

Using the TCEV distribution function with systematic and non-systematic data in a regional flood frequency analysis

Due to the social and economic implications, flood frequency analysis must be done with the highest precision. For this reason, the most suitable statistical model must be selected, and the maximum amount of information must be used. Floods in Mediterranean rivers can be produced by two different mechanisms, which forces the use of a non-traditional distribution like the TCEV. The information can be increased by using additional non-systematic data, or with a regional analysis, or both. Through the statistical gain concept, it has been shown that in most cases the use of additional non-systematic information can decrease the quantile estimation error in about 50%. In a regional analysis, the␣benefit of additional information in one station, is propagated to the rest of␣the␣stations with only a small decrease with respect to the at-site equivalent analysis.     

Using the TCEV distribution function with systematic and non-systematic data in a regional flood frequency analysis

Due to the social and economic implications, flood frequency analysis must be done with the highest precision. For this reason, the most suitable statistical model must be selected, and the maximum amount of information must be used. Floods in Mediterranean rivers can be produced by two different mechanisms, which forces the use of a non-traditional distribution like the TCEV. The information can be increased by using additional non-systematic data, or with a regional analysis, or both. Through the statistical gain concept, it has been shown that in most cases the use of additional non-systematic information can decrease the quantile estimation error in about 50%. In a regional analysis, the␣benefit of additional information in one station, is propagated to the rest of␣the␣stations with only a small decrease with respect to the at-site equivalent analysis.     

Detection of trends in magnitude and frequency of flood peaks across Europe

This study analyses the differences in significant trends in magnitude and frequency of floods detected in annual maximum flood (AMF) and peak over threshold (POT) flood peak series, for the period 1965–2005. Flood peaks are identified from European daily discharge data using a baseflow-based algorithm and significant trends in the AMF series are compared with those in the POT series, derived for six different exceedence thresholds. The results show that more trends in flood magnitude are detected in the AMF than in the POT series and for the POT series more significant trends are detected in flood frequency than in flood magnitude. Spatially coherent patterns of significant trends are detected, which are further investigated by stratifying the results into five regions based on catchment and hydro-climatic characteristics. All data and tools used in this study are open-access and the results are fully reproducible.     

Using lake sediment archives to improve understanding of flood magnitude and frequency: Recent extreme flooding in northwest UK

We present the first quantitative reconstruction of palaeofloods using lake sediments for the UK and show that for a large catchment in NW England the cluster of devastating floods from 1990 to present is without precedent in this 558-year palaeo-record. Our approach augments conventional flood magnitude and frequency (FMF) analyses with continuous lake sedimentary data to provide a longer-term perspective on flood magnitude recurrence probabilities. The 2009 flood, the largest in >558 years, had a recurrence interval larger (1:2,200 year) than revealed by conventional flood estimation using shorter duration gauged single station records (1:1,700 year). Flood-rich periods are non-stationary in their correlation with climate indices, but the 1990-2018 cluster is associated with warmer Northern Hemisphere Temperatures and positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Monitored records rarely capture the largest floods and our palaeoflood series shows, for this catchment, such omissions undermine evaluations of future risk. Our approach provides an exemplar of how to derive centennial palaeoflood reconstructions from lakes coupled well with their catchments around the world. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

1995年太湖流域东南地区的洪涝灾害

太湖流域继１９９１、１９９３年大水后,１９９５年东南地区再次遭受大水。太湖最高水位达４．３２ｍ,为建国以来的第６位。流域东南地区的浙西、杭嘉湖、淀泖及上海浦东、浦西等地普降大到暴雨,部分地区水位超过大水的１９９１、１９９３年,杭嘉湖地区水位超过有记载以来的最高水位。德清水位高达６．４３ｍ,超过记载最高水位６．４０ｍ;嘉兴水位达４．４０ｍ,超记载最高水位的４．３８ｍ;王江泾水位高达４．３８ｍ,超记载     

Applicability of Wakeby distribution in flood frequency analysis: a case study for eastern Australia

Parametric method of flood frequency analysis (FFA) involves fitting of a probability distribution to the observed flood data at the site of interest. When record length at a given site is relatively longer and flood data exhibits skewness, a distribution having more than three parameters is often used in FFA such as log‐Pearson type 3 distribution. This paper examines the suitability of a five‐parameter Wakeby distribution for the annual maximum flood data in eastern Australia. We adopt a Monte Carlo simulation technique to select an appropriate plotting position formula and to derive a probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) test statistic for Wakeby distribution. The Weibull plotting position formula has been found to be the most appropriate for the Wakeby distribution. Regression equations for the PPCC tests statistics associated with the Wakeby distribution for different levels of significance have been derived. Furthermore, a power study to estimate the rejection rate associated with the derived PPCC test statistics has been undertaken. Finally, an application using annual maximum flood series data from 91 catchments in eastern Australia has been presented. Results show that the developed regression equations can be used with a high degree of confidence to test whether the Wakeby distribution fits the annual maximum flood series data at a given station. The methodology developed in this paper can be adapted to other probability distributions and to other study areas. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Study of the flood control scheduling scheme for the Three Gorges Reservoir in a catastrophic flood

The Three Gorges Project is the world's largest water conservancy project. According to the design standards for the 1,000‐year flood, flood diversion areas in the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River must be utilized to ensure the safety of the Jingjiang area and the city of Wuhan. However, once these areas are used, the economic and life loss in these areas may be very great. Therefore, it is vital to reduce this loss by developing a scheme that reduces the use of the flood diversion areas through flood regulation by the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), under the premise of ensuring the safety of the Three Gorges Dam. For a 1,000‐year flood on the basis of a highly destructive flood in 1954, this paper evaluates scheduling schemes in which flood diversion areas are or are not used. The schemes are simulated based on 2.5‐m resolution reservoir topography and an optimized model of dynamic capacity flood regulation. The simulation results show the following. (a) In accord with the normal flood‐control regulation discharge, the maximum water level above the dam should be not more than 175 m, which ensures the safety of the dam and reservoir area. However, it is necessary to utilize the flood diversion areas within the Jingjiang area, and flood discharge can reach 2.81 billion m³. (b) In the case of relying on the TGR to impound floodwaters independently rather than using the flood diversion areas, the maximum water level above the dam reaches 177.35 m, which is less than the flood check level of 180.4 m to ensure the safety of the Three Gorges Dam. The average increase of the TGR water level in the Chongqing area is not more than 0.11 m, which indicates no significant effect on the upstream reservoir area. Comparing the various scheduling schemes, when the flood diversion areas are not used, it is believed that the TGR can execute safe flood control for a 1,000‐year flood, thereby greatly reducing flood damage.     

Drainage basin characteristics,their selection,derivation and analysis for a flood study of the British isles

A large data bank of morphometric, cover and climatic data for over a thousand drainage basins of all sizes in the British Isles was set up by the N.E.R.C. Flood Study. The paper describes the selection of these ‘independent’ variables, their degree of correlation, their portrayal of regional variability in the British Isles and their success as predictors of flood variables. The internal adjustment of drainage basins is confirmed, as is the basic physical division of Britain.     

水体营养物及其响应指标基准制定过程中建立参照状态的方法—以典型浅水湖泊太湖为例

建立参照状态是水体营养物及其响应指标基准制订的关键性工作,建立参照状态的方法主要有时间参考状态法、空间参考状态法、频率法、沉积物历史反演法和预测或外推模型法等,以我国东部湖区典型水体太湖为例,主要应用频率分析法建立了太湖营养物总氮、总磷及响应指标叶绿素a、塞氏深度基准的参照状态,并用时间参考状态法和沉积物历史反演法进行了总氮和总磷参照状态值的验证,综合研究分析显示太湖营养物总磷、总氮的参照状态值应为0.03mg/L、0.6mg/L;响应指标叶绿素a、塞氏深度的参照状态值应为0.004mg/L、0.70m.研究结果旨在为我国水体营养物及其响应指标基准、标准的研究与制订以及我国水体富营养化的控制提供理论和方法借鉴.     

Nutrients and organic matter in the surface sediment of a submerged macrophyte zone in a eutrophic lake:Implications for lake management

Little is known about the distribution and risk levels of nutrients and organic matter(OM) in the surface sediment of shallow submerged macrophyte-dominated lakes. In the current study, sixty surface sediment samples were collected from Xukou Bay, a typical submerged macrophyte-dominated zone in Lake Taihu, China. A 60-day degradation experiment of Potamogeton malaianus, a dominant species in the bay,was done in the laboratory. The results demonstrated that the ranges of total nitrogen(TN) and t...     

复杂河道洪水预报系统研究——以淮河王家坝至小柳巷区间流域为例

随着社会经济的快速发展,洪水灾害造成的损失日益严重.洪水预报作为一项重要的防洪非工程措施,对防洪、抗洪工作起着至关重要的作用.淮河洪水危害的严重性和洪水演进过程的复杂性使得淮河洪水预报系统的研究长期以来受到高度重视.本文以王家坝至小柳巷区间流域为例,以河道洪水演算为主线,采用新安江三水源模型进行子流域降雨径流预报,概化具有行蓄洪区的干流河道,进行支流与干流、行蓄洪区与干流的洪水汇流耦合计算,采用实时更新的基于多元回归的方法确定水位流量关系,并以上游站点降雨径流预报模型提供的流量作为上边界条件、以下游站点的水位流量关系作为下边界条件,结合行蓄洪调度模型,建立具有行蓄洪区的河道洪水预报系统,再与基于K-最近邻(KNN)的非参数实时校正模型耦合,建立淮河中游河道洪水预报系统.采用多年资料模拟取得了较好的预报效果,并以2003和2007年大洪水为例进行检验,模拟结果精度较高,也证明了所建预报系统的合理性和适用性.     

太湖流域旱涝与南海海温异常遥相关的历史见证

我国南海海温异常对长江中下游夏季旱涝的遥相关,已被许多实测资料研究所证实。太湖流域作为长江中下游的一部分,历史时期是否也存在相应的遥相关,通过大量历史资料分析,得出了肯定的回答。在此基础上,联系历史时期和实测资料时期的其它旱涝因素分析,建立了太湖流域旱涝变化模型。     

Bivariate flood frequency analysis using the copula function: a case study of the Litija station on the Sava River

As an alternative to the commonly used univariate flood frequency analysis, copula frequency analysis can be used. In this study, 58 flood events at the Litija gauging station on the Sava River in Slovenia were analysed, selected based on annual maximum discharge values. Corresponding hydrograph volumes and durations were considered. Different bivariate copulas from three families were applied and compared using different statistical, graphical and upper tail dependence tests. The parameters of the copulas were estimated using the method of moments with the inversion of Kendall's tau. The Gumbel–Hougaard copula was selected as the most appropriate for the pair of peak discharge and hydrograph volume (Q‐V). The same copula was also selected for the pair hydrograph volume and duration (V‐D), and the Student‐t copula was selected for the pair of peak discharge and hydrograph duration (Q‐D). The differences among most of the applied copulas were not significant. Different primary, secondary and conditional return periods were calculated and compared, and some relationships among them were obtained. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes in diet and niche breadth of a small fish species in response to the flood pulse in a Neotropical floodplain lake

This study tested the hypothesis that the flood pulse affects the diet composition and the niche breadth of Moenkhausia forestii, a small characid fish inhabiting the littoral zone of lakes. To this end, we compared the diet composition (at the population and individual levels) between hydrological periods (high and low water phases) in a floodplain lake of the Upper Paraná River. PERMANOVA revealed differences in the diet between periods (pseudoF_1,38 = 8.5; p < 0.001), with predominant consumption of chironomid larvae and Ephemeroptera (aquatic resources) in the low-water period and an increase in the contribution of terrestrial resources (Hymenoptera, Coleoptera, and Orthoptera) during the high-water period. Based on the PERMDISP results, inter-individual variability in M. forestii diet also differed between periods (F_1,38 = 5.80; p = 0.02), with higher values during the high-water period resulting in a dietary niche expansion. During the low-water period, we observed the dominance of chironomid larvae in the diets of most individuals, resulting in lower inter-individual variability and thus narrower niche breadth. The diet of M. forestii was affected by the flood pulse at both the population and individual levels. The most important difference was found in the origin of food items; during the low-water period, the diet consisted mainly of aquatic resources, and during the high-water period, there was a large contribution of terrestrial resources. This variation is related to the increased availability of allochthonous resources in the high period, when terrestrial areas are flooded by the overflow of the river, thereby increasing the input of resources into the aquatic environment. The increased availability of food resources during this period allowed the expansion of the trophic niche of M. forestii, accompanied by the highest richness (19 items) and the highest evenness of food items. Our findings demonstrated that the flood pulse affected the composition of the M. forestii diet at both the population and individual levels. These results support the importance of the flood pulse, which connects aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, in providing food resources for fish.     

湖泊沉积物DNA在气候环境变化和生态系统响应研究中的应用

随着气候与生态问题的不断涌现,气候环境变化与生态系统响应研究的重要性日益凸显,而传统方法逐渐难以满足深入研究的需要.现代分子生物技术的快速发展使针对湖泊沉积物的DNA分析逐渐被引入相关研究中,有效弥补了传统研究方法的不足,为研究者提供了理解过去气候和环境变化、生态系统响应的新视角.湖泊沉积物中的DNA蕴藏着丰富的生物群...     

A model approach for in- and outflow calculation of upper lake constance: —An investigation of a 60 year time span and observations about the flood of 1999

The revised empirical model for in- and outflow calculation of Upper Lake Constance has provided satisfying results supported by measured values. The given model was implemented to simulate total water inputs of the lake during the period from 1941 to 2000 with emphasis on the flood conditions of 1999. Analysis of annual water input development reveals a tendency toward slight increases until the 1960s. Thereafter, a reduction in inputs can be noted. This trend probably continues to hold true to present. Weather conditions of given individual years have caused distinct fluctuations to the water budget.Unusual meteorological conditions led to extreme flooding in early May of 1999. Daily water inputs of up to 200 mio m³ generated the highest water levels ever observed for this time of the year. Continual extraordinarily high water inputs occurring from February until July and then again from September until the end of 1999 resulted in the second largest annual total water input recorded since 1941.     

Use of a derived distribution approach for flood prediction in poorly gauged basins: A case study in Italy

A derived distribution approach is developed for flood prediction in poorly gauged basins. This couples information on the expected storm scaling, condensed into Depth Duration Frequency curves, with soil abstractions modeled using Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method and hydrological response through Nash’s Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph. A simplified framework is given to evaluate critical duration for flood design. Antecedent moisture condition distribution is included. The method is tested on 16 poorly gauged Mediterranean watersheds in Tyrrhenian Liguria, North Western Italy, belonging to a homogeneous hydrological regions. The derived flood distribution is compared to the regional one, currently adopted for flood design. The evaluation of Curve Number is critical for peak flood evaluation and needs to be carefully carried out. This can be done including local Annual Flood Series data in the estimation of the derived distribution, so gathering the greatest available information. However, Curve Number influence decreases for the highest return periods. When considerable return periods are required for flood design and few years of data are available, the derived distribution provides more accurate estimates than the approach based on single site distribution fitting. A strategy based on data availability for application of the approach is then given. The proposed methodology contributes to the ongoing discussion concerning PUB (Prediction in Ungauged Basins) decade of the IAHS association and can be used by researchers and practitioners for those sites where no flood data, or only a few, are available, provided precipitation data and land use information are at hand.     

Morphological response of a barrier island system on a catastrophic event: the AD 1634 North Sea storm

The AD 1634 North Sea storm is one of the most catastrophic storms along the Wadden Sea coast of Denmark. In this study we show how pre‐1634 storm morphology exerted a strong control on the resulting post‐storm coastal morphology. Erosional responses associated with the storm were barrier breaching, dune scarping and shoreface erosion and accretionary responses were washover deposition, shoreface healing and barrier‐island formation. Local sediment sources appeared to have a particularly strong influence on post‐storm coastal evolution and allowed a very rapid formation of a barrier shoal which resulted in several kilometres of coastal progradation. Sediment budgets suggest that formation of the barrier shoal was possible, but the sediment transport rates in the decades after the 1634 storm, must have been two to three times higher than present‐day rates. The study demonstrates that catastrophic storms are capable of moving large amounts of sediments over relatively short time‐periods and can create barrier shoals, whereas moderate storms mostly rework the shoal or barrier and create more local erosion and/or landward migration. Catastrophic storms substantially influence long‐term and large‐scale coastal evolution, and storms may positively contribute to the sediment budget and promote coastal progradation in coastal areas with longshore sediment convergence. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

结构地震反应的频域精细传递矩阵法

传统的传递矩阵法需要对控制微分方程进行求解,获得相应的传递矩阵。公式繁琐、复杂。文中提出将传递矩阵法与精细积分法中的指数矩阵运算技巧结合起来,在频域内对结构进行动力分析。与传统的传递矩阵法相比,无需对微分方程进行求解,只需按照迭代公式进行计算,就可以得到所需要的传递矩阵。这种方法公式简单,理论上可实现任意精度,而且计算效率较高,能够快速、高精度的进行结构的地震反应分析。算例显示了精细传递矩阵法的有效性。